A Few More in the Mix

It feels like every year, around this time, I start getting a little nervous.

However Rafael Nadal has done during the clay court season -- whether like in 2005 and 2008 and 2013 he won basically every event on dirt he played, or like in 2015 or even last year, he won barely any -- you start to wonder about his chances to take home the big prize at Roland Garros.

And while he often seems to pull things together when they count the most, each year a couple pretenders start cropping up that might just be able to throw a wrench into his plans.

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🏆🇪🇸@AlexZverev wins his fourth ATP Masters 1000 title 👏 #MMOPENpic.twitter.com/6zabemSOls

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 9, 2021

The most obvious one this week was Alexander Zverev, who captured his second title in Madrid and his fourth Masters championship with a three set win over Matteo Berrettini on Sunday. And while my acknowledgement of his win comes begrudgingly, you have to admit his performance on court was pretty impressive. After taking out Monte Carlo giant-killer Daniel Evans, he stunned Nadal in straight sets, his third straight win over the world #2, and went on to beat two-time French runner-up Dominic Thiem in the semis, avenging that OHSOCLOSE loss to him in last year's U.S. Open final. While he's had a couple early losses on clay before this week, his performance in Spain might have done a lot to erase the memory of those upsets.

But he wasn't the only one to stick out. Runner-up Berrettini has really been showing me he's deserving of his top ten ranking over the last few weeks, first claiming the title in Belgrade and this week taking out tough opponents like Fabio Fognini and Cristian Garin. In the first Masters final of his career, he took the first set from Zverev and kept things tight in the back half too. While I can't say I was expecting him to come out the winner, I was encouraged by the fight he showed and feel there might be a few more top-ten wins coming up soon in the future for him.

And you have to respect the showing we saw from Dominic Thiem, who we haven't seen in action since mid-March and who'd been playing a much quieter season than his breakout last year. After losing early at the Australian Open and then battling through various injuries, there was certainly a big question mark over his head for Madrid. But he performed admirably, taking out a talented Alex de Minaur and even a surprisingly strong John Isner, who'd stunned Andrey Rublev in the third round. While Thiem did lose in straight to Zverev in the semis, it was good to see he seemed to have found his footing again. And, of course, we know that, had this been a best of five match, there's no telling what could have happened.

Maybe the player who made the biggest case for himself this week was young Casper Ruud, who barreled onto the scene early last year and hasn't let up since. While the 22-year-old hasn't added to his trophy case this year, he has scored wins over Fabio Fognini, Pablo Carreño Busta and Diego Schwartzman. And in Madrid, he added to that list, stunning Monte Carol champ Stefanos Tsitipas in straight sets on his way to the semis. Though he lost to Berrettini there, he did earn himself a career-high ranking at #16 in the world. And the way he's playing, there's no reason to believe he isn't going even higher.

So do any of these guys have a real shot at dethroning the king once we get to Paris? Well, we know Nadal is not going to give up his crown easily, whatever happens in the weeks leading up to Roland Garros. But one day soon there is bound to be a changing of the guards, and it sure looks like there are plenty of players more than ready to take up the reins.

A Reversal of Fortune

Remember a couple months ago when Aryna Sabalenka came back from losing ten straight games to Sara Sorribes Tormo not just to win the next twelve and the match, but to claim the singles trophy in Ostrava?

Well if that didn't teach us that the 23-year-old can turn around any situation, then perhaps her performance at the Mutua Madrid Open over the last ten days will.

Aryna Sabalenka wins her 10th career title and 1st clay title @MutuaMadridOpen and will rise to No.4 in the rankings on Monday.

Defeats Barty 60 36 64 to hand the No.1 her 1st loss on red clay since 2019 Rome. Avenges her last two losses to Barty in Stuttgart, Miami. pic.twitter.com/5JMyDm6YTU

— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) May 8, 2021

Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised to see the Belorusian powering through her draws. That recovery in the Czech Republic was part of a fifteen match winstreak between last October and this January. And while Sabalenka has had a couple of losses since, they've mostly come at the hands of truly formidable opponents -- yes there was the surprise upset by Aussie Cinderella Kaia Kanepi, but there were also real battles against the supremely talented Garbiñe Muguruza, Serena Williams, and two straight versus #1 Ashleigh Barty.

Those losses to Barty were important ones. The first this year came in the quarterfinals of Miami, which the Australian would go on to win, cementing her position at the top of the sport and quieting doubters, myself included, who questioned whether she should remain there without having played for nearly a year. The second came in the Stuttgart final, which squelched those who thought Naomi Osaka, laying claim to two Grand Slam titles but having little impact off the hardcourts so far, was more deserving. Had either of those matches gone Sabalenka's way, those doubts about Barty might still exist -- and today's result may not have so sweet.

But as it stood, it was the two winningest players on tour who made it to the final at the Caja Magica. Sabalenka, with 23 victories this season going into Saturday's match, had notched wins over rising star Jessica Pegula and doubles partner Elise Mertens on her way. Meanwhile Barty, with 25, got past the other defending Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek, three-time Madrid champion Petra Kvitova, and surprise semifinalist Paula Badosa. And both had the opportunity to make a real statement as we head into the final stretch of the clay season.

Sabalenka came out of the gate swinging, too, running away with the first set in less than 25 minutes, but as with their other recent matches, Barty wasn't ready to go down without a fight. After trading breaks to start the second, she was able to close it out and force a decider for the title. And while it stayed close in that final set, Sabalenka stunningly broke her opponent at love in the ninth game and then closed it out.

The win earned Sabalenka her tenth career title and her first on clay, and it'll help push her to a career high ranking of #4 in the world, passing Sofia Kenin. It also ended a 16-match win streak Barty had on red clay and a 10-match streak against top ten opponents.

Of course, the real question will come down to what happens on the dirt of Paris -- Sabalenka, for all her strength and ability against the top players in the sport, has never made it past the fourth round at a Major, never past the third at the French Open. I've long thought that that was a streak aching to be broken, and maybe this is the time for it to happen.

After all, if anyone can turn things around, it certainly seems to be Aryna Sabalenka.

Beating the Best

Winning a tennis tournament is always a great feat, but a title might mean slightly more when you have to face the toughest challenges yourself. All the heavy hitters were out in force, no one cleared the road for you, and you still managed to defy the odds and bring home the trophy.

And not only did this week's champions in Madrid manage to add a little more bling to their mantels, but they had to get through the very best the sport has to offer to do it.

There were lots of upsets in the women's draw, maybe unsurprisingly, with former French Open Juniors champion Simona Halep losing her opener to Alizé Cornet and a still-struggling Genie Bouchard building a 6-0 lead over Barbora Strycova before falling in three sets. But the biggest shockers were saved for the final two rounds -- two-time Major winner Svetlana Kuznetsova, now barely in the top thirty, faced one big threat after another, dispatching in turn Ekaterina Makarova, Garbiñe Muguruza, Sam Stosur and Lucie Safarova before stunning defending Roland Garros champ Maria Sharapova in the semis. They were her first top-ten wins of the season and got her to her first final since Washington last year.

There she met a woman who'd been equally stunning this week -- Petra Kvitova, though still ranked #4 in the world, hasn't played a lot this year, taking March off to recover from a hectic 2014 schedule. But she hit the ground running in Madrid -- after dropping her first set to qualifier Olga Govortsova, she rebounded quickly for the win and cruised the rest of the week. In the semis the young Czech stunned Serena Williams in straight sets, handing the top-ranked player her first official loss of the season and scoring her first ever win over the nineteen-time Slam champion. Playing in the final again for the first time since 2011, Kvitova was on-point -- she lost only three games to Kuznetsova, needing just over an hour to earn her second title of the year. And as much as the trophy must mean -- it's probably the road she took to get there that means even more.

The same can be said on the men's side, where the undisputed King of Clay was out to defend his crown. Rafael Nadal may have come to Madrid ranked fourth in the world, a lower spot than what he's been used to, and he may have been hoping to turn around what's been a relatively disappointing season so far. But that doesn't make him any less of a force on this surface. And with a couple weak-for-him showings in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, it felt like his run in Madrid carried a little extra meaning. And he looked more than motivated at the outset -- easily handling a potential test from Grigor Dimitrov and then taking out Tomas Berdych in the semis, he seemed ready to add clay court title #47 to his trophy chest, which would get him that much closer to Guillermo Vilas's record forty-nine.

But Andy Murray had other plans -- fresh off, astonishingly, his first clay court title last week, the second seed was focused on keeping his streak going. He won a tight rematch against Munich runner-up Philipp Kohlschreiber in his opener, but didn't drop a set again, losing serve just one time in his next three matches, against such formidable opponents as Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori. He faced a much tougher task against Rafa, of course -- the decorated Spaniard had only lost a handful of clay court finals in his career. But the Scot wasn't preturbed, and on Sunday he kept his cool under pressure, breaking his opponent three times and delivering him a straight set loss in less than ninety minutes. To back up his maiden Munich crown with a Masters-level win over such a formidable foe, might just put Murray on a path we didn't expect from him so long ago.

This weekend's champions may have higher-profile trophies on their shelves, but by vanquishing the very best in the field to score victories in Madrid, they may have accomplished something even more important. And that could just further shake things up when even bigger titles are on the line in just a few weeks' time.

Now, That's More Like It

Things got a little crazy there the last couple weeks, didn't they?

Across the board during the early clay court season, we saw long-standing champions fall and new victors crowned -- many capturing their maiden trophies, others coming seeming to come back from the grave, and, even more surprising, some long-dominating forces falling by the wayside. But this week at the Mutua Madrid Open, order seemed to be restored in the tennis world. And with just a few weeks left before the start of the French Open, it might be the perfect time for that to happen.

That's not to say everything went as planned. A still-injured Serena Williams, champion here two years in a row, pulled out of her quarterfinal against Petra Kvitova and Na Li, whose first Major breakthrough came on this surface three years ago, gave up her lead to Maria Sharapova and fell in a two-and-a-half hour battle. Ultimately the Russian, at her lowest ranking since 2011, was able to fight her say to the final and faced off against risen star Simona Halep, playing in her eighth final in twelve months. The Romanian upstart came out swinging, too, taking advantage of weak serving by her opponent for a 6-1 first set. But Sharapova was able to right herself in the second, losing just six points on serve to force a decider. She took control there too, holding onto an early break and closing out the match in just under two hours. It was her second title of the year and went one better than her performance last year, pushing her back to #7 in the world. It's still well off her career best, of course, but it certainly puts her back on the track we're used to seeing her on. And it could give her just the confidence she needs if she's going to make a real play for another Roland Garros title.

Rafael Nadal certainly has more of those trophies than anyone conceivably needs, but after his performance early this part of the season, his potential to take home trophy #9 was coming into question. He wasn't losing to top-tier players like Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer, but to compatriots like David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro -- the latter of whom he'd never lost to before. In Madrid, though, he put the applecart back on its wheels -- with Nole withdrawing with injury and Fed skipping the event to have a couple more twins, Nadal was the clear favorite here. To make things easier Stanislas Wawrinka, who bested him in the Melbourne final, was stunned by young Austrian Dominic Thiem in his opener, and even Andy Murray, always a threat but sort of struggling this year, fell in straight sets to Barcelona finalist Santiago Giraldo. Ultimately Rafa faced off Sunday against a surging Kei Nishikori, whose run to the final hoisted him to a career high #9 ranking. The Japanese star, a winner in Barca and Memphis already this year, had upset Milos Raonic and David Ferrer this week and even took the first set from Nadal. But the King of Clay rebounded in the second and was able to pounce when Nishikori called for the trainer to treat his back. He was ahead 3-0 in the decider, too, when his opponent was forced to retire, clinching the win in a way no one wants, but at least shaking some of the cobwebs out of his game.

While this weekend's champions certainly have the resumés that make everyone take notice when they hit the courts, their prospects at the big -- and bigger -- events down the road had come into question in recent weeks. But their wins today did a lot to remind us just what they're capable of.

And while we all love a little bit of drama here and there, it's sort of nice to know things are getting back to normal.

A Coming Out Party

Madrid has always been one of those big events that catches us all off guard a little. Whether it's the weird blue clay, some strange whiffs on match point, or just your run-of-the-mill upsets, you never know what you're going to get.

And this year is no different.

Though many of the favorites have survived so far -- fingers crossed -- many have been tested thoroughly. And a couple of spoilers have showed surprising strength, and might just be able to propel themselves to a new level in the sport.

Grigor Dimitrov has long been considered a "Next Big Thing" in tennis, winning the Wimbledon and U.S. Open Juniors titles in 2008 and earning the nickname "Baby Fed" -- not exactly a no-pressure moniker. And while he's picked up a handful of Tour titles over the last several months -- and has wins over Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray to boot -- the best he's ever done at a Major was a third-round showing at the French Open last year. He comes to the Mutua Madrid Open at his highest ever ranking, #14 in the world, so expectations will be high. So far, he's delivered -- he put together a decisive win over Pablo Carreno Busta, something of a Cinderella this year in Monte Carlo, and held tough against tricky wildcard Marius Copil on Wednesday. While he just lost his set lead on sixth-seeded Tomas Berdych, he still has an opportunity to make his second Masters quarterfinal -- and the way things have been going this season, he has the potential to go even further.

Caroline Garcia also comes to Spain at the highest ranking of her career, though at #51 on the WTA, she's still far less accomplished than Dimitrov. But the twenty-year-old Frenchwoman has proven herself worthy over her short career -- back in 2011 she very nearly stormed over Maria Sharapova in the Roland Garros second round, running off with a set and a break lead on the soon-to-be-crowned champion, and this season, after pushing Serena to three sets in Miami, captured her first career title with a win over former world #1 Jelena Jankovic in Bogota. She's had a little bit of a pass so far in Madrid -- seventh-seeded Angelique Kerber retired down a set and a break in their opener and Maria Kirilenko, playing just her second tournament of the season, pulled out before the second round began. She next faces off against Sara Errani, clearly a clay-court favorite, but one who's been slightly more spotty this year. The two have never met before, but something tells me Garcia could just give the Italian a run for the money. And at as high-profile an event as this, there may be no better chance for her to do so.

But the real story this week in Madrid may be that of twenty-year-old Dominic Thiem. The one-time Juniors #2 reached the final of the French Open Boy's tournament three years ago and went on to win seven ITF Futures and Challengers trophies. Now #70 in the world, he's pushed Andy Murray to three sets in Rotterdam and beat Gilles Simon in Indian Wells, but his real breakthrough came just this week. After taking out a tough Dmitry Tursunov in an hour-long opener, he came back after losing a breadstick set to dominate Australian Open titleist Stanislas Wawrinka in the back half of their second round. It was just his third meeting with a top ten player, and importantly his first win over one. Later today he'll face Feliciano Lopez, certainly a big threat, but one far less intimidating than what the Austrian's seen already in Spain. If he plays like he did on Tuesday, he could just put himself on everyone's radar in the weeks that come.

It's always nice to see new talent really prove themselves in this sport, but it's even more impressive when it happens at an event where stakes are so high. As they each graduate to the next level, the pressure is only going to get higher, but if they can keep their cool, there's really no telling what they can do.

No Contest

The draws in Madrid were rife with upsets from the start this year, but when all was said and done it was some of the strongest stars in the sport left standing on finals weekend. A couple have only just come into their own on this tricky surface, but the ultimate winners were those who've shown, time and again, just how much of a threat they are, no matter what court they're playing on.

Maria Sharapova once described herself as a cow on ice when she played on clay, but a title at Roland Garros last year, followed by a repeat in Stuttgart might belie that statement. She made her way to the Madrid final, her fourth of the year, without dropping a set. Defending champion Serena Williams, meanwhile, never a sure thing on the surface herself, had actually had a few hiccups along the way -- after being pushed to a tiebreak in her opening set with Yulia Putintseva and losing serve to Lourdes Dominguez-Lino, she dropped a weird bagel to Anabel Medina Garrigues in the quarters. But she too eventually made her fourth championship match of the year, extending her win streak to eighteen straight matches since Doha.

The history between these two champions has been long, but fairly one-sided. Since Maria's breakthrough win at Wimbledon nine years ago, she's been a disappointing 1-11 against the world #1, notching nine sets in which she won just one game or less. The Russian's best recent attempt came in the Miami final, where she'd scored an early lead against her rival, but it's remained a long, long time since she's managed a defeat. And this weekend would keep the stretch going -- in the hour-plus match, Maria was able to convert just one of two break chances and won barely a third of her second serve attempts. Serena stayed the stronger player again and in straight set win, earned her seventh clay court title and put her, once again, in prime position to finally end a long drought in Paris. A loss-less season hasn't necessarily meant guaranteed success in Paris, of course, but Williams' repeat on a court that's never been her best might set the stage for quite a run at the next Grand Slam.

The men's final wasn't quite as big battle between two greats, but it certainly pitted one rising star against a seasoned, if imperfect, champion. Stanislas Wawrinka, having won three of his four titles on clay during his career, was coming off a huge victory over clay specialist David Ferrer in Estoril and had upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych already in Madrid. Rafael Nadal, on the other hand, had given up his stranglehold in Monte Carlo, and shown he could be beaten by even less formidable foes on his best surface. Still, since returning to play in February, he'd made at least the championship match of every event he'd played and won three titles to boot. He was seeded just fifth in his homeland's Masters, and though he faced quite a scare against Ferrer in the quarters, eventually kept his final streak running strong.

Nadal's had a tough time in Madrid in the past -- his one title here is largely overshadowed by losses to big rivals and weird tricks of weird surfaces. And against a top tier player like Wawrinka, Rafa's fate was far from certain on Sunday. But he took control from the start, dropped just three points on his first serve and didn't allow a break opportunity during the match. Winning an impressive 22-7 points on return, he never gave the Swiss a chance to get in the match, and with his first clay court Masters of the year under his belt now, his confidence must be greatly increased as he looks to close out the season.

While all four of this weekend's finalists have shown they are forces on the surface, the champions' dominance in their respective finals proves they're still the favorites against any opponent. If they are able to keep it up, there's few who will be able to stop them -- and the battles for even the biggest titles this year might be wrapped up before they even start.

Random Acts

That weird blue clay may be a thing of the past, but that doesn't mean things are back to normal in Madrid. There have been upsets from the start, and even the most decorated clay courters have already been shown the door -- and with just one top ten player not making the trip to Spain*, that's no easy accomplishment. So for those still standing as we head into the final weekend, chances may not be better to make a real statement.

Kaia Kanepi is on what seems like her hundredth career comeback -- the Estonian made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros back in 2008, but a knee injury hampered her play for several months the next year; she reached the quarters at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open in 2010, but lost momentum again in 2011, and she was in and out of Tour-level play throughout last season, battling an achilles injury that pushed her ranking back out of the top thirty. She's rebuilding again this year, but fell short of repeating as champion in Estoril. She's made better strides this week though -- she opened with a win in Madrid over former top-tenner Flavia Pennetta and then got one-sided revenge over her Portugal vanquisher Carla Suarez Navarro. Earlier today she battled through veteran Daniela Hantuchova to make the quarters, her best showing at a Premier event in almost a year. She'll have a tough task against Maria Sharapova in the next round, of course, but Kanepi's not one to be overlooked -- if she strikes early, she might just be able to put another big win on her resume.

Ekaterina Makarova has been scoring those "W"'s for years, beating Victoria Azarenka in the 2010 Eastbourne final and stunning Serena Williams in Australia last year. She's become a mainstay in the top thirty in 2013, but four first round losses coming into this event may have shaken her confidence a bit. She was instrumental in securing Russian victory at Fed Cup last month, though, and she hit the ground running this week in Spain. She got through Lucie Safarova in her opener and came from behind against third-seeded Azarenka late on Tuesday. Against recently struggling Marion Bartoli today, Makarova took control immediately, staving off all four break chances and jumping over her opponent on the return.

For her efforts she might get the honor of meeting another underdog in Varvara Lepchenko, whose so far ceded a two-break lead to seventh-seeded clay court specialist Sara Errani, a winner of five titles on the surface in the past year. Lepchenko has earned her chops on dirt too, though, making the fourth round of the French Open in 2012 and working her way from triple-digit rankings at the start of last year to top thirty now. She opened with a win over Roberta Vinci and then got a walkover from one-time Stuttgart champ Julia Goerges. She might be at a disadvantage even if she makes it through her third round -- Makarova won the pair's only previous meeting -- but there's no reason to believe the American #4 can't pull off a surprise.

The men's side hasn't been without upsets either and, maybe surprisingly, theirs have cut even deeper into the top ranks. Grigor Dimitrov, long hailed as "Baby Fed" for his similarity to the record-holding former #1, has only recently made good on these expectations -- since losing the final in Brisbane, he made the semis in Rotterdam and even took a set off Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo. This week, though, he really started to shine -- in a three-plus hour match against 2011 champion Novak Djokovic, he withstood two tight tiebreaks and eked out a win with just two more points than his much-heralded opponent. We'll see how worn out he is when he faces Oeiras champion Stanislas Wawrinka later today, but with his first career victory over a top five player finally under his belt, he should be confident that more can come.

Rivaling that result for most shocking of the tournament is what we saw this afternoon from Roger Federer. Defending Madrid titleist Roger Federer had only lost before the semifinals here once, and that was way back in 2002 when he made the quarters. Though he regained the #2 ranking from Andy Murray a few weeks back, he hasn't won a trophy yet this year, technically making this his least productive season since the turn of the century. His hopes to change that momentum were blunted today, though, when he met Japan's Kei Nishikori, rebuilding his own career over the last four years. The twenty-three year old stunned Roger to take the first set and, more impressively, held tough after losing the second 6-1. He got a break early in the decider, took advantage or weak serving by the legend and barely allowed Federer to win half his points on serve. After just over ninety minutes, he'd reached his first Masters quarter since 2011, but better yet scored the biggest win of his career.

Upsets are not uncommon at big events, of course, but the abundance of them in Madrid in recent years seems disproportionate. With no seeds safe, it seems, anything can and will happen on these courts. The winners that eventually emerge should know they've survived some of the biggest competition out there -- after all some of the best things ultimately came out of chaos.

World #7 Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out with a viral infection, the only man or woman in the top ten to miss the Mutua Madrid Open this year.

The Round-Up

I know it's been a while since I've posted, but that's no indication that there hasn't been a lot to talk about. The last two big events before the French Open featured eight distinct players battling for the crown, and each one made his or her case loud and clear that any could be real contenders at the year's next Grand Slam.

The biggest story in Madrid had nothing to do with the players and everything to do with the strange color of the court, but all complaints and dramatics aside, two of the strongest women in the field made their way to last week's final. World #1 Victoria Azarenka battled her way through a tough draw -- she faced 2009 Roland Garros champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in the first round -- to make her sixth final of the year. Meanwhile Serena Williams, finally toting a single-digit ranking again, looked to extend her win streak -- she'd taken a title in Charleston and swept opponents in her Fed Cup playoffs -- and dismissed potential threats from Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova to play for the title herself.

The final, though, was less dramatic than many hoped. Vika had put in some awe-inspiring battles during the pair's history, even when she ended up losing, and given the way she'd refined her game this year, the match-up promised to be brutal. But Serena built a 4-0 lead before the Belarusian was able to get on the board, and she had no occasion to look back from there. As Azarenka's serve failed her, she double-faulted away the first set after less than an hour of play. She tried to stay within spitting distance in the second but was unable to erase another early break there. With fourteen aces and nearly twice as many winners, Serena was finally the one holding the trophy -- her first on European clay since she won the French in 2002 -- and reminding us why nearly no one is safe when she's on her game.

The men in Madrid were out to make a similar statement. After both of last year's finalists lost before the semis, the remaining men knew the title was up for grabs. Roger Federer, winner here in 2009, had been on a roll recently, claiming three straight titles in February and March, and after surviving an early test from Milos Raonic in his opener, he sailed through his matches to make the final. In the other half, 2010 French semifinalist Tomas Berdych had pulled his game together, taking advantage of a Rafa-less draw and really only facing a challenge from Juan Martin Del Potro in the final four.

The Czech came out swinging in the final -- having won three of their last five, he had the confidence to do so. He got a break early in the first set and didn't squander the lead. But Federer turned the tables in the second -- this time it was his turn to ride a break to a 4-1 lead, and despite failing to serve out the set, he did eventually force the decider. The third set followed a similar pattern -- Roger broke in the eighth game, only to have his opponent even the score again. But with Berdych serving for a tiebreak, the Swiss kept his cool after losing a 0-40 lead and finally converted his fourth championship point, proving there are more than a few players able to win on the dirt.

The drama just intensified by the time everyone made their way over to Rome this week. A couple retirements on the women's side -- including both Madrid finalists -- wreaked a little havoc on the draw, but eventually the strong survived. Last year's champion Maria Sharapova got through some early tests from up-and-comer Christina McHale and resurgent Venus Williams before avenging her Paris loss to Angelique Kerber in the semis. And 2011 French Open champ Na Li, who's been pretty quiet since winning that trophy, benefitted from both Vika's and Serena's withdrawals, making the final without dropping a set.

The pair's head-to-head has been a see-saw of sorts -- MaSha won their first five meetings, but momentum shifted to Li's side for four matches after that, with Maria taking their last battle in Miami. The final was no different -- the Russian got the first break, but quickly gave it back, they stayed on serve for a bit, but Li broke again in the tenth game to take the first set. She built a 4-0 lead in the second, but the three-time Major winner rattled off eight games in a row and was a point away from 5-1 in the decider when Li started to rally again. The two had just fought to a tiebreak -- Sharapova saving a championship point along the way -- when rain halted play, and when the athletes finally took the court again, the 2011 winner was the one who kept her cool. Sharapova concerted her first match point, winning her second clay court title of the year and further turning around a recent losing streak in finals and reasserting her power just in time for the French.

The men's bracket was no less exciting. Defending champion Novak Djokovic rebounded from his quarterfinal loss in Madrid and took out one threat after another, notching his fifth victory over Roger Federer in their last six meetings. More impressive, perhaps, was Rafael Nadal, fresh off his earliest clay court loss since 2004 and a slight dip in his ranking, got right back to work in Rome. He easily made his way through early rounds, took out Madrid finalist Berdych in the quarters, and blanked compatriot David Ferrer to make the final.

So we'll be treated to a rematch of last year's final, though circumstances were slightly different this time around. Nadal had successfully ended his seven-final losing streak to Nole in Monte Carlo, and no one is sporting an astonishingly unblemished record going into the championship match. The head-to-head is more even than it had been, and both have shown they're not indomitable. When they both take the court, whether it's after a long rain delay on Sunday or Monday afternoon, they'll both bring their all to reclaim the crown. And while they've both proven to be great forces on the surface, something tells me this is where the Spaniard will reassert his dominance.

Of course, not all these guys and girls will be able to take the crown at Roland Garros, and experience may favor some over others. But each one of these players reminded the world of what it takes to win on clay. And if they're able to keep it up, they might be able to do some real damage when an even bigger trophy is on the line.

Feeling Blue

By now you've all heard the complaints. The strange blue clay of Madrid is slippery, it's hard to see the ball fly, it's just a way for the tournament to sell out for a sponsor, it looks like a Smurfing pile of Smurf. But when you see the surface claim arguably the best clay court player of all time as a victim -- well then, then, you really have something to complain about.

Earlier today Rafael Nadal, who fell in the final here last year to Novak Djokovic, was handed an even more surprising loss. Despite putting on one of the best shows of 2009, Fernando Verdasco had won just four sets off the former world #1 in their previous thirteen meetings. But Nadal's fellow Spaniard came out swinging, capitalizing on both his break chances in the opening set and creating a lead for the first time on the surface. Nadal fought back, though, and after forcing a third set had a couple chances to serve out that match. But Verdasco kept his cool -- he rattled off five straight games and avoided a late rally by his compatriot, and after more than three hours sealed what might be the biggest win of his career.

It was Nadal's earliest loss on the surface in eight years, and he wasn't the only casualty of the blue clay. Eighth seeded John Isner fell in straight sets to former top-ten player Marin Cilic, and Marion Bartoli lost a long struggle to Sorana Cirstea in her opener. Alexandr Dolgopolov, who'd put up a mediocre 12-9 record on the year so far, pulled off an impressive win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Petra Kvitova, after winning her first match handily, was handed an equally one-sided defeat a round later.

But while these players' moods may reflect the color of the courts, not everyone is upset. And the results so far this week suggest anyone can take advantage of the spell the clay casts.

Verdasco had fallen out of the top twenty a few weeks ago, but he may have turned his year around with Thursday's win. He should be careful his hangover doesn't impede his next match, though -- he has a decent record on the surface against Tomas Berdych, his opponent on Friday, and if he stays strong he could make a run even further in his homeland. And Janko Tipsarevic, coming off a super-successful end to 2011, has won just two matches for each he's lost this year. He'll have to bring his A-game against countryman Djokovic on Friday, but he's beaten him before and could just rattle the defending champ.

Not surprisingly, the ladies have seen a few more upsets along the way, but while many of the favorites are still alive, the pressure will be on in the quarterfinals. Aggie Radwanska, who's still only lost to world #1 Victoria Azarenka this year, will face qualifier Varvara Lepchenko on Friday -- the Uzbek native has dispatched Shahar Peer and Francesca Schiavone already, so she's playing with some confidence. It'll be a tall order, but momentum may be on her side. And Lucie Hradecka, who also made it through the qualifying rounds, has similarly beaten three higher-ranked players, including Kvitova. She'll again be the underdog against Sam Stosur in the next round, but the Czech's won a doubles crown at Roland Garros -- a couple more singles wins may not be that far behind.

But perhaps the player with the biggest opportunity is David Ferrer, a clay court specialist coming off a run to the final in Barcelona. The world #6 faces 2009 titleist Roger Federer next, and though he's never beaten him in twelve tries, Thursday's results could give Ferrer some confidence. After saving match points against Nicolas Almagro today, he's shown he has more than a little fight in him, and if he catches King Fed a little off-footed, like Verdasco before him, he too might be able to score that elusive first win.

Who knows if the underdogs remaining will be able to pull off the upsets? But if even a couple of them do, you can be sure the complaints from the favorites will grow louder. The blue courts of Madrid may ultimately not be long-lived, but they have already seemed to impact. Whether it's for this event -- or for the rest of the season -- we have yet to see.

In the meantime, I'll go back to a normal font -- I don't know first hand how hard it is to find the ball in this sea of blue, but this post is giving me a headache.

Make or Break

Let's talk for a minute about just how important the Mutua Madrid Open has become to the course of the tennis year.

Since the tournament shifted to clay two years ago there has seemed to be a shift in its significance. Now held in the first half of the year, before the second Major -- as opposed to the hardcourt event that had been contested in October -- there's now a lot more game to be played before the season is up. And even if the surface accounts for a relatively small portion of the year, past winners have really kicked themselves into high gear after tasting victory here.

In 2009 Roger Federer had been having an unusually non-prolific year. Though he had made at least the semis of four of the five tournaments he'd played, he hadn't won a title, losing a grueling final in Melbourne to Rafael Nadal. But once he stunned the Clay Court King in the Madrid things began to look up -- he completed a career Grand Slam a few weeks later with a victory in Paris, broke the record for Major titles and reclaimed the #1 ranking he'd given up for nearly a year. Not a bad way to turn things around.

Nadal pulled off a similar feat last year. After spending the first few months of the year recovering from injury, he finally got back his mojo on the clay and dethroned the defending champion in Madrid with a first class performance. He followed up his own Masters-title record setting by taking back the title in Roland Garros, extending his run at Wimbledon and shocking the world when he completed his own Grand Slam in New York. Back at the top of the rankings he'd set the stage to be the man to beat in 2011.

Of course, that was before Novak Djokovic came along. Famously undefeated this year, I think most of us expected his miraculous streak would end this week when he was slated to finally meet Nadal on clay. Both advanced with little drama to the final -- the third time they were meeting with a championship on the line this year -- but most predicted a different result. Novak had never beaten Rafa on the dirt, much less in a clay court title bout, and surely the Spaniard would show him who was boss, especially in his homeland.

But before we could blink an eye, Djokovic was off to a 4-0 lead. Rafa got one break back, even denying the Serb when he tried to serve out the set and pulling even. But when Nadal was serving for a tiebreak, Nole broke him at love and never looked back. Despite being broken to start the second set -- thanks in part to a fabulous between-the-legs lob that just fell inside Djokovic's court -- he quickly regained composure, won the next game and broke again a few later to stun the crowd and claim his astonishing sixth crown of the year.

So with all the talk over just how long Djokovic's streak can last, past precedent seems to suggest there are a couple more wins left in him. And if/when he does lose a match along the way, he shouldn't be worried -- he certainly looks on track to take home another Major or two this year. And several more in the years to come.



Ironically, the Madrid Open has not set the same precedent for the women. Since coming here in 2009, both winners Dinara Safina and Aravane Rezai have subsequently faltered in the months that followed. Safina put on a dismal showing at the '09 French Open final and has since been largely sidelined or ineffective due to injury. Rezai, who'd shocked Venus Williams in last year's final, hasn't won more than a single match at any event since last July.

I certainly hope the same fate doesn't befall Petra Kvitova, who earlier today smashed her way to the biggest title of her young career. Barely seeded at the event, the top-ranked Czech woman followed a win over world #2 Vera Zvonareva by beating Australian Open finalist Na Li in the semis. On Sunday against Victoria Azarenka -- who's been more than impressive in securing two titles of her own this year -- she was similarly impressive. After losing a three game lead in the first set, she held strong in the breaker to get the lead. The pair traded serves in the second, but Kvitova finally secured a lead at 4-3 she never surrendered. Firing off forty aces to just ten from Vika, the brand new world #10 certainly has what it takes to be at the top -- and I'm confident she even has what it takes to stay there.



The two new champions in Madrid this week have created huge opportunities for themselves over the last few days -- having now beaten some of the strongest and most dominant players on a very tricky surface, they have clearly set the stage not just for Roland Garros, but for the rest of the year. Whether their streaks end or their fortunes turn of course has yet to be determined, but if they can keep it up, we'll be talking about them both for a long time to come.

The New Guard

It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that turnover in the ranks of women tennis players has been growing. With Serena Williams out for the time being and Kim Clijsters touch-and-go for most of the spring, we're not seeing much consistency from the athletes that should be dominating recent tournaments -- and the players who, at this time last year, were all over the late rounds have stepped aside to make way for a few others.

Top seeded Caroline Wozniacki fell in three sets Thursday in Madrid, marking her earliest exit since January, and both last year's champion and runner-up at Roland Garros followed suit soon after. And like with many of the draws we've seen in recent weeks, that's allowed a few others to capitalize on their own recent strength.

Julia Goerges, who not only defeated the world #1 today but also in the Stuttgart final a few weeks back, continues to improve her game. She's defeated some seriously experienced players in her first three rounds, albeit all went three sets, but that she can handle the pressure of the big stage bodes well for a player who just cracked the top fifty last year.

It's a bit of a pity the German next faces fellow rising star Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The nineteen-year-old has a handful of smaller titles to her name, but has spent the last eight months in and around the top twenty. She narrowly missed a seeding in Spain, but blew through Marion Bartoli on Tuesday and followed it up with a straight set victory of 2010 breakout Sam Stosur. With additional wins this year over players like Jelena Jankovic and Petra Kvitova, her resumé is certainly getting more impressive every day.

Speaking of the Czech, Kvitova started the year with a bang, upsetting heavy favorite Kim Clijsters in the Paris championships before injuries crippled her ascent the next few months. But playing solid ball again in Madrid she's already taken out second seed Vera Zvonareva, her third top-ten victory of the year.

And for her efforts she gets to meet fellow giant-killer, Dominika Cibulkova -- certainly an easier on-paper foe than potential opponents Svetlana Kuznetsova or Maria Sharapova, both of whom the diminutive Slovak took out in straight sets this week, but not one to be overlooked. A semifinalist at the French Open in 2009, she's most comfortable on the clay and seems primed for her own breakout. If she can handle Kvitova, I'm not sure there's a limit on how far she goes here.

Lucie Safarova first broke into the top twenty-five a couple years ago, and though she's failed to regain those rankings, she can still pose a threat to the top-tier players. She had championship points in Kuala Lumpur a few months back and gave Vera Zvonareva quite a scare in Melbourne. But she seems to do best on these courts -- she made the Madrid semis in 2010 and this year stopped Anabel Medina Garrigues's hot streak cold before then upsetting former #1 Jelena Jankovic in the second round. Her win over Jarmila Gajdosova today confirms just how big a threat she can be.

In a slightly different tier than these ladies is Victoria Azarenka, who kicked off the clay court season by winning a title in Marbella, just after reclaiming the Miami crown. Never before considered a big threat on the surface, she sure has changed my mind about her strengths, dropping less than two games a match on average so far in Spain. She's the highest seed left in the draw and could easily make a fast break for the title the way she's playing -- and a breakthrough here sets a very solid stage for the rest of the spring.

All of these ladies are on the verge of breaking new ground in their careers. Having toed the line between being just good and really great for some time, none has had a better opportunity to make the big leap over. And with those inhabiting the top spots for the better part of the year seeming so willing to step aside, I'm hoping one of them seizes the chance to make her mark now.

Could This Be It?

One long winning streak is going to end this week in Madrid -- that I can guarantee.

Novak Djokovic, of course, is riding a wave of twenty-nine consecutive victories when you count his Davis Cup wins that capped off 2010. That's led to five trophies on the year -- one Major and two Masters -- and sparked speculation that he's the favorite to end the year at #1. It certainly seems like the Serb is unbeatable -- he quieted critics who contend he's just a one-surface player by taking the trophy in Belgrade last week, his fifth on clay, and he gets right back to work this week in Madrid, where he made the semis in his last appearance two years ago.

Not surprisingly, he lost that match to world #1 and Clay Court King Rafael Nadal. He comes to his country's capital with a thirty-two match, six title streak on the surface -- one which saw him claim a record eighteenth (now twenty) Masters crown. He has an intimidating 93% record on the dirt and thirty-one trophies as proof of his dominance. But only one of those came in Madrid when it was played on clay -- his devastating loss to Roger Federer in the 2009 final was one of only two losses on the surface that year.

And so we've come to the first clay court tournament of the year with both Rafa and Nole in the draw -- and at least one has to lose.

They're, of course, slated to meet in the final, but there are a couple threats to their both getting there. Nadal faces a stacked draw that includes unseeded Estoril champion Juan Martin Del Potro in his quarter. And his 2009 French Open vanquisher Robin Soderling and Roger Federer, never to be discounted, loom in the same half. Djokovic could face a fourth round match-up with suddenly surging David Ferrer, runner-up to Nadal at their last two tournaments -- he's riding a wave of momentum that shows no signs yet of subsiding.



But if the latest "match everyone wants to see" does come to fruition, it might not be the blowout we all expect -- though Rafa remains unbeaten by Nole on clay, he was pushed to three sets in all but one of their last seven meetings. And Djokovic notched his first finals victory against Nadal in Indian Wells. I'm not quite ready to predict an end to the Spaniard's streak, but if anyone's going to put a stop to it, it seems appropriate it should be the man who's already foiled two attempts this year to add to his trophy case.

And whichever stretch ends this week, we can be sure it will soon be replaced by a new one.

A Rivalry Renewed

Do you realize it was exactly a year ago that Roger Federer last met Rafael Nadal on a tennis court?

The last time so much time passed before the two faced each other was between their very first two meetings: Rafa beat Roger in the third round of Miami in 2004 -- Fed avenged that loss in the '05 finals in an amazing, 3-plus hour five-setter which would set the stage for the next half-decade of back and forth, and back again.

Today in the Madrid finals, Rafael Nadal had a couple goals in mind -- a win would give him a record Masters 1000 titles and his first in Madrid. He would also get revenge after last year's heart-breaking loss which ended his long undefeated streak on clay. Of course, Roger had his own agenda -- he hadn't won a tournament since Melbourne and had lost to some surprising opponents over the last few months. Defending the title he won so solidly last year would certainly give him some confidence going into Paris.

The match was a long two sets, spanning more than two hours, with the storied rivals trading breaks early and fairly often. Nadal gave up leads twice and ultimately needed a second set tiebreak to seal the deal. With it, he won his twenty-eighth trophy on clay and kept his year-to-date record on the surface perfect at 15-0. More importantly, he turns the momentum back in his favor -- last year's loss ended a five-match win streak over Federer and preceded a multi-month span riddled with injuries and early(ish) losses.



And it couldn't come at a better time -- it's been almost sixteen months since Roger and Rafa have faced each other at a Grand Slam, and now just a week away from the start of the French Open, it's good to know we're probably not that far away from seeing the next epic battle. Whatever the score line reads, you know these two always put on a show -- and as they continue to go after each other's records it stands to reason it's only gonna get better from here.

And I can't wait to watch it!

Back on Top

Well, at least close to the top.

This week in Madrid Venus Williams secured her position as the #2 player in women's tennis when she beat Francesca Schiavone in the third round of the Mutua Madrileña Open, a spot she last held more than seven years ago. And like a true champion, she did not rest on her laurels, but instead proceeded to power through tough opponents like Charleston winner Sam Stosur and Shahar Peer, who'd beaten Svetlana Kuznetsova in her opening match.

Now I know I haven't always been the biggest Williams supporter, but even I have to admit I've been wondering what took her so long to come back. You might remember she began the year with a quarterfinal appearance in Melbourne and followed that up with an amazing fifteen match, two-title win streak that ended in the Miami finals. She may not play quite as many tournaments as the other pros, but those she does enter, she really shows up for -- Venus hasn't lost before the round of eight since last October.

Tomorrow, Williams plays in her seventieth career final -- she's already won forty-three of them, and she has to like her chances against world #24 Aravane Rezai. But the Frenchwoman should not be overlooked -- the two have actually split their previous meetings, both on clay and both several years ago. Rezai also made good after upsetting Justine Henin in the first round of Madrid and put together a solid victory over Jelena Jankovic to make the semis. The champion in Bali last year knows how to put together more than a few wins in a row.

Still Venus the more experienced, considerably more consistent player, should be able to make it through. And if she does, we might start talking about her as a threat at another Major which just happens to be around the corner.

Incidentally, Rafael Nadal's win over Nicolas Almagro this morning helped him reclaim the #2 ranking on the men's side too. He hasn't been gone quite as long as Venus was, but when he plays in the final tomorrow, he'll have another goal in mind -- a title in Rome, amazingly a clay-court tourney he has never won, would give him a record eighteen Masters 1000 titles, surpassing Andre Agassi who won his seventeenth at Cincinnati in 2004.

And if he makes it, wouldn't that make for an interesting French Open?

Looking to Gain Traction

Things are getting a little tense on the pro tennis tour these days -- with only two weeks left before the next Grand Slam, players who aren't used to losing much are doing just that.

Roger Federer has lost four straight times to players who, on average, would only barely get a seeding at a Major. Andy Murray, who spent a couple weeks last year at #2 in the world, has only won one match since March -- he hasn't made it past the quarters since Melbourne. And Robin Soderling, the surprise finalist at Roland Garros last year, hasn't put up quite the fight I expected in the last couple months.

All these guys, and a few more, came to Madrid this week to try and recapture the momentum that so suddenly shifted back to the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal. Some have so far been successful, others not so much.

Roger, by virtue of three Slam titles in the last four events, is so far ahead of everyone else you might not realize how much each match he plays has at stake. Anything less than a trophy at any tournament he plays for the next seven will result in thousands of points coming off his ranking. And since he won the Madrid championship last year -- only his second clay-court victory over Rafa -- the first of many big tests comes this week in Madrid.

So far he's done well -- a straight set victory over Benjamin Becker got him to the third round for the seventh time. Next he'll face countryman Stanislas Wawrinka, a man who actually did beat him last year in Monte Carlo, but if Federer does get the win he could give himself some momentum going into Paris.

Murray meanwhile has kind of gone off into oblivion since losing the Melbourne. He lost to Janko Tipsarevic in Dubai and Mardy Fish in Miami and hasn't successfully defended any of the three titles he'd won by this time last year. A championhere in 2008, he certainly is capable of winning a big title, though he hasn't been able to follow through on his most recent attempts.

In his opening round Wednesday, we finally began to see signs of the talent that had made so many think Murray would be the next big winner -- he got through veteran clay court champion Juan Ignacio Chela in straight sets and about seventy-five minutes. From here, he should have a pretty easy ride to at least the quarters where a potential match-up between David Ferrer, who beat him in Rome, or Marin Cilic, who ousted him from the U.S. Open last year, will challenge just how much he really is a threat at the French.

Soderling, who'd used that tournament to establish himself in the sport's elite in 2009, got off to a rough start this year, but a title in Rotterdam and a final appearance in Barcelona put him back on the map for the clay-court season. Today, though, he was less than spectacular as a somewhat spotty Nicolas Almagro pulled off a straight set upset of the world #7. He only has one more week to reset his ship on the right course.

Next week in Nice Robin will be seeded second behind previously red-hot Nikolay Davydenko, a man who had won four trophies in less than four months before a wrist injury took him out of action for the last several tournaments. He, along with Juan Martin Del Potro, out with his own wrist injury, and Andy Roddick, who withdrew from Rome for personal reasons and from Madrid due to nausea, should be back in action soon after longer-than-ideal absences. I, for one, certainly look forward to their return -- but they'll all need to rebound, and rebound fast, if they're going to have a shot at advancing at Roland Garros.

After all, with Nadal, Roger and Murray back in the swing, there's sure to be a lot of fireworks in Paris.

Something in the Water

I'm not sure what's going on in Madrid. Maybe it's a bit of nerves -- with eighteen of the top twenty women's players in the draw, the stakes are clearly high. Maybe it's that some players are a bit rusty -- we haven't seen a lot of Serena, Dinara or Maria this year. Maybe it's just the stress of the pending Grand Slam.

Who knows, but before an entire round has even been played we've already seen some shocking results.

The first came on Saturday when last year's French Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova suffered her third early exit in as many weeks, this time in a tough three-set loss to Shahar Peer. Then on Sunday, the odds-on favorite to reclaim her Roland Garros crown, Justin Henin, gave up a bagel in the third set to Aravan Rezai. And Lucie Safarova, finally finding her footing after a volatile few months, dismissed Maria Sharapova in about ninety minutes.

Of course there are plenty of other tough players left in the bracket -- Serena Williams made the semis in Rome last week before Jelena Jankovic sent her packing. And defending champ Dinara Safina won't take the court until Monday -- but after her loss last week, also to Peer, she's not exactly playing at the top of her game.

And the last few weeks have certainly added a few new -- or sort of new -- names into the mix. Charleston runner-up Vera Zvonareva dealt Melanie Oudin her third loss since Miami in their first round, and could make a play to get back into the top ten within a few months. And after her inspiring run to the Rome semis, Ana Ivanovic has reminded us why she won a Major not even two years ago. Then there's Estoril finalist Arantxa Parra Santonja, who faces wildcard veteran Virginia Ruano Pascual in her first round Monday -- she has a pretty decent section in the draw and could get through a few rounds herself.

For the top seeds to have a chance they're going to have to bring it -- last year's runner-up Caroline Wozniacki has won a match or two since that devastating fall at the Family Circle Cup, but she's going to need to be healthy and hard-hitting to make it back to the championship round. And sixth-seeded Elena Dementieva, who's probably one of the best all-surface players on the Tour, could face Serena for a spot in the semis, but should be mollified by the fact that she's won six of their nine meetings since 2007.

But they'll all have to be careful to avoid the fate of those that have already gone home. With so much on the line, we really don't want to see anyone deserving get upset.

Oh for Two!

I'm not the best at picking winners, which is why I usually stay away from the horsetrack, the roulette table, and any sort of gambling venue in general. (Except for poker -- I love the poker.)

But I thought my predictions for the winners at the Mutua Madrilena Open in Madrid were a fairly safe bet -- on my week-old Twitter page (thanks to all my followers!) I not-so-brazenly declared on Friday that hometown favorite Rafael Nadal would claim the men's crown while surging starlet Carolina Wozniacki would take the women's title.

And I was fairly on track.

Rafa had only lost one set in the tournament to Novak Djokovic in the semis, stringing together a 33-match win streak on red clay. His opponent in the finals, nemesis Roger Federer, had lost his last five matches against the current #1 and hadn't beaten him on the surface since 2007. He'd gone almost seven months without winning a title, while Rafa had won the last three tournaments he'd played.

Of course Nadal would take home another.



On the women's side, my forecast was a little more up in the air. Dinara Safina was playing in her third final since taking the #1 spot from Serena Williams and was going for her second trophy this year. She was easily the favorite over the Danish teen who, earlier this week, climbed into the top ten for the first time in her career.

Even still I went with the underdog.



But somehow things got all messed up and I lost on both counts.

Federer looked stronger than he had in months, out-acing Rafael six-to-one and keeping his second serve percentage well above his opponent's. In less than ninety minutes he earned the right to hold up a silver plate for the first time since October. Safina was similarly impressive, not dropping serve once in the two sets of their first-ever meeting. Caroline was weaker on serve and return, and unfortunately couldn't quite keep up with the more-experienced champ.



Now I don't know if today's results make a big difference in the overall standings -- I still think it's clear Nadal's going to win his fifth French Open in a couple weeks and maybe Safina will finally bring home her first slam. But some stellar performances in Madrid will certainly make the action much more interesting.

Will I go out on a limb to make my predictions now? I told you I'm not a betting girl.

But my money's still on Rafa and, just for the heck of it, let's say Jelena Jankovic -- she lost here in the quarters but did win her only title of the year on the Marbella clay.

Be sure to check back to see if I'm right!