When Carlos Met Novak

Carlos Alcaraz 🤝 Novak Djokovic #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/4HefpitnTt

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 14, 2024

If you can believe it, it's barely been two years since the first time we had the pleasure of watching Carlos Alcaraz take on Novak Djokovic on the tennis court.

The stage was the 2022 Madrid Masters semifinals -- Alcaraz had literally just turned 19, but you could already see glimpses of the star he would quickly become.

While the year before he was still playing qualifiers at the Majors, he capped that season off with a win at the Next Gen Finals and a few months later captured his first ATP 1000 title, beating Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz and Casper Ruud for the crown in Miami. After racing to his fourth career title in Barcelona, he came to Madrid ranked #9 in the world and stunned five-time champion and heretofore undisputed King of Clay Rafael Nadal in the quarters. It was the young Spaniard's first -- and so far only -- win over his compatriot in three tries.

Djokovic, meanwhile, was already well-established as a contender -- and would soon become the leader -- in the GOAT debate. He'd already won twenty Major titles -- just one less than Nadal, who'd climbed back into the lead with the unlikeliest #21 in Melbourne that January. He'd swept the first three the year before, falling just one match short of what would have been the elusive Calendar Year Slam -- something that hadn't happened since 1969. He'd been ranked #1 in the world for 328 weeks and had won 86 singles trophies so far in his career. And at 35 years of age, he showed no signs of stopping.

But somehow, Alcaraz was able to prove his foil. In a three-and-a-half-plus hour match with two tiebreaks and just three breaks of serve total, the teenager pulled out the win and go on to claim the title. Later that year he would earn his first Major at the U.S. Open and climb to the #1 spot himself.

Since that inaugural meeting, the careers of the two men have been remarkably similar. Alcaraz has picked up eleven more titles, Djokovic twelve. They've won all but two of the ten Majors that have been contested -- four apiece. Together they've spent 80 weeks at #1. And appropriately, they've split the six meetings they've had so far.

Was the Madrid semifinal the start of the next great rivalry in tennis? Probably not -- with 16 years of age separating Alcaraz and Djokovic, one has to think the number of times we'll see them square off again are limited. But it might have signaled a passing of the torch.

After all, I'm not sure anyone expected yesterday's Wimbledon final to result in the drubbing it did.

Sure, Djokovic was just a month removed from a knee surgery that I so wrongly assumed would keep him out of the All England Club altogether. Sure, it had been eight months since he last won a title -- marking the first time since 2006 he'd gone this far into a season without scoring a trophy. Sure, his first two opponents in London were ranked outside the top 120 and he benefitted from a walkover by Alex de Minaur in the quarters, so his road to the final was less than fraught with obstacles.

But he had trounced former world #4 Holger Rune in the fourth round and in the semis drubbed Lorenzo Musetti, who'd taken two sets off him in each of their previous two Grand Slam meetings. And with Major #25 and Wimbledon #8 in his sights, you'd expect to see him fight like he always does.

As it turned out, though, another marathon nail-biter was not in the cards.

Alcaraz broke his opponent right off the bat and run off to a 5-1 lead in the first set. He was similarly strong to start the second and quickly built a two-set lead. But we know better than to ever count out Djokovic, who's come back from two sets down eight times at Slams, by my count. And when he saved three championship points late in the third set to score his first break of Alcaraz's serve, it seemed like he might be able to pull off the impossible again.

But Carlos proved to be ever resilient, and after just two-and-a-half, he was the one lofting the Wimbledon trophy this year.

Sunday's victory gives Alcaraz a slew of new superlatives. He's now 4-0 in his first four Major finals -- of the Big Four, only Roger Federer has done that. After the French Open he became the youngest (male) player ever to win a Slam on all three surfaces, and now he's the youngest to win at both Roland Garros and the All England Club in the same year. If he can manage a victory in Australia, he'd have achieved the career Grand Slam before he turns 22.*

So it certainly seems like we've entered a new era of tennis greatness, with a new set of rivalries sure to emerge. It's still early in Alcaraz's career, of course, but he sure seems like he's going to be a force in this sport for some time. Will he, in ten, fifteen years' time, be rivaling Djokovic for the GOAT crown, Nadal for clay supremacy?

Who knows.

But for now, it's nice to know we were there when it all started.

---

* Serena Williams, of course, did win the French and Wimbledon in 2002, a few months before she turned 21, and completed the Serena Slam the following January in Australia a few months after that birthday.

History, Rewritten

Champion status 🏆 pic.twitter.com/dMbePkgano

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 12, 2021

I'm sure most people thought they'd be writing hugely different articles today.

After all, the only thing anyone was talking about going into this year's U.S. Open was the chance Novak Djokovic had at making all kinds of history. The possibility of capturing the ever-so-rare Grand Slam. Perhaps the even more impressive opportunity of scoring a never-been-done-before 21^st Major title. The chance of cementing himself as the unequivocal #GOAT 🐐 in the sport, with plenty of time left to just add to his accomplishments. And as almost every promo airing on ESPN liked to remind you, he got one match away.

But, as we know, that history was not to be, and an entirely different story will go down in the record books.

Daniil Medvedev became the newest inductee into the Major championship club, stunning the world #1 in tonight's final in straight sets. There was almost never any question he was in control of the match, breaking in the very first game and pulling ahead two sets and two breaks to establish what would turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Even when he double faulted away championship point and was broken for the first time, trying to serve out the match, he was able to regroup and ultimately seal in the victory.

Of course we shouldn't be surprised that Medvedev was able to win a Major -- he came OHSOCLOSE to doing it two years ago on this stage against Rafael Nadal, and with a win in Toronto this year and titles in Paris and London to close out last season, he's certainly established himself as one of the best hardcourt players on tour.

But with his win today, he achieved something bigger. Medvedev became the first Next Gen player to beat one of the Big Three en route to the title -- remember Dominic Thiem got away without facing any of them last year in New York. And that could signal a real passing of the torch is underway, with the Russian taking up the mantle of leader of the pack -- a group he could lead for a long time.

So is it all over for Djokovic? Of course not -- he's still the #1 player in the world and playing at the top of his game. While he'll end the year tied with Rafa and Roger at 20 Majors apiece, the next slate of Grand Slams is just around the corner, and given his dominance in Melbourne, he could very well add #21 to his roster in a matter of months.

Going after the full Grand Slam again, that may be a little tougher, and for now Rod Laver's legacy remains intact. Come January 1, everyone starts at square one in their pursuit of that honor, and there's no reason to believe Djokovic won't give it another whirl.

But now, he's going to have at least one more player nipping at his heels and trying to put his own stamp on history.

Waiting in the Wings

VICTORIOU5.@AlexZverev wins a 5th Masters 1000 title, defeating Rublev 6-2 6-3 in the #CincyTennis final 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/plFmkk5E8C

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 22, 2021

I admit I've been somewhat actively ignoring the steady ascent of Alexander Zverev over the last year or so for various reasons, but while I've been trying to focus my attention elsewhere, it's becoming increasingly hard to deny the fifth-ranked German's emergence as one of the top contenders for the last Major title of the year.

He, of course, made a pretty strong case for himself last year -- back when his biggest offense was his rather cavalier attitude to COVID protocols. Playing in his first Grand Slam final at the U.S. Open, he ran off to a two-set-to-love lead against Dominic Thiem and seemed poised to upset the Austrian's fourth attempt at capturing that big trophy. He came up short that time of course, but continued to plough through in the new season, so nearly getting to the final in Paris, somehow battling from two sets down to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis to force a decider.

But it's been on the hard courts where he's really shined. At the Tokyo Olympics last month, he thwarted Novak Djokovic's attempt to win the rare Golden Slam, beating the world #1 in the semis on his way to capturing the gold medal. And this week in Cincinnati, he captured his fifth Masters title with wins over a red-hot Casper Ruud, a back-on-track Tsitsipas, and a surging Andrey Rublev, who was coming off his first ever win over Toronto champ and second-ranked Daniil Medvedev.

That gives Zverev his fourth title of the year and an impressive 11-match win streak heading into the U.S. Open, where he'll try to go one better after that disappointment from last year. And there may be no better chance for him to do it -- within the past week Thiem, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal have all said they won't be playing in New York, which gives the next generation a real chance to show us what they've got.

Of course Djokovic will be there, too, looking for the "consolation" prize of "just" a regular old calendar year Slam, as will Medvedev, who's been one of the most dominant players on tour this year. But Zverev will certainly be a threat, and he's certainly shown he's got what it takes to step into the spotlight.

And For the Ladies...

On the ladies side in Cincinnati, Ashleigh Barty further solidified her spot at the top of the women's game, rolling to her fifth title of the year -- at least one each on every surface -- without dropping a set.

And as impressive as her accomplishment was, it's certainly worth highlighting the run by her final challenger Jil Teichmann, a wildcard at the Western & Southern who followed up a monster upset of Naomi Osaka with wins over Olympic champion Belinda Bencic and Montreal runner-up Karolina Pliskova. Then again, maybe we shouldn't be so surprised that he found success on the American hardcourts -- the 24-year-old Swiss did make the final last year in Lexington and beat Danielle Collins when this event was played in New York a week later. Her success may not be enough to get her a seeding at the Open, but it sure should make her a dangerous spoiler in any section of the draw.

Oh, and, by the way, there was a WTA 125 going on in Chicago and, if you weren't paying attention, you might have missed the fact that Wimbledon Cinderella Emma Raducanu hopefully silenced that British dope with a runner-up finish that began with a big upset of top seed Alison Van Uytvanck in the opening round. She did ultimately lose the trophy to fellow teen sensation Clara Tauson, who picked up her first career title this past March in Lyon, but the wins prove she was no flash in the pan and that she might just have what it take to stick around awhile -- regardless of what that guy says.

Giant Slayer

Brava, Camila! 🇮🇹 🏆#OBN21 pic.twitter.com/LbiAwTj1yz

— wta (@WTA) August 15, 2021

It's been a long and winding road for Camila Giorgi the last few years.

The 29-year-old Italian first caught our eye at Wimbledon back in 2012 when, ranked #145 in the world, she stunned compatriot Flavia Penetta and former world #3 Nadia Petrova on her way to the fourth round. She scored some big wins after that, too, stunning Caroline Wozniacki at the U.S. Open in 2013, beating Maria Sharapova at Indian Wells a year later, and running to the quarters at the All England Club in 2018, her best yet performance at a Major and the catalyst for her career high ranking at #26.

But she's been a little inconsistent around her successes. After making the final at the Citi Open in 2019, she lost the first round in Cincy. Another runner-up finish in the Bronx that summer was followed by an opening round exit at Flushing Meadows. She started this season ranked #76 and between August of last year and this past June she only won more than two matches at the same event once.

Things may be changing for her though. Clearly most comfortable on grass, she stunned an on-fire Aryna Sabalenka in the Eastbourne quarters. And her switch to hardcourts has been rather impressive -- she took out Jen Brady and Wimbledon finalist Karolina Pliskova on her way to the final eight in Tokyo. And that was nothing compared to what she did this past week in Montreal.

Unseeded an low ranked, Giorgi was not dealt an easy hand at the Omnium Banque Nationale. She opened against ninth seed Elise Mertens and got the win in straight sets. She went on to take out 2020's surprise French semifinalist Nadia Podoroska, two-time Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova, wünderking Coco Gauff, all without dropping a set. In yesterday's semi against Jessica Pegula, she avenged that loss in Washington two years ago, and today she scored her third win of the season over Pliskova, whose own run here got her a ticket back to the top five.

It's quite an intimidating list of opponents she left in her wake, and for her efforts she was appropriately awarded with by far the biggest title of her career. But maybe more importantly, she proved she can be dangerous even off the surface we've come to believe is her best, and that could make her quite a threat as we count down to the final Major of the year.

Meanwhile...

Of course, it wasn't just Giorgi bringing home the hardware this weekend. World #2 Daniil Medvedev put even more distance between himself and #GOAT 🐐 contender Rafael Nadal -- who, incidentally, slipped behind Stefanos Tsitsipas this week after an early loss in Washington pushed him out of the top three. The Russian, who breezed past big-serving Reilly Opelka in today's final in Toronto, added a third Masters crown to his résumé and has now one, or finished second at basically every important second half hard court event since 2019.

With Roger Federer out of the U.S. Open, and Nadal's withdrawal from Toronto and Cincy putting his prospects in question, Medvedev may be the best positioned to thwart Novak Djokovic's quest for that historic calendar year Grand Slam. I've said that before, of course, but something tells me this time things could be very different.

21 in '21?

The moment @DjokerNole became #Wimbledon champion for the sixth time pic.twitter.com/5xN8ogWYYT

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 11, 2021

I really didn't think we'd get here so quickly.

With Rafael Nadal edging out Novak Djokovic last year at the French Open and pulling ahead of him in the Grand Slam race by three titles at the end of last year, I thought for sure we'd have a little longer to wait before Nole would catch up.

I mean, Djokovic would probably win in Melbourne, but Rafa would surely dominate in Paris again, right? Claim a 21^st Major title there and take the lead all by himself? Force the world #1 to win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open just to get within one big trophy of the top spot? The soonest Novak could draw even would be next year. Right? Right?!

Well after Nole's stunning victory at Roland Garros, one that featured one of the most spectacular wins of his career over Nadal, all that math went out the window. And today, on Championship Sunday at Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic is writing history on his own terms.

His win over Matteo Berrettini in the final didn't come easy. The Italian seventh seed put up one hell of a fight, breaking Djokovic when he was trying to serve out the first set and taking the early lead with a win in the tiebreak. He got down two breaks in the second, but stopped Djokovic's first attempt to serve that one out, too. But ultimately it was the two-time defending champion -- the man who'd already won five titles here total -- whose experience and extreme talent won out.

The title, of course, puts him neck-and-neck(-and-neck) with Rafa and Roger Federer with twenty Grand Slam trophies each. But there's no question he's been the most dominant player over the last ten years, winning nineteen of them since 2011, compared to eleven for Nadal and "just" four for Fed. As he said after tying things up today, these two rivals have pushed him to be a better, stronger, smarter player, and they're all going to keep striving to be the first to hit blackjack.

And there's every chance in the world it could happen for one of them in New York -- very and, honestly, most likely Djokovic, who could become the first man since Rod Laver to win the calendar year Grand Slam. He said himself he could envision that happening, and the way he's playing, that's not just hubris.

After all, we've all got 20-20-20 vision now and are seeing things very clearly. This #GOAT 🐐 contender may have only just tied things up, but in the race for #21, he's got the lead all to himself.

Transcendent

Let it be known that the gods of Roland Garros don't look kindly upon those who take out their king.

Back in 2009, when Rafael Nadal's 31-match win streak was shattered in the fourth round by Robin Soderling, the then-#25 was able to ride his momentum to the championship match, but lost there in straight sets to Roger Federer, allowing the legend to finally capture the career Grand Slam, the first man to do so since Andre Agassi ten years earlier.

In 2015, when a sort of struggling Rafa was ousted in the quarters by Novak Djokovic, his vanquisher was again denied the ultimate prize, this time by Stan Wawrinka. It would take another year, one in which Nadal pulled out of the event before his third round with a wrist injury, for him to complete his own Major sweep.

And today, another six years after Rafa's last loss in Paris, because appaently that's the cycle of these things, the powers that be tried their damnedest against Djokovic again. But this time their efforts weren't quite good enough.

Reunited and it feels so good 🥰#RolandGarros | @DjokerNole pic.twitter.com/vKibu8cEhr

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 13, 2021

It isn't surprising that Nole seemed to come out of the gates a little sluggish today. His semi against Nadal was widely and appropriately heralded as one of the best clay court matches of all time. The four hour, eleven minute battle featured some of the most brilliant shotmaking we've ever seen with, as one commentator pointed out, both players hitting multiple winners in every point. And while I'm still smarting from the outcome -- and might argue that it was Rafa who pulled the more awesome tricks out of his bag -- ultimately it was Nole who wore down the thirteen-time champion for a spot in the final, and it made sense he'd be a little worn down too.

And on Sunday the gods -- or Stefanos Tsitsipas, appropriately for the analogy, the first Greek to make a Major title match -- did their best to take advantage of that. The fifth seed had put together the best clay court record this season, winning 22 matches to get here and picking up two titles, including his first Masters, along the way. I thought he had a pretty good shot at winning the whole thing before play even got started in Paris, and after he took the first two sets in the final match, hoped he might just be able to pull it off.

But we should all know better than to count Nole out of any match. He converted a break in a long game in the third set and it took the wind out of Tsitsipas' sails in a big way. Frustrated he wasn't able to hold, the 22-year-old was unable to regroup, never earned himself another chance to break, and despite a couple of good gets, failed to recapture the magic of those first few hours. And after a match exactly as long as his semi with Rafa, it was finally Djokovic able to hold the trophy up high.

It takes something ultra special to overcome all the odds and pull off all that Novak did this week -- first to find the brilliance to beat Nadal on these courts and then to find the stamina to come back from two sets down against a supremely talented opponent suggests a strength not of the mortal world. The victory brings him his nineteenth Major trophy, drawing him ever closer to Roger's and Rafa's record twenty -- and with Wimbledon just a few weeks away and a real shot at winning the U.S. Open too, he might just pass them both before the year's over.

It also earns him a second Career Grand Slam -- at least two trophies at each Major. He's the first man in the Open Era to have achieved that feat and joins Rod Laver and Roy Emerson as the only ones to hold that honor. With stats like that it's no wonder so many are eager to have the GOAT 🐐 conversation or that Djokovic has deservedly risen to the top of the contender list. And while it might still be a little to early to lock in that decision, it's clear that Novak is in a league very few will ever reach.

And perhaps one that will ultimately be all his own.

A Striking Imbalance

38-0.

That's how many Grand Slam titles reside with each half of the remaining men's draw at Roland Garros. If that's not enough of an disparity for you, how's this? 56-1: the number of times each side has played a Major final. Or 73-5: how many semis. However you slice it, there is a huge difference in experience between the top and bottom halves of the draws. And while one may be brimming with opportunity, the other won't step aside that easily.

Final 4️⃣

🇷🇸 Djokovic vs. Nadal 🇪🇸
🇩🇪 Zverev vs. Tsitsipas 🇬🇷#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/0g2DWN6yDB

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 9, 2021

When the draws were released nearly two weeks ago, we were all disappointed to see Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal -- not to mention Roger Federer -- on the same side of the bracket. It seemed like some credit should be given to Rafa's thirteen titles here, even if he had ceded the #2 ranking. I mean, if these two should meet in Paris -- for the eighth time -- shouldn't it be in the final?

And they have, unsurprisingly, played up to form over this fortnight. Djokovic, who claimed a title in his hometown of Belgrade just a day before play started at the French -- had a weird fourth round against young Lorenzo Musetti, dropping the first two sets in tiebreaks before steamrolling through the next two and a half, but was in top form against Matteo Berrettini in yesterday's quarter. Nadal, meanwhile, may have had his 36-set win streak here broken in the quarters here, but he continues to find his best game when it matters and remains undefeated since 2015.

There's a lot at stake in their match tomorrow -- whoever wins will certainly take the advantage into Sunday's final, and a title there has historic implications. For Rafa, still the favorite no matter his ranking, two more wins earns him a record 21 Grand Slam titles, pulling him out of his current tie with Federer and potentially putting him in unreachable territory. But if Novak gets the win -- and he could, he was the last to actually beat Nadal on these courts -- he climbs within one Major of his rivals, and the way he's been playing Down Under, could fast establish himself as leader of the pack.

But does a win tomorrow necessarily guarantee a title at Roland Garros? Chomping at the bit in the bottom half, after all, is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who's been having one of the best clay court seasons out there -- 21 wins on the dirt so far, not to mention titles in Monte Carlo and Lyon, give him arguably a better run even than Rafa this year. He came pretty dang close to beating him in Barcelona, too, so this could be the best chance he's had yet to not only make his first final, but maybe even cause the upset of the century in it.

Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev, who dropped his first two sets in Paris to qualifier Oscar Otte before going on a fifteen-set win streak, came OHSOCLOSE to victory in his first Slam championship last year. He also has a win over Rafa on clay this year, getting the better of him on the way to a Madrid title last month. He's had a relatively easy path in Paris, though, without facing another seeded player yet, so let's see how he does when he's pitted against someone who's been so strong this year, because the winner of tomorrow's first semi will have a huge opportunity come Sunday.

Of course, it's going to be hard for one of the Next Gen to have his breakthrough against the OG. The last person outside of the Big Three to beat one of them during his run to a Major title was Stan Wawrinka all the way back in 2016. And we know these guys only up their games when the stakes are highest.

Still, the scales are going to start tipping in favor of these guys eventually, and if victory comes when the long-time champions are still at their prime, it'll only mean that much more. Because it seems certain that "0" at the top is going to tick up, and the only question is when.

Some New Blood

With the quarterfinals for this year's Roland Garros now set, you might notice more than a couple newbies in the mix.

The women's draw, shredded from the start, has just two players remaining who've ever reached the final eight at a Major before, and only one of those still standing is ranked in the top fifteen. And while most of the favorites have survived so far on the men's side, outside Nole and Rafa, even the top seeds have relatively little experience this deep into a fortnight.

And all that might mean the fireworks have only just started.

The Women

2️⃣2️⃣ sets and counting 🙌@iga_swiatek keeps her streak alive while battling to victory over Kostyuk 6-3, 6-4 and claims the final slot in the QFs.#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/PTUVu2Wxdq

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2021

We already knew things were going to be interesting on the ladies side of things, which so many withdrawals, upsets, and retirements in the early days, but that just makes the consistent performances we've seen so far that much more impressive. Defending champion Iga Swiatek, somehow the most accomplished of the bunch at just twenty years of age, pulled off a strong win today against eighteen-year-old Marta Kostyuk, who rode her first round upset over former titleist Garbiñe Muguruza all the way to the fourth round in a pretty impressive run. Meanwhile, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the relative veteran of the group -- she's not even thirty yet! -- has made it back to the quarters in Paris for the first time in a decade. But everyone else is charting new territory.

I've already extolled the performance of Elena Rybakina, who rebounded from a sluggish start to the year to pull off the biggest win of her career in the fourth round, dismantling Serena Williams as she went for that still-elusive 24^th Grand Slam title. And I've also been a big cheerleader for Paula Badosa -- with her title in Belgrade and a win over 2019 French runner-up Marketa Vondrousova in the last round, she's now riding a nine-match win streak and could be hard to beat. But there's also Maria Sakkari, the highest ranked first-timer, who ousted last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin earlier today. She's had trouble backing up one big win with another, but she'll be trying to change that against Swiatek in the next round

But we can't count out Tamara Zidansek who is having a true coming out party in Paris. About 30 spots off her career high ranking at #85 in the world right now, she's never made it out of the second round of a Major, and though she did manage a nice run to the Bogotá final, I wasn't giving her much of a shot here. But she followed up a first round upset of sixth seed Bianca Andreescu with wins over Serena's Parma slayer Katarina Siniakova and Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea. She's certainly the on-paper underdog, but we should know better than to count her out.

And, of course, there's the match I might be most excited for -- seventeen-year-old Coco Gauff, the youngest woman to reach a Slam quarter in fifteen years -- Nicole Vaidisova, on these courts -- will take on Barbora Krejcikova, whose won a couple of Major doubles titles but has only even entered a handful of singles draws, in a battle of players riding nine-match win streaks. Gauff has a huge opportunity here -- her win over Ons Jabeur helped secure her a spot on the U.S. Olympic Team, while Krejcikova, who followed up an upset of fifth seed Elina Svitolina with a win over a resurgent Sloane Stephens, could get revenge for a doubles loss to Coco in Miami this year. But with a spot in her maiden semi on the line, it's great to see two unexpected superstars really stand out.

The Men

Rafa ❤️ Chatrier#RolandGarros | @RafaelNadal pic.twitter.com/bGsXJCouA6

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2021

Things went a little more according to plan on the men's side, but that doesn't mean a total lack of drama -- or of fresh faces. Nineteen-year-old Lorenzo Musetti looked experienced well beyond his years when he took the first two sets off Novak Djokovic earlier today before losing steam and retiring in the fifth set, and fellow Italian teen Jannik Sinner got off to a strong start against Rafael Nadal, but the king of clay was able to do what he always does best to pull out the win.

The two favorites will take on two relative newcomers to the later rounds of Slams. Matteo Berrettini, whose ability to deliver I questioned for so long has happily proven me wrong, taking the title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. He got a little lucky with Roger Federer withdrawing before their fourth round match, but that extra rest could help him against a tested Djokovic. And Diego Schwartzman, who's turned around his clay court season in a big way, has yet to drop a set in his first four matches. Whether that gives him a shot at repeating his Rome revolution against Rafa -- well let's just say it's good to see him winning again.

The real surprise for the men has come in the bottom half of the draw, which, with the only Grand Slam titleholder in it eliminated in the first round, seemed to hold a huge opportunity for the next generation's leaders to breakthrough. And they've admittedly done well so far -- my favorite for the final, Stefanos Tsitsipas, is alive and well, dropping just one surprising set so far to John Isner, while Alexander Zverev has thrived after surviving an opening match scare and even Daniil Medvedev has found his footing on clay.

The standout, though, has been 21-year-old Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who's become a bit of a dark horse over the last few months. Outside the top fifty at the start of the year, he beat Berrettini in the second round of Monte Rome and took out Grigor Dimitrov in Rome. Playing just his third main draw in Paris, he stunned Casper Ruud, one of my favorites to go far, in the third round and followed it up with a win over sleeper Federico Delbonis. He's lost both his previous matches to Zverev, but whatever happens in the next round, this could set the stage for a lot more to come in his career.

---

Maybe we shouldn't be so surprised that so many twists and turns have come out of the French Open. But it's truly encouraging to see so many players breaking new ground over the last ten days. For the women, there's an unprecedented opportunity to claim a first Grand Slam title. For the men, while the odds still lie with the most decorated of the bunch, we're really going to see which next gen star has what it takes to step up.

And there's no better stage than this on which to do it.

French Open 2021 Preview: Round by Round

It's been just over seven months since we crowned the last king and queen of Roland Garros, and yet, on the eve of the 2021 French Open it somehow feels like it's taken such a long road to get back.

After all, it's been a dramatic clay court season, with surprising upsets, stunning statements, and pretty impressive breakthroughs.

Rafael Nadal has proven he is not invincible on clay. Perennial powerhouse Simona Halep had to withdraw due to a calf injury. And for the first time, possibly in history, we have two defending women's champions back to keep their win streaks here going -- and they've both made pretty good cases for themselves.

As the draws shake out, we have the opportunity to see some fierce match-ups, and the surprises could start coming right at the get go. So here's a look at some of the possibilities and the potential battles that could really make things interesting at Roland Garros this year.

And, as with the last time, I'm essentially resetting the draw after each pairing -- someone who had to be eliminated for one match to take place may show up later in another one. It's only because there have been so many standouts this season that there's no other way to cover it all.

So let's dive right in.

THE WOMEN First Round Second Round Third Round Fourth Round Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship

THE MEN First Round Second Round Third Round Fourth Round Quarterfinal Semifinals Championships

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WOMEN'S DRAW

Barty takes the lead!

🇦🇺 @ashbarty d. 🇵🇱 Swiatek 7-5#MMOPEN pic.twitter.com/O4gizncm8A

— #MMOPEN (@MutuaMadridOpen) May 3, 2021

First Round

Aryna Sabalenka (3) vs. Ana Konjuh (Q): Well this is a tough first round for both players. The heavy favorite Sabalenka is at a career-high ranking and is pretty fresh off picking up the biggest title of her career in Madrid. She also made the final in Stuttgart and, of course, has been putting one of the strongest win streaks out there. But...she has never made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam. Konjuh, meanwhile, made the quarters at the U.S. Open years ago, and after a long recovery from injury is finally back in form. She scored wins over Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek in Miami and successfully pivoted to clay with a final run in Belgrade. Still at #144 in the world -- she was sub-300 in Miami -- she had to fight through qualies to get here, but she could put up quite the fight against someone many consider a potential champion.

Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Last year's runner-up opens her point defense against 2017's recently resurging champion, and I'm not sure I like her chances. Kenin has struggled with injury and form and has only won one match since the Australian Open. Meanwhile, Ostapenko is coming off a quarterfinal showing in Rome. But the young American has a new coach and has shown that she's more than capable of shaking off bad losses. Still, this one is going to be close.

Carla Suarrez Navarro vs. Sloane Stephens: CSN's farewell tour was disrupted first by COVID and then, tragically, by cancer, but she's back for one last hurrah at Roland Garros and all sorts of sentiment is one her side. It's hard to tell what condition she'll be in (though her social profile suggests she's in fighting form), but she'll certainly face a challenger at the outset. Suarrez's first round opponent is the 2018 runner-up in Paris, and while Sloane famously rides a roller coaster in terms of performance, she may be on the upswing -- she made the quarters in both Charleston and Parma, with wins over favorites both times. Still, the Spaniard, twice a quarterfinalist here, has had some career-defining wins over the years, and hopefully has a few more left in her.

Veronika Kudermetova (29) vs Amanda Anisimova: The on-paper favorite has had a strong year, with a run to the final in Abu Dhabi and her maiden title in Charleston. It's bad luck that she'll open her campaign here against 2019's surprise semifinalist. But it's been a tough two years for the young American -- after suffering the death of her father during her breakout year, she kicked off this season with a COVID diagnosis and an ankle injury and she's struggled to gain traction ahead of her return to Paris. Still, at only 19, she's probably got a lot of room to surprise us, and she's beaten much more formidable opponents on these courts before. If she's playing at her best, this one could be a battle.

Second Round

Bianca Andreescu (6) vs. Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Q): The former U.S. Open champ doubled her 2019 win record on clay with her performance in Strasbourg. Unfortunately, that means she still only has two wins on the surface this year. She cut her run short last week to take care of an ab injury, and she'll be tested pretty quickly on the big stage. MCOS, after all, has been racking up wins this season -- the 19-year-old picked up her first title as a wildcard in Bogota, made the semis the next week in Charleston, and picked up in Europe with a run to the semis in Belgrade. That got her into the top hundred -- not soon enough to have her avoid qualifying rounds, but she breezed through those without dropping a set. She's faced Andreescu what feels like years ago, in the final of an ITF event in Oklahoma, and only won one game, but something tells me things will be different this time around.

Serena Williams (7) vs. Arantxa Rus: Rus has had some huge wins on big stages over the years, stunning then-#2 Kim Clijsters at Roland Garros in 2011 and then-#5 Sam Stosur at Wimbledon a year later. But that was a long time ago, and she really never came to much after that. She did upset second seed Jessica Pegula this past week in Strasbourg, though, and came OHSOCLOSE to beating Williams last year in "Cincinnati" too. Could she seal the deal this time? Possibly -- as Serena continues to go for that elusive 24^th Major, she's hit one roadblock after another, and she hasn't really found her footing on clay this year. She'll put up a fight, of course, but everyone should know by now that she's far from invincible, and if both these ladies make the second round, Rus certainly has a shot at an upset.

Garbiñe Muguruza (12) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo: I was all aboard the Sorribes bandwagon in the early spring -- the 24-year-old was impressive in her run to a maiden title in Guadalajara and even more impressive in her quarterfinal fight against Bianca Andreescu in Miami. Strangely, for a Spaniard, she's been a little quiet on clay. Her compatriot, meanwhile, was the champion here five years ago and is a far better player than her ranking suggests. It's a tough early round for both, but one that could spark some fireworks.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (32) vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Krejcikova is a decorated doubles star, with a couple Major trophies over the years -- she and Katarina Siniakova won both the French and Wimbledon in 2018 and were runners-up in Melbourne earlier this season. But she's really started gaining traction on the singles scene over the last few months, making the fourth round in Paris last fall and the final in Dubai in March. But Alexandrova is no slouch either -- she beat Simona Halep and Iga Swiatek in the Gippsland draw to start the year -- and I'm perennially shocked to see how "low" her ranking is. These two have met twice already this year, with the seed getting the win at the Australian Open and Krejcikova pulling off the upset this past week on her way to the title in Strasbourg. Given the surface, I wouldn't be surprised to see that outcome play out again.

Third Round

Naomi Osaka (2) vs. Paula Badosa (33): This is where things get interesting. Osaka isn't the best player on clay -- she's never made it out of the third round here, and she lost early in both Madrid and Rome -- and her draw got a whole lot harder on Friday with the withdrawal of 27^th seed Alison Riske. That's because it elevated Belgrade champion Paula Badosa into seeding territory, and the red-hot Spaniard already has wins over Ashleigh Barty and Belinda Bencic on clay this year. Badosa had before been in the Sabalenka/Serena quarter, but even as the lowest seed things are looking a lot better for her now, and if she can pull of a win here, it might be hard to stop her until the semis.

Jennifer Brady (13) vs. Coco Gauff (24): Brady may be the more seasoned player here, and she may have some impressively deep showings at the most recent Slams, but this is a whole new court, and Coco's been the one grabbing all the headlines on it. A semifinal run in Rome and not one but two titles in Parma brought her to a career high ranking of #25 in the world, and a couple wins here will certainly drive her even higher. Of course, this match-up is not a sure thing -- Gauff could face Melbourne Cinederella Su-Wei Hsieh in the second round, while Brady may have to get through clay specialist Fiona Ferro herself. But if they both make it, I feel like the edge goes to the younger phenom.

Nadia Podoroska vs. Sorana Cirstea: This potential battle would require a couple upsets early on -- Cirstea opens against 2019 French semifinalist Johanna Konta, while 2020 French semifinalist Podoroska will start her point defense against tenth seed Belinda Bencic. But there's plenty of reason to believe both can pull off the wins. Cirstea, a one-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros -- twelve years ago! -- has her groove back after a title in Istanbul and a second place finish in Strasbourg, while Konta has only scored three match wins this year. And Podoroska, who stunned Serena Williams in Rome, could easily get the better of a recently-spotty Bencic. In any case, I'm excited to see these two face off and can't even begin to pick the favorite.

Fourth Round

Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Karolina Muchova (18): Svitolina is a solid clay court player and has had a lot of success on the courts of Paris, making the quarters three times. But while she's had some decent wins this year -- Petra Kvitova in Miami and Stuttgart, Garbiñe Muguruza in Rome -- she hasn't really had a standout moment in a little while. After all the upsets at the French last year, she was for a brief moment a favorite for the title, but then got crushed> by Nadia Podoroska in the final eight. Muchova, on the other hand, had her coming out party a few months ago, beating Karolina Pliskova and Ashleigh Barty on the way to her first Slam semi in Melbourne. And about a month ago she beat Naomi Osaka en route to the Madrid quarters. She's slated for a rematch with her compatriot, a three-time finalist in Rome, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her make another attempt at a deep run now.

Petra Kvitova (11) vs. Danielle Collins: Collins may only be ranked #50 in the world, but she is no slouch on clay, having reached the quarters last year with wins over Ons Jabeur and Garbiñe Muguruza along the way. She's had some big successes this season too, taking out Karolina Pliskova at the Yarra Valley Classic and Ashleigh Barty in Adelaide. But she had to undergo a pretty harrowing surgery for endometriosis last month and hasn't been seen on court in a while. She says she's playing without pain and more consistently now, though, which could make her an even bigger force than she usually is. While she might have to get through Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams first, she could very well set up a showdown with last year's semifinalist at the end of the first week. Kvitova is one of those consistent favorites, though, and always seems to up her game when you least expect it. I imagine this could be a fun one.

Maria Sakkari (17) vs. Jessica Pegula (28): Sakkari is one of those players I really want to see big things from, and she gets so close to making that happen so often. Last year she pulled off a massive win over Serena in "Cincy", but lost the next round; this year she stunned Naomi Osaka in Miami, and again dropped a match later. Pegula, on the other hand, has had a little more follow through, even when she's a far bigger underdog. After stunning Victoria Azarenka in the first round of the Australian Open this year, she went all the way to the quarters. Then as a qualifier, for some reason, in Doha she made her way to the semis. And while she did lose to Sakkari in Miami, she followed up a win over Osaka in Rome to make the final eight there. Seeded at a Slam for the first time, she might have to make it past last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin first, but if there's one thing we should know about Pegula by now, it's that she's more than capable of pulling off one upset after another.

Petra Martic (22) vs. Shelby Rogers: Not that long ago I wouldn't have given Martic a second glance, but the 2019 quarterfinalist here, coached now by former French champion Francesca Schiavone, seemed invigorated in her run to the semis in Rome. But Rogers has made the quarterfinals in Paris before too, and she'll want to avenge her loss to Martic in the first round in Rome. It won't be easy for either of these two to get the rematch -- Martic is slated to face Garbiñe Muguruza in the third round, while the American could run up against the defending most-recent champ Iga Swiatek even sooner -- but it'll be interesting if they're able to make it.

Quarterfinals

Serena Williams (7) vs. Victoria Azarenka (15): Okay, okay, I know, this one's a long shot. Neither of these ladies has been playing her best recently, Serena getting upset in both Rome and Parma, while a persisent back injury forced Vika to pull out of matches in Melbourne, Doha, and Madrid. But, for old time's sake -- not event that old -- let's just say they're able to return to form again. I mean, remember that match last year in New York? Wouldn't it be fun to see that again? And if anyone can pull off the comeback, it's these two.

Elise Mertens (14) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (Q): Okay, now we're talking about long shots, but hear me out. Mertens has been one of the most under-the-radar but consistent players on tour the last several months, reaching at least the quarters in ten of her last 15 tournaments and picking up a title in Gippsland too. On clay she beat Veronika Kudermetova in Istanbul and Simona Halep in Madrid, so you know she's comfortable on this surface. Schmiedlova, meanwhile, may be far removed from the career-high ranking she hit half a decade ago, but with a win over Azarenka here just last year she's more than capable of an upset or two. Can she, as a qualifier, make it all the way to a quarterfinal? Well she's got some big obstacles in her way, starting with Iga Swiatek in the third round and Garbiñe Muguruza one after that. But what fun would sports be if we didn't get a few surprises?

Semifinals

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Iga Swiatek (8): It doesn't happen very often that you have two simultaneously defending champions at a Major, but as COVID kept Barty from traveling to Paris last fall, Swiatek was able to gloriously take up the mantle in her absense. Their only previous meeting in the fourth round of Madrid was disappointingly straightforward, with the earlier titleist getting the win in straight sets. But while the world #1 has a field-leading 13 wins on clay so far this season, the younger Swiatek stormed back onto our radars with a trophy in Rome and seems primed to make a potential second meeting a little closer -- and possibly raise the bar for how two champions should compete.

Championship

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (3): There is a lot that can happen over the course of the next two weeks, but it seems fitting that the two winningest players this season could face off in another final. They already split their title contests in Stuttgart and Madrid, so why not add Paris to their rivalry? I admit, I've been skeptical about Barty's staying power in the past, but she's really proven she's deserving of that #1 ranking. Sabalenka may have a little more work to do, though -- despite a career-high ranking and a long and impressive win streak, she's never gotten out of the fourth round of a Major. And with a tough first round here she'll be tested off the bat. But in a half that's really wide open, I'd expect something big from her now.

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MEN'S DRAW

😋🏆😁@RafaelNadal #IBI21 #tennis pic.twitter.com/eM3Goky9pi

— Internazionali Bnl (@InteBNLdItalia) May 17, 2021

First Round

Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Alexander Bublik: I'll save the complaints about Medvedev's second seeding for later, but regardless, there's no doubt he's had one of the strongest twelve-month stretches out there. Still, he's not a fan of the clay -- something he's made very clear over the past few months. He's one just one of three matches on the surface the year -- and has a barely better record for his still-young career -- and has never won a round at Roland Garros. It'll be hard to change that against the barely unseeded Bublik, a player I continue to believe is better than his ranking. The Kazakh isn't that much better on dirt, but he did manage to make the quarters in Madrid, with wins over Denis Shapovalov and Aslan Karatsev. Whether he makes a big statement here, I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get at least this upset.

David Goffin (13) vs. Lorenzo Musetti: The seeded Goffin has had a couple of pleasantly surprising results this year -- taking the title in Montpellier and stunning Alexander Zverev in Monte Carlo -- but outside of that, he's been pretty quiet. Nineteen-year-old Musetti, on the other hand, has continued to climb the rankings, making the quarters in Cagliari and the semis in Lyon. I'm kind of calling for the upset here, but what a confidence boost it would be if Goffin could get a win over this up-and-coming/already-arrived star.

Emil Ruusuvuori vs. Mackenzie McDonald (Q): McDonald is still well off his career high ranking, but a fourth round showing in Melbourne and a Challengers title in Nur Sultan have helped boost him a little. He still had to play qualies here, though, but made it through without losing a set. For his efforts, he gets a shot at the 22-year-old Finn whose name I had to learn how to spell after a solid defeat of Alexander Zverev in Miami. It's certainly a winnable match for the young American, but not one he should take for granted. And if he can pass the test, it could help launch him back where he belongs.

Second Round

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Federico Delbonis: Thiem is a two-time finalist here and a fairly-newly-minted Grand Slam champion, but a nagging knee injury has really hampered his effectiveness this year. While he managed a decent run in Madrid, he's been upset more than he's been winning. Delbonis, meanwhile, has been pretty active all spring, playing week in and week out, upsetting Pablo Carreño Busta in Spain, reaching the quarters in Rome, and this past week reaching the semis in Belgrade. He's never had a lot of success at the Majors, only made the third round once at the Australian Open five years ago, but this might be the best chance he's had in a while.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Sebastian Korda: It wouldn't be a Major if we didn't see at least a few popcorn matches right at the start, and this could be one of them. Twenty-year-old Korda has been slashing his ranking all year, reaching the final in Delray, the quarters in Miami, and this past week picking up his first tour-level title in Parma, ousting top seeded Lorenzo Sonego on the way. Tsitsipas, meanwhile, has two clay titles of his own this season, including his first Masters crown in Monte Carlo. The two have a huge opportunity here, in the half of the draw with just one Grand Slam title -- compared to the top half with fifty-nine combined -- and it's a shame that one will have to go home early. But you can be sure they'll both be battling to make sure they're not that one.

Lorenzo Sonego (26) vs. Cameron Norrie: The 26-year-old Italian is another one who's been climbing up the rankings in recent months. Since that miraculous win over Novak Djokovic last year in Vienna, he's gone on to win a title in Cagliari and score wins over Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem in Rome. Norrie notches his own upset of Thiem on his way to the Lyon final and also came in second in Estoril. He has yet to bring home that maiden title, but he's certainly finding his footing on the clay. The winner of this match will have a tough road ahead of him -- Rafael Nadal likely awaits in the third round -- but it certainly will make a case for potentially bigger runs over the year.

Third Round

Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (Q): Here's another potentially explosive early match-up. Rublev has followed up nicely on his breakthrough season, reaching the quarters of his last three Majors, picking up another title in Rotterdam, and absolutely stunning Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Alcaraz's successes have been on a much smaller scale, but a semifinal run in Marbella, a Challengers title in Oerias, and a perfect record in the Roland Garros qualies, gives him a nice winning streak coming into the main event. He'll likely face Munich and Doha champ Nikoloz Basilashvili in the second round, but sparks may really start to fly if he can set up the match with the top-ten Russian -- and it could give us a good taste of what the future of tennis will look like.

Diego Schwartzman (10) vs. Aslan Karatsev (24): This one pains me. After a late-in-his-career breakout, which included a win over Rafael Nadal last year in Rome, Schwartzman's been pretty quiet in 2021, losing his opening round four times. I am somewhat mollified by the fact that he did pick up a title in Buenos Aires and that his losses came against talented players, but it's still not a precedent you like to see. Karatsev, on the other hand, has been virtually unstoppable. Since his Cinderella run in Melbourne, he picked up his first title in Dubai and scored wins over Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and, yes, Diego Schwartzman. I wouldn't be surprised if things go his way again, but I'm hoping the Argentine is able to find his magic again.

Roberto Bautista Agut (11) vs. Kei Nishikori: It's been a long time since we've seen fan-favorite Nishikori at the top of his game, but this could be the best chance he's had in a while to make a statement at a Slam. At his lowest ranking in nearly a decade thanks to yet another battle with injury, he's still able to get the better of his opponents. He beat David Goffin in Dubai, Karen Khachanov in Madrid, and Fabio Fognini in Rome. RBA can't be overlooked though -- he's reached finals in Montpellier and Doha this year, beating Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem at the latter, and the semis in Miami, with a win over Daniil Medvedev there. But clay is weirdly not his best surface, which could crack open the door a bit for the man from Japan.

Jannik Sinner (18) vs. Albert Ramos-Viñolas: Sinner is another one of those youngsters quickly making a habit of beating top-ranked players. A quarterfinalist at the French last year, he won two titles to bridge the seasons and made a play for the big leagues with a run to the final at the Miami Masters. Ramos has been pretty busy himself, quietly amassing 17 wins on clay this season and claiming a title in Estoril to boot. He'll have to get past Gael Monfils in the first round, but with the Frenchman having only won match in the last year-plus, his bigger challenge will likely be against the wünderkind, and that one could be fun to watch.

Reilly Opelka (32) vs. Tommy Paul: It's easy to overlook the Americans on clay -- especially the men -- but these guys have been putting up some nice results over the past few weeks. Big-serving Opelka is coming off a run to the semis in Rome, where he took out Lorenzo Musetti and Aslan Karatsev, and could make a play to become the top-ranked man in the States. Paul is a little further down the rankings, but he pulled off some nice wins this past week in Parma, beating Jiri Vesely and Jan-Lennard Struff on his way to the final four. He's suppsed to face Daniil Medvedev in the second round, but as I've mentioned, that's not a guarantee -- nor is beating Alexander Bublik, to be honest -- but if he makes it, a battle against his countryman would give someone a little bit of bragging rights.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Arthur Cazaux (W): This one might take a little bit of doing, but it's not the craziest of thoughts. ADF has followed up nicely on his strong 2020 season, making the quarters in Monte Carlo and the semis in Estoril. And while likely second round opponent Hubert Hurkacz scored the biggest-yet win of his career in Miami, he's been less impressive on clay, winning just one match so far against world #171 Thomas Fabbiano in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Cazaux is playing his very first Major main draw -- he lost first round qualifying in Paris last year to Aslan Karatsev -- but he has scored wins this year over Sebastian Korda and Adrian Mannarino. And we know how well French wildcards can do at Roland Garros. Cazaux would likely need to get past super-surging Casper Ruud -- more on that later -- to set up this one, but stranger things have happened.

Fourth Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Marco Cecchinato: During those years I'd stopped writing and paying attention to every twist and turn in the tennis world, something very strange happened -- Novak Djokovic stopped winning Majors! After locking in the Career Grand Slam at the French in 2016, he went on a two-plus year stretch without earning another big title. And one of the biggest surprises during that run came at the hands of Marco Cecchinato, who stunned him in the Paris quarters in 2018. Then it was the Italian's turn to start losing -- eight straight Major first rounds as his ranking dropped back out of the top hundred. He may be getting back on track, though, reaching the final this past week in Parma. It's not crazy to think he might be able to engineer a rematch -- the first seed he'd face is Alex de Minaur, who's only ever won one match here, and the second is David Goffin, who might not make it even that far -- though expecting a repeat is probably a little less likely. Still, it'd be fun to see him try.

Roger Federer (8) vs. Matteo Berrettini (9): Now this one scares me. It's been over a year since we've seen Roger at a Major, and his performance since has been spotty at best. He drew the short end of the draw stick, with both Rafa and Nole in his half of the bracket, and the other Grand Slam champion in this section, Marin Cilic, is his probably second round opponent. Meanwhile, Berrettini has been suprisingly impressive of late, winning a title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. Fed has won their two prior meetings in 2019, but if the seedings play out as expected early, things may go differently this time around. And I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Quarterfinals

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Daniel Evans (25): Weirdly, it might be the lower-rated Brit that has the better chance of setting up this match. Evans, who kicked off this year with his first career title at the Murray River Open, may have scored the win of his career when he beat Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo. That certainly makes him more of a factor on a surface that's not traditionally his best. Thiem, though, who usually thrives on clay, has been a little more spotty post injury and has plenty of challenges on his route. So does Evans, of course, but if he survives, this one could be fun.

Alexander Zverev (6) vs. Casper Ruud (15): In an alternate universe Madrid champion makes good on his seeding, beating Evans in the third round, and Geneva titleist Casper Ruud, who also took out Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid, overcomes Thiem too, setting up what may, in the end, be a more likely quarterfinal. I begrudgingly admit Zverev has remained a force despite his off-court drama, and with some easy early rounds, should make it through relatively unscathed. And Ruud, who's sitting at a career-high ranking, is due for a Major breakout. There's no reason this can't be it for him.

Semifinals

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (3): It's not often that these two face off outside a final, especially at the French, so the fact that they're doing so now has plenty of people up in arms. After all, it's a pretty big injustice that Nadal is seeded third here -- sure, you can argue that he's had a quieter 12 months than world #2 Daniil Medvedev, but given the latter's obvious disdain for the surface -- and the former's dominance on it -- you'd think there could be some leeway. There are plenty of reasons for Rafa fan's to be nervous -- the last time he took on the Djoker before the final Sunday in Paris did not go his way, and he's been less than perfect this clay court season. Then again, so has Nole. And given how close their last meeting was, you know this one is going to be close. Whoever wins, though, if they're not completely spent from the battle, you have to think comes away with the title.

Championship

Rafael Nadal (3) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5): This pick may not be what the seedings predict, but given this clay court season it would be the most appropriate. Rafa, of course, will have to make it through a half which contains all of the Big Three, with a combined 58 Grand Slam titles between them -- adding in 2014 U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic makes it 59 -- not to mention a potential quarterfinal against Andrey Rublev, the man who beat him in Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas, on the other hand, with a season-leading 16 wins on clay this year, compared to Nadal's 14, has it relatively easy, with just one Major title in his half. He's never reached a final at this level though, falling just short at last year's French, but there's no question these have been the two best players on the surface this year. And given how close their previous matches have been, if they get a chance to play for this crown, you know it's going to be a good one.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Alexander Zverev (6): In another alternate universe, hearts are broken and justice is not served, but two very strong clay courters nevertheless reach the final. Djokovic made up for his slow start to the clay season, bringing home a title at the second Belgrade Open earlier today. And if there is anyone who'll be able to recover in time for a Slam, it's him. He doesn't often get the better of Nadal on these courts, but he's got what might be the best shot he's had in a long time this year. After all, he only barely lost the title to him in Rome, and that after a double header the day before. Zverev, meanwhile, has his own win over Nadal at a clay Masters and an arguably easier road to what woud be his second Slam final. If this is the championship we get, you know I'll be all in for Nole -- but Zverev seems destined for a trophy soon, and this might just be his time.

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Well there you have it, the matches I hope or believe we'll see over the next two weeks at Roland Garros. Of course, we can't bank on anything at the Majors, and as much as we know we should never count out Rafa here, there are plenty of others ready to take up the mantle, and a lot more primed to make a big splash.

And as we kick off the second Grand Slam of the year, let's hope we can make it a good one.

Déjà vu

There was something very familiar about championship Sunday this weekend in Rome, wasn't there? Like we'd seen these two champions sharing the stage somewhere before.

But the return to the winner's podium for Iga Swiatek and Rafael Nadal was far from a sure thing, and the fight they showed to get there proves they both know how to bring their best when it really counts.

Saving MPs in R3 🤝 Winning the #IBI21 title

🏆 @iga_swiatek | @RafaelNadal 🏆 pic.twitter.com/CQayiaS9Km

— wta (@WTA) May 16, 2021

The Ladies

Let's start with the ladies, whose clay court season has given us a varried array of champions all pulling off big wins. But with perennial favorite Simona Halep struggling with injury, and hardcourt powerhouse Naomi Osaka still struggling to get her footing on the dirt, it's been Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka that have been most consistent, with the two splitting the last two big titles on the surface. But the former pulled out of Rome with an arm injury and the latter was stunned by Coco Gauff in the third round, allowing last year's breakout star Iga Swiatek a pass to the final.

That's not to say the 19-year-old Pole had an easy time of it this week. Swiatek, who crashed out of Madrid just last week in a battle of two women who'd both won their last seven matches at Roland Garros, had to fend off two match points against Barbora Krejcikova, a very talented doubles player whose really upping her solo game too the last few months. Krejcikova had already beaten French Open runner-up Sofia Kenin, and came a whisker away from doing it to Swiatek too before the fifteenth seed was able to rally.

Meanwhile in the bottom half of the draw, where one favorite after another was summarily eliminated, it was Karolina Pliskova who fought through to her third straight Rome final -- she won the title back in 2019. But Swiatek was way too much for her to handle on Sunday. The on-paper underdog didn't drop a game in the 46-minute match, barely even lost a point, double-bagelling her opponent in the most lopsided Premier-level final since 1988.

The win, the third of Swiatek's still-nascent career, is her first truly big statement of the season -- she picked up a title in Adelaide back in February -- and should push her into the top ten for the first time in her career -- an honor that seems a long time coming thanks to the revised ranking system. But more importantly it should put her back on track as she looks to defend her big title in Paris. And if she plays at the level she did today, she has a pretty good shot at doing it.

The Men

Things were a little less cut and dry in the men's final, but that's what you'd expect when you have the two best clay court players, arguably of all time, facing off in their 57^th career meeting with another Masters title on the line. But despite their years-long dominance, here too, the road to the final was not easy for either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal.

The top seed and world #1 has proved himself surprisingly fallible in recent months. After his record ninth trophy at the Australian Open, he lay a little low, skipping Miami and not surfacing again until Monte Carlo, where he was stunned by Dan Evans in the third round. A week later in his homeland event in Belgrade, he lost to 2021 standout Aslan Karatsev, and he then pulled out of Madrid.

Returning to Rome to defend his title he played well early, but was caught off guard by Monte Carlo champ Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals, getting down a set and a break before rain suspended the match. He somehow found it in him to regroup on Saturday, get the win, and survive a nearly-three hour slugfest against Lorenzo Sonego -- who, you remember, beat him last year in Vienna -- in the semis. After more than five hours on court, he'd have to get right back to it on Sunday.

Nadal may have had an easier few days recently -- he avenged a loss to Madrid champ Alexander Zverev on Friday and saved all four break points he faced against Reilly Opelka in the semis -- but that doesn't mean he hasn't been tested. He's been surprisingly unprolific during his usually breezy clay court season, with losses not just to Zverev, but to Andrey Rublev too, and he even faced match points against Denis Shapovalov in the third round here, before rebounding.

But in spite of all the drama and hard work these two had already put in this week, they showed up to Sunday's final to give us more. What else should we expect? In their 29^th meeting with a title on the line, Djokovic came out swinging first, getting the early break before Rafa came barreling back. He captured the first set, but got in a bit of trouble when Nole took the second 6-1. It appeared his long Saturday had little effect on his game today and he was back to top shape. But Nadal was able to get a stave off a couple of threats early in the decider and broke deep in the third, holding on to capture the win and get within one match of even in their all-time head-to-head.

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So what will all this mean as we get ready for Paris? Well it certainly calms the nerves of any Rafa fans who was starting to get nervous. And it certainly bolsters the case for Swiatek to repeat her own breakout success. But there are a lot of other players in the wings ready to take the crowns themselves. And maybe this year, more than any in recent memory, there's a shot for a couple of them to do it.

Comeback Stories

It's been a long year-plus for everyone, and tennis players are no exception. Of course the struggles on court pale in comparison to what's been going on around the world, but it's easy to see that some who were riding high at the end of 2019 have been on shaky footing the last few months.

But some recent performances in Rome suggest things may swinging back in their favor.

Revenge in Rome!@RafaelNadal ends a run of three defeats to Zverev with a 6-3 6-4 victory in the Italian capital.#IBI21 pic.twitter.com/VYEfaXc3xM

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 14, 2021

I'll start with Karolina Pliskova who came into last season as #2 in the world. She'd picked up three titles in 2019 and kicked off the new year with another one in Brisbane, beating Naomi Osaka in the semis. But since then she's been pretty quiet, losing early at all the Slams, getting upset by Jessica Pegula (three times in a row!), Danielle Collins, and even then-world #292 Anastasia Gasanova.

She came to Rome the 9^th seed, and while she's been pretty consistent here -- she won the title in 2019 and made the final last year -- I wasn't putting too much stock in her. But she's been on point so far, beating veterans Anastasija Sevastova and Vera Zvonareva before today coming back from a set down to take out a resurgent Jelena Ostapenko, a former champion at Roland Garros. Back in the semis again, the pressure will be on, but she might just have her confidence back to keep going.

She'll have to get past another comeback kid to do it though. Veteran Petra Martic climbed to a career high of #14 in the world while I wasn't looking, thanks to a solid 2019 season where she won the title in Istanbul, made the semis in Stuttgart and the quarters at the French Open. This year has been a much different story, though -- she's got a 4-8 record, with five of those losses coming in first rounds, and she hadn't gotten a win yet on clay, arguably her best surface.

She's turning things around this week though -- after avenging her Yarra Valley loss to Shelby Rogers in her Rome opener, she took out Kiki Mladenkovic (who'd beaten Belinda Bencic) and Nadia Podoroska (who'd stunned Serena Williams) to set up a quarterfinal against Jessica Pegula (who'd shocked Naomi Osaka). Here too I didn't give her much of a shot -- Pegula may be ranked lower, but she's cleary been having the better year. But Martic demonstrated her edge on these courts, knocking out her opponent in straight sets and earning her the first Premier-level semi of her career. And in a battle with Pliskova, I really don't know who has the advantage.

And finally there's a case of, if not entirely a comeback, then certainly revenge. After all, Rafael Nadal is still #3 in the world and he did pick up a record 12^th title in Barcelona last month. But he's also shown he can be vulnerable on the surface he's dominated for the last sixteen years. He was stunned by Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo and notched a third straight loss to Alexander Zverev in Madrid. And just yesterday he was down a set and a break (plus two match points!) before sealing a win against Denis Shapovalov.

That had me worried when he faced off against Zverev for a second week in a row earlier today. But this time Rafa wrote a different story. The nine-time champion in Rome fought off all eight break points he faced in the second set and secured the win in just under two hours. He'll now face Reilly Opelka in the semis, and while the big serving American has been impressive himself this week, Nadal is 11-0 in this round at this venue. Of course that doesn't guarantee a win by any means, but I'm sure hoping he's found the game he seems to have been struggling with a bit this season.