Melbourne Supremacy

It's hard to pick the word to best describe what went down at the Australian Open men's final on Sunday. Epic? Gutsy? Brilliant? Inspiring? Just plain long?

It was at once all those things, and probably a great deal more.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, the two best athletes in the sport over the last twelve months, took the court in their third consecutive Grand Slam final, ironically the first time they'd ever met in Melbourne. The top-ranked Serb came in the defending champion, twice before a winner here, while the Spaniard, himself the titleist here in 2009, had made it past the quarterfinals for the first time since. He was better rested, some would argue, having an extra day's rest after his fairly routine defeat of Roger Federer in the semis -- Novak had just endured a nail-biting five setter against Andy Murray on Friday night, one which took just shy of five hours to complete. But from the get-go neither showed any signs of fatigue.

Nadal started off strong, dropping just one point in his first two service games and earning the first break to go up 2-3. But he struggled to consolidate the next game and ended up allowing Nole to draw back even a few minutes later. He ultimately closed out the set, but Djokovic turned the tables on the world #2 for the next two hours, cleaning up his errors, finding every angle and winning all but two points on serve in the third set. When the fourth began, it looked like all the momentum was squarely in his court, but Nadal remained strong. Neither allowed a break opportunity in that set, and after nearly an hour and a half -- and a ten minute delay during which the roof over Rod Laver Arena was closed for rain -- a reinvigorated Spaniard ran off with the tiebreak and forced the pair's first five setter in thirty meetings.

The decider seemed to be going in his favor too. Rafa was able to run his opponent around the court better early, took advantage of what seemed to be flagging energy from the Serb. On his first break chance since the second set, Nadal watched a Djokovic forehand sail long and looked to be in control again. But after building a lead in the next game, he missed the line on what should have been an easy shot and wasn't able to consolidate. When Djokovic broke again to take a 6-5 lead, Rafa was unable to convert an opportunity to draw back even the next game, and after nearly six hours -- the longest match ever at a Major final -- Nole was finally able to repeat: both as champion and as Nadal's newest, and possibly most irksome, foil.



Now three of Djokovic's five Major titles have come Down Under -- that's just one short of Roger Federer's and Andre Agassi's Open Era record, and playing the best tennis of his life at just twenty-four years of age, you have to think there's more to come. It sure seems like Melbourne has become his home away from home, the place he made his first big breakthrough in 2008, the place he continues to make a stand today.

But his performance here is even more impressive than that -- he's now solidly beaten every man in the top five at the Australian Open, some in convincing form, others after surviving prolonged battles, often with little time to rest between. So far he's been able to translate that into success at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open -- the trophy at Roland Garros is probably not far away. And by continuing the domination he began here last year, it'll be difficult for almost anyone else to make a dent in his force.

"What Happened?"

Those were the words we saw Victoria Azarenka say after she fell to her knees Saturday night in Melbourne. What had happened was that she had just become the 2012 Australian Open champion and the brand new #1 female tennis player in the world.

But despite her disbelief -- "I don't know what's going on," and "I don't understand," were her other reactions -- this was not something that just "happened", but rather something that's been in the works for quite some time. Making her seventh appearance in the main draw here -- the first a year after she won the Juniors' title in 2005 -- Vika has always done well Down Under. For three straight years she lost to Serena Williams, twice after winning the first set. She was my early pick to take this title two years in a row, but some tough draws at the Majors, a few emotional meltdowns, and a couple problems enduring long matches in extreme heat kept her from ever making a real push at the Slams. Despite all her strengths she her first semi came just last June at the All England Club, but she lost a tough three-setter to eventual Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova.

She's finally had her breakthrough, though. Coming to Melbourne only days after winning the title in Sydney, she was in danger of suffering from fatigue, as she has in the past. But a more fit, mentally stable Azarenka seemed no worse for the wear from the get-go. She lost just twelve games in her first four rounds, holding serve straight through the quarters. She dropped a tiebreak to Aggie Radwanska and struggled a bit, but eventually closed out, against defending champion Kim Clijsters in the semis. In her first Slam final she was the on-paper favorite against three-time Major champion Maria Sharapova, but pundits all wondered if the once-volatile Azarenka would succumb to nerves on the big court.

At first it sure looked like that would be the case. Sharapova opened by breaking the upstart's serve and consolidated for a two-game lead. But the tables turned quickly once Vika finally got on the board. She broke Maria at love in the fourth game and came back from game points down in the eighth to finally get ahead. She faced a couple break points in the second set, but some powerful groundstrokes and a nearly immaculate game never allowed the Russian to get back in the match. From three-all in the opener, Azarenka rattled off nine straight games, delivering the first bagel set in a Major final since Serena Williams did it to Dinara Safina here three years ago. With it came her maiden Grand Slam, the top ranking, and possibly a new era in the women's sport.



It's taken some time for the new guard in tennis to really assert themselves. But now with Azarenka and Wimbledon's Kvitova breaking through, even while the previous generation's stars are still out and fighting, it could very well be their time to shine. For now, though, the spotlight has shifted its focus squarely on the twenty-two year old from Belarus, and something tells me, the way she's playing, it might stay there awhile.

A Lot on the Line

The finals are set down in Melbourne, and despite upsets on both sides of the draw throughout the past two weeks, it sure seems like the best players have survived. And it's a good thing, too -- for some reason this year it seems like there's a lot more at stake than just a trophy or two.

For the women one thing's clear -- the winner of Saturday's final will rise to #1 in the sport, and people will finally stop complaining the top-ranked player doesn't hold a Grand Slam title.

Maria Sharapova's been there before, of course, first rising to the top spot back in mid-2005, but it's been a while since she's really seemed on her game. The last of her three Major titles came exactly four years ago when she was just twenty-years old, and after shoulder surgery sidelined her for the back half of that season, she fell out of the top hundred. She's clearly had a good twelve months, though, winning premier titles in Rome and Cincinnati and getting back to the final last year at Wimbledon. But a trophy here would truly cement her comeback, and the way she's been playing -- dropping sets only to up-and-comer Sabine Lisicki and her All England Club vanquisher Petra Kvitova -- it's certainly in her sights.

She'll first have to get through first-time Slam finalist Victoria Azarenka though, and my pick at the start of the year to bring home this trophy has had her own career-making run the last few months. After returning to the winner's circle in Miami -- by beating MaSha, by the way -- she picked up another two titles in 2011, came in second at the year-end finals, and kicked off this season with a trophy in Sydney. Hopefully after dominating her early round opponents and dismissing defending champion Kim Clijsters in the semis, she won't suffer a letdown Saturday -- she has the chops to beat Sharapova, as long as she doesn't let her nerves get in the way.

One thing worth noting, though -- if Vika wins the title and breaks the Grand Slam seal, she'll earn enough points to keep her far ahead of next week's #2 Kvitova. If MaSha gets the win, however, she'll have less than two hundred points more than Azarenka. That means it may only take a few tournaments more for the Belorussian to eclipse her -- and with the French Open still four months away, Vika could very well surpass her before she gets another chance to win that maiden Major. So that little respite we get from hearing about the Slam-less #1 may be pretty short-lived, and could soon have another target.

The top spot on the men's side won't be up for grabs this weekend, but there's something just as important at stake in their final -- pride.

Defending champion Novak Djokovic comes back to Melbourne after a whirlwind year brought him ten titles and three Grand Slams along with the #1 ranking. After coming back on Friday from a one-to-two set deficit against Andy Murray, my reluctant pick to win the trophy, he's gone a long way to show that last year was no fluke -- and that he's not quite yet in danger of burning out. He'll have a little less time to recover from his semi, but something tells me he'll put up just as big a fight on Sunday.

His opponent will have something to say about that, of course. The champion here in 2009, Rafael Nadal has lost his last six meetings with Nole -- all in finals, the last two at Slams -- and will want to prove his contemporary doesn't, in fact, have his number. It's another ironic situation, considering how Rafa has dominated his biggest rival Roger Federer over the last eight years, yet continues to regard him as the "Greatest of all Time". It won't be an easy win for the Spaniard -- this is his first trip past the quarters Down Under since that title run -- and Nole seems to be much more comfortable on this particular court. But if he can pull off a win over his newest adversary this time around, it could set the stage for quite the interesting year.

They might not be the match-ups we expected to see come championship weekend in Melbourne, but any of these four players have spent the last fortnight proving they deserve to be here. And after their struggles, their breakthroughs and their triumphs, they should each be proud of what they've accomplished.

Still, getting that one more win will certainly be icing on their 2012 Aussie Open cake.

1, 2, 3, 4?

We're down to the final four at this year's Australian Open, and for the fourth time since 2008 it'll be a familiar set of faces battling for the men's crown. It's the top men still left standing as we enter the semis -- their rankings and opponents have been shuffled around a bit, though, and that could lead to a few more sparks than we might otherwise expect.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer kick off semifinal action on Thursday, the first time they've met before the championship round of a Major since 2005. Of course, the Spaniard leads the pair's overall head-to-head, winning nearly two-thirds of their meetings, but Roger holds the slight edge on hard courts and won their last battle at the 2011 year-end finals.



There were some clouds over their heads coming into this tournament -- Nadal struggled with a knee injury and the Swiss withdrew before his semi in Doha -- but both have been dominant in their matches down in Melbourne. Though Rafa lost a set to Tomas Berdych in their quarterfinal on Tuesday, neither have given any of their opponents much of a look so far this fortnight. Then again, neither have been given any challenges quite as tough as each other to date.

That should change on Thursday, though. The last time the two met in Australia -- in that amazing 2009 final -- we were treated to an epic four-hour, twenty-minute, five-set thriller which earned Nadal his first hardcourt Slam. But he hasn't made it back to the semis since, and something tells me we might be in for a different result this time around. Roger ended 2011 with one of the hottest streaks on Tour, and having gone almost two years now without a Major title, you have to think pure hunger will drive him to a win. And if he gets it, there may be no stopping him.

Of course there will be the other semifinal survivor to contend with. On Friday defending champion Novak Djokovic will face last year's runner-up Andy Murray in a rematch of the 2011 final, only one round earlier. It'll be the pair's eleventh career meeting, with the world #1 currently holding a 6-4 edge, but they're dead even on this surface. Somewhat surprisingly, though, this will be only their second battle at a Slam, and these days it's the Serb who has all the experience there.



But the Scot might not be in for a total repeat of last year's thrashing. Murray had the lead on Nole in the Cincinnati finals this past August, and probably would have won the match even if Djokovic hadn't retired. And he's coming off a title in Brisbane -- along with the three Asia trophies he earned to end last season -- so he's arguably riding the other big momentum wave in the sport. Meanwhile, after his amazing run last year, I'm frankly a little surprised Nole has any juice left in him. But both have been equally dominant so far Down Under, and there's no telling what they'll be capable of while playing at their best.

All four of these guys have been at the top of the game for so long, and are so familiar with each other's games, that there's no way to say for sure who'll come out on top. Of course, I grudgingly picked Murray to ultimately walk away with the title, and even with the depth of experience left in the draw, that very well could still happen. And the next few days of play could set the stage for an even bigger shake-up at the top of this sport over the next few months.

Where Things Get Interesting...

Well this is hardly the women's quarterfinal we were expecting to see in Melbourne.

If you thought Kim Clijsters would have survived the rematch of last year's final with Na Li, you probably didn't think she'd have to save four match points to do it. If your money was on Maria Sharapova to stage her Grand Slam comeback, you might have given up hope after she lost six games in a row -- and a two-break lead -- against Sabine Lisicki in their first set last night. If you didn't think Serena Williams was going to win the whole thing, you probably at least thought she'd still be standing today, even if she'd had to "upset" seventh seeded Vera Zvonareva in the round of sixteen.

As it stands now only two of those three remain in the draw, and the battles everyone has been through could mean we're in for even more surprises.

Of course, the big surprise in this year's play has been the emergence of twenty-three year old Ekaterina Makarova, once ranked as high as #29 in the world but for now out of the top fifty. After upsetting my black horse Kaia Kanepi in her opener, she went on to take out Zvonareva in the third round and then, to the shock and awe of the tennis world, drubbed Serena on Monday, breaking the American's big serve five times.

You might think she'd be exhausted by now, that she has to run out of steam eventually, and against veteran countrywoman Sharapova in the next round, she'll surely be done for. But Makarova's only title, Eastbourne in 2010, came when she beat five top-twenty players in a row -- after she'd already battled through the qualifying rounds. So she's certainly capable of pulling off a few more, especially with a day of rest in between. Still, you have to like Sharapova's chances in the next round. Though she was put to the test Monday, ultimately her experience helped pull her past the big-hitting Lisicki, and with the draw now much more open for her, she now has a tremendous opportunity to return to the winner's circle here.

She'll probably have to contend with her Wimbledon vanquisher Petra Kvitova first, though. The Czech, who has the #1 ranking in her sights, has been playing more consistently than anyone this past week, and after a small hiccup against Carla Suarez Navarro in the second round she has never looked back. She'll meet the other Cinderella of this tournament in the quarters, Sara Errani. Though the Italian's only met one seeded player on the way to her first even Major quarterfinal, she staged a huge comeback against Sorana Cirstea in the third round and soundly defeated 2010 semifinalist Jie Zheng early Monday -- she might be able to put up just as big a fight against the heavy favorite.

The other half of the draw has played out much more according to plan. Victoria Azarenka and Aggie Radwanska both efficiently worked through their matches, setting up the only quarter where the expected seeds survived. The Belarusian is the on-paper favorite, and with a 6-3 record against the eighth seed, she has history on her side. But Radwanska did beat her next opponent on the way to her title in Tokyo last year, so anything is possible.

All of that maneuvering, though, may have opened the door widest for current world #1 Caroline Wozniacki, dogged for the better part of the last year for holding the ranking while going noticeably Slam-less. Yes, she next faces defending champion Clijsters in her quarterfinal match, a woman she's never beaten and only taken one set from. But after the veteran's tumble on Sunday, one which nearly lost her the match, Wozniacki is arguably the more fit of the two. And if she can move even slightly better than her far-more-experienced rival when they meet Tuesday, she might very well cause the non-paper upset -- and given the way her half of the draw has unfolded, that could be a ticket right to her second Major final.

So it sure looks like Serena's early exit has really wreaked havoc on the women's draw in Melbourne -- it may let some old hands rise back to the top, or it could give the new guard a chance to shine. But it won't be the only factor which determines this year's champion. If any of these ladies play their cards right, it could mean a big breakthrough.

The Quiet Killers

There are a whole lot of headline-grabbing questions flying this year at the Australian Open. Will Novak Djokovic repeat as champion? Can Serena Williams return to the winner's podium? Will Roger Federer win another Slam? Can world #1 Caroline Wozniacki silence her critics and finally win a Major? Will Australian upstart Bernard Tomic continue his win streak in the second week? But while most of our attention has been focused on the glamourous stories of this fortnight, a couple players are quietly grinding through their draws without making any fuss -- and they might just take us for a bigger rise as we head into week two.

Jelena Jankovic made the semifinals in Melbourne back in 2008, but has struggled Down Under since. The former #1 fell out of the top ten last year and went title-less for the first time since 2006. But she's been unstoppable so far here, dropping just two games in each of her first and third rounds and staying aggressive. Although she's made way more errors than winners, JJ has kept her first serve percentage high and won the majority of her net approaches. It'll get tougher here on out, of course -- with a fourth round date with Caroline Wozniacki, who's won their last three meetings, she's going to have to raise her game. But if she can take advantage of her opponent's vulnerabilities, she could ride the momentum a few rounds more.

In the same half of the draw Aggie Radwanska, a player with one of the hottest ends to 2011 on Tour, has also been slowly dismantling her challengers. Though she dropped her opening set to Bethanie Mattek-Sands, she did so after digging herself out of a two-break deficit. She's been much more solid since, losing serve only once in her next two matches and eliminating talented Kazakh Galina Voskoboeva in just over an hour. She meets twenty-second seed Julia Goerges for the first time in the fourth round, but the German, much more of a force on clay, shouldn't be too much of a problem. If Aggie is able to make the quarters, it might just give her the confidence she needs to make a real play for the title.

The men's bracket has some similarly under-appreciated forces still in the draw. One-time Wimbledon finalist flew a bit under the radar last year but managed a trip to the semis in London and beat higher-ranked Jo-Wilfried Tsgona and Andy Murray at tournaments late into the fall. The seventh seed in Melbourne made the quarters in 2011, and he might be in a good position to improve on that -- after dropping a set to a tricky Albert Ramos in his opener, he hasn't lost serve since. He withstood sixteen aces from mighty Kevin Anderson on Friday and earned the right to meet fellow under-the-radar player Nicolas Almagro in the sweet sixteen. The Czech has a 4-2 record over the tenth seed, but they've only met once on a hard court, and something tells me his serve and return will get the job done.

Two-time Auckland champion David Ferrer has had a few more scares than his colleagues over his first three rounds but, still standing, he might be in better shape now. He survived a three-and-a-half hour slugfest against American Ryan Sweeting in the first round and found himself down 0-4 early to Juan Ignacio Chela on Friday. But he battled out of the hole and ultimately finished off the match in straight sets. Next up for last year's semifinalist will be France's Richard Gasquet, a man he's lost to only once in their six previous meetings. They haven't met since 2009, but the fifth seed should still be the favorite, and if he is able to set up the likely match with Novak Djokovic in the quarters, he has the confidence of a London win over the world #1 to help him go even farther.

For all these guys it might be a bit of a blessing that the Australian Open spotlight has shifted away from them -- with all the attention focused elsewhere, there's much less chance they'll fold under the pressure. Sure, if they keep up their winning ways, they'll inevitably find themselves on center stage eventually. And perhaps when they get there, they'll be able to take everyone by surprise.

Holes in the Draws

With four days, two rounds and almost two hundred matches under our belts we've reached that point in a Grand Slam draw where, had everything gone according to plan, the longest shots for the title have been eliminated and we're left just with seeds playing seeds. But things seldom, if ever, work out that way -- and this year's action at the Australian Open has already cleared the path to opportunity. And not just for the favorites who've survived.

Somewhat surprisingly, the top section of the women's draw remains relatively unharmed -- Caroline Wozniacki battled through wrist injury to make the third round, and former #1 Jelena Jankovic has so far been solid. The only non-seed to battle through their immediate section of the bracket is American Chrstina McHale, currently ranked #42 in the world. She's certainly the underdog, but could very well take advantage of JJ's spottiness in their next match, and after her win over Wozniacki in Cincinnati last year, she should have the confidence to beat her again if that meeting comes to pass.

Galina Voskoboeva may have found herself a similar opportunity. The veteran Kazakh has never gotten past the third round of a Major, but after trouncing Hobart runner-up Yanina Wickmayer in her opener and edging out former #31 Tsvetana Pironkova a match later, she might be in the position to do that now. On Friday she'll meet Aggie Radwanska, a tough and improving player, but one that is certainly capable of being upset. And with either recently-quiet Julia Goerges or world #80 Romina Oprandi waiting for her in the round of sixteen, the door might be open for the twenty-seven year old to pull through.

Of course, upsets and breakthroughs have thinned out the draws for some ladies. Marion Bartoli is the only seed remaining in her section of the draw, and with U.S. Open champ Sam Stosur summarily ousted in the first round, she's the heavy on-paper favorite. But one-time world #15 Jie Zheng is playing well above her ranking and, coming off a title in Auckland, has shown she's capable of beating the top players. The twenty-eight year old beat Bartoli on her way to the semifinals here in 2010, so she has experience on her side. And with the potential of a fourth round meeting against Sorana Cirstea or Sara Errani, I wouldn't be surprised to see her go farther.

It's not all bad news for the favorites, though. My pick to win the title, Victoria Azarenka, may have the most thinned out draw of the bunch. Her fiercest competition could come in the third round from Mona Barthel, a twenty-one year old who had never been ranked in the top fifty before her surprise run to the Hobart title last week. But with Iveta Benesova and Nina Bratchikova taking out the other two seeds in her week-one path, you have to like her chances to keep her streak going at least a few rounds longer.

Things have opened up on the men's side too. Kei Nishikori, seeded for the first-time at a Major, should have met Gilles Simon in his third round, but after the twelfth seed lost a late-night battle on Thursday, he'll instead get a less formidable opponent in Julien Benneteau. The veteran Frenchman shouldn't be ignored, of course -- he beat four higher-ranked opponents on his way to the Sydney final last week -- but for a man still getting his bearings as part of the sport's elite, Nishikori might be breathing a little lighter.

After the loss of Mardy Fish on Wednesday took the last seed out of his section of the bracket, Juan Martin Del Potro also could benefit from a slightly depleted draw. The 2009 U.S. Open champion, who fell in the second round here last year, next faces world #79 Yen-Hsun Lu, who's never made it past the third round here. His biggest threat will likely come a round later from veteran Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but if the Argentine is playing at even close to his best, he has more than a good shot of getting back to the quarters.

But, like with the women, a couple underdogs are seeing less treacherous paths too. Bernard Tomic cleared much of the way himself, stunning Fernando Verdasco in a four-hour first round, then ousting former top-twenty player Sam Querrey two days later. He'll meet last year's Cinderella quarterfinalist Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday, a man he's never beaten before. But the Australian will have the crowd on his side during this match and, playing better ball than he has in the past, might just cause the upset. His reward would most likely be a fourth-round match against Roger Federer, so Tomic shouldn't get his hopes up too high, but if he keeps improving his play, it won't be long before he's getting wins over these top guys.

Of course everything's far from certain -- even for the players who should win their next few rounds in Melbourne. But with opportunities opening up all over the place this year, there may never have been a better chance to make a real statement.