No Contest

The draws in Madrid were rife with upsets from the start this year, but when all was said and done it was some of the strongest stars in the sport left standing on finals weekend. A couple have only just come into their own on this tricky surface, but the ultimate winners were those who've shown, time and again, just how much of a threat they are, no matter what court they're playing on.

Maria Sharapova once described herself as a cow on ice when she played on clay, but a title at Roland Garros last year, followed by a repeat in Stuttgart might belie that statement. She made her way to the Madrid final, her fourth of the year, without dropping a set. Defending champion Serena Williams, meanwhile, never a sure thing on the surface herself, had actually had a few hiccups along the way -- after being pushed to a tiebreak in her opening set with Yulia Putintseva and losing serve to Lourdes Dominguez-Lino, she dropped a weird bagel to Anabel Medina Garrigues in the quarters. But she too eventually made her fourth championship match of the year, extending her win streak to eighteen straight matches since Doha.

The history between these two champions has been long, but fairly one-sided. Since Maria's breakthrough win at Wimbledon nine years ago, she's been a disappointing 1-11 against the world #1, notching nine sets in which she won just one game or less. The Russian's best recent attempt came in the Miami final, where she'd scored an early lead against her rival, but it's remained a long, long time since she's managed a defeat. And this weekend would keep the stretch going -- in the hour-plus match, Maria was able to convert just one of two break chances and won barely a third of her second serve attempts. Serena stayed the stronger player again and in straight set win, earned her seventh clay court title and put her, once again, in prime position to finally end a long drought in Paris. A loss-less season hasn't necessarily meant guaranteed success in Paris, of course, but Williams' repeat on a court that's never been her best might set the stage for quite a run at the next Grand Slam.

The men's final wasn't quite as big battle between two greats, but it certainly pitted one rising star against a seasoned, if imperfect, champion. Stanislas Wawrinka, having won three of his four titles on clay during his career, was coming off a huge victory over clay specialist David Ferrer in Estoril and had upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych already in Madrid. Rafael Nadal, on the other hand, had given up his stranglehold in Monte Carlo, and shown he could be beaten by even less formidable foes on his best surface. Still, since returning to play in February, he'd made at least the championship match of every event he'd played and won three titles to boot. He was seeded just fifth in his homeland's Masters, and though he faced quite a scare against Ferrer in the quarters, eventually kept his final streak running strong.

Nadal's had a tough time in Madrid in the past -- his one title here is largely overshadowed by losses to big rivals and weird tricks of weird surfaces. And against a top tier player like Wawrinka, Rafa's fate was far from certain on Sunday. But he took control from the start, dropped just three points on his first serve and didn't allow a break opportunity during the match. Winning an impressive 22-7 points on return, he never gave the Swiss a chance to get in the match, and with his first clay court Masters of the year under his belt now, his confidence must be greatly increased as he looks to close out the season.

While all four of this weekend's finalists have shown they are forces on the surface, the champions' dominance in their respective finals proves they're still the favorites against any opponent. If they are able to keep it up, there's few who will be able to stop them -- and the battles for even the biggest titles this year might be wrapped up before they even start.

Random Acts

That weird blue clay may be a thing of the past, but that doesn't mean things are back to normal in Madrid. There have been upsets from the start, and even the most decorated clay courters have already been shown the door -- and with just one top ten player not making the trip to Spain*, that's no easy accomplishment. So for those still standing as we head into the final weekend, chances may not be better to make a real statement.

Kaia Kanepi is on what seems like her hundredth career comeback -- the Estonian made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros back in 2008, but a knee injury hampered her play for several months the next year; she reached the quarters at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open in 2010, but lost momentum again in 2011, and she was in and out of Tour-level play throughout last season, battling an achilles injury that pushed her ranking back out of the top thirty. She's rebuilding again this year, but fell short of repeating as champion in Estoril. She's made better strides this week though -- she opened with a win in Madrid over former top-tenner Flavia Pennetta and then got one-sided revenge over her Portugal vanquisher Carla Suarez Navarro. Earlier today she battled through veteran Daniela Hantuchova to make the quarters, her best showing at a Premier event in almost a year. She'll have a tough task against Maria Sharapova in the next round, of course, but Kanepi's not one to be overlooked -- if she strikes early, she might just be able to put another big win on her resume.

Ekaterina Makarova has been scoring those "W"'s for years, beating Victoria Azarenka in the 2010 Eastbourne final and stunning Serena Williams in Australia last year. She's become a mainstay in the top thirty in 2013, but four first round losses coming into this event may have shaken her confidence a bit. She was instrumental in securing Russian victory at Fed Cup last month, though, and she hit the ground running this week in Spain. She got through Lucie Safarova in her opener and came from behind against third-seeded Azarenka late on Tuesday. Against recently struggling Marion Bartoli today, Makarova took control immediately, staving off all four break chances and jumping over her opponent on the return.

For her efforts she might get the honor of meeting another underdog in Varvara Lepchenko, whose so far ceded a two-break lead to seventh-seeded clay court specialist Sara Errani, a winner of five titles on the surface in the past year. Lepchenko has earned her chops on dirt too, though, making the fourth round of the French Open in 2012 and working her way from triple-digit rankings at the start of last year to top thirty now. She opened with a win over Roberta Vinci and then got a walkover from one-time Stuttgart champ Julia Goerges. She might be at a disadvantage even if she makes it through her third round -- Makarova won the pair's only previous meeting -- but there's no reason to believe the American #4 can't pull off a surprise.

The men's side hasn't been without upsets either and, maybe surprisingly, theirs have cut even deeper into the top ranks. Grigor Dimitrov, long hailed as "Baby Fed" for his similarity to the record-holding former #1, has only recently made good on these expectations -- since losing the final in Brisbane, he made the semis in Rotterdam and even took a set off Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo. This week, though, he really started to shine -- in a three-plus hour match against 2011 champion Novak Djokovic, he withstood two tight tiebreaks and eked out a win with just two more points than his much-heralded opponent. We'll see how worn out he is when he faces Oeiras champion Stanislas Wawrinka later today, but with his first career victory over a top five player finally under his belt, he should be confident that more can come.

Rivaling that result for most shocking of the tournament is what we saw this afternoon from Roger Federer. Defending Madrid titleist Roger Federer had only lost before the semifinals here once, and that was way back in 2002 when he made the quarters. Though he regained the #2 ranking from Andy Murray a few weeks back, he hasn't won a trophy yet this year, technically making this his least productive season since the turn of the century. His hopes to change that momentum were blunted today, though, when he met Japan's Kei Nishikori, rebuilding his own career over the last four years. The twenty-three year old stunned Roger to take the first set and, more impressively, held tough after losing the second 6-1. He got a break early in the decider, took advantage or weak serving by the legend and barely allowed Federer to win half his points on serve. After just over ninety minutes, he'd reached his first Masters quarter since 2011, but better yet scored the biggest win of his career.

Upsets are not uncommon at big events, of course, but the abundance of them in Madrid in recent years seems disproportionate. With no seeds safe, it seems, anything can and will happen on these courts. The winners that eventually emerge should know they've survived some of the biggest competition out there -- after all some of the best things ultimately came out of chaos.

World #7 Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out with a viral infection, the only man or woman in the top ten to miss the Mutua Madrid Open this year.

The Surprise Factor

Here's the thing about clay -- you really never know what's going to happen. Ever.

And this weekend a couple players proved they could get down and dirty, even when facing competition much more accomplished on the surface.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova had won all four of her previous titles on hardcourts and had only once made it into the second week of the French Open. The Russian progressed through the draw by the skin of her teeth -- she needed three sets to get through both Elena Vesnina and virtually unknown Romina Oprandi, dropping a bagel to the Swiss in the semis. Meanwhile her opponent in the Oeiras final this weekend, young Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro, was practically raised on the dirt. Though she hadn't yet won a title in her career, she had played for four championships on clay, even getting to the final Saturday in Portugal last year. Her road to this final had been smooth as well -- she hadn't dropped a set all week and easily ousted a resurgent Kaia Kanepi in the last four.

She had a leg up against Pavs in the final, too, breaking her opponent in the first service game and giving her trouble on serve throughout early play. But Anastasia had won the pair's previous four meetings and wasn't about to end her streak. After a visit from new coach, soon-to-be Hall of Famer Martina Hingis, the third seed was able to regroup -- she fought back from the deficit and dominated throughout the second set. After just over ninety minutes, the more experienced lady was left holding the trophy, pulling her to 5-2 in WTA finals. CSN falls to a less impressive 0-5, but her ability on these courts can't be ignored -- today she turned right around to win her Madrid first round against Sam Stosur, so hope is clearly not lost. And her strength only makes Pavs' accomplishment more noteworthy -- if she can win here, afterall, who knows where else she'll thrive.

The results in the men's event might have been even more impressive. David Ferrer, a long-time staple in the top ten and often hailed as the best player without a Grand Slam title, is a more-than-intimidating 247-100 on clay and has won fully half of his twenty titles on the surface. He'd already won two crowns this season, but injury hampered his play since the American hardcourt season and he was pushed to a third set in his Oeiras opener. Still, against Stanislas Wawrinka, relatively middling at 64% on clay, he was the clear favorite in Sunday's final. The Swiss had pulled off a huge win over Andy Murray in Monte Carlo last month and reached the semis in Casablanca already, but he was tested from the start in Portugal -- he lost his opening set to Albert Ramos, was forced to a decider by qualifying upstart Pablo Carreno-Busta in the semis.

But he was ultimately better rested going into Sunday's final. Wawrinka ran away with the first set and didn't allow a break opportunity during the hour-long match. It was his first top-ten win of the season and secured his fourth career title with a 6-1, 6-4 victory. For a guy who's struggled to deliver a big impact on the big stages -- he was half of the most epic match of the 2013 Australian Open, but ultimately lost after five hours of play -- this might just have gained him ground in his efforts.

This weekend's victors in Portugal certainly had to pull off some big wins to get their trophies, and the fact that they did so against some of the strongest players on these courts makes it even more sweet. Whether these wins translate into greater successes once the stakes are raised remains to be seen, but if their performances so far is any indication, all the favorites better sit up and take notice.

Vets vs. Newbies

It's become a bit of a contest between old and new in Munich -- with top seeds getting upset throughout the week, we're left with a somewhat unusual crop of semifinalists. A couple have been decorated time and again while the others are fairly new to the winner's circle -- if they've been there at all. And as action winds down we might just find out if the seasoned pros are ready to give up the reins to young guns.

Top seeded Janko Tipsarevic ceded his spot in the final four earlier today when world #69 Daniel Brands notched his first top-ten win in nearly three years. The German had already delivered some solid results this year, reaching the quarters in Dubai and the semis in Doha, but this run might be the most impressive. He's made the semis in Munich before -- back in 2009 he beat Potito Starace and Julien Benneteau to get here -- but with wins over the Serbian #2 and Gael Monfils before him, he's faced and bested his biggest competition here. He has played three three-setters in a row, though, and might be a little more spent than his next opponent, Phillipp Kohlschreiber. His compatriot, the defending champion in fact, is going for his fifth career title and his third at the BMW Open. He hasn't dropped a set yet this week and won the pair's only previous meeting, so history is on his side. But twenty-five year old Brands might just be ready to make a move into the sport's top tiers, and a trip to his first ATP final would certainly put him solidly on that road. If he's able to keep the momentum he's seemed to have all week he could just make the statement he's been waiting to make.

Ivan Dodig has made a statement here and there in the past, but after a string of first-round losses last year pushed him out of the top fifty, it's been a while since he said anything above a whisper. He's made some strides to turn things around this season, though, making the third round in Indian Wells and beating Alexandr Dolgopolov in Delray Beach. This week in Germany, the Croat beat 2011 champ Nikolay Davydenko to start, ousted countryman Marin Cilic in his opener and earlier today repeated his victory over fifth-seeded Dolgopolov in straight sets. His task only gets tougher from here, of course -- next up is uber-veteran Tommy Haas, who's somewhat surprisingly never won the title in his homeland. Haas was challenged early by on-the-rebound Ernests Gulbis, but needed less than an hour to dismiss fellow German Florian Mayer earlier today. He also won his only match against Dodig, actually ending the underdog's run in Delray, so if Ivan's going to make another final, he's going to have to come out swinging from the start.

Clearly the burden will be on the non-seeds to deliver on Saturday, but given their performances so far this week there's no reason to believe they're incapable of big things. But the veterans will be out to stop them short, and won't go down easy. Whether it's ultimately time for them to step aside and let the upstarts take over remains to be seen, but this weekend's battles might just be a turning point for one of these guy's careers.

Comfort in the Familiar

We know this is the time of year when, really, anything can happen -- upsets on the clay are almost so commonplace now that we barely bat an eye. That's why it's almost reassuring that, after this weekend's action on the dirt, we're left with two long-time champions showing us all who's boss.

Defending Stuttgart champion Maria Sharapova has been having quite the year -- already a winner in Indian Wells, she's solidly back in the #2 spot and has been upping her game against the sport's best. She was rewarded with no easy road this week in Germany, where just one seed was ranked outside the top ten -- she lost a set to Lucie Safarova to start and was forced to a third by Ana Ivanovic a round later. She was further tested by a recently-rebounding Angelique Kerber in the semis, who seems to have found her game again after a weak start to the year.

Meanwhile 2011 French Open champ Na Li was making her own statement on the bottom half of the draw. An ankle injury had kept her largely out of play since reaching the final of the Australian Open, but clearly comfortable on the clay, she was able to step right back into action, albeit against some lower-profile players. She routed qualifier Mirjana Lucic and ended an impressive streak by American veteran Bethanie Mattek-Sands. Her only real test early was against fifth seed Petra Kvitova, but she scored that win and reached the final without losing a set.

But Li was no match for Sharapova in Sunday's final. Though the two have a pretty close history -- the Chinese star last denied Maria a chance for a rematch of last year's Melbourne final -- the Russian was able to get the upper hand this time. She got three-quarters of her first serves in, and only dropped eight of those points. She only allowed Li two break chances, and converted four of nine herself. On a surface which the six-foot-two, lithe champion has famously said makes her feel like a cow on ice, Sharapova needed just over ninety minutes to take the title, reminding us just how much her game has evolved.


Rafael Nadal has more than proven himself on this surface, of course, but the seven-time champion in Barcelona was coming off a week which could have been a sea change in this sport. But after a one-sided loss at the tournament which he has reigned for the better part of a decade, the Spaniard hit the ground running in his homeland -- he progressed easily through early rounds and even dismissed his biggest potential test, big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic, in straight sets in the semis. The win earned Rafa entrée into his sixth final of his injury-shortened year -- with three titles already, he's yet to lose before the championship round in 2013.

Fellow clay-court specialist Nicolas Almagro -- a disappointing 0-10 against his compatriot -- hoped to capitalize on what's seemed to be the slightly tarnished armor of Nadal, though. He'd been solid during his Spain campaign, besting a resurgent Juan Monaco in the quarters and benefiting from the hole left by top-seeded David Ferrer's ouster in the top half of the draw. It was, somewhat surprisingly, Nico's first trip to the Barcelona final -- in nine previous attempts, he'd only made the semis twice -- but possibly his best chance to score that elusive first win against his long-time rival.

But eventually experience won out -- Nadal may not have had the strongest service performance of his career -- he was broken twice -- but he pounced on his country's third best player the way he had on current Spanish #1 David Ferrer just a few weeks back. Winning seventy percent of his first serve points and more than half of Almagro's second attempts, he closed out the match in a much different hour-plus of action than what he'd endured a week before. With his eighth crown at Banc Sabadell Open, Rafa might have erased some pain from the Monte Carlo loss, but more importantly, he might have put himself back on course to close out the season.

We can't ignore the fact that both this week's repeat champions also went on to win at Roland Garros last year. That's not to say, of course, they've locked in victory just yet, but their performances last week could have set the stage for bigger wins to come.

And as they restore some semblance of normalcy during this often tumultuous time, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that the play's only getting better from here.

Spoiler Alert

With just about a month left until the French Open, now's the time for players to really dig in and make a push for this year's grandest clay court title. And while many of the sport's biggest stars concentrating their efforts this week and some higher profile tournaments, some lesser known names have been quietly pulling off some mighty big wins elsewhere on the dirt.

A handful of top-twenty players made their way over to Bucharest, with world #10 Janko Tipsarevic leading the pack. Upsets rocked the draw from the start, though -- Germany's Daniel Brands, a surprise semifinalist in Doha, was up a set and a break when wildcard Gael Monfils retired, and one-time top-tenner Mikhail Youzhny dropped at the hands of Victor Hanescu in his opener. But a couple others had even better success.

Last year's giant killer Lukas Rosol hasn't had many high-profile wins since, but some time on the Challenger's circuit and two big wins for the Czechs during Davis Cup action has helped him crack the top fifty this year. Momentum is on his side in Romania too -- he took out third-seeded Andreas Seppi in the second round, and a win today over Viktor Troicki gave him entry into his first ever ATP semifinal. He'll be rewarded with a battle against the highest seed left, Gilles Simon, which will be no easy task, to be sure. But if he can pull it off he might have set himself up for some real successes the rest of the year.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has had a little more success over the years -- he beat Andy Murray last year at Indian Wells and has a couple Tour titles to his name -- but it's been a while since he's done anything too noteworthy. Before Bucharest he'd only won two main draw matches this year and, since peaking at #23 in the world about two years ago, he's since fallen to near triple-digit rankings. But this week the Spaniard seems to have found his game again -- he took out Horacio Zeballos, the most surprising man to beat Rafael Nadal this year and backed it up with a come-from-behind win today over Tipsarevic. He'll meet Florian Mayer next -- a man who's also been struggling to recapture recent glory -- so there's no reason he can't make a real play for title #3 here.

There's plenty of opportunity for the ladies to deliver similar results in Marrakesh too. Top seeded Dominika Cibulkova pulled out after a long Fed Cup weekend and second seed Sorana Cirstea, largely pulling her career back in line after a breakout 2009 season, lost her opener in two quick sets. And that's allowed more than a few underdogs -- a couple of them veterans -- to pull through this week.

Chanelle Scheepers won her first and only title two years back in Guangzhou at the ripe "old" age of twenty-seven, but an unimpressive performance in 2012 send her out of the top fifty to end the year. She'd only won three Tour-level matches this year and most recently lost in the quarters of an ITF event in Pelham. The South African may have turned things around this week, though -- she dominated Cirstea in their opener and was similarly strong against rising French star Kristina Mladenovic earlier today. Her win set her up for a semifinal showdown against one-time Roland Garros champion Francesca Schiavone -- certainly no pushover, of course, but a big fight now could make everyone else sit up and take notice the rest of the season.

Thirty-two year old Lourdes Dominguez Lino has won two titles in her career, both in Bogotá, five years apart. She, not surprisingly, is something of a clay court specialist though, and lost every match she played this season before hitting the dirt. But she's finally hitting her stride in Morocco -- after defeating lucky seed Tsvetana Pironkova she took out defending champion Kiki Bertens in three tight sets. It'll be the Spaniard's first Tour semi in over two years, and maybe her best chance in a while to take home a title.

Her opponent on Saturday will be rising star Mandy Minella of Luxembourg, who first started grabbing headlines at the 2010 U.S. Open. She's won just a handful of main draw matches this year and has been hanging out just in the top hundred for a while. But a win over still-recovering Kaia Kanepi in the Marrakesh second round was followed by a solid three-set win over Silvia Soler-Espinosa on Friday. She's lost the only match she's played against LDL, back in Bogotá 2011, and hasn't had too much of a challenge yet this week -- she'll have to raise her game even further if she wants to reach that elusive first career final.

All these guys and girls have put up some big wins over the past week, and while there's plenty of work left to do before taking home a title, their performances should show they're capable of doing some damage. This is the time of year, after all, when not even the biggest or most consistent stars are safe -- and any of these athletes could prove themselves to be the big spoiler this spring.

The End of an Era

It's a little difficult to remember what life was like back when Rafael Nadal wasn't champion at Monte Carlo. But after this week's action at the first clay court Masters event of the season, we've gone back to exactly that world.

It was always going to be a tough task for the eight-time champion -- having missed seven months of action since Wimbledon last year, there was a lot of pressure on him to defend the boatload of points he'd accumulated at this time last year. But he was 17-1 since his return at Viña del Mar, had accumulated three titles already, including one which saw him defeat three top ten players in a row, and despite a couple tests during the week, eventually reached his ninth straight final in Monaco.

Meanwhile, world #1 Novak Djokovic faced challenges as well on his way to a middling-by-comparison third Monte Carlo championship -- an ankle injury threatened to keep him out of the event entirely, and he lost opening sets to both Mikhail Youzhny and Juan Monaco -- but he eventually got his game together in the later rounds.

And his renewed strength was apparent from the get-go in Sunday's rain-delayed final. He started off winning five straight games off Rafa, threatening to deliver the Spanish star his first bagel set on the dirt since Hamburg in 2007. Nadal tried to stage a bit of a comeback, capitalizing on Nole's errors to get one break back, but eventually dropped serve himself again and lost the set. Momentum seemed to shift in the second set though -- Nadal got a break early, and though he lost it soon after, he was able to eventually earn the right to serve out the set. But Djokovic had come with a mission -- with his shots consistently finding their marks and his errors getting cleaned up, he broke back for a tiebreak which he dominated from the first serve.

Nole's win harkens back to his stellar 2011 season when he stunned Nadal in four straight Masters finals, two on Rafa's favorite surface. Circumstances are different of course -- the Serb isn't running quite the streak he was then, and Nadal is still trying to get his groove back. But it sure looks like we're in for a few exciting weeks coming up. Now the question is, of course, whether Novak will be able to do it best-of-five.

After all, if he's ever going to complete the not-so-elusive (these days) Grand Slam, this could be his best shot to do it.