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August 29, 2014

Shaking Things Up

Things sure got intense at the U.S. Open the last few days, didn't they? After a Day One that saw only a couple notable upsets, we've now seen a total of nineteen seeds -- and counting -- sent home, including two top ten women and a handful of Grand Slam champions. And while many of the true favorites are still alive and kicking, there are plenty of others who could sneak through.

Novak Djokovic has spent only two hours on court for his first two matches, and though he came to New York looking a little lethargic, he seems to have shaken off any spiderwebs. But his next opponent, Sam Querrey, could pose his biggest challenge yet. The former top twenty player stunned Nole in the Paris Masters a few years back and, though, well off the highs of his career, is coming off a semifinal showing in Winston-Salem and a win here over twenty-eighth seed Guillermo Garcia Lopez. But he's not the biggest threat in the top half of the men's draw -- upstart Nick Kyrgios, vanquisher of Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, continued his coming out party by notching wins over both Mikhail Youzhny and Andreas Seppi. He could give fourth round opponent Tommy Robredo -- who was pushed to five sets on Thursday -- a run for the money. But the real sleeper here might be Leonardo Mayer, seeded at a Major for the first time in his career. The Argentine benefited from a retirement by Albert Montanes in his opener, but hasn't dropped a set yet -- while Kei Nishikori certainly won't be a pushover in his next round, the twenty-seven year old might just be primed to pull off an upset.

We don't have as much evidence for the bottom half of the bracket -- most of the guys in it have only played one match so far at the Open this year. Five-time champion Roger Federer is still on track for a quarterfinal meeting with Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov, but Gael Monfils, who's scored wins over both in the recent past, might be able to prevent that. The French showman won the first two sets off Andy Murray at Roland Garros and pushed Roger to three in Cincinnati earlier this month -- he's climbed back into the top thirty this year and seems ready to jump even higher. But the bigger opportunities for dark horses lie in the David Ferrer/Tomas Berdych quarter -- Kevin Anderson, who barely squeaked out of his opening round had a relatively easier time Friday against big serving Jerzy Janowicz. He'll face 2009 quarterfinalist Marin Cilic for a spot in the fourth round -- the Croat has long been one of the most underrated players on Tour and, the way the draw's opened up, might have an even better shot than Anderson to make an impact here.

Of course, as should be expected, the ladies' bracket is where things really got screwy. Two-time defending champion Serena Williams seems well on her way to capturing title #6 in New York, dropping just a handful of games through her first two rounds, while Victoria Azarenka, runner-up in both 2012 and 2013, seems like she's turning around a disappointing season. And Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova, traditionally an early loser at the Open, has won twelve straight sets the last two weeks, reclaiming the title in New Haven in the process. Still, with 2011 titleist Sam Stosur bowing out to tough-as-nails Kaia Kanepi and recently rising Ana Ivanovic getting shocked by former Juniors champion Karolina Pliskova yesterday, there are a couple openings. Both of these victors have winnable third round matches, and could add some new blood to the later rounds. But we can't count out world #48 Zarina Diyas who endured an emotionally trying match late last night -- with the crowd unanimously behind teen sensation Cici Bellis in their second round, the Kazakh stayed tough after losing seven games in a row to hold on for the win. She'll meet Ekaterina Makarova in her first U.S. Open third round, and though the Russian has had some big wins here in the past, Diyas might just be able to keep adrenaline on her side.

The bottom half of the women's draw also has plenty of room for surprises. Second seed Simona Halep, one of the most consistent players at the Slams this year, is still alive, but looks spotty -- she dropped her opening set to collegiate star Danielle Collins and is being challenged now by veteran Mirjana Lucic. Other players, though, are looking more solid. Shuai Peng, who rolled over world #5 Agnieszka Radwanska on Wednesday, pulled off another one-sided victory today against 2012 quarterfinalist Roberta Vinci. She doesn't have a great record against either of her next two possible opponents, but playing some of the best tennis of her career, she could change that now. But watch out also for former world #1 Jelena Jankovic, who reached her only Grand Slam final here a long six years ago. She's faced three tough opponents already and hasn't dropped serve yet, needing less than an hour to dispatch Johanna Larsson earlier today. She's slated to face a resurgent Angelique Kerber next, but the one-time semifinalist has just lost her first set to teenager Belinda Bencic. Either way, though, JJ's playing the kind of ball that could get her noticed again.

We've gotten to that point at the U.S. Open where it's time for the players who've caused upsets to prove they're no fluke, and for those who've delivered wins so far to capitalize on any opportunity they get. Sure, the top seeds are going to do their best to swat away any threats -- but if these guys and gals keep up their games, things could look very different from what we expect as we get into Week Two.

August 26, 2014

Momentum Lost

With a day or so of play in the books at the U.S. Open, we haven't seen a ton of big upsets yet, but that doesn't mean the action in New York has been completely devoid of surprises. Favorites like Simona Halep were pushed to three sets on Day One, upstarts like Nick Kyrgios notched huge wins over long-standing veterans, and former champions like Venus Williams were forced to brave the wilderness, swatting at bees as well as balls. But not everyone made it through early round play -- and a couple who'd been strong all summer suffered a bit of a set back just as they seemed to have been peaking.

Magdalena Rybarikova has had some of her best results on the American hardcourts, trouncing higher-ranked opponents in DC to win the title two years running, and stunning Simona Halep just last week on her way to the New Haven final. But while she was able to push former world #1 Caroline Wozniacki to a third set, she ultimately retired down a break in the decider. The on-paper underdog may not have been projected to go very far, but she certainly had the ability to shake up the draw a bit. Instead it's the 2009 runner-up who'll face qualifier Aliaksandra Sasnovich for a spot in the third round. And while Caro has certainly upped her game after a disappointing spring season, she must be relieved to have survived the challenge. And hopefully she'll be able to absorb the momentum that the Slovakian lost.

Garbiñe Muguruza has been a little more consistent this year -- since picking up her maiden trophy in Hobart, she reached the fourth round of the Australian Open, pulled off the upset of the tournament on her way to the Roland Garros quarters and made the Sweet Sixteen in both Stanford and New Haven. Her five top-twenty wins on the season have helped her rise to a career-high #26 ranking and earned her a second straight seeding at a Major. She opened against thirty-two year old Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, ranked outside the top hundred, a veteran who made the Wimbledon semis way back in 1999 and was able to capitalize on that experience Monday. In about an hour and a half Lucic had recorded the win, setting up a second round with fellow vet Shahar Peer, a woman she beat in their only previous match just last year. Actually the favorite this time, the Croat could parlay her first upset into her deepest run in New York yet.

Unfortunately for 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, hopes of recapturing past glory were stopped short. The two-time Major winner ended a four-year title drought in DC earlier this month, and pulled off wins over higher-ranked Genie Bouchard and Ekaterina Makarova this summer. She was one of my dark horse picks to at least the second week at this event, but she had the bad luck to run into a hungry Marina Erakovic earlier today. Sveta jumped to an early lead, but was pushed quickly to a third set by the world #82 -- the New Zealander climbed back from a break down in the decider too, ultimately forcing and winning a tiebreak. It was Erakovic's first win at the U.S. Open and sets up a meeting with another Russian, Elena Vesnina in the next round. And with a 2-2 record against last year's Eastbourne champion, she's got more than a good shot at scoring a few more.

It wasn't just the ladies who came under pressure in early rounds. I was sure Vasek Pospisil had broken his weak streak when made the finals in DC, winning battles against the likes of Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet. He couldn't defend points he'd earned last year in Montreal, but took Roger Federer to three sets in Cincinnati and seemed ready to make a break back into the top rankings. But Italy's Simone Bolelli had other plans. After a heart-breaking five-set loss in the Wimbledon third round, the world #85 was not about to go down without a fight -- he lost the first set and squandered the lead he built when he won the next two. But ultimately Bolelli finished swinging -- he converted the only break opportunity in the fifth, winning his only match at Flushing Meadows since 2007. He'll now take on sixteenth seed Tommy Robredo, a more difficult test to be sure, but a man he's beaten in their last two meetings. If he's recovered in time, there's no reason he can't keep that run going.

Yen-Hsun "Rendy" Lu, on the other hand, wasn't able to maintain his own momentum. After taking out Tomas Berdych in Cincinnati and making a solid run to the semis in Winston-Salem last week, the man from Taipei climbed to #34 in the world, his highest ranking in almost four years. It wasn't enough for a seed at the U.S. Open, but he nevertheless presented a threat to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, ranked just ahead of him, who'd gone on a five-match losing streak in July and August. But in the pair's first meeting since 2009, the Spaniard had the upper hand from the start -- he broke Lu six times during the match, won more than eighty percent of his first serves, and out-aced his opponent 10-3. In what should have been a much closer battle, GGL secured the win in three easy sets, sending Rendy home in the first round of a Major for the twenty-second time and setting up a second round with another summer stand-out, Sam Querrey. He should be the favorite here, too, but Querrey's won every one of their last three meetings, most recently just last week in North Carolina, and he's not going to let the twenty-eighth seed rest too long on his laurels.

Lukas Rosol was certainly not allowed much of a chance to rest on his. The twenty-nine year old, best known for his then-shocking defeat of Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon in 2012, was having a pretty good season this year too. He notched three top-thirty wins on his way to the Stuttgart final, and beat Tommy Robredo a week later in Hamburg. Last week at the Winston-Salem Open, helped largely by the retirement of Ryan Harrison and a withdrawal by John Isner, he worked his way to the championship match, claiming his second career title with a three-set victory over big-serving Jerzy Janowicz in the final. He lasted three sets today, too, but this time was on the wrong end of them -- against teenage qualifier Borna Coric, last year's Boys' champion in New York, he watched twenty aces sail past him, was broken five times and was sent packing after less than two hours on court. The #204-ranked Coric will now face thirty-four year old Victor Estrella Burgos -- literally twice his age -- who won his first match at a Major earlier today. The Croat will surely be the underdog, but the way the kids are playing these days, I wouldn't put anything past him.

Of course, it wasn't all bad news for the summer's strongest players -- former champion Sam Stosur, fresh off a win over Genie Bouchard on her way to the New Haven semis, easily passed what could have been a difficult test from Lauren Davis, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may have been on the losing end of one of the best shots of the Open so far, but ultimately got the win over Juan Monaco without breaking much of a sweat. Still, early exits for some of the most successful stars of the season might just open the doors for both their vanquishers and those looking for a turn around.

And whoever grabs the opportunity first could ride a new wave of momentum farther than they ever expected.

August 23, 2014

Blogcast: 2014 U.S. Open Preview


Serena Williams wants to end her 2014 Major losing streak while Novak Djokovic looks to reclaim the title he won in 2011. But plenty others could cause a stir as the biggest tennis stars descend on New York for the last Grand Slam of the season.

For more of Tennis Spin's video content, please click the "Blogcasts

August 21, 2014

U.S. Open: 10 Things I Want to See

Well we're finally here, the last Grand Slam of the season, and, boy, have the previous three given us some big expectations. Since the opening shots of the Australian Open, we've been treated to shocking upsets, stunning breakthroughs and huge comebacks. And while I certainly didn't see everything coming, I have to say I'm pretty satisfied with my Major wish lists this year.

Of course, having said that, I've probably doomed myself to a pathetic score this time around, but why not try to go out with a bang. So without further ado, here are the things I most want to see happen at this year's U.S. Open.

10. Genie goes four-for-four

At the start of the year, I never would have thought this was a possibility. Sure other players have made the semifinals of every Slam in one season, but those are so often tried and true champions like Roger Federer, Serena Williams, Novak Djokovic. And sure young stars have had breakouts at single Majors, but either, like Caroline Wozniacki after the 2009 U.S. Open, they struggle to return to form or, like 2005 French Open champion Gaston Gaudio, they fizzle out entirely.

But for Genie Bouchard, barely out of Junior leagues, ranking just #145 at last year's Australian Open, playing her first full season of Majors, to make not one, not two, but three Slam semis and a final -- well that's really something.

She's struggled a bit since Wimbledon, though -- in her homeland of Montreal, she was shocked by then-world #113 Shelby Rogers, a little bad luck pitted her against red-hot Svetlana Kuznetsova in her Cincinnatti opener, and after a nice opening in New Haven, she fell in straight sets to Sam Stosur in her second round. Still, she's been surprisingly consistent after her breakthrough in Melbourne, racking up wins over the likes of Venus Williams, Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep this season, and there's no reason she can't keep going.

9. A summer star steals the spotlight

Speaking of breakouts, there are plenty others who could take up the mantle now that Bouchard has passed squarely into the established elite. And some of the guys who caused a stir over the last few weeks could now get something done on a big stage.

Topping this list of contenders might be the woman who upset Genie on her own homecourt. Shelby Rogers was ranked barely inside the top hundred fifty at the start of the summer, but took out three seeded players -- including clay court specialist Sara Errani -- on her way to the Bad Gastein final. And she made a successful transition to the hardcourts earlier this month, beating Nanchang champ Shaui Peng to qualify for Montreal before ousting Bouchard a few rounds later. She's still ranked a low #86, and has never won a main draw match at the U.S. Open -- her only Major victory came last year in Paris over even lesser known wildcard Irena Pavlovic. But recent successes suggest that's about to change.

Vasek Pospisil has had a few more opportunities at the Slams, but in his nine previous main draws he's still only scored four singles match wins in total -- he is, of course, coming off his first doubles Major, winning Wimbledon with Jack Sock to start the summer. He's got a shot at improving that record in New York though -- he beat both Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet on his way to a runner-up finish in DC, the first Tour-level final of his career, and though he lost a bunch of ranking points after failing to match his 2013 semifinal showing in Montreal, he did manage to take a set off Roger Federer last week in Cincinnati. He's still outside seeding territory for this fortnight, but he could turn out to be a spoiler to one of the favorites if he gets his game together.

So could veteran Julien Benneteau, making his eleventh trip to the U.S. Open. The thirty-two year old Frenchman has only won one match at a Major so far this year, but he upped his game big time during the summer -- after taking out Lleyton Hewitt and Ernests Gulbis in Toronto, he stunned Stan Wawrinka to make the semifinals in Cincinnati. He's now back in the top thirty, seeded twenty-fourth in New York, and while he's barely won as many matches as he's lost this year, he looks to have more momentum than he's had in a long time. The long-time journeyman is still looking for his first title -- he's lost every one of the nine ATP finals he's played during his career -- so I can't realistically expect him to walk away with the trophy, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him hanging around in Week Two, maybe adding a few more big scalps to his take.

8. A low seed rises high

Sure, Benneteau could certainly fall into this category as well, but isn't always more fun when the Cinderella's seem to come out of nowhere? To be fair, both of these players have had some nice results this year, so we shouldn't be too surprised to see them doing well. Still, considering how far off the radar they were at the start of the year, it really would be great to see them finish it off with a bang.

Ivo Karlovic was ranked in the low double-digits when the season began, but the Croat is now in the top thirty, thanks in part to four final appearances, two on hardcourts. Not surprisingly, the thirty-five year old leads the ATP in almost every serving statistic category -- he's fired off almost nine hundred aces this year, averaging about eighteen a match, won eighty-four percent of his first serves and ninety-three percent of his service games. He's never really done well in New York, reaching just the third round a few times, and has slowed down a bit since playing for the title in Bogota -- he lost to Steve Johnson in Washington and Benjamin Becker in Cincinnati -- but wouldn't that make a deep run this year that much more impressive?

Barbora Zahlavova Strycova has already shown how impressive she can be -- barely ranked inside the top hundred when the season began, she beat three seeded players on the way to the final in Birmingham and then knocked out Na Li and Caroline Wozniacki on her way to the Wimbledon quarters. She's been a little less splashy since then but still managed wins over Mona Barthel and Roberta Vinci at a couple Premier-level events and this week in New Haven has so far scored wins over rising stars Belinda Bencic and Caroline Garcia. Her performance has been enough to earn her a seed in New York -- the first time that's happened at a Major in her decade-plus long career -- and something tells me she might just be able to rise even higher.

7. An American wildcard steps up

I realize this is a little derivative of previous wishes, but I'm going to be a little more particular here. We've been talking a long time about the next generation of American stars, and after the results some players put up over the summer, there's no reason to believe this won't be their chance to really shine.

Former Junior #1 Taylor Townsend, who added two ITF titles to her kitty this year, is entered in her first U.S. Open main draw, having fallen in qualifying rounds two times before. Still the eighteen year old is at her highest career ranking, #103 in the world, and has managed wins over Klara Koukalova and Julia Goerges during the summer hardcourt season. She was also, against all odds, the last American woman standing at the French Open, reaching the third round with wins over Vania King and Alize Cornet. And if the draw works in her favor she might be able to surpass even that this coming fortnight.

Also on the wildcard list is twenty-six year old Tim Smyczek, ranked just inside the top hundred. He's had a little more experience at Flushing Meadows and has steadily improved his performance here, barely losing in the third round in 2013 to Marcel Granollers. He's been busy the last couple months, too, reaching the third round in DC and hanging tough with Feliciano Lopez after qualifying for the Toronto Masters. He hasn't quite matched the results of contemporaries like Jack Sock or Steve Johnson this season, but he could be ready to turn that around now.

6. Young guns hit their stride

Of course even with homecourt advantage, the Americans will face a tough challenge in New York. And a couple players still on the verge of making the big time could prove to be their undoing.

One-time French Open Cinderella David Goffin is running on a most-unlikely twenty-five match win streak this summer. The twenty-three year old Belgian had fallen well off the radar over the past eighteen months and dropped as low as #113 in the world at the start of the season. But after losing his first round at Wimbledon -- his seventh straight opening round loss at a Major -- he picked up three consecutive Challengers' titles and his first big boy's crown in Kitzbühel last month. This week in Winston-Salem he defeated defending champion Jurgen Melzer and and will play his quarterfinal match later today. He's still off his career high ranking, but he seems to have more confidence and is playing better ball than we've seen from him in a long time. And that could bode well for him when he hits the courts of New York.

Perhaps former Junior Roland Garros champion Elina Svitolina has an even better shot at making a splash. The world #34 just successfully defended her title in Baku and is fresh off her first top-ten win, beating Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova on her way to the quarters in Cincinnati. She doesn't have a lot of success in the Majors' main draws -- her best result was the third round of this year's Australian Open -- but she's only been playing with the big girls a few years. And she's scored wins over multiple Grand Slam champions -- Kvitova, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Francesca Schiavone -- as well as over the likes of Carla Suarez Navarro, Sloane Stephens and Genie Bouchard. She might not be a favorite yet, but she has the talent to spoil the hopes of a couple who are.

5. A weak streak is ended

For every player who's put together a great run this season, there is one who has let his or her game slip a bit. For some it's been months since we saw their best stuff, for others much longer than that. But what better place to turn around their luck than at the last Major of the year?

Mikhail Youzhny certainly has had some of his best results in New York -- twice a semifinalist, he even made the quarters here last year. But he's had three straight second-round exits at the Majors this season, and hasn't won more than two matches at any event in 2014. But there is reason to believe he can rebound -- last week in Cincinnati, he summarily ended the momentum of Toronto champ Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and followed up the win with a straight set victory over Andreas Seppi. He'll have a lot on the line over the next few weeks, but with his history and hopefully rebuilt confidence, he has a real shot at going far.

Alize Cornet actually had been having one of the best years of her career, reaching the final in Dubai and winning the title in Katowice. At #23 in the world, she's at her highest ranking since 2009, and earlier this summer she notched her first ever top-ten win at a Slam, stunning Serena Williams for the second time in a row in the Wimbledon third round. Since then, however, she's only won one match, losing twice to players ranked outside the top hundred. On the plus side, though, she should be well rested when she heads out to defend those third round points from last year -- and if she can harness the talent we know she has somewhere in there, she should be able to do it.

Flavia Pennetta has a little more on the line at the U.S. Open -- last year's surprise semifinalist beat Svetlana Kuznetsova, Sara Errani and Simona Halep during her 2013 campaign. She carried that momentum with her early into this season, too, reaching the quarters in Melbourne and then winning her biggest title to date in Indian Wells. But then she really slowed down -- she lost in the second rounds of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon and couldn't put up much of a fight in the summer Premier events. Her latest effort resulted in an early upset this week by world #44 Alison Riske in New Haven. Still, despite her recent weakness, she's risen to her highest ranking in over four years -- if she wants to stay there, she's going to have to deliver big this fortnight.

4. A former champ makes a stand

For the last several years this tournament has really been dominated by just a few players -- Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have won all but two of the last ten U.S. Open men's crowns and Serena Williams is going for the three-peat in New York, looking for her sixth career trophy here. But a couple players who actually broke their Grand Slam seal in Flushing Meadows have fallen a little out of the spotlight, and this could be their chance to jump back in.

We're not that far removed from Andy Murray's heyday -- it was only last year that he was making history as Wimbledon champion. But back issues plagued him late last season, and though he was able to reach the semis at Roland Garros, he hasn't put up much of a fight even outside the Majors. Now #9 in the world, he's in danger of going title-less for the first time since 2005, surprising for a man who seemed so unstoppable just a few months ago. He's shown some signs of strength on the summer hardcourts -- he dismantled Rafa-killer Nick Kyrgios in his Toronto opener and sneaked out a close win over John Isner last week in Cincinnati. The pressure will be turned higher at the Open, though, the first Slam he won, but it seems that's when he does best, so watch for him to make a statement on his return.

Svetlana Kuznetsova's reign in the Big Apple was a little longer ago -- it's been a full decade since she beat Elena Dementieva for the U.S. Open title. Her career's gone up and down since then -- she peaked at #2 in the world way back in 2007, battled various injuries and struggled with her form, shocked the world with a crown at Roland Garros in 2009 and picked up a couple doubles titles at the Majors too, fell out of the top fifty and went a full four years without a trophy. Still, the veteran Russian has been a fixture on Tour, playing singles in all but two of the last forty-eight Slams, and at #21 in the world now, she's at her best ranking in over two years. She kicked off the summer with her first title since 2010 and beat Genie Bouchard in the second round of Cincinnati. It's probably a long shot to call for Sveta to make the second week, but the long-trudging workhorse is one of those players no one wants to see in her section of the draw, and she certainly could surprise us all.

So could, it seems, two-time champion Venus Williams, who played her last final here in 2002. The thirty-four year old has lost in the second round here the last three years, but despite illness and injury refuses to go away. To start the year, she pushed Ana Ivanovic to a third set in the Auckland final and exacted revenge in Dubai, where she ultimately claimed the title, her first since 2012. Earlier this month she pulled off her first win over sister Serena in five years, coming back after losing the first set to the world #1 in the Montreal semis. Whether she can last a full fortnight remains to be seen -- she's fallen before the fourth round at eleven of the last twelve Majors she's played -- but perhaps this time the extra day of rest between matches will help. She's certainly got the drive and talent to make a run, so why not do it at her homeland Slam?

3. A winner trades up

While these guys are looking for a return to glory of sorts, a couple of recent champions are still hoping for that big break. They've all been talked about as contenders in the past -- some long ago, some very recently -- but maybe their recent performances on the North American hardcourts suggest they're ready for some even glossier hardware.

Milos Raonic has long been discussed as a potential multi-Slam winner, but it wasn't until this year that he finally hit his stride. The big-serving Canadian reached the quarterfinals in Paris and broke through to the semis at Wimbledon, climbing to a career-high #6 in the world. To start the summer, he added the biggest trophy yet to his coffers, claiming his first 500-level event in DC. To go from that straight to a Major is probably a big ask, but he has the ability to give the top stars a run for the money, and on this surface, by far his best despite stalling in the fourth round here two years straight, he's probably got the best chance to do it.

Agnieszka Radwanska has been playing in the big leagues for years, but seemed to fall by the wayside after her runner's-up finish at the All England Club two years back. Sure, she's picked up a few titles here and there, but none nearly as big as the one that slipped through her fingers in 2012. Losses in some big matches she should have won also seemed to suggest her best days were behind her. But earlier this month in Montreal, the former world #2 took out some huge opponents -- Sabine Lisicki, Victoria Azarenka, Venus Williams, to name a few -- on the way to her biggest crown in quite a while. She has yet to make the quarterfinals in New York, but that could be about to change.

Like Aga, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga hadn't played his best tennis in years. Though the 2008 runner-up at the Australian Open had scored wins over the likes of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer at the Slams, this year he'd been struggling, needing five sets to get past both Sam Querrey and Jurgen Melzer at Wimbledon. But he got his game together in a big way this month -- seeded a mediocre thirteenth in Toronto, he took out four top-ten players in a row, the first player to do that at a Masters event since Guillermo Canas in 2002, ironically, also at the Rogers Cup. He was understandably exhausted and lost his next match to Mikhail Youzhny, but with a few weeks off between that and his opener in New York, he should have built up the strength for another deep run here.

2. The curse is broken

The tricky thing about Grand Slams is that it's so often difficult to follow up one win with another -- in fact, so many players have trouble even lasting a few rounds into the next event they play. And some of this year's champions are going to want to change that trend.

Stanislas Wawrinka shocked the tennis world with his maiden Major in Melbourne, where he turned the tables on Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal -- both of whom he'd held losing records to before. He climbed to #3 in the world after that and even picked up his first Masters title a few months later. But he's also disappointed when the pressure was on -- he lost his opener in Paris, was bested by sub-fifty player Andrey Golubev in Davis Cup and notched two losses to Kevin Anderson on the U.S. hardcourts. Last week in Cincinnati, he squandered a 6-1 lead over Julien Benneteau and crumbled quickly in the eighty minute match. He did reach the semifinals in New York last year, then his best Slam showing, but if he wants to prove he's no one-hit wonder, he might need to do more than just defend those points.

Petra Kvitova had also struggled immediately after she was first crowned a Grand Slam champion -- the 2011 Wimbledon winner only won two matches during that summer and lost in her New York first round to world #48 Alexandra Dulgheru just a few weeks after her surprise run at the All England Club. She'll want to make sure that doesn't happen again -- in her first tournament since Trophy #2, she fell in three sets to Ekaterina Makarova in Montreal and lost last week to Elina Svitolina in her Cincy opener. She's been strong so far in New Haven, dropping just three games in a grudge match versus Makarova, and will next take on compatriot Barbora Zahlahvova Strycova for a spot in the semis. Hopefully, if she doesn't tire herself out, she'll be able to ride that momentum into a truly successful run in Flushing Meadows.

1. #2 upends #1

As much as each individual match win at a Major matters, ultimately the goal for every player is to win the trophy at the end of the fortnight. And, upsets, breakdowns and Cinderellas aside, you have to assume the favorites have earned that status for a reason. But there's no reason that, even if the top two seeds smash their way into the finals, we can't see a couple fireworks when the titles are on the line. And why not have the biggest surprises come when the stakes are highest?

With Rafael Nadal's injury-induced absence, fellow former champions Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer claim the high spots in the men's draw at the U.S. Open, and if the seedings play out as planned, they'd set up their fifth meeting of the year and their third battle when a Major trophy's on the line. Not surprisingly, the pair's head-to-head record is spitting-distance close -- Nole's five-set victory at the All England Club brought him a match away from drawing even against the All Time Great. And as the top-ranked player in the world, he'd be the favorite to close the gap in this potential match up -- but I'm hoping Roger pulls back ahead. The Swiss is fresh off back-to-back Masters finals, claiming his sixth trophy in Cincinnati. Far from done with his record breaking career, he might just be primed to add Slam #18 to his mantel during his campaign here.

It's a bit of a tougher sell to call for the same to happen on the ladies' side. Five-time champion Serena Williams is the favorite again, followed somewhat distantly by relative newbie Simona Halep, who's reached just one Major final in her much-shorter career. Serena is coming off wins in both Stanford and Cincinnati, clinching the top spot in the U.S. Open Series, Halep dropped her opener in New Haven to world #68 Magadalena Rybarikova. But the young Romanian is an impressive 15-3 in Grand Slams this year compared to an uncharacteristic 6-3 for the world #1. Halep has rocketed up the rankings, from #21 heading to Flushing Meadows last year to #2 now. She's also won an astonishing eight titles since the start of 2013, defeating the likes of Sam Stosur, Angelique Kerber and Petra Kvitova in the finals. She's got five top-ten wins this year, and though she's lost six straight sets to Williams over the last three years, she's not the kind of player that will let that bother her. If she can make it back to a championship match, I won't put winning it past her.



There you have it -- my final Major wish list for the year. Lists are tough -- props to you, BuzzFeed -- I most likely will be changing my strategy next year, but until then, here's hoping I don't spoil my track record too much with this one.

Of course, I know I haven't covered all the bases yet -- don't worry that's still to come. Check back this weekend for my Blogcast preview of what to expect in the Big Apple. And in the meantime, let me know what you're hoping to see at this year's U.S. Open.

August 18, 2014

The Throwback Tourney

Okay, sure -- the last time Roger Federer and Serena Williams hoisted the same trophy didn't come that long ago. But while both have remained not just relevant, but truly dominant in the years since, they'd also proved their fallibility against even the most unlikely opponents. This week, though, they seemed to turn back the clocks, and while both were certainly challenged in Cincinnati, ultimately they each recaptured the strength they'll be sure to bring with them in the weeks that come.

Serena, somewhat surprisingly, had long seemed to be cursed at the Western & Southern Open -- in her five previous appearances she'd only made the final one time and lost last year to Victoria Azarenka in a three-set nail-biter of a championship. And after a health scare at Wimbledon and a semifinal loss to her sister in Montreal, she didn't seem like she was playing at her best this past week either. In her opener against Sam Stosur, her vanquisher, yes, at the U.S. Open several years back, but a woman, nonetheless, she'd dismantled just days earlier, she went two hours and two long tiebreaks before eking out the win, getting barely half of her first serves in and squandering her only break opportunity. Then she dropped the first set to an in-form Caroline Wozniacki in the semis before sneaking into the final against Ana Ivanovic, the woman who'd stunned her in Australia just months ago. The Serb had survived her own squeaker on Saturday, defeating Maria Sharapova for the second straight time in a nearly three-hour battle, and seemed to lose some steam in the title match -- after building a 3-1 lead and holding points for two breaks, Serena upped her game dramatically. She rattled off ten straight points and won eleven of the next thirteen games and after an hour of play had claimed her fifth title of the year, ending a long drought in Cincinnati and setting her up for what could be a successful run in New York.

Federer's had a little more success in Cincy, racking up five trophies in Ohio over the years. But while he's clawed himself back up the rankings this season, reaching at least the final in eight events he's played, he's also fallen just short when it counts most. He'd won neither a Masters title nor a Grand Slam in two years and had been overshadowed by the current generation's stars at most of the big events. Still, Roger kept on kicking -- this week at the Western & Southern, he nudged past back-on-the-upswing Vasek Pospisil in his opening match and needed another decider to get past Gael Monfils. Against tougher opponents in the later rounds he actually had an easier time, dismissing both Andy Murray and summer standout Milos Raonic in straight sets. David Ferrer, who'd just pressed him to three sets the prior week in Toronto, presented a tougher challenge again in Sunday's final -- the veteran Spaniard fired back after losing the first set to build a 5-0 lead in the second -- but Federer rebounded again, breaking early and closing out the match in just over an hour and a half. It was Roger's first Masters title in three ties this year, and his twenty-second overall, and while it wasn't enough to put him atop the U.S. Open Series standings, it certainly shows he's not ready to slink off into the shadows after his disappointing Wimbledon final loss. And that could serve him well as we head to the final Major of the year.

We shouldn't be too surprised that this weekend's champions did what they do best in Cincinnati -- but there's something refreshing in seeing them reclaim the spotlight that had started to drift away. While plenty of players have shown they're contenders for the title in New York, you certainly can't put a title run past these two guys. And with just a week to go before the first balls are hit at Flushing Meadows, everyone out there better be ready for what they're going to bring.

August 14, 2014

A Few Familiar Faces

This year, really, has been about the next generation of tennis greats. With players like Genie Bouchard, Simona Halep and Nick Kyrgios making such big strides, it's been easy to lose track of some long trudging champions.

But this week in Cincinnati, we've seen the vets come back into the spotlight after some seemingly long absences. And they might just have what it takes to keep on going.

Sloane Stephens was long heralded as the Next Big Thing in American women's tennis, and she seemed destined to live up to that reputation when she stunned Serena Williams at the Australian Open last year. But she fell a few rounds short of the semis this time around and had only managed one top-twenty win all season, beating Ana Ivanovic in Indian Wells, while she lost to a handful of players ranked outside the top hundred. This week at the Western & Southern Open, though, she seems to have gotten her stride back -- she kicked off her campaign with a straight-set win over French Cinderella Andrea Petkovic and then took out Wimbledon standout Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. She next faces a rematch with Jelena Jankovic, the woman who beat her in Montreal just days ago, but she went three long sets in that battle and could turn the tables in her favor now that she's playing on her own homecourt.

Sabine Lisicki has also struggled since her career high last July. Consistently a threat at Wimbledon, she final reached the championship match in 2013, but didn't win more than one match at an event until Madrid this season. Even when she was breaking service records in Stanford, she was still losing matches she should have won. She also may be back on track in Cincinnati, though, taking out both Roberta Vinci and her co-#1 doubles partner Sara Errani to start the week. And like Sloane again, she'll meet her Rogers Cup vanquisher in tonight's late match -- she was the only player to take a set off Aga Radwanska last week in Montreal, and might now have the fire to go one better this time.

While these unseeded ladies have outlasted expectations already in Cincinnati, David Ferrer is looking to give himself a bit of a boost. Last year's runner-up in Paris has remained consistent this year, reaching the quarters in Australia and at Roland Garros and remaining squarely in the top ten of the ATP. But he's also suffered some surprising losses -- to Teymuraz Gabashvili in his Barcelona opener and to Andrey Kuznetsov in the second round at Wimbledon. And even when he's won, he's had a tough time doing it -- yesterday against Phillipp Kohlschreiber in Cincy, he needed three tiebreaks and nearly three hours to advance. Up next for the sixth seed is Mikhail Youzhny -- a man who's been struggling himself this year, but encouragingly followed up a win over Toronto champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga by beating Andreas Seppi on Wednesday. Ferrer has a less-than-spectacular 3-5 record against the Russian, but if he can rally for the win there's no telling what it would do for his morale.

Gael Monfils can't really ever be accused of having too little confidence, but he's struggled to come back from injury over the last several months, and success has come in fits and starts. He did claim a title early in the year and took Andy Murray to five sets in the Roland Garros quarters, but he also was dealt a early exit at the hands of Jiri Vesely at Wimbledon. Last week in Toronto he pushed Novak Djokovic to the limit, ultimately losing in the almost-three hour match, but it might have lit a fire under him for the Western & Southern -- he went three sets in his opener, but rebounded quickly to upset 2014 breakout Roberto Bautista-Agut. It's only going to get tougher from here, of course -- he'll take on Roger Federer this evening -- but Monfils actually won the pair's last meeting at the Shanghai Masters and might have the momentum to pull off another big upset.

Of course it's great when new talent crops up in the tennis world, but there's something reassuring about seeing these guys and gals hitting back so strong against the tide. They might not be the favorites in the field, but they've all scored some huge wins in the past and could certainly find the strength to do it again. And if they keep it up, things could get really interesting in the weeks to come.

August 10, 2014

Feels Like Forever

In truth, it hasn't been that long since this weekend's champions last hoisted a trophy, but it sure feels like it's been a while. Whether dealing with injury, being overshadowed by rising stars, or falling in early rounds to players ranked far below them, both Aga Radwanska and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had been pushed from the headlines the last few months. But their performances this week in Canada might have turned the tide back in their favor, and it couldn't have come at a better time.

Agnieszka Radwanska had put up a couple solid performances this season, reaching the semis in Melbourne and the final in Indian Wells, but she hadn't won a title since Seoul last fall and was upset in the first week at both the French Open and Wimbledon. She still held onto the third seed in Montreal this past week, but she faced a tough draw from the start -- she opened against All England Club Cinderella Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, followed up with a win over record-breaking server Sabine Lisicki and then scored her second straight win over long-time rival Victoria Azarenka. In her semifinal against Ekaterina Makarova she avenged her loss in the Wimbledon fourth round and set up a clash with veteran champion Venus Williams for the title. Sure, Aga was the on-paper favorite against the unseeded Williams, but Venus had already notched wins over Stanford runner-up Angelique Kerber and recent foil Carla Suarez Navarro before stunning younger sister Serena in a three-set semi, her first win over the world #1 since 2009 -- she certainly was more than capable of getting another win on Sunday. But Radwanska got the upper hand this time, pouncing on Venus's second serve and breaking her opponent five times. In under an hour and a half, the Pole had picked up trophy number fourteen, her biggest since 2012, and put herself squarely back in the conversation as the summer hardcourt season really heats up.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga seemed to have fallen even further out of that conversation -- the one-time world #5 failed to defend his Marseille title in February and hadn't made it to the second week of a Major since Roland Garros last year. He'd posted losses this season to players like #46 Santiago Giraldo in Madrid, #60 Marinko Matosevic at Queen's Club, and #119 Peter Gojowczyk at Davis Cup and went 0-7 against opponents ranked in the top ten. That was, of course, before he got to Toronto. A low thirteenth seed at the Rogers Cup, he stunned two-time champion Novak Djokovic in the third round and followed up with wins over Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov to make his first Masters final since 2011. There he faced off against legend Roger Federer, who'd reached his fifth final at this event, albeit by facing a couple challenges on the way -- he'd played late into the night in two-and-a-half hour-plus third round battle against Marin Cilic and needed another three sets to get past David Ferrer in the quarters. Tsonga, though, who'd notched a couple big wins over Federer in the past, proved the cooler of the two in the final -- on serve through the first eleven games of the match, he converted the only break opportunity of the opening set and created six more chances in the second while winning more than ninety percent of his first serves. Though he squandered one match point on Roger's serve, he ultimately took the championship in a tiebreak, capping off what might have been the most successful week of his career.

With their wins this week, both Radwanska and Tsonga have not only ended a long dry spell, but put themselves back in the mix as we head to the final Grand Slam of the year. While the stakes are only getting higher in the weeks to come, their performances in Canada show they know how to perform under pressure. And if they can keep it up, there's no telling how much more they can do.