Trouble With the Serve

Over the weekend, Reilly Opelka won the first pro tennis event since lockdown began over two months ago, defeating Russia's Miomir Kecmanovic in three sets to claim the UTR Pro Match Series championship.

The victory didn't earn him any ranking points, but he did score some hard-to-come-by-these-days prize money -- he was quick to point out that ATP Officials have been paid their full salary since March, even as tour play has been suspended, while players themselves have had no means of truly earning their keep -- and that all-important match play during this unprecedented time.

And in watching Opelka on court, you can't help but be reminded of another American player with very similar attributes. 

At 6'11" (!!!) the 22-year-old is actually an inch taller than John Isner, and he understandably shares his compatriot's big weapon -- down 15-30 to Kecmanovic in the third set Saturday, he fired off three aces to win the game. In his two months of regular play this year, he's already hit 214 service winners, and over the past 52 weeks he trails only Isner in average aces per match.

But as we've also come to know, a serve in this sport is not everything. I've long lamented how many times Isner is forced into a tiebreak -- nearly half his sets this year have been decided in, well, deciders -- and if you can't break your opponent's serve then what good, really, is dominating yours?

Opelka is not entirely innocent of posting similar stats. He's only won 12% of his return games this year; Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, wins more than one of every three. And he's racking up as much time in tiebreak land as Isner -- every one of their ten sets against each other last year went 7-6 or 6-7.

But he is working to improve. That 12% record compares to the 10% he won on the receiving end last year, and is several times better than the 7% he notched in 2016. And he's consciously focused on fixing his weakness.

“I've spent a lot of time on my return,” he told the Tennis Channel after his win this weekend. “I returned well in Delray, and I returned well in Davis Cup. I’m much more confident in my return game. It’s so much more fun for me as a player to believe I can break serve. I’m not just focused on holding serve. It adds a whole other element to my game.”

Will that translate into more success when regular play resumes? Hopefully -- the world #39 has already had some decent results this season, taking Fabio Fognini to five sets in his Australian opener and winning that title in Delray, the second of his career, beating Milos Raonic along the way. Last year he beat Stan Wawrinka at Wimbledon. 

And, since the comparison with Isner is inevitable, Opelka won all three of their matches in 2019, so at the very least he seems to be winning the battle of the big servers for now. 

Of course, I don't mean to say that Isner's career isn't something to aspire to -- we could all do a lot worse than being ranked in the top twenty for the balance of a decade -- but I would like to see Reilly do even better. We could talk for hours about how long it's been since an American played a Grand Slam final, never mind won one. Opelka may or may not be our best chance at that, but he's certainly an option.

But even beyond the hardware he could earn, for him to really thrive on tour, we need to see a more well-rounded game. I have confidence he's getting there, and can't wait to see what he does when he's truly at the top of his game.

Playing Catch-Up

It was a busy Friday in Doha, where rain cancelled most of yesterday's play and caused a bit of a scramble to get the quarter- and semifinal matches wrapped up in time for the weekend. And those double headers made for some surprising results in what had already been an unexpected week.

I mean, only two seeds were still standing by the elite eight -- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic both lost their opening matches to players I'd never heard of before this week, and Frances Tiafoe, my dark horse pick to win a Major in 2020, didn't make it out of the first round.

And with more than a few double-headers scheduled for Friday, things got even more interesting. Top seeded Stan Wawrinka, who appeared well on his way back to the top ranks at the end of last season, and world #23 Andrey Rublev, a titleist in Moscow late last year, both got their first matches of the day wrapped up without drama, while France's Corentin Moutet won his fifth match of the event against one-time Australian Open semifinalist Fernando Verdasco.

But when the second matches of the day rolled around, Rublev dismissed Tsonga-vanquisher, Serbian Miomir Kecmanovic -- the only player who'd gotten his match in on Thursday. But while it at first seemed likely he'd battle Wawrinka for the crown, the Swiss #2 couldn't capitalize on winning his first set versus Moutet, and after more than two hours, it was the qualifier who'd earned his spot in the final -- the first of his career and quite a way to start the decade.

It seems obvious that Rublev will be the favorite to score the trophy tomorrow, but the action all week certainly sets an interesting tone for the men's game this year, well beyond the final. After all there were a lot of unknown players getting into the later rounds of the draw (and even a couple unknowns making it into the seeds -- who on Earth is fifth-seeded Laslo Djere?! I am again reminded that I need to study up on everything I've missed over the last couple years).

But perhaps we're getting a nice taste of who could fill out the ranks when the current top players ultimately, inevitably step to the side. And who knows, maybe Moutet will walk away with the trophy tomorrow and make his mark on the road to that new world early.