Half Way Through -- Where We Stand

So it appears I really suck at predicting semifinalsts at Grand Slams.

Three rounds in to this year's very strange U.S. Open, and only three of my eight selections are still alive. And while those standing are still looking strong and could very well fulfill my expectations, so many others have really asserted themselves in a way I could never have predicted.

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The Women



Let's start with the first quarter of the ladies' draw where top seed Karolina Pliskova was upset by Caroline Garcia in the second round. It was the first "huge" shock in the women's draw -- which somewhat shockingly had more seeds emerge out of the first round than the mens -- but something I frankly saw coming. I also expected Jennifer Brady, a winner over Ashleigh Barty, Elina Svitolina, and Garbiñe Muguruza this year and a champion in Lexington, to do well, but that's where my foresight ends.

Yulia Putintseva, who's made a couple of Roland Garros quarters, has only won two matches here once, and Petra Martic, who'd I'd written off as a vulnerable eighth seed, both have been on point in their first few matches, and the fact that one of them will play for a spot in the final four is pretty surprising. But it appears we cannot count out 2016 champion Angelique Kerber who, at #23 in the world, is well off her best tennis, but seems to like winning that way. She's currently down a set to Brady in the fourth round, but she's certainly pulled off bigger comebacks in the past and might just be ready to do it again.

On the end of the draw, my complete Hail Mary pick of Johanna Konta was shocked by a resurgent Sorana Cirstea, but I take some comfort in the fact that my other one to watch, Elise Mertens, has been looking strong this first week. One of the players forced to suspend her second round match and pick it up again the next day, she's technically played three days in a row but kept her level high. And Aussie champ Sofia Kenin is comfortingly playing well again, after losing her first rounds in Dubai, Doha, and Cincinnati. She was pushed by Ons Jabeur last night, but clinched the win in reassuring form.

But you might have to keep an eye out now for two-time finalist Victoria Azarenka who, after a title run in "Cincy" is now riding an eight-match win streak, absolutely crushing Aryna Sabalenka, her vanquisher here last year, in the second round. Next up is a talented Karolina Muchova, one of my Cinderella picks in Melbourne. The 24-year-old Czech scored a huge win over Venus Williams in her opener and survived a big test from Cirstea yesterday. Unseeded Azarenka is actually one ranking spot below her seeded next opponent, but something tells me her experience could help her pull off the win -- and maybe help another one of my predictions come true.

The third quarter of the women's draw is where the most disruption has happened. Yes, Serena Williams making the fourth round shouldn't be a surprise -- though that outcome looked to be in question after she dropped her first set to Sloane Stephens yesterday -- but given her losses so far this summer, it certainly wasn't a given. For a spot in the quarters, she set up a rematch with Maria Sakkari, the woman who came back from a set down in "Cincy" to pull off the upset. Serena's not usually the type to let you get away with two wins in a row, but she has dropped straight matches to Naomi Osaka and Bianca Andreescu in recent years, so the Greek is certainly hoping she can capitalize.

But the real surprise has been Tsvetana Pironkova, a semifinalist at Wimbledon a decade ago. Since then she's retire, had a baby, and in the most unfortunately timed of announcements, decided to come back to tennis in March. But you can certainly see why -- she simply stunned my pick for this quarter, Garbiñe Muguruza, in the second round and went on to take out 18^th seed Donna Vekic yesterday. With a fourth round against fellow veteran Alizé Cornet, who beat Sofia Kenin last week in Cincy and benefitted from the retirement of Madison Keys last night, she could very well make another break for the later rounds.

In the last quarter of the draw, the only one on the ladies' side where I picked the favorite to advance, Naomi Osaka has so far lived up to my expectations. But that's not to say there were no surprises here. Osaka, the oddsmakers' favorite to win the title, has dropped sets to Misaki Doi and Marta Kostyuk, so could be challenged by Anett Kontaveit in the next round. The 21^st ranked Estonian put up a fight against the 2018 champion last week and has been on point this week. I wouldn't be surprised if she put up a big fight against the heavy favorite again.

I am frankly a little disappointed by the showing from Jessica Pegula, who has far outplayed her #63 ranking this year with wins over Caroline Wozniacki and Aryna Sabalenka. I thought she had the potential to be a spoiler in this section, and while she looked strong early, she fell in the third round to a strong Petra Kvitova. Instead it appears the Cinderella for the tournament will again be Shelby Rogers, a one-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros who stunned Serena this summer in Lexington. Still ranked #93 in the world, she picked off one of my favorites, Elena Rybakina, in the second round and followed up by beating compatriot Madison Brengle a round later. Repeating her success against Kvitova will be a harder task, but if she can do it, this would certainly push her to new heights.

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The Men

The men's draw has seen plenty of drama of its own, but top seeded and top ranked Novak Djokovic continues to dominate, dropping only one set to Kyle Edmund and inching closer and closer to an undefeated 2020 season. With a fourth round match against Pablo Carreno Busta it appears he's soon to take one step closer.

I am pleasantly surprised, though, by the showing from David Goffin, the other favorite in this quarter, who hasn't done too much this year since beating Rafael Nadal at the ATP Cup. I thought he might get tested and possibly upset in the first round by big-serving Reilly Opelka, but he seemed to handle the challenge well, going on to also easily defeat a strong Filip Krajinovic, who took out Dominic Thiem last week in "Cincy". Then there's young Denis Shapovalov, who started this year with so much hype, but came to the Open with a 5-8 record on the season and a handful of opening round matches. This week he's lived up to his seeding, but after a five-setter against Taylor Fritz -- where he had to come back from 1-2 sets down -- he might be spent in his next round.

I tried to hedge my pick for the second quarter of the draw by choosing two potential semifinalists, but that didn't work out too well for me. Roberto Bautista Agut had the upper hand, ousting Tennys Sandgren in the first round, but yesterday squandered a 2-1 set lead over surprising standout, and PTPA founding member, Vasek Pospisil, who'd already beating countryman Milos Raonic in the second round. It's by far the best showing from the Canadian on these courts -- he made the quarters at Wimbledon back in 2015 -- and against Alex de Minaur, who had his own 1-2 set comeback against Karen Khachanov yesterday, he might just be able to keep it going.

And while the advantage still lies with second seeded Dominic Thiem in this section, I've been impressed by young Felix Auger-Aliassime too. He's another one of those players who came into 2020 red hot and, unlike Shapovalov, seemed to make good on it. He reached the finals of two straight events in the late winter, Rotterdam and Marseille, and while he lost to Sandgren early last week in Cincy, his shot-making was clean and precise. After a tight opener in New York against Thiago Monteiro, he's looked unstoppable and against Thiem, a man he's never met before, could pull off a big upset.

For some strange reason I picked John Millman to surprise us in the third set, even though I knew how dominant last year's finalist Daniil Medvedev can be. And the Russian, happy to play the part of villain at the 2019 event, has been exactly that in his first week back, not dropping a set in his first three matches. Next up he faces Frances Tiafoe, who took out Millman in the second round and is finally living up to the expectations I've had for him. I'm not saying he will beat the world #5, but it sure will be fun to watch him try.

But maybe more impressive this week has been Matteo Berrettini, who I, maybe unjustly, thought would be a flash-in-the-pan. Last year's surprise semifinalist only played two events this year, racking up an unimpressive 2-2 record, but he's found his game at the Open again -- perhaps thanks to one ardent follower who's found a way to get around the no-fan policy this year. The Italian hasn't dropped a set yet, and though he faces a very talented Andrey Rublev in the next round, he might just be ready to keep going.

And finally the last quarter of the men's draw was stacked with young talent ready to make a name for themselves on the Slam courts. Stefanos Tsitsipas certainly put up a fight to make my prediction come true, but ultimately fell in a five-set, four-plus hour match that ended at one a.m. to Borna Coric, a man who we've been waiting for years to live up to his potential. He's never made the quarters of a Major, but with a fourth round agaist world #63 Jordan Thompson, he might be able to do it -- if he recovers in time.

But, of course, you have to assume the favorite for this section is now squarely Alexander Zverev, who made the semis in Melbourne this year too. He's dropped a set in each of his matches so far this first week, but next faces who has to be the biggest surprsie on the men's side, 99^th-ranked Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, a 21-year-old from Spain playing in his first U.S. Open and only his third Slam ever. He's been tested, of course, needing five sets to get past Dennis Novak in his opener, and dropping a set in each of his next two matches too. He's clearly the underdog in his next match, but stranger things have certainly happened before.

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Of course, with a week left to go at the U.S. Open, there's still a lot of game left to play, and any of the players still in the running could conceivably pull off some big wins. Will experience win out in the end, or will that new blood finally start asserting itself in both draws? Only time will tell.

And maybe, just maybe, one of these days I'll get the draws right.

The Emerging Opportunities

Things sure got interesting on the men's tour last week -- we may have been down Nole, Rafa, and an in-recovery Roger, but there was plenty of top talent on the courts with a chance to show us what they've got. But for some reason, many of these guys weren't able to capitalize on draws that were decidedly in their favor, and instead we saw some surprising names not only claim the titles, but also make big runs to the finals.

I'll start in Marseille, where we arguably saw the least unexpected results as second seed and defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to make a return to glory after a bit of a rough start to the year. But that's not to say everything went according to plan. Alexander Bublik got upsets not only over Benoit Paire but also an often-volatile Denis Shapovalov. And Gilles Simon pulled off a stunning win over Daniil Medvedev, who late last year was pretty close to unstoppable.

With all that going on, it's worth giving a little props to Tsitsipas's accomplishment. As I mentioned, the world #6 has had some hiccups this year -- after winning the year-end championship in 2019, he lost two out of his three matches at the ATP Cup, was upset by an on-the-mend Milos Raonic in Melbourne, and only won one match in Rotterdam. And while he didn't face any big threats this past week, he also didn't drop a set, scooting past young Felix Auger-Aliassime in under ninety minutes. The win earned him a fifth career title and may have helped get his season, which started off with so much promise, back on track.

Things were a little more topsy-turvy in Delray Beach, where only three seeds made it out of the first round, and that set the stage for some real stand-out performances -- encouragingly, many from Americans. Among them: Brandon Nakashima, a wildcard who notched wins over Jiri Vesely and Cameron Norrie on his way to the quarters, Soonwoo Kwon, who followed up an upset of Milos Raonic in New York last week with another run to the final eight, and maybe most impressively, Jack Sock, who broke down in tears after winning his first singles match since 2018.

But with all that action, we got the biggest Cinderella story out of 24-year old Yoshihito Nishioka, who battled through four three-set matches during the week, garnering wins over John Millman and Ugo Humbert in the process. He was ultimately felled by fourth seed Reilly Opelka in the final -- the American rebounded after a heart-breaking loss in the Melbourne first round and an early ouster last week, when he was trying to defend his New York title, and won not one but two matches on Sunday -- but his run cut 15 spots from his ranking, allowing him to make his debut in the ATP top fifty. And with a game that looks kind of reminiscent of that other young man from Japan, there are high hopes that he's going even higher.

But with all that going on, the biggest surprises last week no doubt came on the rain-addled courts of Rio. Multiple delays led to a lot of catch-up play, which inevitably contributed to some of the less-than-expected results, but others happened even without the excuse of the weather. It started with a win by sixteen-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, the youngest man to win a tour-level match since 2013 -- an admittedly weird stat, considering how often we seem to set "youngest ever" records on the ladies' circuit -- he drew an upset of Albert Ramos-Viñolas in the first round and rocketed up 92 ranking spots with the win. And then there was Atilla Balazs, a very lucky loser who defeated Pablo Cuevas in his opener and kept going until the semis.

But the standout in Brazil had to be Gianluca Mager, a 25-year-old Italian who had a 2-3 career record before last week. After qualifying for the main draw, he ran in the quarters into Dominic Thiem -- arguably the second best clay court player in active duty, with his sights set this week on taking over Roger Federer as #3 in the world -- and got a set and a break lead on him before play was called. He might have ceded that advantage when the match resumed Saturday, but instead held strong and scored by far the biggest win of his career. Like his final opponent Cristian Garin, he had to finish up his semi and contest the championship on Sunday, a feat that finally proved too much for him, but his showing all week certainly put him on the map as we head into the spring season.

Of course the real test for all these guys will come in the weeks ahead -- there are, after all, a slew of top ten players in action this week in Dubai and Acapulco. But if they can harness whatever magic they found over the last few days, there's no reason to expect we won't be seeing a lot more of them in the winner's circle down the road.

The Standouts

Sometimes you don't have to win a tournament to really make a statement. After all, only one person can be left holding the trophy at the end of the day, but plenty of others can not only have matches of their lives along the way, but can certainly make it easier for that eventual champion to claim the win. And at this week's events from Thailand to New York and Europe, we certainly saw some career-making runs among those who didn't quite seal the deals.

Let's start with the men in Buenos Aires, where we saw some clay court veterans try to make a stand. Thirty-four year old Pablo Cuevas did manage an upset of Albert Ramos, just two years his junior, and took top-seeded Diego Schwartzman to three sets before losing in the quarters. But Argentina's Guido Pella, seeded second thanks largely to a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year, was less fortunate, losing his second match of the event to Juan Ignacio Londero, after squeaking through a qualifier in his opener. Today's final, though, will be a battle between the old and new guard in the most unlikely of ways. Eighth seeded Casper Ruud, who picked off John Isner and Fabio Fognini at the ATP Cup this year, has largely sailed through the draw, upsetting world #24 Dusan Lajovic on the way to his first career final. Only Portugal's Pedro Sousa, ten years older than him, stands in his way. The lucky loser, who benefited from the withdrawal of Cristian Garin, hasn't had a real test this event as Schwartzman pulled out with a leg injury ahead of their semi. Ruud is the heavy favorite for this match, but win or lose, something tells me we'll be seeing a lot more of him this year.

Then we head over to Rotterdam where Gael Monfils just picked up a second title in as many weeks. Still, let's not discount the performance of his final opponent Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian teen was one of my players to watch this year, but kind of got off to a slow start. After losing all but one of his matches at the ATP Cup, he lost in the Adelaide semis to the seemingly unstoppable Andrey Rublev, and he was shocked by a resurgent Ernests Gulbis in his Australian Open first round. But he seems to have found his game again this week -- just barely unseeded he took out an always tough Grigor Dimitrov and Aljaz Bedene, who'd dispatched second seed but struggling Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round. The championship match may not have gone the way he hoped, but his performance up to that point certainly makes me more optimistic for the future of FAA.

Closer to home for me, the New York Open was full of upsets and surprises. Mustachioed Jordan Thompson, who's had a solid career on the Challenger's circuit and stunned Andy Murray at Queen's Club a few years back, hasn't had consistent success on the main tour and had only won a single match so far this year. But after dismissing big-serving Ivo Karlovic in his first round he took on another ace machine in top-seeded John Isner, getting the win in three sets and two and a half hours. And Soonwoo Kwon, ranked 84^th in the world managed a big upset of Milos Raonic on his way to the quarterfinals. But the real surprise of this event for me was thirty-year-old Jason Jung, who's never cracked the top hundred in his long career and had to battle through qualifying round last week. He took out another big man in Kevin Anderson, a two-time Major finalist, in his opener and defending champion Reilly Opelka to make the semis. While he was ultimately stopped by Andreas Seppi, his performance certainly puts him on a map he may never have been on before.

Some of the more amazing breakthroughs, though, happened on the women's tour this week. In St. Petersburg, ultimately second seeded Kiki Bertens got the win over a red-hot Elena Rybakina in the final, but some much more interesting stories emerged earlier in the draw. There was unseeded Ekaterina Alexandrova, who notched her first career title to start the year in Shenzhen -- she beet Donna Vekic on her way to the semis -- and Oceane Dodin, who caught my eye years ago with a win over Jelena Jankovic at the U.S. Open. This week she scored wins over Viktoria Kuzmova and Johanna Konta. But perhaps the one to watch out of this event is Maria Sakkari -- yes, she's seeded just outside the top twenty, but she's playing well above that ranking. The Greek got a solid win over Madison Keys and took Petra Kvitova to three in Melbourne. This week in Russia, she ousted top seed Belinda Bencic and won the first set off Rybakina. She's only won one trophy in her career so far -- taking the title in Rabat last year -- but she seems primed to really have a breakthrough in 2020.

And that leaves us with Hua Hin, where the draw went the way no one would have expected. Nao Hibino, who lost to Sakkari in Melbourne, scored her first top ten win over Elina Svitolina on her way to the semis, and Patricia Maria Tig took out two seeded players during her run. But the big story here was nineteen-year-old Leonie Kung, currently ranked #283 in the world. The Swiss qualifier not only ended Hibino's campaign, but took out Qiang Wang, the woman who stunned Serena in the Australian Open third round. While Kung ultimately lost in the final to fifth-seeded Magda Linette, it seems her star is only rising, and I'll be excited to see what she brings to the table this year.

While these guys may not have been the ultimate winners this week, they all certainly made the case that they should be taken seriously on the court. It's hard to tell, of course, whether they'll all be able to follow up their performances this past week with more success down the road, but it sure feels like they were each able to make a couple of splashes. Whatever the case, you can be sure you haven't heard the last from any of these guys.

2020 Vision: It's Going to Be a Big Year!

It's been a long time since I've written regularly here, but as one of my New Year's resolutions, I've decided to re-dedicate myself to the sport I love and the craft that has at times been a second career for me⁽¹⁾.

There are a couple reasons I'm coming back home, but maybe the main one is that I was truly inspired by a collection of essays I recently read by David Foster Wallace. Even if you're not a fan of tennis, I highly recommend you get yourself a copy. As a one-time ranked juniors player and an exceptional writer, Wallace's knowledge of and take on the players, the tour, and even the science⁽²⁾ of our sport is deeply incisive and, frankly, humbling. Not only did it make the prospect of reading his seminal, thousand-plus-page Infinite Jest no longer seem so daunting, but it made me rethink my entire life trajectory. Why didn't I join the Juniors circuit as a child and at least attempt to go pro? Why don't I quit my job now, fly immediately to Melbourne, and spend the rest of my days following the tour?

Well, Wallace's writing certainly disabused me of any belief that I could come close to holding my own on court against the pros, even on my best day⁽³⁾. But perhaps there's still an opportunity to realize that second goal and emulate him just a bit⁽⁴⁾.

And there couldn't be a better time to get back into tennis. At the dawn of a new decade there are so many great stories to follow: from the continued dominance of the Big Three in the men's game, to Serena's chasing history; from the rise of a new generation of greats, to perhaps a comeback from the last one.

So as we get ready to ring in what's sure to be a very eventful New Year, I'm going to look at some of the stories that could capture our collective attention in 2020. I was originally going to lay them all out in one big post, but there's so much to get to and more things will likely come up as we go. So I've decided instead to lay things out over the next few days. And if some of it seeps into January, well, so be it.

And because I've already teased a couple thoughts, might as well start with those.

The Big Three...and Their Successors

There seems to be no question that Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic will hit the ground running in 2020 and could very well keep up the pace well into the new decade. After all, they combined to win the last twelve Majors. And as a testament to their longevity, here's the shocker -- we could've said almost the same thing ten years ago: between 2005 and 2009, there were only two Slams that didn't go to the trio! (To be fair, Nole only accounted for one of those in the last decade. He's got fifteen this past one, and as the youngest of the three seems most likely to last longest into the '20s.)

Sure there were moments when a couple others showed signs of promise. Andy Murray for a while threatened to infiltrate the group -- for a while I was irked by the fact that he was consistently included in the Big Four while Juan Martin Del Potro was never given a shot -- and Stan Wawrinka managed to stake his claim to three Majors himself. Even Marin Cilic, who managed a couple finals after his breakthrough in New York, has held his own. All have struggled with injury, Murray even coming to the brink of retirement, but they certainly remain relevant in the latter half of draws -- Murray even pulled off a stunning title run in Antwerp in October.

But if we're looking for the next generation of power players -- after all, the reign of Rafa, Roger, and Nole cannot last forever -- we may have to look elsewhere. And this year may have given us the best opportunity yet to find those contenders. The average age of the top ten, minus the Big Three, is the youngest it's been since 2009, and some of them have already made strides. Dominic Thiem has reached two Major finals, and Daniil Medvedev looked for a moment like he could have been the spoiler at this past U.S. Open. Meanwhile Alexander Zverev may have had a quiet start to the year, but he bounced back in London with a run to the semis. And Stefanos Tsitsipas, who rocketed up the rankings in the last 18 months, has wins over all of the Big Three this year -- and a shiny new ATP Finals trophy to boot.

There are real hopefuls outside the top ten too. I've held my breath more than a few times watching Karen Khachanov face off against Nadal over the years. And young Felix Auger-Aliassime, the surprise semifinalist in Miami this year, has a handful of wins over the elite players this year. It may be a couple years before their breakouts, but at the very least, I'm going to have to learn how to pronounce more than a couple of names. And of course, there are the surprise stand-outs that seemingly come out of nowhere.

Of course, I don't expect the Three Kings to leave the door too wide open for these guys. I imagine they've still got at least a handful of big titles left in them, but we're certainly facing a regime change soon. Will the game be the same when they hang up their hats? Of course not. But there seems to be some hope for what's to come.

Well, I think that's good for now. Come back tomorrow for my thoughts on Serena in 2020. And be sure to keep coming back to Tennis Spin all year long!

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⁽¹⁾ My other career -- thankfully -- is no longer so all-consuming and now affords me the luxury of spending more time here. My other resolution -- recurring -- is to improve my posture, but I've failed at keeping that up past Day One some six years running. Hopefully I'll be more successful with this.

⁽²⁾ Exactly how tall do you have to be, and how high should you toss the ball, and at what angle should you hold your racket, to hit a 125 mph serve wide into the deuce court when you're in Cincinnati and there's a tornado brewing in Toledo?

⁽³⁾ No matter now get-able those shots seem on TV.

⁽⁴⁾ I promise, though, that I have no intention of mimicking Wallace's prolific use of footnotes. This is my last one, I swear.