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Showing posts with label Pablo Carreno Busta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pablo Carreno Busta. Show all posts

July 31, 2021

History, Interrupted


Novak Djokovic had a lot riding on his performance at this year's Olympics.

After his stunning, and frankly brilliant, win at the French Open, tongues started wagging that a Grand Slam and an even rarer Golden Slam were potentially in sight. And when he picked up a third straight Wimbledon title earlier this month, the countdown began in earnest -- just thirteen more match wins, and the #GOAT 🐐 contender would do what no man had ever before.

But, sadly, it was not to be.

Though Djokovic looked characteristically unstoppable in his early rounds in Tokyo this week, he ran into a surprising stumbling block in Friday's semi against Alexander Zverev. Down a set and a break, the German rallied to win eight straight games and stunned Nole for only his third win against the world #1, and his first since 2018.

And after losing the bronze medal match today against Pablo Carreño Busta, the man whose only previous win against Djokovic came thanks to a bizarre default at last year's U.S. Open, and subsequently pulling out of mixed doubles, Novak walked away from the Olympics without any hardware, an outcome I don't think anyone would have predicted a week ago.

It's the second time he's lost the consolation round at the Games -- in London 2012, he fell to Juan Martin Del Potro after losing to eventual gold medalist Andy Murray in the semis -- and one of the very few times he's lost two matches in a row. And it leaves Steffi Graf's legacy as the only person ever to win the Golden Slam in tact at least until 2024.

Of course, this is far from the last we'll hear from Djokovic, and he has plenty of opportunity to still make history this year. While he did point to the injuries he's been dealing with, he's got a month to recover before the U.S. Open, where he'll still vie to become the first man since Rod Laver to win every Major in the same calendar year. And that's no small feat.

And, who knows? Maybe now some of the pressure has been lifted form his shoulders he'll hit the courts again even stronger. After all, we've seen so clearly these last few months how much that can weigh on elite athletes, and with even a little of it taken away now, there's no reason to expect him to pick things up where he left off.

There's still a lot of history for Djokovic to make, and this may be just a little break along the way.

Elsewhere in Tokyo...

While all the Olympic tennis attention may have been on Djokovic, let's take a moment to shout out Carreño Busta who beat not just the world #1 on his way to the bronze medal, but also took out world #2 Daniil Medvedev in the quarters. He may not have won the biggest prize, but to him it's just about as good as gold.

Still that match, between Zverev and Russia's Karen Khachanov will be contested tomorrow, and while the fourth seed may be the heavy on-paper favorite, you can't count out an upset here too. Khachanov won the pair's last two meetings, albeit the most recent two yeas ago, and has notched victories over PCB, Diego Schwartzman and Ugo Humbert already this week. And given how topsy-turvy the draws have been, you never can tell what's going to happen here.

After all, who would have guessed Belinda Bencic, who'd racked up a mediocre 17-14 record so far this year, would walk away with the ladies' gold medal in Tokyo? But the world #12, who I thought for sure would drop her opener against the talented but unseeded Jessica Pegula, not only persevered, but went on to beat both of this year's Roland Garros finalists, giant-killer Elena Rybakina, and, in today's gold medal match, Marketa Vondrousova, who'd backed up her own stunning upset of Naomi Osaka by taking out eventual bronze medalist Elina Svitolina in the semis.

It's certainly been an Olympics we'd never expected in so many ways, and with so much history -- not to mention patriotic pride -- on the line, that should be no surprise. But it's going to be three years before they get a chance to play the Games again, so here's hoping they're able to keep bringing the same fire again well before then.
Posted by Kavitha at 11:03 AM 0 comments
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April 11, 2021

Where Anything Can Happen

We should know by now there are very few certainties on the clay court -- other than, of course, that if you're facing Rafael Nadal on it, it's pretty inevitable you're going to lose. But everyone else is much more vulnerable, so it shouldn't be such a surprise that so many unlikely stars were able to make such big statements over the past week, as we kicked off the now slightly longer road to Roland Garros.


Copa Calsanitas, Bogotá, Colombia

I'll start in Bogotá, where the upsets came early and came often. Perhaps it shouldn't be that much of a shocker, as the only entrant in the top fifty was a recently surging Sara Sorribes Tormo, whose run in Miami came just a bit too late to give her the top seed here. But she lost her opening match to veteran Sara Errani, and the woman who did squeak into that #1 spot, Saisai Zhang, dropped one round later. Ultimately only one seed made it as far as the quarterfinals, and Tamara Zidansek, the 23-year-old from Slovenia ranked #93 in the world, was able to stay steady enough to make her second career final.

But in Sunday's match she ran into nineteen year old Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, a wildcard who'd played only a handful of tour-level main draws before this. But the former top-ranked Junior and 2019 U.S. Open Girls' champ was understandably at home on the courts of her native Colombia, scoring wins over seventh seed Tereza Martincova and veteran Stefanie Voegele. In the final, she dropped the first set to Zidansek, the first she'd lost all week, but then rallied back to stun her opponent in a nearly three hour match to claim the trophy. The win not only earned her some serious bragging rights, but may have put her on the radar as a potential spoiler as things really start heating up. After all, we know this is the part of the season when the young guns can really shine.

Volvo Car Open, Charleston, South Carolina

The stakes were a little higher in Charleston, where four Grand Slam champions were counted among the seeds, another elsewhere in the draw. But the favorites strunggled here too -- red hot Garbiñe Muguruza retired with a leg injury while up a bagel set to Yulia Putintseva in the third round, while Sofia Kenin lost her opener and Miami champ Ashleigh Barty was stunned by Paula Badosa in the quarters. And Petra Kvitova was ousted surprisingly easily by world #91 Danka Kovinic, who beat two more seeds on her way to the final.

There, though, she met world #38 Veronika Kudermetova, the fifteen seed who'd taken out that other Major winner -- a still-struggling Sloane Stephens -- in the quarters. It was the second championship match of her career -- she kicked off 2021 with a run to the title match in Abu Dhabi, beating Elina Svitolina before finally bowing to then unbeatable Aryna Sabalenka -- but she'd had a much easier road than her opponent, not facing another seed during her run. And she made good on her favored status in the final too, breaking her opponent four times on her way to the win. It was her first career trophy and might be enough to push her into seeding territory for the next Slam. And if she keeps her momentum going, it could really make some other sit up and take notice.

Sardegna Open, Cagliari, Italy

Things went a little more according to plan for the men last week, but that's not to say there weren't any surprises. In Cagliari, young Lorenzo Musetti stayed strong in a roller coaster of a match with top seeded Daniel Evans, saving four match points before getting the win in the second round. And world #49 Laslo Djere made a big play for his third clay court title, notching upsets over sixth seeded John Millman and fourth seed Nikoloz Basilashvili on his way to the final.

Meanwhile third seeded Lorenzo Sonego was plugging away in the bottom half of the draw. The 25-year-old Italian can be a little up and down in his play -- he lost his first five matches of last season and then scored one of the biggest upsets of the year with a win over Novak Djokovic in Vienna. In 2021 too, he lost his opener at the Murray River Open to world #265 Jason Kubler and couldn't seem to get much traction at events after that. That changed this week in Italy, though -- after staging a comeback against a very talented Yannick Hanfmann in the quarters, he got the better over second seed Taylor Fritz in the semis. He was tested again by Djere in the final, but he was able to stay strong and win his second career title. For added measure, he teamed up with compatriot Andrea Vavassori to also claim the doubles trophy. And if he can play as consistently as he did this week, he could cause a lot of trouble for the favorites when the stakes get raised.

Andalucia Open, Marbella, Spain

Of course not all top seeds were so unlucky this week. In Marbella, Pablo Carreño Busta, who'd been a little quiet this year after his phenomenal end to the 2020 season, was able to make good on his spot at the top and claim his fifth career title, his second on the dirt. Without having to face anyone in the top forty during his run, he was the clear favorite in the championship match. But that's not to say we didn't see some other surprises in Spain.

Seventeen-year-old phenom Carlos Alcaraz continued his ascent on tour, stunning veteran Feliciano Lopez in his second round and following up with a win over a quickly climbing Casper Ruud a match later. The wins earned him his first ATP semifinal and boosted him fifteen ranking spots to #118 in the world. And something tells me that number is only going higher from here. He did eventually lose to finalist Jaume Munar, though -- the fellow Spaniard, ranked just inside the top hundred, had opened his run with a solid win over an often spotty Fabio Fognini. And while he couldn't ultimately get the better of PCB in the championship match, the fact that he pushed the eventual champion to three sets might bode well for his future too.



So with week one of the 2021 clay court season in the books, and the big events starting with the Rolex Masters around the corner, we're starting to see how things could shape up as we head to Paris. Can this week's winners make any real headway at the bigger events? Well, some have better chances than others. But with momentum on their side right now, it should be fun to see what they do with it.
Posted by Kavitha at 5:23 PM 0 comments
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December 9, 2020

The 2020 Tennis Spin Awards: Biggest Upsets

One of the best things about tennis, I think, and sports in general, is the unexpected -- unless you're on the losing side, of course. Favorites are only favorites on paper, and anyone could find a moment of glory and outshine an opponent or take advantage of a rare moment of weakness.

So today I'll celebrate those surprises -- the wins we never saw coming and the Davids who so shockingly slayed the Goliaths against the most unlikely of circumstances. This edition of the Tennis Spin Awards goes to...


Let's get right to 'em!!


The Women

The Winner: Shelby Rogers d. Serena Williams, Lexington, 1-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)

This one was a stunner for so many reasons. Serena Williams was the top seed at the inaugural Top Seed Open, which, as the first event out of lockdown and just a few weeks ahead of the revamped U.S. Open, had attracted a slate of elite talent. And Williams looked good -- after ending a near three-year title drought in Auckland to start the year, she had battled past her sister in the second round here, a match that reminded us why these two have contested nine Grand Slam finals.

Shelby Rogers, on the other hand, was still clawing back from surgery in 2018 which had dropped her ranking into the 700s. This year she'd played mostly ITF and Challenger events, qualified for the Australian Open and lost a weird 6-0, 1-6, 0-6 opener to eventual runner-up Garbinñe Muguruza, and dropped her first round match in Acapulco.

She'd been able to climb to #116 in the world by the time she hit Lexington, but even after a nice win over talented teen Leylah Fernadez, she wasn't given much of a chance against the in-form Williams, especially not after dropping the first set in less than half an hour. But the 28-year-old American somehow found a way to fight back. She broke late in the second to force a decider and took control in the final set tiebreak, winning the match in just over two hours.

It was the first time Williams had lost to a player ranked in triple digits since that shocking loss to then-#111 Virginie Razzano at the French Open in 2012.

For Rogers, who did lose her next round in Lexington, it nevertheless did propel the second half of her season. She went on to defeat Petra Kvitova at the U.S. Open, earning her first Major quarter since 2016, and finished the year at #58 in the world. If she can bring the same heat she had into the new season, I'm hoping she can climb even higher.



Honorable Mention: Varvara Gracheva d. Kristina Mladenovic, U.S. Open, 1-6, 7-6(2), 6-0

The fact that Kristina Mladenovic, who's had moments of brilliance as a singles player but has always been more of a doubles specialist, lost this match isn't as much of a surprise as is the way she lost it. In a U.S. Open where so few of the top women played, Kiki, ranked 44th at the time was given a #30 seed and faced off against a 20-year-old Russian playing her first Grand Slam event. The veteran was up 6-1, 5-1 and, with four match points, seemed a lock to advance. But a spectacular collapse led her to a tiebreak and a bagel in the last set.

Varvara Gracheva, like Rogers above, couldn't make her luck last much longer, losing in straights to Petra Martic, but she managed a semifinal run at an ITF event in Cagnes-Sur-Mer.

Mladenovic, meanwhile, who acknowledged her breakdown, also took the opportunity to rage against the conditions imposed by the USTA due to COVID, complaining about the daily testing and strict bubble requirements enforced due to her having contact with Benoit Paire, who'd tested postitive at the event. She was then withdrawn from doubles for that same exposure ahead of the second round. While she and partner Timea Babos would go on to win the French Open, her experience at the U.S. was an upset in so many ways.


The Men

The Winner: Lorenzo Sonego d. Novak Djokovic, Vienna, 6-2, 6-1

As we all know, Novak Djokovic does not lose a lot. He began this year with a win streak that rivaled his majestic run in 2011, and if you put an asterisk next to that U.S. Open default, he technically went 37 matches before his first true loss of the year in the French Open final. And, losing to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros, you can almost put an asterisk next to that too.

That's what makes his performance against Lorenzo Sonego in Vienna so surprising. The 25-year-old Italian was ranked 44th at the time and actually lost in qualifying, but was granted entry when Diego Schwartzman pulled out of the event. He played well in his early rounds, but still should have been a cakewalk for Djokovic in the quarters. But Sonego simply rolled over his opponent, dropping just three games over the course of just over an hour and earning his first ever victory against a top ten player.

But the win was even more significant than that. It was only the second time Nole won just three games in a match -- the last being in 2005 when, at 17, he lost his first round at the Australian Open to eventual champion Marat Safin. It was also the first time he lost to a lucky loser. And while he'd already locked in the year-end #1 ranking, the loss may have rattled him more than he let on -- he lost in straight sets to Daniil Medvedev in the ATP Finals and couldn't find a way past Dominic Thiem in the semis.

Sonego, meanwhile, went on to the final in Vienna, losing to Andrey Rublev in straight sets, and jumped to a career-high ranking of #32. Certainly more on everyone's radar now, we'll see if he can bring a little more confidence and firepower into 2021.



Honorable Mention: Pablo Carreño Busta d. Denis Shapovalov, U.S. Open, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(4), 0-6, 6-3

It's not that we shouldn't have expected big things from Pablo Carreño Busta in New York -- the Spaniard cracked the top ten three years ago after reaching the semifinals at the U.S. Open for the first time, and three of his four titles have come on hard courts. Still, after he reached the quarters after the bizarre default by Novak Djokovic, we were all watching to see what he made of the opportunity he was given.

He didn't disappoint -- against a supremely talented and higher seeded Denis Shapovalov, who had already dealt with a couple tough matches at the Open, he regrouped after an ugly 0-6 fourth set to win the decider, ending a four-plus hour match that lasted until after one a.m. He very nearly won his next match too, taking a two set lead on Alexander Zverev in the semis, but ultimately fallin in that nearly three and a half hour contest.

Shapovalov, to his credit, got right back to work, making the semis in Rome and making his own debut in the top ten. It'll be fun to watch what both these guys do in the new year.


Be sure to come back for more Tennis Spin Awards. Up next: the ones to watch -- the young talent on the courts that just started to let themselves shine this season.

And to see all of the winners this year and in years past, click here.
Posted by Kavitha at 2:03 PM 0 comments
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September 10, 2020

A Couple Early Predictions Ready to Come True

Well here we are in the final stretches of what's been a very different and extremely surreal U.S. Open. We knew coming into this that we'd be in for some surprises, but I'm not sure anyone could have guessed what the last week and a half had in store for us. But as I look at the eight players still vying for the title, it strikes me that a couple things I'd been hoping against all hope for at the start of the year might actually be about to come true, under the weirdest of circumstances.


Don't get me wrong -- I don't mean to brag. I certainly didn't expect a global pandemic would wipe out half the tennis season and keep a vast number of the sport's top players out of the mix for the second, and possibly third and last, Major of the year. And I would never have thought an undefeated Novak Djokovic would be defaulted in the fourth round and set off a firestorm against an unassuming lineswoman.

But a combination of luck (good or bad, depending on how you look at it) and dogged hard work has put a couple of my 2020 predictions within reach. So let's take a look at them in a little more detail, starting with one that will absolutely happen this weekend.

Prediction #1: Someone not named Rafa, Roger, or Novak wins a Major

While I could not have possibly known this would be a result of 1) knee surgery for Roger Federer, 2) a pandemic keeping Rafael Nadal from defending his U.S. Open crown, and 3) Novak Djokovic smacking a ball in frustration and hitting a lineswoman in the throat, we nevertheless have guaranteed a first-time Grand Slam winner on the men's side. It might not be Juan Martin Del Potro (😢) or Frances Tiafoe (who actually had a reassuring run in New York this year) as I'd hoped, but it will be a new name, nevertheless.

This prediction nearly came to fruition back in Australia, when Dominic Thiem, who'd already beaten Rafa and Alexander Zverev, had a 2-1 set lead over Nole in the final, but the Austrian couldn't quite close the deal. Now, as the semifinalist with the most experience in Major championship matches, he might have the best shot at closing the deal. But we can't count out the other contenders.

Zverev reached his second straight Slam semi with a win over Borna Coric in the quarters, but he's dropped a couple sets here and there. And I can't help but feel like a win by Pablo Carreño Busta, the "beneficiary" of the Djokovic default, would be most fitting. And the Spaniard has a chance -- while you might assume he's a clay specialist, three of the former world #10's four titles have come on the hard courts, and he showed us just how much talent he has in his come-from-behind win against Denis Shapovalov last round. He's lost his one previous match against Zverev, but I sure would like to see him reverse that fortune

But probably the strongest player left in the field is last year's runner-up Daniil Medvedev, who seemed to revel in the hatred of the New York crowd in 2019. Well, the fans are gone this time around, but the 24-year-old Russian hasn't lost a beat and has been clinical in his wins over the first five rounds. He's the only man standing who hasn't lost a set this event, and though he's got a slight losing record against Thiem (1-2), something tells me he's going to be loathe to do so now. And I wouldn't be surprised if he goes one better on his breakout run from last year.

Prediction #2: Vika re-enters the top ten

This one was in real danger right off the bat in 2020, with Victoria Azarenka pulling out of the Australian Open and alluding to the fact that she might even retire this year. She lost her first match back in Monterrey, then got sidelines from the shutdown, and dropped her opener to Venus Williams in Lexington.

Boy, have things turned around since then, though. She took out four higher ranked players in "Cincy", including seeded Donna Vekic and Johanna Konta, and while she benefitted from a walkover by Naomi Osaka in the final, she picked up her first title since 2016 and cut her ranking from #59 to #27. Single digits are certainly in sight too, now that she's made the semis at the Open, notching wins over Aryna Sabalenka -- who beat her here last year -- and a talented Karolina Muchova, before absolutely dismantling a very talented Elise Mertens last night.

Next up, though, is Serena Williams, who's beaten Vika in 18 of their previous 22 matches, twice in the finals here. This one promises to be a battle, too, with Serena still chasing that elusive 24th Grand Slam title, a feat she's come up short at in her previous eight tries. But despite early losses in Lexington and the Western & Southern, she's looked good so far this tournament and might just be ready to close the deal.

Still, while this semi certainly has the makings of a final, the winner is far from guaranteed a title. Naomi Osaka, who denied Serena in one of those attempts is still the oddsmakers' favorite for the championship, and since pulling out of the W&S final has looked strong and healthy. And summer standout Jennifer Brady, the only one of these women who's never won a Major -- never even made it out of the fourth round -- has been on fire in New York, not dropping a set in any of her singles matches yet. She might just have what it takes to give us two first time titleists this event.

Win or lose, though, Azarenka is certainly on her way up the rankings, and with a few months of tennis back on the calendar, there's no telling what she'll be able to do with the time.


By the way, I haven't been completely off base with my other two predictions for the year, either. Perhaps we haven't yet seen huge things from Dayana Yastremska, Anastasia Potapova, or Amanda Anisimova this year, there's still time for them to make a splash on clay. Meanwhile we've seen some new candidates for the Next Big Thing, from Iga Swiatek to Jannik Sinner.

And while John Isner remians the top-ranked male player in the U.S., some controversial comments during an Atlanta exhibition and a first round exit at the U.S. Open could indicate the start of a reckoning for the big man. Whether a full one comes to bear, well, we'll certainly see over the next few weeks.

After all, there's still a lot of tennis left to come this year, and if this event is any indication we'll be in for a lot more excitement to come.
Posted by Kavitha at 12:36 PM 0 comments
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