Giant Slayer

Brava, Camila! 🇮🇹 🏆#OBN21 pic.twitter.com/LbiAwTj1yz

— wta (@WTA) August 15, 2021

It's been a long and winding road for Camila Giorgi the last few years.

The 29-year-old Italian first caught our eye at Wimbledon back in 2012 when, ranked #145 in the world, she stunned compatriot Flavia Penetta and former world #3 Nadia Petrova on her way to the fourth round. She scored some big wins after that, too, stunning Caroline Wozniacki at the U.S. Open in 2013, beating Maria Sharapova at Indian Wells a year later, and running to the quarters at the All England Club in 2018, her best yet performance at a Major and the catalyst for her career high ranking at #26.

But she's been a little inconsistent around her successes. After making the final at the Citi Open in 2019, she lost the first round in Cincy. Another runner-up finish in the Bronx that summer was followed by an opening round exit at Flushing Meadows. She started this season ranked #76 and between August of last year and this past June she only won more than two matches at the same event once.

Things may be changing for her though. Clearly most comfortable on grass, she stunned an on-fire Aryna Sabalenka in the Eastbourne quarters. And her switch to hardcourts has been rather impressive -- she took out Jen Brady and Wimbledon finalist Karolina Pliskova on her way to the final eight in Tokyo. And that was nothing compared to what she did this past week in Montreal.

Unseeded an low ranked, Giorgi was not dealt an easy hand at the Omnium Banque Nationale. She opened against ninth seed Elise Mertens and got the win in straight sets. She went on to take out 2020's surprise French semifinalist Nadia Podoroska, two-time Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova, wünderking Coco Gauff, all without dropping a set. In yesterday's semi against Jessica Pegula, she avenged that loss in Washington two years ago, and today she scored her third win of the season over Pliskova, whose own run here got her a ticket back to the top five.

It's quite an intimidating list of opponents she left in her wake, and for her efforts she was appropriately awarded with by far the biggest title of her career. But maybe more importantly, she proved she can be dangerous even off the surface we've come to believe is her best, and that could make her quite a threat as we count down to the final Major of the year.

Meanwhile...

Of course, it wasn't just Giorgi bringing home the hardware this weekend. World #2 Daniil Medvedev put even more distance between himself and #GOAT 🐐 contender Rafael Nadal -- who, incidentally, slipped behind Stefanos Tsitsipas this week after an early loss in Washington pushed him out of the top three. The Russian, who breezed past big-serving Reilly Opelka in today's final in Toronto, added a third Masters crown to his résumé and has now one, or finished second at basically every important second half hard court event since 2019.

With Roger Federer out of the U.S. Open, and Nadal's withdrawal from Toronto and Cincy putting his prospects in question, Medvedev may be the best positioned to thwart Novak Djokovic's quest for that historic calendar year Grand Slam. I've said that before, of course, but something tells me this time things could be very different.

Trouble With the Serve

Over the weekend, Reilly Opelka won the first pro tennis event since lockdown began over two months ago, defeating Russia's Miomir Kecmanovic in three sets to claim the UTR Pro Match Series championship.

The victory didn't earn him any ranking points, but he did score some hard-to-come-by-these-days prize money -- he was quick to point out that ATP Officials have been paid their full salary since March, even as tour play has been suspended, while players themselves have had no means of truly earning their keep -- and that all-important match play during this unprecedented time.

And in watching Opelka on court, you can't help but be reminded of another American player with very similar attributes. 

At 6'11" (!!!) the 22-year-old is actually an inch taller than John Isner, and he understandably shares his compatriot's big weapon -- down 15-30 to Kecmanovic in the third set Saturday, he fired off three aces to win the game. In his two months of regular play this year, he's already hit 214 service winners, and over the past 52 weeks he trails only Isner in average aces per match.

But as we've also come to know, a serve in this sport is not everything. I've long lamented how many times Isner is forced into a tiebreak -- nearly half his sets this year have been decided in, well, deciders -- and if you can't break your opponent's serve then what good, really, is dominating yours?

Opelka is not entirely innocent of posting similar stats. He's only won 12% of his return games this year; Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, wins more than one of every three. And he's racking up as much time in tiebreak land as Isner -- every one of their ten sets against each other last year went 7-6 or 6-7.

But he is working to improve. That 12% record compares to the 10% he won on the receiving end last year, and is several times better than the 7% he notched in 2016. And he's consciously focused on fixing his weakness.

“I've spent a lot of time on my return,” he told the Tennis Channel after his win this weekend. “I returned well in Delray, and I returned well in Davis Cup. I’m much more confident in my return game. It’s so much more fun for me as a player to believe I can break serve. I’m not just focused on holding serve. It adds a whole other element to my game.”

Will that translate into more success when regular play resumes? Hopefully -- the world #39 has already had some decent results this season, taking Fabio Fognini to five sets in his Australian opener and winning that title in Delray, the second of his career, beating Milos Raonic along the way. Last year he beat Stan Wawrinka at Wimbledon. 

And, since the comparison with Isner is inevitable, Opelka won all three of their matches in 2019, so at the very least he seems to be winning the battle of the big servers for now. 

Of course, I don't mean to say that Isner's career isn't something to aspire to -- we could all do a lot worse than being ranked in the top twenty for the balance of a decade -- but I would like to see Reilly do even better. We could talk for hours about how long it's been since an American played a Grand Slam final, never mind won one. Opelka may or may not be our best chance at that, but he's certainly an option.

But even beyond the hardware he could earn, for him to really thrive on tour, we need to see a more well-rounded game. I have confidence he's getting there, and can't wait to see what he does when he's truly at the top of his game.

The Grand (Re)Opening

Tennis is getting back in action -- like real, live, professional tennis.

The Tennis Channel and MyUTR today announced the launch of the UTR Pro Match Series, whose first event will take place next weekend. ATP pros Matteo Berrettini, a semifinalist at the U.S. Open last year, Reilly Opelka, Tennys Sandgren and Tommy Paul will vie on an actual court for actual prize money starting May 8 -- the women, Amanda Anisimova, who made the final four at Roland Garros in 2019, Alison Riske, Danielle Collins ('19 Melbourne SF), and Ajla Tomljanovic, hold their own event starting May 22.

The matches, to be held in Florida, come as countries around the world and about half of U.S. states begin to lift some stay-at-home restrictions, even as the threat of the coronavirus remains front and center. It won't be exactly like the tournaments we're used to -- there won't be spectators or ball kids, and players will have their own set of marked balls to serve with, so there will hopefully be minimal risk of cross-contamination, and they'll have to provide their own drinks and towels.

The format could give us a glimpse of what Tour events might look like for the next several months. As I've said before, unlike other pro sports with obvious physical contact, tennis itself is presumably more adaptable to social distancing guidelines, and with proper steps can probably be kept relatively safe. That's the good news.

Another positive -- this gives an opportunity for players to earn what could be some much-needed income. Players and pundits have been quick to point out how big an economic toll the lockdown orders are having on lower-ranked players, Opelka even calling for tour officials to take a pay cut, as we've seen happen in other professional sports leagues.

How have ATP execs not taken any pay cut yet?? Pretty much every other sports organization has. (ITF, PGA, NBA) Tennis players have taken quite a big pay cut during the last few weeks.

— Reilly Opelka (@ReillyOpelka) April 23, 2020

This week's virtual Mutua Madrid Open was a nice first step in providing support -- Andy Murray and Kiki Bertens donating their winnings to the players' relief fund and the UK's National Health Service -- but it certainly doesn't solve the problem entirely. And, of course, neither does hosting an event with all the entrants in the top hundred, albeit far from the big endorsement players who will no doubt be fine during the shutdown.

But hopefully this event can give us a framework that'll eventually get more athletes back in the game. The exhibition matches being played between even lower-ranked players this weekend will help as well.

Still, is now the right time to get started? I don't know. I will say I'm not surprised host state Florida is one of the first in the U.S. to loosen restrictions, and I'm not sure people, Florida or elsewhere, have enough self-control not to rush the malls, beaches, and restaurants once that happens -- Central Park whenever it goes over 60° in New York is insane. But hopefully these events will be held to a higher standard, and players, officials and anyone else involved will take the necessary precautions.

After all, I'm surprisingly heartened by the tennis community's response to the pandemic, both in donating to health programs and front-line workers, and in taking #SocialDistancing guidelines not only seriously, but to new levels -- questionable vaccine beliefs notwithstanding.

So here's hoping our first event back is not only successful, but safe. I mean, we can all kind of agree with Sandgren here.

One can only run it down mid for so long... https://t.co/khFWm564Xo

— Tennys Sandgren (@TennysSandgren) May 1, 2020

My Dream Team

And so, it's official.

Tokyo and the IOC announced today that the 2020 Summer Olympics will be postponed, likely not happening until next year.

See you in 2021 !
🤷🏻‍♂️🥇💥🇯🇵 #olympics #greatmemories #goldmedal #seeyou #2021 #stayhome #staysafe pic.twitter.com/WV4cM1nSBt

— Stanislas Wawrinka (@stanwawrinka) March 24, 2020

It's not a surprising move, given all the other cancellations we've already seen -- not to mention the fact that Japan was smack dab in the middle of the coronavirus crisis at the outset.

Still it throws yet another wrench into what's already been a tumultuous season for tennis, and how the Games are ultimately scheduled brings up a lot of questions for the sport, as Jon Wertheim lays out so well in this Sports Illustrated piece. After all, officials aren't planning according to the tennis calendar -- as much as I'd like to believe that this sport is the one around which all others revolve, they've got to plan for everyone participating, athletes and otherwise, and there's no guarantee that the same weeks between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open will work next year.

But all those issues aside, one opportunity the delay does provide is that players not quite in the running to make the team this year can put their nose to the grindstone and qualify in 2021 -- that, of course, assumes they have a chance to put their nose to the grindstone. So today I'm going to wildly speculate about a couple of people I'd like to see play in some sixteen months time -- and since I'm in New York, I'll focus on the home team.

Let's start with the men -- John Isner currently sits atop the Americans' singles rankings, and while he did make the quarters in London, he skipped the Rio Games in favor of Atlanta and was already leaning toward sitting out this one too. Still there are a host of other men who could fill his shoes. Taylor Fritz and Reilly Opelka have the ranking points, and Tennys Sandgren, after his stellar run in Melbourne, has (had?) the momentum that could propel him to the top shortly once we get back in action, and you know my heart had early on been set on a star turn from Frances Tiafoe.

Unfortunately, some of the younger players way down the rankings who could be hitting their prime next year, may not get enough match play in time to boost their stature -- teenagers like Brandon Nakashima and Sebastian Korda have both had some nice results recently, but sitting sub-200 they may be a little too long of a shot.

By the way, let's not forget doubles. The Bryan Brothers, long a staple on the American roster, are supposed to retire after the U.S. Open, which should have allowed them to raise the flag for their country one more time. Will they change their minds, or do we need to look for some other options? I'd love to see Rajeev Ram take the lead -- the Australian Open champ has been playing a lot with Britain's Joe Salisbury, but could be a good anchor for a U.S. pair.

And then there are the ladies, who are also in danger of seeing some of their most stalwart representatives passing the age sweet spot for the sport -- Serena Williams will be 39 and Venus could be 41. Sure there's a cadre of young talent in the mix, from Sofia Kenin to Alison Riske to Coco Gauff, who'll finally be free from restrictions at the ripe old age of 17 next summer.

But there are a couple other women who could also make the cut. Outside the highest-ranked players, there's Jennifer Brady, who beat Ashleigh Barty in Brisbane and Elina Svitolina in Dubai, and Jessica Pegula, who reached the final in Auckland. Either one may storm back on the scene and surprise us all. But let's also keep an eye on 18-year-old Caty McNally -- she's had most of her success on the doubles court and is far overshadowed by her compatriots, but she's still got a win over Sam Stosur this year and took a set off Serena in New York in 2019. We always like to find a few star to focus our attention on, and there's no reason she can't be the next one.

Of course, like so many things these days, all this prognostication is like spitting in the wind. Who knows when we'll be back on the tennis courts and how even the best players will fare after such a long gap between match play? Still with so much real uncertainty out there, why not create a little of a more frivolous sort?

And as we all wait for the one day when it's actually safe to #ReopenAmerica, I'll send you all a virtual hug and hope to see you on the courts soon.

The Emerging Opportunities

Things sure got interesting on the men's tour last week -- we may have been down Nole, Rafa, and an in-recovery Roger, but there was plenty of top talent on the courts with a chance to show us what they've got. But for some reason, many of these guys weren't able to capitalize on draws that were decidedly in their favor, and instead we saw some surprising names not only claim the titles, but also make big runs to the finals.

I'll start in Marseille, where we arguably saw the least unexpected results as second seed and defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to make a return to glory after a bit of a rough start to the year. But that's not to say everything went according to plan. Alexander Bublik got upsets not only over Benoit Paire but also an often-volatile Denis Shapovalov. And Gilles Simon pulled off a stunning win over Daniil Medvedev, who late last year was pretty close to unstoppable.

With all that going on, it's worth giving a little props to Tsitsipas's accomplishment. As I mentioned, the world #6 has had some hiccups this year -- after winning the year-end championship in 2019, he lost two out of his three matches at the ATP Cup, was upset by an on-the-mend Milos Raonic in Melbourne, and only won one match in Rotterdam. And while he didn't face any big threats this past week, he also didn't drop a set, scooting past young Felix Auger-Aliassime in under ninety minutes. The win earned him a fifth career title and may have helped get his season, which started off with so much promise, back on track.

Things were a little more topsy-turvy in Delray Beach, where only three seeds made it out of the first round, and that set the stage for some real stand-out performances -- encouragingly, many from Americans. Among them: Brandon Nakashima, a wildcard who notched wins over Jiri Vesely and Cameron Norrie on his way to the quarters, Soonwoo Kwon, who followed up an upset of Milos Raonic in New York last week with another run to the final eight, and maybe most impressively, Jack Sock, who broke down in tears after winning his first singles match since 2018.

But with all that action, we got the biggest Cinderella story out of 24-year old Yoshihito Nishioka, who battled through four three-set matches during the week, garnering wins over John Millman and Ugo Humbert in the process. He was ultimately felled by fourth seed Reilly Opelka in the final -- the American rebounded after a heart-breaking loss in the Melbourne first round and an early ouster last week, when he was trying to defend his New York title, and won not one but two matches on Sunday -- but his run cut 15 spots from his ranking, allowing him to make his debut in the ATP top fifty. And with a game that looks kind of reminiscent of that other young man from Japan, there are high hopes that he's going even higher.

But with all that going on, the biggest surprises last week no doubt came on the rain-addled courts of Rio. Multiple delays led to a lot of catch-up play, which inevitably contributed to some of the less-than-expected results, but others happened even without the excuse of the weather. It started with a win by sixteen-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, the youngest man to win a tour-level match since 2013 -- an admittedly weird stat, considering how often we seem to set "youngest ever" records on the ladies' circuit -- he drew an upset of Albert Ramos-Viñolas in the first round and rocketed up 92 ranking spots with the win. And then there was Atilla Balazs, a very lucky loser who defeated Pablo Cuevas in his opener and kept going until the semis.

But the standout in Brazil had to be Gianluca Mager, a 25-year-old Italian who had a 2-3 career record before last week. After qualifying for the main draw, he ran in the quarters into Dominic Thiem -- arguably the second best clay court player in active duty, with his sights set this week on taking over Roger Federer as #3 in the world -- and got a set and a break lead on him before play was called. He might have ceded that advantage when the match resumed Saturday, but instead held strong and scored by far the biggest win of his career. Like his final opponent Cristian Garin, he had to finish up his semi and contest the championship on Sunday, a feat that finally proved too much for him, but his showing all week certainly put him on the map as we head into the spring season.

Of course the real test for all these guys will come in the weeks ahead -- there are, after all, a slew of top ten players in action this week in Dubai and Acapulco. But if they can harness whatever magic they found over the last few days, there's no reason to expect we won't be seeing a lot more of them in the winner's circle down the road.