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Showing posts with label Nick Kyrgios. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Kyrgios. Show all posts

February 3, 2021

A Strong Start Comes to a Halt

It was almost too good to be true.

With less than a week to go before the start of the Australian Open, players were finally out of quarantine and back on the courts. Some who we hadn't seen in quite some time came out swinging, others picked up right where they left off last year, and a couple more pulled off surprises no one saw coming.

And then, it all went on hold.

A positive COVID test from a worker at a hotel where players are staying caused all occupants to go back into isolation and forced organizers to cancel all matches scheduled for Thursday. What that means for matches the rest of the week -- and certainly for the Open next week -- remains to be seen, but it certainly goes to highlight the risks and intricacies of staging such a large event at a time like this.

And it is a shame, because we had seen such inspiring and encouraging play up to that point.

ATP Cup

I'll start with the ATP Cup, where Serbia is looking to defend its 2020 title and seems well on the way to doing that. But some of the more impressive results are coming from elsewhere in the draw. Daniil Medvedev is extending his ten-match win streak into the new year with wins over Diego Schwartzman (again) and Kei Nishikori, while compatriot Andrey Rublev, winner of more titles last year than anyone else, kept the Russians undefeated in singles, securing the team a spot in the semis.


And then there's Matteo Berrettini, who's admittedly making me eat a little crow in these early days of 2021. The top-ranked Italian is making up for some recent early losses and upsets this week, stunning Dominic Thiem in both singles and doubles and backing up those wins against a seemingly still on-the-mend Gael Monfils over night. That performance was enough to get Italy into the semis, and maybe enough to get him back in my good graces.

Murray River Open

They weren't the only men in action, of course. A slew of top thirty players are entered in the Murray River Open, and while Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov may be the headliners -- and some of my ones to watch like Casper Ruud and Ugo Humbert may have fallen a bit short -- there are others worth keeping an eye on.

Top of the list is Felix Auger-Aliassime, still striving for that first ATP tour title. The 20-year-old Canadian has made six finals in his short career and each time come away empty-handed. Does his luck change this week? He faces off against a talented Egor Gerasimov for a spot in the quarters, but may have a pretty clear path back to another championship match.

And then there's Nick Kyrgios, who we hadn't seen in action since last February. He won his first two matches and will next face off against Borna Coric, a man whose COVID diagnosis last year elicited no sympathy from the Aussie. Something tells me that match will bring all kinds of fireworks to the court.

Great Ocean Road Open

The final tournament for the men has brought its fair share of excitement as well. There was the angry outburst from the always-controversial Tennys Sandgren -- who maybe should change his name? -- during the one match he actually won, and the return of the newly controversial Sam Querrey. But there have been other standouts as well.

First there's Alexander Bublik, who so far seems to have recovered from the injury that forced him out of the Antalya final. Seeded eighth at the event, I continue to feel his ranking doesn't do justice to his talent. He was pushed in his opening match but managed a win and can hopefully continue the momentum. And we can't ignore young Jannik Sinner, who capped off last year with his first career trophy in Sofia. He too is probably better than his #36 ranking and could go a long way to proving that this week.

But the real one to watch at this event is seventeen-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, who won a couple Challenger events at the end of 2020, ran through qualifying rounds for the Australian Open, and this week shocked top seeded David Goffin in straight sets. He may be just inside the top 150, but if he keeps playing like this, he's going much higher, and soon.

Grampians Trophy

Of course it's not just the men in action in Melbourne this week. And while the much anticipated return of Bianca Andreescu was delayed, there were plenty of other stars to watch at the Grampians event. Last year's comeback kid Victoria Azarenka is going to make her latest case for a return to the top ten, and Jennifer Brady will look to follow through after her breakout season.

But there are some non-seeds worth a second look too. Let's start with Sorana Cirstea, who had her Cinderella run at the French Open over a decade ago. It's been a long time since then, but she did pick up an ITF title in Dubai at the end of last year and had some pretty inspired moments in New York too. She'll face second seeded Belinda Bencic next, but the one-time U.S. Open semifinalist has only won one match since the quarantine lifted and is imminently beatable. Sure would be great to see Cirstea put up a fight.

And of course, there's young Leylah Fernandez who is quickly making her way up the rankings. She opened her campaign with a win over Sloane Stephens, and while I have a hard time rooting against Maria Sakkari in the next round, the eighteen-year-old Canadian is more than capable of making that a match.

Gippsland Trophy

Things have gotten pretty interesting in the Gippsland draw too. While favorites Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka have advanced without much drama, Aryna Sabalenka's long win streak came to an end against the unlikely Kaia Kanepi, and red-hot Iga Swiatek was drubbed by an ever-talented Ekaterina Alexandrova.

But it's also worth watching Karolina Muchova, who's trying to get back to the glory of her stellar 2019 season. The former Wimbledon quarterfinalist crushed Caty McNally in her opening round and stayed steady for a win over Jasmine Paolini a round later. She'll face Kanepi for a spot in the semis, and I like her her chances to get the win.

Yarra Valley Classic

And finally there's the Yarra Valley Classic, marked by the return of Ashleigh Barty. I'll admit I've been surprised that she's been able to so seamlessly re-enter the fray, but she'll certainly be tested in her next round when she faces Shelby Rogers, who's already notched wins over Fiona Ferro and Petra Martic. I imagine this one could give us some fireworks.

Then there's Danielle Collins who, you might remember, made the semis at the Australian Open a few years back. She also stunned Garbiñe Muguruza and beat Ons Jabeur on her way to the quarters at Roland Garros last year. This week she took out Karolina Pliskova, her third win over a top ten player since the start of last season. It's only getting harder from here -- she meets Serena Williams next -- but it might not be the walk in the park for the favorite you might expect.

And then there's the other French Open standout Nadia Podoroska, whose run to the Paris semis included wins over Yulia Putintseva and Elina Svitolina. Now ranked #47 in the world, she pulled off a come-from-behind victory against two-time Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova to make the quarters. And with her next match against Marketa Vondrousova, she might just be able to keep her run going.

It'll be interesting to see how the rest of these events play out and what they mean for the Open. COVID restrictions and precautions aside, I can't remember the last time we've seen so many top-notch stars in action the days before a Grand Slam, and their strategy over the next few rounds could have a major impact on their performances next week.

But as always, here's hoping that whatever happens, everyone stays safe and healthy down in Melbourne. Because as much as we all want to get back to normal, we have to make sure we're doing it in the best possible way.

January 30, 2021

Gearing Up

Exhibitions are underway, warm-up events are about to start -- the Australian Open is finally on the horizon, folks! And what we see this coming week could give us a good idea of what we might expect at the first Grand Slam of the year -- not only in terms of the action on court, but also for what sporting events could look like in a still very different sort of world.


Yup, those are actual, real life fans in the stadium in Adelaide, watching Serena and Naomi battle it out. And they'll be there too when play starts in Melbourne next Monday -- officials announced this week that as many as 30,000 observers will be allowed at the event each day. That's about half the usual capacity of the Australian Open, but would still mark one of the biggest events since the COVID pandemic began.

In some ways, it makes sense that Australia would be the first site of somewhat normalized play -- already well-isolated from the rest of the world and having implemented some of the stictest lockdown measures, it's had fewer cases of the coronavirus in total than the U.S. has had deaths in just the past month, and less than a thousand fatalities in all. But that's not to say it's entirely in the clear, and some organizational hiccups have led to plenty of questions and consternation.

A spate of athletes -- and others -- who tested positive on arrival in Melbourne, plus anyone on their flights, were forced into a rigid two week quarantine and are only now getting back on actual courts. Some, like Paula Badosa, who got a positive test a week after touching down, may go straight from the hotel room to the match play, with no practice in between -- that's if she's well enough to compete at all. And, of course, there's no telling what might happen if more cases crop up as the main draws get underway.

Meanwhile this week, six separate tournaments will take place on the courts of Melbourne Park -- the ATP Cup, as well as the Grand Ocean Road and Murray River Cups for the men, and the Yarra Valley Classic and Gippsland and Grampians Trophy for the ladies. And it's the first time we'll see some big stars at work in a long time.

Ashleigh Barty, who other than an exhibition in Adelaide hasn't seen match play since the Australian last year, makes her return in a draw that features defending Melbourne champ Sofia Kenin and seven-time winner Serena Williams. And 2019 U.S. Open winner Bianca Andreescu hits the court for the first time since a knee injury took her out of that year's WTA Finals. And on the men's side Nick Kyrgios, who somehow became the voice of reason during the pandemic, is back in action for the Murray River crown.

And as interested as I am to see how these guys perform after such long hiatuses, it'll be even more worth watching whether these events go off without any major hitches. After all, the first priority is of course that everyone stays safe and that we get the virus under control. And hopefully officials have put in place all the steps we need to do that.

And just maybe sometime soon things will truly be back to normal.

December 21, 2020

The 2020 Tennis Spin Awards: Most Anticipated Comebacks

One of the reasons I had so much trouble coming up with the men who'd staged huge comebacks this year was that so many of the top guys were all but missing from tour in 2020 -- a couple gals too. Whether because of injury or due to COVID-related travel restrictions, we know we didn't get a full picture of what the tennis game should have been like this season.

But luckily we're on the verge of a new year and some of the players we saw precious little of last season have promised to make a return. So let's take a look at them.


Will they be in as great a shape as they were the last time we saw them? Well, it stands to reason it may take a few weeks or months before they return to form. But I sure am willing to wait for it.



The Women

The Winner: Bianca Andreescu

It almost feels like the 20-year-old Canadian was a tornado that blew through the tennis world last year. Ranked out of the top hundred at the start of the season, she stormed through draws at the biggest events, making quick work of the likes of Angelique Kerber, GarbiΓ±e Muguruza, Sofia Kenin, and Serena Wiliams, and picking up titles at Indian Wells, Toronto, and the U.S. Open -- the run made only more remarkable by the fact that it was the first time she'd ever played the main draw of that Major. She ended the year as #5.

But it's been over a year since Bianca Andreescu took the court -- a knee injury at her first WTA Finals forced her out of this year's Australian Open. After a couple false starts -- we thought she'd be back in February and then, after the seven month lockdown, hoped she could try to defend in New York -- she called off her season in September, not that there was much season left at that point.

She's been training hard, though, for her return, practicing in Dubai ahead of the now-delayed Australian Open. It'll be interesting to see if she can have the same success she did pre-injury. After all, her rise was so meteoric it was bound to take a couple opponents by surprise, and whether she can keep it going now that she's a known quantitiy -- well, we'll have to see.

Still, I do have faith -- her game seems strong enough to have some staying power. And whoever's on the other side of the net will surely have to bring their best.



Runner-Up: Ashleigh Barty

Maybe I'm a grump, but was I the only one raising an eyebrow at all posts congratulating the 24-year-old for a second straight year-end #1 ranking? After all, Ashleigh Barty only played three events this year, and none since February. While I respect her decision to stay local during these uncertain times, and her point-retention is less problematic than, say, Marketa Vondrousova, who she beat in the French Open final but lost in the first round in 2020 -- the "best-of" scenario really should only come into play if you were prevented from playing the same event -- it certainly feels like there are others who are more deserving of that honor. Still, Barty had a great season in 2019, also picking up trophies in Miami and at the year-end championship, and made a nice run to the Melbourne semis this year. And I'm excited to see if that performance was a fluke or a sign of something more.



The Men

The Winner: Roger Federer

Okay...deep breath...rumors of the great one's imminent retirement are hopefully greatly exagerrated.

Still, it's not often that we see the GOAT 🐐 contender take so much time off in one season. When back injury caused him to end a streak of 65 straight Grand Slam appearances in 2016, we hardly knew what to do with ourselves.

His respite this year seemed particularly well-timed. After undergoing knee surgery in February, he pulled out of Dubai and was planning to sit out Miami, Indian Wells and the French Open, had any of those events happened as originally scheduled. He officially closed the books on a potential return this year after another surgery in June, making this his quietest season in over two decades.

But Roger Federer is nothing if not a journeyman. An unlikely social media star, he was putting in the work even in his downtime and has indicated his intention to play in Melbourne next year -- and scared everyone with his latest hint of a delayed return.

And he's certainly got plenty of motivation to get back on court. After all, as congratulatory as he might be over Rafael Nadal's tying his record 20 Grand Slam titles, I'm sure he wants to add a couple more wins to his résumé before he calls it quits. And at 39 years young he's running out of time to do it.

Of course, we should know better than to write off Roger Federer. And we should expect when he hits the court next year, he's going to bring all the firepower and grace he's always given us.



Runner-Up: Juan Martin Del Potro

I feel like this is my most anticipated comeback EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. But Juan Martin Del Potro isn't giving up yet, and neither am I. The gentle giant has been dealing with one injury after another over the years, from persistent wrist problems -- once requiring four surgeries in one year -- to most recently a second fracture of his patella at Queen's Club in 2019. That might be enough for most people to call it quits, but the Argentine wants to fight on. And he's climbed out of the depths before -- twice in the past he's fallen out of the top hundred and both times made it back to the top ten. He'll be trying to do it a third time. Earlier this month, DelPo underwent a stem cell treatment and said he's got his sights set on playing the Olympics next year -- remember, he's already got two medals at the Games. I don't know if he'll get there, but if there's anyone who can, it's him.

Honorable Mention: Nick Kyrgios

Unlike Roger and DelPo, who spent the year recouping from injury and surgery, the feisty Australian was MIA from the Tour for entirely 2020 reasons. Like Barty above, Nick Kyrgios took the enviable stance of avoiding travel during the pandemic and became the surprising voice of public health in the sport, loudly calling out those who were less than careful during the ill-fated Adria Tour over the summer. And it's a shame we didn't get to see him on court more -- he started the year with a solid win over Stefanos Tsitsipas at the ATP Cup and stunned a soon-to-be-target in his tirades, Karen Khachanov, at the Australian Open. It looked like his ranking was back on the rise again, and hopefully it will be once again.



We're getting to the end of this year's Tennis Spin Awards. Up next: the matches of the year -- the ones that had us on the edge of our seats and screaming like mad at the television.

And to check out all of the winners this year and in years past, click here.

August 5, 2020

If a Tree Falls in the Woods...

...And Rafa's not there to hear it...

By now, we all know that Rafael Nadal won't be making the trip to New York to defend his U.S. Open title. The four time champion in New York cited ongoing concerns over the spreading coronavirus as his reason for missing what would strangely be the second Grand Slam of the year.


View this post on Instagram

After many thoughts I have decided not to play this year’s US Open. The situation is very complicated worldwide, the COVID-19 cases are increasing, it looks like we still don’t have control of it. We know that the reduced tennis calendar is barbaric this year after 4 months stopped with no play, I understand and thank [officials] for the efforts they are putting in to make it happen. We have just seen the announcement of Madrid not being played this year. All my respects to the USTA, the US Open organisers and the ATP for trying to put the event together for the players and the fans around the world through TV. This is a decision I never wanted to take but I have decided to follow my heart this time and for the time being I rather not travel.

A post shared by Rafa Nadal (@rafaelnadal) on



It's not the most shocking news of course -- with travel restrictions still in effect and the French Open expected to start just a few weeks after New York wraps, my money was long on Nadal opting to stay local and play the event that launched his career.

Still, it's certainly the highest profile withdrawal from the event so far -- while Roger Federer has been out with injury (albeit, a recent surprise visit to Italy might belie that excuse) and Stan Wawrinka is mysteriously absent from the official entry list, Ashleigh Barty and Nick Kyrgios have taken the same COVID-centric stance as Rafa. 

The potential holes in the men's draw don't stop there -- Grigor Dimitrov, the Typhoid Mary of sorts at the Adria Tour, is still recovering from his bout with coronavirus (I'm not even going to go into how concerning it is that a professional athlete isn't bouncing back so easily). And there's even some speculation that Novak Djokovic, who's entered in the singles and doubles draws for "Cincy", may also pull out (though, let's be honest, how likely do we really think that is?).

So far the women's side is a little more in tact -- though Simona Halep raised some eyebrows with her sudden withdrawal from Palermo, she is currently slated to play in New York, making Barty the only top-tenner not on the list. 

But in all, five of the top twenty men are currently missing from the roster for New York for a variety of reasons -- and it will be the first Major without both Nadal and Federer since 1999 (!!) -- which begs the question: what does that mean for the rest of the field -- and, maybe more importantly, what does it say about the eventual winner?

Obviously, the hands-down favorite of the pack is Djokovic, who'd be going for his eighteenth Grand Slam title, putting him just one behind Rafa. In fact, there are only two other previous Major winners in the field: Marin Cilic, whose lone big trophy came on these courts back in 2014, and Andy Murray, who's said he's willing to take the risk of returning to the scene of his breakthrough after so much injury and time off (I'm not sure I agree with the logic, but Murray has been one of the voices of reason on many issues this summer, so I'll hold my breath). 

The young guard, though, from three-time Slam finalist Dominic Thiem and last year's New York runner-up Daniil Medvedev, to Stefanos Tsitsipas and much-maligned Alexander Zverev, are chomping at the bit to take over. Of that group, Medvedev is really the only one who's kept a low profile this summer, and whether their on-court time lights a fire under them or provides a distraction -- well, I guess we'll see. 

On the other hand, if the limited evidence we have of match play the past few weeks is any indication, after a couple months off, there's a lot of opportunity for players who you don't expect to make a name for themselves. Nineteen-year-old Brandon Nakashima, for one, turned out to be the standout in World Team Tennis -- he might not be ready for the title yet, but he certainly could cause some damage. 

At the end of the day, though, it's going to be a weird tournament, and I'm not sure anyone will know what to make of the results. It's not just the lack of Roger and Rafa -- players (mostly Novak) have won Majors without facing either one of the greats -- or the bizarre, fanless, teamless circumstances -- not to mention the lack of practice, the lack of qualies, etc. The winners' prize money will be cut by more than 20 percent from last year, but the $3 million paycheck is nothing to scoff at. 

Whatever the case, it feels like this year's U.S. Open will be the start of a new generation in tennis -- whether it's a different look and feel to the game we all love, or a fresh slate of champions taking over the reins, things are going to be a lot different on the other side. 

And the sound they create will set the tone for a while to come.

January 18, 2020

Australian Open 2020: Predicting the Final Four

Well here we are, on the eve of the first Grand Slam of the decade and there's already so much to talk about.

Now I'm well aware there's a lot going on the outside* the Australian Open, and that it could have a substantial impact on what happens inside Melbourne Park -- we saw that already in the qualifying rounds. But I can't well predict how these external issues will impact the draws, so I'm going to strictly stick to the sport's tangibles. And this year, like I did a long time ago, I'm going to start off by trying to sift through the potential match-ups and pick the men and women I think will still be standing in the semifinals. And I'll introduce my own little "Confidence Meter" as a gauge of how likely I think the outcome is:

Basically a shot in the dark! →
← Book your ticket!

After all, you can basically guarantee that things won't go according to the seedings -- last year we saw upstarts like Amanda Anisimova and Matteo Berrettini and veteran Barbora Strycova all make it out of Slam quarters, and there were plenty others to do the same in seasons past. For some of these guys, deep runs will be just one-offs, and we may never hear much from them again, at least not on court -- I'm looking at you Anna Kournikova -- but for others it could be the start of something big.

But whoever makes it that far -- whether favorite or Cinderella -- you can bet they'll be in the spotlight for a good part of the new year. So here's hoping they can back up what they bring Down Under.

THE WOMEN
THE MEN



WOMEN'S DRAW

First Quarter

Ashleigh Barty headlines this section of the draw as the top-ranked player and the top seed, not to mention the hometown favorite. But despite her unassailable breakthrough in 2019, which included not just the Miami and French Open titles, but the year end championship as well, I can't help but feel she's one of the more vulnerable #1s we've seen in a while. After all she started her year with a loss to qualifier Jennifer Brady in Brisbane, and even in her title run in Adelaide this past week, was tested in most rounds. She has a decent, Serena-less quarter, but there are still some obstacles there.

Of course there's Petra Kvitova, the second best seed in the section, who took this past week off after a semi showing in Brisbane. Madison Keys, too, could meet Barty in the quarters. But the trouble may start even earlier. Barty's first opponent is Lesia Tsurenko, a quarterfinalist at the 2018 U.S. Open -- she's been a little quiet since then, off court since last year's Citi Open, and has fallen out of the top hundred, but she's certainly capable of surprises. There's also Elena Rybakina, fresh off a title in Hobart and a runner-up finish in Shenzhen -- a potential third round opponent. And Shenzhen title winner Ekaterina Alexandrova is also running a hot streak right now -- she ended 2019 with a title in Limoges and went straight on to the trophy in China -- I imagine she'd be loathe to let her streak end early. I also like Greece's Maria Sakkari, who gave Naomi Osaka a run for her money in Brisbane.

Then again, many of these players have been pretty busy in the weeks leading up to Melbourne and could be a bit tired -- given the conditions, you have to wonder how long they can keep going without a pause. They could also all eliminate each other and clear the road for the eventual survivor, and perhaps that opens the door for some others.

Take Julia Goerges, for example. She's just out of seeding territory and, though she can be up and down -- she made the Wimbledon semis in 2018 and then lost in the first round of two Majors last year -- she can have moments of brilliance. She could meet a strong Allison Riske in the third round, which won't be an easy mountain to scale, but gaining some confidence early could work wonders.

My Semifinalist Pick:Julia Goerges
Confidence Meter:If she's ever had a shot...

Second Quarter

Karolina Pliskova claims the top seed in this section of the draw, and she's coming off her second straight title in Brisbane. Last year she rode that win to a semifinal showing in Melbourne, and she could very well do it again, but she'll be tested right from the get-go. Her first round opponent is barely unseeded Kristina Mladenovic, a former doubles champion here and a two-time Major singles quarterfinalist. Pliskova's also got a potential third round meeting with surprise Auckland finalist Jessica Pegula. And while she finally had a decent showing at the Majors last year, she's never been particularly consistent at these events.

Meanwhile, on the other end of this quarter, fifth seeded Elina Svitolina lost her only match so far this year pretty handily, but she could easily rebound now. She's, after all, a two-time defending quarterfinalist here and made the semis at last year's U.S. Open. She also reached the final at the 2019 year end championships with wins over Pliskova and Simona Halep. She could face an early challenge from unseeded GarbiΓ±e Muguruza, who pulled out of Hobart with a viral illness this week. There's also young star Amanda Anisimova, who reached the semis last week in Auckland.

There are a couple other potential spoilers here, and I would really like to see a low seed break through. But for now, I think it's one of the top seeds that gets through.

My Semifinalist Pick:Elina Svitolina
Confidence Meter:It'll be tough, but I'm hopeful!

Third Quarter

Defending champion Naomi Osaka brings a #3 seed to the Australian Open this year, and obviously the pressure is on to defend those points. But she didn't get the greatest draw in which to do that -- she was the lucky one to get Serena Williams in her quarter. Encouragingly, she's kept up her pace since that breakout in 2018, ending out last year with titles in Osaka (appropriately) and Beijing, so she absolutely can't be counted out.

But of course, Serena is going after Major #24 with history in her sights. After ending a three-year title drought in Auckland, she's arguably shaken that monkey off her back (if there ever was one there...) and could be primed to roll. She opens against talented teen Anastasia Potapova, who gave Coco Gauff a tough time in their U.S. Open first round last year, but she should be an easy win for Williams.

Speaking of Coco, the other talented teen with a slightly higher profile -- at least in the States -- makes her Australian Open debut with another first round against Venus Williams, the more-than-twice-her-age legend she beat last year at Wimbledon. She's still the on-paper underdog in this match, but the gap is much narrower these days, and she's got a lot more experience under her belt now. Whatever the outcome, the winner could face Osaka in the third round.

Also in this quarter is 2018 champion Caroline Wozniacki, who's saying goodbye to the Tour once her run here ends. We've seen pending retirement inspire players before, and it may have helped her to the semis in Auckland, after all. But she's got a tough section too, with U.S. Open standout Kristie Ahn in the first round and potentially Adelaide runner-up Dayana Yastremska in the second. The crowd will be rooting for her, but I expect she'll be stopped by Serena at the start of the second week.

My Semifinalist Pick:Serena Williams
Confidence Meter:She's on a roll, man, and hungry!

Fourth Quarter

This may be one of the more wide-open sections of the draw. On-paper favorite Simona Halep, who lost to an on-the-mend Aryna Sabalenka this week in Adelaide, kicks off her campaign against Brisbane giant-killer Jennifer Brady, who made the quarters as a qualifier. Halep, a two-time Major titleist -- she shocked Serena last year for the Wimbledon title -- can also be spotty at Majors, though, so the early test may not be welcome. And on the other end of things, you've got Belinda Bencic, who got bumped up a seed thanks to Bianca Andreescu's withdrawal from the event. She's sitting at a career-high ranking, but can also be up-and-down in her play -- she made the U.S. Open semis last year, but this season lost her opener in Brisbane and was upset in the Adelaide quarters by Danielle Collins, who's also in this section.

And let's talk about Collins -- the twenty-six year old, twenty-sixth seed has had a solid start to the year, notching wins not only over Bencic, but Elina Svitolina and Sofia Kenin too. She also was the unexpected semifinalist here last year, her first breakthrough at the Slams -- she hadn't won a match at one before that. She'll have a little more pressure to defend points, though, which could weigh on her in later rounds. If not for that, I may have chosen her as my Cinderella here.

But there are also a couple high profile early rounds to watch in this section. Former champion Maria Sharapova, who lost her first round in Brisbane to Brady and is ranked all the way down at #145 in the world, got a wildcard to the Open and in return was gifted a first round against Donna Vekic. It's certainly a winnable match for her, but not one she can be assumed to win. And then there's Heather Watson, on the comeback trail. She starts off against a similarly strong Kristyna Pliskova, the #2's twin, and could set up a second round rematch against Elise Mertens, who she beat this week on the way to the Hobart semis. But ultimately, I'm not sure any of these ladies will keep up their streaks into the final four.

Who could be interesting, though, is Karolina Muchova, who after qualifying for the event last year made the quarters at Wimbledon and gave Serena Williams a tough time in her U.S. Open third round. She's now the twentieth seed, and starts off against an always tricky Kirsten Flipkens. But given her draw, she might just be the spoiler.

My Semifinalist Pick:Karolina Muchova
Confidence Meter:Why the hell not?



MEN'S DRAW

First Quarter

Moving on to the men's draw, Rafael Nadal takes the top seed and, while he may not be considered a favorite for the title -- he's only got that one win here from waaaay back in 2009 -- he's certainly capable of doing some damage. He has made the final four other times, including last year, and he's become a real force on hard courts. He's also had some time to recover since that grueling ATP Cup schedule, so hopefully he'll at least be in good physical shape.

My big concern for him, though, is Nick Kyrgios, who despite my concerns has been pretty spot on this year. There's no love lost between him and Rafa, though, and that could be on full display if they do meet in the fourth round. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw an upset.

The bottom part of this quarter also has a lot of opportunity. While two-time French Open finalist Dominic Thiem is the headliner, he had some mixed results at the ATP Cup, losing to both Borna Coric and Hubert Hurkacz. It does feel like we could get a breakout from Felix Auger-Aliassime -- the teenager from Canada has never played a main draw here before and actually had a surprisingly dismal showing at the ATP Cup. But he had a solid run in Miami last year as a qualifier, and lived up to expectations in an Adelaide draw this week that saw more than its fair share of upsets.

Still, you have to believe this quarter will be decided in the top half, and that could mean our best matches come early.

My Semifinalist Pick:Nick Kyrgios
Confidence Meter:This pains me, but there it is...

Second Quarter

This quarter may be the easiest to call. Novak Djokovic is the defending men's champion (and seven-time titleist) and arrives on the heels of six match wins at the ATP Cup, including ones over Nadal and Daniil Medvedev. Plus he smartly sat out last week's event in Adelaide, so he should be well rested when he hits the courts in Melbourne. Of course, he's had some early exits here -- notably a stunning second round defeat by Denis Istomin in 2017 -- but he's probably one of the surest bets in the field.

It doesn't mean there won't be drama, though. Roberto Bautista Agut was the unexpected standout for the Spanish team at the ATP Cup, winning all six of his singles matches, including one over Nick Kyrgios. He was a quarterfinalist here last year, and with his biggest on-paper challenger in the early being a potential fourth round against a recently spotty Stefanos Tsitsipas, he could make it back there. Spoilers for him, though, could be young Corentin Moutet, who stunned Stan Wawrinka on the way to the Doha final and faces unseeded Marin Cilic in his opener, or Benoit Paire, who's fresh off a final run in Auckland.

There's also Diego Schwartzman, who surprised me with his performance against Rafael Nadal at last year's U.S. Open. He kicks off against Adelaide's surprise runner-up Lloyd Harris, who made the final there as a qualifier. I'd like to see the Argentine make a deep run here and see no reason he can't at least give Djokovic a bit of a challenge.

My Semifinalist Pick:Novak Djokovic
Confidence Meter:You just gotta go with the odds here

Third Quarter

Djokovic isn't the only one who knows how to win here, of course -- Roger Federer has six trophies himself and has only not made the semis twice since 2004. Of course, one of those early losses came last year, when he was ousted in four (tiebreak) sets to then-rising star Stefanos Tsitsipas, who he lost to again at the year end championships. Unlike many of the top seeds in Melbourne, we haven't seen Fed in action yet this decade. That's not necessarily strange -- he hasn't played a lead up event to the Australian Open since 2016 and won the thing twice since -- but it could mean he's less accustomed to the extenuating circumstances this year.

He's also got an interesting draw. He's got a first round against American Steve Johnson, who if nothing else, is certainly capable of pushing the great to five sets. More interesting, though, would be a potential third round against Ugo Humbert, who won his first career title in Auckland this week, or a fourth against Grigor Dimitrov, who finally got that elusive "W" over the master at the 2019 U.S. Open and played solid ball to start the year at the ATP Cup.

The other high seed in this section is another New York Cinderella, eighth-ranked Matteo Berrettini, whose favored status I wonder about. While he has what should be some easy early rounds, he could be an opportunity for Borna Coric to stand out -- the one-time Croatian wunderkind hasn't quite lived up to his potential yet, but I continue to root for it. If he can take care of a struggling Sam Querrey in his opener, he could be the breakout here.

It's also worth watching young Denis Shapovalov. The twenty-year-old Canadian did well at ATP Cup, beating both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev, and though he lost in the Auckland quarters to Humbert, he could surprise us this fortnight. At the very least, here's hoping he puts together enough wins to keep it interesting.

My Semifinalist Pick:Roger Federer
Confidence Meter:Sure, but this does feel a little long in the tooth...

Fourth Quarter

Okay this section could get interesting. Daniil Medvedev's performance at the ATP Cup helped bump him up a seed for the Australian Open so he's the headliner, and you have to think he'll be as ruthless in his early rounds as he was through the end of last year. The twenty-three year old Russian was more than impressive in his first Slam final in New York and bookended that run with titles in Cincinnati, St. Petersburg, and Shanghai. While he (somewhat surprisingly) lost all his matches at the year-end championships, he recovered for a solid run at the ATP Cup. His opening round against Frances Tiafoe breaks my heart a little, but he should make it through the first week untested.

Meanwhile Alexander Zverev will need to step up to the plate. The seventh seed is winless so far this year and had some surprising losses at the end of last. He has a potential fourth round against Andrey Rublev, seeded only seventeenth but moving higher after titles in Doha and Adelaide already in 2020. I'm always worried about exhaustion playing a factor in runs like that, but the Russian will be eager to keep his win streak alive.

A potential spoiler here -- as much as a former champion can be a spoiler -- is fifteenth seed Stan Wawrinka, who may have had a surprising loss to Corentin Moutet in Doha but is otherwise well on the comeback trail. In the second round, he could face veteran Andreas Seppi or young Miomir Kecmanovic, who beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the start of the year, but you have to like his chances to give some of the favorites a run for the money.

All said and done, though, Medvedev has future Major champion written all over him, and it feels like he's going to make some strides to get there soon.

My Semifinalist Pick:Daniil Medvedev
Confidence Meter:I just don't see a lot of early challenges...



Well there you have it. My first preview piece in years. I'm sure I'm out of practice and may only get one or two of these picks even close to correct. Whatever the case though, I hope we're in for an exciting two weeks of play. And let's all stay safe out there.


* If you'd like to help in the relief efforts from the bushfires that have ravaged Australia's wildlife over the past several weeks, please visit the Red Cross website or the multitude of other nonprofits lending aid to the region. Here's a good list of options.

January 12, 2020

A Taste of What's to Come?

Well we wrapped up the action at the first-ever ATP Cup overnight, and week-plus of play was not without its fair share of upsets, standouts, and drama -- both on and off the court. And while it was ultimately Serbia that came away with the title, beating Spain Sunday when Novak Djokovic, who'd already downed Rafael Nadal in their singles rubber, joined countryman Dusan Lajovic for a doubles win to claim the match. But it was the performance of a couple others this week that really drew my attention and may set the stage of what we'll see at the Australian Open.


Let's start with the good. I have to say I was impressed by the showing from firebrand Nick Kyrgios, who not only won his first three singles matches -- including one over world #6 Stefanos Tsitsipas -- and scored a dramatic doubles victory with Alex De Minaur in the quarters, but he kicked off the slew of pledges to donate to help relieve the Australian brushfires. The only loss he suffered this week came at the hands of Roberto Bautista Agut who, you may be surprised to realize was the only Spanish singles player to go undefeated this week -- Rafa lost to not only Djokovic in the final, but to David Goffin in the quarters. RBA who kicked off the year at a career high #9 in the world certainly did his part to show he's deserving of the ranking, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him climb even higher still.

Of course not everyone excelled this week. Daniil Medvedev may have helped Russia get as far as the semis, winning his first four matches during the event, but lost his cool even in victory against Diego Schwartzman in the quarters. After a tight first set, which he won, he got a warning for an exchange with the Argentine, and when apparently seeking clarity on what happened, banged his racket against the umpire's chair -- twice. He recovered to pull off the win and ultimately seemed accepting of the penalty, but it still set the wrong tone for his game. And then there's Tsitsipas, who not only lost to Krygios, but also fell in a tight two-setter to twenty-year-old Canadian Shapovalov. It's an unfortunate start for someone who ended last year on the high of a ATP Championship.

But things were really dour for a couple of top players who went winless in Australia. First there's former world #3 Alexander Zverev, who only won one set in his three matches down under. It was only thanks to compatriot Jan-Lennard Struff's win over Greece's Michail Pervolarakis that Germany won any of its ties. Even more disappointing was John Isner's 0-3 record during the event. He, too, only won one set, but his was against world #53, Norway's Casper Ruud, a seemingly much less formidable opponent on paper, and he still lost the match. The U.S. was blanked in its showing at the ATP, finishing dead last in its group.

As for the tournament itself, there were certainly a few things left to be desired. On the positive side, the event drew more than a little bit of star power, with fifteen of the top twenty players taking part. But the format also drew some complaints. Like in traditional Davis Cup -- I admittedly haven't yet figured out the new format -- country teams played round robins in different locations, three cities across Australia. But like current Davis Cup, all the action was boiled down to a short period, in this case a little more than a week, with the qualifying teams coming from Brisbane and Perth to Sydney for the quarterfinals. That meant not a lot of time to adjust to different weather and different time zones -- Nadal and Medvedev both voiced their frustration after those losses and tantrums. As an indication of the toll the event took on players, both Djokovic and Medvedev pulled out of tournaments this week to rest up for Melbourne.

The Grand Slam there, you surely know, is just a week away, and the ATP Cup certainly gave us some ideas for who might be standouts -- and possibly who could disappoint. Whatever the case, you can be sure the action won't go entirely according to plan. And I can't wait to see it all!

December 30, 2019

2020 Vision: Step Up or Sit Down

With just a couple days left to go in the decade, we're at installment #4 of my story lines to watch in 2020.

Now as I've mentioned, there are plenty of new faces on the scene since I last posted regularly, and I've missed the rise and fall of a lot of players -- what happened to Sara Errani, and how did Jack Sock qualify for the year-end finals in 2017?! But there are some players who still seem to be right where I left them three-plus years ago -- hitting the scene with a ton of promise, always among the contenders, but never quite closing the deal. And with careers that started long ago, it feels like it's about time we started to see bigger things from them, lest they kind of just muddle along among the crowd for a long time to come.

Let's start with Caroline Garcia, who blasted onto the women's tour in 2011, nearly kicking Maria Sharapova out of Roland Garros in the first round. She climbed as high as #4 in the world last year, when she was defending big points from titles in Wuhan and Beijing. But these days she's back in the mid-forties, lower even than the double-digit ranks she's occupied pretty solidly for the last few years, and she hasn't beaten a top-ten player this season. Now 26 years old, she's had more than enough time to find her legs on court, yet despite that early promise she's only made it past the fourth round of a Major once in 31 tries. It sure feels like if she's going to make a move, she better get to it soon.

Grigor Dimitrov, meanwhile, had been a more consistent staple in the top ranks of the sport over the past few years, but hasn't quite lived up to the hype we all had at the start of his career. Long ago referred to as Baby Fed, the Bulgarian no doubt has the talent to hit with the best in the field -- he climbed to #3 in the world and has won nearly 30 percent of his match-ups against his fellow elite. But he's also had a couple of dry spells, going two and a half years without a title after taking the crown at Queen's Club in 2014 and again for the last two years, since he beat out a frankly unintimidating draw for the 2017 year-end championship (see above note about Jack Sock). Before this past U.S. Open, Dimitrov had fallen to #78 in the world, his lowest rank since 2012, but then stunned Roger Federer to reach his first ever semi in New York. He's now back in seeding territory for Melbourne, but he's clearly no longer a baby by any stretch -- at the same age (28) Roger had already passed Pete Sampras for total Major titles. So if he's going to live up to the moniker, he's running out of time.

Then there's Nick Kyrgios. I mean, where do I even begin. Clearly full of innate talent, the twenty-four year old far outplays his rank almost every time he steps on court. He's beaten more top-ten players than he's lost to this year, including Rafael Nadal on his way to a title in Acapulco, and he grabbed a set from Federer at the Laver Cup. But that attitude, man. He was fined $138,000 for his meltdown in Cincinnati and was handed a 16-month suspension. He's verbally assaulted his opponents, their girlfriends, the crowds, the officials, and openly voiced his distaste for the sport. And for those reasons I, and a lot of others out there, have a hard time rooting for him. To some extent, that fuels him. But he actually has fewer trophies than I thought he'd amass by this point in his career, and he hasn't gotten past the quarters of a Grand Slam since 2015. And at some point, even the best bad boys have a breakthrough. So it feels like it's about time Kyrgios had his -- if not, then what's the point?

Lastly I have to bring up the struggle of world #2 Karolina Pliskova. Of course, I understand the irony of saying someone ranked so highly, so consistently -- she's been in the top ten consistently for more than three years and has won a title or more every year since 2013, four this past season alone. Still, she always seems to struggle on the big stages. She's only made one Major final and two other semis, often getting upset several rounds before her seeding suggests she should. She also has only one Masters-equivalent title under her belt -- a win in Cincinnati in 2016, right before that solid U.S. Open run, where she beat Serena Williams in the semis. And she can be spotty -- she has losses this year to players you may not have heard of: Kateryna Kozlova, ranked 85th at the time, Karolina Muchova, 68th, and even her twin sister Kristyna, all the way down at #112. At the same time, she's had some really impressive wins -- she repeated against Serena at the Australian Open this year, proving that win in New York was no fluke. I'd just like to see her perform more reliably when it really matters. After all, with four different women winning the Majors the last three years running, it feels like the opportunity is her's for the taking.


Of course, there's no real time limit for these guys to pull off the big win. Caroline Wozniacki went eight years between her first Grand Slam final loss and that title in Australia last year -- a feat that, coming 13 years after she turned pro, some said might never happen. Still, it would be nice to see them put up some results to justify all the hype around them. And there's never a better time than the present.

Remember to check out the rest of my 2020 Vision and keep coming back for more Tennis Spin all year long! Speaking of Woz, we'll all be watching her farewell tour in January. And there are a couple other good-byes...and comebacks on the radar.

October 1, 2015

Trying to Shake It Off

Tennis is a tough sport -- when you're out on the court by yourself, there's a lot of pressure on individual players to deliver and even the very best can feel the toll. After all Serena Williams announced today she would end her season early, pulling out of next week's China Open and saying she'd skip the season ending championships in Singapore. She mentioned a couple injuries that had been nagging her game this year, but perhaps more tellingly, acknowledged her heart was a little broken after that shocking semifinal loss in New York. And if she needs time to recover, then everybody does.


Of course not everyone had as much riding on their shoulders as Serena did at the U.S. Open, and some might be much more used to notching a loss here and there. But that doesn't make their need to rebound any less important, and this week a couple are hoping they can dust themselves off and get back on track.

At this time last year Marin Cilic was riding high off his first ever Grand Slam title, but he had a tough time reliving that glory in 2015. After a lackluster season for the most part, though, he actually put up an admirable showing in the City, getting all the way to the semis, albeit without having to face anyone in the top fifteen. But he was absolutely drubbed by eventual champion Novak Djokovic in his final four match, winning just three games and not even a third of the total points over the ninety minutes they played. In his first match since that loss this week in Shenzhen, the Croat was tested by Australian John Millman but was able to survive. Next up he'll face little-known Hyeon Chung, who's been climbing up the rankings through the Challengers' Tour and is coming off a title last week in Taiwan. He may be a tougher test for Cilic than the Croat realizes, but if he can get through it, it could put him in a position to end the year on a higher note.

Nick Kyrgios is also looking to regain momentum, though his might have been lost for a different reason. The talented Aussie, who's got wins over Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer under his belt, has made headlines more recently for his behavior rather than his performance. Once ranked twenty-fifth in the world, since that on-court run-in with Stan Wawrinka in Montreal a few months ago, he's fallen out of the top forty, was dropped from the Davis Cup semis tie, and lost three straight matches. He got back on court this week in Kuala Lumpur, though, and has already taken out Santiago Giraldo by retirement and a strong Tatsuma Ito earlier today. In Friday's quarterfinal he'll take on big-serving Ivo Karlovic, who he's beaten in their only previous meeting. But the match will be about more than just the final score -- Kyrgios needs to prove he's about more than just flare and bluster and that he can handle the stress of not only high expectations but of a high profile. And if he can get through these next few matches he might be able to put a rough summer well behind him.

Donna Vekic was unwittingly caught up in the drama that engulfed Kyrgios too, and at a time when the teen was trying to revive her career. With wins over Svetlana Kuznetsova, Dominika Cibulkova and Garbiñe Muguruza last year, she seemed primed to take off, but injury plagued her later in the season and after failing to defend her Kuala Lumpur crown this year, fell well out of the top hundred. Though she did score a nice win over Francesca Schiavone in Baku, she fell in qualifying at both the French and U.S. Opens and struggled too even on the ITF circuit. But this week in Tashkent she seems to have gotten a little spring in her step back -- she came back after dropping the first set to second seed Carina Witthoeft and has survived three deciding sets to make the semis. She'll face off against Evgenia Rodina in the next round, but at an event where no seeds are left in contention, the door may be wide open for the young Croat. And if she can take the opportunity she'll be happy to see her name in the headlines for all the right reasons.

Roberta Vinci certainly knows how a big win can put your name in the spotlight already. The surprise vanquisher of Serena Williams in New York became a household name seemingly out of nowhere, after months middling results on Tour and a drop out of the top forty. But perhaps the win took a little too much out of her -- she fell to compatriot Flavia Pennetta a match later, when even more was on the line. That hiccup doesn't seem to have had a lasting effect, though -- this week in Wuhan, among a field that included seven top ten players, the Italian picked up right where she left off, taking out Seoul champion Irina-Camelia Begu in the second round and earlier today stunning third-seed Petra Kvitova in straight sets. There are still plenty of threats left in the draw, of course, and even the unseeded players like Venus Williams and Anna Schmiedlova pose a risk. Vinci did absolutely dismantle her next opponent Karolina Pliskova the last time they met, dropping just one game to the now-#12 Czech back in 2013, so she could keep her streak going even longer. And after pulling off the biggest win of the year, there's might not be anything she can't do.

August 26, 2015

2015 U.S. Open: Ten to Watch

With just days to go before the start of this year's U.S. Open, we all know that we could be on the verge of making history. Serena Williams has the rare opportunity to complete a calendar year Grand Slam -- an achievement that even she, with all her career accomplishments and honors, has never even had a chance to claim.

But as much as that would mean for the world #1 -- and the sport itself -- there are certainly other story lines to follow in New York. And, more specifically, other players to keep an eye on too. Some have been a little quiet of late and are looking to launch a bit of a comeback, others are hoping to capitalize on a summer during which they were really able to shine.

And while most headlines will likely focus on just a couple of favorites, any one of these guys could make a splash of their own in Flushing Meadows.


The Women


Caroline Wozniacki

Last year's Cinderella made a stunning run to her second Major final while ranked just #11 in the world and rode her success to one of the best comebacks of the year. It's not that she's done badly this season -- she was a runner-up in Auckland and Stuttgart and even picked up a title in Kuala Lumpur, which was enough to keep her in the top five on Tour. Still her summer's been a little less than spectacular -- she squandered her top seed in Stanford, fell in her Toronto opener to eventual champion Belinda Bencic, and lost in Cincinnati to Victoria Azarenka for the fourth time this year. This week she hit the courts among a crowded and talented field in New Haven -- a place where she's had a lot of success in the past. She started out strong, though, dropping just two games to Alison Riske in her opener, and if she can at least gather some momentum, she might just be able to keep her success going in Flushing Meadows.

Jelena Jankovic

JJ is another former top-ranked player who knows what it's like to come in second in New York, but her trip to the final came a long seven years ago and she's had more than a little trouble recapturing that glory. While she managed to stay in the top ten for a few years, even finishing 2013 at #8 in the world, it's been a while since she's been a relevant feature at the Majors -- in the last five years she's only made it to the quarterfinals once and she's fallen in the first round five times, twice this year alone. She's also put together long stretches without any kind of title -- after making a surprise run to the Indian Wells crown in 2010, it took more than three years before she picked up a trophy in Bogota, and since then she only scored a 125K championship in Nanchang last month, without facing a player in the top hundred to do it. Still, with all her struggles, the Serb has shown some signs of her old self this season -- she made it back to the final in the California desert and last week scored her first top ten win of the year, taking out Karolina Pliskova in Cincinnati. She did eventually lose in the semifinals, but her performance may have reminded us of the kind of damage she can do on a hard court if she's at her best.

Sloane Stephens

I don't think I was the only one who wrote off the former Australian Open semifinalist a few months ago -- after her stellar start to the 2013 season, she had a hard time following through. Last year she lost four matches to players ranked in the triple digits and with a 2-4 record to start 2015, she saw her own position fall out of the top forty. But she's been getting her game back together more recently, it seems -- in Indian Wells she scored upsets over Angelique Kerber and Svetlana Kuznetsova, and even took a set of Serena Williams in the fourth round. She rode her momentum to the quarters in Indian Wells later that month and went on to score upsets over Coco Vandeweghe in Strasbourg, Venus Williams at Roland Garros and Carla Suarez Navarro in Eastbourne. It wasn't until the start the summer hardcourt season, though, that she really hit her stride -- unseeded at the Citi Open in Washington, the American took out both Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Sam Stosur to claim her first Tour title without dropping a set. While she fell early in Toronto, she was able to put up a nice fight against Ana Ivanovic in Cincinnati, and might just have re-established herself as a contender on the big stages again.

Anna Schmiedlova

The young Slovakian will celebrate her twentieth birthday on the same day the women's champion is crowned, and while it might be a tall order to ask that she's still around at the end of the fortnight, it might not be so far out of the question. After all, we've seen two first time Major finalists already this year, so why not add Schmiedlova to the mix. The former French Open Girls' runner-up has already made a couple big statements at the Slams -- last year she picked up a couple ITF titles on clay and went on to stun Venus Williams in Paris. This year she's proven herself on the WTA Tour too -- after reaching the final in Rio, she picked up her maiden trophy on the hard courts of Katowice and, for good measure, added another crown in Bucharest. Ranked just outside the top forty to start the month, she still had to qualify for the main draw in Cincinnati, but she rode an upset of former world #2 Aga Radwanska all the way to the quarters and a #32 ranking. While she hasn't yet made it out of the third round at a Major, I wouldn't be surprised if this was her chance to change that.

Margarita Gasparyan

Don't worry, you're not the only one who's never heard of the twenty-year-old. The little-known Russian has spent most of her time on the ITF Tour and hasn't gotten much action at all against the sport's elite. But she has quietly picked up a trio of titles on that circuit and put together a 37-8 record so far this year, climbing from a sub-two hundred ranking to #71 now. She even managed to qualify for both the French Open and Wimbledon, playing the first two Major main draws of her career. Her big break, though, came this summer when she took to the courts of Baku -- a lower-tier tournament which has nevertheless boasted champions from Elina Svitolina to Vera Zvonareva. She opened with a solid win over one-time Grand Slam runner-up Dominika Cibulkova and then took out Karin Knapp, who was fresh off a solid showing in Bad Gastein. In her WTA-level final debut, she was challenged a bit by also-unknown Patricia Maria Tig, but came out on top to claim her maiden Big Girls' trophy which might give her the confidence she needs in the Big Apple. Gasparyan has a little work left to do to make the main draw, though -- the top seed in qualifying tournament, she rolled through her opening round opponent on Tuesday, but still could face plenty of challenges, including one-time New York darling Melanie Oudin. But maybe this time she's finally primed to get that all important win when it counts.


The Men


Marin Cilic

It's not often that the defending champion is as far off the radar as this Croat is, but the man who unexpectedly ran off with his maiden Major title twelve months ago has had a hard time keeping the momentum going. Though he did manage to pick up another title at the end of the year in Moscow, he lost all three of his round robin matches at his first year-end championship and was forced to skip the first Grand Slam of this season with injury. Since he returned to action at Indian Wells he's lost in his opening round four times and racked up a barely break-even 18-13 record. There have been some glimpses of what he's capable of, though -- he reached the quarters at Wimbledon and put up a nice fight in a rematch against Kei Nishikori in the Citi Open semis. Still he's got a lot to lose in his return to New York, and if he's not truly back in form he could potentially fall well down the rankings by the time this fortnight is over. But if he can put together even a decent run -- which we know he can -- he might just be able to set the stage for an even bigger rebound down the road.

Nick Kyrgios

I haven't spent a lot of time writing about the scandal that overtook the young Australian -- and kind of the entire sport -- the last few weeks, and while I have absolutely no desire to get into the details here, I can't help but wonder what it will mean for his performance in New York. The twenty-year-old had been putting together a more-than-impressive season through the start of the summer -- he reached the quarters at his homeland's Major and reached his first career final in Estoril. More impressively, though, he took out 2014 semifinalist Milos Raonic at Wimbledon and two-time champion Roger Federer in Madrid. His early successes got him all the way to a career high #25 ranking in early June, but he's taken a bit of a tumble since then. After grabbing headlines for all the wrong reasons in Montreal, he lost his next match in straight sets to John Isner, and a week later in Cincy, he only managed to take three games off Richard Gasquet in his opening round. He's now fallen out of seeding territory for the U.S. Open, which could make him vulnerable from the get go -- and while he only has third round points at stake in his return to New York, if he's not able to shake off the stink that's been cast over him this month, he might be an easier target this time than he would be under other circumstances.

Alexandr Dolgopolov

It was about this time last year that the Ukrainian star's season began to implode -- after a year in which he'd stunned Rafael Nadal in Indian Wells and took out recently crowned Grand Slam champ Stan Wawrinka in Miami, he'd re-established himself as a legitimate force on Tour. But knee surgery in July kept him out of the draw in New York and off the courts until late September, since when he only won one match the rest of the year. It took a while for him to get his footing back this season -- after failing to defend points during the spring hardcourt sweep he fell to #80 in the world and had to qualify for the Rome Masters event. Things got a little better in the summer though -- he took out four higher ranked players on his way to the semis in Nottingham, and after qualifying again for Cincinnati last week, was two points away from defeating Novak Djokovic for a spot in the final. He may have run out of steam a bit in Winston-Salem though -- still unseeded, despite his post-Ohio boost, Dolgo lost two tiebreaks to young Thanasi Kokkinakis -- but perhaps that will give him the time and rest he needs to make a real push in New York.

Marcos Baghdatis

As much as I always root for the veteran Cypriot, I can hardly believe myself that he's still alive and kicking these days. A finalist at the Australian Open nearly ten years ago, the former world #8 has dealt with one injury after another, falling out of the top hundred several times since hitting his peak. In fact at the start of 2014 he'd gone as low as #155 in the world. But he's nothing if not resilient -- after a second round loss at Wimbledon last year, he picked up a trio of Challengers' titles to end the season and this year pushed Grigor Dimitrov through a long five sets in their Melbourne third round. He continued his momentum with a semi run in Zagreb and even beat David Ferrer in Nottingham. Back in the top fifty again after a trip to the All England Club, he made his way to the final in Atlanta, his first Tour-level championship since 2011. He too had a bit of a hiccup this week in Winston-Salem, losing to qualifier Pierre-Hugues Herbert in his opener, but given how he's pulled his game together this year, there's no reason to believe he won't be able to rebound again.

Denis Kudla

As we Americans wait (and wait) for the next big star to take over the reins from Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi and even Andy Roddick, there have been a couple names that have come up as potential contenders -- John Isner, Sam Querrey, and, what now seems like a long time ago, James Blake. And while a couple of the young guns surely still have an opportunity to make a splash, this year it could be someone way farther down the radar that causes a stir. The twenty-three year old Kudla put up a huge fight against Feliciano Lopez at the Australian Open and then endured a couple more five-set marathons on his way to the fourth round at Wimbledon, the only man from the U.S. to get that far. He kept up his success at the start of the summer, too, qualifying for the main draw in Atlanta and beating compatriot Jack Sock on his way to the semis -- where he, incidentally, took a set off eventual champion Isner. He qualified for Montreal and Cincy too, and managed to climb to a career high ranking of #74 in the world at the start of this week. While he may be a little older than his contemporaries were when they made their first impact in New York, he might just have the experience and maturity now to make a more lasting impression.


Bonus Round

Okay, I know I've been limiting these lists to five men and five women all year long, but with the U.S. Open being the final Major of 2015, this is the last chance players have to make any sort of real statement this season. So I'm expanding the field this one time to include a couple athletes who might not be quite on the radar in New York, but nevertheless could prove to be big spoilers.

Roberta Vinci

The two-time quarterfinalist in the Big Apple has fallen well off the radar in the last several months -- both on the singles circuit and on the doubles Tour, which she and former partner Sara Errani dominated for years. After a disappointing 2014, she began this year barely ranked inside the top fifty and notched surprising losses to players like world #113 Tatjana Maria and #168 Veronica Cepede Royg. Though she made a somewhat surprising run to the final in Nürnberg, she lost four straight matches after that, even going 0-3 during her traditionally strong grass court run. But something seemed to click one the seasons turned -- she took out a strong Daria Gavrilova to make the elite eight in Toronto, and earlier this week as a qualifier in New Haven, trounced former Wimbledon finalist Genie Bouchard in a barely hour-long opening match. Though she'll now face off against three-time champion Caroline Wozniacki, she's certainly shown she still has the capability of pulling off big upsets and could keep proving that for a few more matches to come.

Mardy Fish

Now I realize the veteran American hasn't made as big an impact at the Majors as others, but as the one-time world #7 gets ready for his last U.S. Open run, you can't help but appreciate all he's accomplished. Long a middle-of-the-road player, he had a breakthrough in 2010 -- dropping some thirty pounds, a fact many commentators seemingly could not get over, he soared to new levels in the game, stunning Andy Murray three times in a row, in Miami, Queen's Club, and Cincinnati and racking up a slew of other top-ten wins. He cracked the single digit rankings himself less than a year later, rode his momentum to a quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon and surpassed Andy Roddick as the top-ranked player in the U.S. But just as he was peaking, Fish was dealt an unfortunate blow -- diagnosed with severe anxiety and a heart condition that required surgery, Fish skipped the entire 2014 season and has only played three singles matches since his return at Indian Wells -- winning just one last week in Cincinnati -- but that might not be the worst harbinger. Remember how well a struggling Andy Roddick did after announced his retirement a few years back? Of course, it'll be much tougher for Fish to put together a big run, but with the crowd certainly behind him in the Big Apple, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a little splash.


Well there you go -- ten or so players who may not be super high on the radar this year at the U.S. Open, but nonetheless could stir things up a bit. And while we're all so focused on the favorites, any of these guys could surprise us while our eyes are trained elsewhere.

Of course, with a few days left before the draws are released, who knows yet how challenging any of their roads in New York will be -- but there's no reason one or more of them can't rise to the occasion.

After all, with this being their last big opportunity to make a name for themselves in the 2015 season, expect all of them to put up their biggest fight now.