Comeback Stories

It's been a long year-plus for everyone, and tennis players are no exception. Of course the struggles on court pale in comparison to what's been going on around the world, but it's easy to see that some who were riding high at the end of 2019 have been on shaky footing the last few months.

But some recent performances in Rome suggest things may swinging back in their favor.

Revenge in Rome!@RafaelNadal ends a run of three defeats to Zverev with a 6-3 6-4 victory in the Italian capital.#IBI21 pic.twitter.com/VYEfaXc3xM

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 14, 2021

I'll start with Karolina Pliskova who came into last season as #2 in the world. She'd picked up three titles in 2019 and kicked off the new year with another one in Brisbane, beating Naomi Osaka in the semis. But since then she's been pretty quiet, losing early at all the Slams, getting upset by Jessica Pegula (three times in a row!), Danielle Collins, and even then-world #292 Anastasia Gasanova.

She came to Rome the 9^th seed, and while she's been pretty consistent here -- she won the title in 2019 and made the final last year -- I wasn't putting too much stock in her. But she's been on point so far, beating veterans Anastasija Sevastova and Vera Zvonareva before today coming back from a set down to take out a resurgent Jelena Ostapenko, a former champion at Roland Garros. Back in the semis again, the pressure will be on, but she might just have her confidence back to keep going.

She'll have to get past another comeback kid to do it though. Veteran Petra Martic climbed to a career high of #14 in the world while I wasn't looking, thanks to a solid 2019 season where she won the title in Istanbul, made the semis in Stuttgart and the quarters at the French Open. This year has been a much different story, though -- she's got a 4-8 record, with five of those losses coming in first rounds, and she hadn't gotten a win yet on clay, arguably her best surface.

She's turning things around this week though -- after avenging her Yarra Valley loss to Shelby Rogers in her Rome opener, she took out Kiki Mladenkovic (who'd beaten Belinda Bencic) and Nadia Podoroska (who'd stunned Serena Williams) to set up a quarterfinal against Jessica Pegula (who'd shocked Naomi Osaka). Here too I didn't give her much of a shot -- Pegula may be ranked lower, but she's cleary been having the better year. But Martic demonstrated her edge on these courts, knocking out her opponent in straight sets and earning her the first Premier-level semi of her career. And in a battle with Pliskova, I really don't know who has the advantage.

And finally there's a case of, if not entirely a comeback, then certainly revenge. After all, Rafael Nadal is still #3 in the world and he did pick up a record 12^th title in Barcelona last month. But he's also shown he can be vulnerable on the surface he's dominated for the last sixteen years. He was stunned by Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo and notched a third straight loss to Alexander Zverev in Madrid. And just yesterday he was down a set and a break (plus two match points!) before sealing a win against Denis Shapovalov.

That had me worried when he faced off against Zverev for a second week in a row earlier today. But this time Rafa wrote a different story. The nine-time champion in Rome fought off all eight break points he faced in the second set and secured the win in just under two hours. He'll now face Reilly Opelka in the semis, and while the big serving American has been impressive himself this week, Nadal is 11-0 in this round at this venue. Of course that doesn't guarantee a win by any means, but I'm sure hoping he's found the game he seems to have been struggling with a bit this season.

Wide Open Spaces

We're now at the point in a Grand Slam when, if things had gone exactly according to plan, we'd have gotten rid of all the qualifiers and wildcards, everyone would have beaten an oppenent only if they were ranked lower than them, and we'd be left with a draw that pitted one seed against another.

Of course, things never go exactly as planned, and this year at the French Open, a couple early upsets and literal luck of the draw seem to have created some big swaths of land that could allow some unexpected players to run free.

Let's start with the men, who admittedly have a much narrower path than the women, but who nevertheless have created a couple opportunities. The bottom quarter of the draw may be the most open, with the early exit of Daniil Medvedev and today's stunning loss by my semifinal pick Denis Shapovalov at the hands of world #101 Roberto Carballes Baena. While Hamburg champ Andrey Rublev and sith seed Stefanos Tsitsipas remain real threats here, someone like Marton Fucsovics, who beat Medvedev, might be able to take advantage. He made the fourth round in Australia this year, and with his next match against Thiago Monteiro, he's got a good shot of at least matching that. He'd likely face Rublev a round later, and while their only previous meeting was three years ago when Rublev was a much less formidable foe, it was on clay, and he did win. It did also go five sets, but at the very least this could be a nice fight.

Fewer favorites have survived the second quarter of the men's draw, and while one of those still standing is twelve-time champion Rafael Nadal (who, I'm told, has never lost a match at Roland Garros when seeded second), that doesn't mean all hope is lost for the others. Qualifier Marco Cecchinato stunned the world two years ago when he beat Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals here, and while he's since dropped out of the top hundred, his performance over the last week or so may suggest he's back on track. He opened with a win over Alex de Minaur and then took out Juan Ignacio Londero in four sets. He'll be tested by U.S. Open finalist Alexander Zverev in the next round, of course, but the German had to battle through a four-hour five-setter in the last round and could be taken advantage of.

Things could get even more interesting for the ladies, where a couple sections have opened up wide. Patricia Maria Tig, who'd lost her first round match in four of the five Majors she'd played before Paris -- she lost in the second round of this year's U.S. Open -- quietly won her first career title on the clay of Istanbul while the rest of us had our eyes glued on New York. She hasn't had to do anything spectacular yet -- her last opponent took care of Karolina Muchova and her next one, Palermo titleist, dispatched Elena Rybakina -- but with Sofia Kenin struggling a bit, she may not have to for a few rounds yet.

And then there's 2017 champion Jelena Ostapenko, who before this year had never won a match at the French before or since that title run. She seemed to be getting her form back last week in Strasbourg, though she was broken six times in her quarterfinal match against Nao Hibino, but a decisive straight set win over second seeded Karolina Pliskova today could be what she needs to really get her confidence back. The now twenty-three year old will next face Paula Badosa, who also got the better of 2018 runner-up Sloane Stephens today, and with my very meh pick Petra Martic lurking in this section, I could see either of them surviving a few more matches.

Serena Williams has withdrawn from #RolandGarros with an achilles injury. pic.twitter.com/u6vGa9JCkX

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) September 30, 2020

But perhaps the biggest opening was created in Serena Williams' quarter (actually, I guess, Elina Svitolina's quarter) -- not necessarily because the American was a favorite to win here (as we know this is her worst Slam), but because of all the other craziness that happened there. Yes, the top half of this section is stacked -- the only non-seed there is Caroline Garcia, who is hardly an underdog -- but the bottom half is wide open.

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who first hit my radar with a win over Venus Williams here in 2014 and stunned red-hot Victoria Azarenka yesterday will face Nadia Podoroska who, ranked #131 in the world, had never won a match at a Major before this week, but really got under the skin of Yulia Putintseva in their second round. And U.S. Open feel-good story Tsvetana Pironkova, the immediate beneficiary of Serena's withdrawal, will take on doubles specialist Barbora Krejcikova, who beat Barbora Strycova in the second round. It just seems incredible that one of these long shots is guaranteed a place in the fourth round.

Then again, isn't that what's so great about sport? And in a year like the one we've seen, it's those stories that can really stand out for the good -- whether they're comebacks or breakthroughs, it's great to see new talent shine -- and maybe just give us all something to celebrate.

Roland Garros Rewind (2016 - 2019)

So here we are on what should have been the first day of the 2020 French Open, and instead of watching magic on clay, we're on the verge of what will be the third straight month without professional tour tennis.

There are signs of hope out there, though -- this weekend, a couple ladies are taking the court in the second UTR Pro Series in Florida, and Novak Djokovic recently announced the Adria Tour, which will feature top stars in exhibition matches around the Balkans in late June and early July.

Still, with the WTA and ATP officially on hold until at least mid July, whether Roland Garros will actually kick off on the twice-rescheduled September 20^th as now planned remains to be seen. I clearly can't continue with my original plan of predicting the final four for this event, at least not yet, but I can take this opportunity to look back at the action I missed in Paris the few years since I last wrote about it.

As with my lookback on Indian Wells and Miami, there were a couple things that took me by surprise, some standout performances that slipped my memory -- certainly on the women's side, but even a few on the men's, which has obviously been so dominated by one name over the past decade and a half. There were players that really made a name for themselves at the French, some of whom have lived up to that glory, others who've faded away a bit. But all of them, I'm sure, hold these courts in a special place in their hearts and are eager for the day they can get back to work on them.

The Men

Not surprisingly, the French Open remains Rafael Nadal's to lose. The twelve-time champion has a stunning 93-2 record on these courts and could be one appearance away from hitting the 100-win mark. There have been some bumps in recent years -- we all got a little nervous in 2015, when the Spaniard's game seemed to be flagging a bit, and he lost to Novak Djokovic in the quarters. A year later, a wrist injury not only forced him to pull out of the third round in Paris, but also allowed Nole to complete the task he fell just short of the season before, when he lost to Stan Wawrinka in the final -- winning the title and the career Grand Slam. But Rafa got back to top form in short order and in the last three years, has only lost three sets on his way to the titles.

That said, we know Nadal's reign will eventually come to an end, and we're getting some glimpses of who might be ready and willing to take over. Dominic Thiem has reached the finals at Roland Garros the last two years and has quickly become the second best clay court player on tour right now. He's won ten of his 16 titles on the surface and last year beat Rafa in Barcelona and Djokovic at the French. His performance in Melbourne this year further showed he's capable of capturing the biggest titles, and I expect that sometime in the not so distant future, we'll see him lifting this trophy too.

But there were some other players that lasted late into recent draws at Roland Garros that flew well below my radar. Unseeded Albert Ramos-Viñolas made a solid run to the quarters in 2016 with wins over Milos Raonic and Jack Sock. It was by far his best performance at a Major and followed four straight first round exits in Paris. And Pablo Carreno Busta got as far a year later, but ultimately pulled out in the second set against Nadal with an abdomen injury that also forced him to skip the grass court season. But he rebounded to make the semis in New York and even spent a stint in the top ten.

The real shocker at the French Open over the last few years, though, was a little-known Italian named Marco Cecchinato. Though he picked up his first career title in Budapest as a qualifier in April 2018, he was still ranked just 72^nd in the world when he hit the court in Paris. But he took out in turn Carreno Busta, David Goffin, and against all odds, Novak Djokovic, who at the time was ranked all the way down at #22 after elbow surgery the year before kept him off court for six months. Cecchinato became the lowest ranked player to make the Roland Garros semis since 1999, and he eventually jumped into the top twenty, picking up trophies in Umag and Buenos Aires to boot. But last season didn't go quite so well -- he lost in 21 first rounds, putting together a string of nine straight losses over the summer, and with a 1-7 record to start 2020, he's now down at #113. Of course, he could come out of this lockdown swinging, but something tells me this Cinderella story may have come and gone.

The Women

Things have been a little less straightforward on the women's side of things, where we've seen a different champion in each of the last six years. I was closely watching in 2014 and 2015 when Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams respectively repeated their crowns, but I hadn't realized we were in for a whole new world in the women's game by the time 2016 rolled around.

It started when Garbiñe Muguruza, who'd only won two titles at that point and was ranked fourth in the world, stunned the defending Williams. who'd drubbed her in the previous Wimbledon final, for her first Grand Slam crown. Her career has been up and down since then, winning at the All England Club the next year, then struggling for most of the last before definitively reasserting herself as a force at this year's Australian Open.

Then there was Simona Halep, long held up as the star of the next generation of tennis, she came close but fell short of the biggest titles a couple times before finally breaking the seal -- she very well could have won that title against Sharapova in 2014, lost at the same spot three years later, and came in second again in Australia in 2018, this time to Caroline Wozniacki who won her first and only Major that year in Melbourne. But fourth time was a charm for Halep -- ten years after winning the Juniors title in Paris, the pint-sized Romanian -- meh, she's two inches taller than me -- finally came home a winner, beating Sloane Stephens for the 2018 title. She added a Wimbledon trophy to her collection last year and at #2 in the world seems well in place to add a couple more before all is said and done.

But maybe more significant are the slew of upstarts who've really had their break on the courts of Roland Garros. First there's defending champ Ashleigh Barty, who currently holds the #1 ranking in the world and put together a solid 11-3 record this year before play was called. Still, it remains to be seen whether she'll be more than a one-hit wonder -- the ladies' draw last year was, after all, rife with upsets, and the four semifinalists had an average rank that would barely earn a seed at a Slam. Barty's had big wins since, of coure, claiming the year-end championship for example, but she's also more than fallible and she'll need to fight to reclaim that title. As for the other three who made the semis -- finalist Marketa Vondrousova, Amanda Anisimova, and Johanna Konta -- I've put a lot of faith in their career-making runs, and I'm still waiting for a couple of them to make good on them.

The biggest outlier among the women's titleists, though, is 2017 winner Jelena Ostapenko, who started the event a teenager ranked 47^th in the world and ended it a 20-year-old Grand Slam champion. She'd never won a title before that run, but beat six higher ranked players during it, including former French finalist Sam Stosur, Wozniacki, and Halep in the final. But it's been a rough road since -- the Latvian lost in the first round at the French the last two years, and while she did crack the top ten and reached the Wimbledon semis in 2018, she's had trouble making a big splash. Still, she's young -- 23 next month -- and has a lot of time to perfect her game. I'm not ready to write her off, but sure would love to see her come out of the lockdown with a little more fire in her belly.

Because, of course, we will come out of this, and there's a long list of players who not only want to add themselves to the champions' roll but will be able to do it. And like everyone of you reading this, I can't wait to get started.

Fed Cup Follies

Fed Cup is -- and Davis Cup used to be, though I'm not so familiar with the new format and don't really have enough evidence to say the statement does or does not stand anymore -- always a little strange. With each round often taking place right after the Majors, it often surprises me how many of the sport's top player show up for their countries after a grueling fortnight (though, in many cases, the athletes probably played much less at the Slams than they'd hoped). And maybe it's just because of that timeline that we see such interesting and unexpected results at these events, and this year was no different.

Some of the ties were runaways -- Germany blanked Brazil, winning all three of their singles and their only doubles rubber, and Elise Mertens lived up to her potential to help Belgium advance over Kazakhstan -- but even then there were surprises. Belinda Bencic was stunned by world #185 Leylah Fernandez, but Jil Teichmann was able to pull out the big guns for Switzerland and pull them out against a Bianca Andreescu-less Canada (the defending U.S. Open champ was slated to play doubles, but didn't have to take the court). And two-time Slam winner Naomi Osaka committed fifty errors against upstart Sara Sorribes Tormo, while veteran and soon-to-be-retiree Carla Suarez Navarro was surgical in her two wins, lifting Spain above Japan, 3-1.

But the more interesting results came in the closer ties. Russia was surprisingly challenged by Romania, who was playing without Simona Halep -- while early 2020 standout Ekaterina Alexandrova managed wins in her singles matches, world #38 Veronika Kudermetova was upset in both of her rubbers. Russia eked out the win in doubles in order to advance. The Netherlands, on the other hand, wasn't able to capitalize on the success of their top star -- while world #8 Kiki Bertens was able to win on her own, beating a recently struggling Aryna Sabalenka on day two, the Belorussian doubles specialist was able to rally with partner Aliaksandra Sasnovich to clinch the decider.

Of course, though, all eyes were on the U.S., which brought some serious firepower to their tie: newly-minted Melbourne champion Sofia Kenin, perennial heavyweight Serena Williams, rising star Alison Riske, and everyone's favorite teen Coco Gauff. They were the clear favorites against Latvia and got off to a strong start on Friday with Kenin easing past former world #11 Anastasija Sevastova and Serena eking out a two-tiebreak victory over 2017 French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko (who, by the way hasn't won a single main draw match at Roland Garros outside that breakout year). But things turned around sharply Saturday as both Americans lost their reverse matches, Williams getting stunned by Sevastova in three sets for her first ever Fed Cup singles defeat. But as is so often the case, Kenin had to get right back to work for her third match in two days, teaming up with her Australian Open doubles partner Bethanie Mattek-Sands to decide the win.

Do the results this weekend give a broader picture of the state of these players' games? Maybe. Kenin's played a lot of ball this year, so it makes sense she might be a little exhausted. On the other hand, I'm a little surprised to see Serena's less-than-dominating performance and Osaka's messy match. As for the players who stood out -- Alexandrova's solid results certainly suggest her ranking is only climbing from here, while Bertens can certainly use her wins to shore up her season. We'll get a better idea of where everyone stands in the next few weeks, of course. And hopefully, by the time they're back on court for their countries in a couple month's time, hopefully they'll come out swinging.

Sofia Kenin: Under the Radar and Now on Top

Ladies and gentlemen, we officially have a brand new Grand Slam champion.

As you doubtless know by now, the women contested their Australian Open final Saturday with the unlikeliest of players reaching the final -- Spain's Garbiñe Muguruza, a two-time Major champion and probably the favorite despite being unseeded this fortnight, had trounced Elina Svitolina and Simona Halep on her way to the championship, and fifteenth-ranked Sofia Kenin powered through a quarter that included Serena and Venus Williams, Naomi Osaka, Caroline Wozniacki, and Coco Gauff, and by some weird twist of fate, didn't face another seed until the top one, Ashleigh Barty, in the semis. But after dropping the first set, the American, playing in her first Slam final -- she'd never gotten further than a fourth round before -- was able to find her game and take advantage of every opportunity to score the win and ultimately lift the trophy.

The victory says a lot about the talent and potential of the young Kenin. Her unusual service motion and end-of-game ball spikes notwithstanding, she's a smart counterpuncher, runs down every ball and finds corners when she needs to.

But she wasn't paid much attention to in the early rounds of the tournament -- after her defeat of the much more visible Gauff, her father bemoaned the fact that sometimes the spotlight gets focused less on players who've arguably accomplished more. There's something to be said for that -- nothing against Coco, of course -- the fifteen-year-old has had an amazing six months, with wins over top players and even a trophy to her name. Kenin on the other hand, six years Gauff's senior, amassed three titles last year, albeit at small-ish events -- the highest-ranked player she beat at them was then-#12 Anastasija Sevastova -- and has been quietly scoring a list of Big Game wins at higher-level tourneys -- Serena at the French Open, Barty in Toronto, Osaka in Cincinnati. And until this week, she was a relative unknown outside the tennis world.

But perhaps Kenin was able to thrive exactly because all eyes weren't on her. After all, she was able to keep her head under some trying circumstances Down Under -- the crowd was not rooting for her in her matches against either Gauff or hometown favorite Barty, but she wasn't deterred. And in the final, she twice was able to come back from 0-40 to hold serve and then break her opponent. It's not the kind of fortitude you'd expect to see from someone playing her first Grand Slam final. In fact most who lose the first set in their debuts can't come back to win the trophy -- if I heard the announcers correctly, Kenin became only the second player to do so in some fifty chances -- the other being Jelena Ostapenko, who stunned Halep to capture her first career title at the 2017 French Open just days after she turned 20.

Of course, things are going to be different now -- now that she's a Major champion and will be a top-ten player, Kenin's going to be on everyone's radar. Whether she can do as well in the spotlight as she has out of it -- well, we'll find out soon enough. But something tells me this girl has the goods to be around for a long time. And I can't wait to see what she does next.

The Minor Leagues?

It's always kind of fun in the immediate aftermath of a Grand Slam to see the players who jump right back into action once the pressure is off. Whether they're trying to gain some headway while the very best in the sport take a break, or to make up for missing an opportunity in New York, a couple ladies this week are doing their part to show that, while they may not have been a contender for the title last week, they might just be one the next time around.

Up in Quebec City more than a few players were looking for redemption -- second seed and defending champion Mirjana Lucic had fallen out of the top hundred after her first round exit at the U.S. Open, and Anna Tatishvili -- who stunned Karolina Pliskova in her Big Apple first round -- dropped just as easily a round later. Both are still alive and kicking, but perhaps some others are worth a mention too. Eighteen year old Jelena Ostapenko made it through qualifiers in New York and took a bagel set off Sara Errani in their second round -- she got right back to work this week with an upset of third seed Mona Barthel in her opener. Now ranked just out of the top hundred, she seems ready to make a real play into double-digits soon. And then there's her next opponent Paula Kania who didn't quite make the main draw of the year's last Major. The little-known Pole did get a win over eighth seed An-Sophie Mestach this week, though, and still hasn't dropped a set in Canada. At #150 she's the on-paper underdog in her quarterfinal match, but this might just be the perfect stage for an upset. But perhaps the greatest opportunity lies with young American Louisa Chirico -- the New Jersey teen had a very busy summer, entering every event between Wimbledon and the Open and even notching a win over Alizé Cornet in Washington. She fell to Cinderella Johanna Konta in New York, but could rebound now. She faces Tatishvili today, a woman she lost to earlier this year in Auckland, but perhaps this is her chance to turn things around.

The field in Tokyo is arguably a little more intimidating, but with top seeded Carla Suarez Navarro losing in her first round, the opportunity is just as great. Kateryna Bondarenko, who pulled off that upset, was one of my dark horses for the U.S. Open, but she ran into a feisty Simona Halep in her second round and was sent home earlier than she might have otherwise been -- after all, she's scored other big wins this year, stunning Venus Williams on her way to the Istanbul quarters. Next up for the Ukrainian is one-time New York semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer, who's been languishing in the low double digits for a few years now, and something tells me Bondarenko might be up for the challenge. But there's opportunity too for some of the seeds still standing -- Ajla Tomljanovic, who beat Jelena Jankovic to start the year in Brisbane and made it to the final in Pattaya City, has been a little quiet recently, and lost in three sets to Karin Knapp in her first round in Flushing Meadows. She's been tested a bit in Japan, needing three sets in her opener and a couple tiebreaks to make the quarters, but she seems to have her game back in shape. And her next opponent, third seed Madison Brengle -- who the Croat beat in Strasbourg -- is also trying to rev her season back up. After reaching the final in Hobart as a qualifier and stunning players like Andrea Petkovic in Melbourne and Petra Kvitova in Stuttgart, she's slowed down noticeably, going just 1-10 through the spring and summer. She hasn't faced huge threats yet, but she's only lost seven games this week, which could do a lot for her confidence.

Of course whether these ladies can keep up their performances when the big guns get back on court will be another matter entirely. But these smaller events are as good a chance as any to get their names on the map. And maybe by the time they get bumped up to the big leagues, they'll be able to make an even bigger statement.