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Showing posts with label French Open. Show all posts
Showing posts with label French Open. Show all posts

June 13, 2021

Transcendent

Let it be known that the gods of Roland Garros don't look kindly upon those who take out their king.

Back in 2009, when Rafael Nadal's 31-match win streak was shattered in the fourth round by Robin Soderling, the then-#25 was able to ride his momentum to the championship match, but lost there in straight sets to Roger Federer, allowing the legend to finally capture the career Grand Slam, the first man to do so since Andre Agassi ten years earlier.

In 2015, when a sort of struggling Rafa was ousted in the quarters by Novak Djokovic, his vanquisher was again denied the ultimate prize, this time by Stan Wawrinka. It would take another year, one in which Nadal pulled out of the event before his third round with a wrist injury, for him to complete his own Major sweep.

And today, another six years after Rafa's last loss in Paris, because appaently that's the cycle of these things, the powers that be tried their damnedest against Djokovic again. But this time their efforts weren't quite good enough.


It isn't surprising that Nole seemed to come out of the gates a little sluggish today. His semi against Nadal was widely and appropriately heralded as one of the best clay court matches of all time. The four hour, eleven minute battle featured some of the most brilliant shotmaking we've ever seen with, as one commentator pointed out, both players hitting multiple winners in every point. And while I'm still smarting from the outcome -- and might argue that it was Rafa who pulled the more awesome tricks out of his bag -- ultimately it was Nole who wore down the thirteen-time champion for a spot in the final, and it made sense he'd be a little worn down too.

And on Sunday the gods -- or Stefanos Tsitsipas, appropriately for the analogy, the first Greek to make a Major title match -- did their best to take advantage of that. The fifth seed had put together the best clay court record this season, winning 22 matches to get here and picking up two titles, including his first Masters, along the way. I thought he had a pretty good shot at winning the whole thing before play even got started in Paris, and after he took the first two sets in the final match, hoped he might just be able to pull it off.

But we should all know better than to count Nole out of any match. He converted a break in a long game in the third set and it took the wind out of Tsitsipas' sails in a big way. Frustrated he wasn't able to hold, the 22-year-old was unable to regroup, never earned himself another chance to break, and despite a couple of good gets, failed to recapture the magic of those first few hours. And after a match exactly as long as his semi with Rafa, it was finally Djokovic able to hold the trophy up high.

It takes something ultra special to overcome all the odds and pull off all that Novak did this week -- first to find the brilliance to beat Nadal on these courts and then to find the stamina to come back from two sets down against a supremely talented opponent suggests a strength not of the mortal world. The victory brings him his nineteenth Major trophy, drawing him ever closer to Roger's and Rafa's record twenty -- and with Wimbledon just a few weeks away and a real shot at winning the U.S. Open too, he might just pass them both before the year's over.

It also earns him a second Career Grand Slam -- at least two trophies at each Major. He's the first man in the Open Era to have achieved that feat and joins Rod Laver and Roy Emerson as the only ones to hold that honor. With stats like that it's no wonder so many are eager to have the GOAT 🐐 conversation or that Djokovic has deservedly risen to the top of the contender list. And while it might still be a little to early to lock in that decision, it's clear that Novak is in a league very few will ever reach.

And perhaps one that will ultimately be all his own.
Posted by Kavitha at 5:34 PM 0 comments
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June 12, 2021

From Out of the Blue

Paris has long been considered a place where magic can happen, and that may be no place where that's more evident than on the courts of Roland Garros.

For the last half decade, five ladies have claimed their first Grand Slam titles here, some of them coming fom seemingly out of nowhere to do it. And today, unseeded and relatively unheralded Barbora Krejcikova became the latest one to do it.


It's not that the 25-year-old Czech has been completely off the radar, but until last September almost all of her successes had come on the doubles court. A paired titleist with Katarina Siniakova at the French Open and Wimbledon in 2018, and a runner up in Melbourne this year, she's picked up eight titles in that specialty over the years and reached #1 in the world in those rankings.

And while she remained in triple digits on the singles side of things, it was on these very courts last year that she began her ascent. A win over compatriot -- and fellow doubles standout -- Barbora Strycova in the second round and a resurgent Tsvetana Pironkova in the third got her to her first Major sweet sixteen, which she lost to that event's breakout, Nadia Podoroska. The run, though, helped her climb to #85 in the world and, with a semifinal in Linz and a runner-up finish in Dubai, she's continued to climb. A title in Strasbourg literally the day before play started at the French -- her first ever solo crown -- put her just outside of seeding territory.

And the streak didn't stop there. After dropping her opening set in Paris, she went on to take the next nine, with straight set victories over the likes of fifth seed Elina Svitolina, 2018 runner-up Sloane Stephens, and Parma champ Coco Gauff. She faced match point against Maria Sakkari in the semis, but powered through to reach the final in one of the unlikeliest of performances.

In Saturday's final she faced Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, another player who'd taken her time to reach this level. A three-time Junior Slam titleist, and a runner-up in the French Girls' draw in 2006, she made the quarters in Paris in 2011 but couldn't get out of the third round since. She was just barely seeded for this event, but pulled off wins just as impressive as Krejcikova's, stunning Aryna Sabalenka, one of my favorites for the trophy, Victoria Azarenka, and her Serena-slaying doubles partner Elena Rybakina on the way. It took her a record 52 tries to make her first Major final, and as the relative veteran in the final, seemed in a good position to take home the title.

But Krejcikova had other plans. She ran away with the first set in about half an hour and, though things see-sawed in the second with Pavs able to rebound and force a decider, it was the on-paper underdog able to draw first blood in the third. After what had been a lop-sided start, it was encouraging to see things stay so close at the end, and while the Russian was able to save a couple championship points on her own serve, ultimately Krejcikova was able to serve it out and win the ultimate prize.

That makes it a pretty nice three weeks for someone who'd only ever reached one singles final before this year. And, to further sweeten the pot, she's got a shot at picking up another doubles title with Siniakova tomorrow. She'd be the first person since Mary Pierce in 2000 to go home with both trophies. But win or lose Sunday, she's certainly proven the breadth of her talent over the last few weeks.

And while this win may seem to have come from nowhere, it's exactly that talent that'll help Krejcikova stick around for some time to come.
Posted by Kavitha at 5:34 PM 0 comments
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June 10, 2021

A Striking Imbalance

38-0.

That's how many Grand Slam titles reside with each half of the remaining men's draw at Roland Garros. If that's not enough of an disparity for you, how's this? 56-1: the number of times each side has played a Major final. Or 73-5: how many semis. However you slice it, there is a huge difference in experience between the top and bottom halves of the draws. And while one may be brimming with opportunity, the other won't step aside that easily.


When the draws were released nearly two weeks ago, we were all disappointed to see Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal -- not to mention Roger Federer -- on the same side of the bracket. It seemed like some credit should be given to Rafa's thirteen titles here, even if he had ceded the #2 ranking. I mean, if these two should meet in Paris -- for the eighth time -- shouldn't it be in the final?

And they have, unsurprisingly, played up to form over this fortnight. Djokovic, who claimed a title in his hometown of Belgrade just a day before play started at the French -- had a weird fourth round against young Lorenzo Musetti, dropping the first two sets in tiebreaks before steamrolling through the next two and a half, but was in top form against Matteo Berrettini in yesterday's quarter. Nadal, meanwhile, may have had his 36-set win streak here broken in the quarters here, but he continues to find his best game when it matters and remains undefeated since 2015.

There's a lot at stake in their match tomorrow -- whoever wins will certainly take the advantage into Sunday's final, and a title there has historic implications. For Rafa, still the favorite no matter his ranking, two more wins earns him a record 21 Grand Slam titles, pulling him out of his current tie with Federer and potentially putting him in unreachable territory. But if Novak gets the win -- and he could, he was the last to actually beat Nadal on these courts -- he climbs within one Major of his rivals, and the way he's been playing Down Under, could fast establish himself as leader of the pack.

But does a win tomorrow necessarily guarantee a title at Roland Garros? Chomping at the bit in the bottom half, after all, is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who's been having one of the best clay court seasons out there -- 21 wins on the dirt so far, not to mention titles in Monte Carlo and Lyon, give him arguably a better run even than Rafa this year. He came pretty dang close to beating him in Barcelona, too, so this could be the best chance he's had yet to not only make his first final, but maybe even cause the upset of the century in it.

Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev, who dropped his first two sets in Paris to qualifier Oscar Otte before going on a fifteen-set win streak, came OHSOCLOSE to victory in his first Slam championship last year. He also has a win over Rafa on clay this year, getting the better of him on the way to a Madrid title last month. He's had a relatively easy path in Paris, though, without facing another seeded player yet, so let's see how he does when he's pitted against someone who's been so strong this year, because the winner of tomorrow's first semi will have a huge opportunity come Sunday.

Of course, it's going to be hard for one of the Next Gen to have his breakthrough against the OG. The last person outside of the Big Three to beat one of them during his run to a Major title was Stan Wawrinka all the way back in 2016. And we know these guys only up their games when the stakes are highest.

Still, the scales are going to start tipping in favor of these guys eventually, and if victory comes when the long-time champions are still at their prime, it'll only mean that much more. Because it seems certain that "0" at the top is going to tick up, and the only question is when.
Posted by Kavitha at 6:24 PM 0 comments
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June 7, 2021

Some New Blood

With the quarterfinals for this year's Roland Garros now set, you might notice more than a couple newbies in the mix.

The women's draw, shredded from the start, has just two players remaining who've ever reached the final eight at a Major before, and only one of those still standing is ranked in the top fifteen. And while most of the favorites have survived so far on the men's side, outside Nole and Rafa, even the top seeds have relatively little experience this deep into a fortnight.

And all that might mean the fireworks have only just started.

The Women


We already knew things were going to be interesting on the ladies side of things, which so many withdrawals, upsets, and retirements in the early days, but that just makes the consistent performances we've seen so far that much more impressive. Defending champion Iga Swiatek, somehow the most accomplished of the bunch at just twenty years of age, pulled off a strong win today against eighteen-year-old Marta Kostyuk, who rode her first round upset over former titleist Garbiñe Muguruza all the way to the fourth round in a pretty impressive run. Meanwhile, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the relative veteran of the group -- she's not even thirty yet! -- has made it back to the quarters in Paris for the first time in a decade. But everyone else is charting new territory.

I've already extolled the performance of Elena Rybakina, who rebounded from a sluggish start to the year to pull off the biggest win of her career in the fourth round, dismantling Serena Williams as she went for that still-elusive 24th Grand Slam title. And I've also been a big cheerleader for Paula Badosa -- with her title in Belgrade and a win over 2019 French runner-up Marketa Vondrousova in the last round, she's now riding a nine-match win streak and could be hard to beat. But there's also Maria Sakkari, the highest ranked first-timer, who ousted last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin earlier today. She's had trouble backing up one big win with another, but she'll be trying to change that against Swiatek in the next round

But we can't count out Tamara Zidansek who is having a true coming out party in Paris. About 30 spots off her career high ranking at #85 in the world right now, she's never made it out of the second round of a Major, and though she did manage a nice run to the Bogotá final, I wasn't giving her much of a shot here. But she followed up a first round upset of sixth seed Bianca Andreescu with wins over Serena's Parma slayer Katarina Siniakova and Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea. She's certainly the on-paper underdog, but we should know better than to count her out.

And, of course, there's the match I might be most excited for -- seventeen-year-old Coco Gauff, the youngest woman to reach a Slam quarter in fifteen years -- Nicole Vaidisova, on these courts -- will take on Barbora Krejcikova, whose won a couple of Major doubles titles but has only even entered a handful of singles draws, in a battle of players riding nine-match win streaks. Gauff has a huge opportunity here -- her win over Ons Jabeur helped secure her a spot on the U.S. Olympic Team, while Krejcikova, who followed up an upset of fifth seed Elina Svitolina with a win over a resurgent Sloane Stephens, could get revenge for a doubles loss to Coco in Miami this year. But with a spot in her maiden semi on the line, it's great to see two unexpected superstars really stand out.

The Men


Things went a little more according to plan on the men's side, but that doesn't mean a total lack of drama -- or of fresh faces. Nineteen-year-old Lorenzo Musetti looked experienced well beyond his years when he took the first two sets off Novak Djokovic earlier today before losing steam and retiring in the fifth set, and fellow Italian teen Jannik Sinner got off to a strong start against Rafael Nadal, but the king of clay was able to do what he always does best to pull out the win.

The two favorites will take on two relative newcomers to the later rounds of Slams. Matteo Berrettini, whose ability to deliver I questioned for so long has happily proven me wrong, taking the title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. He got a little lucky with Roger Federer withdrawing before their fourth round match, but that extra rest could help him against a tested Djokovic. And Diego Schwartzman, who's turned around his clay court season in a big way, has yet to drop a set in his first four matches. Whether that gives him a shot at repeating his Rome revolution against Rafa -- well let's just say it's good to see him winning again.

The real surprise for the men has come in the bottom half of the draw, which, with the only Grand Slam titleholder in it eliminated in the first round, seemed to hold a huge opportunity for the next generation's leaders to breakthrough. And they've admittedly done well so far -- my favorite for the final, Stefanos Tsitsipas, is alive and well, dropping just one surprising set so far to John Isner, while Alexander Zverev has thrived after surviving an opening match scare and even Daniil Medvedev has found his footing on clay.

The standout, though, has been 21-year-old Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who's become a bit of a dark horse over the last few months. Outside the top fifty at the start of the year, he beat Berrettini in the second round of Monte Rome and took out Grigor Dimitrov in Rome. Playing just his third main draw in Paris, he stunned Casper Ruud, one of my favorites to go far, in the third round and followed it up with a win over sleeper Federico Delbonis. He's lost both his previous matches to Zverev, but whatever happens in the next round, this could set the stage for a lot more to come in his career.


Maybe we shouldn't be so surprised that so many twists and turns have come out of the French Open. But it's truly encouraging to see so many players breaking new ground over the last ten days. For the women, there's an unprecedented opportunity to claim a first Grand Slam title. For the men, while the odds still lie with the most decorated of the bunch, we're really going to see which next gen star has what it takes to step up.

And there's no better stage than this on which to do it.
Posted by Kavitha at 6:30 PM 0 comments
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June 6, 2021

Quite the Turnaround

The draws this year at Roland Garros have gotten shaken up for a lot of reasons, the most recent of which being the sudden withdrawal of Roger Federer earlier this morning. But as disappointing as that news was, it's honestly not the most shocking -- Fed had long said the goal of his comeback was not the French, but Wimbledon in a few weeks time. So whatever he needs to get ready for the Major where he's reached the final twelve times -- as opposed to the one he's missed four of the past six years -- seems prudent.

But outside of the withdrawals, the upsets, and the retirments, there's been unexpected pockets of strength, where even players who've struggled recently, or on these courts in particular, have pulled out big wins and erased opportunities for those who may have hoped to take advantage.


Perhaps the biggest surprise is the success of world #2 Daniil Medvedev, who has made no secret of the fact that he's no fan of the red clay. He's lost almost two matches for every win he's had on the surface and before this year had never gotten out of the first round at Roland Garros. Facing a barely unseeded Alexander Bublik in his opener, I wasn't giving him much of a shot at changing that, but he got the win and went on to defeat 2015 French Boys' champ Tommy Paul and big-serving Reilly Opelka, who was coming off a semifinal run in Rome. Today, Medvedev got revenge for his Madrid third round loss to clay specialist Cristian Garin, firing off fourteen aces and winning more than 80 percent on his first serve. He's got a much tougher task in the quarters against Monte Carlo champ and Barcelona runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas, but the young Russian may have finally found his footing on the dirt and could use that to his advantage.

Diego Schwartzman, on the other hand, has always thrived on clay but was starting to show some signs of rust this year. After his stunning win over Rafael Nadal in Rome last year and a trip to his first Slam semi in Paris, he should have been in peak form coming into this season, but he hadn't been much of a force on clay in 2021. Though he picked up a title in Buenos Aires -- his biggest test in that run was world #42 Miomir Kecmanovic -- he lost his first rounds in Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, and Lyon. But he's seemed to have recovered his magic a bit in the first week of the French, advancing through his first three rounds without losing a set. For a spot in the quarters he'll face off against Jan-Lennard Struff, a man who beat Andrey Rublev in his opener and wünderkind Carlos Alcaraz yesterday, so his ticket is far from booked. But a win would certainly go a long way in putting his year back on track.

Also finding her groove again in Paris is veteran Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Though she burst onto the scene over a decade ago, beating then #2 Jelena Jankovic and Aga Radwanska in Indian Wells in 2009 and reaching the quarters at the French and U.S. Opens in 2011, she went a long stretch with middling results at the Majors and little success there outside of Australia. She didn't play much on clay before Roland Garros this year, but she started to make a statement in Madrid -- ranked #41 in the world, she upset four top 25 players, including sixth seed Karolina Pliskova and eleventh seed Jen Brady on her way to the semis. And this week in Paris she not only avenged that loss in Spain, taking out one of my favorites for the title, Aryna Sabalenka, but went on to defeat former semifinalist Victoria Azarenka, who had also been putting together quite a comeback the first week.

The upset earned Pavs a quarterfinal date with a woman who is staging her own turnaround in Paris -- one who also happens to be her doubles partner here. Elena Rybakina was one of the young standouts of early 2020, reaching one final after another and barely taking a week off in between. She slowed down a bunch after the shutdown, losing early in New York and Paris, and while she made the quarters to start this season in Abu Dhabi, she didn't win more than one match at any event after that. That's changed in a big way this week, though -- after ending the comeback of Elena Vesnina in the third round, today she pulled off the win of her career, dismantling Serena Williams in straight sets in just over an hour, doubling her on aces (albeit only four to two) and breaking serve five times. It'll be her first Major quarterfinal, her best performance by far, and couldn't have come at a better time, given her slow start to the year.

Of course, there's still a long road to go for any of these players to get the big win in Paris, and their biggest tests still lie in front of them. It'll be a lot to ask any of them to come away with the titles, but their performances so far sure suggest they're ready to take on the challenges.
Posted by Kavitha at 1:38 PM 0 comments
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June 3, 2021

Dropping Like Flies

It's been a dramatic start to the French Open this year, both on and off the court, and day after day it's seems we're hit with one more exit we weren't expecting. And whether it's because of physical or mental form, that's left some gaping holes in the women's draw.

Of course the big news was the withdrawal of Naomi Osaka on Monday -- after the bold decision not to participate in press conferences at the event, she pulled out of Roland Garros and said she was taking a break from competition entirely. The move brought into focus the mental health of athletes in a way that hasn't been done before, and whether or not you agree with the way everything was handled, here's hoping she comes back stronger and fitter in more ways than one.

But it wasn't just Osaka's early departure that rocked the brackets. Petra Kvitova, who ironically injured her ankle on the way to her own first round press conference, had to withdraw on Tuesday, and earlier today top seed Ashleigh Barty, one of two defending champs on the ladies' side, stopped her match short due to a nagging hip problem. Combine that with Simona Halep's pre-tournament bow out and losses by Bianca Andreescu, Karolina Pliskova, Belinda Bencic, and Garbiñe Muguruza and more than half of the WTA's top thirteen are missing from Round 3.


So the question then becomes, of course, who benefits most from all this? The obvious answers are last year's French finalists, Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin, the latter of whom was desperately looking to turn around her year and has done so so far, with wins over 2017 champ Jelena Ostapenko and qualifier Hailey Baptiste. She'll face a challenge from fellow American Jessica Pegula in her third round, though, so any potential comeback could be stopped short soon.

But there are others, too.

Barty's exit makes Elina Svitolina the highest ranked player left in her quarter, and with an easy win over a talented Ann Li today, she's playing at a level that could help her go far. She will face a challenge in her next match though, as Strasbourg champ Barbora Krejcikova is now riding a seven match win streak she'll be loathe to give up. And Coco Gauff, who just reprised her Parma final win over Qiang Wang today, might be breathing easier now that she won't face Barty in the fourth round. She still has to get past Aussie runner-up Jen Brady, who beat her last year in Lexington, but on this surface I'm giving the teen the edge.

A little more under the radar is Sloane Stephens, the 2018 runner-up in Paris, who lost her first four matches to kick off the season. She seems to have gotten her footing back on clay, though, reaching the quarters in Charleston and the semis in Parma. In her early days here, she won an emotional first round against a retiring Carla Suarrez Navarro and earlier today pulled off that big upset over Karolina Pliskova. While Melbourne standout Karolina Muchova will be a much tougher challenge in the next round, despite the fact that she's still ranked lower than the former world #1, I'm encouraged by Stephens' return to form and wouldn't be too surprised by an upset.

In the bottom half of the draw, where things were wide open from the start -- Osaka, after all, may have been seeded second, but she had never gotten past the third round in Paris -- we have some more potential beneficiaries. One surprising one may be Elena Vesnina, who here won her first singles match since giving birth in 2018, dropping just one game in her first round. She was scheduled to face Kvitova yesterday, but instead will meet a struggling Elena Rybakina in the third round tomorrow, a wholly winnable match that could get her to her first ever fourth round at the French.

Less of a long shot to go far, though, is Paula Badosa, the barely-seeded but red-hot Spaniard who's made at least the semis of every clay event she's played this year. She's one of just two seeds left in her quarter -- 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova likely looms in the fourth round -- and while there are some big hitters still left -- Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea, Serena's Parma vanquisher Katerina Siniakova, to name a few -- you have to like her chances to get at least to the semis.

And of course there's Aryna Sabalenka, trying to get past the fourth round at a Major for the inexplicably first time in her career. A final in Stuttgart and a title in Madrid have given her a solid foundation for this clay season. And while she's got potential match-ups against Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams in her future, it seems she is well on course to break the seal and make it to the next level.

So with two rounds in the books, there's certainly a lot of opportunity to make a big statement, and with the stakes so high, you know everyone's eager for it to be them. All that remains to be seen is who is willing and able to step up to the plate.
Posted by Kavitha at 2:01 PM 0 comments
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May 29, 2021

French Open 2021 Preview: Round by Round

It's been just over seven months since we crowned the last king and queen of Roland Garros, and yet, on the eve of the 2021 French Open it somehow feels like it's taken such a long road to get back.

After all, it's been a dramatic clay court season, with surprising upsets, stunning statements, and pretty impressive breakthroughs.

Rafael Nadal has proven he is not invincible on clay. Perennial powerhouse Simona Halep had to withdraw due to a calf injury. And for the first time, possibly in history, we have two defending women's champions back to keep their win streaks here going -- and they've both made pretty good cases for themselves.

As the draws shake out, we have the opportunity to see some fierce match-ups, and the surprises could start coming right at the get go. So here's a look at some of the possibilities and the potential battles that could really make things interesting at Roland Garros this year.

And, as with the last time, I'm essentially resetting the draw after each pairing -- someone who had to be eliminated for one match to take place may show up later in another one. It's only because there have been so many standouts this season that there's no other way to cover it all.

So let's dive right in.
THE WOMEN THE MEN


WOMEN'S DRAW


First Round

Aryna Sabalenka (3) vs. Ana Konjuh (Q): Well this is a tough first round for both players. The heavy favorite Sabalenka is at a career-high ranking and is pretty fresh off picking up the biggest title of her career in Madrid. She also made the final in Stuttgart and, of course, has been putting one of the strongest win streaks out there. But...she has never made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam. Konjuh, meanwhile, made the quarters at the U.S. Open years ago, and after a long recovery from injury is finally back in form. She scored wins over Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek in Miami and successfully pivoted to clay with a final run in Belgrade. Still at #144 in the world -- she was sub-300 in Miami -- she had to fight through qualies to get here, but she could put up quite the fight against someone many consider a potential champion.

Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Last year's runner-up opens her point defense against 2017's recently resurging champion, and I'm not sure I like her chances. Kenin has struggled with injury and form and has only won one match since the Australian Open. Meanwhile, Ostapenko is coming off a quarterfinal showing in Rome. But the young American has a new coach and has shown that she's more than capable of shaking off bad losses. Still, this one is going to be close.

Carla Suarrez Navarro vs. Sloane Stephens: CSN's farewell tour was disrupted first by COVID and then, tragically, by cancer, but she's back for one last hurrah at Roland Garros and all sorts of sentiment is one her side. It's hard to tell what condition she'll be in (though her social profile suggests she's in fighting form), but she'll certainly face a challenger at the outset. Suarrez's first round opponent is the 2018 runner-up in Paris, and while Sloane famously rides a roller coaster in terms of performance, she may be on the upswing -- she made the quarters in both Charleston and Parma, with wins over favorites both times. Still, the Spaniard, twice a quarterfinalist here, has had some career-defining wins over the years, and hopefully has a few more left in her.

Veronika Kudermetova (29) vs Amanda Anisimova: The on-paper favorite has had a strong year, with a run to the final in Abu Dhabi and her maiden title in Charleston. It's bad luck that she'll open her campaign here against 2019's surprise semifinalist. But it's been a tough two years for the young American -- after suffering the death of her father during her breakout year, she kicked off this season with a COVID diagnosis and an ankle injury and she's struggled to gain traction ahead of her return to Paris. Still, at only 19, she's probably got a lot of room to surprise us, and she's beaten much more formidable opponents on these courts before. If she's playing at her best, this one could be a battle.

Second Round

Bianca Andreescu (6) vs. Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Q): The former U.S. Open champ doubled her 2019 win record on clay with her performance in Strasbourg. Unfortunately, that means she still only has two wins on the surface this year. She cut her run short last week to take care of an ab injury, and she'll be tested pretty quickly on the big stage. MCOS, after all, has been racking up wins this season -- the 19-year-old picked up her first title as a wildcard in Bogota, made the semis the next week in Charleston, and picked up in Europe with a run to the semis in Belgrade. That got her into the top hundred -- not soon enough to have her avoid qualifying rounds, but she breezed through those without dropping a set. She's faced Andreescu what feels like years ago, in the final of an ITF event in Oklahoma, and only won one game, but something tells me things will be different this time around.

Serena Williams (7) vs. Arantxa Rus: Rus has had some huge wins on big stages over the years, stunning then-#2 Kim Clijsters at Roland Garros in 2011 and then-#5 Sam Stosur at Wimbledon a year later. But that was a long time ago, and she really never came to much after that. She did upset second seed Jessica Pegula this past week in Strasbourg, though, and came OHSOCLOSE to beating Williams last year in "Cincinnati" too. Could she seal the deal this time? Possibly -- as Serena continues to go for that elusive 24th Major, she's hit one roadblock after another, and she hasn't really found her footing on clay this year. She'll put up a fight, of course, but everyone should know by now that she's far from invincible, and if both these ladies make the second round, Rus certainly has a shot at an upset.

Garbiñe Muguruza (12) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo: I was all aboard the Sorribes bandwagon in the early spring -- the 24-year-old was impressive in her run to a maiden title in Guadalajara and even more impressive in her quarterfinal fight against Bianca Andreescu in Miami. Strangely, for a Spaniard, she's been a little quiet on clay. Her compatriot, meanwhile, was the champion here five years ago and is a far better player than her ranking suggests. It's a tough early round for both, but one that could spark some fireworks.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (32) vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Krejcikova is a decorated doubles star, with a couple Major trophies over the years -- she and Katarina Siniakova won both the French and Wimbledon in 2018 and were runners-up in Melbourne earlier this season. But she's really started gaining traction on the singles scene over the last few months, making the fourth round in Paris last fall and the final in Dubai in March. But Alexandrova is no slouch either -- she beat Simona Halep and Iga Swiatek in the Gippsland draw to start the year -- and I'm perennially shocked to see how "low" her ranking is. These two have met twice already this year, with the seed getting the win at the Australian Open and Krejcikova pulling off the upset this past week on her way to the title in Strasbourg. Given the surface, I wouldn't be surprised to see that outcome play out again.

Third Round

Naomi Osaka (2) vs. Paula Badosa (33): This is where things get interesting. Osaka isn't the best player on clay -- she's never made it out of the third round here, and she lost early in both Madrid and Rome -- and her draw got a whole lot harder on Friday with the withdrawal of 27th seed Alison Riske. That's because it elevated Belgrade champion Paula Badosa into seeding territory, and the red-hot Spaniard already has wins over Ashleigh Barty and Belinda Bencic on clay this year. Badosa had before been in the Sabalenka/Serena quarter, but even as the lowest seed things are looking a lot better for her now, and if she can pull of a win here, it might be hard to stop her until the semis.

Jennifer Brady (13) vs. Coco Gauff (24): Brady may be the more seasoned player here, and she may have some impressively deep showings at the most recent Slams, but this is a whole new court, and Coco's been the one grabbing all the headlines on it. A semifinal run in Rome and not one but two titles in Parma brought her to a career high ranking of #25 in the world, and a couple wins here will certainly drive her even higher. Of course, this match-up is not a sure thing -- Gauff could face Melbourne Cinederella Su-Wei Hsieh in the second round, while Brady may have to get through clay specialist Fiona Ferro herself. But if they both make it, I feel like the edge goes to the younger phenom.

Nadia Podoroska vs. Sorana Cirstea: This potential battle would require a couple upsets early on -- Cirstea opens against 2019 French semifinalist Johanna Konta, while 2020 French semifinalist Podoroska will start her point defense against tenth seed Belinda Bencic. But there's plenty of reason to believe both can pull off the wins. Cirstea, a one-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros -- twelve years ago! -- has her groove back after a title in Istanbul and a second place finish in Strasbourg, while Konta has only scored three match wins this year. And Podoroska, who stunned Serena Williams in Rome, could easily get the better of a recently-spotty Bencic. In any case, I'm excited to see these two face off and can't even begin to pick the favorite.

Fourth Round

Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Karolina Muchova (18): Svitolina is a solid clay court player and has had a lot of success on the courts of Paris, making the quarters three times. But while she's had some decent wins this year -- Petra Kvitova in Miami and Stuttgart, Garbiñe Muguruza in Rome -- she hasn't really had a standout moment in a little while. After all the upsets at the French last year, she was for a brief moment a favorite for the title, but then got crushed> by Nadia Podoroska in the final eight. Muchova, on the other hand, had her coming out party a few months ago, beating Karolina Pliskova and Ashleigh Barty on the way to her first Slam semi in Melbourne. And about a month ago she beat Naomi Osaka en route to the Madrid quarters. She's slated for a rematch with her compatriot, a three-time finalist in Rome, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her make another attempt at a deep run now.

Petra Kvitova (11) vs. Danielle Collins: Collins may only be ranked #50 in the world, but she is no slouch on clay, having reached the quarters last year with wins over Ons Jabeur and Garbiñe Muguruza along the way. She's had some big successes this season too, taking out Karolina Pliskova at the Yarra Valley Classic and Ashleigh Barty in Adelaide. But she had to undergo a pretty harrowing surgery for endometriosis last month and hasn't been seen on court in a while. She says she's playing without pain and more consistently now, though, which could make her an even bigger force than she usually is. While she might have to get through Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams first, she could very well set up a showdown with last year's semifinalist at the end of the first week. Kvitova is one of those consistent favorites, though, and always seems to up her game when you least expect it. I imagine this could be a fun one.

Maria Sakkari (17) vs. Jessica Pegula (28): Sakkari is one of those players I really want to see big things from, and she gets so close to making that happen so often. Last year she pulled off a massive win over Serena in "Cincy", but lost the next round; this year she stunned Naomi Osaka in Miami, and again dropped a match later. Pegula, on the other hand, has had a little more follow through, even when she's a far bigger underdog. After stunning Victoria Azarenka in the first round of the Australian Open this year, she went all the way to the quarters. Then as a qualifier, for some reason, in Doha she made her way to the semis. And while she did lose to Sakkari in Miami, she followed up a win over Osaka in Rome to make the final eight there. Seeded at a Slam for the first time, she might have to make it past last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin first, but if there's one thing we should know about Pegula by now, it's that she's more than capable of pulling off one upset after another.

Petra Martic (22) vs. Shelby Rogers: Not that long ago I wouldn't have given Martic a second glance, but the 2019 quarterfinalist here, coached now by former French champion Francesca Schiavone, seemed invigorated in her run to the semis in Rome. But Rogers has made the quarterfinals in Paris before too, and she'll want to avenge her loss to Martic in the first round in Rome. It won't be easy for either of these two to get the rematch -- Martic is slated to face Garbiñe Muguruza in the third round, while the American could run up against the defending most-recent champ Iga Swiatek even sooner -- but it'll be interesting if they're able to make it.

Quarterfinals

Serena Williams (7) vs. Victoria Azarenka (15): Okay, okay, I know, this one's a long shot. Neither of these ladies has been playing her best recently, Serena getting upset in both Rome and Parma, while a persisent back injury forced Vika to pull out of matches in Melbourne, Doha, and Madrid. But, for old time's sake -- not event that old -- let's just say they're able to return to form again. I mean, remember that match last year in New York? Wouldn't it be fun to see that again? And if anyone can pull off the comeback, it's these two.

Elise Mertens (14) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (Q): Okay, now we're talking about long shots, but hear me out. Mertens has been one of the most under-the-radar but consistent players on tour the last several months, reaching at least the quarters in ten of her last 15 tournaments and picking up a title in Gippsland too. On clay she beat Veronika Kudermetova in Istanbul and Simona Halep in Madrid, so you know she's comfortable on this surface. Schmiedlova, meanwhile, may be far removed from the career-high ranking she hit half a decade ago, but with a win over Azarenka here just last year she's more than capable of an upset or two. Can she, as a qualifier, make it all the way to a quarterfinal? Well she's got some big obstacles in her way, starting with Iga Swiatek in the third round and Garbiñe Muguruza one after that. But what fun would sports be if we didn't get a few surprises?

Semifinals

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Iga Swiatek (8): It doesn't happen very often that you have two simultaneously defending champions at a Major, but as COVID kept Barty from traveling to Paris last fall, Swiatek was able to gloriously take up the mantle in her absense. Their only previous meeting in the fourth round of Madrid was disappointingly straightforward, with the earlier titleist getting the win in straight sets. But while the world #1 has a field-leading 13 wins on clay so far this season, the younger Swiatek stormed back onto our radars with a trophy in Rome and seems primed to make a potential second meeting a little closer -- and possibly raise the bar for how two champions should compete.

Championship

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (3): There is a lot that can happen over the course of the next two weeks, but it seems fitting that the two winningest players this season could face off in another final. They already split their title contests in Stuttgart and Madrid, so why not add Paris to their rivalry? I admit, I've been skeptical about Barty's staying power in the past, but she's really proven she's deserving of that #1 ranking. Sabalenka may have a little more work to do, though -- despite a career-high ranking and a long and impressive win streak, she's never gotten out of the fourth round of a Major. And with a tough first round here she'll be tested off the bat. But in a half that's really wide open, I'd expect something big from her now.


MEN'S DRAW


First Round

Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Alexander Bublik: I'll save the complaints about Medvedev's second seeding for later, but regardless, there's no doubt he's had one of the strongest twelve-month stretches out there. Still, he's not a fan of the clay -- something he's made very clear over the past few months. He's one just one of three matches on the surface the year -- and has a barely better record for his still-young career -- and has never won a round at Roland Garros. It'll be hard to change that against the barely unseeded Bublik, a player I continue to believe is better than his ranking. The Kazakh isn't that much better on dirt, but he did manage to make the quarters in Madrid, with wins over Denis Shapovalov and Aslan Karatsev. Whether he makes a big statement here, I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get at least this upset.

David Goffin (13) vs. Lorenzo Musetti: The seeded Goffin has had a couple of pleasantly surprising results this year -- taking the title in Montpellier and stunning Alexander Zverev in Monte Carlo -- but outside of that, he's been pretty quiet. Nineteen-year-old Musetti, on the other hand, has continued to climb the rankings, making the quarters in Cagliari and the semis in Lyon. I'm kind of calling for the upset here, but what a confidence boost it would be if Goffin could get a win over this up-and-coming/already-arrived star.

Emil Ruusuvuori vs. Mackenzie McDonald (Q): McDonald is still well off his career high ranking, but a fourth round showing in Melbourne and a Challengers title in Nur Sultan have helped boost him a little. He still had to play qualies here, though, but made it through without losing a set. For his efforts, he gets a shot at the 22-year-old Finn whose name I had to learn how to spell after a solid defeat of Alexander Zverev in Miami. It's certainly a winnable match for the young American, but not one he should take for granted. And if he can pass the test, it could help launch him back where he belongs.

Second Round

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Federico Delbonis: Thiem is a two-time finalist here and a fairly-newly-minted Grand Slam champion, but a nagging knee injury has really hampered his effectiveness this year. While he managed a decent run in Madrid, he's been upset more than he's been winning. Delbonis, meanwhile, has been pretty active all spring, playing week in and week out, upsetting Pablo Carreño Busta in Spain, reaching the quarters in Rome, and this past week reaching the semis in Belgrade. He's never had a lot of success at the Majors, only made the third round once at the Australian Open five years ago, but this might be the best chance he's had in a while.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Sebastian Korda: It wouldn't be a Major if we didn't see at least a few popcorn matches right at the start, and this could be one of them. Twenty-year-old Korda has been slashing his ranking all year, reaching the final in Delray, the quarters in Miami, and this past week picking up his first tour-level title in Parma, ousting top seeded Lorenzo Sonego on the way. Tsitsipas, meanwhile, has two clay titles of his own this season, including his first Masters crown in Monte Carlo. The two have a huge opportunity here, in the half of the draw with just one Grand Slam title -- compared to the top half with fifty-nine combined -- and it's a shame that one will have to go home early. But you can be sure they'll both be battling to make sure they're not that one.

Lorenzo Sonego (26) vs. Cameron Norrie: The 26-year-old Italian is another one who's been climbing up the rankings in recent months. Since that miraculous win over Novak Djokovic last year in Vienna, he's gone on to win a title in Cagliari and score wins over Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem in Rome. Norrie notches his own upset of Thiem on his way to the Lyon final and also came in second in Estoril. He has yet to bring home that maiden title, but he's certainly finding his footing on the clay. The winner of this match will have a tough road ahead of him -- Rafael Nadal likely awaits in the third round -- but it certainly will make a case for potentially bigger runs over the year.

Third Round

Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (Q): Here's another potentially explosive early match-up. Rublev has followed up nicely on his breakthrough season, reaching the quarters of his last three Majors, picking up another title in Rotterdam, and absolutely stunning Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Alcaraz's successes have been on a much smaller scale, but a semifinal run in Marbella, a Challengers title in Oerias, and a perfect record in the Roland Garros qualies, gives him a nice winning streak coming into the main event. He'll likely face Munich and Doha champ Nikoloz Basilashvili in the second round, but sparks may really start to fly if he can set up the match with the top-ten Russian -- and it could give us a good taste of what the future of tennis will look like.

Diego Schwartzman (10) vs. Aslan Karatsev (24): This one pains me. After a late-in-his-career breakout, which included a win over Rafael Nadal last year in Rome, Schwartzman's been pretty quiet in 2021, losing his opening round four times. I am somewhat mollified by the fact that he did pick up a title in Buenos Aires and that his losses came against talented players, but it's still not a precedent you like to see. Karatsev, on the other hand, has been virtually unstoppable. Since his Cinderella run in Melbourne, he picked up his first title in Dubai and scored wins over Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and, yes, Diego Schwartzman. I wouldn't be surprised if things go his way again, but I'm hoping the Argentine is able to find his magic again.

Roberto Bautista Agut (11) vs. Kei Nishikori: It's been a long time since we've seen fan-favorite Nishikori at the top of his game, but this could be the best chance he's had in a while to make a statement at a Slam. At his lowest ranking in nearly a decade thanks to yet another battle with injury, he's still able to get the better of his opponents. He beat David Goffin in Dubai, Karen Khachanov in Madrid, and Fabio Fognini in Rome. RBA can't be overlooked though -- he's reached finals in Montpellier and Doha this year, beating Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem at the latter, and the semis in Miami, with a win over Daniil Medvedev there. But clay is weirdly not his best surface, which could crack open the door a bit for the man from Japan.

Jannik Sinner (18) vs. Albert Ramos-Viñolas: Sinner is another one of those youngsters quickly making a habit of beating top-ranked players. A quarterfinalist at the French last year, he won two titles to bridge the seasons and made a play for the big leagues with a run to the final at the Miami Masters. Ramos has been pretty busy himself, quietly amassing 17 wins on clay this season and claiming a title in Estoril to boot. He'll have to get past Gael Monfils in the first round, but with the Frenchman having only won match in the last year-plus, his bigger challenge will likely be against the wünderkind, and that one could be fun to watch.

Reilly Opelka (32) vs. Tommy Paul: It's easy to overlook the Americans on clay -- especially the men -- but these guys have been putting up some nice results over the past few weeks. Big-serving Opelka is coming off a run to the semis in Rome, where he took out Lorenzo Musetti and Aslan Karatsev, and could make a play to become the top-ranked man in the States. Paul is a little further down the rankings, but he pulled off some nice wins this past week in Parma, beating Jiri Vesely and Jan-Lennard Struff on his way to the final four. He's suppsed to face Daniil Medvedev in the second round, but as I've mentioned, that's not a guarantee -- nor is beating Alexander Bublik, to be honest -- but if he makes it, a battle against his countryman would give someone a little bit of bragging rights.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Arthur Cazaux (W): This one might take a little bit of doing, but it's not the craziest of thoughts. ADF has followed up nicely on his strong 2020 season, making the quarters in Monte Carlo and the semis in Estoril. And while likely second round opponent Hubert Hurkacz scored the biggest-yet win of his career in Miami, he's been less impressive on clay, winning just one match so far against world #171 Thomas Fabbiano in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Cazaux is playing his very first Major main draw -- he lost first round qualifying in Paris last year to Aslan Karatsev -- but he has scored wins this year over Sebastian Korda and Adrian Mannarino. And we know how well French wildcards can do at Roland Garros. Cazaux would likely need to get past super-surging Casper Ruud -- more on that later -- to set up this one, but stranger things have happened.

Fourth Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Marco Cecchinato: During those years I'd stopped writing and paying attention to every twist and turn in the tennis world, something very strange happened -- Novak Djokovic stopped winning Majors! After locking in the Career Grand Slam at the French in 2016, he went on a two-plus year stretch without earning another big title. And one of the biggest surprises during that run came at the hands of Marco Cecchinato, who stunned him in the Paris quarters in 2018. Then it was the Italian's turn to start losing -- eight straight Major first rounds as his ranking dropped back out of the top hundred. He may be getting back on track, though, reaching the final this past week in Parma. It's not crazy to think he might be able to engineer a rematch -- the first seed he'd face is Alex de Minaur, who's only ever won one match here, and the second is David Goffin, who might not make it even that far -- though expecting a repeat is probably a little less likely. Still, it'd be fun to see him try.

Roger Federer (8) vs. Matteo Berrettini (9): Now this one scares me. It's been over a year since we've seen Roger at a Major, and his performance since has been spotty at best. He drew the short end of the draw stick, with both Rafa and Nole in his half of the bracket, and the other Grand Slam champion in this section, Marin Cilic, is his probably second round opponent. Meanwhile, Berrettini has been suprisingly impressive of late, winning a title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. Fed has won their two prior meetings in 2019, but if the seedings play out as expected early, things may go differently this time around. And I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Quarterfinals

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Daniel Evans (25): Weirdly, it might be the lower-rated Brit that has the better chance of setting up this match. Evans, who kicked off this year with his first career title at the Murray River Open, may have scored the win of his career when he beat Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo. That certainly makes him more of a factor on a surface that's not traditionally his best. Thiem, though, who usually thrives on clay, has been a little more spotty post injury and has plenty of challenges on his route. So does Evans, of course, but if he survives, this one could be fun.

Alexander Zverev (6) vs. Casper Ruud (15): In an alternate universe Madrid champion makes good on his seeding, beating Evans in the third round, and Geneva titleist Casper Ruud, who also took out Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid, overcomes Thiem too, setting up what may, in the end, be a more likely quarterfinal. I begrudgingly admit Zverev has remained a force despite his off-court drama, and with some easy early rounds, should make it through relatively unscathed. And Ruud, who's sitting at a career-high ranking, is due for a Major breakout. There's no reason this can't be it for him.

Semifinals

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (3): It's not often that these two face off outside a final, especially at the French, so the fact that they're doing so now has plenty of people up in arms. After all, it's a pretty big injustice that Nadal is seeded third here -- sure, you can argue that he's had a quieter 12 months than world #2 Daniil Medvedev, but given the latter's obvious disdain for the surface -- and the former's dominance on it -- you'd think there could be some leeway. There are plenty of reasons for Rafa fan's to be nervous -- the last time he took on the Djoker before the final Sunday in Paris did not go his way, and he's been less than perfect this clay court season. Then again, so has Nole. And given how close their last meeting was, you know this one is going to be close. Whoever wins, though, if they're not completely spent from the battle, you have to think comes away with the title.

Championship

Rafael Nadal (3) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5): This pick may not be what the seedings predict, but given this clay court season it would be the most appropriate. Rafa, of course, will have to make it through a half which contains all of the Big Three, with a combined 58 Grand Slam titles between them -- adding in 2014 U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic makes it 59 -- not to mention a potential quarterfinal against Andrey Rublev, the man who beat him in Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas, on the other hand, with a season-leading 16 wins on clay this year, compared to Nadal's 14, has it relatively easy, with just one Major title in his half. He's never reached a final at this level though, falling just short at last year's French, but there's no question these have been the two best players on the surface this year. And given how close their previous matches have been, if they get a chance to play for this crown, you know it's going to be a good one.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Alexander Zverev (6): In another alternate universe, hearts are broken and justice is not served, but two very strong clay courters nevertheless reach the final. Djokovic made up for his slow start to the clay season, bringing home a title at the second Belgrade Open earlier today. And if there is anyone who'll be able to recover in time for a Slam, it's him. He doesn't often get the better of Nadal on these courts, but he's got what might be the best shot he's had in a long time this year. After all, he only barely lost the title to him in Rome, and that after a double header the day before. Zverev, meanwhile, has his own win over Nadal at a clay Masters and an arguably easier road to what woud be his second Slam final. If this is the championship we get, you know I'll be all in for Nole -- but Zverev seems destined for a trophy soon, and this might just be his time.


Well there you have it, the matches I hope or believe we'll see over the next two weeks at Roland Garros. Of course, we can't bank on anything at the Majors, and as much as we know we should never count out Rafa here, there are plenty of others ready to take up the mantle, and a lot more primed to make a big splash.

And as we kick off the second Grand Slam of the year, let's hope we can make it a good one.
Posted by Kavitha at 2:38 PM 0 comments
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October 14, 2020

Not Out of the Woods Yet

Here's a good reminder for everyone in the world, and not just for those involved in the world of tennis: we are in the midst of a global pandemic, one that has infected 38 million people so far and resulted in over a million deaths worldwide. And while we are opening back up our businesses, our bars, our gyms, our sporting events, we have to remember that we don't yet have things under control.


That's become abundantly clear when you look at what's happening at events this week in Europe. At the inaugural Forte Village tournament in Sardinia, Italy -- remember that country was one of the first COVID hotspots back in February -- top seeded Fabio Fognini was forced to withdraw after he tested positive for the coronavirus. Some reports say that more than a dozen others did as well.

And then there's the curious case of Sam Querrey who, along with his wife and child, was diagnosed earlier this week and broke quarantine to recover in an undisclosed neighboring country. I'm not sure I fault him for wanting to get out of Russia, but I certainly question his decision to go there in the first place.

After all, plenty of players have chosen to stay local during these uncertain times -- Simona Halep and Rafael Nadal stayed in Europe the last few months and put together some incredible results, while Ashleigh Barty, confined to Australia for some time, decided to win trophies in a whole other sport rather than travel to New York or Paris. But others have gone from one continent to another -- many without consequence, at least for now, but some, not so much.

In all at least ten of the top hundred players on the ATP have tested positive at some point this year -- Alexander Zverev, who raised more than a few eyebrows after his loss at Roland Garros, apparently was not COVID positive. Whether by good luck, less testing, or better safety measures, no one at the top of the WTA has. But there is something to be said about better protocols/more risk aversion -- many more of the top seeded women opted out of the U.S. Open compared to the men, and the WTA has only three tournaments left on the calendar this year, versus ten for the men, three of which are this week.

Now I know it's a difficult situation -- players need to be able to make their livings, and us fans want to watch them do it. But as much as I loved every moment of watching this year's French Open, I'm frankly stunned that it was able to be played through to completion, especially as Paris sees a resurgence in cases. Today president Emmanuel Macron, facing a record number of new positive cases this month, instituted a 9pm to 6am curfew for parts the country -- something that would have caused some scrambling had it happened a week ago, when Nadal was playing his semifinal match into the wee hours of the morning. And it just feels like we're pushing the limits of how much we can get away with.

So here's hoping the worst that comes out of the recent headlines is a few positive tests and no symptoms. And in the meantime, just wear a mask.
Posted by Kavitha at 7:21 PM 0 comments
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October 11, 2020

What's Your Number?

I don't think anyone was expecting as one-sided a final as we saw today at the French Open. But for most of his almost three-hour match against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal put on a master class in how to play -- and win -- on clay.


It may have taken a little longer than we expected after that rare bagel in the first set -- Nole finally started to make it a match in the third, breaking in the sixth game and keeping it close for a bit before Nadal was finally able to seal the deal.

And in doing so, he added a couple of major milestones to his résum&eacture; that paint a mean picture of just how dominating his game is, especially on these courts. Let's take a look at some of the astonishing achievements Rafa now lays claim to.

100: That's how many matches he's won at the French Open, starting with a 1:45 straight-setter against Germany's Lars Bursmuller back in 2005. He'd win thirty more in a row before his first loss at Roland Garros, and in sixteen appearances in Paris lost just one other time. The only man who's won more matches at a single Major is, not surprisingly, Roger Federer -- he's got 101 at Wimbledon and 102 in Melbourne -- but the 98% win rate surpasses both those feats. And the way he's playing, there's no reason to believe he won't set the record for total wins within a year.

13: The number of trophies he's captured in Paris, far exceeding what anyone else has claimed at a single Major. Novak and Roger have eight trophies each in Australia and Wimbledon respectively, and Rafa's now more than doubled the six earned in Paris by one-time king of clay Björn Borg in the 70s and early 80s. With fifteen years between his first and latest win here, too, Nadal has the longest reign of any man at one Slam. It's certainly more than luck that's brought him this historic victory, and as he goes for number fourteen next year, you can bet no one will be safe against him.

20: A record-tying number of Grand Slam trophies, something we would never have dreamed of a few years ago. When at Wimbledon in 2000, Pete Sampras passed Roy Emerson's twelve, a high-mark that had held up for more than three decades, and ended his career with a then-whopping fourteen Major titles, we thought he'd be the standard bearer for a long, long time. But less than seven years later, Roger Federer made himself the one to beat and, for seemingly good measure, extended his record to twenty. That Nadal could tie him and actually be in a position to take the lead too -- well, it's not something the Spaniard wanted to think about today, but goes to show just how awe-inspiring his accomplishment is.

Which of these records is most impressive? Roger will certainly look to extend his match record in Australia next year, as he plans to return to the courts in Melbourne, and Djokovic, with 17 Majors himself, is hot on the heels of his rivals. Meanwhile it sure feels like the 13-and-counting watermark will be the toughest to break, whatever Slam you're talking about -- we've got at least five years before either of his closest competitors can possibly match him.

Who knows were Nadal will stand when all is said and done. But his performance sure shows why it's so hard for anyone to make a crack in the Big Three. And as we start to approach what will inevitably be a changing of the guard, we certainly know whoever comes next will have big shoes to fill.
Posted by Kavitha at 1:14 PM 0 comments
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October 10, 2020

Making It Look Easy

Winning a Grand Slam is hard work. Like, really, really hard work. But you might not know it from watching nineteen-year-old Iga Swiatek steamroll through the draw at the French Open this year and walk away with the title.

We've already talked about her road here -- opening with an easy win over 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova before stunning odds-on favorite Simona Halep, the woman who beat her last year, in the fourth round. She didn't lose a set at all on her way to Saturday's match, and that didn't change against reigning Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin. After giving up an early 3-0 lead to draw even, Swiatek lost just one more game over the next hour or so, and in doing so became the first player from Poland to ever win a Major title.


Her accomplishment is made even more notable by the success she also had on the doubles court. A winner of the Girls' event with Caty McNally two years ago, this time Swiatek teamed up with U.S. Open finalist Nicole Melichar to reach the semis, playing essentially every day since the tournament started.

And rather than tire her out, it's possible all that time on court gave her an edge in the final. She's not the first player, of course, to shake off any nerves that accompany playing for the big title the first time -- Naomi Osaka, Bianca Andreescu, and even Kenin herself have not only come out the victor in their maiden Major finals, but beat women with multiple trophies already to do it. But she seemed uniquely able to put the weight of the moment aside and play like she was the one expected to win.

And maybe she was. Despite the fact that Swiatek had never won a title before Paris, only ever reaching one final at a smaller event last year in Lugano, Switzerland, after her defeat of Halep oddsmakers shifted their bets to her. After all, she's been far outhitting her current-but-climbing world #54 ranking all year -- she nearly made the quarters this year in Melbourne and put up a nice fight against eventual U.S. Open runner-up Victoria Azarenka last month, drawing praise from the former #1. And while she hasn't yet made a splash in the main draw at Wimbledon, something tells me the 2018 Girls' champion there might be one to watch in 2021.

By the way, the dominance of Swiatek both in the final and during the entire tournament shouldn't take away from the performance of Sofia Kenin, who I'd admittedly written off after she failed to impress after that magical run in Melbourne. Though she picked up a title in Lyon, she'd been otherwise pretty lackluster, getting upset in the fourth round of New York and absolutely drubbed in her Rome opener. While she had few straightforward matchs in Paris, it was encouraging to see her rebound to make her second Major final of the year. It goes a long way to showing that she's no one-hit wonder.

Of course, that challenge now falls to the most newly-crowned Slam champion. After all, out-of-nowhere winners don't always have the follow through you'd hope to see. But Swiatek's composure throughout her Roland Garros run gives me hope that we've only just started to see what she can do.
Posted by Kavitha at 1:26 PM 0 comments
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October 7, 2020

Something Old, Something New

What an eventful week and a half it's been! Now I know the more consequential stuff has been happening way, way off the tennis courts, but there have been some truly exhilerating and dramatic moments on the clay of Paris that deserve to be celebrated. And with the final four now decided on both the men's and women's side of the draws, you can't help but notice a marked differnce between the experience levels of the remaining contenders.


Let's start with the men's draw where, not terribly surprisingly, top seeds Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have largely sailed through their halves. Of course, after what we saw in New York and to a lesser extent in Rome, we could take nothing for granted, and things didn't go exactly according to plan at every turn. Rafa, still the odds-on favorite to win the title, despite coming into Roland Garros without a single clay court title this year, wrapped up his quarterfinal match at 1:30 in the morning Wednesday. And Nole, in a rematch of the U.S. Open fourth round against Pablo Carreño Busta which ended in a default, dropped the first set again today, but this time kept his cool -- it is, after all, cold this time of year -- and pulled out the win. With a combined 36 Grand Slam titles between them, it should be no shocker that they know how to bring the heat when needed.

Their opponents, on the other hand, are much less familiar to this scene, but are really making their own statements this season. Stefanos Tsitsipas, who seems like he's been at the top of this sport for much longer than his 22 years would realistically allow, had actually only made one Major semi before this year, beating Roger Federer last year in Melbourne before dropping to Rafa two rounds later. And while his performance was a little disappointing at the start of the year, he managed a title in Marseille just before the shutdown and then rebounded from early exits in New York and Rome to make the final in Hamburg. Earlier today, he avenged his loss in that championship match with a decisive straight-set win over a talented Andrey Rublev. He's never faced Djokovic on a stage this big, but he does have a couple Masters wins over the world #1, and he could give us a great show as he looks to make his first Slam final.

And then there's Diego Schwartzman, my dark horse pick to make the semis. He'd never made it out of quarters at a Major before, but had been showing signs of brilliance for the better part of two years. He notched what was by far the biggest win of his career two weeks ago, stunning Nadal on his way to the Rome final. And while he didn't face a real challenge in his first few rounds in Paris, he was well-tested by two-time defending French finalist, and recently-crowned U.S. Open champ Dominic Thiem in Tuesday's first men's match, coming back from one set-to-two down to defeat arguably the second best clay courter on tour right now. It will be a lot to ask him to make it a second straight against Rafa too -- especially after that five-hour slugfest. But the veteran Argentine has certainly pulled out surprises before and might just be able to do it again.


Turning now to the ladies, where in one half we have two seeded Grand Slam champions and in the other two players on wildly untrodden ground. Reigning Australian Open champ Sofia Kenin roundly quieted the detractors (which included me) after a lackluster post-shutdown performance (which included a double bagel loss to Victoria Azarenka in Rome). While she's certainly been tested -- she's been pushed to three sets in four of her five matches -- she's held tough and found what she needed to win. She'll face off against two-time Wimbledon winner Petra Kvitova, who's made her first semi here after eight years. She's won her only two meetings with Kenin, and while the young American -- who overcame a 0-3 history against Danielle Collins earlier today -- won't let that bother her, it does feel like Kvitova has regained the form she needs to make another final.

In the other half of the draw, nineteen-year-old Iga Swiatek has incredibly emerged as the favorite -- not just to make the final but, according to oddsmakers, to win the whole thing. It shouldn't be that surprising she's finding success though -- with wins over Carla Suarrez Navarro, Donna Vekic, and Veronika Kudermetova this year, she's far outplaying her #57 ranking. And she's only continued to impress at Roland Garros. She took out last year's runner-up Market Vondrousova in the first round and absolutely drubbed heavy favorite Simona Halep in the fourth round. She's been an absolute beast in all her matches actually, losing exactly zero sets in both singles and doubles -- she and U.S. Open finalist Nicole Melichar are in the semis together, too -- and while I might worry that all that court time could exhaust her, she's showing no signs of letting up any time soon.

But we absolutely can't count out her net opponent, qualifier Nadia Podoroska, who's already played eight singles matches in what's only her second Major main draw (her only other appearance was at the 2016 U.S. Open where, as a qualifier again -- she'd beaten Donna Vekic in the prelims -- she lost to Annika Beck in the first round). Don't let her ranking, all the way down at #131 in the world, fool you, though -- she won an ITF title on clay in Saint-Malo, France, at the start of September and made the final the week prior in Prague. In her run here, she survived a volatile Yulia Putintseva in the second round and then crushed an in-form Elina Svitolina in the quarters. She's far exceeded any expectations she could have had for herself this event, but what a story it would be if she managed to go even one round further?

By the way, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention how happy I am that three of my four men's semifinal picks did make it as far as I hoped, although my gloating must be tempered by the fact that none of the ladies I expected lived up to expecatations. Still, I'm sufficiently satisfied with that record. I'll be back with another gimmick for next year's Slams -- and, of course, for more coverage of all the action that's left this season...and at this Major.

And if what we've seen so far at the French is a signal of what that'll look like, we've got a lot to look forward to!
Posted by Kavitha at 6:57 PM 0 comments
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