From Zero to Hero

What a turnaround for Daniil Medvedev.

The world #4 came to London for his second trip to the year-end championships with a season that was a far cry than what he put together last year. Red hot to round out the 2019 season -- the now 24-year-old Russian had put together a stunning 29-4 record in his regular season after Wimbledon, playing six finals, including the U.S. Open, and picking up three titles -- I thought him nearly unstoppable. He'd beaten Dominic Thiem in Montreal, Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati, and forced Rafael Nadal to a stunning five setter in New York. But then, to the surprise of many, he went winless at the ATP Finals.

It appeared that lost momentum was following him into 2020, too -- while he made the semis at the ATP Cup, he lost fairly early to Stan Wawrinka in Australia and despite break leads in the second and third sets against Thiem in the U.S. Open semis, he ended up losing in straight sets a match that should have been much closer. He didn't do much better in the early fall either, losing in the first round of both clay court events he played, including Roland Garros, and then dropping matches to Reilly Opelka in St. Petersburg and Kevin Anderson in Vienna.

It might have been easy to write him off. But then he hit the hard courts of Paris and everything changed. He blasted past an on-point Diego Schwartzman in the quarters and came back from a set down to beat Alexander Zverev, who was coming off his own Grand Slam final debut at, offcourt issues notwithstanding, had won the last two events he'd played.

The title, Medvedev's first of the season, seemed to help him find the confidence that appeared lacking for so long. He was the only player of the eight qualifiers in London to win all three of his round robin matches, even stunning Djokovic, and didn't drop a single set. Against Rafa in Saturday's semi, he held tough after losing the first set and again when Nadal was serving for the match in the third, to pull off his first win over the world #2 in four meetings and to deny the Spaniard another chance to play for one of the few titles he's never won.

Meanwhile Dominic Thiem, last year's runner-up at the ATP Finals, was coming back to the O2 for the fifth straight year, but for the first time as a Major trophy winner. He was nearly flawless in his group matches, scoring an all-important win over Nadal but losing to London newbie Andrey Rublev in his last round robin. But he was undaunted against Djokovic in the semi -- after squandering match points in the second set tiebreak and finding himself in a 0-4 hole in the deciding breaker, he powered through to win seven of the next eight points, finally capitalizing on his sixth match point to get back to the final.

He came out firing on Sunday too, taking the first set from Medvedev in the championship match, but somehow the Russian was able to regroup again. After saving break chances in the second, Medvedev was able to force a decider and a late break in the third ultimately earned him the win.

Singles champions in London 🇬🇧

09: Davydenko
10: Federer
11: Federer
12: Djokovic
13: Djokovic
14: Djokovic
15: Djokovic
16: Murray
17: Dimitrov
18: Zverev
19: Tsitsipas
20: Medvedev@DaniilMedwed #NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/Ld2iETrLq8

— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 22, 2020

The win for Medvedev serves as a nice bookend for the ATP Finals' time in London -- the first event held here back in 2009 was won by fellow Russian Nikolay Davydenko, what turned out to be by far the biggest win of his career. Will this be the highlight for Medvedev, too? Somehow, I doubt it. At 24, he's got much more time to be at the top of his game, and his ability to go from 0-3 to 5-0 against the very best players in the world suggests my initial belief in his talent was not unfounded.

Of course, we still don't know what next year will look like -- as we've seen the last pro matches of a very weird tennis season, there remain a ton of questions about the lead up to the Australian Open, who will make the trip, what restrictions they'll be under. But it seems certain Medvedev will hit the court running and the rest of the field will have to watch out.

A Final 50 Years in the Making

What a long and winding road it's been this year, huh? And against all odds, we're finally here at the last men's tournament of the season -- one we were doubting could possibly happen just a few months ago. But after all was said and done, the eight best players on tour this year are in London for the 50^th anniversary of the ATP Finals, set to kick off their quests for a trophy that will cap off the strangest year in way more than half a century of tennis.

It's the moment we've been waiting for...

The official 2020 #NittoATPFinals singles photo! 😃 pic.twitter.com/Ow6fQSpc6k

— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 13, 2020

In the pack are a couple of year-end regulars and a handful of past champions, but if history is any guide experience isn't necessarily an advantage in London. Year-end #1 Novak Djokovic hasn't won the title here in five years, and shockingly Rafael Nadal has only ever made the championship match twice and lost both of them. Meanwhile defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to win the whole thing on his first attempt last year. Does that bode well for this year's newbies? Well, they certainly hope so.

Group Tokyo 1970

The first round robin group, named in tribute to the first Masters event won by Sam Smith, is headlined by Novak Djokovic, who put together an astounding 39-3 record this year (with one big asterisk next to one of those losses). With four titles in 2020 and a 12-4 record against his groupmates, he's, as usual, the favorite for this title even with the relative drought he's had here. Still, he is coming off a pretty surprising loss to Lorenzo Sonego in Vienna, so there's more than enough opportunity for one of the new guys to step up.

Daniil Medvedev is the next highest-ranked player in the group, passing Roger Federer to become the #4 player in the world after his title in Paris. He went winless in his debut here last year, kind of surprising considering how strong his finish to last season was -- outside his courageous showing in the 2019 U.S. Open final, he also picked up Masters titles in Cincy and Shanghai -- so he'll certainly want to make up for that disappointing showing. A couple weeks ago, I might not have given him much of a chance, but that title in Bercy could help boost his confidence.

He got that win, after all, over another in this group -- Alexander Zverev, who claimed the championship here in 2018. He's actually the only player other than Djokovic in this group with a combined winning record against his opponents, and he's been, somewhat irritatingly, on a hot streak this fall. Since making his first Grand Slam final in New York -- and taking a 2-0 set lead in it -- he picked up two straight titles in Cologne before coming in second in Paris. And while the allegations from his ex may be all that's on our minds, he seems undistracted by anything going on off-court.

Rounding out the Tokyo Group is Diego Schwartzman, who is making his post-season debut at the ripe old age of 28. The 2014 champion at the ATP Challenger Tour Finals, Schwartzman really graduated to the big leagues in the last few months of the year, stunning Rafael Nadal in Rome and then fighting through a grueling five-setter to beat Dominic Thiem at the French Open. He hasn't lost to anyone outside the top ten since September, which may not be the most impressive stat, but certainly shows how he's upped his game recently. Still, he has by far the worst record against his opponents of anyone in London, but he's shown he's got what it takes to turn things around.

Group London 2020

The second half of the draw is led by Rafael Nadal who, in his tenth appearance at this event, is incredibly trying to capture one of the few titles missing from his trophy shelf. He has a decent draw to make it out of the round robins, with a 15-6 record against his opponents, and with a solid showing on hard courts this year, he might be able to come out on top. But, as always, the challengers will be tough.

Dominic Thiem is playing his fifth year end championship, and like Rafa has never come away with a trophy, losing in the final last year. But he's also never gone in as a Grand Slam winner, either. Will that give him a confidence he hasn't had before? It certainly could. After all, after getting OHSOCLOSE to winning the title in Australia at the start of the year -- having already beat Nadal in the quarters -- he was able to take it all in his next Major outing. He might be able to make lightning strike twice here too.

Of course, he'll face off early against the man who beat him here last year -- Stefanos Tsitsipas is back for the second straight year. But the Greek 22-year-old has been a little hot-and-cold this season. After early losses in Melbourne and New York, he was able to make his first Slam semi at Roland Garros, pushing Novak Djokovic to five sets to do it. But he lost early in his next two events, going 1-2 over the last few weeks. His biggest advantage, though, might be the element of surprise -- we weren't expecting much from him last year, and look at what he was able to do with it.

But the biggest wildcard at this event may be Andrey Rublev, who's got a tour-leading five titles this year. Playing at the tour finals for the first time, he's certainly a long shot for a title, but unlike the other newbie, he has a decent 4-5 record against his group opponents -- two of those wins came against Thiem and Tsitsipas on the way to two of his trophies this season. He's also gone on a couple of long win streaks in 2020, kicking off the season with eleven straight match wins, and repeating that run after the French Open, where he incidentally made his first Slam quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if he scored a few more victories and at least made his way to the semis.

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However this event plays out, we can be sure of one things -- the best talents in men's tennis certainly made the best of what they could during this season. It may not have gone through the way we wanted, and there's still a lot more uncertainty ahead. But if these guys can keep up their best levels, we'll at least be able to end this year on a strong note.

Nothing Motivates Like Success

It's kind of a weird saying, right? You'd assume the sharp pain from a recent loss would be all a competitive athlete needs to improve his game and come out swinging even harder the next time he hits the court. But perhaps it's only the very best out there who can so easily shake off disappointment, proving any setback is just a minor bump on the way to even bigger achievements down the road. And at this week's ATP Championships in London, that's exactly what Novak Djokovic did.

The world #1's hiccup came during his round robin matches where, in his first defeat since August, he dropped in straight sets to Roger Federer. But a solid win over Tomas Berdych in his final group match secured him spot in the semifinals, where he took on an impressively resurgent Rafael Nadal, who'd gone 3-0 during his early rounds. But the former top-ranked Spaniard, still looking for his first ever World Tour Final championship, ran out of steam on Saturday, never ever earning a break point and ultimately falling in less than eighty minutes.

Meanwhile Federer was able to keep his momentum going a little longer -- after winning all three of his round robin matches, losing just one set to an on-the-mend Kei Nishikori, he was riding high atop his group standings. Meanwhile compatriot Stan Wawrinka's fate went down to the wire -- splitting his first two matches in London his battle Friday against hometown favorite Andy Murray was do-or-die. But the reigning French Open champion, having won the pair's last two meetings kept his streak going, closing the gap further with his rival. The effort may have taken a bit out of him, though -- despite what seemed on paper like a closer score, Roger needed even less time to score the win Saturday and earned himself a chance at a seventh ATP Championship

But Djokovic wasn't about to crumble again against the only man who's beaten him in months -- in Sunday's final, he got a break early and barely looked back, withstanding solid serving from his opponent and pouncing on his returns. After two quick sets, he'd become the only man ever to win four straight World Tour Finals and cemented his place at the very top of the ATP this season.

Nole's win this week is not unlike what Serena Williams did at the WTA Finals last year -- after a dominating end to her year, she rebounded from a stunning loss to Simona Halep in the round robins, only to crush her adversary in the championship match. Djokovic has a little ways to go before he can earn a full comparison to one of the most decorated players in the field, but after his amazing performance so far this year, it certainly seems he's well on his way.

And with the momentum he's got in his pocket already, there's no telling when he'll stop.

One to Go...

Two sets of round robin matches are in the books at the year-end championships, and now we're starting to get a clearer picture of who will ultimately be playing for the title -- and a couple men you might not have expected are really taking the chance to shine. But with everyone still having one match left, there's still a lot that can happen, and even for those who've already clinched a spot in the semis, there's still a lot on the line.

Group A

Novak Djokovic, undefeated since August, was the clear favorite among the first group of London qualifiers, but he's not the one who's been most impressive so far. Roger Federer, who's had a couple early losses since the U.S. Open had fallen to the third seed this week but came out firing anyway -- after an easy win over Tomas Berdych he absolutely pummeled Nole on Tuesday, making himself the only undefeated player among these four and securing his ticket to the semis. Nole isn't totally out of contention, of course -- he opened with a quick win over a struggling Kei Nishikori on Sunday. But the man from Japan, who only just made the cut for the World Tour Finals having lost in the first round in New York and retiring at the Paris Masters, bounced back from his early loss by notching his own win over Berdych. How these two guys perform tomorrow will mean everything -- Kei's beaten Roger more than once before and another victory could earn him a spot in the final four or push the Swiss into second place for the group. And Djokovic, still hoping to reach the semis, could even vault back into the first spot, giving him a big advantage when things really become heated.

Group B

Of course the bigger surprises came in the second group of finalists. Rafael Nadal, who despite his many honors has never won in London, has been famously up and down all year long. But he opened by avenging his Paris loss to Stan Wawrinka and then stunned Andy Murray in his second match today, scoring his biggest win since last year's French Open final. Like Roger he's now the only one in this bunch who hasn't lost this week and he's also booked his ticket to the semisfinals. He has a good shot at keeping his top spot too -- he has a solid 23-6 record against David Ferrer, his only remaining opponent -- but the veteran Spaniard did beat him last year in Monte Carlo and has arguably been the more consistent player over the last few months. But the bigger battle will certainly be between Murray and Wawrinka, a pair of powerhouses who've nearly split their head-to-head -- neither have reached the final in London yet, but both have come pretty close. And while it seems like they're just playing for second place in this group, the opportunity could still be great -- they're both gaining ground on both Roger and Nole, so whoever ends at the top of the other section will be in for a fight as soon as they get back on court

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So perhaps things have gotten a bit more interesting than we were anticipating at this year's ATP Championships, but it certainly seems like we're seeing a couple players really upping their games at the end of the season. And while the competition will only get more intense from here, the ones who've shined brightest might just be the ones best able to take advantage.

London Preview: The Best of the Best

We're just hours away from the start of this year's ATP Championships, and while we certainly have an idea of who the favorites might be, there's a lot of ball to be played before the title is given away. And with the best players of the year all on court to battle it out for 2015's final trophy, everyone might just be in for the biggest fights they've faced yet this season.

Group A

These guys are the first to get to work in London, and perhaps have some of the highest credentials in the field. Top seed Novak Djokovic, with ten titles in 2015, including three Majors, is the clear favorite, but the three-time defending champion has plenty of competition. Roger Federer slipped to #3 in the world this year, despite reaching the finals in both New York and at Wimbledon, and may be hungrier than ever for a win here. He may have lost a bit early at the latter-stage Masters events, but a win over Rafael Nadal in the Basel championship shows he's still got fight left in him. But perhaps the underdogs in this group can shake things up -- Tomas Berdych has only beaten one player in this group this year, but only barely lost to Nole in Paris and could carry that momentum with him now. And Kei Nishikori, one of the last guys to qualify for London this year, has been a bit quiet in recent months, but his big-hitting got him all the way to the semis here in 2014, and has a solid five wins over top-ten players this season. If he's back in top form, there's really no one in this field he can't beat.

Group B

You can be sure the fight in the second group of Round Robins will be just as intense, though. Andy Murray returns to his homeland as the second seed, and is one of only three people in this field who's beaten Djokovic in 2015. While it's been a while since his last Major, he has won two Masters titles this year and has a 3-0 record against the other members of his Group this year. Still you can expect some push back now that the stakes are so high -- Stan Wawrinka, after all, was the surprise winner this year at Roland Garros, where he also beat Roger Federer in the quarters, by the way. Though he's also had a couple hiccups, he also has what it takes to thrive against the sport's very best. And David Ferrer, who had a stellar surge during the back half of the year, is one of the most experienced players in this group and might just be able put that experience to good use. Of course eyes will be on Rafael Nadal who, despite all his accomplishments, has never won the year-end championship. He did, however, beat Wawrinka just last month, and very nearly got the better of Federer in Basel. While he's certainly not used to being the underdog at events like this, there's no reason he can't come out swinging -- and perhaps when no one's expecting it, he might have his best opportunity to shine.

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Of course, with so much talent on the courts you know that anything can happen over the next few days in London. And while a couple players have certainly established themselves as the ones to beat, on a stage like this, you can't count anyone out. And with everyone sure to be hitting their hardest, you know we're in for one of the biggest battles of the year -- so whoever comes out on top will definitely have earned it.

An Unfortunate Ending?

After a breath-taking, star-making, record-setting season, it's a bit of a shame that the most anticipated match of the post season never got played.

After a week at the World Tour Finals in London, world #1 Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, just a bit behind in the rankings, had characteristically gotten through the Round Robin matches largely unscathed. Both went a perfect 3-0 in early rounds, with Nole losing just nine games and Roger decimating a suddenly back-in-form Andy Murray in their final contest. They were finally tested in Saturday's semis -- Djokovic faced a rematch with his U.S. Open vanquisher Kei Nishikori, dropping his first set of the event before reaching his eighth final of the year. And Fed battled through a late-night nail-biter, saving four match points during his nearly three-hour marathon against compatriot Stan Wawrinka on the way to his eleventh. The effort ultimately proved too much, though -- the thirty-three year old legend had to pull out of today's final with a back injury, only the second time in his storied career he's withdrawn from a title match. And while it may not have happened the way he wanted, Novak Djokovic was crowned year-end champion for the third straight year.

It's unfortunate, of course, since the entire tennis world was hoping for another historic match between the two greats. And though Nole had already secured his third season-ending #1 ranking, Roger was still slightly ahead in their head-to-head and actually led in their five encounters this year. But it doesn't take away what Djokovic has accomplished during the year -- six seven titles, another Grand Slam, not to mention the life-changing events he's had off the court. While Roger could have put up a great fight, it's hard to argue anyone else deserved this trophy more.

And we'll just get to look forward to what these two will give us in the new year.

The Final Countdown

We're getting down to the wire at this year's ATP Championships in London, with just a few more round robins left before the final four are determined. And while we might not have yet seen a lot of drama on court this week -- only one match so far has gone three sets -- as the very best in tennis try to keep their seasons going a little longer, almost everyone still has a chance to make it to championship weekend. And that just might mean the most excitement is still to come.

World #1 Novak Djokovic is looking for a three-peat at the O2 and hasn't lost a set since the Shanghai semis. This week he's dropped just five games, seven fewer than his nearest competitor, and has notched wins over the other two players who've won Grand Slams this year. With a 16-2 record against his last remaining opponent Tomas Berdych, it seems inevitable he'll make it out of his group. The Czech, meanwhile, will likely vie with Stan Wawrinka, who made the semis here last year. Berdych lost to the Swiss #2 pretty handily on Monday, but managed a one-sided win over post-season newbie Marin Cilic just yesterday, when Nole got some definitive revenge over his Australian Open vanquisher. Things could get interesting tomorrow when the foursome take the court -- Cilic doesn't have a great record against Wawrinka, but the big man has struggled in recent weeks and might be a little vulnerable this time around. And while Cilic is disappointingly 0-2 in his London debut so far, he has certainly shown he has the ability to shake things up.

Meanwhile standings in the second set of World Tour Final qualifiers all come down to tonight's headline show. Six-time champion Roger Federer, perfect so far this week, will take on Andy Murray, who's been making quite a push in the latter parts of the season. The two are dead even at eleven wins apiece in their head-to-head, and with so much on the line now, they'll each be bringing their A-games to tonight's battle. Waiting patiently in the wings will be Kei Nishikori, the only London first-timer still in contention for a final spot -- earlier today he squeaked past David Ferrer, Milos Raonic's replacement, in the only three-setter played this week. With his own straight set win over Murray in the round robins, the U.S. Open runner-up still stands a chance of reaching the semis if Roger falters tonight.

Time is quickly ticking down at this year's World Tour Finals, and pressure is high across the field -- while things look good for a championship showdown between the top-two, most decorated players out there, there's plenty of room for others to spoil the favorites' fun. And if we've learned anything this tennis season, it's that no one is safe for long.

All Set...?

The regular season ATP schedule wrapped up this weekend at the Paris Masters, with Novak Djokovic successfully reclaiming his title and the last few spots for the year-ending championships finally being decided. And while some of the theatrics involved in clamoring for those places and selecting alternates may have made more headlines than the on-court action in Bercy, we still got a glimpse of some of the surprises we could be in store for at the O2. And even those players who've had their tickets to London booked for weeks or months could be in for more than they expect.

Djokovic, of course, gave himself a bit more cushion in his attempt to end the year at #1 for a third time. In his first event as a father, he didn't drop a set all week and beat three fellow London qualifiers in the late rounds to capture his sixth trophy of the year. More impressively he got revenge against Kei Nishikori, the man who stunned him in New York a few months back, and stopped Andy Murray's autumn resurgence cold with a straight set win in the quarters. But Roger Federer's hopes for his own return to the top ranking were put on hold a bit -- after picking up his sixth title in Basel, he was in good shape to close the gap between himself and Nole. But after a close opening match against Jeremy Chardy in Paris, he notched his first ever loss to Milos Raonic, largely helping the Canadian into his post-season debut as well and falling slightly behind in the standings.

In a slightly more tenuous position is London's third seed Stan Wawrinka who shot into the spotlight with his first Grand Slam title in Melbourne. While he slowed down quite a bit after that, his performances recently have been downright disappointing -- he lost to triple-digit ranked Tatsuma Ito in Tokyo and world #84 Mikhail Kukushkin in his homeland of Basel. While he did manage a win over rising star Dominic Thiem to open this week, he subsequently lost for a third time this year to South Africa's Kevin Anderson. The six-foot-eight collegiate star, who had a very slim chance of qualifying for London himself, then took it to Tomas Berdych, on the bubble this week too, forcing the Czech through three tight sets before finally succumbing. Both Berdych and Wawrinka will have to raise their game if they want to see much success at the World Tour Finals.

Andy Murray certainly has been bringing his A-game recently -- ranked as low as #12 in the world right after the U.S. Open, the two-time Grand Slam winner really turned things around in the fall. He claimed titles in Shenzhen and Vienna and put on one of the best shows of the year to take the Valencia title a week ago. He may have lost in the quarters in Paris, but he's shown he still has what it takes to make a winning return in London. Kei Nishikori too, qualifying for his O2 debut, has certainly rebounded well after his New York disappointment -- he picked up titles in Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo and came back from a set down against eventual alternate David Ferrer to make the semis this week. He may still be getting used to the rarefied air of the sport's elite, but something tells me he won't be intimidated when he takes the court in London.

Joining Kei in the year-end newbie category is Milos Raonic, who followed up his win over Federer with his third top-ten victory of the season, beating Tomas Berdych in the semis. While he couldn't put up much of a fight against Djokovic when the title was on the line, his performance in Paris ended a streak of surprising losses in October. If he can keep up the momentum, he could cause a couple more surprises in London. And U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic, the fourth first-timer at the World Tour Finals, may not have played in Paris, but he's coming off his fourth title of the year in Moscow and a season during which he's scored five top-ten wins of his own. With victories over the likes of Federer, Murray, Berdych and close calls against Nole, he certainly can't be counted out in the post-season.

Of course there will be favorites in London, and experience certainly favors those who've been there before. But if results in Paris -- and for the entire year, for that matter -- are any indication, it sure looks like nothing is certain. So we should get ready for what's going to be a big season-ending battle -- one where, this year perhaps more than others, anything can happen.

Bookends

It must be nice to end the year exactly the way you started it -- at least when you kick it off the way Novak Djokovic did in 2012.

No, he didn't have quite the success he had at the start of last year -- the two titles he won in the first half pale in comparison to the eight he wracked up in the same period of 2011, and he wasn't able to repeat the shocking defeats of Rafael Nadal on clay he scored last season. But he made the final at three of the four Grand Slams and late-season wins in Beijing and Shanghai helped him secure the year-end #1 ranking for a second straight year.

Still, there had been a bit of a curse on top players at the ATP Championships in recent years. In 2011 Djokovic's grueling schedule must've taken a huge toll on him in the post-season -- he lost two of three round robin matches and failed to make it to the London semis. A year earlier, Rafael Nadal did reach the final, but couldn't close out the title against Roger Federer. With some interesting underdogs sneaking in for trophies before that, the year-end #1 hasn't taken year-end championship since 2007, when eventual six-time winner Roger Federer picked up his fourth. And the way the veteran champion began yesterday's title match, it looked like he was about to add to his total.

Federer might have had an even more impressive year than his opponent. Though he didn't finish 2012 with the top ranking, he briefly reclaimed it after ending a long Slam drought in July and picked up another five titles to boot. He made his eighth ATP Championship match after a one-sided win over recent nemesis Andy Murray, and took control early against Djokovic on Monday. He won the first three games of the match and, after ceding the lead a few games later, successfully kept Nole from serving out the set at 6-5. With shots like this, he proved he is still hungry for more titles, but more than a few errors also proved he's also human, and eventually put him in a one-set deficit. Djokovic kept cool in the second set too -- after a long opening game he got down a break early again, but finally broke for five-all, saving set points and ultimately winning the match after over two hours on court.

While Nole didn't need the win to clinch the top year-end ranking, his victory certainly cements his place as the most successful player of the year, stealing back momentum that may have shifted in recent months. He also becomes only the ninth player of the Open Era to hold the spot two years in a row, and the first since Roger Federer began his domination of the sport ten years ago.

So have we finally, officially witnessed a changing of the guard in men's tennis? With Djokovic proving he can not only come out swinging as he did in 2011, but can also weather the storm of tournaments through spring, summer and fall, has he ultimately shown he's ready to take the reins over from the Greatest of All Time? And how long will his own dominance last?

Whatever the case, there are plenty of players nipping at his heels, eager to prove they too are part of this new era. But if Nole continues to play like he did this year -- and no, not like he did last -- it could be quite some time before he lets anyone else in.

Clash of the Titans

When you think of all the headlines that have crossed the tennis wires recently, it's pretty easy to forget who's been at the top of the sport all season. Andy Murray's domination at the U.S. Open, Juan Martin Del Potro's comeback tour during the fall, David Ferrer's breakthrough at the Paris Masters -- all worthy distractions, but none enough to erase the fact that two men have had the most success on the court in 2012. And while the year-end #1 ranking will not be decided by tomorrow's final, it's nevertheless fitting to see 2008 champion Novak Djokovic battle six-time winner Roger Federer for the World Tour Final in London.

Nole was a little quiet in the middle part of the year -- he didn't win a title between March and August, and after a harrowing defeat in the New York, it seemed momentum had shifted elsewhere. Still, he picked things up in the fall and clinched his second straight season at #1 before making the trip to the O2. He was the only man in the field to get through the round robins without losing a match, the first time he's accomplished that feat in six season finale appearances, and made his way to the semis as the favorite.

He seemed a little lethargic to start his semi today against Juan Martin Del Potro, though. The Argentine had just squeaked into the year-end championships last week, and was coming off his second straight win over Roger Federer in his final round robin match. He was a little shaky in Sunday's first contest, struggling on serve early and fighting off break points, but as Djokovic's serve seemed to break down a bit, the big man took advantage, broke in the ninth game of the match and served out the set at love. He even got an early break in the second set before Nole finally found his game -- the Serb quickly got back on serve and eventually forced a decider. By that point Del Potro was spent -- he won just two points on return in the third, took just half of his own serves and eventually ceded the match after two-plus hours of play. With the win, Djokovic returns to the final for the first time since he took the title four years ago, but his competition this time might be a little more fierce.

Roger Federer has won this event more than any man in history, and his performance in 2012 shows that he's still hungry for more. He's lost a few ranking points in the last few months -- he failed to defend any of the three titles he won after last year's U.S. Open -- but with his first Grand Slam trophy in over two years, he reclaimed the #1 ranking and qualified for the World Tour Final for the eleventh consecutive year. He was indomitable early in the round robins, not dropping a set to either relative newbie Janko Tipsarevic or veteran David Ferrer, and, despite his loss to Del Potro on Saturday, still managed to win his group.

For his reward he earned the right to face Andy Murray who, with his titles in London and New York, has been fighting all year to have his name included among the top three in tennis. It looked like he'd further make his case today when he opened the second semi with a break of Federer in the first game. Several minutes later, though, Roger evened the score and eventually forced a tiebreak. After converting his second set point, he dominated his recent rival -- in the next set he too lost just two points on serve, withstood some strong serving from his opponent and scored his first win over the Scot since the Wimbledon final. Tomorrow he'll be going for his third straight title in London and, maybe more importantly, for the right to prove he's not going anywhere.

Novak and Roger have split their four meetings this year, each claiming a win at a Major, and while Federer has won their last two, Djokovic has taken four of their last five hardcourts matches. Together, they've won eleven titles this year -- two Slams -- made another eight finals and put together a 39-17 record against top ten players. It's another battle between old and new, but despite recent slowdowns both have made quite a case for themselves all season. And with just one match left this year, there are no two players more deserve to still be standing for it -- so let's make it a good one.

Moving Forward.

It's been an exciting couple of days in the U.S., and whether or not you agree with the results of the Presidential election, we have been given a leader who promises a brighter future for the nation. The stakes might not be quite as high at the ATP Championships being contested this week in London, but so far the incumbent powerhouses have put on quite a show, and with their last-minute campaigning, they could prove they're more than ready to lead this sport for some time to come.

Group A

With two round robin matches in the books already, we still don't have any final calls for the first group of candidates. World #1 Novak Djokovic, though, certainly looks in the best shape to make the semifinals -- the 2008 champion has gone 2-0 in his early rounds, avenging Andy Murray again on Wednesday to take the lead. He'll next face Tomas Berdych, a man who's only beaten him once in their eleven meetings, so chances are pretty good he'll advance.

But hot on his tails will be Andy Murray -- the U.S. Open champion has had a breakthrough year, and the prospect of an ATP championship would put the cherry on top. He's 1-1 in London so far, and needed three sets in his win as well as in his loss, but as long as he can get at least one set off of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga tomorrow, it's pretty likely he'll make the final four.

Hope isn't quite lost for Berdych or Tsonga yet, but as the less experienced players in the group -- both are making their third trip to the Championships -- it makes sense their roads forward will be tougher. The Czech has been strong in recent months, stunning Roger Federer in New York and winning a title in Stockholm. A win tomorrow could rocket him to the top of the group standings. Meanwhile Tsonga, who's had a bit of trouble defending points he'd accumulated late last year, hasn't won a match yet in London, but if he manages a win tomorrow he also has an outside chance to make it back to the semis.

Group B

There are still some ballots to be cast among the other London hopefuls, but long-standing seat-holder Roger Federer's performance so far has at least earned him a ticket to the semis. The six-time winner may have ceded the top ranking spot in recent weeks, but as the eldest statesman in the group, there should be no surprise he's been untouchable so far this week. He trampled sophomore senator Janko Tipsarevic on Tuesday and finally ended David Ferrer's eleven-match win streak earlier today. He still has one more round robin to go, of course, facing his Basel vanquisher Juan Martin Del Potro on Saturday, but even with a guaranteed spot on Sunday, I wouldn't expect him to give anything less than his all it that match.

The other spot will come down to either Ferrer or Del Potro, both of whom have had solid fall runs this year. Their two-plus hour match on Tuesday ultimately went in the Spaniard's favor, and after quietly winning two titles since the U.S. Open it seems only fair that he's so close to making another trip to the London semis. But DelPo just needs to repeat his win over Federer in Switzerland to keep that from happening -- and while the Argentine is 1-6 against the defending champ, he did take a two-set lead over the veteran in Roland Garros and very nearly defeated him at the Olympics. This spot, it seems, is hardly decided, and I really can't think of two people more deserving of the chance to earn it.

Only Janko Tipsarevic is wholly left out of contention after two rounds of play in London. He's been sick, yes -- since retiring from his quarterfinal against Jerzy Janowicz last week in Paris, he was crushed by Federer in his first match at the World Tour Final and lost the opening six games to Del Potro before finally getting on the board today. I can't say I'm too disappointed -- Tipsy lost himself a legion of fans after some controversial comments he made this summer, and while that certainly wouldn't have affected his play, in this day and age it certainly cost him some of the popular vote.

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So while [most of] the votes have been tallied on this side of the Atlantic, there is still some more campaigning left to go in London, and after the handful of matches we've seen already it certainly looks like the most experienced have the advantage. Still we can't quite rule out an October surprise, even if it comes in the early days of November -- all we can know for certain is that the eventual winner will usher in the new year as the man to beat. And if he can continue to play with the power it'll take him to win this title, the future of this sport looks very bright indeed.

Mean Reversion

It's a common phenomenon of statistics -- day-to-day events can deviate from a trend, sometimes very drastically, but eventually, over time things go back to normal, and the trend is resumed, almost as if nothing changed.

The past two years have felt a bit like an aberration in men's tennis, as the man we've come to expect to dominate the sport has taken a spot on the sidelines as younger upstarts stole the show. But this week's action in London brought us all back down to earth, and put Roger Federer back on top.

The long-time world #1 came to the year-end championships with his lowest ranking since 2003, but he was riding a solid streak during the fall that brought with it titles in Basel and Paris. He dominated his round robin matches earlier in the week, dropping sets here and there but handing Rafael Nadal, last year's runner-up, a one-sided defeat in which the Spaniard only won three games. Against David Ferrer in the semis, he needed less than ninety minutes to take out the 2007 Masters Cup finalist.

In Sunday's final he took on the man who's come to be his new nemesis this year. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga staged one of the biggest upsets of the year, when he came back from two sets down to take out Federer in the Wimbledon quarters and repeated the win a few weeks later in Montreal. He'd lost their most recent meetings, but made a valiant stand post-U.S. Open with two titles and a Master's final of his own. In the round robins the Frenchman was able to make up for a three-set loss to Roger with wins over Mardy Fish and Rafael Nadal and exacted revenge over Tomas Berdych in the semis for his Beijing loss. The win gave him entry to his first World Tour Final championship match -- not bad for what was just his second appearance at the year-ending event.

In Sunday's final both men came out on fire, but for the first half of the opening set at least, it seemed Tsonga was the stronger one, dropping just a handful of points on his serve. But in the eighth game, Federer built up a 0-40 lead and converted the only break chance of the set. The Swiss built up a 4-2 lead in the second and had a few chances to get an insurance break, when things turned around -- Tsonga denied Fed the chance to serve out the championship and forced a tiebreak. He came back from a 2-5 deficit and saved match point, finally winning the set and forcing a decider.

Things stayed close in the third to start, but the stats favored the sixteen-time Grand Slam champion. Federer lost just one point on his first serve, three on serve in total. He made a bigger dent on return, too, converting his third break chance of the set and finally closing out the match in just under two-and-a-half hours.

The win brought Roger his record sixth year-end championship, sending him ahead of both Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras in total titles. And maybe more importantly, it reminded us all he's still a real contender for the big titles in 2012 -- despite what we may have been taught the last few years. It's clear Roger Federer's career is far from over, as his run over the last several months proves, and with the year culminating in his biggest trophy of the season, it might mean his trend is on course for quite some time.

What a Way to End!

It's not very often that the top seeds in the men's draw of a tournament do not make it through to the end, especially when all the top seeds are entered. In fact, at least three -- and often all four -- of the players in the semifinals of the last three Grand Slams ranked at the top of their quarters of the bracket. We've become accustomed to seeing the best beat the best under the toughest circumstances, so we should expect that to continue, even at the year-end championships.

But something strange happened this week in London. World #3 Andy Murray withdrew after losing his first match Monday, French Open champion Rafael Nadal pulled out a tough win against Mardy Fish and then lost two in a row to end his hopes of that maiden year-end title, and then Novak Djokovic, almost unbeatable for the first nine months of the year, dropped his first match ever to countryman Janko Tipsarevic -- the wildcard entry after Murray's withdrawal -- earlier today, being stopped short of the semis for the first time all year*.

So that leaves a somewhat motley crew in the semis of this years ATP Championships. Roger Federer, five times a winner, is the clear favorite. Though he lost sets to both Fish and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga during the round robins, he's been loss-less since the U.S. Open semis, with titles in Basel and Paris to his name. It's quite a turnaround for a man who fell to his lowest ranking since 2003 and went oh-for-four at the Majors this year. For what's ostensibly his least prolific year in quite some time, he might just pull momentum squarely onto his side.

But there are some formidable opponents in his way. David Ferrer will meet Roger in the semis after winning his first five sets in London. He ended up losing earlier today to Tomas Berdych, but the Spaniard, ranked #5 in the world, was relentless against Murray and Djokovic earlier in the week. He's never beaten Federer, only taken one set off him on hardcourts, but Ferrer made the finals at the Tennis Masters Cup in 2007 and has been relentless this week. It might be a harder fought semi than we expect.

In the second semifinal Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will try to make his fourth final since the U.S. Open. The Frenchman has had a more-than-solid autumn, and with wins over Nadal and Fish this week, he's improved his previously mediocre record versus top ten players. He didn't make it out of the round robins in his last appearance at the Championships in 2008, and with the run he's had over the last few months, it sure looks like he can go one better this time.

But he'll have to face Tomas Berdych in Saturday's semi, a man who came back from the brink a few times in London. After enduring a tough defeat by Novak Djokovic on Monday, he found himself in an early hole two days later against wildcard Tipsarevic, a man against whom he had a 1-4 record. Not only did he pull off that win, he repeated the rally today against Ferrer, whom he hadn't defeated since Hamburg in 2005. The Czech has also saved his best play for late in the year, having won a title in Beijing where he incidentally beat Tsonga in the semis, so there's no reason to believe he won't put up a fight again.

It's been quite a reversal of what we've come to expect this year -- the only two men to have won Majors in 2011 won't be fighting for the final title of the year. But for the players left, this is exactly the way they wanted to finish the season, and if they can last just a few matches longer, they'll finally reap that ultimate reward.

* Djokovic withdrew from the quarterfinals in Paris, but did not actually lose a match that tournament.

Not Exactly What You'd Expect

The first set of round robin matches is in the books at this year's World Tour Finals in London, and though we are far from deciding who will take home the prize in the end, the surprises -- and the surprising battles -- we've seen so far make choosing the champion this early a largely futile task.

In a rematch of last week's final in Paris -- and a couple other matches this year -- Roger Federer took on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the first singles match of the week. He got off to a quick start, taking the first set while only dropping three points on serve, but the Frenchman wholly reversed the score in the second, losing just two points himself. They kept things close in the decider, holding serve for the first nine games before Tsonga fell to 0-40 in the tenth. Federer failed to convert his first match point, but he was ultimately too much for the sixth seed. After just under ninety minutes, albeit through a bit of a scare, Federer had extended his win streak to thirteen consecutive matches since the U.S. Open and gave himself a further leg up on his competitors.

Rafael Nadal had a slightly tougher time of it on Sunday. Last year's runner-up took on first-time finalist Mardy Fish, and broke the American in the first game of the match. But, like Tsonga before him, Fish got the lead in the second and though he failed to convert break chances on Rafa's serve, he was eventually able to serve out the set and force a third. That's when things got exciting, though -- Nadal broke again early, but Fish pulled back even; Fish got his own lead, but failed to consolidate. After almost three hours of play, the two were pushed to a tiebreak, where the former #1 took control. In a match that ended near midnight, Nadal was the ultimate winner, staying in the top half of his group -- at least for now.

Monday's singles action kicked off with the biggest shock of the tournament so far. Third seeded Andy Murray, a winner of three titles since the U.S. Open, took on David Ferrer, who hadn't captured a trophy since Acapulco in February. The Spaniard, who'd lost his last four matches to Murray, found himself in an early deficit this morning but quickly pulled back even. Though both players had plenty of chances to cause damage on his return games, it was Ferrer who took advantage again to close out the set. Murray was again the aggressor early in the second, but the pair traded breaks throughout with the fifth seed ultimately denying the Brit a tiebreak and notching the win -- his first on a hardcourt, and the first real upset in London.

We were almost treated to another surprise when world #1 Novak Djokovic took on second-time final qualifier Tomas Berdych in Monday's second match. The erstwhile Wimbledon runner-up built a 3-0 lead on the Serb early and held on long enough to take the first set. The Czech's quality of play dropped a bit in the second, getting fewer than half of his first serves in, but got the break in the decider and a 4-2 lead. But Djokovic, who'd only lost one match to a player out of the top five all year, immediately broke back. Berdych earned himself a pair of match points a few games later, but both were rejected. In the tiebreak, Nole took control early and finally closed it out after more than two-and-a-half hours of play.

So there was only one true upset early in this year's World Tour Final, but even the favorites were put through the ringer for their first wins. It just goes to show that pretty much any of these guys is a real contender for the title, and with a lot of round robin bouts still left to go, there's plenty of room for things to turn around -- and quickly.

London Calling

This year's field at the ATP Championships is an interesting mix. Peppered with a mix of veterans and newbies -- relative or otherwise -- and plagued by injury, fatigue and some recent unexpected results, it might be harder to pick a favorite that you'd think. And it might open some holes just big enough to sneak through.

Group A
The first group of round robin matches is headlined by world #1 Novak Djokovic, who comes to London with a two-tournament (three, if you count the Davis Cup semis) losing streak -- something he hasn't had at any other time this year. He continues to struggle with a shoulder injury, and likely exhaustion, but he boasts the only winning record against the others in his group, and as the winner here three years ago, he certainly has the most experience.

For his first round robin match, Nole will play Tomas Berdych, appearing in London for the second straight time. The Czech, who really broke out in 2010, wasn't able to defend a lot of his points in the first half of the year, but picked the perfect time to play well again. He took the title in Beijing and beat three tough players to make the Paris semis. He's lost more than twice as many matches as he's won against the group, but if he's able to get an early jump on his opponents, he could cause damage.

Andy Murray had been riding one of the most successful streaks post-U.S. Open, winning three titles in Asia before losing to Berdych at the Paris Masters. Somewhat surprisingly, he has losing records against two of his three round robin groupies, but recent wins over Nole and his first opponent David Ferrer should give him confidence this week.

Ferrer can't be counted out, though. The veteran Spaniard is playing his third World Tour Final -- he was runner-up to Roger Federer in 2007 -- and has a fairly decent record against the guys he plays early this year. He hasn't won against any of these guys this year, but as one of the few in the field who hasn't been nursing injuries or illness the last few months, he could very well catch someone off guard.

Group B
Group B in London may be slightly more stacked with experience this year, but it's no less impenetrable. World #2 Rafael Nadal is the top seed, but he comes with significantly less momentum than he had this time last year. He hasn't won a title since Roland Garros and lost the last two finals he made. He pulled out of Paris to prep for this event, so hopefully he'll be well-rested, but with some tough challengers to contend with, it won't be smooth sailing.

Mardy Fish, playing in the post-season for the first time in his career, will open against Rafa. He'll be the underdog in London, for sure, but has notched some big upsets over the last two years -- including a win over Nadal in Cincinnati in August -- that should remind opponents he should not be overlooked. But his health remains a question mark -- a hamstring pull forced him to retire after one game in his first match in Basel and he wasn't able to hold on to a lead against Juan Monaco in Paris. It would be a shame if injury forced him to squander this opportunity, though, so I'm hoping the last week and a half gave him ample time to recover.

Defending champion Roger Federer is also in this group, and though he's fallen a few spots from the top he's having the most successful streak of anyone else in the field. Fresh off titles in Basel and Paris, he has a chance to prevent his least prolific year since 2002. Not counting Nadal, he has dominated his group-mates and might be in the perfect position to make a play for his record sixth championship.

But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who Roger's already played six times this year, might have something to say about that. The Frenchman, in just his second World Tour Final -- his first since 2008, staged a stunning comeback from two sets down to Federer in the Wimbledon quarters and repeated the win in Montreal about a month later. He's had a good fall, winning titles in Vienna and Metz, and though he lost in the Paris finals, he's arguably playing some of his best ball these days. He might be able to cause some real damage in his half of the draw.

With just a few days left before the first balls are struck at the year-end championships, players don't have a lot of time left to prepare. But even the biggest underdog should know everyone out there is beatable. And the one who's able to put the first dent in the field's armor could walk away with something huge.

WTF?

It's somewhat fitting that the World Tour Final championship has the initials it does -- so often in recent years the one to hoist the year-end tournament trophy over his head may not have been the one who's had the most successful year in the pros. That may be true this year as well, but that doesn't make Roger Federer's three set victory over long-time rival Rafael Nadal any less meaningful.

It had been an up-and-down year for the former world #1 and four-time winner of the Barclays event. Though he began by winning the Australian Open in fairly routine fashion, he had some interesting results after that. He lost early in Indian Wells to Marcos Baghdatis and then again in Miami to rising star Tomas Berdych. His twenty-three straight Major semi streak came to a crashing halt at the French Open and he failed to defend his Wimbledon crown with another quarterfinal loss. And, of course, a classic match against Novak Djokovic in New York kept him out of the U.S. Open finals -- making this his least successful Grand Slam year since 2003.

So that's the down part.

Since New York, however, it's been a straight line up -- Roger made the finals in Shanghai and then won titles in Stockholm and Basel. A semifinal run at the Paris Masters brought him to 16-2 during his fall season, not bad for a man who had been only 44-11 for the first nine months of the year. He came to London with a satchel full of momentum that it didn't seem anyone could stop.

Rightly so, it ended up being Rafael Nadal who would try to stop him. Nadal's year has been almost a mirror image of Fed's, beginning with a retirement in the Melbourne quarters and a drop out of the top three, but followed by a perfect clay court season, successful reclamation of titles at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and a miraculous run to the trophy in New York. Seven titles, three Slams, and only one finish earlier than a quarterfinal helped him lock in the year-end #1 for the second time in his career. After surviving a tough match on Saturday, Nadal had more than earned the right to play in his first ever World Tour Final.

Now when you look at the head-to-head record for these two men, you might think Nadal had the advantage. He had, after all, won fourteen of the pair's twenty-one meetings. He'd won six of their last seven matches, all in the last three years, and even held a respectable three-all score on hardcourts. Still I, and many of the commentators during today's final, gave Roger the edge.

He needed it more.

Nearing thirty years of age, and coming off such a roller coaster of a year, ending 2010 with a win in London would do loads for his confidence, loads for the future of his career. And from the start of the match, Federer played like he knew just what was on the line. He opened the match by holding at love, won every one of his first serve points in the first set, and converted a break point at 4-3 for the chance to serve out the opener. Nadal got and held on to the early lead in the second, but as true champions must, Roger raised his level of play in the decider, allowing only five points on his serve and breaking Rafa twice to seal up the win in short order.



Federer may not have put together the best year on Tour, but the way he's played in the past weeks proves that, not only does he deserve this title, but that he doesn't plan on going anywhere in the New Year. And if you're a little upset about the outcome of today's match -- as I, admittedly, am a bit -- both men's play shows something else.

We're sure to see a lot more of their always-inspiring battles in the year(s) to come.

The Final Four

Well it sure has been a crazy year, hasn't it?

So many upsets, so many shockers, so many surprises.

But here we are, with only two days left of pro Tour action, and suddenly everything seems right with the world. After six days of battling through the toughest opponents in the game, the four men left standing at the World Tour Finals are those who've been the most prolific champions in the past few years.

The first semi match on Saturday pits two men against each other who, despite their impressive resumés, have never reached the finals at the year-end championships. World #1 Rafael Nadal will face Andy Murray, a man who's beaten him in two of the three matches they've played this year. The Brit is clearly more comfortable on this surface and has the support of his hometown crowd, but Nadal has been unstoppable in his last three matches, more than making up for his dismal performance in London last year. It should be an exciting match, as so many of the match-ups between these two are, and while Murray might be the favorite given the circumstances, Rafa has a bit of a motivating factor that you just cannot ignore.



Four-time champion Roger Federer might just be waiting in the finals, but he still has a semi of his own to win. After sweeping his three round robin matches he returns to the final four for the eighth time in his career. He'll meet 2008 champ Novak Djokovic in the battle of former winners, both trying to regain glory. Of course Roger has the head-to-head edge over the Serb, but Nole does have that one amazing win at the U.S. Open to give him some hope. And while I'm sure the fans are hoping he doesn't again prevent the match everyone wants to see, you certainly can't count him out.



With fifteen titles between them this year, it's hard to argue that anyone else should be playing these last few matches of the year, so it's certainly nice to see all their hard work pay off. As for who stands the best chance of winning the whole thing, well you probably have to give the odds to the men who've been there before -- but I sure have learned better than to count anybody out!

Off and Running

With two days of play in the books, everyone's had a chance to get their feet wet in London, and while we haven't had any major surprises yet, there sure has been some excitement.

Andy Murray was the first out the gate for Group B and, looking dapper in argyle, he downed higher-seeded Robin Soderling in straight sets. Admittedly, I'd expected a bigger fight from the recent Masters winner, but the Brit was quick to show he would not be easily pushed aside. A semifinalist at the World Tour Championships in 2008, he's looking to do even better this year, and if his fairly one-sided, hour-long win is any indication, his chances are good.

Of course, he's in the same group as four-time winner Roger Federer, who was equally impressive in his opening round robin -- he only dropped five games against David Ferrer to extend his record against the Spaniard to 11-0. And though Fed is probably the favorite to win the whole thing, when he meets Murray on Tuesday, you know there will be sparks flying.

In the other half of the draw, Novak Djokovic kicked of Group A action by displaying some of the magic that got him to the finals of this year's U.S. Open. He withstood seven aces from first-time finalist Tomas Berdych and didn't allow a single break opportunity in their ninety minutes of play. He capitalized on weak second serving and pushed the Wimbledon finalist to 3-10 since New York. Djokovic is clearly taking advantage of his comfort on the hardcourts of London.

The only man -- well, the only favorite -- who's had any trouble in his opener was top seeded Rafael Nadal. After losing all three of his round robins last year in London, he was certainly out for revenge this year. Against Andy Roddick, a man who has a decent record against the world #1 on the surface, he found himself down a set early before evening the score with a second set breaker. He spent more than two and a half hours on the court before getting the win, and though he's not technically in a hole yet, he might have a tougher time than we originally anticipated.

Sure, we've only really just begun to see these men fight for the championship, so anything still can happen. But if these early matches have shown us anything, it's that the favorites are out and fighting, and that maybe a couple underdogs might be able to squeak through.