Fed Cup Follies

Fed Cup is -- and Davis Cup used to be, though I'm not so familiar with the new format and don't really have enough evidence to say the statement does or does not stand anymore -- always a little strange. With each round often taking place right after the Majors, it often surprises me how many of the sport's top player show up for their countries after a grueling fortnight (though, in many cases, the athletes probably played much less at the Slams than they'd hoped). And maybe it's just because of that timeline that we see such interesting and unexpected results at these events, and this year was no different.

Some of the ties were runaways -- Germany blanked Brazil, winning all three of their singles and their only doubles rubber, and Elise Mertens lived up to her potential to help Belgium advance over Kazakhstan -- but even then there were surprises. Belinda Bencic was stunned by world #185 Leylah Fernandez, but Jil Teichmann was able to pull out the big guns for Switzerland and pull them out against a Bianca Andreescu-less Canada (the defending U.S. Open champ was slated to play doubles, but didn't have to take the court). And two-time Slam winner Naomi Osaka committed fifty errors against upstart Sara Sorribes Tormo, while veteran and soon-to-be-retiree Carla Suarez Navarro was surgical in her two wins, lifting Spain above Japan, 3-1.

But the more interesting results came in the closer ties. Russia was surprisingly challenged by Romania, who was playing without Simona Halep -- while early 2020 standout Ekaterina Alexandrova managed wins in her singles matches, world #38 Veronika Kudermetova was upset in both of her rubbers. Russia eked out the win in doubles in order to advance. The Netherlands, on the other hand, wasn't able to capitalize on the success of their top star -- while world #8 Kiki Bertens was able to win on her own, beating a recently struggling Aryna Sabalenka on day two, the Belorussian doubles specialist was able to rally with partner Aliaksandra Sasnovich to clinch the decider.

Of course, though, all eyes were on the U.S., which brought some serious firepower to their tie: newly-minted Melbourne champion Sofia Kenin, perennial heavyweight Serena Williams, rising star Alison Riske, and everyone's favorite teen Coco Gauff. They were the clear favorites against Latvia and got off to a strong start on Friday with Kenin easing past former world #11 Anastasija Sevastova and Serena eking out a two-tiebreak victory over 2017 French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko (who, by the way hasn't won a single main draw match at Roland Garros outside that breakout year). But things turned around sharply Saturday as both Americans lost their reverse matches, Williams getting stunned by Sevastova in three sets for her first ever Fed Cup singles defeat. But as is so often the case, Kenin had to get right back to work for her third match in two days, teaming up with her Australian Open doubles partner Bethanie Mattek-Sands to decide the win.

Do the results this weekend give a broader picture of the state of these players' games? Maybe. Kenin's played a lot of ball this year, so it makes sense she might be a little exhausted. On the other hand, I'm a little surprised to see Serena's less-than-dominating performance and Osaka's messy match. As for the players who stood out -- Alexandrova's solid results certainly suggest her ranking is only climbing from here, while Bertens can certainly use her wins to shore up her season. We'll get a better idea of where everyone stands in the next few weeks, of course. And hopefully, by the time they're back on court for their countries in a couple month's time, hopefully they'll come out swinging.

A Quest for Redemption

It's been a pretty exciting first month of the season, but the New Year hasn't been happy for everyone. A couple players have struggled to put up the kinds of results we've come to expect from them, but some solid results this week could turn all that around.

It's been a long time since Anastasija Sevastova has done anything big on the tennis court, and the 2010 Estoril champion has fallen well down the rankings over the last few years. After making the fourth round in Melbourne two years ago, she failed to make it past her opener there this time around and had to qualify for the main draw in Pattaya City. She sneaked out a win over rising star Heather Watson on Thursday to make her first quarterfinal since Luxembourg in 2011. She's got nothing but seeds left in her half of the draw, so it won't be easy for her to progress farther, but if the young Latvian can find her game there's no reason to believe she can't get in another win or two.

Elena Vesnina may have something to say about that though -- the decorated doubles star is having quite the season so far. Long a member of the middle tier in this sport, the Russian had lost all six of the finals she'd contested before this year, but changed her luck in Hobart early in the month and then beat Varvara Lepchenko and Roberta Vinci on her way to the Australian Open fourth round. The run helped her climb to #33 in the world, still off a career high, but with some of the most consistent results we've seen from her in a while. Vesnina hasn't faced another seeded player so far in Thailand, but could be tested tomorrow by world #15 Maria Kirilenko in the quarters. Her compatriot has won all three of their previous meetings, but Vesnina has kept things close in the past -- if she can harness her momentum it might bode well for her the rest of this week.

Sabine Lisicki has actually fallen below Vesnina in the rankings -- surprising, considering this time last year we were waiting for her to finally break the top ten. But a string of injuries and disappointing results, including a first round loss in Melbourne, pushed her out of the top fifty. She's still seeded fifth in Pattaya, though, and with fairly routine wins over her first two opponents this week it looks like she might be ready to stage a comeback. It should be smooth sailing for her, too -- the highest ranked player left in her half is world #60 Ayumi Morita -- so if she stays focused and healthy this could be her chance to make a move.

There are plenty players looking to relaunch their careers over in Paris as well. Lucie Safarova is just a hair off her career high ranking, but with her only win of the year coming over a sub-hundred player, it seems she's lost a little of that luster. She's struggled so far this week too, dropping sets to both Lourdes Dominguez Lino and Alize Cornet, but now in the quarters she has a chance to shine. She next faces Lucky Loser Kiki Bertens, one of last year's hottest newcomers who's already beaten a tough Tamira Paszek and fourth-seeded Dominika Cibulkova at the GDF Suez. Bertens actually won the pair's only other meeting last year at Wimbledon, so the Czech is going to have to bring her A-Game if she wants to turn the tables on her opponent. But if she does, it could do wonders for her confidence the rest of the year.

Marion Bartoli hasn't really fallen too far out of the spotlight, but after just missing her chance to qualify for Istanbul last year, she hasn't beaten a player in the top fifty yet this season -- she suffered an easy defeat in the quarters at the hands of Shenzhen finalist Klara Zakopalova to start the year and then lost a struggle to Melbourne Cinderella Ekaterina Makarova a few weeks later. So far in her homeland, the Frenchwoman's been on point -- after a tight first set, she rolled over Christina McHale to set up a third round against Hobart finalist Mona Barthel. The German beat Bartoli last April in Stuttgart, pretty easily in fact, so the on-paper favorite cannot let history get in her way -- if she's able to play her game, there's no reason she can't avenge that loss.

Petra Kvitova may have a bit more to prove. The one-time Wimbledon champion has been a fixture in the top ten for the past eighteen months or so, but last year she had been a stone's throw from grabbing the #1 spot. That goal is a bit further away these days, and after putting together a 2-3 record to start the season, it may have gotten a little more remote. The 2011 winner in Paris could have a tough time reclaiming the title -- she was challenged somewhat in her opener by Stefanie Voegele, and will meet quickly rising Kristina Mladenovic next. The Czech has won the pair's only previous meeting, at this event actually, but that was a full five years ago, and her opponent has posted some solid results herself, besting both Julia Goerges and Yanina Wickmayer on her way to the quarters. If Kvitova is going to make another play for this crown -- and turn her year around -- she'll need to keep her cool in tomorrow's match and play ball like she hasn't played yet this season.

It's not really fair to say Sara Errani hasn't followed up on her breakout season from 2012 -- but despite winning the doubles title in Melbourne she nevertheless dropped a chunk of ranking points after losing in the first round of the Australian Open singles draw. She's the top seed in Paris this week, though, so will want to step up her game and with a quarterfinal match against the woman who ousted her two weeks ago, the pressure will be on. Carla Suarrez Navarro holds a dead-even 3-3 record against the Italian, and after her win Down Under and a victory over Klara Zakopalova here, she might have the confidence to take the lead. But Errani has been a fighter on all surfaces the past year, and if she's on her game should be able to stop the bleeding -- and that win could put her season back on the right track.

All these ladies have a chance to redeem themselves over the next few days -- some get that opportunity against the very same players who stopped them in their tracks. Whether they achieve their goals or not could have a big impact on what the rest of their seasons look like and whether or not momentum stays on their side. Their years may not have gotten off to the start they wanted, but their upcoming performances might just be what it takes to turn all that around.

The Turnarounds

There's nothing worse than seeing a promising talent burn out after having a burst of success.

It happens a lot, of course -- former #1 Dinara Safina's injuries have taken her out of the game indefinitely and Sam Querrey, once considered the future of American tennis, has been having only moderate success on the Challengers' Tour since elbow surgery took him out of the game for a while. But there is sometimes light at the end of the tunnel, and a couple players are trying to prove their strong starts to the year were no fluke.

Many of the top women in the sport made their way over to Luxembourg this week, but some of the best results have come from the non-seeded players. Veteran Alberta Brianti won her first ever title days after her thirty-first birthday in April, and though she's had a couple nice victories after that -- a suddenly resurgent Flavia Pennetta in Carlsbad, sky-rocketing Sabine Lisicki in Linz -- she hasn't been able to gain the same traction she had in the spring. But after her first round victory over Anna Tatishvili this week, she might be swinging strong again. She'll have to get past top seed and world #3 Victoria Azarenka to go any further here, but her strong start could give her the confidence she needs.

Then there's Anastasija Sevastova, whose surprise run to the fourth round of the Australian Open helped her climb to a career high ranking of #36 in the world in January. She's only won eight matches since, falling in twelve first rounds. Now ranked out of the top hundred, the Latvian seems to be getting her game back in order in Luxembourg. She dealt a one-sided defeat to Pennetta in her opener and earlier today was similarly impressive against rising star Simona Halep, winning more than seventy percent of her first serves and breaking the Romanian six times. She'll have to raise her game even more against her next opponent, Stuttgart champion Julia Goerges, but the German has also been off her game a bit recently and hasn't won more than two matches at an event since April. If Sevastova takes charge, she could make a big impact here.

Over in Stockholm, the field is led by world #10 Gael Monfils, but I've got my eye on some players a little further down the rankings. Ivan Dodig erupted onto the scene to start the year, winning a title in Zagreb and making the finals in 's-Hertogenbosch. He was also the only player to take a set off Novak Djokovic during his Australian Open run. He's gone 4-10 since mid-June, though, and though he remains the seventh seed in Sweden he's fallen far out of the spotlight. But the Croat has a chance to change that this week -- after a tough win over Adrian Mannarino he will meet former world #3 David Nalbandian for a spot in the quarters later today. Dodig lost their previous meeting a few weeks back, but he is the on-paper favorite here, and will want to reverse that result.

More impressive has been the return of my dear James Blake in Stockholm. After falling way out of the top hundred, he's been plodding his way through the Challengers' Tour all year, winning titles in Winnetka and Sarasota. He's still been trophy-less on the pro circuit for over four years, but back at #69, he's playing solid ball again. Yesterday Blake pulled off his biggest win in years as he upset second seed 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets. It's probably too soon to call the bracket wide open for the American -- he'll face the winner of Dodig/Nalbandian next -- but the upcoming challenges are much less intimidating than the one he's already overcome.

With only a few weeks left in the season, there's never been a better time for these players to turn their years -- or careers -- around. There's no telling yet how long their streaks will last this week, but their wins so far sure show they've still got what it takes to make a dent in their draws.

And if they play up to their potential, it could change things dramatically in the months to come.

Time to Shine

The beauty of a boutique tournament like Estoril is that a few unknown players really have a chance to advance well into a bracket without the concern of a major force stopping them early. The problem with a boutique tournament like Estoril is that every now and then one of those major forces finds his way into the draw and threatens to mess up everything for everyone else.

And that's almost what happened this year, when top-ranked and top-seeded Roger Federer entered the fray. After a series of early upsets since winning the Australian Open title in January -- he hadn't made a quarterfinal since -- it must have looked promising when no other player in the top twenty made the first round. Roger began the tournament as he should have, beating Bjorn Phau in straight sets and being challenged slightly by Arnaud Clement in the third round, needing a first set tiebreak before eventually succeeding.

He must also, surely, have felt comfortable against Albert Montanes in his semifinal match. The two had met three times before, with Roger only ceding one set at Roland Garros in 2008 -- he proceeded to win the next two sets, one and zero. The twenty-nine year old Spaniard is actually strong on clay, as he's won all three of his titles on the surface, including Estoril last year, but he had lost in the opening round of the last two tournaments he's played. It should have been an easy match for King Fed.

But Montanes was determined to support the major selling point of these tournaments -- he would not be intimidated by the multiple record-holding Federer. After rain delayed their match for more than two hours, the Montanes got the early break and never looked back. After less than ninety minutes, the world #34 had handed the long-time #1 his fourth big upset of the season.

In the finals he met Frederico Gil, another man who benefited from a boutique draw. After taking out sixth-seed (and forty-eighth ranked) Florian Mayer in the first round he had an easy road to the finals, challenged again only by fifth-seeded Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the semis. Gil, the #2 player from Portugal -- both are ranked in the triple digits -- had never played in a final before. Estoril certainly was turning out to be a great opportunity for him as well.

Montanes started the championship match swinging, undaunted by the man he'd beaten last year in Casablanca. He was serving for the trophy in the second set when Gil finally got a break back to even things up. The two traded serves again to force a tiebreak which Frederico ultimately won, pushing the game to a deciding third.

Gil began the third set by taking two service games away from his opponent, but Montanes won three games in a row to get back on serve. Finally after more than two and a half hours of play, he broke Gil again to capture his fourth career title, eventually cementing himself as a real force on the dirt -- maybe not quite as strong as Rafael Nadal, but surely someone not to be ignored.

Incidentally, a similar pattern played out on the women's side in Estoril. Twenty-year-old Anastasija Sevastova opened her run by upsetting top-seeded Agnes Szavay in the first round while her final opponent Arantxa Parra Santonja waited a bit longer before dismissed #2 Sorana Cirstea in the semis. The two, both ranked in the low double-digits had never played in a final before, so clearly they were taking advantage of the opportunity in Portugal.

There was plenty of sloppy serving on both sides of the net on Saturday -- the Latvian got just over half of her first attempts in, and Arantxa won forty percent of her second attempts. But Sevastova was able to break her opponent six times and held on for the win in about seventy minutes of play.



So now, just two weeks away from the start of the French Open, we have a slew of new players to keep in mind. While it's probably premature to call any of them favorites to win the Major, they certainly could cause more than a little turmoil in the draws. After all, if they could pull off upsets like these in Paris, it doesn't look like anyone is safe.