Vets vs. Newbies

It's become a bit of a contest between old and new in Munich -- with top seeds getting upset throughout the week, we're left with a somewhat unusual crop of semifinalists. A couple have been decorated time and again while the others are fairly new to the winner's circle -- if they've been there at all. And as action winds down we might just find out if the seasoned pros are ready to give up the reins to young guns.

Top seeded Janko Tipsarevic ceded his spot in the final four earlier today when world #69 Daniel Brands notched his first top-ten win in nearly three years. The German had already delivered some solid results this year, reaching the quarters in Dubai and the semis in Doha, but this run might be the most impressive. He's made the semis in Munich before -- back in 2009 he beat Potito Starace and Julien Benneteau to get here -- but with wins over the Serbian #2 and Gael Monfils before him, he's faced and bested his biggest competition here. He has played three three-setters in a row, though, and might be a little more spent than his next opponent, Phillipp Kohlschreiber. His compatriot, the defending champion in fact, is going for his fifth career title and his third at the BMW Open. He hasn't dropped a set yet this week and won the pair's only previous meeting, so history is on his side. But twenty-five year old Brands might just be ready to make a move into the sport's top tiers, and a trip to his first ATP final would certainly put him solidly on that road. If he's able to keep the momentum he's seemed to have all week he could just make the statement he's been waiting to make.

Ivan Dodig has made a statement here and there in the past, but after a string of first-round losses last year pushed him out of the top fifty, it's been a while since he said anything above a whisper. He's made some strides to turn things around this season, though, making the third round in Indian Wells and beating Alexandr Dolgopolov in Delray Beach. This week in Germany, the Croat beat 2011 champ Nikolay Davydenko to start, ousted countryman Marin Cilic in his opener and earlier today repeated his victory over fifth-seeded Dolgopolov in straight sets. His task only gets tougher from here, of course -- next up is uber-veteran Tommy Haas, who's somewhat surprisingly never won the title in his homeland. Haas was challenged early by on-the-rebound Ernests Gulbis, but needed less than an hour to dismiss fellow German Florian Mayer earlier today. He also won his only match against Dodig, actually ending the underdog's run in Delray, so if Ivan's going to make another final, he's going to have to come out swinging from the start.

Clearly the burden will be on the non-seeds to deliver on Saturday, but given their performances so far this week there's no reason to believe they're incapable of big things. But the veterans will be out to stop them short, and won't go down easy. Whether it's ultimately time for them to step aside and let the upstarts take over remains to be seen, but this weekend's battles might just be a turning point for one of these guy's careers.

The Turnarounds

There's nothing worse than seeing a promising talent burn out after having a burst of success.

It happens a lot, of course -- former #1 Dinara Safina's injuries have taken her out of the game indefinitely and Sam Querrey, once considered the future of American tennis, has been having only moderate success on the Challengers' Tour since elbow surgery took him out of the game for a while. But there is sometimes light at the end of the tunnel, and a couple players are trying to prove their strong starts to the year were no fluke.

Many of the top women in the sport made their way over to Luxembourg this week, but some of the best results have come from the non-seeded players. Veteran Alberta Brianti won her first ever title days after her thirty-first birthday in April, and though she's had a couple nice victories after that -- a suddenly resurgent Flavia Pennetta in Carlsbad, sky-rocketing Sabine Lisicki in Linz -- she hasn't been able to gain the same traction she had in the spring. But after her first round victory over Anna Tatishvili this week, she might be swinging strong again. She'll have to get past top seed and world #3 Victoria Azarenka to go any further here, but her strong start could give her the confidence she needs.

Then there's Anastasija Sevastova, whose surprise run to the fourth round of the Australian Open helped her climb to a career high ranking of #36 in the world in January. She's only won eight matches since, falling in twelve first rounds. Now ranked out of the top hundred, the Latvian seems to be getting her game back in order in Luxembourg. She dealt a one-sided defeat to Pennetta in her opener and earlier today was similarly impressive against rising star Simona Halep, winning more than seventy percent of her first serves and breaking the Romanian six times. She'll have to raise her game even more against her next opponent, Stuttgart champion Julia Goerges, but the German has also been off her game a bit recently and hasn't won more than two matches at an event since April. If Sevastova takes charge, she could make a big impact here.

Over in Stockholm, the field is led by world #10 Gael Monfils, but I've got my eye on some players a little further down the rankings. Ivan Dodig erupted onto the scene to start the year, winning a title in Zagreb and making the finals in 's-Hertogenbosch. He was also the only player to take a set off Novak Djokovic during his Australian Open run. He's gone 4-10 since mid-June, though, and though he remains the seventh seed in Sweden he's fallen far out of the spotlight. But the Croat has a chance to change that this week -- after a tough win over Adrian Mannarino he will meet former world #3 David Nalbandian for a spot in the quarters later today. Dodig lost their previous meeting a few weeks back, but he is the on-paper favorite here, and will want to reverse that result.

More impressive has been the return of my dear James Blake in Stockholm. After falling way out of the top hundred, he's been plodding his way through the Challengers' Tour all year, winning titles in Winnetka and Sarasota. He's still been trophy-less on the pro circuit for over four years, but back at #69, he's playing solid ball again. Yesterday Blake pulled off his biggest win in years as he upset second seed 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets. It's probably too soon to call the bracket wide open for the American -- he'll face the winner of Dodig/Nalbandian next -- but the upcoming challenges are much less intimidating than the one he's already overcome.

With only a few weeks left in the season, there's never been a better time for these players to turn their years -- or careers -- around. There's no telling yet how long their streaks will last this week, but their wins so far sure show they've still got what it takes to make a dent in their draws.

And if they play up to their potential, it could change things dramatically in the months to come.

Seize the Reins

Well things sure got interesting at the Rogers Cup the last couple days.

As many of the sport's top players make their first appearances on court since Wimbledon -- or longer -- it's understandable that they'd be a bit out of practice. But I'm not sure anyone expected the routs we've seen, and some of those left standing may have been given the chance of their lifetime.

They just need to capitalize.

Two-time U.S. Open champion Kim Cljisters has been most out of practice, struggling with various injuries since the spring. She was leading Jie Zheng by a set in Toronto when a stomach injury forced her to retire -- not the best result so close to New York. This is the one case, though, where the victor may not reap too many spoils. Even though the #2 seed is out, Zheng doesn't face any easier a road -- next up for her is Serena Williams who's already won a title since returning to the game a month ago and looks to be in as good a form as when she left. What could have been a firework-filled section of the draw has suddenly turned into a much tamer quarter.

Things are a bit different in the other half of the bracket. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki, who won this title in Montreal last year, was dealt a devastating blow after her first round bye. Roberta Vinci, sitting at a career-high ranking at twenty-eight years of age, remained the cooler player during the nearly two-hour match and scored her first win over a top-five player in eighteen tries. Already the holder of three titles this year, she's showing she's more than able to hit with the big girls, and in a third round date with spotty Ana Ivanovic sparks could fly. It won't be completely smooth sailing, but the Italian could very well take advantage.

The men in Montreal have told a similar story. Two-time defending champion Andy Murray had put together a surprisingly strong spring after some disappointing results to start the year. But he was no match for world #35 Kevin Anderson on Tuesday. The South African took advantage of weak serving and a bounty of errors to break the Brit four times in the match, notching the win in under seventy minutes. His next opponent, Stanislas Wawrinka, has won their only meeting over a year ago, but if he can play at the level we know he's capable of, we could be in for another upset.

Probably most surprising, though, was the result that came out of last night's late match between Rafael Nadal and Ivan Dodig. The recent #1 has made at least the quarters at the Rogers Cup the last four times he's played and has won his opening match at every tournament since 2008. He ran away with the first set but squandered a lead in the second, allowing Dodig to pull even. And after more than three hours it was the Croat holding his arms up in victory. The twenty-six year old could stand to take real advantage of this win too. After a strong start to the year, he's lost his last three first rounds, but momentum is now clearly on his side. If he's recovered sufficiently he should be able to get past Janko Tipsarevic -- himself an upset winner over Fernando Verdasco last night -- on Thursday and really take Toronto by storm.

As always, some of these players are better primed to seize the opportunity they've been dealt. Whether they can take advantage remains to be seen, but the way things have been going in the Great White North, they may never have had a better chance.

Davis Cup Preview: What to Watch

There's a lot at stake for the countries and players contesting the first round of Davis Cup this weekend -- national pride, vengeance for recent losses, validation of new coaches, to name a few. Some are bringing out the big guns while others will battle challenges from all sorts of elements.

And while the final rubber scores will of course ultimately determine the winners, there are a couple under-the-radar stories that could matter just as much, no matter what the outcome.

Serbia vs. India

Defending champions Serbia are riding pretty high these days, what with Novak Djokovic’s second Major title and Janko Tipsarevic’s run to the Delray Beach finals. They’re rounded out by tricky Viktor Troicki and a doubles extraordinaire Nenad Zimonjic. With such a stacked team I doubt they’ll have trouble advancing.

And while their prospects for this tie might be dim, I’ll be watching the Indian team closely – newly reunited Leander Paes and Mahesh Bhupathi made their way to the Australian Open finals in their first Slam together since 2002. And Rohan Bopanna, who’s established himself well in the paired discipline, has had some success on the singles side when playing for his country. It might be too much to ask for a win, but if they put up a fight, I’ll be happy.

Sweden vs. Russia

The Russians are the seeded team in this tie, but without their top player Mikhail Youzhny they could be headed for an early exit. Sweden may be resting its hopes on only one player, but if they’re going to put all their eggs in one basket, Robin Soderling is not a bad one to have.

The more interesting story here might be the return of Joachim Johansson, a one-time top-ten player who hasn’t played a lot of Tour matches the last few years. But the Swede, a semifinalist at the U.S. Open in 2004, is still young and powerful -- if he puts in a good showing we might see a lot more of him this season.

Czech Republic vs. Kazakhstan

The Czech’s suffered a close loss to Serbia in last year’s semifinals, so you know they’ll be out to prove something, and against a middle-of-the road Kazakh team they shouldn’t have too much trouble. But that doesn’t mean their star Tomas Berdych will be off the hook -- he's finally started putting together wins again, but he has a ton of points coming off in the next few months. If he doesn’t start performing up to his ranking soon, his top ten ranking may be pretty short-lived.

Argentina vs. Romania

The 2008 runners-up might be missing their theoretic top player in Juan Martin Del Potro, but they should still be heavily favored over the Romanians, whose best hope may be in relatively unknown doubles specialist Horia Tecau.

But a couple of Argentine veterans will be using this as a platform to prove they’re still around. David Nalbandian put up one of the most exciting first rounds at the Australian Open, but retired from the following match -- he'll need to prove he’s not too old to be a factor in the long matches. And thirty-one year old Juan Ignacio Chela made the semis in Costa Do Sauipe and the finals in Buenos Aires -- I'd love to see him show those were not just flukes and that he is capable of putting up even bigger fights.

Chile vs. U.S.

With new coach Jim Courier comes big expectations for the seeded U.S. team, but the players, recovering from sickness and injury might not be in the shape he’d hoped. Andy Roddick played well in Memphis, but withdrew from Delray with the flu while the often unstoppable Bryan brothers haven’t played since winning in Melbourne. Couple that with John Isner's failing to defend most of the points he racked up in the first two months of last year and things may not be as easy as it seems. They may have gotten a bit of a respite as their Chilean opponents boast no one ranked in the top 150, so this will be a good opportunity to test themselves in a relatively safe environment.

Belgium vs. Spain

The Spaniards suffered a surprisingly early exit at last year's Davis Cup, being blanked by France in the quarterfinals after winning the whole enchilada the prior two years. That could explain why they’re bringing their biggest weapons to face a fairly innocuous Belgian team.

There shouldn’t be too much drama in this match, but I’ll still be watching a few players closely. Rafael Nadal hasn’t seen any action since the Australian Open when he suffered a hamstring injury and Fernando Verdasco, who finally seemed to be turning his career back in the right direction, hasn’t won a match since that disappointing loss in the San Jose finals. If he’s not over that defeat, it could take a while before he regains any confidence.

Croatia vs. Germany

Croatia has built itself into a strong team too, but certain players have struggled of late. One of my personal favorites Marin Cilic had a tough start to the year and only recently began winning back-to-back matches again, while big serving Ivo Karlovic continues to out-ace opponents without ever breaking their serve.

It might be strange to say the Croats' best hope may lie with one of its least known players. World #57 Ivan Dodig is having a standout year, being the only player to take a set from Novak Djokovic in Australia and then following it up with his first career title in Zagreb. If he puts in a few wins on the homecourt, it could mean a changing of the guard for the country.

Austria vs. France

Last year's second place French team is missing some of its biggest stars with both Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga out of the mix, so it could be time for some new stars to shine. I’m not talking about Gilles Simon, who is admittedly clawing his way back up the ranks after being the leading athlete in the country just a few years back. Instead, I’ll be watching Michael Llodra who, at thirty years of age has just now established himself as a legitimate singles and doubles threat. If he puts up the kind of showing he did in 2010, it could be a long weekend for the Austrians.

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Clearly individual performances aren't the biggest concern during Davis Cup play, but certain team members certainly have a chance to shine during their ties. It might mean a turnaround in their careers or the establishment of a new streak of success. Either way, the opportunities could be enormous -- and they'll all have their entire countries rooting them on.

Homecourt Advantage

In most sports you often give the edge to the team playing on their own territory. It's not a guaranteed success, of course, but even the 2-14 Carolina Panthers scored both their wins in Charlotte.

The same is not always true in tennis -- the last Brit to win Wimbledon, after all, was Fred Perry back in 1936 -- but at some smaller tournaments, like those that took place over the last week, we saw a couple of hometown heroes get a chance to shine, and some made a real breakthrough.

Santiago Giraldo isn't from Chile, but his Colombia is not far away. And playing in a town that bears his name, I imagine the crowds were on his side at the Movistar Open. South Americans dominated the draw in Santiago with three Argentines and a Brazilian making the quarters along with Giraldo. But the twenty-three year old from Bogota pulled off upsets over Juan Ignacio Chela and Potito Starace to make his first ever championship match.

There he met Spain's Tommy Robredo, a man who'd racked up nine titles in his career but lost their only previous meeting at the Australian Open just last month. Robredo's been in something of a slump recently, so it wasn't out of the question to see the technical upset, but after he got off to a set lead in the match I began to lose hope. Giraldo came back to even the score and even got a break lead in the decider, but when he failed to serve it out Robredo didn't look back. He converted his second match point in the tiebreak, denying the ultimate championship to the Colombian, but at least giving him hope for his next attempt.

The South Africa Open in Johannesburg saw more than a few of its own stars pull off upsets. Wildcard Rik de Voest made the quarters while Izak Van Der Merwe won his first Tour level matches on his way to the semis. But it was fourth-seeded Kevin Anderson who ultimately made the biggest impression. I've often wondered why the strong server hasn't made more of a dent in the pros -- currently ranked at #59, he's hovered in the low double-digits for about a year. He gave Sam Querrey a run for the money in Los Angeles last summer and took revenge on him two weeks later in Toronto. Yet he hadn't really broken through main draws.

That is, until this week. The six-foot-eight former star at the University of Illinois rattled off fifty-three aces on his way to his second career final where he met Somdev Devvarman. After losing the first set to his college rival, Anderson rebounded to win the next two in about an hour more. The title was the first won by a South African since Wesley Moodie took Tokyo in 2005 and should push Kevin to a career-high ranking. Having now improved to a 8-3 record on the year, it could be his turn to crack into the top tiers of the sport.

A little further north in Croatia, many of the locals were stopped right out of the gate. Still the top two seeds reflected how strong the country has been in recent months -- two-time defending champ Marin Cilic and world #16 Ivan Ljubicic lead the pack, but were both defeated in the quarters. Instead compatriot Ivan Dodig, who broke into the top hundred at the end of last year, came out firing. The only man to take a set from Australian Open champ Novak Djokovic in Melbourne beat one seed after another in the city where he lives.

For his efforts, Dodig earned the right to meet world #61 Michael Berrer in his first Tour final. They'd never played each other before, but with five more years in the pros and a couple big wins of his own under his belt, the German was probably still the favorite. But Ivan was unstoppable from the start. At just six-feet tall, he was the shorter of the two, but fired off sixteen aces and won more than eighty percent of his first serves. He denied Berrer seven break chances and eventually won the match in straight sets, taking just over ninety minutes to capture his maiden trophy.



Of course the hometown edge benefits some more than others, but with these guys making a real statement on their own turf, there's really no telling what they'll be able to do in other stadiums.

And now that they have that added bit of confidence, I'm betting we'll see a lot more of all of them.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

I've been writing about numbers for almost fifteen years, and one thing I've learned is that you can make data say anything you want it to, depending on how you look at things -- and that doesn't make it any more predictive of an outcome.

And that's especially true in sports. How many times have you heard how Team A has never beaten Team B when trailing at the half, on the road, in January, when it's below forty degrees in Houston? Or that Player One has a perfect record against Player Two in games played in the southern hemisphere before noon Pacific Time? Add enough caveats -- no matter how ridiculous -- to an assumption, and you can make a case for any result.

Statistics certainly have the ability to skew our perception, and they don't always tell the true story of how a battle was fought. And all you have to do is look at a couple matches at this year's Australian Open. There are some simple incongruities -- David Nalbandian and Lleyton Hewitt actually scored an equal number of points in their almost-five hour slugfest, while Ivo Karlovic again found a way to lose a match when out-acing his opponent, forty-eight to ten. But it can get more complicated than that.

Dominika Cibulkova lost her third round to top-seeded Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets, but it was the teeny Slovak who came out the aggressor. She barreled off thirty-one winners against the world #1, who only scored eleven of her own. She was a little sloppy -- over forty unforced errors, almost four times Caro's -- but that's more an indication of the chances she took versus a highly favored opponent. While Wozniacki seemed content to knock balls back over the net, it was Cibulkova who came up with the risky, more imaginative play, and maybe should have won the match.

Robin Haase didn't last quite as long, but for the first half against veteran Andy Roddick, you might have thought you were witnessing an upset. The twenty-three year old Dutchman took control early, trapping his opponent at the net and allowing no break chances in the opening set. He won nearly eighty percent of his first serves and about half of Andy's. In the second he kept it close -- the two were equal on both winners and errors, and neither made a dent on the other's serve. When Roddick won that in a tiebreak, though, it was all over for Haase, and he dropped the next two sets in about an hour.

And then you have the surprising match between last year's runner-up Justine Henin and one-time French Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova. The Russian had a surprisingly poor 2-16 record against her third-round opponent over their eight-plus year history and had never beaten her at a Slam -- in fact her only two wins came in tight three setters. And as one of my friends pointed out, Henin had only lost at the Australian Open to players ranked -- either at the time or at some point -- #1 in the world, and Kuzey topped out at #2.

But it was Sveta who came out firing this time. Though she made slightly fewer errors and a handful more winners, she was cleaner when it counted. She stayed strong after losing a break-lead in the second set and after failing to serve it out. She saved set points and withstood faster serves, and after two hours, Kuznetsova was the one left standing. Maybe she is heading for the #1 ranking...

So what can we learn from all this? Well for one thing, numbers -- whether stats, scorelines or match length -- clearly don't tell the whole story. And for another, past performance is no indication of future results. That's not to say that keeping and monitoring such minute records doesn't have it's place -- but it certainly can't beat watching the darn games!