The Big Fight

Okay, I realize that most eyes will be trained on one particular bout in Vegas tonight, but the face-off between Pacquiao and Mayweather isn't the only one worth mentioning these days. And for a couple players contesting this weekend's championships, the opportunity is just as great.

Tomorrow's final in Munich pits two players who've had very different seasons so far against each other. Top seeded Andy Murray, fresh off his second final of the year in Miami, is back at #3 in the world and finally seems in contention again at the big events. Veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber, on the other hand, was struggling to win many matches at all -- he's lost three opening round matches, all to players outside the top fifty, and before this week had a losing record on the year. He's been able to turn things around this week though, taking out Bucharest runner-up Jiri Vesely in his first round and then notching an upset over David Goffin in the quarters. He'll certainly be the underdog against the Scot on Sunday, with his only win coming more than five years ago -- but he does, surprisingly, have a chance. He took a set off Murray a few weeks ago in Indian Wells, and pushed him for four long hours at Roland Garros just last year, barely losing 12-10 in the fifth. If he can find that game again, he just might be able to capitalize on this chance to turn his season around.

The German's run in his homeland may have been unexpected, but the draw in Estoril shook out even less predictably, with both top seeds falling in their opening rounds. Instead Richard Gasquet, a little quiet this year despite a title in Montpellier, took out an on-the-rebound Nicolas Almagro and finally ended the impressive win streak of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the semis. And young Australian Nick Kyrgios, this year's Cinderella in Melbourne, managed his way to the first ATP final of his career. He hasn't had to face any real challenge though -- both Feliciano Lopez and Gilles Muller were eliminated before he had to meet them -- so tomorrow's match will be his be the first test he has all week. And with the specter of his maiden trophy looming over him the pressure will surely be on -- but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come out on top this time, and there's no telling what that could lead to for the rest of his season.

There's a little more experience on the court in Istanbul, though, where world #2 Roger Federer will be going for his awe-inspiring eighty-fifth career title. Having already picked up two crowns this year, he's rebounded nicely from an early loss in Monte Carlo and, despite challenges from Daniel Gimeno Traver and even Challenger heavyweight Diego Schwartzman, made good on his top spot in Turkey. The bigger surprise happened in the bottom half of the draw where wholly under-appreciated Pablo Cuevas stunned second seed Grigor Dimitrov in Saturday's semi. The Uruguayan my be flying way under the radar, but he has won the last three finals he's contested, and with an impressive 10-4 record on clay this year, he might be more at home on this surface than his opponent. It's always a tough ask to try to beat Roger, of course, but Cuevas has been slowly making a name for himself too and might just have the motivation to pull off what would easily be the biggest win of his career.

The ladies, meanwhile, have already crowned their champions, but even these favorites were given some unexpected challenges. At the reinstated Prague Open the upsets started early and kept going all week long -- second seed Lucie Safarova was eliminated by world #65 Tereza Smitkova in her opener while Svetlana Kuznetsova, Alizé Cornet and Belinda Bencic all fell quickly after. Only Karolina Pliskova was able to live up to expectations, surviving some early challenges to make her eighth final in eighteen months. The big surprise though was the performance of Lucie Hradecka, mostly known as a doubles star, but after stunning Ana Ivanovic in Melbourne, really making a name for herself on the singles circuit too. She ousted former stars like Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Klara Koukalova on her way to the final, and even took the opening set off Pliskova in the championship match. She did lose eventually, but may have given herself the confidence she needs to really break out in the solo game this year.

There were surprises too in Marrakech where top seed Garbiñe Muguruza and red-hot Timea Bacsinszky both lost earlier than they would have liked. Instead a different Timea -- Hungary's Babos, who made a stellar run to a title in Monterrey more than three year ago -- took out Mona Barthel, Flavia Pennetta and giant-killer Kristina Mladenovic, marking the first time all year she'd won more than one main draw match at a single event. She would ultimately face off against fourth seed Elina Svitolina -- the former French Open Girls' champion has been slogging through the WTA Tour, picking up a couple titles in Baku and even taking a set off Serena Williams Down Under. Babos put up a fight against the heavy favorite, too, dropping the first set in a squeaker and pushing the Ukranian to a tiebreak for the second. It may not have been the result she wanted, but after years spent languishing in the rankings, it might finally be the push she needs to make a real move into the elite.

Not all of this weekend's finalists will come out as winners, of course, but for the underdogs, especially, who were able to deliver a couple big blows to their opponents all week long, they might have just put themselves on the road to bigger and better things the rest of the season. And maybe sometime soon they'll be the ones handing out the knock out punches.

The Unexpected Victors

It seems to be turning into a more common occurrence these days, seeing the men's draws get turned on their heads early in some big tournaments. But often early upsets ultimately just open the door for #2 or #3 on the list of favorites, with ultra-underdogs simply bowing out quickly after their big wins. That didn't happen at this week's ATP events, though -- while upsets certainly took place throughout the week, the top seeds did eventually survive to the finals. But to their surprise they'd find out their opponents were far more formidable foes than they could have possibly realized.

World #6 Tomas Berdych has had some big results this season so far -- he reached the semis in Melbourne, took a title in Rotterdam and gained an early lead on Roger Federer in the Dubai final. He'd also had a few hiccups here and there, though, losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in his Indian Wells opener and to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Monte Carlo. He seemed to have righted himself at the Portugal Open though, riding his top seed to the final with little drama. He even took the first set from Carlos Berlocq without dropping a game and looked cleared for the title.

But the thirty-one year old had his own plans. A bit off his highest ranking, Berlocq hadn't won more than one match at any event all year, but was on point when he hit the courts in Oeiras. He stunned second seeded Milos Raonic in the quarters, his first ever win over a top ten player. But unlike so many players who expend all their energy on getting that one big win, the Argentine followed up with an ouster of Daniel Gimeno Traver to reach his third final. He seemed to lose steam on Sunday, dropping the first set to Berdych in less than half an hour, but did manage a break to kick off the second. It was a tough battle for that set, but eventually Berlocq forced a decider and decided to up his game even further -- converting on four of five break chances, he rolled through the third set, notching his second top-ten victory and earning his second career title, easily the biggest win on his record.

Things got even more interesting in Munich where both defending champion Tommy Haas and top seeded Fabio Fognini were the favorites for the title. In his first matches since Indian Wells, the thirty-six year old Haas looked good early, taking out always-feisty Alejandro Falla and hanging tough against Andreas Seppi to make the semis. But it was Fognini who seemed even more in control -- just a shade off his best ranking of #13 in the world, the Italian has scored wins over Nicolas Almagro, Tommy Robredo and Gael Monfils already this year, and at the BMW Open he reached his third final of the year without dropping a set. He even got a set lead in Sunday's championship too, but again, that would soon be reversed.

Like Berlocq, Martin Klizan had tasted success over his career, but hadn't quite maintained that stance. A title in St. Petersburg nearly two years ago helped propel him to #26 in the world, but a relatively uneventful 2013 season pushed him out of the spotlight. He did have a couple chances this year, sneaking into the third round at the Australian Open and beating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Rio, but still languished with a triple-digit ranking. The Munich qualifier turned things around even before today's final, though -- he came back after losing the first set to Mikhail Youzhny and ended Haas's bid to repeat in the semis. And after losing his opener to Fognini -- incidentally, a rematch of the St. Petes final -- he turned the tables decisively, never losing serve again and dropping just three more games, making him the lowest-ranked player to win a title this year.

As much as the favorites have earned the right to be considered just that, sometimes it's nice to see some new faces in the mix. More important than winning the trophy, this weekend's champions proved they have what it takes to follow up one big win with another. And with so many of the most dominant forces in this sport showing they too can make mistakes, there may be no better time for these new champions to show their stuff.

Vets vs. Newbies

It's become a bit of a contest between old and new in Munich -- with top seeds getting upset throughout the week, we're left with a somewhat unusual crop of semifinalists. A couple have been decorated time and again while the others are fairly new to the winner's circle -- if they've been there at all. And as action winds down we might just find out if the seasoned pros are ready to give up the reins to young guns.

Top seeded Janko Tipsarevic ceded his spot in the final four earlier today when world #69 Daniel Brands notched his first top-ten win in nearly three years. The German had already delivered some solid results this year, reaching the quarters in Dubai and the semis in Doha, but this run might be the most impressive. He's made the semis in Munich before -- back in 2009 he beat Potito Starace and Julien Benneteau to get here -- but with wins over the Serbian #2 and Gael Monfils before him, he's faced and bested his biggest competition here. He has played three three-setters in a row, though, and might be a little more spent than his next opponent, Phillipp Kohlschreiber. His compatriot, the defending champion in fact, is going for his fifth career title and his third at the BMW Open. He hasn't dropped a set yet this week and won the pair's only previous meeting, so history is on his side. But twenty-five year old Brands might just be ready to make a move into the sport's top tiers, and a trip to his first ATP final would certainly put him solidly on that road. If he's able to keep the momentum he's seemed to have all week he could just make the statement he's been waiting to make.

Ivan Dodig has made a statement here and there in the past, but after a string of first-round losses last year pushed him out of the top fifty, it's been a while since he said anything above a whisper. He's made some strides to turn things around this season, though, making the third round in Indian Wells and beating Alexandr Dolgopolov in Delray Beach. This week in Germany, the Croat beat 2011 champ Nikolay Davydenko to start, ousted countryman Marin Cilic in his opener and earlier today repeated his victory over fifth-seeded Dolgopolov in straight sets. His task only gets tougher from here, of course -- next up is uber-veteran Tommy Haas, who's somewhat surprisingly never won the title in his homeland. Haas was challenged early by on-the-rebound Ernests Gulbis, but needed less than an hour to dismiss fellow German Florian Mayer earlier today. He also won his only match against Dodig, actually ending the underdog's run in Delray, so if Ivan's going to make another final, he's going to have to come out swinging from the start.

Clearly the burden will be on the non-seeds to deliver on Saturday, but given their performances so far this week there's no reason to believe they're incapable of big things. But the veterans will be out to stop them short, and won't go down easy. Whether it's ultimately time for them to step aside and let the upstarts take over remains to be seen, but this weekend's battles might just be a turning point for one of these guy's careers.

When the Cat's Away...

Not everyone showed up to defend their titles this week -- some literally, others more mentally -- so a couple trophies were truly up for grabs. And while players in every corner of the brackets scrambled for some big upsets, the ones who made it to the winners' circles were those who truly brought their A-games.

With last year's Belgrade champion sitting out the event this year, the tournament draw was wide open. Top seeded Pablo Andujar seemed to be in fine form early while veteran David Nalbandian, who's proven multiple times this year that he will not be discounted, fought his own way to the final. But ultimately it was Benoit Paire, playing his first ATP final, facing off against world #46 Andreas Seppi for the title. It was a valiant effort from the Frenchman -- he'd only spent one week of his career in the top eighty before coming to Serbia -- but the slightly more experienced Seppi took it to him from the start. He took advantage of weak serving from his opponent and capitalized on the strength that brought him his first title less than a year ago in Eastbourne. After just over an hour and a second set in which he lost just three points on serve, Seppi claimed the title and pushed himself to within a stone's throw of his career high ranking.

Nikolay Davydenko was in the draw at Munich, but a first-round loss to qualifier Robert Farah ended his hopes to recapture the crown early. And Tommy Haas, trying to get back in the double digits, took out both Marcos Baghdatis and top seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. But world #24 Marin Cilic finally ended his run, and Philipp Kohlschreiber, the champion here in 2007, survived a two-plus hour battle against Feliciano Lopez in the semis to make his sixth championship match. The pair traded breaks in the first set of the final, with the German ultimately closing it out in a tight tiebreak. But Kohlschreiber was able to save all four break chances in the second and pulled off one more upset to claim the title.

Juan Martin Del Potro was the only champion from a year ago who not only showed up in Estoril, but also was out to prove who's boss, and perhaps his imposing presence helped keep everyone in line -- all four top seeds made the semis without dropping a set. The Argentine had a bit of a challenge against Stanislas Wawrinka in their first set, with neither man allowing a break chance, but eventually took the match in straight sets. In the other half of the draw, Richard Gasquet found himself in a bit of trouble, dropping his first set to Albert Ramos, but climbing out of a hole in the second and getting a late break in the decider to take the match. That may have taken all the juice out of him, though. DelPo's service game was indomitable, while Gasquet seemed to falter on his, and the defender never allowed him an opportunity to break. After less than ninety minutes, he was hoisting the trophy above his head for a second time.

This week's results show the impact a defending champion can have when he brings his best to the office. If he's at the top of his game, he could make an easy run to the title -- if he's not, there's no telling who'll take advantage of the holes. And if these guys learn that lesson, we might see them break through all over the place the rest of the season.

The Masters

Okay, so the tournaments contested this week may not boast the highest level grade, but that didn't mean the players holding the trophies at the end of the day weren't the best quality. With the early rounds of an actual Masters event underway a few hundred miles away, we saw the same quality play -- or better -- at the championship matches of 250s in the rest of Europe.

At the BMW Open in Munich, defending champion Mikhail Youzhny lost early and the man he beat last year, Marin Cilic, exited a round later. And that allowed 2004 winner Nikolay Davydenko to power through the draw and earn his first title in more than a year. Seeded seventh at the tournament thanks to a long climb back from an injury-addled 2010, the former world #3 saw his biggest challenge in the second round, finding himself just two points from a loss to Julian Reister. But he was back in form after that and didn't lose another set on his way to the final.

There he met hometown favorite Florian Mayer, a talented right-hander who was playing in his third career clay-court final. He'd made a nice run a few weeks back to the fourth round in Miami, but didn't face a single player ranked higher than him in Munich. He must not have been up to the challenge posed by his twenty-title opponent on Sunday. Though Mayer was able to even the score in the second set, converting his one break point opportunity, Davydenko came through in the decider, winning nearly seventy-five percent of his service points and never giving the German a look at the lead. And after just under two hours it was Nikolay holding the crown and reminding us all that he's still a force to contend with.

Speaking of forces, red-hot Novak Djokovic proved he was in no hurry to end his winning streak when he took to the courts in his own homeland of Serbia. He was clearly the favorite at the tournament he owns and was barely challenged on the way to his fifth championship match of the year.

On the other side of the draw a resurgent Feliciano Lopez finally began looking comfortable again on clay -- it was only the second tournament of the year in which he'd advanced past the second round. In Belgrade, though, he fought his way through three tough opponents to start his campaign -- veteran Juan Monaco, Fernando Gonzalez, making his own comeback, and fourth seeded Albert Montanes. But Djokovic was too much to handle in the final -- the world #1 was within arm's reach during the first set, squeaking out a win in a tiebreak, but took control in the second, winning all but one of his first serve points and eventually improving his record on the year to 27-0 -- exactly the kind of mark he'd want before making his way to Madrid.

But perhaps the biggest statement was made in Estoril, where two A-listers clawed their way to the final. Second seeded Fernando Verdasco, whose play has been lackluster most of the year, found a way to win early in Portugal, and got a huge reprieve in the semis when, after a rain-induded double-header, Milos Raonic -- already twice his vanquisher this year -- retired with a back injury. In the bracket's top half, 2009 U.S. Open winner Juan Martin was playing his first clay court event in almost two years and showed his comeback was for real when he took out top seed Robin Soderling on his way to Sunday's match.

And he didn't slow down a notch when playing for the title -- though he was broken in his first game of the match, DelPo didn't look back again. He only allowed Verdasco to hold serve once in the opening set and took control early in the second. After just over an hour he'd claimed his ninth career crown and, somewhat surprising for an Argentine, only his third on clay. If you were writing him off as a threat for Roland Garros, you just might want to think again.

It was quite a rewarding week for all these guys -- Nole continues to close the gap between himself and the top spot in the sport, which both Nikolay and Juan Martin got themselves back into seeding territory for the upcoming Major. But more than that, they've re-established themselves as real powers on a surface where they haven't necessarily been forces before. And it should make a couple others out there sit up and take notice.

No Case for the Defense

The first couple days of action this week hasn't been all that encouraging for the players trying to defend titles on the European clay courts. Neither Sam Querrey nor Francesca Schiavone showed up to even try reclaiming crowns in Belgrade or Barcelona, respectively, and Albert Montanes traded up slightly from Estoril to play with some bigger guns in Serbia.

The few year-ago champions left who tried to extend their streaks didn't fare very well either -- Mikhail Youzhny, the top seed in Munich struggled in his first round before falling in a heart-breaker to Phillipp Petzschner in the third and Australian Open standout Anastasija Sevastova squandered her opening match lead in Portugal, making an early exit at the only event she's ever won.

So with last year's titleholders all out of the picture, those remaining might have a clearer shot at capturing the trophy, and a couple have a pretty good shot at causing a stir.

The absence of Querrey might not have too much meaning at the Serbian Open, where 2009 champion Novak Djokovic is the top seed. This is his tournament in so many ways -- he actually owns it -- and though he sat out the first two weeks of clay court season with knee troubles, he hit the dirt running with a straight set win over qualifier Adrian Unger in his second round. Now loss-less in his twenty-five matches this year, he's looking good to win an astounding fifth trophy in 2011, and that should remind everyone he's not just a hardcourt force.

The draw for the ladies in Barcelona has opened up quite a bit more -- with early defeats of Marion Bartoli and Alexandra Dulgheru, only two seeds made it to the quarterfinals. Lucie Hradecka, who fell out of the top hundred after a wrist injury last year, has been slowly clawing her way up the rankings. Her straight set victories over Iveta Benesova and Gisela Dulko prove she can hit, and her win earlier on Thursday earned her her first Tour semifinal since July. And Pattaya City finalist Sara Errani is one of those spunky players who's just screaming to break out -- she dropped just a handful of games in her first two rounds and on Thursday stopped Alberta Brianti's run dead in its tracks.

Over in Munich we saw a similar seed-dopping, but a few others still have managed to squeak through. Marin Cilic, whose efforts to climb into the top ten have come in fits and starts, reached the quarters with a win over Horacio Zeballos. And Nikolay Davydenko was able to continue his comeback with a three-set win over Julian Reister on Thursday. But perhaps the player with the best potential this week is Potito Starace -- after a disappointing runner-up finish in Casablanca, he might be ready to make a statement here.

Portugal has been the site of a few surprises as well, with the three top seeds all losing on Thursday. Jarmila Gajdosova (formerly Groth) proved she was too strong to let personal problems get in the way of her tennis, but ultimately surrendered a big lead in the quarters, and Klara Zakopalova, who'd battled a few challenges all week also fell. I've been most impressed by of Kristina Barrois, a quarterfinalist last week in Stuttgart. She took out Elena Vesnina earlier and today bested top seed Alisa Kleybanova to reach the final four -- with her next match against Johanna Larsson, I wouldn't be surprised to see her go even further.

The men in Estoril have had a little more luck so far -- Robin Soderling looked solid in his opener and even recently spotty Fernando Verdasco was impressive early. But Milos Raonic, trying to prove he's not just a hard-court player, seems to be getting his footing on clay, and Thomaz Bellucci, who often delivers his best performances on the surface, has fought his way to the quarters and should be able to keep it up at least a little while longer.

These guys and gals have a great opportunity to make a mark on their draws this week. They better take the chance now, as the road to a title will only get more difficult as we head to the next few Masters events of the season. But the way they're playing, they just might be able to cause some even bigger upsets down the road.