The Unexpected Victors

It seems to be turning into a more common occurrence these days, seeing the men's draws get turned on their heads early in some big tournaments. But often early upsets ultimately just open the door for #2 or #3 on the list of favorites, with ultra-underdogs simply bowing out quickly after their big wins. That didn't happen at this week's ATP events, though -- while upsets certainly took place throughout the week, the top seeds did eventually survive to the finals. But to their surprise they'd find out their opponents were far more formidable foes than they could have possibly realized.

World #6 Tomas Berdych has had some big results this season so far -- he reached the semis in Melbourne, took a title in Rotterdam and gained an early lead on Roger Federer in the Dubai final. He'd also had a few hiccups here and there, though, losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in his Indian Wells opener and to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Monte Carlo. He seemed to have righted himself at the Portugal Open though, riding his top seed to the final with little drama. He even took the first set from Carlos Berlocq without dropping a game and looked cleared for the title.

But the thirty-one year old had his own plans. A bit off his highest ranking, Berlocq hadn't won more than one match at any event all year, but was on point when he hit the courts in Oeiras. He stunned second seeded Milos Raonic in the quarters, his first ever win over a top ten player. But unlike so many players who expend all their energy on getting that one big win, the Argentine followed up with an ouster of Daniel Gimeno Traver to reach his third final. He seemed to lose steam on Sunday, dropping the first set to Berdych in less than half an hour, but did manage a break to kick off the second. It was a tough battle for that set, but eventually Berlocq forced a decider and decided to up his game even further -- converting on four of five break chances, he rolled through the third set, notching his second top-ten victory and earning his second career title, easily the biggest win on his record.

Things got even more interesting in Munich where both defending champion Tommy Haas and top seeded Fabio Fognini were the favorites for the title. In his first matches since Indian Wells, the thirty-six year old Haas looked good early, taking out always-feisty Alejandro Falla and hanging tough against Andreas Seppi to make the semis. But it was Fognini who seemed even more in control -- just a shade off his best ranking of #13 in the world, the Italian has scored wins over Nicolas Almagro, Tommy Robredo and Gael Monfils already this year, and at the BMW Open he reached his third final of the year without dropping a set. He even got a set lead in Sunday's championship too, but again, that would soon be reversed.

Like Berlocq, Martin Klizan had tasted success over his career, but hadn't quite maintained that stance. A title in St. Petersburg nearly two years ago helped propel him to #26 in the world, but a relatively uneventful 2013 season pushed him out of the spotlight. He did have a couple chances this year, sneaking into the third round at the Australian Open and beating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Rio, but still languished with a triple-digit ranking. The Munich qualifier turned things around even before today's final, though -- he came back after losing the first set to Mikhail Youzhny and ended Haas's bid to repeat in the semis. And after losing his opener to Fognini -- incidentally, a rematch of the St. Petes final -- he turned the tables decisively, never losing serve again and dropping just three more games, making him the lowest-ranked player to win a title this year.

As much as the favorites have earned the right to be considered just that, sometimes it's nice to see some new faces in the mix. More important than winning the trophy, this weekend's champions proved they have what it takes to follow up one big win with another. And with so many of the most dominant forces in this sport showing they too can make mistakes, there may be no better time for these new champions to show their stuff.

Sixth Time's a Charm?

The ladies taking the court in Oeiras really shook things up from the start, this week, didn't they?

Third seeded Sam Stosur, one of the most accomplished players in the field, lost her opener to world #165 Timea Bacsinszky, a woman who's spent most of the last three years rehabbing on the ITF Tour, and Lucie Safarova, who so nearly beat eventual Stuttgart titleist Maria Sharapova in that first round, bowed out early in Portugal to Polona Hercog. Other favorites got a little further, but eventually Melbourne Cinderella Genie Bouchard and Roberta Vinci -- whose two match wins this week was her best performance all season -- were also sent packing.

All that leaves two somewhat unlikely players to contest tomorrow's championship match.

Former world #2 Svetlana Kuznetsova has won thirteen trophies in her long career and she'ss laid claim to two Grand Slams. But she's lost the only final she's played since 2010 and has fallen a bit down the rankings since. She did manage to climb back last year after injury, reaching later rounds in Tokyo and Moscow, and last week in Stuttgart survived red-hot Simona Halep in two tight sets. She maintained a low seed in Oerias, but upset Bouchard in the quarters and earlier today barreled through compatriot Elena Vesnina in just over an hour. She hasn't won a title in almost four years, though, so she may be a little rough in tomorrow's match. And that could be just the opening her opponent needs.

Carla Suarez Navarro has had some big wins during her career -- she stunned Venus Williams at the 2009 Australian Open and reached the quarters in New York with a win over Angelique Kerber last year -- but despite five previous final appearances, all on what should be her best surface, she's never won a title. But this time one thing is different -- the Spaniard is just off her career high ranking, and tomorrow will be the first time she faces someone ranked lower than her for the crown. She hasn't dropped a set yet, either, and won her opening two matches in under an hour each. Today's match against Irina-Camelia Begu was her first real test, and though she was pushed to a tiebreak to start, she rolled through the second set decisively to reach her third consecutive final in the former Estoril. It won't be easy of course - CSN's only gotten one win in her previous four meetings with the Russian, and one of Sveta's Majors did, after all, come on clay -- but she's arguably playing the better ball these days, and with all her earlier attempts coming up short, she might finally have the momentum and the motivation to get things done this time around.

It wouldn't be the longest streak of finals with no title, of course -- just last year, after all, Elena Vesnina ended a run of six trophy-less campaigns in Hobart -- but breaking it now, at such a prime juncture in her career, could put Suarez Navarro on a new path. With the French Open around the corner -- an event at which she's only won one match in her entire career -- she'll want to prove she has the goods. A victory tomorrow would only be the first step to bigger and better things, of course, but once she breaks the seal, there's no telling what she could be able to do.

The Surprise Factor

Here's the thing about clay -- you really never know what's going to happen. Ever.

And this weekend a couple players proved they could get down and dirty, even when facing competition much more accomplished on the surface.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova had won all four of her previous titles on hardcourts and had only once made it into the second week of the French Open. The Russian progressed through the draw by the skin of her teeth -- she needed three sets to get through both Elena Vesnina and virtually unknown Romina Oprandi, dropping a bagel to the Swiss in the semis. Meanwhile her opponent in the Oeiras final this weekend, young Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro, was practically raised on the dirt. Though she hadn't yet won a title in her career, she had played for four championships on clay, even getting to the final Saturday in Portugal last year. Her road to this final had been smooth as well -- she hadn't dropped a set all week and easily ousted a resurgent Kaia Kanepi in the last four.

She had a leg up against Pavs in the final, too, breaking her opponent in the first service game and giving her trouble on serve throughout early play. But Anastasia had won the pair's previous four meetings and wasn't about to end her streak. After a visit from new coach, soon-to-be Hall of Famer Martina Hingis, the third seed was able to regroup -- she fought back from the deficit and dominated throughout the second set. After just over ninety minutes, the more experienced lady was left holding the trophy, pulling her to 5-2 in WTA finals. CSN falls to a less impressive 0-5, but her ability on these courts can't be ignored -- today she turned right around to win her Madrid first round against Sam Stosur, so hope is clearly not lost. And her strength only makes Pavs' accomplishment more noteworthy -- if she can win here, afterall, who knows where else she'll thrive.

The results in the men's event might have been even more impressive. David Ferrer, a long-time staple in the top ten and often hailed as the best player without a Grand Slam title, is a more-than-intimidating 247-100 on clay and has won fully half of his twenty titles on the surface. He'd already won two crowns this season, but injury hampered his play since the American hardcourt season and he was pushed to a third set in his Oeiras opener. Still, against Stanislas Wawrinka, relatively middling at 64% on clay, he was the clear favorite in Sunday's final. The Swiss had pulled off a huge win over Andy Murray in Monte Carlo last month and reached the semis in Casablanca already, but he was tested from the start in Portugal -- he lost his opening set to Albert Ramos, was forced to a decider by qualifying upstart Pablo Carreno-Busta in the semis.

But he was ultimately better rested going into Sunday's final. Wawrinka ran away with the first set and didn't allow a break opportunity during the hour-long match. It was his first top-ten win of the season and secured his fourth career title with a 6-1, 6-4 victory. For a guy who's struggled to deliver a big impact on the big stages -- he was half of the most epic match of the 2013 Australian Open, but ultimately lost after five hours of play -- this might just have gained him ground in his efforts.

This weekend's victors in Portugal certainly had to pull off some big wins to get their trophies, and the fact that they did so against some of the strongest players on these courts makes it even more sweet. Whether these wins translate into greater successes once the stakes are raised remains to be seen, but if their performances so far is any indication, all the favorites better sit up and take notice.