Golden Opportunities

Well now we're really getting down to it -- one week of Wimbledon in the books and one more to go, and as expected we've had some standout play. But as we start to get really serious in the second week, maybe it's time to reassess where we stand -- after all plenty of favorites are out of the mix and a couple of surprise standouts have really got a chance to do something big.

A breakthrough moment for 🇭🇺 Marton Fucsovics 👏

He scores a 6-3, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4 win over No. 9 seed Schwartzman to make his first Week 2 appearance at #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/kxDal2pR9m

— ATP Tour (@atptour) July 2, 2021

The Men

Sure most of the favorites on the men's side are alive and well -- after dropping his first set to wildcard teen Jack Draper, defending champion Novak Djokovic has been unstoppable, Roger Federer rebounded from a pretty ugly opening round and has sailed through his next two, even Daniil Medvedev, who's never made it out of the third round here, came back from two sets down to former finalist Marin Cilic yesterday to reach the final 16. But there have been other standouts.

Seeded 14^th, Hubert Hurkacz has basically done what he's supposed to so far, but for a Miami champ who'd only won one match since that breakthrough performance, it's been a good reminder of what he's capable of. The 24-year-old Pole got to his first Major fourth round with surprisingly straightforward wins over teen phenom Lorenzo Musetti, resurging Marcos Giron, and underrated Alexander Bublik, becoming the only man who hasn't lost a set yet. That may change against second seed Medvedev tomorrow, but as stated the favorite was pushed to the limit in his third round and could be vulnerable now.

And Sebastian Korda, who was ranked outside the top two-hundred at this time last year, has so far been unintimidated by the grand stage of his first Wimbledon. After a four set win over Eastbourne champ Alex de Minaur, he went on to beat hometown favorite Dan Evans in the third round. And he's got a huge opportunity to make his first Major quarterfinal -- 25^th seed Karen Khachanov has been a little quiet lately, and thanks to a stunning win by Frances Tiafoe in the first round here, hasn't been an underdog in a match yet. Korda will still be the underdog tomorrow -- on his 21^st birthday no less -- at least on paper, but something tells me he might be able to get the better of even the more experienced Russian. It sure would be a pretty nice way to celebrate.

Meanwhile Marton Fucsovics has been quietly hacking away at his part of the draw too. A fourth-rounder at two Grand Slams last year -- he took out Denis Shapovalov in Australia and then stunned Daniil Medvedev back when he was winless in Paris -- he's been ranked as high as #31 in the world, but often plays well above that level. He opened his campaign at the All England Club with a big win over wünderkind Jannik Sinner and then dispatched ninth seed Diego Schwartzman in the third round. For a spot in the quarters he'll face Andrey Rublev, certainly a hard ask, but he has won the pair's only previous five-setter, though that was four years ago. Still the Hungarian has a strong game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his run continue.

But the real surprise has been Ilya Ivashka who, at 27, is one of the oldest first-time main drawers in the field. The Belorussian comes to Wimbledon at a career high ranking of just 79^th in the world, thanks to a run to the quarters in Eastbourne, but he also has a win over Alexander Zverev and took a set off Rafael Nadal in Barcelona this year. He's had a pretty clear path so far, with his second round opponent having taken out Aslan Karatsev and his third having dismissed Casper Ruud for him, but that still got him what's already been his best Major performance by far. He'll next face Matteo Berrettini, whose run this year has honestly been so refreshing and will certainly be no easy challenge. Still, if there were ever a year for the late bloomer to shine, it might be this one.

The Women

The ladies' side has seen a similar dichotomy. Former Major champions Ashleigh Barty, Angelique Kerber, Iga Swiatek, and even the most newly-crowned Barbora Krejcikova, playing her first singles main draw here, advancing without too much drama. And much-lauded upstarts like Coco Gauff, Ons Jabeur, Elena Rybakina, and Paula Badosa have all shown their recent successes were no fluke. But some others are making a run here and have a shot at really redefining their careers.

It may seem weird to start that conversation with a look at second seed Aryna Sabalenka, but when you realize the world #4 and ten-time WTA title holder has never made it out of the fourth round of a Major, you might see what I mean. After her stellar run on clay, I gave her a pretty good shot at taking the French Open title, but she fell in the third round. She also lost her opener in Berlin and was stunned by world #75 Camila Giorgi in Eastbourne. She's been decently strong so far, coming back from a set down to British wildcard Katie Boulter before taking out teen breakthrough Maria Camilia Osorio Serrano in her Wimbledon debut. Next up for Sabalenka is Rybakina, who's turning her year around in a big way. The favorite may have won both their previous matches, most recently in the Abu Dhabi quarters, but we'll see if she can steel her nerves enough to finally break her curse.

Meanwhile wildcard Liudmila Samsonova is quickly proving her Cinderella run in Berlin was legit. Ranked in triple digits just last month, her wins over five top-fifty players, including Victoria Azarenka and Belinda Bencic told everyone she's a force, and her wins this week over Sloane Stephens and seeded Jessica Pegula really drove it home. She'll face off Monday against eighth seed Karolina Pliskova, who's been admittedly strong in her first week of play here. Samsonova may be the underdog in this fight, but I have to say, it's as good a shot as any she might have to reach her maiden Major quarter.

Also with a shot at reaching a milestone is relative veteran Viktorija Golubic, who's been quietly having a pretty solid year. A finalist at two straight tournaments during the spring and a winner over Belinda Bencic in Eastbourne, she'd cut her ranking in half already this year and is primed to go even higher. After a marathon first round against Veronika Kudermetova which went 11-9 in the third, she had a surprisingly easy time against Danielle Collins one match later and dropped just three games to Madison Brengle on Friday. She's up against Madison Keys next, certainly a bigger threat and one who scored a big upset of her own against Elise Mertens. Still it's a winnable match for the Swiss and could really open things up for her.

Of course, the big surprise in the ladies draw comes in the top quarter of the draw. Veteran Ajla Tomljanovic, who's struggled with consistency over the years -- she beat Aga Radwanska at the French in 2014 then lost in eight straight first rounds that year, she broke the top 40 in 2019 but was 5-12 last year -- seems to have found her footing in London again. She held tough against Alizée Cornet, who'd scored a huge win over Bianca Andreescu in her opener, and came back against Eastbourne champ Jelena Ostapenko, someone I thought had the potential to go far. She'll face off against this event's clear Cinderella, British wildcard Emma Raducanu, an eighteen year old junior quarterfinalist here a few year's ago who's picked up a couple ITF trophies over her very short career. Her run in her Major debut, though, might suggest there's more to come -- she beat former French finalist Marketa Vondrousova and stunned an in-form Sorana Cirstea on Saturday. This match-up presents a huge opportunity for both women, neither of whom have even had a whiff of a quarterfinal before. Going forward, it'll only get harder of course -- the winner will meet one of the recent French Open champions -- but what a chance to put one of their names on the map.

One of These Things Is Not Like the Other Ones...

Okay, I know we're all anxiously awaiting the return of Roger Federer, and we are getting really, really close. But as much as we all want to see the great one on court again for the first time in over a year, we can't the other top-tier talent that pulled off some big wins at tournaments around the world over the last week. And while a couple of top ten stars were able to add another trophy to their shelves, there was one newly minted champion that may have stood out from all the rest.

1️⃣8️⃣ years of age
0️⃣ sets dropped all week
🏆 First WTA title
💯 Breaks into the top 100

A memorable day in Lyon for Clara Tauson 🇩🇰#Open6emeSensML pic.twitter.com/MNvBoBTtQD

— wta (@WTA) March 7, 2021

I'll start in Rotterdam, where one man further established himself as a real force of the new genereration. Andrey Rublev, who won more titles last year than even Novak Djokovic, was actually only the fourth seed here, but with three straight Major quarterfinal showings and a series of wins over top-ten players, it shouldn't be surprising that he outplayed that. He got a little bit of a break with soon-to-be world #2 Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev both losing early in the top half of the draw, but he was nevertheless clinical in his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis. And while he played a tight first set against an under-rated Marton Fucsovics in Sunday's final, he stayed strong in the second to secure the win. It was his eighth career title -- impressive for a 23-year-old -- and brings him to a 13-1 record for the year -- Medvedev, with ten wins this season, comes in second on that stat. And there's no reason to believe Rublev won't be adding a lot more Ws to that column in the weeks to come.

The story in Doha was less about the next gen and more about the veteran class. Still, with the eight seeds all ranked in the top fifteen, there was plenty of opportunity for the on-paper favorites to face some really challenges. And they did: Australian Open runner-up Jen Brady won just three games in her first round against Anett Kontaveit, while Melbourne Cinderella Jessica Pegula, bizarrely having to qualify for this event, dismissed second seed Karolina Pliskova handily in the quarters. Ultimately, though, it was unseeded Garbiñe Muguruza, a former world #1, facing fellow two-time Grand Slam champion Petra Kvitova in the final. And while Muguruza has had some brilliant moments this year -- she took out recently-unstoppable Aryna Sabalenka in the second round and had match point against Naomi Osaka at the Open -- the much-decorated Kvitova was too much to handle. After just over an hour of play, the 30-year-old Czech returned to the winner's circle, lifting her 28^th career trophy and first since 2019. And to do it amid such an illustrious field sure adds icing to the cake.

Diego Schwartzman may have come into his own a little later than these two champions -- he only cracked the top ten for the first time last year, at 28 years old, but as a long-time workhorse on tour, he's certainly put in the work to have earned it. The ATP Challenger Tour champion way back in 2014, he slogged it out in the middle tiers, picking ups smaller titles in Istanbul, Rio, and Los Cabos along the way, before his breakthrough last season. And after a disappointing early exit last week in Córdoba, he was eager to make good on his top seed this time around. But he'd have a big roadblock -- qualifier Francisco Cerundolo, whose younger brother shocked the world with a title last week at his first tour event, was hoping to keep the family win streak going, first dismissing inexplicably seeded Benoit Paire -- he's 2-10 since the lockdown -- and then repeating Juan Manuel's win over Albert Ramos-Viñolas in the semis. But Schwartzman was just too tough for him in the championship match, dropping just three games in the course of 80 minutes to win his firt title on home soil. And while he has a ways to go to catch up to those other two champs this week, I'm shown he's got the work ethic to at least try.

Of course, as I alluded to above, it wasn't just players adding to their trophy count this week -- in Lyon, we got a brand new champion thanks to a final contested by not one but two qualifiers, both playing for their first title. Of course, at 28 years old, Viktorija Golubic has a little more experience, having made the final in Linz back in 2016, where she beat both Madison Keys and Garbiñe Muguruza, and reaching a high just out of the top fifty in the world. But she's since dropped into triple digits and has spent most of the year on the ITF circuit. This week, though, she seemed to get back on track, stunning Caroline Garcia in the second round and then coming back for a win over second seed Fiona Ferro in the semis. Meanwhile, eighteen-year-old Dane Clara Tauson, who'd beaten Jen Brady in the Roland Garros first round last year, followed up her upset of top-seeded Ekaterina Alexandrova here with three more straight set wins to make the final. She didn't let up in on Sunday, either, staying tough against an oppenent a decade her senior to win that maiden crown. The win should put her into the top hundred for the first time in her young career, and while she might be far from the accomplishment of this week's other champions, Tauson might just have shown she belongs among their ranks too.

Wide Open Spaces

We're now at the point in a Grand Slam when, if things had gone exactly according to plan, we'd have gotten rid of all the qualifiers and wildcards, everyone would have beaten an oppenent only if they were ranked lower than them, and we'd be left with a draw that pitted one seed against another.

Of course, things never go exactly as planned, and this year at the French Open, a couple early upsets and literal luck of the draw seem to have created some big swaths of land that could allow some unexpected players to run free.

Let's start with the men, who admittedly have a much narrower path than the women, but who nevertheless have created a couple opportunities. The bottom quarter of the draw may be the most open, with the early exit of Daniil Medvedev and today's stunning loss by my semifinal pick Denis Shapovalov at the hands of world #101 Roberto Carballes Baena. While Hamburg champ Andrey Rublev and sith seed Stefanos Tsitsipas remain real threats here, someone like Marton Fucsovics, who beat Medvedev, might be able to take advantage. He made the fourth round in Australia this year, and with his next match against Thiago Monteiro, he's got a good shot of at least matching that. He'd likely face Rublev a round later, and while their only previous meeting was three years ago when Rublev was a much less formidable foe, it was on clay, and he did win. It did also go five sets, but at the very least this could be a nice fight.

Fewer favorites have survived the second quarter of the men's draw, and while one of those still standing is twelve-time champion Rafael Nadal (who, I'm told, has never lost a match at Roland Garros when seeded second), that doesn't mean all hope is lost for the others. Qualifier Marco Cecchinato stunned the world two years ago when he beat Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals here, and while he's since dropped out of the top hundred, his performance over the last week or so may suggest he's back on track. He opened with a win over Alex de Minaur and then took out Juan Ignacio Londero in four sets. He'll be tested by U.S. Open finalist Alexander Zverev in the next round, of course, but the German had to battle through a four-hour five-setter in the last round and could be taken advantage of.

Things could get even more interesting for the ladies, where a couple sections have opened up wide. Patricia Maria Tig, who'd lost her first round match in four of the five Majors she'd played before Paris -- she lost in the second round of this year's U.S. Open -- quietly won her first career title on the clay of Istanbul while the rest of us had our eyes glued on New York. She hasn't had to do anything spectacular yet -- her last opponent took care of Karolina Muchova and her next one, Palermo titleist, dispatched Elena Rybakina -- but with Sofia Kenin struggling a bit, she may not have to for a few rounds yet.

And then there's 2017 champion Jelena Ostapenko, who before this year had never won a match at the French before or since that title run. She seemed to be getting her form back last week in Strasbourg, though she was broken six times in her quarterfinal match against Nao Hibino, but a decisive straight set win over second seeded Karolina Pliskova today could be what she needs to really get her confidence back. The now twenty-three year old will next face Paula Badosa, who also got the better of 2018 runner-up Sloane Stephens today, and with my very meh pick Petra Martic lurking in this section, I could see either of them surviving a few more matches.

Serena Williams has withdrawn from #RolandGarros with an achilles injury. pic.twitter.com/u6vGa9JCkX

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) September 30, 2020

But perhaps the biggest opening was created in Serena Williams' quarter (actually, I guess, Elina Svitolina's quarter) -- not necessarily because the American was a favorite to win here (as we know this is her worst Slam), but because of all the other craziness that happened there. Yes, the top half of this section is stacked -- the only non-seed there is Caroline Garcia, who is hardly an underdog -- but the bottom half is wide open.

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who first hit my radar with a win over Venus Williams here in 2014 and stunned red-hot Victoria Azarenka yesterday will face Nadia Podoroska who, ranked #131 in the world, had never won a match at a Major before this week, but really got under the skin of Yulia Putintseva in their second round. And U.S. Open feel-good story Tsvetana Pironkova, the immediate beneficiary of Serena's withdrawal, will take on doubles specialist Barbora Krejcikova, who beat Barbora Strycova in the second round. It just seems incredible that one of these long shots is guaranteed a place in the fourth round.

Then again, isn't that what's so great about sport? And in a year like the one we've seen, it's those stories that can really stand out for the good -- whether they're comebacks or breakthroughs, it's great to see new talent shine -- and maybe just give us all something to celebrate.

And So It Begins...

Tomorrow marks the first day of main draw action at the retooled Western & Southern Open -- Cincy in NYC, it seems -- and the true kickoff of the abbreviated, and ultimately surreal, road to the U.S. Open. And while many of the sport's top players will be conspicuously missing from the draws over the next few weeks, there's plenty of opportunity for fireworks that could set the stage for an exciting slate of tennis. And we could see some of that right from the get-go.

Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Cincy anymore....#CInCyTennis pic.twitter.com/1X5oXmkKpf

— Western & Southern Open (@CincyTennis) August 21, 2020

The Qualies

It begins, of course, in the qualifiers, where a surprising number of former standouts have spent the last few days trying just for a chance to compete for the crown. Among the players contesting these pre-event matches: former world #6 Gilles Simon and doubles star Jeremy Chardy -- both of whom fell short in their matches -- as well as two-time Major finalist Vera Zvonareva, whose win this afternoon got her a spot in the main draw. But perhaps the more interesting names in the mix are the newer names who've been trying to make a name for themselves in these strange times.

On the men's side there's Sebastian Korda, who got the win over Simon today -- he's spent most of his time on the Challengers circuit over the years, but taking out the top seeded qualifier could give him some much-needed confidence. And then there's South Africa's Lloyd Harris, who seemed to me to come out of nowhere when he made the final in Adelaide. In #CiNYC he opened with a win over Mikael Ymer and followed it up by defeating Andrej Martin. But perhaps the qualifier to watch most closely is Marton Fucscovics, who made the fourth round of the Australian Open, even taking a set off Roger Federer in the process. After making it through these early rounds, he might get a bit of a breather in the main draw, opening against fellow qualifer Norbert Gombos first. But, if we know anything these days, it's that nothing is for certain.

Meanwhile, Lexington finalist Jil Teichmann faced off for a second straight week against Top Seed giant-killer Shelby Rogers and again came out on top. In her first round, she'll meet Danielle Collins, ranked just one spot ahead of her at #53 in the world, so certainly has room to keep her run going. Then there's young standout Leylah Fernandez, who not only beat Sloane Stephens last week, but made the final in Acapulco back in February. She might have a harder draw, opening against Ons Jabeur, so a continued run is no guarantee. But it could be a great opportunity for the teen to make a real mark for the year.

The Men

Of course the real drama will likely be reserved for the main draw, and with far fewer entrants this year than in seasons past, we could see a lot of that drama early on.

Surprise Auckland semifinalist Hubert Hurkacz is just barely unseeded at the W&S, and faces off in his first round against John Isner. The American won the pair's only previous meeting, but something tells me we could be in for an upset this time. Hurkacz notched wins over Diego Schwartzman and Dominic Thiem at the ATP Cup to start the year and managed victories over Kei Nishikori and Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2019 before winning his maiden, and so far only, title in Winston-Salem. And while he doesn't quite yet have the ace power of Isner, at 6'5" Hurkacz certainly could become a force in that respect. And if he can figure out how to return the big man's serve, he might just be able to do something with it.

Speaking of big servers, you don't get much bigger than Sam Querrey and Milos Raonic, two powerful players who've been unfortunately sidelined on and off and so are both well off their best rankings. But it wasn't that long ago that either's stars were shining bright -- Raonic reached the finals at Wimbledon in 2016 and a handful of Slam quarters since, most recently in Melbourne this year, and Querrey stunned the world with a trip to the final four at the All England Club in 2017. The Canadian is still ranked higher than Sam, and has a 4-2 record, but if these two can channel what they're capable of, this could be a good one.

On the opposite end of the height spectrum is the match up between rising star Casper Ruud and ninth seed Diego Schwartzman, who stands a whopping 5'7" tall. But the Argentine has nevertheless been able to pull off some impressive shots and wins during his career, putting up a nice fight against Rafael Nadal in the U.S. Open quarters last year. He's got a 3-0 record against the young Norwegian, but all of those matches were played back in 2018, before Ruud really hit his stride. And at #36 in the world now, he could prove to be more of a test. I imagine we could get some really great tennis out of this one.

But perhaps the most first round star power will come from the showdown between Frances Tiafoe and three-time Major winner Andy Murray, both wildcards in #CiNYC. Tiafoe was one of my dark horse picks to win a Major this year, and we can all agree that's not happening. Nor is it likely he's going to move significantly higher up the rankings. But he is a talented player with a couple of top-ten wins under his belt. But Murray reminded us of what a force he is when he, recently back from hip surgery, won a title in Antwerp last year, beating Stan Wawrinka in the final. I imagine he's make quick work in this match too, but with a second round match against Alexander Zverev on the line, I sure would love to make this one a thing to remember.

The Women

There are some fun first rounders on the women's side too. While I was looking forward to seeing Kim Clijsters take on Lexington champ Jennifer Brady, the comeback queen put off her return a little while longer. Still there are plenty of games worth watching.

I'll start with another player I had high hopes for at the start of the year -- former world #1 and two-time Australian Open winner Victoria Azarenka, who starts her #CiNYC campaign against 15^th seed Donna Vekic. The Belorussian hasn't quite lived up to my expectations this year, and Vekic has won their two previous meetings. Still Vika has done well on these courts before, reaching the finals at the U.S. Open the same years she won her Majors in Melbourne, and she might just be hungry enough for an upset here.

Then there's Venus Williams, who came out the victor against Vika in their first round in Lexington earlier this month. She's the wildcard, on-paper underdog against 16^th seed Dayana Yastremska, who actually picked up three titles while I wasn't looking over the last couple years. The twenty-year-old Ukranian made the final in Adelaide this season and notched a win over Aussie champ Sofia Kenin in Doha, and is clearly a force on the court. Still, we've seen a lot of great ball from the veteran over the last few months, including a classic against her own sister last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see her pull through again here.

Meanwhile, one of the women who's been a thorn in Venus's side for the past year will look for another big win to add to her resume. Coco Gauff, fresh off a semifinal run in Lexington and at a career-high ranking of #50 in the world, will face world #21 Maria Sakkari. It would be far from the biggest win of Gauff's season -- she's already won battles against Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka in 2020 -- but it would put her in spitting distance of what would be a blockbuster: a potential third round against Serena Williams, what would be the first meeting between the two. Gauff is unlikely to be distracted by that possibility, though, and will remain focused on the task at hand, and there's no reason she shouldn't pull off another big win.

And then there are two ladies who quietly got off to some of the best starts of the year. Ekaterina Alexandrova, another one just out of seeding territory, won her maiden title in Shenzhen in January and then made the semis in St. Petersburg. She's had less success since lockdown, but nonetheless could be a threat. Her first round opponent Elena Rybakina, meanwhile, was on court practically nonstop before March, reaching four finals in five back-to-back events, winning a title in Hobart, before finally pulling out of the third round in Doha -- she's somehow already played 25 matches this year, impressive with only two and a half months of events! This is her first event back in action, but I'm hoping she can pick up where she left off and show us her performance this winter was no fluke.

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So the countdown is on to the first big tournament we've seen in a while, and it certainly seems like we have a lot to look forward to. If these matches live up to their potential, we might not even notice the big holes that seem to be in the draws. And all that could open the doors for some new blood when the stakes are even higher.

And at the end of the day, here's hoping we get some great tennis and a safe and healthy outcome.