Fed Cup Follies

Fed Cup is -- and Davis Cup used to be, though I'm not so familiar with the new format and don't really have enough evidence to say the statement does or does not stand anymore -- always a little strange. With each round often taking place right after the Majors, it often surprises me how many of the sport's top player show up for their countries after a grueling fortnight (though, in many cases, the athletes probably played much less at the Slams than they'd hoped). And maybe it's just because of that timeline that we see such interesting and unexpected results at these events, and this year was no different.

Some of the ties were runaways -- Germany blanked Brazil, winning all three of their singles and their only doubles rubber, and Elise Mertens lived up to her potential to help Belgium advance over Kazakhstan -- but even then there were surprises. Belinda Bencic was stunned by world #185 Leylah Fernandez, but Jil Teichmann was able to pull out the big guns for Switzerland and pull them out against a Bianca Andreescu-less Canada (the defending U.S. Open champ was slated to play doubles, but didn't have to take the court). And two-time Slam winner Naomi Osaka committed fifty errors against upstart Sara Sorribes Tormo, while veteran and soon-to-be-retiree Carla Suarez Navarro was surgical in her two wins, lifting Spain above Japan, 3-1.

But the more interesting results came in the closer ties. Russia was surprisingly challenged by Romania, who was playing without Simona Halep -- while early 2020 standout Ekaterina Alexandrova managed wins in her singles matches, world #38 Veronika Kudermetova was upset in both of her rubbers. Russia eked out the win in doubles in order to advance. The Netherlands, on the other hand, wasn't able to capitalize on the success of their top star -- while world #8 Kiki Bertens was able to win on her own, beating a recently struggling Aryna Sabalenka on day two, the Belorussian doubles specialist was able to rally with partner Aliaksandra Sasnovich to clinch the decider.

Of course, though, all eyes were on the U.S., which brought some serious firepower to their tie: newly-minted Melbourne champion Sofia Kenin, perennial heavyweight Serena Williams, rising star Alison Riske, and everyone's favorite teen Coco Gauff. They were the clear favorites against Latvia and got off to a strong start on Friday with Kenin easing past former world #11 Anastasija Sevastova and Serena eking out a two-tiebreak victory over 2017 French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko (who, by the way hasn't won a single main draw match at Roland Garros outside that breakout year). But things turned around sharply Saturday as both Americans lost their reverse matches, Williams getting stunned by Sevastova in three sets for her first ever Fed Cup singles defeat. But as is so often the case, Kenin had to get right back to work for her third match in two days, teaming up with her Australian Open doubles partner Bethanie Mattek-Sands to decide the win.

Do the results this weekend give a broader picture of the state of these players' games? Maybe. Kenin's played a lot of ball this year, so it makes sense she might be a little exhausted. On the other hand, I'm a little surprised to see Serena's less-than-dominating performance and Osaka's messy match. As for the players who stood out -- Alexandrova's solid results certainly suggest her ranking is only climbing from here, while Bertens can certainly use her wins to shore up her season. We'll get a better idea of where everyone stands in the next few weeks, of course. And hopefully, by the time they're back on court for their countries in a couple month's time, hopefully they'll come out swinging.

Blogcast: 2015 French Open Preview

Rafael Nadal's dominance at Roland Garros could be at risk as Novak Djokovic goes for the career Grand Slam. Serena Williams looks to make a winning return in Paris, while Maria Sharapova hopes she can finally take out her long-time rival. There's sure to be a lot to talk about at this year's French Open.

Serving Notice

We've seen a lot of new faces on the winners' blocks over the last few weeks. But with the French Open now just a week away, a couple players took their opportunity to make a real statement in Rome. And it might have been the perfect time to do it.

Carla Suarez Navarro has long been a threat on the clay courts, but it seems she's really only coming into her own now. After finally picking up her first career title last year, she's quietly sneaked into the top ten on the heels of a stellar run to the championship match in Miami. And this week in Italy she was equally impressive, taking out, in turn, Genie Bouchard, Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep on the way to her third final of the year. Not a bad showing as she looks to improve on her run to the quarterfinals in Paris last year.

But ultimately CSN ran into a slightly more immovable force in Maria Sharapova, who in a week will set out to defend her Roland Garros title. She'd been a little more quiet than usual this clay court season, losing her opener in Stuttgart and getting shocked in the Madrid semis by Svetlana Kuznetsova. But she made it through the Rome draw without losing a set, even against real threats like Victoria Azarenka and young Daria Gavrilova, who beat her just a few months ago on the American hard courts. She started off shaky Sunday though, letting the Spaniard get an early lead and even giving back a break in the second set -- but she was able to fight back, rolling through the decider and after more than two and a half hours finally sealed the win. It was her third title in Rome and her second of the season. But after so many close calls this year, this one really seems to put her back on the map.

The men's draw in Rome shook out a little more as you'd expect -- while there were certainly a couple upsets along the way, the top two seeds were the ones eventually showing down in Sunday's final. Roger Federer, who'd backed up his first red clay title in six years with a shocking loss to Nick Kyrgios in his Madrid opener, was quick to rebound. He easily took out both Tomas Berdych and compatriot Stan Wawrinka to make his fifth final of the year. With such dominating games against the sport's best it's not that long a shot to expect him to keep it up in Paris.

Of course there's one man who stands in his way. World #1 Novak Djokovic had taken it easy for most of this clay court season, skipping Madrid and smaller events after picking up a second trophy in Monte Carlo. He seemed a little rusty to start, though -- riding a seventeen match winning streak coming in to Rome, he dropped sets to both Nicolas Almagro and Thomaz Bellucci in his early rounds. He even survived a test against Kei Nishikori, the man who vanquished him in New York just last year. Against Federer in the final, though, he was at the top of his game -- he dropped just a handful of points on serve, fended off seven aces from his opponent and saved the only break point he faced. After just over an hour he'd dismissed the all-time great, putting him back just a game away from tying their all-time head-to-head. But, more importantly, with just a few days before he makes another go at capturing his very first French Open -- and becoming the third active player on the ATP to complete the career Grand Slam -- he may have cemented his place as the real favorite this time and set himself on a course to really change history.

There are only a few days left before the first shots are taken at Roland Garros this year, and both this weekend's champions and runners-up have shown they mean real business in Paris. The road ahead will certainly be full of challenges, but it seems all of them have proven they're more than up to the task.

And maybe this year they'll finally be able to overcome the biggest obstacles they've faced their entire careers.

Where to Begin...?!

Wow, I am really far behind, huh?

But things sure got interesting in the last few days of the Miami Open, that I can't help but react, even a few days after the champions were crowned. Sure, maybe we should have expected that Serena and Nole would come out on top, but there were nevertheless a couple surprising faces hanging around late in the tournament. And their showings could bode very well for them the rest of the year.

I've been talking for a while about how impressive John Isner's been over the last few weeks, but he really exceeded expectations in Miami. After stunning Milos Raonic in the fourth round, he pulled off a solid upset over Kei Nishikori in the quarters, his second top-ten defeat of the tournament. He had a shot at Novak Djokovic in Friday's semis, but after dropping the first in a tight tiebreak, he was fairly demolished in the second. Tomas Berdych had a shot against Andy Murray too -- in a rematch of their Australian Open semi, a match to which he'd brought a 6-4 record -- but fell short for a second straight time, succumbing to superb serving from the Brit and falling short of another run to the final here.

But ultimately we were treated to a repeat of the Melbourne final, with Murray trying to end a streak of six straight losses to the world #1. And having scored his milestone five-hundredth career win in the fourth round, he looked ready to keep his momentum going. He pushed the defending champ to a first set tiebreak, and then got the decisive break in the second to force a third. But Nole, as he so often does, found his motivation when he needed it most -- in the deciding set he blanked the third seed, finally finishing off the match in just under three hours and picking up the elusive Indian Wells/Miami combo for the third time in his career. It marks title #3 for the season, too, and guarantees him the top ranking at least through Wimbledon. But with some inspired performances from so many others in the field this week, there may be a couple out there ready to give him a run for his money.

The women's draw wasn't without its surprises either. With players like world #2 Maria Sharapova, former champ Aga Radwanska and even in-form Caroline Wozniacki all getting upset, the bottom half of the bracket was decimated pretty early during the event. That opened the door for two unlikely semifinalists to make a play for the title. Andrea Petkovic, a little spotty this year despite a title in Antwerp, notched wins over Ekaterina Makarova and red hot Karolina Pliskova during her run. But she was ultimately stopped short by a resurgent Carla Suarez Navarro, who'd pulled out of the Antwerp final but scored two wins over Petra Kvitova already this season and took a set off eventual champion Simona Halep in Indian Wells. In Miami she scored her third win over veteran Venus Williams in the quarters, precluding a much anticipated match-up between the two sisters.

She was thoroughly outmatched in the final though -- Serena, who'd survived quite a squeaker against Halep on Thursday, was coming off a tight two-hour long semi before reaching the weekend's championship. But the seven-time champion didn't seem too fatigued after the fight -- she lost just two games in the fifty-six minute match, handing the Spaniard the fifth bagel set in their five meetings. With a record eighth title in Miami, she's certainly shown she's not ready to cede her spot at the top any time soon -- but performances from the rest of the semifinal field may give us some clue as to who's ready to take over when she does.

The Consolation Prize?

It's not quite over for the ladies -- this week eight(-ish) of the year's International-event titleists who didn't quite qualify for the WTA Championships in Singapore got a chance to pick up one more trophy before the season ended. And while all these ladies have shown their capable of big things this season, some of the results we've seen so far in Sofia aren't what you'd expect.

In the "Serdika" Group, top seed and Singapore alternate Ekaterina Makarova suffered two straight-set losses before pulling out with a back injury, allowing Karolina Pliskova entry into the Bronze-Medal event. Meanwhile it's the lowest-ranked player in the section, 2014 standout Garbiñe Muguruza who's really shining. She dropped just three games to Makarova in their opener, and then came back from a bagel set against Indian Wells champ Flavia Pennetta to take the next two, 6-1, 6-1. She'll face off against Katowice titleist Alizé Cornet today, but with a win in the pair's only meeting two years ago, the Spaniard could put up a perfect record in the round robins.

No one's been as spotless in the "Sredets" Group, though Australian Open runner-up Dominika Cibulkova came pretty close. After a string of surprising losses since the spring -- Vitalkia Diatchenko in Moscow, Cici Bellis in New York -- I wasn't expecting too much from her at the Tournament of Champions, but she took out both Tsvetana Pironkova and Carla Suarez Navarro in straight sets. But after last night's loss to Andrea Petkovic, herself trying to end a slump since her French Open semifinal, she stands now just in second place in the section, making today's final round robin between Pironkova and CSN so much more important. The Spaniard, who won her first career crown in Oeiras way back in May and then went largely silent, had a pretty easy win over Petkovic on Tuesday and could leapfrog over other players in her group if she gets the better of the Russian.

The stakes in Sofia may not be as high as they were last week, but for the ladies looking for redemption the pressure is certainly on. After all, players like Ana Ivanovic and Simona Halep have won the Tournament of Champions in the past, and their careers have been on steady upward trajectories since. And while the 2014 season may be close to wrapping up, any of these ladies could use a win her to get next year off to a great start.

Take a Step Back

It's that weird time in the tennis season again, where -- after a month of playing on grass and several weeks still before the final hardcourt Major of the year -- we're forced to turn the clocks back a few weeks and revisit the clay court action of the spring. And the change of scenery may have suited some more than others.

To be fair, Phillipp Kohlscreiber's bad luck in Stuttgart wasn't entirely his fault -- the hometown favorite was the victim of a schedule marred by nearly two days of rain and had to play back to back matches today to start his Mercedes Cup campaign. After completing his opener against Jan-Lennard Struff, he fell in two tight sets to giant-killer Lukas Rosol. Some lower seeds have made a better transition back to dirt, though. Barcelona runner-up Santiago Giraldo, who beat both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray in Rome, fell quickly to Roger Federer at Wimbledon. He seems to have gotten back on track this week -- after an easy win over qualifier Mate Delic in his opener he stayed tough after dropping a second set tiebreak today to ultimately set up a quarterfinal against top seed Fabio Fognini. And Federico Delbonis, who hadn't won a match since his Cinderella run to the Nice final, turned his luck around too. After ousting veteran Juan Monaco in his first round, he came back from a set down against Benjamin Becker, and will now face a struggling Mikhail Youzhny for a spot in the semis. And with some big wins in both their pockets already this year, either could make a real run for this title.

Over in Sweden it's some less-surprising names that most benefit from the switch of surfaces. Last year's French Open finalist David Ferrer suffered an inglorious defeat at the hands of then-#118 Andrey Kuznetsov in his Wimbledon second round and needed to rebound on the clay of Bastad, and he's off to a good start. He needed just over an hour to dispatch Victor Hanescu earlier today and though Carlos Berlocq will certainly present a bigger challenge in next, the Argentine has lost opening sets in his last two matches and should be easily handled. And countryman Fernando Verdasco, almost a semifinalist last year at the All England Club, fell quite a bit earlier this time around. But the Spaniard has won four of his six titles on clay, and after taking out Albert Ramos-Viñolas Thursday, he shouldn't face any real challenge until the final. Meanwhile last year's Wimbledon standout Jerzy Janowicz has had a little more trouble -- he played three five-set matches this year at the All England Club and only won two of them. Now out of the top fifty, he didn't make a strong case to move back up the rankings this week and lost his opener to one of this season's up-and-comers Dusan Lajovic. He'll need to pull his game together a bit better once he hits the hardcourts if he wants to show he belongs among the elite.

Slightly more consistent this year, Simona Halep didn't exactly have a disappointing Wimbledon, but with a 5-1 record against the other semifinalists she arguably blew her best recent chance at claiming that first Grand Slam crown -- and it's a bit of a let-down since her stellar run in Paris. She seems to have her groove back in Bucharest -- she's needed about two and a half hours to dismiss her first two opponents and with many of the other seeds falling early, she's the heavy favorite in the field. Petra Cetkovska has a little more heavy lifting to do -- the one time fourth-rounder at the All England Club has almost tripled her all-time high ranking of #25 in the world, but she's had some well-fought wins this week in Romania. And as one of the few seeds left in the draw, she has a real shot at making it to the final. I originally thought Silvia Soler-Espinosa did too -- the twenty-three year old Spaniard reached the final in Strasbourg as a qualifier and defeated Yanina Wickmayer to make the third round in Paris. Against still-struggling Roberta Vinci today, I figured her as the favorite, but after taking the opening set she eventually succumbed to the second seed -- maybe not an on-paper upset, but certainly a squandered opportunity.

Perhaps, though, the most surprising loss by a clay court specialist this week was that of my Roland Garros dark horse Carla Suarez Navarro. Having finally won her maiden title on the dirt at the start of May, she seemed to have broken the seal and, though she experienced an understandable loss early at Wimbledon, I expected her to do a bit better in Bad Gastein. But after being pushed to three sets by qualifier Laura Siegemund, she lost quickly today to world #147 Shelby Rogers. Other seeds have been performing a little better in Austria. Camila Giorgi, who's taking out big names like Maria Sharapova in Indian Wells and Victoria Azarenka in Eastbourne, is the most immediate beneficiary of CSN's early exit and might finally be able to put a loner string of wins together. And Sara Errani, who's cut her teeth on this surface with seven titles on clay, may be able to end his year-long trophy-less streak -- she hasn't dropped a set yet in her first two matches here, and with so much of the draw cleared out for her, she's by far the favorite left in the field. And if she can capitalize on that status she might just be able to make a move back into the top ten.

Of course, we should expect that the players who've seen their best results on clay to be most successful this week too -- but clearly it takes a little something extra to shift as seamlessly as these guys and gals have done. Whether they can ride their momentum to titles this weekend remains to be seen -- but more importantly, hopefully it bodes well for what we'll see from them in the weeks and months to come.

10 Things Update: About a Week In...

Didn't I tell you things were going to get crazy at the French Open?

Since Day One we've seen some shocking upsets, the exit of champions and the rise of some unexpected stars. And as the rounds progressed, the surprises continued.

All that action tore quite a few holes in my wish list for Roland Garros. But while I may have gotten some of the details wrong, a couple themes still hold, so I thought it appropriate, as we kick off the last day of the first week, to revisit the things I'd like to have happen this fortnight, and nominate a few new candidates that now seem to fit the bill.

10. A dubious seed proves his worth

Well this was a tricky ask from the start. Roberta Vinci lost her opener, bringing her record on the year to an unimpressive 7-15. And while Jerzy Janowicz's loss in the third round to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was expected, he certainly should be able to pull off those upsets. Sorana Cirstea has a slightly better shot -- though she'll technically be the underdog against Jelena Jankovic in today's third round, she's won both their meetings on clay and might be able to keep things in her favor.

Hopefully the same can be hold true for twenty-fourth seed Fernando Verdasco, who's survived through his first two rounds by the skin of his teeth. One of the few men who've defeated Rafael Nadal on clay, the Spaniard picked up his first title in almost four years in Houston, but had otherwise put together a middling 10-8 record on the year. This week he toughed it out against Mikhail Kukushkin in his opener, and had to come back after losing his first to sets to Pablo Cuevas late on Thursday. He'll have to raise his game higher versus Richard Gasquet in his next round, and if he does manage a win he'd likely face off next against Andy Murray -- no easy task. Still a few more surprises would do a lot to reinforce his ranking, and maybe even help him improve.

I've been even more impressed by Sloane Stephens, interestingly the only American woman left at the French. The world #19 was dead even in her 2014 record before Paris and had notched just one win over a top seventy player on clay this year. But she survived a test from Shaui Peng in her opener and only dropped serve once against Polona Hercog on Thursday. She'll be the higher seed when she meets Ekaterina Makarova today, but the Russian will be the biggest threat she's faced yet this week. It won't be an easy win, by any means, but if she gets it done, it could certainly right her career this season.

And John Isner, almost always a tenuous seed at the Majors, has so far lived up to his on-paper reputation. He's lost on dirt this year to the likes of Federico Delbonis, Jurgen Melzer and, most discouraging, then-#101 Dustin Brown, and with less than a fifty percent win record on this surface, I wasn't expecting him to do too much at Roland Garros. Admittedly he's been scraping by this first week -- in eleven sets he's played eight tiebreaks -- but he stuck it out versus veteran Tommy Robredo on Friday. The stakes get higher from here, of course, but even as the tenth seed here, the run to his first fourth round in Paris seems impressive. Even if he loses to Tomas Berdych next, I'll be happy with what he's done.

9. An underdog follows through

All my original picks in this section, unfortunately, have had to book their tickets home -- Jeremy Chardy and Dominic Thiem both won their openers, but ran into the two favorites in the second rounds, Novak Djokovic and eight-time champion Rafael Nadal, respectively. Camila Giorgi had a slightly better shot at advancing, facing totally beatable 2009 titleist Svetlana Kuznetsova on Thursday.

But others have so far kept their cool after exacting big wins. Kristina Mladenovic, who shocked 2011 champ Na Li in the first round, battled through an injury timeout to make her first Paris third round. While she faces a tough Andrea Petkovic for a spot in the sweet sixteen, the German struggled in her last match too and the Frenchwoman could take advantage. On the men's side, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez suffered little fatigue after ousting Melbourne winner Stan Wawrinka in his first round. He had a little hiccup on Thursday, but delivered a fourth set bagel to Adrian Mannarino to close out that match. And with a third round meeting with streaky Donald Young, I like his chances of making it into Week Two.

8. A breakout has a breakthrough

This one was also almost totally a farce. Caroline Garcia and Donna Vekic both lost their openers, and while Jiri Vesely lasted a round longer, he couldn't keep leads he had on Milos Raonic in their second round. Roberto Bautista-Agut, too, the group's best shot at delivering, didn't repeat his Indian Wells triumph over Tomas Berdych, falling on Friday in four sets.

Meanwhile, Garbine Muguruza seems to have recaptured the fire she had to start the year. After picking up her first career title in Hobart and defeating Caroline Wozniacki on her way to the Melbourne fourth round, she went a little quiet during the spring. But she sure turned up the volume in Paris, shocking Serena Williams in an hour-long, straight-set victory on Wednesday, and following up by dismissing fellow upset-causer Anna Schmiedlova yesterday. She'll face unseeded Pauline Parmentier, playing her first ever Major fourth round, for a spot in the quarters, and maybe she can ride that momentum even farther.

7. A fish jumps out of water

South Africa's Kevin Anderson is the only one still alive among this bunch, so it'd be great to see him continue to keep one of my calls alive. To be fair, the nineteenth seed hasn't had the toughest couple rounds, opening against Austranlian Cinderella Stephane Robert and facing wildcard Alex Michon in the second round, but he hasn't dropped a set yet. And while he faces another big server in Ivo Karlovic today, he won the pair's last meeting in Delray and could get the momentum he needs to improve on his fourth round showing here from last year.

6. Hard work is paid off

While most in this section have also fallen earlier than I'd have liked, Fabio Fognini has been impressive in his first two rounds of play, against two very solid opponents -- Andreas Beck has picked up a couple Challenger trophies this year and Thomaz Bellucci, coming back from injury, has won all three of his titles on clay. Fognini, though, a quarterfinalist here in 2011 took care of them both and will face off against former top-ten player Gael Monfils next. He is the on-paper favorite in this match, and holds a winning 3-2 record over the Frenchman, so he should be able to advance. Whether he can repeat his Cinderella run from three years ago still remains to be seen, but I kind of like his chances.

5. A phoenix rises

I feel a little bad about this one -- my original wish list came out the morning before news broke of Caroline Wozniacki's split with that dude, and she of course did not rebound quite as quickly as he did. I'll put my money on her for next time though.

But my other picks are still alive and kicking. Former world #1 Jelena Jankovic dropped the first set she played here, but quickly recovered to take out Sharon Fichman and after a tight opener against Rio champ Kurumi Nara, she delivered a bagel in the second round. She's lost both of her meetings with third round opponent Sorana Cirstea on clay, though, so she might have to pick up her game a little. Meanwhile compatriot Ana Ivanovic is looking even stronger. She survived what could have been a big challenge from Caroline Garcia in her opener and handily dispatched Ukrainian teenager Elina Svitolina on Thursday. While Petra Kvitova is the favorite in her immediate section of the draw, and world #4 Simona Halep cannot be ignored, I wouldn't be surprised if the Serb really took this opportunity to make a statement.

4. A runner-up repeats (or goes one better...)

Dominika Cibulkova is so far the only one in this group who's been knocked out, though, to be fair she's also the only one who's played her third round.

But after a little blip in her opener, 2012 finalist Sara Errani came back strong to take out young American Madison Keys and advanced over Dinah Pfizenmaier with little drama. She'll meet Israel's Julia Glushko, barely ranked in the double digits next, and should be the heavy favorite. And last year's runner-up David Ferrer hasn't dropped a set in his first two matches, spending under three-and-a-half hours on court so far. He'll face Andreas Seppi on Saturday, a man who very nearly beat Novak Djokovic here two season's ago, but the Italian's game has fallen a bit and should prove little trouble to the world #5.

Whether either can ride early successes to another final in Paris -- well, I'm not sure. But with the draws clearing out so much over the first couple days, there's no reason not to hold out hope.

3. A first-time Major winner is crowned

Kei Nishikori knocked himself out of the running here early, but both Carla Suarez Navarro and Tomas Berdych have reached the fourth round already, the latter having avenged that shocking Indian Wells loss to then-unknown Roberto Bautista-Agut. And while the Czech has a little more experience on the big stage -- he made the semis here in 2010, just before stunning Roger Federer on his way to the Wimbledon final -- the Spanish señorita is in a wide-open section of the draw and could be the big beneficiary of that.

But perhaps Milos Raonic has established himself as another spoiler here. Somewhat surprisingly, the world #9 has never gotten out of the third round in Paris, and he barely did this time either -- after having to come back from breaks against upstart Jiri Vesely in his second round, he got down sets to hometown favorite Gilles Simon twice on Friday -- and nearly squandered a lead in the fifth -- before finally closing out the three-plus hour match. He's in the same section of the draw as Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych, so even if he makes his first Major quarterfinal he'll have his work cut out for him. Still it seems inevitable the Canadian will eventually win a Slam, so why not get things going now.

2. MaSha doubles up

This was sort of a long shot when I first wrote it, but with Serena's exit in the early rounds, not only have Maria Sharapova's prospects in Paris improved, she might have just established herself as the favorite.

Sure, there are still a couple higher seeds left in the draw, but only Petra Kvitova has ever won a Slam before and Jelena Jankovic is the only other one to even play in a final -- and both those runs feel like they came decades ago. Meanwhile Sharapova is coming off wins in Stuttgart and Madrid, and her double bagel over Paula Ormaechea in her third round Friday shows she's far from tired. She'll meet Sam Stosur for a spot in the quarters, and the 2010 runner-up has been launching a comeback of her own in recent weeks. But Maria's only lost two of the the pair's fifteen career meetings, and something tells me she's not going to let that number change anytime soon.

1. Rafa takes home #9

After his performance during his first two matches I'm breathing a little easier than before. Rafael Nadal has only lost ten games so far at the French Open, fewer than anyone else in the men's field, and with the promise of facing no seeds until at least the quarters, he's unlikely to drop many more in the immediate future. Still with one major exception, the men's draw hasn't been nearly as decimated as the ladies' and big threats still loom from the likes of Roger Federer, David Ferrer and even Andy Murray.

Of course Novak Djokovic, with the career Grand Slam and a #1 ranking on the line, continues to hold the best odds of turning the world upside down. While he did drop a tiebreak in his Friday third round, he's faced noticeably tougher challenges -- barely unseeded Jeremy Chardy and always tricky Marin Cilic -- and he's set to meet last year's semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round. But he's got the stamina to power through these tests, and I fully expect to see him challenge Rafa come finals weekend.

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With a little more than a week left at this year's French Open, there's still plenty of opportunity for my revised wish list to be dashed again. Still, we've seen some impressive results from the favorites and the underdogs alike, and as we enter Week Two at Roland Garros the titles really do seem up for grabs.

So let's hope the excitement we see over the coming days matches that we saw in early rounds. And that the eventual champions deliver performances that live up to the standards already set.

Sixth Time's a Charm?

The ladies taking the court in Oeiras really shook things up from the start, this week, didn't they?

Third seeded Sam Stosur, one of the most accomplished players in the field, lost her opener to world #165 Timea Bacsinszky, a woman who's spent most of the last three years rehabbing on the ITF Tour, and Lucie Safarova, who so nearly beat eventual Stuttgart titleist Maria Sharapova in that first round, bowed out early in Portugal to Polona Hercog. Other favorites got a little further, but eventually Melbourne Cinderella Genie Bouchard and Roberta Vinci -- whose two match wins this week was her best performance all season -- were also sent packing.

All that leaves two somewhat unlikely players to contest tomorrow's championship match.

Former world #2 Svetlana Kuznetsova has won thirteen trophies in her long career and she'ss laid claim to two Grand Slams. But she's lost the only final she's played since 2010 and has fallen a bit down the rankings since. She did manage to climb back last year after injury, reaching later rounds in Tokyo and Moscow, and last week in Stuttgart survived red-hot Simona Halep in two tight sets. She maintained a low seed in Oerias, but upset Bouchard in the quarters and earlier today barreled through compatriot Elena Vesnina in just over an hour. She hasn't won a title in almost four years, though, so she may be a little rough in tomorrow's match. And that could be just the opening her opponent needs.

Carla Suarez Navarro has had some big wins during her career -- she stunned Venus Williams at the 2009 Australian Open and reached the quarters in New York with a win over Angelique Kerber last year -- but despite five previous final appearances, all on what should be her best surface, she's never won a title. But this time one thing is different -- the Spaniard is just off her career high ranking, and tomorrow will be the first time she faces someone ranked lower than her for the crown. She hasn't dropped a set yet, either, and won her opening two matches in under an hour each. Today's match against Irina-Camelia Begu was her first real test, and though she was pushed to a tiebreak to start, she rolled through the second set decisively to reach her third consecutive final in the former Estoril. It won't be easy of course - CSN's only gotten one win in her previous four meetings with the Russian, and one of Sveta's Majors did, after all, come on clay -- but she's arguably playing the better ball these days, and with all her earlier attempts coming up short, she might finally have the momentum and the motivation to get things done this time around.

It wouldn't be the longest streak of finals with no title, of course -- just last year, after all, Elena Vesnina ended a run of six trophy-less campaigns in Hobart -- but breaking it now, at such a prime juncture in her career, could put Suarez Navarro on a new path. With the French Open around the corner -- an event at which she's only won one match in her entire career -- she'll want to prove she has the goods. A victory tomorrow would only be the first step to bigger and better things, of course, but once she breaks the seal, there's no telling what she could be able to do.

The Surprise Factor

Here's the thing about clay -- you really never know what's going to happen. Ever.

And this weekend a couple players proved they could get down and dirty, even when facing competition much more accomplished on the surface.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova had won all four of her previous titles on hardcourts and had only once made it into the second week of the French Open. The Russian progressed through the draw by the skin of her teeth -- she needed three sets to get through both Elena Vesnina and virtually unknown Romina Oprandi, dropping a bagel to the Swiss in the semis. Meanwhile her opponent in the Oeiras final this weekend, young Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro, was practically raised on the dirt. Though she hadn't yet won a title in her career, she had played for four championships on clay, even getting to the final Saturday in Portugal last year. Her road to this final had been smooth as well -- she hadn't dropped a set all week and easily ousted a resurgent Kaia Kanepi in the last four.

She had a leg up against Pavs in the final, too, breaking her opponent in the first service game and giving her trouble on serve throughout early play. But Anastasia had won the pair's previous four meetings and wasn't about to end her streak. After a visit from new coach, soon-to-be Hall of Famer Martina Hingis, the third seed was able to regroup -- she fought back from the deficit and dominated throughout the second set. After just over ninety minutes, the more experienced lady was left holding the trophy, pulling her to 5-2 in WTA finals. CSN falls to a less impressive 0-5, but her ability on these courts can't be ignored -- today she turned right around to win her Madrid first round against Sam Stosur, so hope is clearly not lost. And her strength only makes Pavs' accomplishment more noteworthy -- if she can win here, afterall, who knows where else she'll thrive.

The results in the men's event might have been even more impressive. David Ferrer, a long-time staple in the top ten and often hailed as the best player without a Grand Slam title, is a more-than-intimidating 247-100 on clay and has won fully half of his twenty titles on the surface. He'd already won two crowns this season, but injury hampered his play since the American hardcourt season and he was pushed to a third set in his Oeiras opener. Still, against Stanislas Wawrinka, relatively middling at 64% on clay, he was the clear favorite in Sunday's final. The Swiss had pulled off a huge win over Andy Murray in Monte Carlo last month and reached the semis in Casablanca already, but he was tested from the start in Portugal -- he lost his opening set to Albert Ramos, was forced to a decider by qualifying upstart Pablo Carreno-Busta in the semis.

But he was ultimately better rested going into Sunday's final. Wawrinka ran away with the first set and didn't allow a break opportunity during the hour-long match. It was his first top-ten win of the season and secured his fourth career title with a 6-1, 6-4 victory. For a guy who's struggled to deliver a big impact on the big stages -- he was half of the most epic match of the 2013 Australian Open, but ultimately lost after five hours of play -- this might just have gained him ground in his efforts.

This weekend's victors in Portugal certainly had to pull off some big wins to get their trophies, and the fact that they did so against some of the strongest players on these courts makes it even more sweet. Whether these wins translate into greater successes once the stakes are raised remains to be seen, but if their performances so far is any indication, all the favorites better sit up and take notice.

Like it Was Only Yesterday...

So it's been a couple weeks since I've had a chance to post something, and now that I'm here again it sure seems like we've turned the clocks back a lot farther that even that.

Things got a little crazy for a minute or two -- Murray started winning Majors, Serena started losing finals, and some of the strongest players in years past started to struggle a bit. But with the results the last few weeks, order may have been restored.

Petra Kvitova had been a stone's throw from the #1 ranking just over a year ago, but was largely overshadowed by her contemporaries for most of the 2012 season. With illness marring her performance at the year-end championships and a couple early round losses to start 2013, she'd dropped a couple ranking points before coming to Dubai two weeks ago. But she upped her game when it counted in the UAE -- after dominating Aggie Radwanska in the quarters she easily ended former #1 Caroline Wozniacki's comeback run a round later. She was the clear favorite against clay-court specialist Sara Errani in the final, and when tested by the spirited Italian, she rose to the task and closed out the match in impressive form. It was her first title since New Haven last year and did a lot to put her back on the radar among the sport's elite -- if she can bring that momentum with her the rest of the year, it might not be long before we see her holding up the big trophies again.

Errani's disappointment didn't last long, though. It would have been easy to write off her stellar 2012 season as a fluke -- she'd already lost two finals this year and failed to defend points from last year's Australian Open. But when she returned this week to Acapulco, the site that kicked off her ascendance to the top ten, she found that spark which has made her such a force on Tour. Ranked well above the rest of the field in Mexico, she shouldn't have had much trouble at all, but given reason stumbles that wasn't enough to seal in the win. But the slight star hardly missed a beat during the event -- with only one of her ten sets going as far as a tiebreak, she rolled through early rounds and won the first seven games of the match against second-seeded Carla Suarez Navarro in the final. Though the second set was tighter and Errani's serve started to slump a bit, she eventually closed out the win in just over an hour and a half, winning her seventh career title and hopefully silencing those naysayers who complained she wouldn't be able to repeat her successes. She hasn't been out of the spotlight quite as long as Kvitova, but hopefully her performance this week will help keep her in it a bit longer.

The gentlemen were not immune from similar comebacks the last few weeks. One-time world #21 Ernests Gulbis has been largely off the radar the last few years as injury cut short a couple of seasons -- but he worked his way back through Challenger events and qualifying draws and eventually was able to make an impact again on the big stage. This week in Delray Beach he opened with a win over my dear James Blake and followed it up by defeating quickly climbing American Sam Querrey. He was taken to a third set by uber-veteran Tommy Haas in the semis too, but after surviving one test after another he was treated to a relative easy final against Edouard Roger-Vasselin today. Though the pair traded breaks through the first set, Gulbis finally got lead in a tiebreak and never looked back. It was his second championship in Florida, the site of his first title three years ago. It may not be enough to push him back to the top right away, but it could just give him enough confidence to return there soon.

And while all these players made huge strides to get themselves back on the radar, perhaps the most impressive run we've seen the last few weeks came from a man who never really fell that far down the rankings anyway. Rafael Nadal had been missing from Tour since that fateful Wimbledon second round, and his long-awaited return stopped somewhat shortly when he lost in the Viña Del Mar final to little-known Horacio Zeballos. But he rallied after defeat, winning a title a week later in Sao Paulo after suffering through two three-set nail-biters. This week he finished off his Golden Swing in Acapulco where, as the second seed, he got straight-set revenge over Martin Alund -- one of the men who'd troubled him in Brazil -- and positively dominated top seed David Ferrer in the final, dropping just two games in the hour-long championship. Things will be a little more difficult for Rafa when he's off the clay the next few weeks, but it's nice to see him thriving on the surface that made him a star. And having proven he can still beat the best, it sure bodes well for him once Roland Garros training really kicks in.

With the last few weeks bringing stars big and small back into the spotlight they occupied not so far in the past, it might not be long before we see some big shake-ups among the top ranks. Those that have recently been strongest will have to watch their backs, it seems, and up their games if they're going to compete among these resurgents. And as long as they keep up their games, there's no telling what they can do for the rest of the season.

Stopped Short

It's got to be a little disheartening for a tennis player, just putting together the momentum to launch a comeback, successfully pulling off a huge win at a tournament, and then having the wind sucked out of her a match or two later. Many of the ladies in Beijing this week have fallen victim to just that trend, and that's allowed some interesting names to make their way into the quarterfinals.

Ana Ivanovic isn't exactly an underdog at the China Open -- seeded eleventh here, she's coming off her first Major quarterfinal since 2008 and is at her highest ranking in three years. Still, she hasn't beaten a top ten player since Indian Wells, and was dealt a pretty tough draw from the start in Beijing. Ana opened against Christina McHale, a rematch of her Olympic first round, and got a challenge from new U.S. #2 Varvara Lepchenko a match later. Having survived these threats, she might have expected smooth sailing for a while, but world #69 Romina Oprandi had other plans.

The Swiss miss had lost three straight matches since the U.S. Open, but came to China with an agenda. She dispatched rising star Urszula Radwanska in her opener and avoided a second round against French Open finalist Sara Errani, who retired in her first match. She raised her game further against Ivanovic in today's match, taking advantage of weak serving from the Serb and actually winning more points on return than in her own game. After just over an hour, she'd notched her biggest win of the year and secured a spot in her first Tour-level quarter since last June. It'll only get tougher from here, of course -- she'll likely face world #1 Victoria Azarenka next -- but the veteran has proven she can still hit with the big girls and might just be able to make an even bigger statement this week.

Julia Goerges seemed to be in a bit of a sophomore slump after her breakout 2011 season. After reaching a career-high ranking at #15 this past March, she failed to defend clay court points during the spring and fell in the first round of the U.S. Open. She survived a scare against Vania King in her Beijing first round, but seemed to save face against rival Sam Stosur in the second. The German had won the pair's first two meetings, and though the fellow dirt specialist got revenge this year in Stuttgart, Goerges was able to turn the tide back in her favor in a two-and-a-half hour, three set win on Tuesday.

Her success would not last long, however. Ninth-seeded Marion Bartoli, who's play can be a little manic at times, had had a decent 2012 -- she was the first player of the season to beat Victoria Azarenka in Miami, made the final at two events, reached the quarters in New York, and very nearly ended a long losing streak to Maria Sharapova. Today she was relentless against Goerges, with eight aces and seven doubles, she was the aggressor and took down her opponent for the second straight week. She's certainly no stranger to the latter stages of an event, but her third round dominance may make her a bigger force than others realize.

Former world #1 Jelena Jankovic is striving to get back to that same level. Having fallen out of the top twenty in May, she's 1-9 against top-fifteen players this year and has racked up fourteen opening round losses -- I won't mention how many times she's squandered match points again. Well out of seeding territory these days, she also faced a tough draw in Beijing, but stayed tough against comeback story Andrea Petkovic to start and demolished a struggling Monica Niculescu on Tuesday to reach the third round. She seemed to be getting her act together again and, like compatriot Ana before her, should have bought herself a little breathing room.

But Carla Suarez Navarro was quick to put an end to the Serb's momentum. Dealing with her own set of injuries over the past two years, the teeny Spaniard had already scored wins over the likes of Sabine Lisicki and Sam Stosur this year and had made her way to the final in Estoril, her first since 2010. She'd already marked moral victory in Beijing, taking out Petra Kvitova in the second round, but kept her cool against JJ today. In a somewhat ugly display -- neither lady won even half of her service points and together they lost serve sixteen times -- Suarez Navarro was able to save just slightly more of the twenty-three break points she faced and eked out the win in just under two hours. She'll need to do better against Bartoli in her next round, but if she is able to clean up her game, she might just be able to catch the Frenchwoman by surprise.

It would have been nice to see the players looking to regroup this week really put an end to recent slumps, but with subsequent losses the roads to their revival seemed to take some unfortunate turns. Hopefully they'll be able to turn things around during the balance of the year -- after all, they've each proven they're still capable of pulling off some big wins.

Now they just needed to do it over and over.

Finding Their Motivation

This year has been a coming out party of sorts for some ladies on the WTA Tour, while others have struggled to gain the footing they once had. A couple have been more successful than the rest, and with a few women who've most recently shown their greatest potential facing off against those who've yet to really break through at this weekend's finals, we could set the course for the next several months, or change things entirely. And everyone's got a reason to win.

Elena Vesnina has spent the last several years cultivating her game on the doubles circuit, making the final at a Major in each of the last three years, including mixed in Melbourne a few months back, and has captured a few other big titles along the way. But she's struggled in singles, reaching the championship round at a handful of events, but never walking away with a crown. She'll have her sixth chance tomorrow in Budapest, where the Russian has already dispatched three seeds during the week. She hasn't dropped a set yet, and earlier today took out fifth seeded Marina Erakovic, losing serve just once in the barely ninety-minute match. It's her best performance all year -- she won more matches in Romania than she has all season -- and if she has a little more gas left in the tank, it could get her climbing the ranks the rest of the year.

It'll be a rough road for her, though, as one of the hottest players on Tour still stands in her way. Sara Errani only broke the top thirty about a month ago, but with two titles under her belt already in 2012, she's currently ninth in the race to the year-end WTA Championships. She's notched wins over Dominika Cibulkova, Julia Goerges and frequent doubles partner Roberta Vinci and, other than a slight hiccup in her second round in Budapest, she's lost fewer than ten games in her other three matches, wholly dominating rising star Anna Tatishvili in her semifinal today. She's never played Vesnina, so there's no precedent for the final. But if the feisty Italian holds her ground, she might just add another trophy to her case.

Over in Portugal, Carla Suarez Navarro finally looks like she's back on the track that brought her a win over Venus Williams and helped her to the final in Marbella two years straight. She hasn't been much of a presence on Tour the last few years, with injuries cutting her seasons short, but she proved she's still comfortable on clay with a run to the final four in Barcelona. She was handed a little bit of luck in Estoril, with Polona Hercog retiring from their second round and opponents taking care of two other seeds in her half of the draw. But a solid win over Karin Knapp in Friday's semi, where she broke the Italian five times, proved she might be up for the next challenge.

It could be a good one against Kaia Kanepi in Saturday's final. The Estonian has had her ups and downs, making the quarters at Roland Garros in 2008 and at Wimbledon two years later, but a series of injuries pushed her ranking down every time she built it up. She was on the way to great things, claiming the title in Brisbane this past January, but shoulder problems stalled her momentum almost immediately, and she'd only won three matches since. She struggled slightly against Petra Cetkovska in her quarterfinal, but followed up with a straight-set win over top Estoril seed Roberta Vinci today. She split her previous two meetings with CSN, with each winning when she was at the top of her game, but neither confrontation was on clay. It would be easy to give Kanepi the edge, but this could be a bigger fight than anyone expects.

With this week's finalists looking to keep, recapture, or spark a streak of momentum, there's a lot on the line in the ladies' title matches. If those looking for first-time wins are able to pull off the upsets, it could give them some much-needed momentum, but if the favorites succeed as planned, who knows what other wins they could pull off down the road. Whatever it takes to get them there, though, you can be sure they'll put up a fight. And the resulting performances should be well worth it.

Where No One Is Safe

There's been something strange going on in the women's game this year -- for the first time in what seems like forever, we're seeing some consistency on court. Victoria Azarenka may no longer be undefeated for the year, but her only loss came at the hands of Marion Bartoli, herself a powerful player. Aggie Radwanska's two titles come in addition to three quarterfinal and two semi runs. Maria Sharapova has made three finals this year, two in a row in Indian Wells and Miami. And even the lesser-known names -- Angelique Kerber, Mona Barthel, Sara Errani -- are lasting more than a few rounds at a time.

So it's a little strange that this week we're seeing one seed after another fall by the wayside.

The bloodshed started early in Barcelona. Top-seeded Francesca Schiavone lost in straight sets to world #83 Olga Govortsova. Defending champion Roberta Vinci came back from a set down to win her opener, but fell a day later to Simona Halep. And earlier today Flavia Pennetta, who'd made finals in Auckland and Acapulco already this year, dropped her second round to qualifier Yuliya Beygelzimer.

A couple seeds have survived, of course -- at least so far -- but they might still be in danger. Dominika Cibulkova was just able to force a third set against Klara Zakopalova. The Slovak won the pair's only meeting last year, on her way to the title in Moscow, but after a heart-breaking loss to Victoria Azarenka in Miami, she might be fighting more demons than her opponent. And second seeded Julia Goerges may have to keep an eye on her next opponent -- eighteen-year-old Garbiñe Muguruza Blanco beat both Pennetta and Vera Zvonareva at the Sony Ericsson Open. She hasn't yet cracked the top one-hundred, but if she keeps it up, she might be on the way there soon. And Carla Suarez Navarro, still on the mend from an injury that halted her 2010 season, might be able to regain her form and take advantage of others' losses -- already having ousted Petra Cetkovska, she could keep up her momentum a few more rounds.

The results in Copenhagen haven't been quite so dire for the favorites -- Angelique Kerber survived a scare earlier today and two-time champion Caroline Wozniacki, fresh off arguably her biggest career win in Miami, is currently up a set against Pauline Parmentier. But the retirement of Ksenia Pervak in the first round and losses by Sofia Arvidsson and Monica Niculescu have nevertheless opened the door some.

Alize Cornet, once so close to breaking into the top ten, is now just knocking on the door of double digits. She delivered a double bagel against wildcard Malou Ejdesgaard in her opener, though, and survived a two-plus hour contest against Patricia Mayr-Achleitner on Wednesday. She'll have to raise her game farther in the next round, where she'll likely meet Wozniacki, but it's still nice to see her winning again. And Bojana Jovanovski, who has yet to follow up on her success from early last year, may have a bit of a reprieve against her next opponent -- she beat Petra Martic at a Challenger event two years ago. She'll still be the underdog, ranked nearly fifty spots below the Croat, but if she can find her game, she could present a challenge to even more seeds.

It'll be a tough task for some of these players to continue their runs, but it might be a tougher task for the favorites to hold on to their edge. And whomever is able to take advantage of the holes in the draws could reap more than a few benefits.

And this week might just be the time to do it.

Time Warp

I've never understood the rationale, these few weeks after the end of Wimbledon, of taking players directly from the super-short grass court season, just weeks away from the hard court U.S. Open, and sticking them back on the red clay, a surface on which they won't be chasing any big titles again for another eight months.

It's a jarring shift for the athletes, I'd wager, but one which suits some significantly more than others -- and it's not necessarily the ones who'd been favored to win.

There were very few surprises in Palermo, Italy, where a struggling Flavia Pennetta took the top seed here. She'd only won a handful of matches since Dubai and fell in four straight openers during the spring. But she seems to have regained her footing in her hometown, reaching the quarters along with six other seeds. She'll next face Tsvetana Pironkova, another semi-elite player trying to rebuild her year -- and though the Bulgarian has more recent success, I feel Pennetta's prowess on the surface should help her through.

The only big surprise of the tournament so far has been the loss of red-hot (okay, maybe just pink-hot) Roberta Vinci. A three-time titleist already this year, the twenty-eight year old was sitting on a career-best ranking of #23 in the world. But in a rematch of last Sunday's final in Budapest -- which she won -- Vinci didn't have many answers to rising star Irina-Camelia Begu this time, getting less than half her first serves in and only making a slight dent in her return games. Begu's recently beaten her next opponent, too, but Anabel Medina Garrigues could easily avenge that loss and further make the case for the veterans in Italy.

The seeds have had similar luck in Sweden where two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling looks to reverse some of his recent luck. After kicking off the year winning three trophies in four tournaments, he lost in the quarters at Roland Garros and was summarily upset in the third round of Wimbledon. He only lost one game in his opener in Bastad, and didn't allow Potito Starace a break chance in the quarters. From here it'll be difficult for someone else to wrest the crown in his homeland from the world #5.

But that's not to say it can't be done. David Ferrer is coming off a solid Davis Cup showing last week, and had one of his best clay court seasons this year. And Nicolas Almagro, a winner of three titles on dirt himself in 2011, should have a fairly easy road until at least the semis. And with so much talent left in the field, we should see at the very least some high-quality matches the next few days.

Things have been a little more surprising elsewhere this week. In Bad Gastein only one seed made it out of the first round -- defending champion Julia Goerges and top-thirty player Jarmila Gajdosova, among others all lost their openers, leaving world #61 Ksenia Pervak as the on-paper favorite. The twenty-year-old has won a couple ITF titles and has wins over Goerges and Andrea Petkovic already this year. But though her future road is less bumpy thanks to her colleagues' losses, some with more experience may win out in the end.

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez has been climbing her way back from injury after a stellar start to 2010. Last year's champion in Rome, MJM hasn't won more than two matches at one event all year, but as a former top-twenty player, she's probably the most accomplished of the field. And Carla Suarez Navarro, who lost most of last season with an ankle injury, has been marking time this year at ITF events. She still hasn't won a Tour title, but with wins over Svetlana Kuznetsova and Venus Williams on her record, she certainly has the ability to make her mark.

It was just as hard a road for the favorites in Stuttgart. Mikhail Youzhny and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez both won their first round matches, but that was as far as either made it. In their place qualifier Federico Del Bonis and wildcard Cedrik-Marcel Stebe have emerged as the big spoilers. But here, again, it might be the journeymen who are standing at the end of the day.

Juan Carlos Ferrero, making his umpteenth career comeback, took out Youzhny on Thursday and has fought back from breaks down against Marcel Granollers to get the win in his quarterfinal. And twenty-nine year old Lukasz Kubot, who caused upsets this year at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, seems to be putting out his best career performances these days. With a battle against Santiago Giraldo for a spot in the semis, he has a more-than-likely shot at getting the win.

The return to clay has proven something of a comfort for these players as they get back to their winning ways. Hopefully it won't be too tough a transition when they begin their U.S. Open prep in earnest, but with the wins they've accumulated, they should at least bring the confidence they need when they come back to the present.