The King Is Dethroned

It's the end of an era at the French Open.

Much as many thought/feared, Rafael Nadal's record thirty-nine match win streak at Roland Garros came to an end at the hands of Novak Djokovic today, with his quest for a historic tenth title in Paris stopping in the quarterfinals.

It was just Nadal's second loss at the French -- since he first hit these red clay courts in 2005, he's racked up a more-than-intimidating 70-1 record, falling only in 2009 to then-unknown Robin Soderling.

Wednesday's defeat may not have been quite as shocking -- the Swede was ranked just #25 in the world at the time, a far cry from Nole's top spot. And Djokovic did win the pair's last meeting in Monte Carlo last April, as a famously struggling Rafa, with just one tiny trophy this year, put together one of his least prolific seasons to date.

But that doesn't make the Spaniard's exit any less significant.

Nadal had won more matches at this tournament than any other man in history and, winning better than ninety-seven percent of his matches here, outstripped all players at any Major. His nine titles are more than anyone -- including legends like Pete Sampras, Ivan Lendl or Bjorn Borg -- had ever claimed at a single event. Even when he wasn't a favorite, he somehow managed to pull through. And this year, as the sixth seed -- easily his lowest position since he first took the trophy a decade ago -- many still expected he'd come away with a championship.

But even more important might be what Rafa's departure means for the rest of the field. His loss six years ago paved the way for Roger Federer to complete the career Grand Slam -- and this year might very well be Novak Djokovic's turn. The top-ranked Serb has lost on these courts three years in a row to the King of Clay, and after finally turning the tables on him there seems to be no stopping him.

As for everybody else -- they've certainly been served notice that there's a new man to beat at Roland Garros. And when Nadal comes back next year, you can be sure he'll be hungrier than ever to reclaim the crown.

...And a Happy New Year!

Tomorrow, it will be 2012, and I'm feeling existential. It's a new year, a new beginning, a new opportunity for anything to happen, so they say. And while the top players in tennis hope to continue their domination of the sport, plenty of others will have a whole new chance to add their names to the ranks of the elite.

So in the spirit of the new, I've decided to play a little game -- I'll make my predictions for the players I think could win each of the Grand Slams, just like I did last year, with on catch: each pick will be a first-time Major winner.

With a few hours still left before finalizing their New Year's resolutions, this might give them the extra push they need to really focus on the goal.

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Australian Open

Women
I've said this before, but this year I'm even more confident in my choice.

Victoria Azarenka has always had come out of the gate swinging, winning her first Tour title in Brisbane back in 2009. But she's never started a year with as much momentum as she has right now -- she capped of this past season with a title in Luxembourg and a run to the final in Istanbul. Now at a career-high #3 in the world, she could set the stage for a further rise quickly in 2012.

Australia has been the site of some of Vika's best Slam performances too -- she lost three years in a row to Serena Williams, taking a set from her twice, and last year fell to eventual finalist Na Li. But since her foils won't be eligible for the crown in my little game, Azarenka will logistically have the road cleared for her. And, of the top players in the game who've never brought home the big trophy, she seems most ready to make an impact early in the year.

Men
Of course, Andy Murray is by now a real contender at any of the Slams, but the two-time finalist in Melbourne ended 2011 with three straight titles, and though he withdrew from London, he's had a little extra time to rest up. Like Vika, if he's able to re-harnass the momentum that gripped his game since the U.S. Open, then he could start 2012 off on the right foot.

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French Open

Women
Oh, how to pick a winner at a tournament which has had five different champions in as many years? Then again, we know anything can happen on the red clay of Paris, and with three of those victors claiming their first -- and, incidentally, so far only -- Major at Roland Garros, this might be the most-realistic setting in which to play my game.

There are a couple contenders for this title -- Flavia Pennetta, who had a nice comeback run at the end of '11 with wins over Maria Sharapova at the U.S. Open and Caroline Wozniacki in Beijing and has won seven of her nine titles on the surface, Julia Goerges, who put up some of her best numbers on clay last year, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who should have her confidence raised, now that fellow youngster Petra Kvitova re-made the case for non-veteran talent last year.

But I'm going with another choice -- one even more under the radar. Dominika Cibulkova always seems most comfortable on the dirt, and after her breakthrough title in Moscow last October, she should be able to improve her ranking in the months leading up to the year's second Slam. She was a semifinalist here in 2009, pummeling Sharapova along the way, but was not healthy enough to compete well last year. Look for her to turn that around, and maybe do something really big.

Men
It's kind of funny -- there really are a ton of great clay-court specialists on the men's Tour, but the ones playing at their prime during the last decade have been somewhat unfairly, but quite dominantly, overshadowed by Rafael Nadal since 2005. David Ferrer, currently #5 in the world, made three clay-court finals last year, including a Masters event in Monte Carlo. Nicolas Almagro has won all ten of his titles on the surface. And a slew of lower ranked players patiently mark their time at lower-tier dirt events, racking up points and honing their game.

But if anyone deserves to take home their first Major in Paris this year, it's probably Sweden's Robin Soderling. The twenty-seven year old shocked the world nearly three years ago when he handed Rafa his only loss ever at Roland Garros and made the finals in that and the next year, when he ended the great Slam semifinal streak of Roger Federer. He's dropped a few ranking points the last few months, missing some of the season with a wrist injury and some because of mono. If he's back in form by the spring and gets in a couple matches of practice before the French, he might be the non-Rafa, non-Roger favorite this year.

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Wimbledon

Women
Over the last few years, a couple players have been able to break the all-Williams stranglehold at the All England Club -- Marion Bartoli made the finals in 2007, Vera Zvonareva had the same run in '10, and Petra Kvitova finally broke the spell entirely last July. But by the same time this year it might be somebody else's turn.

Sabine Lisicki made the semis in 2011 as a wildcard, on the back of a title in Birmingham and a previous-best quarterfinal run. Now healthy again and sure to move a few spots higher up the rankings by the time she travels to London, she has a legitimate shot even if my first-time winner stipulation doesn't apply.

Men
Wimbledon has long been a place where certain names dominate -- Bjorn Borg in the 1970s, Pete Sampras in the nineties, Roger Federer for most of this decade -- so it'll be hard for anyone inexperienced in the big leagues to crack through. Tomas Berdych, in fact, is the only non-Slam winner to make the final since 2003.

Among the top tier of players, Andy Murray would certainly be the one the hometown crowds would want to take the title, but having won my hypothetical Australian Open crown, he's no longer eligible for this one. I would love to see Mardy Fish, who made a career-best quarterfinal run here last year, walk away with it, but I'm not sure he's quite ready yet. And the handful of guys who make surprise runs -- Bernard Tomic last year, Yen-Hsun Lu the year before -- fall a little short of what it takes to go all the way.

The one guy who's been somewhat consistent at the All England Club recently has been Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. After suffering some drawn out matches in 2010 to make the quarters, he went one better last year, beating David Ferrer in the fourth round and then coming back from two sets down to Federer to make the semis. He went 10-13 against top ten players this year, and went on a roll to make the final in London. If he keeps up his game, he might finally make the Big breakthrough we've been waiting for.

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U.S. Open

Women
The New York crowds sure do love a show, and over the past couple years we might have gotten the best ones -- at least the best non-tennis ones -- from Andrea Petkovic.

But besides being a great entertainer, the spunky German has tons of fight. Injured for most of the last quarter, she still battled to the quarters at the U.S. Open and barely gave an inch in the Beijing finals. Petko's only titles have come on clay, but she's made nice runs in New York the last two years and she'll only get better from here. With six wins over top ten players in 2011, we know she has the talent to pull off the required wins, and there doesn't seem to be a better place for the fans to get behind her.

Men
It gets tough for the men in New York -- after Federer's domination of the U.S. Open in the mid-2000s, this trophy has traded hands quite a bit the last few years. And with eight months of play to go before the last Grand Slam of the year is played, the door can open for any number of guys. In that vein, let's go with a real underdog for this trophy.

John Isner was way under the radar in 2010, thanks to a lack of any real record-setting matches. But he did add to his trophy case twice, in Winston-Salem and Newport, and grabbed a runner's-up award in Atlanta. He followed up a red-hot summer with a trip to the quarters in New York, his best ever showing at any Major. Clearly the U.S. crowds are good for him, and with a game that now is more refined than being just a serve show, he might just be able to make his way through the super-elite and bring a Slam back to the American men.

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Sure, there's a lot of stuff that has to go their way for any of this guys and gals to walk away with that maiden Major in 2012 -- and since, even in my hypothetical game, they'll still potentially have to compete against the Rogers and Serenas of the world, nothing can be taken for granted. You'll notice, of course, some obvious omissions from my picks, but that doesn't mean there isn't room for some surprises.

And with a little training -- and a bit of luck -- we could be in for quite a few.

An End to the Dry Spell

We're just about ready to make the full shift to the summer hardcourt season, and as the dust from the soon-to-be abandoned clay settles, a couple players brushed the cobwebs off themselves as they made the return to the winner's circle this weekend.

Two-time French Open finalist Robin Soderling has been a little quiet on Tour since the early part of the year, when he captured three titles in four events. And though he was the top seed in Bastad, he had a tough road with players like Potito Starace and Tomas Berdych in his path. Still he was able to advance to the final without dropping a set and made surprisingly quick work of David Ferrer in Sunday's championship. Only dropping three points on his first serve and limiting his opponent to less than thirty percent on the return, he was able to lift the trophy in his homeland for the second time and claim his first title since February -- not exactly a drought, but a bit of a relief given how absent he was from the winner's podium during his best part of the year.

Anabel Medina Garrigues had been mired in a slightly longer dry spell, losing a slew of first round matches over the last eighteen months, but she finally won her first title in almost two years this past April in Estoril. She's climbed her way back into the top forty since then and earned the fifth seed in Palermo, where she avenged a semifinal loss to Irina-Camelia Begu in the third round. With many of the higher-ranked players eliminated for her, she marched to the final without much drama and summarily ended Bastad champion Polona Hercog's nine-match win streak in about eighty minutes. The victory -- her fifth in Palermo -- made Anabel the winning-est clay court player still active on Tour, surpassing Venus Williams with her tenth title on the dirt. Not a bad way to remind us all she's still a force to be reckoned with.

The same can be said for the action in Stuttgart last week, where uber-veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero was trying to make his latest career comeback. Since knee and wrist surgery late last year, he's only played a handful of matches in 2011, making a nice run in Barcelona, but skipping the Majors, and has seen his ranking fall back out of the top eighty. JCF is not a man to be ignored, however, and though he was unseeded in Germany, he handled his biggest challenge in world #17 Mikhail Youzhny and never looked back. Against quickly rising Pablo Andujar in the final, Ferrero took advantage of weak serving and seven double faults, blanking his countryman in the second set. It was his first crown since last July and, at thirty-one years of age, the latest announcement that the Spaniard is still relevant.

A little further east in Bad Gastein, the draw had been opened early, but it was really some seasoned talent that made its way through the week. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, who reached a career high rank of #19 in the world after a title in Rome last year, had struggled to rebound from a knee injury and didn't progress past a second round this year until Wimbledon. In Austria she battled through a close first round against qualifier Paula Ormaechea, but saw largely smooth sailing after that. In Sunday's final against Patricia Mayr-Achleitner, she fired off nine aces and, though she missed a bunch of first serves herself, she broke her opponent six times in nine return games, securing her first championship in over a year.

As these ladies and gentlemen next move to U.S. Open prep, it's encouraging to see them each show they can still make an impact. Whether that translates into more titles this year is yet to be seen. But a return to the spotlight for each at least ensures that no one will take them lightly.

Time Warp

I've never understood the rationale, these few weeks after the end of Wimbledon, of taking players directly from the super-short grass court season, just weeks away from the hard court U.S. Open, and sticking them back on the red clay, a surface on which they won't be chasing any big titles again for another eight months.

It's a jarring shift for the athletes, I'd wager, but one which suits some significantly more than others -- and it's not necessarily the ones who'd been favored to win.

There were very few surprises in Palermo, Italy, where a struggling Flavia Pennetta took the top seed here. She'd only won a handful of matches since Dubai and fell in four straight openers during the spring. But she seems to have regained her footing in her hometown, reaching the quarters along with six other seeds. She'll next face Tsvetana Pironkova, another semi-elite player trying to rebuild her year -- and though the Bulgarian has more recent success, I feel Pennetta's prowess on the surface should help her through.

The only big surprise of the tournament so far has been the loss of red-hot (okay, maybe just pink-hot) Roberta Vinci. A three-time titleist already this year, the twenty-eight year old was sitting on a career-best ranking of #23 in the world. But in a rematch of last Sunday's final in Budapest -- which she won -- Vinci didn't have many answers to rising star Irina-Camelia Begu this time, getting less than half her first serves in and only making a slight dent in her return games. Begu's recently beaten her next opponent, too, but Anabel Medina Garrigues could easily avenge that loss and further make the case for the veterans in Italy.

The seeds have had similar luck in Sweden where two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling looks to reverse some of his recent luck. After kicking off the year winning three trophies in four tournaments, he lost in the quarters at Roland Garros and was summarily upset in the third round of Wimbledon. He only lost one game in his opener in Bastad, and didn't allow Potito Starace a break chance in the quarters. From here it'll be difficult for someone else to wrest the crown in his homeland from the world #5.

But that's not to say it can't be done. David Ferrer is coming off a solid Davis Cup showing last week, and had one of his best clay court seasons this year. And Nicolas Almagro, a winner of three titles on dirt himself in 2011, should have a fairly easy road until at least the semis. And with so much talent left in the field, we should see at the very least some high-quality matches the next few days.

Things have been a little more surprising elsewhere this week. In Bad Gastein only one seed made it out of the first round -- defending champion Julia Goerges and top-thirty player Jarmila Gajdosova, among others all lost their openers, leaving world #61 Ksenia Pervak as the on-paper favorite. The twenty-year-old has won a couple ITF titles and has wins over Goerges and Andrea Petkovic already this year. But though her future road is less bumpy thanks to her colleagues' losses, some with more experience may win out in the end.

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez has been climbing her way back from injury after a stellar start to 2010. Last year's champion in Rome, MJM hasn't won more than two matches at one event all year, but as a former top-twenty player, she's probably the most accomplished of the field. And Carla Suarez Navarro, who lost most of last season with an ankle injury, has been marking time this year at ITF events. She still hasn't won a Tour title, but with wins over Svetlana Kuznetsova and Venus Williams on her record, she certainly has the ability to make her mark.

It was just as hard a road for the favorites in Stuttgart. Mikhail Youzhny and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez both won their first round matches, but that was as far as either made it. In their place qualifier Federico Del Bonis and wildcard Cedrik-Marcel Stebe have emerged as the big spoilers. But here, again, it might be the journeymen who are standing at the end of the day.

Juan Carlos Ferrero, making his umpteenth career comeback, took out Youzhny on Thursday and has fought back from breaks down against Marcel Granollers to get the win in his quarterfinal. And twenty-nine year old Lukasz Kubot, who caused upsets this year at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, seems to be putting out his best career performances these days. With a battle against Santiago Giraldo for a spot in the semis, he has a more-than-likely shot at getting the win.

The return to clay has proven something of a comfort for these players as they get back to their winning ways. Hopefully it won't be too tough a transition when they begin their U.S. Open prep in earnest, but with the wins they've accumulated, they should at least bring the confidence they need when they come back to the present.

Blogcast: 2011 French Open Preview

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And check out my early predictions for the man and woman I picked at the start of the year to bring home the trophies in Paris to see just how far we've come.

Last -Minute Cramming

Remember when you were in college and, despite all your good intentions, you would somehow find yourself pulling an all-nighter to finish up a paper or reading up on all the assignments you ignored before a final? Heck, a decade removed from that reality, I still have nightmares of being unprepared for the big day.

Maybe it's a similar lack of preparation that's prompted so many of the tennis elite to spend the last week before the French Open, not resting up after the recent flight of Premier and Masters events, but hitting the ground hard for even more match play.

The field in Brussels is surprisingly loaded, with four top-ten ladies in attendance. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki leads the pack, fresh off a semifinal finish in Rome. She hasn't won a ton of titles this clay court season, but she has hung around the draws a while, only losing in a third round once. And frankly that makes me a little worried for her this week. Set to go up against some top talent in Belgium, she will by no means have an easy ride to the title. She already survived a tough opener against Varvara Lepchenko, and with Yanina Wickmayer in the next round, things are just getting harder.

Leading the other half of the draw is Vera Zvonareva, who'll be seeded third in Paris now that Kim Clijsters has confirmed. Her presence in Brussels makes a little more sense to me, since unlike workhorse Caroline, the Russian hasn't gotten in a many successful workouts on the clay. She was pushed to three sets in four consecutive matches, and the only straight-setter was a loss to Petra Kvitova in the Madrid third round. Not exactly the kind of record she would have wanted going into her least successful Slam. Vera faces a strangely more accomplished Alexandra Dulgheru on Thursday, and if she can get in a few more wins after that, her chances next week might certainly get better.

Reigning French Open champ Francesca Schiavone will have a ton of points coming off her ranking in a few weeks, and she's doing what she can to rack up a bit of padding before that happens. She's only won a handful of matches this season and didn't try to defend her title in Barcelona, so there's a lot of ground to make up. But two wins to her name in Brussels is a good start, and if last year is any indication, it might be all she needs to go for the gold at Roland Garros.

Over in Dusseldorf, where individual performances are less important than team scores, Robin Soderling heads up the otherwise sparse Swedish team. Still, as he tries to go one better than his previous showings in Paris, it's probably a good choice. So far, he's won both his matches against Sam Querrey and Maximo Gonzalez, and though his county may not be able to advance out of the round robins, this Robin may have gotten his confidence back up after quarterfinal exits in Madrid and Rome.

A little closer to the action in Paris, David Ferrer is hoping to make up for missing last week's event in Italy -- where he had finished runner-up last year -- due to fever. He should be confident enough, having won a title in Acapulco and reaching two clay court finals already this year. But a trophy in Nice this week could bode well for his French Open chances -- after all, he took the crown in Auckland last January just before making his best-ever run in Melbourne.

Whether these guys have been procrastinating in notching their clay court wins, or are diligent students over-prepping for a Major test isn't entirely clear, but I have my suspicions. Hopefully they won't wear themselves out this week -- the challenges ahead only get tougher.

The Haves and the Have-Nots

This past week of tennis seems to highlight two things: players on a roll and players trying to get back on one.

At the Copa Claro in Buenos Aires, the field was fraught with local stars and past champions with Nicolas Almagro leading the pack, fresh off a title in Costa do Sauipe. The Spaniard is probably one of the most under-rated guys in the game, outshone by compatriots Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco. Still he's been in and around the top thirty for almost four years and has racked up at least one title a year for the past six -- incidentally, all on clay. On the way to the quarters in Argentina, he's put together a solid 11-2 record on the year, and if he continues to play like he has, I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve it even further.

The 2009 champ here, Tommy Robredo is also trying to keep his momentum going. After a disappointing season last year, he finally seems to be turning things around. He defeated Mardy Fish in Melbourne and took a set from Roger Federer in the fourth round before winning the championship in Santiago. Back in seeding territory for the Majors, he hasn't lost a set yet in Buenos Aires. But with a third round date with David Nalbandian, things are only getting harder from here.

Less successful in recent months has been Albert Montanes. After scoring wins over Juan Carlos Ferrero, Nikolay Davydenko and Roger Federer last year, he'd gone just 1-3 before the Copa. He struggled through his second round versus a tough Fabio Fognini, but if he keeps his cool against Juan Ignacio Chela today, he could recapture his momentum.

The Marseille draw is headlined by Robin Soderling, ranked at a career high #4 in the world and having just successfully defended his title in Rotterdam. Though he was forced into two tiebreaks against marathon-man Nicolas Mahut in his opener, he's been flawless since and earlier today dismissed Dmitry Tursunov, himself a stunning comeback story, 6-1 in the second set, to make his second final in a row.

There he'll face one-time top-ten player Marin Cilic, once my favorite to take this sport by storm. After failing to three-peat titles in Chennai and Zagreb earlier this year, he dropped precipitously in the rankings and lost the seeding in France. But with wins over #7 Tomas Berdych in the quarters and third-seed Mikhail Youzhny in the semis, the Croat has reached his first final in almost a year. He's lost his only previous meeting with Soderling at last year's French Open, but he sure looks like he's playing back at the top of his game.

Things are a little backwards in Memphis, where the hot player is not the top seed, but the wildcard. Milos Raonic began the year ranked #250, but a fourth round run in Melbourne and his first career title in San Jose have vaulted him to #59. The twenty-year-old backed up his win over Fernando Verdasco in the SAP finals with a three-set victory in the first round this week and somewhat easily clawed his way to the semis where today he faces fourth seed Mardy Fish.

In the other Memphis semi it's a former Major champion trying to come back. Juan Martin Del Potro missed most of 2010 recovering from wrist surgery and failed to make a dent in any tournament when he returned last September. Now ranked back in the top three hundred -- his semifinal showing in San Jose boosted him 186 spots -- he's starting to show his stuff again. He's not quite the big server he was in the past, firing off just seven aces in his quarter against Michael Russell, but he is winning again, and if he can get past Andy Roddick today, it could make for a very interesting final.

Of course it's still early in the year, and we certainly don't know yet whether any of these guys will be able to continue their performances thus far in 2011. But things so far are looking promising for both the consistent players and the comebacks. And if they keep it up, those at the very top of the sport might have something to look out for.

Blogcast: 2011 Australian Open Preview

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And check out my related content, including my New Year's predictions for the man and woman I picked to win the Open, and the first round matches I'll be watching particularly closely.

The Princes & The Cinderellas

The first week of tournament play of the new year has certainly yielded some interesting results -- while so many of the top women in the sport fell early in their events making way for a couple fairy tale runs, the men brought their game all week and several of the sport's best advanced all the way to the championship rounds.

The first men's trophy of 2011 went, not surprisingly, to Roger Federer who ousted a resurgent Nikolay Davydenko in Doha. It was the world #2's third title in the desert after a five-year drought but, more importantly, it was his fourth title in his last five tournaments -- his fifth since Wimbledon. If the rest of the field didn't already have reason to fear Fed in Melbourne, they certainly do now.

But some no-less-important statements were made a little further east.

Over in Chennai, India, two-time defending champ Marin Cilic was dismissed early, but most of the other seeds advanced without too much drama. Sixth-ranked Tomas Berdych, who hadn't played very well to end the year, finally put together back-to-back wins again to reach the semifinals where he was eventually dismissed by Stanislas Wawrinka in straight sets. In the other half of the draw, a tough Xavier Malisse, who's been climbing his way back after a wrist injury that largely kept him out of contention for the last three years, advanced easily, only dropping one set in the semis to Janko Tipsarevic before making his first final since 2007.

Third-seeded Wawrinka found himself in a deficit early on Sunday, though, down 2-4 in the first set before knocking of wins in five of the next six games to capture the lead. But the Belgian raised his level in the second, winning every one of his first serve points, and only dropping two of his second attempts. He made good on his only break opportunity and was able to force the match into a decider.

But the third was all about the Swiss -- this time it was Wawrinka who displayed the superior serves, ceding only one receiving point to Malisse, and breaking his opponent twice to run off with the championship after more than two hours of play. It was Stan's third career title, and his first on a hardcourt -- certainly a good result as the world #21 tries to make a big mark at the Majors.

A little closer to Melbourne it was the very top seeds that made it to the finals at the Brisbane International. Defending champ Andy Roddick looked to be playing near his prime, surviving tough opponents in fifth seeded Marcos Baghdatis and big-serving Kevin Anderson to make the title match again. Meanwhile Robin Soderling, who'd only dropped serve once in his first four matches made good on his top billing and advanced to his seventeenth career final.

The Swede got off to a good start, breaking Andy early and winning the first set in just over half an hour. Things were tighter in the second, as the American saved a handful of break points early and kept his cool after a scuffle with officials over the rain. Eventually though, serving his sixteenth ace of the match, it was the tournament favorite -- now ranked fourth in the world -- who captured the crown. He won an amazing ninety percent of his first serves during the match and never faced a break point, securing his best-ever seeding at a Grand Slam.

But while the higher seeds lived up to expectations on the men's side, it was anything but for the ladies. In Brisbane none of the top three seeds made it out of the second round and the two eventual finalists took care of numbers four and five in the semis. Unseeded Andrea Petkovic made it through the top half of the draw without losing a set while Petra Kvitova, ranked just two spots below the German, took out big threats including Nadia Petrova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Dominika Cibulkova on the way to her third career final.

The two unlikely opponents had faced each other four times before, splitting their meetings, with Petkovic winning the last two. But Kvitova, a surprise semifinalist at Wimbledon last year, came out firing and broke Andrea in the first game of the match. She took advantage of weak serving from Petkovic -- both actually won more returning points than service points in the first set -- and took the opener in just over half an hour. Petko climbed out of an early hole in the second set, but the twenty-year-old Czech came back roaring and broke right back to close out her title.

And while it was a story of youth in Australia, it was a thirty-one year old veteran who triumphed down in New Zealand. Greta Arn took out three seeds in a row, including 2008 Australian Open champ Maria Sharapova, to make her first final since 2007. She earned the right to meet defending champion Yanina Wickmayer for the title, the only seeded woman to make a final this weekend.

But here again, the results were not to be expected. Arn who wasn't supposed to play in Auckland at all -- she only made it in the main draw after a couple higher-ranked players withdrew and saved five match points against Sophie Arvidsson in the second round -- was the better server all match, winning a much higher percent of her first serves and saving both break points she faced. Wickmayer, who struggled in Tour play at the end of last year, was out-maneuvered by the more experienced Hungarian and failed to defend her title after less than ninety minutes of play.

They were obviously solid wins for all players involved -- the top men re-established themselves as ones to watch Down Under, while some new faces emerged on the women's side as potential spoilers. Of course it's too early to tell how long these Cinderella runs and princely reigns will last, but if the action this week is any indication, we're in for a year of some great and exciting tennis.

Off and Running

With two days of play in the books, everyone's had a chance to get their feet wet in London, and while we haven't had any major surprises yet, there sure has been some excitement.

Andy Murray was the first out the gate for Group B and, looking dapper in argyle, he downed higher-seeded Robin Soderling in straight sets. Admittedly, I'd expected a bigger fight from the recent Masters winner, but the Brit was quick to show he would not be easily pushed aside. A semifinalist at the World Tour Championships in 2008, he's looking to do even better this year, and if his fairly one-sided, hour-long win is any indication, his chances are good.

Of course, he's in the same group as four-time winner Roger Federer, who was equally impressive in his opening round robin -- he only dropped five games against David Ferrer to extend his record against the Spaniard to 11-0. And though Fed is probably the favorite to win the whole thing, when he meets Murray on Tuesday, you know there will be sparks flying.

In the other half of the draw, Novak Djokovic kicked of Group A action by displaying some of the magic that got him to the finals of this year's U.S. Open. He withstood seven aces from first-time finalist Tomas Berdych and didn't allow a single break opportunity in their ninety minutes of play. He capitalized on weak second serving and pushed the Wimbledon finalist to 3-10 since New York. Djokovic is clearly taking advantage of his comfort on the hardcourts of London.

The only man -- well, the only favorite -- who's had any trouble in his opener was top seeded Rafael Nadal. After losing all three of his round robins last year in London, he was certainly out for revenge this year. Against Andy Roddick, a man who has a decent record against the world #1 on the surface, he found himself down a set early before evening the score with a second set breaker. He spent more than two and a half hours on the court before getting the win, and though he's not technically in a hole yet, he might have a tougher time than we originally anticipated.

Sure, we've only really just begun to see these men fight for the championship, so anything still can happen. But if these early matches have shown us anything, it's that the favorites are out and fighting, and that maybe a couple underdogs might be able to squeak through.

Eight Men Standing

At this point in time, there are eight men still in contention for the year-end championship. Most have been here before, some are making a return, and one is stepping into unchartered territory.

But in just over a week there will be only one left holding the trophy, and he'll have fought through a barrage of power in order to claim it. Only two of the men in London have won the title before, and last year's champion, Nikolay Davydenko, won't be back to defend, so things really could get interesting. Of course there are clear favorites, but if we've learned anything this year, it's that no one is safe.

So let's see how it may all shake out.

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Andy Roddick
2010 titles: 2
Championships played: 5
Championships record: 8-8
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 60.9%

Roddick has qualified for the year-end tournament for the eighth straight year and has made the semis here three times. But as the last man to book his ticket to London, the lone American in the field may have a stuggle ahead of him. The most successful part of his year came in the winter when he won two titles and made another two finals, but he's only made a handful of semis since then.

But all is not lost -- grouped with world #1 Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych for the round robins, he stands a solid chance in the early rounds. Roddick has a combined 14-9 history against those opponents -- one of the best percentages among the eight -- and a winning record against all but Nadal. Still, early losses in this year's Majors and a couple of nagging injuries keep the question marks beside his name. At this point, I'm just hoping for a solid showing -- that he holds down the fort until the next generation of U.S. athletes is ready to make their mark.

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David Ferrer
2010 titles: 2
Championships played: 1
Championships record: 4-1
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 26.9%

Ferrer is making a return to the championships, qualifying for the first time since making the title match in 2007, and he really put in quite a valiant effort this year. Trophies in Acapulco and Valencia coupled with three more second place finishes helped him chop his ranking to #7, his best in over two years. He's also notched wins over players like Fernando Verdasco, Andy Murray and Robin Soderling along the way.

Of course his best surface continues to be the clay and he might have a tougher time on London's hardcourts. He'll be pitted against Murray, Soderling and Roger Federer in his early rounds and, recent wins notwithstanding, he still holds a 7-19 record against them. He's also lost all ten of the matches he's played against Roger -- the only pairing in the field where the challenger has never beaten his rival. Ferrer's record against potential Group A opponents is better -- he's won a respectable 43% of those matches -- but he's going to have to get there first.

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Tomas Berdych
2010 titles: None
Championships played: Zero
Championships record: N/A
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 26.1%

Making his ATP Championships debut, Wimbledon finalist Berdych could very well be overwhelmed by his settings. He's the only competitor who hasn't won a title this year. His 6-17 career mark against his Group-mates is the lowest of the contenders, and his record against the entire field is only slightly better.

The Czech superstar may also be suffering a bit of a hangover after his solid spring. Though he sits at his highest career ranking, he's also been slowing down a bit, winning just a handful of matches in the second half of the year. He's been upset by the likes of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Michael Berrer and world #72 Tobias Kamke, all in early round matches. I'm sure he'll do his best to turn momentum back in his direction, but I fear his virgin experience in London might be just that -- an experience.

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Andy Murray
2010 titles: 2
Championships played: 2
Championships record: 5-2
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 52.4%

This is where we start to get serious. A semifinalist in 2008, Murray is making his third appearance in London and is the hometown favorite. Though he crashed out of the Australian Open final in January, he's won two Masters titles in the last four months, beating Federer for both those crowns.

Murray has a solid record against his round robin group, oddly only having a losing head-to-head against Ferrer -- his three losses, though, all came on clay. And with Robin Soderling, the man who just usurped his #4 ranking, among his early matches, I expect him to display fireworks from the start. Given his more stacked bracket, getting back to the semis will be hard, but it should definitely be exciting.

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Robin Soderling
2010 titles: 2
Championships played: 1
Championships record: 2-2
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 35.5%

The man who just overtook Murray to climb into the top four for the first time in his career has made it to the Tour finals for the second straight year. Soderling began the year with a title in Rotterdam and ended it with his maiden Masters in Paris. He repeated as runner-up at the French Open and racked up five solid wins over top ten players over the year.

Soderling has a decent history against his opponents in London, with overall losing records only against the players ranked higher than him. But, a point in his favor, he defeated both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic en route to the semis here last year, and he's only now playing at the top of his game. Ranked higher than Murray, the Swede is the on-paper favorite to make the final four, an he could really make this group one to watch.

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Novak Djokovic
2010 titles: 2
Championships played: 3
Championships record: 6-5
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 36.4%

U.S. Open runner-up Djokovic won the championships back in 2008, but failed to make it out of the round robins last year. He's looking renewed in 2010, following up his New York run with a title in Beijing and a semi in Basel. Ranked #2 for several weeks during the year, he's a legitimate force at the championships -- after all, he's done it before.

Unfortunately for Nole, he has a pretty dismal record against his early round opponents. Roddick and Rafa have both beaten him twice as often as they've lost and he only leads Berdych 3-1. He's fifty-fifty against the Group B men, but like Ferrer, he'll have a hell of a fight to get there. That said, the Djok-er is playing in top form again, and we've watched him beat all of these guys more than once. Making a statement here would sure get people talking about him come Australia.

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Roger Federer
2010 titles: 4
Championships played: 8
Championships record: 29-7
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 76.3%

Federer is the only other man in the field who has won the year-end championship, and boy has he won it! The four-time titleist has amassed a more-than-intimidating record at this tournament, and has made three runs to the trophy without dropping a match. By far the most experienced champion of this bunch, he's only been stopped in the round robins once in eight appearances.

But Roger arguably is in the tougher Group this year -- Soderling has put up a fight against him more than a few times and Murray even has a winning record against the King. He's also seen defeat at the hand of some new foes in recent months -- Berdych in Miami, Marcos Baghdatis in Indian Wells, Gael Monfils in Paris. Still, three years having passed since his last year-end trophy, he's going to be hungry to reclaim the crown.

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Rafael Nadal
2010 titles: 7
Championships played: 3
Championships record: 4-7
Win % against Round Robin opponents: 68.3%

Of the many titles Rafael Nadal has won, he's never seen the most success at the Tour finals. Having gone 0-3 last year, he hasn't even had a winning record in any of his three appearances. Of course, 2010 has been a breakout year of sorts for him -- he clawed back to the #1 ranking, he reclaimed championships at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, he won the career Grand Slam, all after various injuries caused many to write him off completely. And in the sixteen events he's played this year, he's only failed to make the quarterfinals once.

He has a solid record against his fellow contenders in London, winning more than 69% of his matches against the rest of the field. And that stat comes in a long history against these opponents -- he's played the other seven guys a staggering ninety-five times during his career, second only to Federer, who's been pro three years longer. Of course, Rafa could fall victim to the London hardcourts -- though he's improved his win percentage on the surface this year, all of his losses to his Group-mates have come on the concrete, and only against Berdych is he even on the surface. Now we've learned you can never count out Rafa, but if anyone has a chance against him, this is it.

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Each of these guys have different prospects in London, and different goals -- for some this is one last shot for glory, while for others their careers are really just getting started. Some will undoubtedly be heavy favorites, while others will have to struggle a bit from the start.

But whatever the circumstances, all these guys have certainly earned the right to fight for the trophy this year. And whoever is left standing at the end will clearly deserve his reward.

At a New Level

It's no question that Robin Soderling has climbed his way into the tennis elite over the past eighteen months.

Twice a finalist at the French Open, he's steadily climbed up the rankings and has been firmly entrenched in the top ten all year long. Still, despite the fact that he's proven his ability against the biggest talents in the sport -- he's beaten Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray all this year -- his five titles to date had all been at second-tier tournaments, and he'd failed to reach even the finals of a Masters event.

But this past week in Paris, the twenty-six year old Swede had a breakthrough. As the fourth seed he was certainly one of the favorites, and he had most of his major obstacles eliminated for him -- Michael Llodra took care of Nikolay Davydenko and Novak Djokovic for him while, in the other half of the draw, Gael Monfils did the same to Murray and Federer. But that didn't mean his performance was any less impressive. He hadn't lost a set on the way to the semifinals and rebounded after dropping a tight first set to Llodra on Saturday.

For his part, Monfils put up quite a show himself on the way to the finals. Fresh off a win in Montpellier, the French #2 beat three favored opponents in a row to reach his fourth championship match of the year. But his nearly three hour marathon against Federer on Saturday might have worn him down somewhat -- he lost serve twice in the first set while Soderling won sixty-five percent of the total points. Monfils raised his level a bit in the second, but Robin stayed stronger, ultimately winning in a decisive tiebreak and earning the right to hoist his first ever Masters trophy.



The win couldn't have come at a better time for the newly appointed world #4. With the year-end championships in London getting underway in just a week, Soderling made a solid statement at the last Tour event of the year -- he's clearly capable of winning the big titles and I wouldn't be surprised if a major one came soon. So if the seven men who'll be waiting for him at the O2 Arena -- most of whom have a couple of Masters titles to their own names -- didn't already fear him, they certainly have a reason to now.

Time-Out: U.S. Open Reassessment

So I stink at this game -- really, really stink.

Sure, some of my picks to make the semis are still alive and more than kicking, but a bunch more have already fallen by the wayside -- and some a lot earlier than I would've thought. And, I gotta say, I'm nothing short of shocked that a couple are still standing.

Let's start with the men, who've only just wrapped up their third rounds today. We shouldn't be too surprised that both top-seeded Rafael Nadal and five-time champion Roger Federer have advanced this far, though I am somewhat saddened that my choice for the top quarter, David Nalbandian, succumbed in four sets earlier on Sunday to Fernando Verdasco. That leaves four Spaniards vying for the first semifinal spot, and all have faced challenges before eventually emerging triumphant. At this point, I have to give Rafa the advantage, but it sure would be nice to see him and Verdasco fight it out again.

Roger's still looking stunning in his bid to make up for that devastating loss in the finals last year, but he also seems primed for another quarterfinal rematch with Robin Soderling. Though the #5 seed was nearly eliminated in the first round, he rebounded to take out his next two opponents without dropping a set. And after his amazing win in Paris, he might have a bit more confidence, should the chance to face Fed in a Slam arise again. And while Jurgen Melzer and Albert Montanes might put up their best efforts to stop that eventual clash, I have to believe we're in for the inevitable.

While the top seeds have advanced without much drama, I have to say the run of Novak Djokovic did leave me a little winded. The runner-up here in 2007 faced his biggest challenge against countryman Viktor Troicki in the first round, battling through extreme heat and five sets. But he rolled over Philipp Petzschner in the second and my dear James Blake in the third. He'll next face red-hot Mardy Fish, a man he's beaten in their last four meetings, though I think this time might be different. Fish has gotten through a couple tough matches, and might have what it takes to pull off the upset. If he does, he'll face one of two Frenchman -- Gael Monfils who took out the dude who took out the dude I'd picked for this quarter, or Richard Gasquet, a solid hitter on his own comeback trail. I'm still putting my money on the American, but I might be reducing the size of the wager.

The biggest shock in the men's draw came earlier this evening when Andy Murray, my reluctant favorite for the title, was eliminated by Stanislas Wawrinka in just four sets. That certainly opens the door for Sam Querrey to make his deepest run here, or dark horse Mikhail Youzhny, who withstood big-serving John Isner to make the fourth round. Somehow, my most decisive quarter became the one that's most up in the air, and I'd love to see Querrey make the run for the Americans.

Turning to the ladies, top seeded Caroline Wozniacki has been emphatic in her goal of proving she deserves her ranking. Through three rounds she's only lost three games, though she hasn't yet faced a player in the top seventy. Her next opponent, Maria Sharapova had an ever-so-slightly tougher draw, and though I am rooting for Caro in the long run, I feel the Russian might just have an edge in the fourth round and she's still my favorite for the quarter. But Svetlana Kuznetsova, who's been equally solid in her first three matches could pose a bigger threat than I originally thought. If two former U.S. Open champs are left battling for the first women's semi spot, it could be quite a battle.

Kim Clijsters has advanced with little drama herself, even if she's given up serve a few times when clearly in charge of her matches. The defending champ still look good to continue her run, but with Roland Garros finalist Sam Stosur or tough-as-nails Elena Dementieva looming as quarterfinal opponents, she will surely be tested in the future. The Australian survived a scare in the first round, but has been solid ever since, and the Russian staged an awesome come-from-behind victory against Daniela Hantuchova on Friday, reminding us all why she's known as the best player without a Major. Though Kim has winning records against both, she sure stands to lose her first set of the tournament in the coming round.

In the quarter which originally seemed so wide open, somewhat surprisingly the two top seeds have advanced to the quarters. While poor Victoria Azarenka retired early with a concussion, two-time champ Venus Williams and French Open winner Francesca Schiavone are the ones vying for the third semi, and at this point I have to go with the more-experienced American. Though a knee injury originally made me doubt her prospects in New York, she's clearly better suited for these faster surfaces than the Italian, and might even be able to make a run for the title.

Rounding it out for the women, four solid ladies are all contending for the last spot in the semis. Wimbledon stand-out Kaia Kanepi continued her summer rebirth when she took out fourth-seeded Jelena Jankovic and Yanina Wickmayer survived some tough opponents to make it this far. Then there's new crowd favorite Andrea Petkovic who's danced her way to her best ever Major showing and Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva. Like with the men, this quarter could really go to anyone, but I have to give the slightest of advantages to the Russian who needs to prove her performance at the All England Club wasn't a fluke.

Of course, as we kick off the final week of the U.S. Open, I'm sure there will be plenty more surprises to come. At this point, I'll be happy if even one of my choices makes it through to the final four. But you can't say that we haven't been able to witness some top-notch tennis in the last few days. And the way things are going, we are in for a lot more.

As for predictions for next year, well, I think I'm gong to have to find another theme!

A Weekend of Surprises

Four finals were contested today in Europe, and all four yielded some unlikely champion. It started in Prague, where both top seeds withdrew early due to injury -- Lucie Safarova with a hamstring pain and Alexandra Dulgheru with a knee problems. Two more early drop-outs by Klara Zakopalova and Gisela Dulko further thinned the draws out -- all those walkovers certainly opened the field for some lesser-known players to advance. But ultimately, Budapest champ Agnes Szavay fought her way to her second straight final against eight-time ITF titleist Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. It wasn't quite as cut-and-dry as you might expect. The Czech didn't seem to have stage-fright in her first Tour final and rebounded nicely to take the second set from Szavay, 6-1. Neither were particularly aggressive on serve -- there were no aces and no double faults, and each won just about half of their first attempts. Finally, after about two hours of play, the more-experienced Agnes was able to pull out the win, her second title in a row, and extend her win streak to ten straight matches. The results in Palermo might have been a little more shocking. Top seed and defending champ Flavia Pennetta had been playing solid ball all week and hadn't dropped a set in her first four matches. Kaia Kanepi, who'd made the quarters at Wimbledon as a qualifier just a few weeks back, had been similarly impressive, taking out Sara Errani easily in the third round and the woman who'd ended Aravane Rezai's run after that. The one-time top twenty player had clawed herself out of triple digits and had a decent 2-3 record against the tough Italian, but Flavia had the crowd and momentum on her side. The match began as you might expect with Pennetta getting off to quick lead by breaking her opponent on her first service game, but Kanepi was able to square up and even the score. She took advantage of a weak serve, winning more than sixty percent of Flavia's first attempts, and stayed aggressive herself. Though both traded breaks throughout the match, Kanepi never again found herself at a deficit and after a strong week sealed off her first Tour championship with a 6-4, 6-3 win over the heavy favorite -- not a bad way to enter the hard court season. The surprises didn't stop on the men's side. A still-questionable Nikolay Davydenko headlined the men's draw in Stuttgart, but lost early after putting up a fight against Daniel Gimeno-Traver. And Roland Garros semifinalist Jurgen Melzer was just overpowered in the third round by eventual finalist Albert Montanes. I have to admit I was a bit surprised that the Spaniard met Gael Monfils for the title -- the Frenchman has been ranked within the top ten, but even in spite of his valiant performance at Davis Cup last weekend, I don't give him a lot of credit. I was impressed, though, when he fought his way though consecutive three-setters to make the championship match. But ultimately, my doubts about his fitness proved correct as the third seed folded to Montanes after losing the first set -- an ankle injury forced Monfils to retire after less than an hour of play. It was certainly a nice way to avenge Spain's drubbing in Paris at the hands of the French last week. The Spanish victory parade continued a little further north in Sweden where Nicolas Almagro took on world #5 Robin Soderling in Bastad. The man with home field advantage had been battling from behind all week and had played a couple three-setters himself. Almagro, though ranked a few spots below the two-time French Open finalist has been solid all spring, making the semis in Madrid and the semis in Paris. He had a bit of a brain-freeze against qualifier Franco Skugor in the third round, losing the first set, but was otherwise clean on his way to his eighth career final. Even though Almagro had won two of the pair's previous meetings on clay, I thought the more consistent Soderling was easily the favorite for this match. And though the Spaniard ran off with a lead by breaking his opponent late in the first set, when Robin tied up the score in the second -- winning all of his first serves -- I assume he'd take that momentum with him to the crown. But Nicolas wasn't intimidated by the defending champ. After staying on serve early in the third, Almagro won four straight games to take the match and his sixth career title. With this weekend's wins, two champions were upended and one brand new champion was crowned. And it certainly looks like momentum is shifting a bit -- I look forward to seeing more of not only the winners in the coming weeks, but also some of the new faces that are just beginning to make an impact on the Tour. And, as we've seen this year, even heavy favorites can be beaten once in a while!