Even More Upsetting

There seems to be a strange new trend in tennis these days, where players, even the most favored ones, prove they're fallible time and again. We saw it happen throughout the fortnight at Wimbledon, and the phenomenon resumed posthaste once the trophies were presented.

Here's the thing, though: it's not enough to simply poke a hole or two in the draw -- you've got to follow through after that. That was less the case at the All England Club, with the vanquishers of both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both losing one round later. Things weren't much better on the ladies' side -- while Sabine Lisicki rode her upset of Serena Williams all the way to the final, Michelle Larcher de Brito couldn't do much more after defeating Maria Sharapova in the second round.

That same trend has also manifested itself in the current tournaments. Daniel Brands, having scored a huge upset over Federer in his Gstaad opener, subsequently lost to Victor Hanescu a day later, while Albert Montanes ousted top Umag seed Richard Gasquet and then lost a long battle Friday to Gael Monfils. And Ons Jabeur, who ousted defending Baku champion Bojana Jovanovski on Wednesday, suffered an ankle injury during her match today, allowing qualifier Magda Linette -- ranked #226 in the world -- into her first ever Tour semi. But hope is not lost for everyone, and a couple players still have a shot at proving their early successes this week were no fluke.

Nineteen year old Elina Svitolina won her first Tour title last year in Pune, beating Andrea Petkovic in the process, and in 2013 she's made the semis in both Cali and Bad Gastein. This week she took to the hard courts of Baku as the seventh seed and earlier today took out Birmingham finalist Donna Vekic in a quick two sets. In the semis she'll face Alexandra Cadantu, the only other seed left in the draw -- the Ukraine native lost the pair's only previous meeting, but that was some two years ago when she was ranked outside the top four hundred. A win on Saturday -- and, dare we speculate, maybe on Sunday too -- would not only underscore her performance so far, but might just push her into the higher tiers of the sport.

Meanwhile in Gstaad, Robin Haase is trying to make a similar move up the rankings. The Dutchman, who returns to Kitzbuhel next week to defend the title he's won the past two years, has yet to manage a sustained stay in the top forty. But after dominating third-seeded Janko Tipsarevic in Switzerland, the twenty-six year old survived a two-and-a-half hour battle against Marcel Granollers to make the semis. With world #29 Feliciano Lopez the highest seed remaining, the field is wide open for Haase to add a new trophy to his case and maybe give him the oomph he needs to really establish himself in the sport.

Of course upsets have been known to bring tears to the eye, but while both these players have caused their opponents woe this week, they'll want to make sure their own cheeks stay dry throughout the summer. It'll be a hard task, to be sure, but after the performances they've already put up there's no reason think it's impossible.

And with the way things are going this summer, there may be no better time to get stuff done.

A Long Time Coming

The last few years have been a long slog for a couple players on Tour. Whether they've had flashes of brilliance, fought to stay among the elite or battled back from injury, the trophy shelf remained fairly empty. But with some hard hitting performances over the last week, that all changed.

Robin Haase has really come a long way over the last year. He began 2010 ranked just inside the top five hundred, but put together some nice wins to rise into the double digits by December. In the course of twelve months, he took Nicolas Almagro to five sets at Roland Garros and built a two-to-one set lead on Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but it wasn't until this year that the twenty-four year old began to really hit his stride. He made the third round at two Majors and was within a few spots of his career high ranking before he even came to Kitzbuhel, Austria.

Unseeded at the Bet-at-Home Cup, the Dutchman wasn't dealt the easiest draw, facing red-hot Feliciano Lopez in the second round and sixth-seeded Andreas Seppi a match later. Though he was spared the ordeal of meeting veteran champion Juan Ignacio Chela in his first ever final, he nevertheless got a challenge from former #22 Albert Montanes in the championship match. The Spaniard had won all five of his previous titles on clay and, though he'd struggled in recent months, was clearly the more experienced player on Saturday.

But it didn't faze Haase. After allowing his opponent to draw even and force a third set, the underdog came up with the goods in the decider to secure the win in just over two hours. Now in the top fifty, he'll start his summer hardcourt season on a high note, and if he harnesses his momentum well, we could see big things from him.

Radek Stepanek was a little more used to the limelight. Ranked in the top ten more than five years ago, he'd fallen into the low double digits when illness kept him out of play most of the year. He hadn't played a final since Brisbane last year and hadn't won one for almost a year before that. He'd showed some signs of getting back on track this year, beating Mardy Fish Down Under and taking a set from Nadal at Queen's Club, but he was still titleless until he came to Washington, DC.

Though he'd received first round byes in the U.S. capital the last three times he'd appeared, he'd never gotten out of the third round. This year, however, he was unseeded, and apparently it served him well. Most of his road was cleared for him -- would-be second round opponent Fish pulled out of the tournament with a heel injury and last year's runner-up Marcos Baghdatis was eliminated on Friday -- but he was impressive against Fernando Verdasco in the quarters and never faced a break point against Gael Monfils in the final. In just over ninety minutes he'd claimed his biggest title since 2006 and secured himself a spot back in the top thirty. Not bad for a week's work.

On the other side of the country, Aggie Radwanska was doing her best to get her name back on people's minds. Once a top-ten player, she's spent most of the last four years in the top twenty but hasn't won a Tour title since 2008. But she's one of the most consistent players on the circuit and is routinely still around the latter parts of tournaments. She came a stone's throw from taking the title in Carlsbad last year, and fought through foot surgery late in the fall to keep herself in the game in 2011.

Aggie dealt out bagel sets to both Elena Baltacha and Christina McHale -- to whom she only dropped one game -- early in her draw, but was challenged in her later rounds. Daniela Hantuchova scored a 6-0 lead in the quarters before eventually bowing to the twenty-two year old and feisty second seed Andrea Petkovic put up a heck of a fight against both Radwanska and her own illnesses before ceding the spot in the final. Against top-seeded Vera Zvonareva on Sunday she battled a nagging shoulder injury and held serve the entire match, earning her fourth win over a top-ten player this year and finally hoisting the winner's trophy again.

All these players have swung momentum back on their side, and whether they're capturing their first title or their first title in years they've at the very least captured the attention of their competition. It's great to see all their hard work and perseverance ultimately rewarded, and if they keep it up, there should be many more spoils to these winners.

A Change of Season

Here in New York we've been teased with signs of spring for several weeks, but there hasn't yet been a definitive shift to the brighter, warmer weather we in the Northeast have been longing for.

Similarly in tennis after a sprinkling of "Golden Swing" events on the Latin American clay, the real shift to dirt only officially took place this week -- and it could be time for some new players to take center stage. The winter hard court season was all about Novak Djokovic, Kim Clijsters, and Caroline Wozniacki. Notwithstanding Kim's injury-induced hiatus, I wouldn't expect any of them to completely disappear in the weeks leading up to Roland Garros, but they might not have the week-after-week success they've become accustomed to.

The men in Houston are helmed by new American #1 Mardy Fish, whose gutsy Davis Cup wins late last year proved that boys from the States do not always crumble on the dirt. Still third-seeded Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, one of my dark-horse favorites at last year's French Open, and Teymuraz Gabashvili, who shocked Andy Roddick in Paris, might be the bigger threats. And Pablo Cuevas, a six-time Challenger titleist on the surface, might be ready to make his own breakthrough on the main Tour.

There are even more specialists over in Casablanca, where the seeds have ten trophies and another twelve finals to their names. Albert Montanes, who beat players like Marin Cilic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Roger Federer on the surface, is hoping to go one better than his runner-up finish here in 2007. He hasn't had the best record this year, but on the courts which make him most comfortable, I expect that to change. And Fabio Fognini, whose French Open second round made my list of best matches of 2010, could easily turn around his year with a few more wins this week.

But if anyone is going to make a big statement in Morocco, it could be former top-ten Frenchman Gilles Simon, the champion here four years ago. He's been climbing his way back into the elite all year, winning a title in Sydney and taking Federer to five sets in the Australian Open second round. It's been a while since he's claimed a clay-court trophy, but with his game back on the right track this could be a good opportunity.

Over in Marbella the ladies draw is stacked with players who've seen most of their success on the dirt. French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova and finalist Dinara Safina spent much of the 2009 season battling each other on this surface, and they very well could meet in the final again, but it might not be that easy. Alexandra Dulgheru has won her only two titles on the Warsaw clay and will be looking to branch out, while feisty Sara Errani has been known to cause some higher ranked players some trouble too.

But we might get a better idea of the real threats this season in Charleston where four top-ten players, including world #1 Wozniacki and Roland Garros runner-up Sam Stosur. Last year's champion at this tournament hasn't had a real deep run at any event in 2011, but now on the courts where she really hit her stride, I would expect her style of play to really shine.

Of course, with the clay court season really just getting started, there's plenty of time for some hopefuls to upend the status quo. But in the next few weeks, don't be surprised if we see a few new faces on the championship blocks -- after all, some previously latent talent is bound to wake up after the winter thaw.

The Haves and the Have-Nots

This past week of tennis seems to highlight two things: players on a roll and players trying to get back on one.

At the Copa Claro in Buenos Aires, the field was fraught with local stars and past champions with Nicolas Almagro leading the pack, fresh off a title in Costa do Sauipe. The Spaniard is probably one of the most under-rated guys in the game, outshone by compatriots Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco. Still he's been in and around the top thirty for almost four years and has racked up at least one title a year for the past six -- incidentally, all on clay. On the way to the quarters in Argentina, he's put together a solid 11-2 record on the year, and if he continues to play like he has, I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve it even further.

The 2009 champ here, Tommy Robredo is also trying to keep his momentum going. After a disappointing season last year, he finally seems to be turning things around. He defeated Mardy Fish in Melbourne and took a set from Roger Federer in the fourth round before winning the championship in Santiago. Back in seeding territory for the Majors, he hasn't lost a set yet in Buenos Aires. But with a third round date with David Nalbandian, things are only getting harder from here.

Less successful in recent months has been Albert Montanes. After scoring wins over Juan Carlos Ferrero, Nikolay Davydenko and Roger Federer last year, he'd gone just 1-3 before the Copa. He struggled through his second round versus a tough Fabio Fognini, but if he keeps his cool against Juan Ignacio Chela today, he could recapture his momentum.

The Marseille draw is headlined by Robin Soderling, ranked at a career high #4 in the world and having just successfully defended his title in Rotterdam. Though he was forced into two tiebreaks against marathon-man Nicolas Mahut in his opener, he's been flawless since and earlier today dismissed Dmitry Tursunov, himself a stunning comeback story, 6-1 in the second set, to make his second final in a row.

There he'll face one-time top-ten player Marin Cilic, once my favorite to take this sport by storm. After failing to three-peat titles in Chennai and Zagreb earlier this year, he dropped precipitously in the rankings and lost the seeding in France. But with wins over #7 Tomas Berdych in the quarters and third-seed Mikhail Youzhny in the semis, the Croat has reached his first final in almost a year. He's lost his only previous meeting with Soderling at last year's French Open, but he sure looks like he's playing back at the top of his game.

Things are a little backwards in Memphis, where the hot player is not the top seed, but the wildcard. Milos Raonic began the year ranked #250, but a fourth round run in Melbourne and his first career title in San Jose have vaulted him to #59. The twenty-year-old backed up his win over Fernando Verdasco in the SAP finals with a three-set victory in the first round this week and somewhat easily clawed his way to the semis where today he faces fourth seed Mardy Fish.

In the other Memphis semi it's a former Major champion trying to come back. Juan Martin Del Potro missed most of 2010 recovering from wrist surgery and failed to make a dent in any tournament when he returned last September. Now ranked back in the top three hundred -- his semifinal showing in San Jose boosted him 186 spots -- he's starting to show his stuff again. He's not quite the big server he was in the past, firing off just seven aces in his quarter against Michael Russell, but he is winning again, and if he can get past Andy Roddick today, it could make for a very interesting final.

Of course it's still early in the year, and we certainly don't know yet whether any of these guys will be able to continue their performances thus far in 2011. But things so far are looking promising for both the consistent players and the comebacks. And if they keep it up, those at the very top of the sport might have something to look out for.

A Weekend of Surprises

Four finals were contested today in Europe, and all four yielded some unlikely champion. It started in Prague, where both top seeds withdrew early due to injury -- Lucie Safarova with a hamstring pain and Alexandra Dulgheru with a knee problems. Two more early drop-outs by Klara Zakopalova and Gisela Dulko further thinned the draws out -- all those walkovers certainly opened the field for some lesser-known players to advance. But ultimately, Budapest champ Agnes Szavay fought her way to her second straight final against eight-time ITF titleist Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. It wasn't quite as cut-and-dry as you might expect. The Czech didn't seem to have stage-fright in her first Tour final and rebounded nicely to take the second set from Szavay, 6-1. Neither were particularly aggressive on serve -- there were no aces and no double faults, and each won just about half of their first attempts. Finally, after about two hours of play, the more-experienced Agnes was able to pull out the win, her second title in a row, and extend her win streak to ten straight matches. The results in Palermo might have been a little more shocking. Top seed and defending champ Flavia Pennetta had been playing solid ball all week and hadn't dropped a set in her first four matches. Kaia Kanepi, who'd made the quarters at Wimbledon as a qualifier just a few weeks back, had been similarly impressive, taking out Sara Errani easily in the third round and the woman who'd ended Aravane Rezai's run after that. The one-time top twenty player had clawed herself out of triple digits and had a decent 2-3 record against the tough Italian, but Flavia had the crowd and momentum on her side. The match began as you might expect with Pennetta getting off to quick lead by breaking her opponent on her first service game, but Kanepi was able to square up and even the score. She took advantage of a weak serve, winning more than sixty percent of Flavia's first attempts, and stayed aggressive herself. Though both traded breaks throughout the match, Kanepi never again found herself at a deficit and after a strong week sealed off her first Tour championship with a 6-4, 6-3 win over the heavy favorite -- not a bad way to enter the hard court season. The surprises didn't stop on the men's side. A still-questionable Nikolay Davydenko headlined the men's draw in Stuttgart, but lost early after putting up a fight against Daniel Gimeno-Traver. And Roland Garros semifinalist Jurgen Melzer was just overpowered in the third round by eventual finalist Albert Montanes. I have to admit I was a bit surprised that the Spaniard met Gael Monfils for the title -- the Frenchman has been ranked within the top ten, but even in spite of his valiant performance at Davis Cup last weekend, I don't give him a lot of credit. I was impressed, though, when he fought his way though consecutive three-setters to make the championship match. But ultimately, my doubts about his fitness proved correct as the third seed folded to Montanes after losing the first set -- an ankle injury forced Monfils to retire after less than an hour of play. It was certainly a nice way to avenge Spain's drubbing in Paris at the hands of the French last week. The Spanish victory parade continued a little further north in Sweden where Nicolas Almagro took on world #5 Robin Soderling in Bastad. The man with home field advantage had been battling from behind all week and had played a couple three-setters himself. Almagro, though ranked a few spots below the two-time French Open finalist has been solid all spring, making the semis in Madrid and the semis in Paris. He had a bit of a brain-freeze against qualifier Franco Skugor in the third round, losing the first set, but was otherwise clean on his way to his eighth career final. Even though Almagro had won two of the pair's previous meetings on clay, I thought the more consistent Soderling was easily the favorite for this match. And though the Spaniard ran off with a lead by breaking his opponent late in the first set, when Robin tied up the score in the second -- winning all of his first serves -- I assume he'd take that momentum with him to the crown. But Nicolas wasn't intimidated by the defending champ. After staying on serve early in the third, Almagro won four straight games to take the match and his sixth career title. With this weekend's wins, two champions were upended and one brand new champion was crowned. And it certainly looks like momentum is shifting a bit -- I look forward to seeing more of not only the winners in the coming weeks, but also some of the new faces that are just beginning to make an impact on the Tour. And, as we've seen this year, even heavy favorites can be beaten once in a while!

Time to Shine

The beauty of a boutique tournament like Estoril is that a few unknown players really have a chance to advance well into a bracket without the concern of a major force stopping them early. The problem with a boutique tournament like Estoril is that every now and then one of those major forces finds his way into the draw and threatens to mess up everything for everyone else.

And that's almost what happened this year, when top-ranked and top-seeded Roger Federer entered the fray. After a series of early upsets since winning the Australian Open title in January -- he hadn't made a quarterfinal since -- it must have looked promising when no other player in the top twenty made the first round. Roger began the tournament as he should have, beating Bjorn Phau in straight sets and being challenged slightly by Arnaud Clement in the third round, needing a first set tiebreak before eventually succeeding.

He must also, surely, have felt comfortable against Albert Montanes in his semifinal match. The two had met three times before, with Roger only ceding one set at Roland Garros in 2008 -- he proceeded to win the next two sets, one and zero. The twenty-nine year old Spaniard is actually strong on clay, as he's won all three of his titles on the surface, including Estoril last year, but he had lost in the opening round of the last two tournaments he's played. It should have been an easy match for King Fed.

But Montanes was determined to support the major selling point of these tournaments -- he would not be intimidated by the multiple record-holding Federer. After rain delayed their match for more than two hours, the Montanes got the early break and never looked back. After less than ninety minutes, the world #34 had handed the long-time #1 his fourth big upset of the season.

In the finals he met Frederico Gil, another man who benefited from a boutique draw. After taking out sixth-seed (and forty-eighth ranked) Florian Mayer in the first round he had an easy road to the finals, challenged again only by fifth-seeded Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the semis. Gil, the #2 player from Portugal -- both are ranked in the triple digits -- had never played in a final before. Estoril certainly was turning out to be a great opportunity for him as well.

Montanes started the championship match swinging, undaunted by the man he'd beaten last year in Casablanca. He was serving for the trophy in the second set when Gil finally got a break back to even things up. The two traded serves again to force a tiebreak which Frederico ultimately won, pushing the game to a deciding third.

Gil began the third set by taking two service games away from his opponent, but Montanes won three games in a row to get back on serve. Finally after more than two and a half hours of play, he broke Gil again to capture his fourth career title, eventually cementing himself as a real force on the dirt -- maybe not quite as strong as Rafael Nadal, but surely someone not to be ignored.

Incidentally, a similar pattern played out on the women's side in Estoril. Twenty-year-old Anastasija Sevastova opened her run by upsetting top-seeded Agnes Szavay in the first round while her final opponent Arantxa Parra Santonja waited a bit longer before dismissed #2 Sorana Cirstea in the semis. The two, both ranked in the low double-digits had never played in a final before, so clearly they were taking advantage of the opportunity in Portugal.

There was plenty of sloppy serving on both sides of the net on Saturday -- the Latvian got just over half of her first attempts in, and Arantxa won forty percent of her second attempts. But Sevastova was able to break her opponent six times and held on for the win in about seventy minutes of play.



So now, just two weeks away from the start of the French Open, we have a slew of new players to keep in mind. While it's probably premature to call any of them favorites to win the Major, they certainly could cause more than a little turmoil in the draws. After all, if they could pull off upsets like these in Paris, it doesn't look like anyone is safe.

Digging Out of a Hole

A funny thing happens during Grand Slams -- every year, almost without fail, as I watch the men play, I'm amazed by how many five set matches we see. And every year I wonder if we've set the record for time on court or games played. This time I feel it has to be true!

It's a testament to the fitness and ability of these athletes that they can put forth so much effort for three, even four, straight hours -- and a bigger testament to their mental toughness that they can pull themselves together and come back in a match they would have lost in any other tournament.

Take for example the marathon second round between U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro and my dear James Blake which lasted four and a quarter hours. Blake led the thing two sets to one, and at a non-Major would have been off the court -- with a wholly different result -- more than a hundred minutes sooner. While I personally was rooting for the American to pull off the upset, I have to hand it to DelPo for continuing to show the perseverance of a champion and once again quieting critics who say he isn't fit enough to be a contender.

Even more impressive, though, were a couple of matches contested on Thursday.

Thirtieth seed Juan Monaco, once ranked #14 in the world, has been clawing himself back from a rough 2009. He should have been a heavy favorite against Frenchman Michael Llodra, who hadn't passed the first round of the Australian Open since 2000. But after just over an hour, Monaco inexplicably found himself in a two set deficit. The two men traded breaks in the third, ultimately forcing a tiebreak, but then it was all Argentine. Juan won almost two of three points for the rest of the game and actually took every point on his first serve in the fourth set. Somehow he was able to regroup just in time to pull off the victory.

Spain's Albert Montanes found himself in a similar predicament while facing #104 Stephane Robert. The two had met twice before in Challenger events way back in 2004, but Montanes has clearly had the better career since then. A titlist in Bucharest and Estoril last year, he claimed the thirty-first seed in Melbourne, but after losing the second set tiebreak he was in trouble, too. He might have benefited from his less-experienced opponent losing steam, though, as the next three sets combined took less time than the first two put together -- Montanes upped the quality of his serve while Robert's fell apart and only allowed one break opportunity from that point on.

One seeded player, though, wasn't able to avoid the upset. Veterans, David Ferrer and Marcos Baghdatis have been around for years and the Spaniard won their two previous meetings in straight sets. He would have here, too, had this only been a best-of-three tournament. But Baghdatis, the winner in Sydney last week and the '06 finalist at the Open, tends to do well Down Under. He was unable to convert on any of five break chances in the first set, but like Monaco he rallied in the third-set tiebreak. And after averaging only sixty-three percent on first serve in the opening two sets, he improved to 87.5% in the last two. The Cypriot closed out the four-plus hour match with a 6-1 set to make the third round for the fifth time in his career.

Playing five sets is clearly a test of physical endurance, but even more so of mental maturity. And when players do everything they can to secure a straight-set victory only to find themselves still trying to smack forehands and fire off serves hours later, it's easy to see how even the best players can let big leads crumble -- Blake, after all, had been infamous for an eleven match losing streak in five-setters. But hats off to those who are able to stay with it, and even play better as the match wears on. Of course it remains to be seen if any of these players can follow up their recent wins, or if they'll be too exhausted to even lift a racket in their next match. But at least they've proven they shouldn't be counted out too soon.

And that maybe they should be considered even more of a threat now.

So Close!

I had a whole other headline planned out this morning.

After I heard that James Blake had won his two-day semifinal match against Nikolay Davydenko, I started picturing a world in which an American would become a force on clay -- or at least win a title or two on the elusive surface.

And he almost did it.

He had two championship points against Spain's Albert Montanes, who had won his only previous title at the International Series event in Amersfoort. But after he lost the second set James fell apart in the third, double faulting four times and winning less than a quarter of his second serves.

Regardless of the loss, it was a good showing for Blake, who hadn't made a final since Houston last year. He played strong all week, and with Roland Garros only two weeks away, he could reestablish himself as a force.

Meanwhile at the inaugural Serbian Open being held in Belgrade, world #3 Novak Djokovic made his hometown proud. For the title he faced lucky loser Lukasz Kubot, the 179th-ranked Pole who beat Igor Andreev and Ivo Karlovic on his way to his first career singles final.



It was Novak's second championship of the year, and his latest argument in favor of a higher ranking. Hard to believe, but with the 250 points he earned this week, he's slowly inching toward Roger Federer. If he continues his roll next week in Madrid, we could see him unseed the former #1.

Victory is just a stone's throw away!