Challenges at the Challengers

I don't often cover the Challenger Series events, but for a couple reasons, this year's action in Indian Wells before the main tournament kicks off next week is worth an extra look.

First let's start with the action on court, because we've already seen some stellar results.

On the men's side there's a lot at stake for fourteenth seed Marcos Giron, who currently sits atop the series' leaderboard -- the Americans who earn the most points during the four tournament stretch, which included events in New Haven, Houston and Newport Beach over the last few months, get an entry to the main draw next week. The twenty-six year old is currently ranked just outside the top hundred, so may need the extra boost to make the cut. He's currently on court with Britain's Ryan Peniston, in danger of being pushed to a third set, but could seal the deal soon. And then, of course, is Frances Tiafoe, who's my long (and getting longer) shot to make a big breakthrough this year. He, thankfully, won his first match against Michael Mmoh in a convincing two sets.

But perhaps the big story this week is Jack Sock, the one-time top ten player who now sits all the way down at #768 in the world. Before this week, he'd only won a single singles match in some eighteen months, crying in relief when he beat Radu Albot in Delray. But he may have found that spark again in Indian Wells. Against top seeded Ugo Humbert, who kicked off this year with his first career title in Auckland and then made the semis in Delray, Sock was able to score a straight set win in the second round and will now face Evgeny Donskoy for a spot in the quarter. A win there could set him on pace for even more success down the road.

The ladies' draw also has some interesting bright spots. While the series' leaders didn't fare quite so well -- both Madison Brengle and CoCo Vandeweghe both lost their opening rounds -- some others are nonetheless making nice comeback runs. First there's Yanina Wickmayer, who was once ranked #12 in the world but whose career was interrupted by everything from back injury to Lyme's disease. Now outside the top 150, she surged past wildcard Claire Liu and then battled Brengle in a two and a half hour match, where she avenged a loss from last month at an ITF event in Kentucky. A couple more wins like that could mean a lot for her as she looks to mount a comeback.

But my favorite story on the women's side is none other than Vera Zvonareva, a two-time Grand Slam finalist and former world #2, she too has been plagued by injury and actually used her time off tour to get a college degree. Now ranked at #319, she's had a couple wins in 2020, but it'd been a while since any real big heads. She may have turned the tide this week though, opening with a victory over Acapulco standout Xiyu Wang in her opener and then ending a streak of eight straight losses, which extended back to 2004, to Sam Stosur in her second round. Up next for the veteran Russian is top seed Katarina Siniakova, so the task only gets harder from here. But, if you know me at all, you know how much I love rooting for this feisty underdog.

Match results aside, though, there's another issue that seems to have come back into the forefront this week, and that's the one of player pay. It's long been a hot button topic in the sport, where the handful of lucky athletes who can win Grand Slams and other big events can earn millions of dollars, while the vast (vast) majority of players are making comparatively nothing -- paying to fly not only themselves around the world and board up at hotels, but for a team of coaches and physios too, all to make just a couple thousand dollars if they lose in an early round. And they're not making the same kind of dough the Serenas and Rafas of the world are in endorsements.

Darren Cahill most recently pointed out the huge discrepancy in prize money between someone who won just two matches in Dubai and someone who won just one match more. And as pointed out by Nicole Gibbs -- who earned a paltry $1,130 in her first round loss this week -- that hits players ranked as high as #31 in the world.

Let’s also take a moment to acknowledge that in this case “lower ranked” applies to the 31st ranked player in the world (the cut for that event).

Rest of us making pennies.

— Nicole Gibbs (@Gibbsyyyy) February 24, 2020

Borrowing a point made by the late David Foster Wallace in one of his many glorious essays on tennis, can you imaging being better than all but thirty people in the world at your chosen profession and not being able to make a living?

Yes, I realize that, in a world where income inequality is such a far-reaching problem, pointing out its impact on people who play a "game" may miss the forest for the trees, but you have to remember that this is people's livelihoods and one they won't be able to sustain as long as us normal people can stick with our own careers.

That's one of the big benefits of these Challenger Series events: giving players at lower ranks -- and again, by lower, we're often talking about low double-digit rankings -- an opportunity to play more matches, grab more ranking points, and eventually gain entry to the bigger tournaments, as Giron hopes to do. Still it would be great if some of those sky-high prices we pay for tickets to the U.S. Open and other events -- I don't even want to mention what grounds passes for middle Saturday cost me last year! -- went to increase payouts at these events.

The idea of upping purses for all players is one shared by those ranked high and low, and if we really want to keep the best talent coming to the sport, we're going to have to get something done about this soon.

Look Who's Back!

The ladies have about half a round of play in the books at Indian Wells, but all eyes will be on one player this week.

Serena Williams makes her first appearance at the BNP Paribas Open since 2001 tomorrow, ending a fourteen year ban on a tournament she once vowed she would never play again.

You remember what happened -- after losing to Venus in the quarterfinals, Elena Dementieva made a comment about how Richard Williams is really the one who decides who wins the siblings' matches, and when the elder sister pulled out of the semi minutes before the start of the match, fans suspected something fishy. They booed Serena mercilessly during the final, allegedly slung racial slurs at her father and ultimately caused her to break down in the locker room. Serena was so traumatized by the experience she refused for years to return to the California desert.

But that changes in 2015. In a letter to Time Magazine this past February, she acknowledged how much things -- she, the fans, tennis itself -- have changed in the last decade and a half and that she was finally ready to come back.

She opens against Monica Niculescu in Friday's night match, and as the top seed and undisputed world #1, Serena will be the heavy favorite. She may have to shake off a few cobwebs of course -- we've seen how she can be a little off her game during early rounds before finally finding her groove, and this time more than ever nerves could play a factor. But she's won the title in Indian Wells twice -- including in 2001 when she withstood the jeers of the crowd to beat Kim Clijsters in the final -- and she's riding an eleven match win streak into the tournament. As with most events she enters -- this trophy is hers to lose.

Of course there are a few who may be a little less excited to see Serena return -- in Williams' absence, players like Daniela Hantuchova, Vera Zvonareva, Jelena Jankovic and, most recently, Flavia Pennetta have been able to thrive, notching some of the biggest wins of their respective careers. And 2013 champ Maria Sharapova, still unable to get the upper hand versus her long-time rival, may have to face her again in a final if she wants to reclaim this crown.

But while the road may be tougher for pretty much everyone entered in the draw, with Serena back, whoever does walk away with the title will know just how much she earned it.

Veterans' Days

Over the past several years we've seen this sport transform from one dominated by youngsters to one where the over-thirty crowd can not only survive, but actually thrive. And this week in particular some older players are not only proving they're still relevant, but a couple might finally be coming into their own.

We've talked already about how Sam Groth is coming into his own so late in his career, and he really has been able to follow up early in the year. The twenty-seven year old Australian lost a squeaker to Milos Raonic in the Brisbane quarterfinals to start the year and went on to win his first matches at his homeland's Major a few weeks after that. He's still got a lot of work ahead of him though -- pro since 2006, he's only just reached his career high ranking of #70 in the world. But he certainly has a chance to improve things -- he'll take on another big server in Kevin Anderson tonight in his Memphis second round and an upset of the second seed could give him a boatload of confidence the rest of the week. With players like big John Isner and U.S. Open finalist Kei Nishikori still in the field, he's going to need it.

There are other veterans on the rise this week, but many of them are climbing back after recent time outs. Nicolas Almagro missed much of last year with a foot injury and has had some trouble getting his footing back in 2015. He lost his opener in Sydney to last season's standout Pablo Cuevas and then couldn't do much damage at all to Nishikori in Melbourne. At #82 in the world now, the Spaniard's at his lowest ranking in almost nine years. He might finally be back on track now though -- after a straight set win over little-known Blaz Rola on Monday in Sao Paulo, he stunned top seeded Tommy Robredo last night, reaching his first quarterfinal since last spring. He'll get a rematch with Cuevas for a spot in the semis, but on a surface where he's much more comfortable, he might just be able to turn the tables in his favor this time.

Francesca Schiavone has been doing the same at the resurrected tournament in Antwerp. The one-time Grand Slam champion has struggled in her early thirties, losing in the first round of all but one of the last ten Majors she's played. Now ranked #81 in the world, she was winless this year before playing qualifying rounds in Belgium, but powered through rising star Oceane Dodin on her way into the main draw at the Diamond Games. She opened her campaign with an easy win over Klara Koukalova and earlier today trounced second seed Angelique Kerber in under an hour, dropping just two games to the top-ten German. The road gets tougher from here of course -- she'll take on Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarters -- but the fifth seed has already survived two three-set matches this week and the much more experienced Italian might have what it takes to score another upset.

Down in Pattaya City a couple more much-decorated vets are jumping back into the spotlight. Vera Zvonareva and Daniela Hantuchova, who combined to win the first three titles contested in Thailand, had fallen off the map over the last few year. Dani, injured or ill for much of the last two years finished 2014 at her lowest ranking of the century, while the Russian, who skipped an entire season after shoulder surgery, has struggled to regain her top form since her return. But both players have pulled off wins over low seeds this week -- Vera taking out China's Shuai Zhang and the Slovakian upending a talented Zarina Diyas. With only one seed left in the draw, either one of these comeback stories could keep going quite a while longer.

But perhaps the real story of this season has been the rapid ascent of thirty-one year old Gilles Muller who'd never before this year cracked the top forty. The Luxembourger, one of just two men from his country ranked in the top thousand -- the other is #781 in the world, reached the semis in Sydney, took out both John Isner and Roberto Bautista Agut at the Australian Open and began his run in Rotterdam with a tight win over comeback kid David Goffin. Last night he stunned Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets, notching his biggest win since taking out then-#10 Richard Gasquet nearly two years ago. Of course, with a likely meeting against Stan Wawrinka in the quarters, he'll have to raise his game even higher from here. But it sure looks like all the time he spent slugging away on the Challengers' Tour has paid off, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep his momentum going.

With thirty-four year old Victor Estrella Burgos's historic win in Quito last weekend, maybe we shouldn't be surprised to see players like these only just beginning to blossom. Hopefully, whether they're on the rebound or just peaking, they'll be able to keep up for months and years to come. After all, there's no reason that just the young guns should have all the fun.

3...2...1...

The ball may have already dropped to ring in the New Year, but we're still a couple days away from the official start of the 2015 tennis season. And with last year's champions looking to continue their momentum, former greats hoping for a successful return and a couple newbies seeking their big breaks, you know we're going to see some top-notch action from the start.

Of course it won't be full steam ahead for everyone -- Juan Martin Del Potro delayed his comeback and pulled out of Brisbane, while a couple players who entered exhibitions at International Premier League events ultimately withdrew from early tournaments too. And even those who did hit the court again struggled -- Rafael Nadal, playing his first match since an appendectomy in November, won just two games off Andy Murray at the Mubadala World Tennis Championships this week. Results like these could open the door to plenty others.

The only woman who's ever won the title in Shenzhen won't be back to defend, of course, and top tier champs like Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova will be eager to fill her spot. But they're not the only ones -- last year's runner-up Shaui Peng had a strong end to her 2014 season and could get a nice boost from homecourt advantage. And Zarina Diyas, who quietly climbed to #33 in the world, got to the final in Osaka in October and could take a couple in the field here by surprise. But I'm going to keep an eye on Vera Zvonareva, whose comeback last year was half-hearted at best. If she's fully recovered now, she might be ready to cause some of the damage we all know she's capable of.

The women's bracket in Brisbane is a little more intimidating with eight top twenty players hitting the courts in Australia. Singapore qualifiers Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic lead the pack but the biggest surprises could come from some unseeded spoilers. Hometown favorite Sam Stosur launched a late-season comeback last year, reaching the semis in Beijing and taking her third title in Osaka, and 2014 runner-up Victoria Azarenka, who's coming off her first trophy-less season since 2008, will look to make up points right off the bat. But perhaps the player with the greatest chance of shaking things up is Karolina Pliskova who won the Girls' title in Melbourne back in 2010 -- in September she made the final in Hong Kong and followed up that run with titles in Seoul and Linz. She was an alternate at the Tournament of Champions in Sofia and lost the only match she played, but with wins over players like Andrea Petkovic, Angelique Kerber and Ana Ivanovic over the last twelve months, she certainly has the talent to take out the big guns.

There's plenty star power in the men's draw too -- Roger Federer, my player of the year, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic all are coming off breakthrough seasons, but potential threats lurk even deeper in the draw. Alexandr Dolgopolov, whose own stellar 2014 was cut short by knee surgery in July, will be back in action -- he only won one match since his return in Tokyo last September, but it was over an always-tricky Gilles Simon, and he might finally be up for even bigger challenges now. And native son Lleyton Hewitt snatched this title from Fed last year -- he may be well off his career high ranking at #50 in the world, but he's one of those guys that never gives up. Perhaps the same can be said for compatriot Bernard Tomic, who briefly fell out of the top hundred last year after a second round loss at Wimbledon. He may not be at the top of his game these days, but he did manage a runner's-up finish in Sydney in 2014 -- admittedly one win short of his previous result -- and he shocked everyone with a title run in Bogota over the summer. Somehow, it seems, every time we write him off, he manages to pull off a big win.

Over in Chennai, Stan Wawrinka will look to reclaim the crown that launched him into the sport's elite, but players like 2014 standoutRoberto Bautista Agut and comeback kid David Goffin will be out to derail his plans. So will some of last year's most promising young guns -- Jiri Vesely had quite a strong start to last season, and Borna Coric who stunned Rafael Nadal last year in Basel, is just a hair out of the top hundred now and seems primed to climb much higher. But I'd like nothing more than to see Feliciano Lopez to make a big run here. The likely-second seed is coming off a banner 2014 season, reaching a career-high #14 ranking and notching wins over Nadal, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic -- he hasn't won a hardcourt title since 2010, but the thirty-three year old veteran has shown he has what it takes to put an end to that stretch.

More than a couple stars made their way out to Doha too -- defending champion Rafael Nadal and world #1 Novak Djokovic may headline, but a couple former top ten players could also make a stand. Fernando Verdasco finished 2014 at his lowest year-end ranking since 2006 and will look to turn things back around, and fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, playing his first event since pulling out of his French Open first round, could rack up a couple of much needed points to improve his #71 ranking before heading down to Melbourne. But also look out for Ernests Gulbis, whose shoulder injury kept him off the alternate list in London -- he really slowed down after his surprise semifinal appearance at Roland Garros, but he's got the kind of game that can really catch the favorites off guard, and it might just be the perfect time to show us exactly what he can do.

It's hard to say who'll ultimately come out on top this tennis season, but the good thing about each new year is that everyone starts off with a clean slate. Whether the old favorites continue their reigns or some upstarts make a push into the elite, we're certainly in for some great action over the coming months. And it all kicks off in just a few more days...

All Seems Right With the World...

Last year at Wimbledon five of the top ten men's seeds and six of the top women did not make it out of the second round.

That's kind of a lot.

We still have more than a day left to see whether we mark the same numbers so quickly this year, but while the first couple rounds of the French Open certainly suggest even the most decorated players are vulnerable at the Majors, so far the favorites have been performing up to expectations, with Jelena Jankovic the only casualty in the top ten.

But that doesn't mean they're out of the woods yet -- plenty of unseeded players have already shown what they can do at the All England Club, and they might just keep their streaks running.

Kaia Kanepi is traditionally a strong player on grass, but the two-time quarterfinalist, plagued again by injury, has dropped a bit down the rankings the last few months. Still her straight-set, barely one-hour victory over Jankovic on Tuesday reminds us she can't be counted out. She'll have a tough road forward, though, facing fellow Cinderella Yaroslava Shvedova next and possibly Eastbourne champion Madison Keys next, but she has the talent to make a big run in spite of those challenges.

So does 2010 runner-up Vera Zvonareva, who missed all of last season and more with a shoulder injury and had only won one match in her return this year. But the Wimbledon wildcard held tough against hometown girl Tara Moore in their two-day first round, finally finishing her off 9-7 in the third. It was her first Major match win in two years and sets up a meeting with world #87 Donna Vekic, a threat on grass, yes, but one the former top-two player should be able to handle if she plays to her ability.

Michelle Larcher de Brito hasn't had quite the same success as these two, but the twenty-one year old Portuguese -- known more for her screeching grunts than her on-court performance these days -- managed a shocking defeat of Maria Sharapova last year at the All England Club, posting her second third round appearance at a Grand Slam. She's only pulled off one WTA-level match since then, though, and had to qualify for the main draw in London. But she's exceeded expectations so far, taking out two-time Major champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in her opener. She next faces wildcard Jarmila Gajdosova who she beat two years back in Stanford, the pair's only meeting, so she has a good shot at matching, if not beating, her previous best results here.

On the men's side, 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt proved he's still someone to be reckoned with -- playing his sixteenth consecutive Wimbledon, the veteran Australian is back in the top fifty and in January won his first title in almost four years in Brisbane. But seven of his trophies have come on the lawn, and after his three-hour win over Michael Przysiezny we were reminded of why. He'll next face last year's surprise semifinalist Jerzy Janowicz, who could still pose a threat despite a 10-14 record coming into this week. But the Pole was pushed the distance in his first round and that could create an opportunity for the on-paper underdog to cause a stir.

Sergiy Stakhovsky is out to prove he can do the same. The former world #31 is now barely ranked in double digits, but his shocking win over Roger Federer in last year's second round -- the seven-time champion's earliest Slam exit since 2003 -- showed us what the 2010 Den Bosch champ can do on the surface. This year he beat Vasek Pospisil and took Kevin Anderson to a third set tiebreak at Queen's Club, and earlier today he scored a drama-free win over world #10 Ernests Gulbis to get back into the third round. He's never progressed farther at a Major, but with 2013 quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco kicked out early, he won't meet another seed until at least the fourth round, and I like his chances to get there.

Another big Cinderella from year's past is looking to recapture former glory at the All England Club -- and he already has proof that he can do it. Lukas Rosol, he who started the whole trend of sending the favorites home early, took out recent world #24 Benoit Paire in his first round and set up a rematch against top-ranked Rafael Nadal tomorrow. Rafa did get revenge over the Czech a couple months ago in Doha, but his early exit in Halle reminds us this is not his best surface. Rosol is having a pretty good year, too -- he beat Stakhovsky on his way to a Challengers' title in Irving, Texas and took out Jarkko Nieminen and Gilles Simon in Bucharest. He's also now ranked just outside the top fifty, a far cry from the #100 position he held in 2012. And while Nadal, at least having surpassed his performance here last year, struggled against Martin Klizan in his opener and might have a little case of nerves against his nemesis.

We may not have had any truly big fireworks yet this year, but the favorites shouldn't get too complacent. After all we should be well aware of how many surprises occur at the Slams, and any of these guys or gals has the ability to cause them. Whether they realize their potential or not remains to be seen, of course, but there may be no better place than on the grand courts of the All England Club to do just that.

Australian Open: 10 Things I Want to See

Every player comes to a Grand Slam with a couple goals -- whether it's to upset a top seed or to improve on their performance from last year, to make the second week or to win the whole darn thing. Of course not everyone can take home the trophy, especially with the Majors so heavily dominated by a select handful over the last couple years.

But that doesn't mean something short of victory is a failure, and there are plenty of things that could happen over the next two weeks that would make this a very successful and exciting time in Melbourne...even for the players who aren't ultimately crowned champions.

So I've decided to put together a list of things that I'm looking forward to this fortnight. Some are broad, some super specific, many are related, but importantly most of them are well inside the realm of possibility. And with the New Year bringing with it a whole slew of fresh possibilities for the season, there might be no better time to set expectations high.

And so without further adieu, and in no particular order, here's my Wish List for the 2014 Australian Open.

10. Half the seeds lose in the first round

"What a horrible thing to wish for! Seriously, what kind of person are you?"

Okay, calm down. It's not that I wish many any of the favorites harm, but let's face it -- it's kind of fun to watch an underdog come through. Whether you watched seventeen-year-old Victoria Duval stay tough against Sam Stosur at the U.S. Open last year or sat open-jawed as triple-digit-ranked Steve Darcis sent Rafael Nadal packing at Wimbledon, part of you was a little exhilarated by these upsets. No one cares when #98 beats #73 -- but when he beats someone in the top ten, heck someone in the top thirty, you sit up and take notice.

Of course if so many favorites lose early, it isn't all good for the unknowns -- having someone else clear the path for them can make others' ultimate victories less sweet -- but a breakout on such a big stage could really launch the seasons and careers of some next generation stars. The challenge would be for these players to keep up their momentum after the first few days unlike Duval, losing to Daniela Hantuchova in her second round, and Darcis who pulled out right after his historic win. After all if the second week in Melbourne ends up looking like a Challenger event, we should at least see Major-quality play in the back half of the tournament.

9. The Bad Boys make good

It's not unusual for players on the men's Tour -- or the women's for that matter -- to lose their tempers now and then, but usually the ones getting mad have already more than proven themselves on court. Meanwhile the most recent crop of upstarts carry some spotty records at best...some long runs of losses at worst...yet they seem entitled to all sorts of consideration nonetheless. It would be nice for some of them to prove they deserve it this time around.

Ryan Harrison's has long been hailed as the future of American men's tennis, but despite a couple semi showings at lesser tournaments over the years, he's made more headlines for his on court tantrums, receiving fines for racquet abuse and earning the nickname "Mr. Cranky Pants" from Mary Carillo. Bernard Tomic, once a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, has lost in or before the second round in six Majors since and last year lost his driver's license after a series of traffic infractions. And Donald Young's profanity-laced tirade against the USTA in 2011 is only surpassed in arrogance by the seventeen-match losing streak that followed. All of these guys, understandably, have seen their rankings fall -- sometimes precipitously -- from their highs when prospects were greatest.

Whether they are able to turn their luck around in Melbourne remains to be seen. Tomic managed wins over Marcel Granollers and Alexandr Dolgopolov on his way to the Sydney semis -- and may still go further. Harrison gained entry to that event with a win over eighth qualifying seed Alex Bogomolov, a fallen angel himself, but lost immediately after to Nicolas Mahut. And Donald Young, having reached the second round in Auckland, put up a fight but eventually lost there to three-time defending champion David Ferrer. But if any of them can muster the strength for a good showing and keep a positive attitude during it, they might just see their images get a boost along with their careers.

8. Vera Zvonareva wins a match (or more!)

I know I'm not the only one who's missed Bepa.

The former world #2 has only played one match since the 2012 Olympics, when a shoulder injury and subsequent surgery took her out of the game for seventeen months. She's been productive in the meantime, earning a second college degree and all, but her return to the court was less than spectacular -- cursed with an unfortunate opener against top seed and eventual winner Na Li in Shenzhen, she put up a fight in the first set but eventually lost in straights.

The former world #2 -- a semifinalist in 2011 and a doubles titleist a year later -- makes her return to Grand Slam play with a protected ranking, but with so little match action leading up to the even, is far from a favorite. Still the often-volatile Russian has the kind of talent even those in the top twenty crave -- she stunned three higher-ranked players on her way to the Wimbledon final three-plus years ago, and despite a colossal meltdown in her Major championship debut, pulled herself together and repeated the feat in New York a few months later. She also successfully exacted revenge on her vanquishers, beating that year's U.S. Open champ Kim Clijsters at the year-ending event and Serena Williams a few months later in Eastbourne.

Without a seeding it's very possible that Vera gets dealt a difficult, if not impossible, hand in Melbourne, so I'm not holding out a lot of hope. But if anyone's going to be a spoiler in the women's draw, my money's on her. And if she gets her confidence up early, there's no telling where she'd go from there.

7. A qualifier or wildcard reaches the semis

Hey, it's happened before. Then-#86 Alexandra Stevenson won eight matches in a row before losing to Lindsay Davenport in the 1999 Wimbledon semis, and once-unknown John McEnroe did the same twenty-two years earlier, eventually dropping to career rival Jimmy Connors.

More recently we've only had some close calls. David Goffin was ranked #109 in the world when he made the French Open fourth round a few years back, and on-the-rebound Kaia Kanepi was match points shy of the semis at Wimbledon 2010. It would be nice if we saw someone finally make a breakthrough in 2013.

So who are the contenders for this honor? Goffin has another opportunity to make a mark -- he's the third seed in the qualifying bracket -- but perhaps a better chance lies with Martin Klizan. The twenty-four year old Slovak was ranked in the top thirty less than a year ago, and though he failed to defend his title in St. Petersburg, he might be able to mount a comeback now. And British breakthrough Heather Watson has stumbled a bit since making the third round her last year, but the recent top-forty player has scored some big wins in the past and could be a spoiler this time too.

There's also plenty of talent among the wildcards. Jarmila Gajdosova was once ranked in the top twenty-five, but surprisingly has never won a singles match at her home Slam. And teenager Ashleigh Barty (and her partner veteran Casey Dellacqua) played in three Major doubles finals last year -- the rising star might just be ready to launch a career on her own this year. Meanwhile James Duckworth has yet to make a big statement since leaving the junior circuit, but now the twenty-one year old is the right age to do something big. It's not all about the Aussies, though -- American Steve Johnson secured his spot in Melbourne with a U.S. Playoff win. He's already made a third round in New York, and just this week scored a huge win over world #20 Kevin Anderson in Auckland. If he keeps up his game, it could just be his turn to make a statement on a global stage.

6. A Cinderella follows through

It's not enough for a player to have one great performance, of course -- they need to prove it was not a fluke and continue performing in the months and years to come. In the extreme, Rafael Nadal exploded at the 2005 French Open as a relatively unknown #5 seed and went on to become arguably the best clay courter of all time. But even Angelique Kerber, ranked #92 in the world when she made the U.S. Open semis in 2011, has also reached the quarters in Paris and the final four at Wimbledon and has spent the last eighteen months or so in the top ten.

This year more than a few have a chance to show they're no one-hit wonders. Flavia Pennetta, not long ago ranked in single digits, didn't exactly come out of nowhere last year, but the thirty-one year old veteran did reach her first career Slam semi in New York with wins over countrywomen Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci. She only won one match the rest of the season, though, and despite having climbed back up into seeding territory for the Australian Open, she still has something to prove. It's a tall order, but I'd like to see her make at least the fourth round, maybe even a quarterfinal, and if she gets a good draw, she might just do it.

Then there's Jerzy Janowicz, the surprise finalist at the Paris Masters in 2012 who made his way to the semis at Wimbledon a few months later. Problem is, his magical run at the All England Club only claimed one top-twenty player as a victim. His biggest win since then was over world #34 Julien Benneteau in Montreal, and he lost his season opener in Sydney to Alexandr Dolgopolov. He's made his way to seeding at the Open this year, so expectations will be high for his second main draw appearance Down Under, but he's got the talent that can easily get him to the quarters or better.

Both these athletes have a little time however, to deliver -- it'll be months before their Cinderella points come off their rankings. Meanwhile Elena Vesnina, then fresh off her first career title in Hobart, matched her deepest Major run with a fourth round showing last year. She scored a couple other big wins during the season -- Na Li in Eastbourne, Kerber in New Haven -- but could lose a bunch of ground if she doesn't repeat. And Jeremy Chardy, the only unseeded man to make the quarters, has more to defend here than he picked up at all of last year's Masters events combined. He did make the semi in Brisbane though, even taking a set off Roger Federer, but the pressure's only going to build from here. And of course there's Sloane Stephens, the stunner in Australia last year. She's a stone's throw away from the top ten, but a wrist injury forced her out of Sydney this week, so her prospects are questionable. Still, she might just be the U.S.'s best hope for a NextGen star.

Which brings me to my next wish...

5. A young American steps up

This has been a dream of (U.S.-based) pundits for a long time. Yes, we have Serena and Venus Williams, but since Andy Roddick retired a few years back, we have no active American man holding a Grand Slam title. Maybe this is the year that happens.

The best hopes lie with John Isner and Sam Querrey, of course, as they have for several years. But while both have done a fair amount of legwork in the top twenty, with two-time Masters finalist Isner even peaking in the single-digits, they only have one Major quarterfinal between them. And neither is all that young anymore -- at twenty-six, Querrey is older than any man who's won his first Slam since Albert Costa in 2002. I hate to say it, but even with so many top-hundred players in their thirties, these men's best shot may be behind them.

That's not to say all is lost for the Americans. Eyes will be on the likes of Donald Young, Ryan Harrison and Steve Johnson, of course, but let's not forget some others. Tim Smyczek is just off his career high ranking and a third round run at the U.S. Open; he's also scored wins over Jurgen Melzer, Fernando Verdasco and Kei Nishikori in his short career. And Jack Sock, a Junior champion in New York, has already captured a mixed doubles championship as an adult. This would be his first main draw in Melbourne and it would be great to see him take advantage of that.

Perhaps the better shot for the U.S., though, lies with the ladies. Sloane Stephens made a case for herself as the new face of American women's tennis, but others have just a good a shot at carrying the flag. Twenty-four year old Jamie Hampton worked her way to the fourth round at Roland Garros, easily the worst venue for her compatriots in recent years, beat Aga Radwanska on the way to the Eastbourne final and opened 2014 with a quarterfinal win in Auckland. And Madison Keys hasn't reached the same heights quite yet, but she did reach third rounds in two Majors last season and notched wins over top players like Dominika Cibulkova and Na Li. Even more off the radar, Alison Riske put up quite a fight against eventual Auckland champion Ana Ivanovic in the first round last week and beat former world #13 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova on her way to the Hobart quarters. Any of them could cement their careers this fortnight.

4. A Junior becomes an adult

Many of the youngsters discussed in the last section could be re-classified here, but there is a more global lack of success among teenagers these days. Remember when Monica Seles, Jennifer Capriati and Martina Hingis were setting one "youngest ever" record after another? Well, we don't see much of that these days. In fact, fourteen women and thirty men ranked in the top hundred of their respective circuits are in their thirties, and none of the ATP's athletes are in their teens. But there are a couple "kids" out there who could make an impact.

Grigor Dimitrov, dubbed "Baby Fed" years ago, won the Boys' Wimbledon and U.S. Open titles in 2008, but didn't break into double digits until three years later. He did start to gain traction last season, though, stunning Novak Djokovic in Madrid and claiming his first Tour title in Stockholm by taking down world #3 David Ferrer in the final. The Bulgarian hasn't ever put up a big fight at a Major -- his best result yet was a third round at last year's French Open -- but this could be his chance to really break through. With three wins over top ten players in the last twelve months, he's proven he can hit with the best in the sport -- now he just needs to do it on a big stage.

Simona Halep, the 2008 Girls' champion at Roland Garros, has had a little more luck at the Majors, beating then-French Open champ Na Li in New York in 2011 and reaching the fourth round there last year. The young Romanian made the semis in Rome in May and then won three straight non-Slam titles over the summer -- she tacked on number four in New Haven. She's now #11 in the world and poised to go even higher -- a run deep into the second week would vault her straight into that realm.

3. Someone outside the top ten wins the title

It happens from time to time -- Marion Bartoli did it not that long ago -- but not very often. And with a handful of players combining to win the majority of Majors over the last decade, chances for someone else -- even someone in the high single digits -- to break through the ceiling are slim. Still, it's certainly possible for the draws to open up or for an underdog to find his or her stride. Isner could do it, so may Halep, but so might a few others.

Milos Raonic had his first taste of the big leagues in Melbourne a few years back and has since picked up five titles and climbed to eleventh in the world. The young Canadian still hasn't passed the fourth round of a Major despite a big serve and some serious court smarts, but with twelve wins over top ten players in his short career, he's one of those seeds that not even the favorites want to see in their section of the draw. And 2009 semifinalist Fernando Verdasco was on the verge of playing for the championship that year. He's fallen a bit out of favor since then, but a run to the Wimbledon quarters -- where he took eventual champion Andy Murray to five sets -- proves he's not yet ready to slink away. He's ranked just outside the top thirty, so it certainly won't be easy, but he's the kind of player that might just sneak under the radar.

Ana Ivanovic knows what it likes to play in the final here. The former world #1 reached the championship match in 2008, one Slam before winning the French Open. It's been a long road back for the Serb -- after a handful of titles at the turn of the decade, she struggled to close the deal for two straight years. But she's coming straight off a trophy in Auckland, beating seven-time Major winner for it, and could be ready to play for an even bigger crown. Meanwhile largely unknown Carla Suarrez Navarro is still looking for her first career title -- she's lost all five finals she's played, all on clay -- but she made her first big statement here five years ago with a win over then-#6 Venus. Last year she beat Angelique Kerber in New York and finally cracked the top twenty. Objectively she stands a better shot of winning the French Open as a low seed, but she's surprised us all here before and might just do it again.

2. Juan Martin Del Potro makes the final (or better!)

DelPo was ranked #6 when he stunned Roger Federer -- and, frankly, the whole tennis world -- at the 2009 U.S. Open...now he's back in the top five. He won four titles in 2013, reached his first Slam semi since then, and scored wins over every player in the top six. He's already reached the semifinal in Sydney, and as long as he stays healthy he looks primed to take that title too.

That is, of course, always the concern for the big guy. The six-foot-six Argentine has suffered multiple injuries through the years -- his thigh, his wrist, his shoulder -- and with no rest between a likely four match win streak and the first Major of the year, he does risk exhaustion in the coming weeks, especially now that he'll be playing best-of-five. But despite his ground breaking run four years ago, many pundits only consider the big four real contenders at the Slams, and Del Potro, with fourteen career wins against Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Federer -- eight since making his big comeback in 2011, should be out to prove them wrong. He's made the quarterfinals in Melbourne twice, but this could be the year he surpasses that, and maybe -- hopefully -- goes all the way.

1. Victoria Azarenka beats Serena

Like pretty much every player in the field -- in history, in fact -- Vika has an abysmal on-paper record against the world #1. But there was a time, way back when, that Azarenka nearly beat her here in Melbourne. And her three victories have come on pretty big stages. She's even taken a set off Williams in the last two Slam finals they've played and comes Down Under as a two-time defending champion. Still, the young Belorussian has never managed victory over her rival at a Major, where Serena so often plays at a whole other level.

It's time for her to change that.

Of course, as the top two seeds at the Open, for them to meet, it will have to be in the final and it would mean Vika scores the elusive three-peat -- something no woman has done in Australia for fourteen years -- which kind of goes against my general "new storyline" theme. But it seems she's the one young star out there that has the most potential to really fill up her trophy case. She might as well get a jump on it now.

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Wow, is it strange to have gotten through a whole Grand Slam preview piece without spilling digital ink on three-time defending champion Novak Djokovic, world #1 Rafael Nadal or 2008 winner Maria Sharapova?

Fear not -- I'll get to the favorites and the rest of the field in my blogcast over the weekend.

In the meantime, let me know what you're hoping to see at this year's Australian Open. At the start of the year, when anything can still happen, there may be no better time to reach for the stars.

Trying to Squeak By

The first round of this year's Australian Open is in the books and, as should be expected, it's not been without its surprises, its upsets and its close calls. And while some players might be breathing a sigh of relief today, others haven't been so lucky.

The Close Calls

Donald Young isn't seeded in Melbourne, but he comes to the fourth Australian Open of his career with a lot of expectations. After his deep run in New York, he's risen to the #4 U.S. player and could hold the mantle for the next generation of the country's stars. He didn't get off to the best start, though, against German qualifier Peter Gojowczyk, ranked #248 in the world. After taking the first two sets in less than an hour, Young started to struggle -- he dropped serve three times in the third set and only won thirteen points in the fourth. He was finally able to right the ship in the decider, winning just the second five-set match of his career in a relatively quick two and half hours.

Marcel Granollers may not have a ton of expectations on him, but the twenty-sixth seed -- only the second time he's earned the "safety net" at a Major -- will want to prove he deserves the distinction. He ended 2011 on a high note, beating four top-twenty players to take the title in Valencia, but lost his first match of the year in Sydney. Against wildcard Jesse Levine in his opener, he seemed to be off to a good start, serving a first-set bagel to the American in just eighteen minutes. But Levine raised his game after that and after another three hours of play was able to force a fifth set. It might have been a bit too much for him at that point, though -- the Spaniard only dropped six points on serve in the last set, surviving a four hour slugfest and earning his way back into the second round.

Things got a little hairy for thirteenth seed Alexandr Dolgopolov during his opener. The surprise quarterfinalist here last year has a ton of points at stake in Melbourne and, despite a final run in Brisbane, has been less than stellar in his recent matches. He found himself in a hole early against Australia's own Greg Jones, losing the first two sets in just over an hour. But he cleaned up his game once the third started, winning more than ninety percent of his first serves in the back half. He didn't cede a single point on serve in the fifth and, after a rocky start, closed out the match with forty-six winners to his opponent's twenty-nine.

Veteran Gilles Simon was also taken to task by a qualifier. Thailand's Dabau Udomchoke lost the first set, but capitalized on a slew of errors from the Frenchman to take a 2-1 set lead. But the world #201 eventually succumbed to the pressure of his more-experienced opponent. Simon kept the qualifier to less than fifty percent on his serve, converted on all five of his break opportunities, and after three hours and twenty minutes was finally the victor.

It wasn't just the men who struggled in their early matches, of course. Sabine Lisicki was the comeback story of 2011, but she struggled with injury again this year, retiring in Auckland with an ab strain. She looked to be in trouble against qualifier Stefanie Voegele Tuesday, too, dropping the second set and getting down a break in the third. In the hot Melbourne sun, she called for a trainer after the fifth game and was treated for what turned out to be a headache. After losing the next game, she powered back in style to take the next four, winning the set and the match after more than two hours.

Vera Zvonareva, a semifinalist here last year, drew a tough opening round opponent in Alexandra Dulgheru. The twenty-two year old Romanian was once ranked #26 in the world, but hasn't gotten past the second round of a Major since 2010. She brought her A-game against Zvonareva, though, trading breaks in a seventy-minute first set before losing the tiebreak, and forcing the Russian to go the distance when she won the second breaker after another hour-plus of play. But Bepa finally took control in the third set, winning all but three of her first serves and holding herself to just seven unforced errors, eking out the win after more than three hours.

Eighth seeded Aggie Radwanska was on court almost as long. Finding herself down two breaks against Bethanie Mattek-Sands in her first round, she fought her way to a tiebreak, one that lasted twenty-two points and ultimately secured a lead for the American. But the Pole, a semifinalist in Sydney earlier this month and a three-time titleist late last year, turned the tables on the former top-thirty player. She played immaculately the last two sets, committing only five unforced errors, compared to thirty-two from Mattek-Sands, to keep her title hopes alive.

The Upsets

It's not good news for everyone, of course. And while all these guys snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, others couldn't quite hold onto their life buoys.

Fernando Verdasco put up one of the best fights in Australian Open history three years back, and just last year survived a near-four hour battle with Janko Tipsarevic in the second round here. He would not be so successful this year. Against barely unseeded Bernard Tomic, Australia's greatest hope for their next big star, the Spaniard got off on the right foot, taking a two set lead. But the rising star turned the tables in the third, converting on his only break chance. About a half hour later Tomic had successfully forced a fifth set, and though both players kept their serving solid, the Australian never allowed Verdasco to make a dent when returning. With a margin of just five points in his favor that set, Tomic eventually stood as winner.

The scales were much more unbalanced in the biggest upset on the women's side so far. U.S. Open champion Sam Stosur is the hometown favorite in Australia, and had the slimmest of chances of being ranked #1 in the world at the end of this fortnight. All those hopes were shattered on Tuesday, however, when the #6 seed ran into Romanian Sorana Cirstea. The two first met in the 2009 French Open quarterfinal, and their careers have taken decidedly different paths -- though Cirstea seems to have peaked shortly thereafter and fallen since, Stosur has produced some of her best tennis in the years that followed -- but that didn't seem to matter much in their first round match. Cirstea toughed out a long first set, finally taking the lead after winning the tiebreak. She did even better in the second, committing fewer errors and taking heavy advantage of mediocre serving from the favorite. With the loss, Stosur falls to a 1-3 record on the year, not exactly what you'd expect from the woman who seemed unstoppable just a few months back in New York.

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We've just seen two days worth of action in Melbourne, so there's sure to be more surprises in store. Whether the guys and gals who just edged out their early opponents will see their roads get easier or more rocky is still unknown, but it sure looks like there's potential for a couple more fireworks these next two weeks.

And for those who've had an easy time of things so far, they might take note that these players will be out fighting to make sure their efforts so far were not in vain.

Merry Christmas...

On this day, when one particular birth is celebrated around the globe, I thought it appropriate to pay tribute to a few others -- a couple new, and likely lasting, rivalries emerged this year in the sport of tennis. Once dominated by Roger vs. Rafa and Venus vs. Serena, the tide shifted in 2011, and we were treated to one rematch after another, sometimes setting the stage for a new guard in the coming year.

Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Vera Zvonareva

For two players who've been on Tour for what seems like ages, it's kind of funny that these two only met once before this year started -- in Moscow, way back in 2007. Vera was #24 at the time, Aggie #33, but the Russian had already cracked the top ten and had earned a handful of titles, including Cincinnati. Both had career highs since then -- Zvonareva was a two-time Major finalist, and the Pole had become a regular inhabitant of the single- and low double-digits -- but the scales were tipped handily to Vera's side when they faced each other again in Miami.

Zvonareva took their quarterfinal match at the Sony Ericsson Open, but that's about as far as she went. Radwanska pulled off a huge upset of the top seed in the Carlsbad final and repeated a few weeks later in Toronto. After a couple early losses late in the summer, Aggie captured her second title of the year at Vera's expense in Tokyo and was on quite a year-end roll when she scored her fourth win in a row against the former #2 in Istanbul. Zvonareva ends the year a spot ahead in the rankings, but things could change pretty quickly in the new year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pole make a real move to establish herself as one to beat in 2012.



Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Roger Federer

These guys met eight times this year -- eight. And when things started, it looked pretty much the way you thought it would. Federer didn't drop a set in the first six they played, beating the Frenchman on his way to the Doha title and again in the Rome second round. He got himself to a seemingly insurmountable lead in the Wimbledon quarters, but then something seemed to go wrong. After pulling off the most unlikely of upsets, Tsonga then repeated in Montreal, beating Roger again in the round of sixteen.

Things went back to normal after that -- Federer notched a straight set victory in New York and captured his first ever Paris title, beating Tsonga in straight sets. At the year-end championships in London, the Swiss giant underscored his success, backing up a round robin victory with a three-set win in the final. He still holds a fairly one-sided 8-3 record over Jo-Wilfried, but as the Frenchman continues to improve his game, that all could change pretty quickly.



Victoria Azarenka vs. Petra Kvitova

Azarenka had the edge over Kvitova before the year began -- a year older and a bit quicker to mature, she was already ranked #26 in the world when she first beat the Czech at Prague in 2008. But things began changing last year at the All England Club, when the eventual semifinalist bagelled the fourteenth seed in the second set of their third round match.

And this year was, clearly, all about Kvitova. The pair met on all three surfaces in 2011, first on clay in the Madrid finals, then the Wimbledon semis and again playing on hard court for the year-end championship. And though the matches were close, they all went in favor of the upstart -- Vika was the on-paper favorite everywhere but Istanbul. Now ranked #2 and #3 in the world, either could take over the top spot after the Australian Open, and if they keep up their level of play, we could see the two of them battling for a bunch more titles in the years to come.



Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic

These two were no strangers before 2011 -- but in twenty-three previous meetings, the Spaniard held a large and intimidating 16-7 advantage. He'd won all their battles at Majors and every time a title was on the line. He'd lost just a handful of sets on clay, never more than one a match. When the year began, he'd spent more than eighty weeks as the #1 player in the world and had just managed to capture the career Grand Slam. He was sitting on top of the world, with Djokovic right below him.

Then everything changed.

They first met in the Indian Wells final, where Rafa took the early lead but eventually Nole rebounded to take the crown. A few weeks later in Miami we saw a similar story, though this time the Serb was pushed to a tiebreak in the third set before earning the win. We all figured things would revert once we hit the dirt, but Nole stunned the clay-court King in Madrid and again in Rome, where pundits assured us conditions favored Rafa. Then Djokovic really turned up the heat, taking his game to the Majors and decisively handing losses to the defending champion at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.



It seems only right that Rafa and Nole just met in championship rounds this year. They end the year as the top-ranked men in the sport and they spent the entire year proving it. It's certainly not the way we expected things to play out over the last twelve months, but if they stay in shape, things could get really interesting in the ones that follow.

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As we get ready to start a new season, it'll be interesting to see whether these same rivalries will continue in 2012 -- and whether the results will remain the same. Some of these players are clearly carrying the momentum now, but things can change at the drop of a hat. And whoever is going to keep the advantage is going to have to bring it.

Fed Cup Final: A Turning Point?

This weekend plays host to what could be a very interesting Fed Cup championship -- both squads, with plenty of power and lots of talent, have a real shot at winning the trophy, and though the tide may have shifted ever so slightly, it's too early to count anyone out.

It would seem history favors one side -- Russia won four Fed Cup titles in the last decade, while the Czechs haven't hoisted the trophy since becoming an independent country. The Russians made it here with a one-sided drubbing of the defending champion Italians back in April, and the Czechs advanced by the skin of their teeth over Belgium, securing the win only with a gutsy doubles victory.

But the team is playing without some of its brightest stars -- still-hobbled Maria Sharapova was left off the roster, while world #7 Vera Zvonareva was forced to pull out due to a shoulder injury sustained at the Kremlin Cup. Strangely the next highest-ranked player on their list, #15 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, was relegated to the doubles rubber, leaving Maria Kirilenko -- incidentally a runner-up in doubles at the Australian Open this year -- and veteran Svetlana Kuznetsova to hold up the fort in the early rounds.

In the meantime, the easy-to-overlook Czechs have momentum on their side in a big way. Wimbledon and Istanbul champ Petra Kvitova has dominated the Tour recently, winning her last two tournaments and climbing to #2 in the world. And the doubles pairing of Lucie Hradecka (#15 in the discipline) and Kveta Peschke (#2) will be hard to beat -- if the match goes to a deciding rubber, the advantage should be with the first-time finalists.

But, as always, it won't be quite as easy as that.

Kvitova can have periods of spotty play -- she lost in three straight first rounds after her title in Paris and only won two matches during the summer hardcourt season. She's also lost her only two matches against Kirilenko, admittedly back in 2009, and never faced Kuznetsova. MaKiri, on the other hand, is having a nice fall -- she twice beat her U.S. Open vanquisher Sam Stosur and made at least the quarters of the three events she's played out. And Zvonareva's replacement, Elena Vesnina, has three doubles titles this year herself -- and a runner's-up trophy from Roland Garros. Of course, Lucie Safarova could become a secret weapon on the Czech side, while the roller coaster of Kuznetsova could do the opposite for the Russians.

It would mean a lot for the Czechs to take the title. The growing and developing squad would get a real boost if they can pull off the upset of the long-dominant Russia. But it clearly won't be an easy task -- the Russians will be hungry to return to the winners' podium and could bring the firepower to do it. One thing's certain though -- whoever comes out on top will have earned it.