Momentum Lost

With a day or so of play in the books at the U.S. Open, we haven't seen a ton of big upsets yet, but that doesn't mean the action in New York has been completely devoid of surprises. Favorites like Simona Halep were pushed to three sets on Day One, upstarts like Nick Kyrgios notched huge wins over long-standing veterans, and former champions like Venus Williams were forced to brave the wilderness, swatting at bees as well as balls. But not everyone made it through early round play -- and a couple who'd been strong all summer suffered a bit of a set back just as they seemed to have been peaking.

Magdalena Rybarikova has had some of her best results on the American hardcourts, trouncing higher-ranked opponents in DC to win the title two years running, and stunning Simona Halep just last week on her way to the New Haven final. But while she was able to push former world #1 Caroline Wozniacki to a third set, she ultimately retired down a break in the decider. The on-paper underdog may not have been projected to go very far, but she certainly had the ability to shake up the draw a bit. Instead it's the 2009 runner-up who'll face qualifier Aliaksandra Sasnovich for a spot in the third round. And while Caro has certainly upped her game after a disappointing spring season, she must be relieved to have survived the challenge. And hopefully she'll be able to absorb the momentum that the Slovakian lost.

Garbiñe Muguruza has been a little more consistent this year -- since picking up her maiden trophy in Hobart, she reached the fourth round of the Australian Open, pulled off the upset of the tournament on her way to the Roland Garros quarters and made the Sweet Sixteen in both Stanford and New Haven. Her five top-twenty wins on the season have helped her rise to a career-high #26 ranking and earned her a second straight seeding at a Major. She opened against thirty-two year old Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, ranked outside the top hundred, a veteran who made the Wimbledon semis way back in 1999 and was able to capitalize on that experience Monday. In about an hour and a half Lucic had recorded the win, setting up a second round with fellow vet Shahar Peer, a woman she beat in their only previous match just last year. Actually the favorite this time, the Croat could parlay her first upset into her deepest run in New York yet.

Unfortunately for 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, hopes of recapturing past glory were stopped short. The two-time Major winner ended a four-year title drought in DC earlier this month, and pulled off wins over higher-ranked Genie Bouchard and Ekaterina Makarova this summer. She was one of my dark horse picks to at least the second week at this event, but she had the bad luck to run into a hungry Marina Erakovic earlier today. Sveta jumped to an early lead, but was pushed quickly to a third set by the world #82 -- the New Zealander climbed back from a break down in the decider too, ultimately forcing and winning a tiebreak. It was Erakovic's first win at the U.S. Open and sets up a meeting with another Russian, Elena Vesnina in the next round. And with a 2-2 record against last year's Eastbourne champion, she's got more than a good shot at scoring a few more.

It wasn't just the ladies who came under pressure in early rounds. I was sure Vasek Pospisil had broken his weak streak when made the finals in DC, winning battles against the likes of Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet. He couldn't defend points he'd earned last year in Montreal, but took Roger Federer to three sets in Cincinnati and seemed ready to make a break back into the top rankings. But Italy's Simone Bolelli had other plans. After a heart-breaking five-set loss in the Wimbledon third round, the world #85 was not about to go down without a fight -- he lost the first set and squandered the lead he built when he won the next two. But ultimately Bolelli finished swinging -- he converted the only break opportunity in the fifth, winning his only match at Flushing Meadows since 2007. He'll now take on sixteenth seed Tommy Robredo, a more difficult test to be sure, but a man he's beaten in their last two meetings. If he's recovered in time, there's no reason he can't keep that run going.

Yen-Hsun "Rendy" Lu, on the other hand, wasn't able to maintain his own momentum. After taking out Tomas Berdych in Cincinnati and making a solid run to the semis in Winston-Salem last week, the man from Taipei climbed to #34 in the world, his highest ranking in almost four years. It wasn't enough for a seed at the U.S. Open, but he nevertheless presented a threat to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, ranked just ahead of him, who'd gone on a five-match losing streak in July and August. But in the pair's first meeting since 2009, the Spaniard had the upper hand from the start -- he broke Lu six times during the match, won more than eighty percent of his first serves, and out-aced his opponent 10-3. In what should have been a much closer battle, GGL secured the win in three easy sets, sending Rendy home in the first round of a Major for the twenty-second time and setting up a second round with another summer stand-out, Sam Querrey. He should be the favorite here, too, but Querrey's won every one of their last three meetings, most recently just last week in North Carolina, and he's not going to let the twenty-eighth seed rest too long on his laurels.

Lukas Rosol was certainly not allowed much of a chance to rest on his. The twenty-nine year old, best known for his then-shocking defeat of Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon in 2012, was having a pretty good season this year too. He notched three top-thirty wins on his way to the Stuttgart final, and beat Tommy Robredo a week later in Hamburg. Last week at the Winston-Salem Open, helped largely by the retirement of Ryan Harrison and a withdrawal by John Isner, he worked his way to the championship match, claiming his second career title with a three-set victory over big-serving Jerzy Janowicz in the final. He lasted three sets today, too, but this time was on the wrong end of them -- against teenage qualifier Borna Coric, last year's Boys' champion in New York, he watched twenty aces sail past him, was broken five times and was sent packing after less than two hours on court. The #204-ranked Coric will now face thirty-four year old Victor Estrella Burgos -- literally twice his age -- who won his first match at a Major earlier today. The Croat will surely be the underdog, but the way the kids are playing these days, I wouldn't put anything past him.

Of course, it wasn't all bad news for the summer's strongest players -- former champion Sam Stosur, fresh off a win over Genie Bouchard on her way to the New Haven semis, easily passed what could have been a difficult test from Lauren Davis, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may have been on the losing end of one of the best shots of the Open so far, but ultimately got the win over Juan Monaco without breaking much of a sweat. Still, early exits for some of the most successful stars of the season might just open the doors for both their vanquishers and those looking for a turn around.

And whoever grabs the opportunity first could ride a new wave of momentum farther than they ever expected.

Keep It Up

It's no surprise that tennis schedules can be grueling -- and unless you're part of the super-elite class of players, we often see athletes put up a big performance one week and then, whether because of physical fatigue or emotional letdown, fizzle out immediately after.

But something seems a little different on the courts this week, and many players who had breakthroughs just days ago -- not the ones we're used to succeeding one tournament after another -- have kept their momentum going. And while they might not walk away with the trophies this weekend, their recent consistency tells me there's a lot more to come from each of them.

Young American Grace Min has spent most of her time on the ITF circuit and only won her first Tour-level match last year. She hadn't done much this season, but last week easily ousted Karolina Pliskova in Bad Gastein and even took a set off eventual champion Andrea Petkovic in her first WTA semifinal match. This week in Bastad, she scored an even bigger win in her opener, ousting second seeded Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in barley over an hour. Her run didn't last much longer, unfortunately -- she lost today to Alexandra Panova in straight sets -- but she is at a career high ranking of #114 in the world. And with this win over a top twenty-five player, it looks like she's poised to rise even higher.

Sixteen-year-old Ana Konjuh wasn't in action last week, but isn't much further removed from her surprising run to the Wimbledon third round. Ranked barely inside the top two-hundred before, the former top-ranked Junior battled through qualifying rounds and then dismissed one-time world #12 Yanina Wickmayer to notch her second straight win at the All England Club. This week in Istanbul, where she was also a qualifier, she came back after losing the first set to Magdalena Rybarikova and followed up with a win today over Japan's Misaki Doi. She'll face fellow teenager Elina Svitolina for a spot in the semis, but win or lose it looks like the young Croat is destined for even bigger wins.

Roberta Vinci, on the other hand, has seemed a little past her prime this year. Part of the world's best doubles team -- she and partner Sara Errani completed their own Grand Slam with a trophy at Wimbledon -- she was just outside the top ten in singles a year ago, but she went 0-6 to start the year and didn't get to the third round of any event until May. She's held onto a top thirty ranking, but even as the second seed last week in Bucharest I was surprised to see her make a run to the final -- she lost in straights to 2014 standout Simona Halep. She joined Konjuh -- incidentally, her first loss of the year in Auckland -- in Istanbul this week and will meet qualifier Alexandra Dulgheru later today. But now that she's got the monkey off her back, she stands a much better shot of living up to expectations than she did just a few weeks ago.

Like Vinci Lukas Rosol has been around the block a few times and even picked up a title last year in Bucharest. He made it back to the final this year, but his single biggest win, of course, came on the grass of the All England Club two years ago. Still he's been a fixture in the top fifty for most of the last sixteen months and beat three higher ranked players on his way to the Stuttgart final last week. He ultimately lost in three sets to another of the season's breakthroughs, Roberto Bautista Agut, but he's rebouned well this week in Hamburg. Still unseeded at the bet-at-home Open, he's already caused two upsets during his campaign, ousting world #20 Tommy Robredo in straight sets today. He wouldn't have to face anyone ranked higher than that until at least the final, so there's no reason we can't see more from the Czech upstart.

A little more surprising has been the sudden rise of veteran Samuel Groth, who played his first Futures matches way back in 2005. He'd won a handful of Futures event during his career and one Challengers' title, but never cracked the top hundred until this week. That's thanks to a semifinal run in Newport, where he dethroned defending champion Nicolas Mahut on the way. This week he survived his Bogota opener against Juan Sebastian Cabal by the skin of his teeth, needing two tiebreaks and over two hours to get the win, so he's going to be stretched in his second round versus top seed Richard Gasquet. But the twenty-six year old Australian has more momentum than he's had before in his career and might just be ready to make a break for it.

These players are all at different parts of their careers, but by following up one successful week -- not just one successful match -- with another seems to show none of them are going anywhere anytime soon. And with the big summer hardcourt season just around the corner, there's no telling how much further their recently momentum can carry them.

All Seems Right With the World...

Last year at Wimbledon five of the top ten men's seeds and six of the top women did not make it out of the second round.

That's kind of a lot.

We still have more than a day left to see whether we mark the same numbers so quickly this year, but while the first couple rounds of the French Open certainly suggest even the most decorated players are vulnerable at the Majors, so far the favorites have been performing up to expectations, with Jelena Jankovic the only casualty in the top ten.

But that doesn't mean they're out of the woods yet -- plenty of unseeded players have already shown what they can do at the All England Club, and they might just keep their streaks running.

Kaia Kanepi is traditionally a strong player on grass, but the two-time quarterfinalist, plagued again by injury, has dropped a bit down the rankings the last few months. Still her straight-set, barely one-hour victory over Jankovic on Tuesday reminds us she can't be counted out. She'll have a tough road forward, though, facing fellow Cinderella Yaroslava Shvedova next and possibly Eastbourne champion Madison Keys next, but she has the talent to make a big run in spite of those challenges.

So does 2010 runner-up Vera Zvonareva, who missed all of last season and more with a shoulder injury and had only won one match in her return this year. But the Wimbledon wildcard held tough against hometown girl Tara Moore in their two-day first round, finally finishing her off 9-7 in the third. It was her first Major match win in two years and sets up a meeting with world #87 Donna Vekic, a threat on grass, yes, but one the former top-two player should be able to handle if she plays to her ability.

Michelle Larcher de Brito hasn't had quite the same success as these two, but the twenty-one year old Portuguese -- known more for her screeching grunts than her on-court performance these days -- managed a shocking defeat of Maria Sharapova last year at the All England Club, posting her second third round appearance at a Grand Slam. She's only pulled off one WTA-level match since then, though, and had to qualify for the main draw in London. But she's exceeded expectations so far, taking out two-time Major champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in her opener. She next faces wildcard Jarmila Gajdosova who she beat two years back in Stanford, the pair's only meeting, so she has a good shot at matching, if not beating, her previous best results here.

On the men's side, 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt proved he's still someone to be reckoned with -- playing his sixteenth consecutive Wimbledon, the veteran Australian is back in the top fifty and in January won his first title in almost four years in Brisbane. But seven of his trophies have come on the lawn, and after his three-hour win over Michael Przysiezny we were reminded of why. He'll next face last year's surprise semifinalist Jerzy Janowicz, who could still pose a threat despite a 10-14 record coming into this week. But the Pole was pushed the distance in his first round and that could create an opportunity for the on-paper underdog to cause a stir.

Sergiy Stakhovsky is out to prove he can do the same. The former world #31 is now barely ranked in double digits, but his shocking win over Roger Federer in last year's second round -- the seven-time champion's earliest Slam exit since 2003 -- showed us what the 2010 Den Bosch champ can do on the surface. This year he beat Vasek Pospisil and took Kevin Anderson to a third set tiebreak at Queen's Club, and earlier today he scored a drama-free win over world #10 Ernests Gulbis to get back into the third round. He's never progressed farther at a Major, but with 2013 quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco kicked out early, he won't meet another seed until at least the fourth round, and I like his chances to get there.

Another big Cinderella from year's past is looking to recapture former glory at the All England Club -- and he already has proof that he can do it. Lukas Rosol, he who started the whole trend of sending the favorites home early, took out recent world #24 Benoit Paire in his first round and set up a rematch against top-ranked Rafael Nadal tomorrow. Rafa did get revenge over the Czech a couple months ago in Doha, but his early exit in Halle reminds us this is not his best surface. Rosol is having a pretty good year, too -- he beat Stakhovsky on his way to a Challengers' title in Irving, Texas and took out Jarkko Nieminen and Gilles Simon in Bucharest. He's also now ranked just outside the top fifty, a far cry from the #100 position he held in 2012. And while Nadal, at least having surpassed his performance here last year, struggled against Martin Klizan in his opener and might have a little case of nerves against his nemesis.

We may not have had any truly big fireworks yet this year, but the favorites shouldn't get too complacent. After all we should be well aware of how many surprises occur at the Slams, and any of these guys or gals has the ability to cause them. Whether they realize their potential or not remains to be seen, of course, but there may be no better place than on the grand courts of the All England Club to do just that.

Time to Step Up

The clay court season got underway in earnest this week, and while many of the sport's top stars are taking to the courts of Barcelona and Stuttgart, it might be the action at some lower-profile events that warrants some real attention. The fields might seem a little less intimidating, but that only increases the pressure on the favorites to perform -- and opens the door for the underdogs to really show us what they've got.

World #30 Daniela Hantuchova takes the top seed in Marrakech, and was tested from the start. She dropped her opening set to little-known qualifier Renata Voracova before rallying to win her next two matches. The one-time top-five player has never won a title on the dirt, though, so she might still be a long-shot for this one. Instead watch out for Garbine Muguruza, the young Spaniard who stormed through qualifying rounds in Hobart to win her first career title and then rode that momentum to the fourth round in Melbourne. She lost three first rounds in a row, though, before coming to Morocco, and should be looking to turn her luck back around. Next up she'll face fellow comeback kid, Shahar Peer -- the veteran was a stone's throw from the top ten not that long ago, but has since fallen all the way to #92. Her only title since 2009 came at a 125K-level event last year in China, and she's barely won more than two matches at any event in quite some time. Peer hasn't had to face a seed here yet -- her last opponent took care of rising star Elina Svitolina for her -- but if she sinks her teeth in early should could prove to be a real spoiler in this draw.

Over in Bucharest all eyes are on Grigor Dimitrov, who won his second career title in Acapulco a few months back and subsequently climbed to a high ranking of #14 in the world. He was pushed by another young upstart, Jiri Vesely, in Wednesday's second round, but should have an easier time against his next opponent, a battle-worn Sergiy Stakhovsky, who's gone three sets in his last two matches. Still, Dimitrov's had most of his success on other surfaces -- he won Juniors titles at Wimbledon and New York and has only gone as far as the third round in Roland Garros -- so there's plenty of room for underdogs here too. Famed giant-slayer Lukas Rosol won his only title here last year, and though he's not seeded here he did manage an upset over Jarkko Nieminen to make the quarterfinals. And Robin Haase, who'd only won three matches all year before heading to Romania, today pulled off the upset of the event so far, taking out world #15 Mikhail Youzhny in straight sets. He won't face another seed until at least the semis, so the Dutchman could really make a legitimate play for this title. And after the season he's had, there might not be a better time.

The favorites, of course, have plenty of potential to deliver on their status this week, but with the fields so wide open in both Marrakech and Bucharest, it really does seem to be anybody's game. And for whoever is able to rise to the challenge -- or seize the opportunity -- it could be a big step for the rest of their season.

Back From the Brink

It sure came down to the wire this weekend at Davis Cup, with three of the four quarterfinal ties undecided until the last minute. It took some clutch performances when it counted most and featured some big upsets from unlikely stars, and in the end we're left with a talented group of teams that could very well make history.

It wasn't all edge-of-your-seat drama, of course. The two-time defending champion Czechs were the first to clinch their spot in the semis against an upstart Japanese team. Even without their star Tomas Berdych, a wily team helmed by -- go figure -- Lukas Rosol and veteran Radek Stepanek put together a 2-0 lead going into the weekend, and the two paired in the doubles rubber to give the Czechs an insurmountable lead. Rising star Jiri Vesely's win Sunday wasn't necessary, but sealing the victory with a 5-0 sure put an exclamation point on the dominating performance -- when the whole team shows up in the next tie, it'll be hard to beat them.

The French had a little tougher task after their Day One. Against an underdog German team -- they're top four players were missing this weekend -- Julien Benneteau dropped his opener to world #96 Tobias Kamke and headliner Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was pushed in a long fifth set, ultimately losing to Peter Gojowczyk, who hadn't won a match since his stellar run in January. It was their doubles team that finally turned the tide in their favor -- Benneteau and Michael Llodra finally got the French on the board Saturday and Tsonga rallied Sunday to even the score with a win over Kamke. And in the final match for the weekend, Gael Monfils took the court against Gojowcyzk, built himself an early lead and never looked back. The French face off against the Czechs next -- their head-to-head record stands dead even at 7-7 -- so they'll need to up their game. But they've certainly shown they can never be counted out, and in a setting like Davis Cup, there's no reason they can't keep their streak going.

The Italians had slightly more breathing room going into the weekend, but not much. While recently strong Fabio Fognini scored the tie's first point against Britain's James Ward, formerly formidable Andreas Seppi wasn't able to keep the momentum going against two-time Grand Slam titleist Andy Murray. The Brits took the lead on Saturday too, with Murray teaming with doubles specialist Colin Flemings to grab a 2-1 lead in the tie. With Murray taking the court again against Fognini in the first reverse singles match, it seemed likely the Italians would be sent packing -- the pair had split their previous two meetings, but the last came almost five years ago, and while Andy had slipped slightly to #8 in the world, he was still the clear favorite. But Murray wasn't at his best on Sunday and Fognini scored the upset in straight sets. And Seppi regrouped for his final rubber, closing out Ward and sending Italy to the semis for the first time in over fifteen years.

Also reaching new ground this weekend -- somewhat surprising considering the individual success of their top star over the past decade -- were the Swiss, who reached their first semi since 2003, but not in the way you'd expect. Stanislas Wawrinka, the breakout star of this season, may have supplanted long-time top-five fixtures like Andy Murray and David Ferrer as the Next Big Thing with his 11-0 start to the year, but he hadn't reached even a quarterfinal since and he opened his campaign against the Kazakhs with a four-set loss to world #64 Andrey Golubev. Stalwart Roger Federer sent the Swiss into the weekend even, but they got behind again when Golubev teamed with even lesser-known Aleksandr Nedovyesov to take the doubles rubber. Like with the Italians, it all came down to Wawrinka in the first reverse singles match Sunday, and this time the favorite made it count. After losing the first set in a tiebreak to Mikhail Kukushkin, Stan pulled himself together and closed out the match. Roger did his part too, downing Golubev in straight sets and keeping the Swiss hopes for their first ever Davis Cup still alive. They get homecourt advantage against Italy too, and if they continue to play to their ability, they could just ride their streak all the way to the end.

The excitement and drama around Davis Cup is only going to intensify from here, but this weekend's winners sure proved they can deliver when times are toughest. There's still a lot of ball left to be played, of course, but it sure looks like we could be in for something completely different this year. And I can think of no better way to stir things up.

Spoiler Alert

With just about a month left until the French Open, now's the time for players to really dig in and make a push for this year's grandest clay court title. And while many of the sport's biggest stars concentrating their efforts this week and some higher profile tournaments, some lesser known names have been quietly pulling off some mighty big wins elsewhere on the dirt.

A handful of top-twenty players made their way over to Bucharest, with world #10 Janko Tipsarevic leading the pack. Upsets rocked the draw from the start, though -- Germany's Daniel Brands, a surprise semifinalist in Doha, was up a set and a break when wildcard Gael Monfils retired, and one-time top-tenner Mikhail Youzhny dropped at the hands of Victor Hanescu in his opener. But a couple others had even better success.

Last year's giant killer Lukas Rosol hasn't had many high-profile wins since, but some time on the Challenger's circuit and two big wins for the Czechs during Davis Cup action has helped him crack the top fifty this year. Momentum is on his side in Romania too -- he took out third-seeded Andreas Seppi in the second round, and a win today over Viktor Troicki gave him entry into his first ever ATP semifinal. He'll be rewarded with a battle against the highest seed left, Gilles Simon, which will be no easy task, to be sure. But if he can pull it off he might have set himself up for some real successes the rest of the year.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has had a little more success over the years -- he beat Andy Murray last year at Indian Wells and has a couple Tour titles to his name -- but it's been a while since he's done anything too noteworthy. Before Bucharest he'd only won two main draw matches this year and, since peaking at #23 in the world about two years ago, he's since fallen to near triple-digit rankings. But this week the Spaniard seems to have found his game again -- he took out Horacio Zeballos, the most surprising man to beat Rafael Nadal this year and backed it up with a come-from-behind win today over Tipsarevic. He'll meet Florian Mayer next -- a man who's also been struggling to recapture recent glory -- so there's no reason he can't make a real play for title #3 here.

There's plenty of opportunity for the ladies to deliver similar results in Marrakech too. Top seeded Dominika Cibulkova pulled out after a long Fed Cup weekend and second seed Sorana Cirstea, largely pulling her career back in line after a breakout 2009 season, lost her opener in two quick sets. And that's allowed more than a few underdogs -- a couple of them veterans -- to pull through this week.

Chanelle Scheepers won her first and only title two years back in Guangzhou at the ripe "old" age of twenty-seven, but an unimpressive performance in 2012 send her out of the top fifty to end the year. She'd only won three Tour-level matches this year and most recently lost in the quarters of an ITF event in Pelham. The South African may have turned things around this week, though -- she dominated Cirstea in their opener and was similarly strong against rising French star Kristina Mladenovic earlier today. Her win set her up for a semifinal showdown against one-time Roland Garros champion Francesca Schiavone -- certainly no pushover, of course, but a big fight now could make everyone else sit up and take notice the rest of the season.

Thirty-two year old Lourdes Dominguez Lino has won two titles in her career, both in Bogotá, five years apart. She, not surprisingly, is something of a clay court specialist though, and lost every match she played this season before hitting the dirt. But she's finally hitting her stride in Morocco -- after defeating lucky seed Tsvetana Pironkova she took out defending champion Kiki Bertens in three tight sets. It'll be the Spaniard's first Tour semi in over two years, and maybe her best chance in a while to take home a title.

Her opponent on Saturday will be rising star Mandy Minella of Luxembourg, who first started grabbing headlines at the 2010 U.S. Open. She's won just a handful of main draw matches this year and has been hanging out just in the top hundred for a while. But a win over still-recovering Kaia Kanepi in the Marrakech second round was followed by a solid three-set win over Silvia Soler-Espinosa on Friday. She's lost the only match she's played against LDL, back in Bogotá 2011, and hasn't had too much of a challenge yet this week -- she'll have to raise her game even further if she wants to reach that elusive first career final.

All these guys and girls have put up some big wins over the past week, and while there's plenty of work left to do before taking home a title, their performances should show they're capable of doing some damage. This is the time of year, after all, when not even the biggest or most consistent stars are safe -- and any of these athletes could prove themselves to be the big spoiler this spring.

Unusual Suspects: Davis Cup Quarterfinal Preview

There are going to be a couple unfamiliar flags flying this weekend as the eight countries left in the hunt for the 2013 Davis Cup crown contest the quarterfinals. And while there will certainly be plenty of star power in the field, there are enough wildcards out there that there's really no telling who'll be left standing on Sunday night.

Canada vs. Italy

The Canadians are playing in their first ever World Group quarterfinal, but despite their relative inexperience they could be the spoilers in this tie. World #16 Milos Raonic will be the highest-ranked player on the courts this weekend and comes to Vancouver with a 11-4 record on the year, including a title in San Jose. He's never met either of Italy's likely singles players, though, and with just five top twenty opponents so far this season he hasn't really been tested yet. And while he is by far the best on-paper singles player on the Canadian squad, the team could eventually find its leadership in veteran doubles star Daniel Nestor, holder of eighty crowns in his twenty-plus year career. The forty year old could very well help clinch the win for his countrymen if Raonic is able to take care of his job on his own.

The Italians can't be fully discounted though. All four of their representatives are ranked in the top eighty in singles and they've each pulled off a few upsets in their time. Andreas Seppi, sitting at his highest ever ranking more than a decade since going pro, has won two titles in the past twelve months and famously took the first two sets off Novak Djokovic at last year's French Open. Fabio Fognini, who did his best to end Andy Roddick's career in New York, made his way to the finals in St. Petersburg last fall and the semis in Acapulco in February. The disadvantage the team has, though, is that most of their success has come on clay -- all ten of Paolo Lorenzi's Challengers titles and seventy-five percent of Simone Bolelli's have been on the dirt. If the 1976 champions can't make a quick adjustment to the hardcourt, they might be sent home much sooner than they expected.

U.S. vs. Serbia

Somewhat surprisingly the U.S. is sporting the better recent Davis Cup record than the 2010 champs. After shocking wins over Switzerland and France, their magical 2012 performance ended at the hands of Spain in the semifinals. The Serbs, meanwhile, were summarily dismissed in the quarters to the eventual Czech titleists. Still it could be a tough task for the Americans to repeat last year's success. Former top-ten player John Isner has been nursing a knee injury most of the year, withdrawing from the Australian Open and falling in his Indian Wells opener, dropping points he'd accumulated by making the final last year. Sam Querrey is now the top player for the U.S., and with fourth round showings at both of the American Masters events and wins over the likes of Kei Nishikori, Fernando Verdasco and, stunningly, Novak Djokovic late last season, he certainly has earned that spot. If both players play to their potential, it would be a good sign for the U.S. -- if not, it could come down to the doubles tie here too with the record-breaking team of Mike and Bob Bryan needing to come through for their country again.

The Serbs will do their best to keep that from happening. World #1 Novak Djokovic returns after taking last year off from Davis Cup play, having already avenged recent losses to both Querrey and Isner. His twenty-two match win streak ended in the Indian Wells semis, though, and he failed to capture a third straight Miami trophy when he lost to Tommy Haas in the Sony Open fourth round. But with solid winning records against the Americans, he should be able to tie up his matches cleanly. The bigger question mark will be Viktor Troicki, #12 in the world less than two years ago but with just three Tour-level wins so far this year. He has winning records against both potential opponents, but hasn't met either since 2011. If he ends up losing both his rubbers, former doubles #1 Nenad Zimonjic might have to carry the burden against the Bryans. Ultimately this tie will probably come down to whether Isner has recovered enough to put up a fight against a mid-forties player or whether Troicki will be able to recapture the talent that sent his star soaring not so long ago.

France vs. Argentina

It's a bit of a shame that these two recent powerhouses are meeting so early this year -- runners-up in 2008, 2010 and 2011, both squads have what it takes to stir the pot at Davis Cup. France is led by world #8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who holds a solid 14-3 record in Davis Cup play. He won the title in Marseille in February, outlasting rival Tomas Berdych in the final, and only has a couple sub-fifty losses on his resumé this season -- but Tsonga's had some long matches too, having already played thirteen tiebreaks in 2013. We might actually see bigger things from Gilles Simon, just out of the top ten but steadily climbing the rankings over the last five months. The French #2 #3 has notched wins over Janko Tipsarevic and Juan Martin Del Potro and has made at least the quarters of five events this year. He may be relegated to second rubber status this weekend, but don't be surprised if he ends up becoming the star.

The Argentines meanwhile are missing their biggest weapon in Del Potro, who lost his opener in Miami after shocking both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic on his way to the Indian Wells final. Instead Juan Monaco, who last year climbed to #10 in the world, a full decade after going pro, will lead the team. He's struggled, though, winning just two matches so far, albeit both during Davis Cup play in February, and dropping nearly all the points he'd earned by making the Miami semis last year. With losing records against both Tsonga and Simon, it'll be difficult for him to deliver now. Carlos Berlocq, a semifinalist in Viña del Mar and a fourth rounder in Indian Wells, may be a better bet, but at #71 in the world he's no sure thing. I wouldn't be surprised if the South Americans subbed surprise Chilean champion Horacio Zeballos in for the singles action -- with a win over Rafael Nadal on clay this season, he may have shown the most spunk on this team and could surprise us all.

Kazakhstan vs. Czech Republic

In what's likely the strangest match-up this weekend, the little known Kazakhs take on the defending champion Czechs and carry with them home-court advantage and a surprising 1-0 record against their rivals. There's not a lot of star power on the squad, though -- no singles player is ranked in double digits -- and Mikhail Kukushkin, who made the fourth round in Melbourne last year hasn't won a main draw match yet this season. And Andrey Golubev, #205 in the world, has played mostly qualifying matches in 2013 -- he did cement the Kazakhs' win over Austria in the first round, though, and could be the spoiler this time around.

And that's because the Czechs may have opened the door for an upset -- world #6 Tomas Berdych is sitting out this tie and last year's clincher Radek Stepanek has been relegated to the middle Saturday doubles rubber. That's not to say things won't be shifted around, but as it stands, world #94 Jan Hajek -- just 2-5 this year -- and giant-killer Lukas Rosol will be opening up singles action. Again, Stepanek may very well be called in to pinch hit should the Czechs find themselves in a hole after Friday's action, but if the Kazakhs pounce early we could see a big surprise by one of the biggest underdogs in the field.

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With so much room for upsets and surprises, things could get really interesting this weekend. Plenty of players have an opportunity to prove themselves -- either that they're back in contention, or that they should be taken as seriously as the biggest stars in the sport. Whatever shakes out at the end of the day, though, could set a new stage in the world of tennis. And it sure looks like all these guys will be eager to capture the audience from the start.

One Hundred Years in the Making

Should it come as any surprise that the hundredth Davis Cup final would come down to the wire and be filled with more shocks than a fuzzy carpet in winter?

There was plenty of talent on both sides of the net, of course, but history stood squarely on the side of the Spaniards -- the five-time winners brought a deeper roster, higher-ranked players and an ATP Championship doubles team. All they had to do was hold their party lines and it would be smooth sailing. And when things kicked off, it looked like they'd do just that.

Veteran David Ferrer came out swinging in his opening rubber, downing Radek Stepanek in straight sets. Tomas Berdych had a tougher time sticking to his script, however -- Nicolas Almagro, a frequent nemesis of his in 2012, didn't relent in Friday's showdown and pushed the world #6 to five sets. Ultimately the higher-ranked player prevailed, though, and we went into doubles Saturday all tied up.

That's when the Czechs pulled the old switcheroo -- instead of featuring little known Ivo Minar and giant-killer Lukas Rosol, they re-teamed Stepanek, a member of the #2 doubles team in the world, with Berdych. The pair had delivered a crucial rubber for their country in the semifinals against Argentina back in September, and proved to be the dealmaker this time around as well. Against the London champion team of Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez, the Czechs got down a set early, but somehow rallied for the four-set win and established themselves as the unlikely leaders going into the final Sunday.

Things wouldn't be easy for the underdogs. Berdych, after two tough days on court, couldn't muster enough strength against Ferrer in the headlining match of championship weekend. The Spaniard was barely tested in the three sets and quickly avenged his loss to his opponent in last year's ATP championship.

So it would come down to the final rubber to decide this Davis Cup -- the sixth time that's happened since the turn of the century. But this was no ordinary tiebreak -- thirty-three year old Radek Stepanek, whose ranking is an even bigger number than his age, took on Nicolas Almagro, six years his junior and about twenty-five spots higher than him. The two had only met three times before, with the Spaniard winning their only match in over two years, at this year's U.S. Open. The odds were squarely in Almagro's favor -- Stepanek had lost more singles matches than he'd won this year, while Nico had added two more titles to his kitty. And after Friday's fight against Berdych, he showed just how much he was capable of.

But Stepanek was reinvigorated on Sunday. Two straight days of match play didn't seem to faze the veteran, and he stuck with his opponent through a fifty-six minute first set to get an early lead. Almagro got an early break in the second, but the Czech fought back to get even and dominated the breaker. He lost a step or two in the third, allowing the Spaniard to get on the board, but in the fourth set Stepanek took charge from the beginning and didn't allow a break chance. After nearly four hours of play that day he became the hero of the Czech team, closing out a victory even his higher-ranked compatriots were unable to do, and winning his country its first Davis Cup since independence.

The win does a little more than that for Czech tennis -- by winning the hundredth Davis Cup final contested, they've also marked the first time since 1990 that the same country has won both the Davis and Fed Cups and the first time in history anyone has swept both plus the Hopman Cup. Whether this end-of-year success will translate into a new era of dominance in the 2013 season of course remains to be seen. But with momentum shifting solidly from old powerhouses to these plucky upstarts, we really could see something in this sport we haven't ever seen before.

Leaders and Followers: Davis Cup Final Preview

You thought it was over, didn't you?

Well, the ATP season may have wrapped up on Monday, but we still have one more champion to crown on the courts. This weekend some powerhouse players will try to lead their countries to Davis Cup glory, but it might be their followers that seal the deal.

The Top Dogs

It's the second time the Czechs take on the Spaniards for the title, but leadership may have shifted a bit since 2009. Rafael Nadal is still in recovery and Fernando Verdasco has fallen a bit down the rankings. Still David Ferrer is no slouch and his performance since the U.S. Open has been more than noteworthy -- the world #5 is points away from passing Nadal in the rankings, and after title runs in Valencia and Paris, he's proven he's a part of the elite. He's got winning records against both his singles opponents and, maybe more impressively, a solid 21-4 record in Davis Cup play. If someone's going to lead this team to a sixth trophy, this is the guy to do it.

Still, Tomas Berdych may have something to say about that. The tall Czech comes off his third straight trip to London, having taken a set off Andy Murray and beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the year-end championship. He's back at his career high ranking and has notched seven wins over top ten players this year, perhaps most importantly against then-#1 Roger Federer in New York. He's got a lot of Davis Cup cred, too, winning all six matches he's played for his country this year. He's got a decent record against the Spaniards in singles, and has rebounded one-sidedly after a controversial win over Nicolas Almagro last January in Melbourne. He may not have had the success he's wanted at the Majors recently, but Berdych has been a fixture in the top ten for over two years now, and has the potential to be a spoiler this weekend.

Second in Line

The second singles players for both teams are hardly second tier names, but with their higher-profile colleagues taking the reins, it's understandable they'd fall under the radar. But they could easily turn things upside down this weekend. Nicolas Almagro has been quiet recently, but he's sticking near the top ten thanks, largely, to two clay court titles early in the season. He won his most recent match with Czech Radek Stepanek at the U.S. Open, and even bageled Berdych at Indian Wells back in March. Clearly most comfortable on clay, he still can strike a ball on the hardcourts, and with three top ten wins this season, he's capable of causing some upsets too. If he can go even one-for-two, Spain's going to be at a huge advantage.

But a win over world #37 Radek Stepanek is no sure thing. He might be ranked a ways down from his career high of #8 in the world, but he has scored five top-twenty victories in the last six months. The Czech even made the doubles semis at the ATP Championships in London, picked up an Australian Open trophy in the paired sport to kick off the year. And if he's traded off to the doubles rubber, I wouldn't be surprised to see giant-killer Lukas Rosol take his place -- while the twenty-seven year old hasn't repeated his Wimbledon success on Tour, he nevertheless picked up a Challenger title last week in Bratislava. And if inspired, he might pull off another shock on his home court.

The Doubles Rub

With so much possibility in the singles matches this weekend, the middle doubles rubber certainly becomes a little more interesting. I'm frankly a little surprised Stepanek wasn't included here, since he's risen to a #4 ranking in the discipline. And the Czechs are going to need all the help they can get with unlikely London champions Marc Lopez and Marcel Granollers on the other side of the court. The Spaniards teamed for three other titles and made an additional four finals. Cheered on by their absent compatriot, they're riding a wave of momentum that will be hard to stop, and the Czechs will be under pressure to deliver every step of the way.

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On paper the Spanish certainly look to be the favorites to repeat -- again -- but the Czechs have more than a fighting chance to unseat the defending champions. Spain certainly could clinch the whole thing by Saturday, but something tells me the lower ranked players will be more than crucial to the ultimate result. And with some serious country pride on the line, watch for all these guys to bring their A-games all weekend long.

The Days That Shook the Earth: Part II

It wouldn't be a Slam if the upsets didn't come early and often, but it sure seems like more favorites than usual are booking quick trips home*. Or maybe it's just that the magnitude of the upsets so far this week is so huge, it just feels that way. Whatever the case, the first couple days of action at Wimbledon have left us a lot to talk about. And this time it goes right to the top.

I guess I shouldn't be too surprised that Caroline Wozniacki didn't make it out of her first round match. Facing off against Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she wasn't exactly dealt an easy draw. But the women's bracket was affected much more deeply than that.

Na Li hasn't defended a lot of ranking points recently, and though she made a valiant effort to prove she's still relevant on clay, she didn't have the same luck on grass. After a solid first-round win over Ksenia Pervak, she ran into Sorana Cirstea, a fellow dirt specialist albeit one who might've proven herself a slightly better all-surface player. The young Romanian, who made her breakthrough a few years back in Paris, has been on the comeback trail all season and her win over the eleventh seed helped her match her best-ever performance at the All England Club. With a third round meeting against Maria Kirilenko, a woman she's beaten more times than she's lost to, she might just be able to last at least a few days longer.

Defending U.S. Open champion Sam Stosur had already improved on her first round exit from last year, but the three-time doubles finalist at the All England Club continues to struggle when she's by herself on these courts. After quickly dismissing Carla Suarez Navarro in her opener, the Netherlands' Arantxa Rus proved to be too much for the Aussie. The Dutchwoman, a winner over Kim Clijsters at last year's French, added one more top-ten player's pelt to her stash Wednesday. In a match fraught with service breaks, Rus was able to serve out the third set on her second attempt, earning herself a third-round date with eminently beatable Shaui Peng. For the twenty-one year old, putting together her best year at the Majors, it's a great opportunity to really make a run to the elite.

And while all these exits where shocking to an extent, they were nothing compared to what came next. Marion Bartoli has had some of her biggest successes on grass -- she made the final in 2007 and beat Serena Williams here last year. She may not have capitalized on a huge lead over eventual Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek last week, but as the ninth seed in London she nevertheless should have been a favorite to make the second week. But she might have fallen into a time warp earlier today when Mirjana Lucic, a semifinalist in 1999 and a qualifier this year, took her out in straight sets. The thirty-year old Croat has now pulled off two wins at a Major for the first time in over a decade, and though she will face a tough lawn-court player in Roberta Vinci next, she's proven she shouldn't be counted out just yet.

But of course the biggest shock was saved for the last match to finish Thursday. Two-time champion and three-time runner-up Rafael Nadal hasn't lost before a final here since 2005. Long thought of as a clay-court specialist, he's really been just as comfortable here. But his uneasiness was apparent today when he found himself down two sets to one to world #100 Lukas Rosol in his second round -- that after eking out the win in a long first-set tiebreak. He'd been in this position before -- he'd gotten down two rounds in a row in 2010 to Robin Haase and Phillipp Petzschner, but eventually won the crown that year -- but something was different this time. Just after Nadal evened the score around nine at night, refs paused play to close the fabled Centre Court roof and turn on the lights. When the match resumed momentum shifted back to the Czech and after a quick fifth set, it was the huge underdog left standing as winner. He'll meet a tricky Philipp Kohlschreiber next -- incidentally, the man who knocked Rafa out at Halle -- but it will certainly be an easier match than what he went through today. And for a man who's only won three matches total at a Slam, he may never have had such an opportunity.

So with all the craziness we've seen the last few days, I feel I have to add one thing to my list of things that have to happen at Wimbledon: someone -- if not everyone -- needs to follow through! We don't even have to look as far ahead as the next Slam, or even the next tournament. Just win one more match! Don't let all the effort put into these upsets exhaust every ounce energy for the next round! It'll clearly be easier for some of these players than others, but their performances so far show that each is capable of great things.

If they can keep the magic going just a few days more, it could change the landscape at the All England Club for a long time.

* Do I say that at some point in every Major?