Where Anything Can Happen

We should know by now there are very few certainties on the clay court -- other than, of course, that if you're facing Rafael Nadal on it, it's pretty inevitable you're going to lose. But everyone else is much more vulnerable, so it shouldn't be such a surprise that so many unlikely stars were able to make such big statements over the past week, as we kicked off the now slightly longer road to Roland Garros.

🇨🇴 QUEEN OF BOGOTA 🇨🇴

Teenage wildcard @CamiOsorioTenis wins her first-ever WTA title with a comeback victory on home soil!#CopaColsanitas pic.twitter.com/fyuIZkB5bB

— wta (@WTA) April 11, 2021

Copa Calsanitas, Bogotá, Colombia

I'll start in Bogotá, where the upsets came early and came often. Perhaps it shouldn't be that much of a shocker, as the only entrant in the top fifty was a recently surging Sara Sorribes Tormo, whose run in Miami came just a bit too late to give her the top seed here. But she lost her opening match to veteran Sara Errani, and the woman who did squeak into that #1 spot, Saisai Zhang, dropped one round later. Ultimately only one seed made it as far as the quarterfinals, and Tamara Zidansek, the 23-year-old from Slovenia ranked #93 in the world, was able to stay steady enough to make her second career final.

But in Sunday's match she ran into nineteen year old Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, a wildcard who'd played only a handful of tour-level main draws before this. But the former top-ranked Junior and 2019 U.S. Open Girls' champ was understandably at home on the courts of her native Colombia, scoring wins over seventh seed Tereza Martincova and veteran Stefanie Voegele. In the final, she dropped the first set to Zidansek, the first she'd lost all week, but then rallied back to stun her opponent in a nearly three hour match to claim the trophy. The win not only earned her some serious bragging rights, but may have put her on the radar as a potential spoiler as things really start heating up. After all, we know this is the part of the season when the young guns can really shine.

Volvo Car Open, Charleston, South Carolina

The stakes were a little higher in Charleston, where four Grand Slam champions were counted among the seeds, another elsewhere in the draw. But the favorites strunggled here too -- red hot Garbiñe Muguruza retired with a leg injury while up a bagel set to Yulia Putintseva in the third round, while Sofia Kenin lost her opener and Miami champ Ashleigh Barty was stunned by Paula Badosa in the quarters. And Petra Kvitova was ousted surprisingly easily by world #91 Danka Kovinic, who beat two more seeds on her way to the final.

There, though, she met world #38 Veronika Kudermetova, the fifteen seed who'd taken out that other Major winner -- a still-struggling Sloane Stephens -- in the quarters. It was the second championship match of her career -- she kicked off 2021 with a run to the title match in Abu Dhabi, beating Elina Svitolina before finally bowing to then unbeatable Aryna Sabalenka -- but she'd had a much easier road than her opponent, not facing another seed during her run. And she made good on her favored status in the final too, breaking her opponent four times on her way to the win. It was her first career trophy and might be enough to push her into seeding territory for the next Slam. And if she keeps her momentum going, it could really make some other sit up and take notice.

Sardegna Open, Cagliari, Italy

Things went a little more according to plan for the men last week, but that's not to say there weren't any surprises. In Cagliari, young Lorenzo Musetti stayed strong in a roller coaster of a match with top seeded Daniel Evans, saving four match points before getting the win in the second round. And world #49 Laslo Djere made a big play for his third clay court title, notching upsets over sixth seeded John Millman and fourth seed Nikoloz Basilashvili on his way to the final.

Meanwhile third seeded Lorenzo Sonego was plugging away in the bottom half of the draw. The 25-year-old Italian can be a little up and down in his play -- he lost his first five matches of last season and then scored one of the biggest upsets of the year with a win over Novak Djokovic in Vienna. In 2021 too, he lost his opener at the Murray River Open to world #265 Jason Kubler and couldn't seem to get much traction at events after that. That changed this week in Italy, though -- after staging a comeback against a very talented Yannick Hanfmann in the quarters, he got the better over second seed Taylor Fritz in the semis. He was tested again by Djere in the final, but he was able to stay strong and win his second career title. For added measure, he teamed up with compatriot Andrea Vavassori to also claim the doubles trophy. And if he can play as consistently as he did this week, he could cause a lot of trouble for the favorites when the stakes get raised.

Andalucia Open, Marbella, Spain

Of course not all top seeds were so unlucky this week. In Marbella, Pablo Carreño Busta, who'd been a little quiet this year after his phenomenal end to the 2020 season, was able to make good on his spot at the top and claim his fifth career title, his second on the dirt. Without having to face anyone in the top forty during his run, he was the clear favorite in the championship match. But that's not to say we didn't see some other surprises in Spain.

Seventeen-year-old phenom Carlos Alcaraz continued his ascent on tour, stunning veteran Feliciano Lopez in his second round and following up with a win over a quickly climbing Casper Ruud a match later. The wins earned him his first ATP semifinal and boosted him fifteen ranking spots to #118 in the world. And something tells me that number is only going higher from here. He did eventually lose to finalist Jaume Munar, though -- the fellow Spaniard, ranked just inside the top hundred, had opened his run with a solid win over an often spotty Fabio Fognini. And while he couldn't ultimately get the better of PCB in the championship match, the fact that he pushed the eventual champion to three sets might bode well for his future too.

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So with week one of the 2021 clay court season in the books, and the big events starting with the Rolex Masters around the corner, we're starting to see how things could shape up as we head to Paris. Can this week's winners make any real headway at the bigger events? Well, some have better chances than others. But with momentum on their side right now, it should be fun to see what they do with it.

Breakthroughs and Comebacks

It seems to be a common occurrence in the weeks right after a Major, where the pressure is a little off, that we see players who've been struggling with form come out swinging. And yesterday we saw a couple champions crowned after what seems like a long, long time out of the spotlight, and, in come cases, completely out of contention.

We've seen Bernard Tomic climb and fall in the rankings -- and in life -- for years, surging into the low twenties after a Cinderella run to the Wimbledon quarters four years ago, dropping well out of the top hundred at this time last year, and grabbing as many headlines for his off-court behavior as for his play. But despite all the distractions, the one-time Australian wünderkind came to Bogota to defend a title at near his highest career ranking. He wasn't without his challenges though -- the second seed dropped sets against little-known Adrian Menendez-Maceiras and triple-digit ranked Michael Berrer, and even was tested by underrated Adrian Mannarino in the final. The Frenchman, who'd avenged a loss to Newport champion Rajeev Ram in his opener and scored a huge win over big-serving Ivo Karlovic in the semis, was able to push Tomic to a third set, but ultimately succumbed. Tomic's win gives him his third career title but may have also proved he's an even bigger threat when he seems most down-and-out.

Sam Stosur had climbed even higher than her compatriot during her heyday, but the former Grand Slam champion has seemed well off her career best the last few months. She hadn't won more than three matches at any Major since 2012 and had spent most of this year ranked outside the top twenty. The thirty-one year old veteran had picked up a title in Strasbourg in May, but was pushed to a decider in her last three matches and didn't play a top-forty player during her campaign. On paper her draw in Bad Gastein may not have been much more intimidating, but she nevertheless did face off against some heavy-hitters -- she dropped just one game to recent star Klara Koukalova and ended Anna Schmiedlova's impressive run in the semis. In the final against Karin Knapp -- a woman who was playing her second double-header of the week, having taken out top seed Sara Errani earlier on Sunday -- she was arguably better rested, but nonetheless challenged again. The Italian won the first set and took the second to a tiebreak, but Stosur didn't give up -- she ploughed through the third set and come out the winner in the two and a half hour match. It earner her a eighth career title and pushed her back up to #21 in the world -- if she keeps it up on her favorite summer hard court season, the former U.S. Open titleist might just be able to make a case for another strong showing in New York.

Dominic Thiem is much earlier on in his career so doesn't have quite the same spoils to show for his efforts -- but the young Austrian is certainly coming into his own this year. He'd been a little quiet since breaking the title seal in Nice, winning just three matches between that and his trip to Umag last week, but the twenty-one year old was able to turn things around in Croatia. After winning his first two matches by retirement, he scored a solid comeback win against tournament favorite Gael Monfils, setting up a championship bout against barely unseeded Joao Sousa. The Portuguese workhorse had already taken out Andreas Seppi, Fabio Fognini and Roberto Bautista Agut on the way to his first final of the year and may have been a little spent by the time he met up against Thiem. The fourth seed powered through a tight first set, but then rolled over his opponent in the second for his third straight win over Sousa and his second crown of the year. Now at a career-high #24 in the world he may be in a position to really make a statement at the big events now -- and if he can put up the same kind of performances against the very top players, it won't be long before the more prestigious titles start coming too.

Elsewhere on Tour a couple players were trying to make their first big impressions on championship Sunday. Lesia Tsurenko had picked up a couple ITF titles during her career, but had never reached the final on the Big Girls' circuit. The twenty-six year old Ukrainian did make a great run to the Indian Wells quarterfinals with wins over Genie Bouchard and Andrea Petkovic to name a few, but only won three matches since then and was ranked outside the top seventy when she hit the courts in Istanbul. That didn't seem to phase her much, though -- after taking out a tough Daria Gavrilova in her opener, she trounced both Daniela Hantuchova and Kirsten Flipkens. Meanwhile Urszula Radwanska, well off her career best since dealing with a slew of injuries the last few seasons, was also going for her first title -- she'd made the final in Den Bosch three years ago -- and stood a pretty good shot at picking one up earlier in 2015 than her more decorated older sister. She'd taken out Jelena Jankovic to start and then powered past a strong Tsvetana Pironkova in the quarters. She put up a fight too on Sunday, but Tsurenko proved the more ready -- after a 7-5 first set, she ran away with the second, closing out the match in just over ninety minutes. The win rocketed her into the top fifty for the first time in her career may just make others sit up and take notice the next time she takes the court.

Up in Bastad a one-time top-thirty player was trying to prove he's still worth paying attention to. Benoit Paire had topped out at #24 in the world early last year but since dropping into the triple digits spent a lot of time this season on the Challengers' and Futures circuit. He did manage a win over Fabio Fognini at the French Open and over Mikhail Youzhny at Wimbledon, but he came to the Swedish Open an unseeded #62. Still, he impressively stopped David Goffin, who was coming off quite a successful Davis Cup showing over the weekend, and then took out an often overlooked Pablo Cuevas in the semis. His biggest test waited for him in the final, though, where veteran Tommy Robredo was seeking his third crown at this event. With a much lower ranking and having lost the pair's only previous meeting -- and, not unimportantly, playing his first career championship match -- Paire was a heavy underdog. But he didn't let that trouble him -- after eking out the opening set in a tight tiebreak, he scored the only break of the match in the second and clinched the first really big win of his career. Now back in the top fifty, he's still well off his best. But after seeing him finally power through a draw like he did last week, he might finally be able to push his way higher.

Around the World

The ladies of the WTA were in action, literally, all across the globe this weekend -- with Fed Cup semis and World Group rounds taking place from Montreal to Sochi, Italy to Japan, and a full tournament going down in Bogota, there were few parts of the world who didn't get in on the game. And things got interesting all over the place.

In the higher stakes Fed Cup action -- where teams were playing for a spot in November's final -- the Czechs were aiming for their fourth run to the championship in five years, and they were quick to prove their worth. Underappreciated Lucie Safarova, got her team off to a strong lead, beating France's Caroline Garcia in three sets, and stalwart Petra Kvitova, playing her first matches since February, gave them some breathing room with a win over always tricky Kristina Mladenovic. She followed up with another defeat of Garcia, giving the Czechs an insurmountable lead and securing their place as a real force in the women's game.

Things did not go so smoothly in Russia, though -- playing against a tough German team, the four-time champions got off to a quick start with both Svetlana Kuznetsova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova giving the home team an early edge. But Miami semifinalist Andrea Petkovic and a resurgent Angelique Kerber subbed in on Sunday to even the score and make the doubles rubber that much more important. But the Russians got momentum back on their side when it counted -- Pavs teamed up with defending U.S. Open doubles champ Elena Vesnina for a straight set win, sending their team back to the final. It'll be a rematch of the 2011 championship, and a chance for Russia to grab their first Fed Cup since 2008. And something tells me the way these two teams are playing, it's going to be a fight to the finish.

There was plenty of action in the consolation rounds this weekend, too, and a couple results that may surprise you. Italy, looking to get back into World Group action after losing to France in February, took on a tough U.S. team led, of course, by Serena Williams who hasn't lost a Tour-level match all year. Camila Giorgi put up a fight in the first set against the world #1 but ultimately fell short in the second. But Sara Errani, struggling a bit in recent months and back out of the top ten in her singles ranking, surprisingly trounced Lauren Davis, who was coming off a big win over Eugenie Bouchard a few weeks ago. The Italian even looked good against Serena in her reverse singles match, taking her first set off the multiple-Major champion since 2009. While the American did manage the win, Flavia Pennetta came out for the fourth rubber and leveled the score with an easy win over Christina McHale. She then paired with Errani in doubles, dropping just three games to Serena and Alison Riske, doling out Williams' first ever loss of any kind in Fed Cup. It's tough to tell whether that or the return to the top tier is more meaningful.

Things went down to the wire in Poland, too, but the big surprise there was not necessarily the result, but who was on court. Martina Hingis -- now both the youngest and oldest player to represent Switzerland -- took to the singles circuit for the first time since 2007 -- and though she lost both ties she played, one somewhat unexpectedly to Aga Radwanska, the other in a tight match against her sister Urszula, she may have given us a glimpse into what more we can expect from her this year. But the Hall of Famer was far from the only bright spot in this tie -- a surging Timea Bacsinszky rounded out the Swiss squad, beating both Radwanska sisters and scoring her third top-ten win of the year. She then teamed up with little-known Viktorija Golubic in doubles to close out the win, putting the Swiss back in World Group play for the first time since 2004.

And as exciting as the Fed Cup ties were this weekend, there was actual hardware being awarded in Colombia, and the ladies there really gave us something to talk about. Top seed Elina Svitolina looked on point in early goings, but ended up losing in straight sets in the semis, while Monica Puig, one of the standout youngsters from the 2014 season, fell a round earlier in the quarters. Both their vanquishers, though, made it all the way to Sunday's final -- now-world #56 Yaroslava Shvedova, reaching her first singles final since 2007 and triple-digit ranked Teliana Pereira, playing just her second WTA-level main draw of the year. But the Brazilian wasn't daunted by the task at hand -- having already defeated one-time French Open champ Francesca Schiavone in her opener, she went on to defeat Svitolina and then took out Shvedova, never dropping a set all week. The win, a milestone for the twenty-six year old workhorse, got her back into the top hundred, pushing her to a career high #81 in the world. It's still a long way off from the sport's elite, but might just serve notice to all those who face her this clay court season.

The Rebirth

I have to admit I was pretty impressed by the action we saw on the tennis courts last week.

Sure we still haven't hit the sweet spot of the summer hardcourt season and most of the sport's top athletes were not yet in action. But we saw more than a couple players carry success through from one week to the next, and a few players long missing from the winner's circle made triumphant returns to glory that could right their paths for the rest of the year.

Mona Barthel was one of the standouts of the 2012 season -- a qualifier in Hobart that year, she shocked four seeded players to claim her first career title and a year later she took out Marion Bartoli and Sara Errani in her trophy run at the Paris Indoors. She peaked at #23 in the world that March, but ended the season with four straight first round losses and fell out of the top eighty for most of this spring. It wasn't an easy road for her in Bastad either -- with all but one seed losing their opening matches, the young German upset just one favorite on her way to the final, but lost a set to qualifier Gabriela Dabrowski in her second round and had to come back from 2-4 down against Sylvia Soler-Espinosa in the semis. Against Chanelle Scheepers Sunday, another woman who'd been struggling before making the trip to Sweden, she was tested too, finding herself in a 3-5 hole in their second set. But Barthel was able to stay strong and ultimately closed out the match in straight sets, capturing her third career crown and reminding the field what she's capable of.

Bernard Tomic seems to have been missing from the spotlight a little longer. Once hailed as the Next Big Thing in the sport, he hadn't won more than two matches at any tournament since losing the Sydney final -- he'd won his only previous title there a year before -- and dropped out of the top hundred after a second round loss at Wimbledon, his lowest ranking in over three years. He was unseeded in Bogota, positioned behind little-known players like Alejandro Gonzalez and Victor Estrella Burgos, and just barely eked out a win over the latter in the semis, needing three tiebreaks and nearly three hours to score the win. He ran up against big-serving Ivo Karlovic on Sunday -- the Croat was playing his second final in as many weeks, and as the second seed was the on-paper favorite this time too -- but even without converting a break opportunity, Tomic was able to secure the win in tiebreaks. It was just his second career trophy, putting him a little behind expectations, but may have been just what the young Australian needed to kick him into gear.

Over in Istanbul another former champion -- albeit one who's got a little more hardware on her mantle -- took a huge step in putting herself back on the map. Caroline Wozniacki fell out of the top ten early this year and struggled with injury, etc., for most of the spring. She was somewhat redeemed by making the semis in Eastbourne and her fourth round showing at the All England Club, but she really proved she was back this past week at the reestablished Istanbul Cup. The top seed in Turkey, she opened with a double bagel against rising star Belinda Bencic, and though she dropped sets to early opponents, ultimately made her first final of the year with a straight set win over another of the year's standouts, Kristina Mladenovic. In the final against Roberta Vinci -- playing her second straight final despite her inauspiciousstart to the year -- she took control again, never dropping serve and taking five games off her challenger. It took just over an hour to win her twenty-second trophy, but after the year she's had, it sure seems like she put up an even bigger effort than that.

Things went down a little differently in Hamburg, where unseeded Leonardo Mayer was looking less for reawakening than for a first launch. The twenty-seven year old Argentine only made his first singles final in February and had spent most of the last five years in the low double-digit rankings. He did manage a win over world #16 Tommy Robredo in Viña Del Mar, but before last week -- even with a fourth round run at Wimbledon -- he was a whopping 0-16 against top ten players. He cracked that goose egg in Germany though -- after taking out tenth seed Guillermo Garcia Lopez, he battled past a couple young guns and earned the right to meet last year's French Open runner-up David Ferrer for the title. It didn't look like it would go his way at first -- the veteran Spaniard had ceded a total of three games in his quarter and semifinal matches and came back from breaks down to take the opening set on Sunday. But Mayer rebounded in grand style, finally scoring that elusive win over an elite player and taking home that all-important maiden trophy.

And while Mayer may have just broken the seal of tennis champions, he and the rest of this weekend's victors have all recaptured the feeling of being at the top of their game. And if they can keep it up there's no telling how much more success we'll see from them down the road.

Keep It Up

It's no surprise that tennis schedules can be grueling -- and unless you're part of the super-elite class of players, we often see athletes put up a big performance one week and then, whether because of physical fatigue or emotional letdown, fizzle out immediately after.

But something seems a little different on the courts this week, and many players who had breakthroughs just days ago -- not the ones we're used to succeeding one tournament after another -- have kept their momentum going. And while they might not walk away with the trophies this weekend, their recent consistency tells me there's a lot more to come from each of them.

Young American Grace Min has spent most of her time on the ITF circuit and only won her first Tour-level match last year. She hadn't done much this season, but last week easily ousted Karolina Pliskova in Bad Gastein and even took a set off eventual champion Andrea Petkovic in her first WTA semifinal match. This week in Bastad, she scored an even bigger win in her opener, ousting second seeded Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in barley over an hour. Her run didn't last much longer, unfortunately -- she lost today to Alexandra Panova in straight sets -- but she is at a career high ranking of #114 in the world. And with this win over a top twenty-five player, it looks like she's poised to rise even higher.

Sixteen-year-old Ana Konjuh wasn't in action last week, but isn't much further removed from her surprising run to the Wimbledon third round. Ranked barely inside the top two-hundred before, the former top-ranked Junior battled through qualifying rounds and then dismissed one-time world #12 Yanina Wickmayer to notch her second straight win at the All England Club. This week in Istanbul, where she was also a qualifier, she came back after losing the first set to Magdalena Rybarikova and followed up with a win today over Japan's Misaki Doi. She'll face fellow teenager Elina Svitolina for a spot in the semis, but win or lose it looks like the young Croat is destined for even bigger wins.

Roberta Vinci, on the other hand, has seemed a little past her prime this year. Part of the world's best doubles team -- she and partner Sara Errani completed their own Grand Slam with a trophy at Wimbledon -- she was just outside the top ten in singles a year ago, but she went 0-6 to start the year and didn't get to the third round of any event until May. She's held onto a top thirty ranking, but even as the second seed last week in Bucharest I was surprised to see her make a run to the final -- she lost in straights to 2014 standout Simona Halep. She joined Konjuh -- incidentally, her first loss of the year in Auckland -- in Istanbul this week and will meet qualifier Alexandra Dulgheru later today. But now that she's got the monkey off her back, she stands a much better shot of living up to expectations than she did just a few weeks ago.

Like Vinci Lukas Rosol has been around the block a few times and even picked up a title last year in Bucharest. He made it back to the final this year, but his single biggest win, of course, came on the grass of the All England Club two years ago. Still he's been a fixture in the top fifty for most of the last sixteen months and beat three higher ranked players on his way to the Stuttgart final last week. He ultimately lost in three sets to another of the season's breakthroughs, Roberto Bautista Agut, but he's rebouned well this week in Hamburg. Still unseeded at the bet-at-home Open, he's already caused two upsets during his campaign, ousting world #20 Tommy Robredo in straight sets today. He wouldn't have to face anyone ranked higher than that until at least the final, so there's no reason we can't see more from the Czech upstart.

A little more surprising has been the sudden rise of veteran Samuel Groth, who played his first Futures matches way back in 2005. He'd won a handful of Futures event during his career and one Challengers' title, but never cracked the top hundred until this week. That's thanks to a semifinal run in Newport, where he dethroned defending champion Nicolas Mahut on the way. This week he survived his Bogota opener against Juan Sebastian Cabal by the skin of his teeth, needing two tiebreaks and over two hours to get the win, so he's going to be stretched in his second round versus top seed Richard Gasquet. But the twenty-six year old Australian has more momentum than he's had before in his career and might just be ready to make a break for it.

These players are all at different parts of their careers, but by following up one successful week -- not just one successful match -- with another seems to show none of them are going anywhere anytime soon. And with the big summer hardcourt season just around the corner, there's no telling how much further their recently momentum can carry them.

Unlikely Heroes

During a weekend in which only one top seed made it to a final, we shouldn't be surprised that things didn't go entirely according to plan when deciding where the trophies went. In fact, just one of the four titles awarded Sunday went to the higher seed in the championship match, and even those players who didn't come away the winners put in performances that could launch them into a new level of play.

Alize Cornet may have been the favorite in the Katowice Open final, but certainly did some heavy lifting to get there. The French wildcard dropped a bagel set to the former Klara Zakopalova (née Koukalova) but scored a comeback in the quarters and, after losing the first six games to top-seeded Aga Radwanska in the semis, rallied for the upset to reach her second championship of the year. And while this time she made good on her favored status, the real story in Poland may have been that of Camila Giorgi. The young Italian had pulled off big wins in the past, most recently against Maria Sharapova in Indian Wells, but had yet to follow up one victory with another. This week, though, she took down Roberta Vinci -- inexplicably still ranked in the top twenty, despite having won just two matches this year -- veteran Shahar Peer, and always tricky Carla Suarez Navarro. In the final she was down a set and a break before forcing a decider, and even came back from a two-break deficit to even the score. She did lose eventually, in a three-plus hour long marathon battle, but having finally kept momentum going for longer than a day she may have proven she has some staying power.

Underdogs had a little more luck elsewhere this weekend. At the U.S. Men's Clay Court Championships in Houston, the two top players, John Isner and Tommy Robredo, both lost their openers, allowing numbers three and four to grind their way to the final. Nicolas Almagro, who'd only won one match in the last two months -- he'd skipped January's events with injury -- had a few relatively easy early rounds and got a walkover from Sam Querrey in the semis. Fourth-seeded Fernando Verdasco made it an all-Spanish final -- after a challenge from Steve Johnson in his opener, he rolled through his next two matches to make his first championship match since last July. He hadn't had much luck when playing for a title, though, losing in his last six attempts and going trophy-less for almost four years, and at #29 in the world with just five career crowns to Almagro's thirteen, he was the on-paper underdog in Sunday's championship. But Verdasco had the better record against his compatriot, 6-3 head-to-head, and capitalized on that history from the start -- taking advantage of weak serving from his opponent, he got the break in the first set and, after saving set points in the second, stayed stronger in the tiebreak to close out the win. While the size of the upset may not have been tremendous, the importance of the win -- the end of a long losing streak -- was much greater, and could bode well for the upcoming clay court season.

Things got a little more dramatic in Casablanca. Here, too, high seeds lost early -- Gael Monfils pulled out after his big Davis Cup weekend, while both Kevin Anderson, red-hot at the start of the season, and crowd favorite Benoit Paire, lost early. Ultimately fourth seed Marcel Granollers, a middle-of-the-road singles player who's been ranked in the twenties and thirties the last several years, and yet another Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia Lopez, well off his career high #23 in the world, were left contesting the final. Like with Verdasco, his last title came in 2010, but the thirty-year-old had beaten Monfils in Miami and had put together wins over the likes of Carlos Berlocq and Paire already this week. He also had history on his side, having won his only previous Tour meeting with Granollers at this event four years ago. But the younger finalist got the lead in this contest, taking the first set and fighting back from a break down in the second. But GGL stayed tougher here too, forcing a decider and then never looking back. It was just his third career championship -- and, again, his first in over three years -- and the win brings him back into the top forty for the first time since 2011. If he keeps the momentum over the next couple weeks, who knows what he could accomplish -- he might just be able to turn the big events upside down.

Speaking of rocking the boat, there may have been no bigger surprise this weekend than what we saw in Bogota. Former world #1 Jelena Jankovic made good on her top seeding at the Copa Claro and reached her first final since taking the title there last year without dropping a set. But with the three seeds below her all losing their openers -- and the other not fairing much better -- she didn't face anyone in the top seventy-five until Sunday. And even then she only faced off against world #74 Caroline Garcia, who'd only just made her first Tour semi a few weeks back in Acapulco. But the young Frenchwoman can play on clay -- remember a few years back when she so nearly took out Maria Sharapova in the Roland Garros second round -- and after forcing Serena Williams to a third set in Miami, she might just be improving her overall game too. In today's match she needed barely eighty minutes to dispatch Jankovic, her first ever win over a top ten player. The victory brings Garcia to within a stone's throw of the top fifty, and with several weeks of dirt events still to come, I would expect her climb even higher and maybe finally prove herself on the big stage.

Across the board this weekend's winners proved themselves up to the task against some formidable foes. And these long shots, able to perform at their best when it really counted, may have really turned a corner -- whether launching their careers or cementing a comeback, every one of them showed they're ones to watch.

And the next time they take the court, they might not be much of dark horse at all.

Deep Seeded Anxiety

After the rampant bracket busting we saw at Wimbledon this year, we can't really be surprised by the upsets that have come in the weeks that followed. In fact, only one favorite won a title this past weekend, while everyone else broke new ground on their way to the winners' circles. Their performances show just how deep the talent in the fields has become, and may make even the biggest stars a little nervous.

The only top seed to survive the week's action was, maybe not surprisingly, Serena Williams. Playing for the first time in Bastad, Sweden, the world #1 was able to redeem herself after a shockingly early exit at the All England Club -- though she didn't face a player in the top thirty, she did make her way to this title without dropping a set, defeating 2011 runner-up Johanna Larsson in under eighty minutes during Sunday's final. It was Williams' fifty-third career title, her seventh of the year, and should do a lot to erase the memory of a disappointing run in London as she preps for the hardcourt season. But we've seen so often this year that nothing is certain on these courts -- and all the other winners this weekend prove that not all top seeds are safe.

That was quite apparent in Bad Gastein, where world #33 Mona Barthel retired while down a set to Austrian wildcard Lisa-Marie Moser, and up-and-coming German teenager Annika Beck won just a game in her quarterfinal match. Karin Knapp, something of a Cinderella at Wimbledon a few weeks back, was the only seed to make the semis, and even she couldn't cut it against eventual champion Yvonne Meusburger. The twenty-nine year old veteran reached her second straight final, having lost last weekend to Simona Halep in Budapest. But this time against doubles specialist Andrea Hlavackova, playing in her first ever singles championship, the hometown girl had the advantage. After surviving a tight first set, Meusburger won her first career trophy, reached her highest career ranking and proved some things do get better with age.

That sentiment is also true for Ivo Karlovic, who'd been struggling to come back from injury almost a year before being struck by illness in April. The big-serving Croat came to Bogota ranked out of the top hundred-fifty and title-less for over five years, and at thirty-four seemed unlikely to change that. But he withstood some tough challenges in Colombia -- he played five tiebreaks on his way to the final, only dropping one set to second seed Kevin Anderson in the semis. Meanwhile twenty-nine year old Alejandro Falla, himself ranked in triple digits and coming off a win over world #14 Janko Tipsarevic in the quarters, was playing his first ever title match. But Karlovic proved too much for the relatively untested local -- in a quick two-set match which brought his ace total above a hundred for the tournament, nearly three hundred for the year, Dr. Ivo landed his first crown in half a decade and put him back on the radar for the rest of the field.

On the radar too, now, are the two finalists in Hamburg, each of whom pulled off some of the biggest wins of their careers to make the title match. Young Federico Delbonis had won a handful of Challenger events before heading to Germany, but had only spent a total of one week inside the top hundred -- he hit #98 in the world after winning in Barranquilla. But he began his campaign last week with a win over Tommy Robredo and followed up by defeating recently resurgent Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. His biggest triumph, though, was over a much bigger fish -- in the semis he took on four-time champ Roger Federer and, against all odds at the bet-at-home Open, came out the winner. Meanwhile Fabio Fognini, long an also-ran in this sport, took out hometown hero Tommy Haas before ousting clay court specialist Nicolas Almagro to make his second final of the year. And ultimately the Italian's experience won out -- after dropping the first set and saving three match points in a tiebreak, the twenty-six year wrapped up the tightest final of the weekend, extending his win streak to ten matches and two titles since Wimbledon. Suddenly a top-twenty player, he's proven that even underdogs have a little bite to them.

Whether this weekend's results show that the favorites have lost a bit of their sparkle or that the longshots have upped the ante remains to be seen. Certainly a loss this week doesn't mean a career is over -- nor that momentum will last in the months that come. But with even the most unheard-of players proving they can hit with the big guys, it sure will be fun watching them all fight it out.

The Opportunists

It's that time of the year when players begin making their move to the clay courts. And, as usual with some of these smaller events before the season really gets underway, some lesser known players will have their chance to make their marks.

At the Brazil Open, relocated this year to Sao Paulo after eleven years in Costa do Sauipe, there's no shortage of big names in the draw -- Nicolas Almagro and Juan Carlos Ferrero, fixtures during the Golden Swing year after year, both look to return to the winner's podium this year. But they'll be joined by a few others a little more under the radar.

Albert Ramos is just barely seeded here, but at #64 in the world he's at his best-ever ranking. Mostly a Challenger player, he scored his biggest career win last year against Marin Cilic in the first round of the Shanghai Masters. Before arriving in Sao Paulo he'd only won one match this year, upsetting Dmitry Tursunov in Doha, but this is the surface where he's most comfortable -- in the handful of years he's been pro, he's racked up a fifty percent win record on the dirt. He's no Rafa, clearly, but this could be his chance to put himself on the map. He scored a decisive win over Santiago Giraldo in his first round yesterday and will next face Igor Andreev, a man he beat in their only previous meeting last year. It wouldn't surprise me if he made an even bigger push this time around.

I might be expecting even bigger things from Argentina's Carlos Berlocq, a man possibly best known for nearly getting triple-bageled by Novak Djokovic last year at the U.S. Open. Still he's improving his game steadily, adding five Challenger trophies to his case last year -- all on clay -- and making his first Tour final last week at Viña del Mar. Now #42 in the world, he dropped just four games to Eric Prodon in their first round in Brazil. Next up is Potito Starace, himself a force on the surface. Berlocq has lost to the Italian the only two times they've played, but if he can get a hold of his opponent early, he should be able to live up to his fifth seed at least a little while longer.

The ladies in Bogota have an even bigger chance to shine this week. With no one in the top fifty entered in Colombia -- and seeds #2, #3, #4 and #7 already out -- there's plenty of opportunity for upsets and maybe no real favorites left in the draw.

Eighteen-year-old Timea Babos has already won nine ITF titles and took the Juniors' doubles crown at three Majors back in 2010. She is still a newbie on the main Tour, but after defeating third seed Romina Oprandi on Wednesday, she might have a little more confidence that she can hit with the big girls. Her next match against Yaroslava Shvedova, herself a Slam doubles champion and former top-thirty singles player, will be much harder, of course. But if she can pull of the win, I'd look for even bigger things from her this year.

But also keep an eye on unheralded top seed Marina Erakovic. The surprise finalist last year in Quebec City, she's only won one Tour match since then. Still, with wins over Tamira Paszek, Daniela Hantuchova and even Victoria Azarenka in the past twelve months, she can't be completely discounted. Now ranked #56 in the world, she faces beat Stefanie Voegele in her Bogota opener, but clearly the path will be rockier further down the road. If the Croat can get at least a few wins under her belt this week and back up her seeding a little bit she might get the bump she needs to make a big push later in the year.

Whether any of these guys actually does take advantage of the chances they've been given in South America is yet to be seen. But if they live up to their potential, any one could break through this week. And now's as good a time as any to announce to the world they've arrived.