Where Anything Can Happen

We should know by now there are very few certainties on the clay court -- other than, of course, that if you're facing Rafael Nadal on it, it's pretty inevitable you're going to lose. But everyone else is much more vulnerable, so it shouldn't be such a surprise that so many unlikely stars were able to make such big statements over the past week, as we kicked off the now slightly longer road to Roland Garros.

🇨🇴 QUEEN OF BOGOTA 🇨🇴

Teenage wildcard @CamiOsorioTenis wins her first-ever WTA title with a comeback victory on home soil!#CopaColsanitas pic.twitter.com/fyuIZkB5bB

— wta (@WTA) April 11, 2021

Copa Calsanitas, Bogotá, Colombia

I'll start in Bogotá, where the upsets came early and came often. Perhaps it shouldn't be that much of a shocker, as the only entrant in the top fifty was a recently surging Sara Sorribes Tormo, whose run in Miami came just a bit too late to give her the top seed here. But she lost her opening match to veteran Sara Errani, and the woman who did squeak into that #1 spot, Saisai Zhang, dropped one round later. Ultimately only one seed made it as far as the quarterfinals, and Tamara Zidansek, the 23-year-old from Slovenia ranked #93 in the world, was able to stay steady enough to make her second career final.

But in Sunday's match she ran into nineteen year old Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, a wildcard who'd played only a handful of tour-level main draws before this. But the former top-ranked Junior and 2019 U.S. Open Girls' champ was understandably at home on the courts of her native Colombia, scoring wins over seventh seed Tereza Martincova and veteran Stefanie Voegele. In the final, she dropped the first set to Zidansek, the first she'd lost all week, but then rallied back to stun her opponent in a nearly three hour match to claim the trophy. The win not only earned her some serious bragging rights, but may have put her on the radar as a potential spoiler as things really start heating up. After all, we know this is the part of the season when the young guns can really shine.

Volvo Car Open, Charleston, South Carolina

The stakes were a little higher in Charleston, where four Grand Slam champions were counted among the seeds, another elsewhere in the draw. But the favorites strunggled here too -- red hot Garbiñe Muguruza retired with a leg injury while up a bagel set to Yulia Putintseva in the third round, while Sofia Kenin lost her opener and Miami champ Ashleigh Barty was stunned by Paula Badosa in the quarters. And Petra Kvitova was ousted surprisingly easily by world #91 Danka Kovinic, who beat two more seeds on her way to the final.

There, though, she met world #38 Veronika Kudermetova, the fifteen seed who'd taken out that other Major winner -- a still-struggling Sloane Stephens -- in the quarters. It was the second championship match of her career -- she kicked off 2021 with a run to the title match in Abu Dhabi, beating Elina Svitolina before finally bowing to then unbeatable Aryna Sabalenka -- but she'd had a much easier road than her opponent, not facing another seed during her run. And she made good on her favored status in the final too, breaking her opponent four times on her way to the win. It was her first career trophy and might be enough to push her into seeding territory for the next Slam. And if she keeps her momentum going, it could really make some other sit up and take notice.

Sardegna Open, Cagliari, Italy

Things went a little more according to plan for the men last week, but that's not to say there weren't any surprises. In Cagliari, young Lorenzo Musetti stayed strong in a roller coaster of a match with top seeded Daniel Evans, saving four match points before getting the win in the second round. And world #49 Laslo Djere made a big play for his third clay court title, notching upsets over sixth seeded John Millman and fourth seed Nikoloz Basilashvili on his way to the final.

Meanwhile third seeded Lorenzo Sonego was plugging away in the bottom half of the draw. The 25-year-old Italian can be a little up and down in his play -- he lost his first five matches of last season and then scored one of the biggest upsets of the year with a win over Novak Djokovic in Vienna. In 2021 too, he lost his opener at the Murray River Open to world #265 Jason Kubler and couldn't seem to get much traction at events after that. That changed this week in Italy, though -- after staging a comeback against a very talented Yannick Hanfmann in the quarters, he got the better over second seed Taylor Fritz in the semis. He was tested again by Djere in the final, but he was able to stay strong and win his second career title. For added measure, he teamed up with compatriot Andrea Vavassori to also claim the doubles trophy. And if he can play as consistently as he did this week, he could cause a lot of trouble for the favorites when the stakes get raised.

Andalucia Open, Marbella, Spain

Of course not all top seeds were so unlucky this week. In Marbella, Pablo Carreño Busta, who'd been a little quiet this year after his phenomenal end to the 2020 season, was able to make good on his spot at the top and claim his fifth career title, his second on the dirt. Without having to face anyone in the top forty during his run, he was the clear favorite in the championship match. But that's not to say we didn't see some other surprises in Spain.

Seventeen-year-old phenom Carlos Alcaraz continued his ascent on tour, stunning veteran Feliciano Lopez in his second round and following up with a win over a quickly climbing Casper Ruud a match later. The wins earned him his first ATP semifinal and boosted him fifteen ranking spots to #118 in the world. And something tells me that number is only going higher from here. He did eventually lose to finalist Jaume Munar, though -- the fellow Spaniard, ranked just inside the top hundred, had opened his run with a solid win over an often spotty Fabio Fognini. And while he couldn't ultimately get the better of PCB in the championship match, the fact that he pushed the eventual champion to three sets might bode well for his future too.

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So with week one of the 2021 clay court season in the books, and the big events starting with the Rolex Masters around the corner, we're starting to see how things could shape up as we head to Paris. Can this week's winners make any real headway at the bigger events? Well, some have better chances than others. But with momentum on their side right now, it should be fun to see what they do with it.

A Strong Opening Statement

Well the first tournaments of 2021 are officially in the books, and we sure were treated to some striking performances as we get ready for the Australian Open. From the Middle East to Florida, we saw a slew of stars kick off the year on a positive note, and it wasn't just those who walked away with the trophies that made the strongest statements.

Christian Harrison:

✅ Defeats Gianluca Mager in quarterfinal
✅ Reaches first career ATP semifinal
✅ 7-0 at #DBOpen (qualies, singles, and doubles) pic.twitter.com/5qVN5iLxP9

— Delray Beach Open (@DelrayBeachOpen) January 11, 2021

That's not to take anything away from Aryna Sabalenka, who won her third straight tournament in Abu Dhabi. The often-streaky star has been on point for months, and made her way through a tough draw in the desert, with wins over Maria Sakkari -- who'd ousted top seed Sofia Kenin -- and 2020 standouts Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur on her way to the final. She was the clear favorite over Veronika Kudermetova, who stunned Elina Svitolina on the way to her first title match, and she didn't disappoint.

But young Marta Kostyuk also made a bit of a statement during the week. Barely ranked in double digits, the eighteen-year-old has spent most of her time on the ITF circuit, but she made the third round at the U.S. Open last year with wins over Daria Kasatkina and a seeded Anastasija Sevastova. She had her path cleared for her a bit in Abu Dhabi, with others taking care of threats like Jennifer Brady and Karolina Pliskova for her. But she held her ground well and if she keeps it up could be primed for more success to come.

Meanwhile in Antalya, Turkey, which for the past few years was held in the summer on grass just ahead of Wimbledon, we got to see a slew of Next Gen players take the hardcourts for a chance to wrack up some hardware before heading to Melbourne. But it wasn't top seeded Matteo Berrettini or former world #7 David Goffin making the headlines -- though the latter, at least, did make the semis, notching his first match wins since the U.S. Open. Instead the final saw his vanquisher, twenty-year-old Alex de Minaur, score a win over Alexander Bublik, winning the fourth title of his career and reminding us why he's the top ranked Australian on tour.

It's worth keeping an eye on Bublik this year too, though. While he injured his ankle in his semifinal match and had to retire after the first two games of the championship, he's the kind of guy who knows how to get under the top players' skin -- and not just because of his controversial serve style. Last year he pulled off wins over Denis Shapovalov and Gael Monfils and he was the one who ousted Berrettini in the quarters. He hasn't won a title yet, but if he'd been healthy I wouldn't have put an upset past him this time around.

Perhaps the biggest surprises, though, happened in Delray Beach. Not that we shouldn't have expected Poland's Hubert Hurkacz to find the success he did -- the fourth seed scored wins over Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem last year -- but he had to fight through a couple of true stand-outs to do it. Most obviously in the final against rising star Sebastian Korda, who only cracked the top two hundred after a Cinderella run at Roland Garros last fall. He notched wins over fifth seed Tommy Paul and former top-tenner John Isner -- his second straight victory over the big man -- to make his first tour final. While he ran out of steam in Wednesday's match, he continues to be one high on the radar.

And then, of course, is the true wonder of the week -- Christian Harrison, the 26-year-old ranked #789 in the world who'd only won two tour-level main draw matches in his entire caree before this trip to Florida. After eight surgeries from 2009 to 2018, though he finally seemed to get his footing, powering through qualifying rounds and stunning top-seeded Cristian Garin early in his campaign. He put up a fight versus Hurkacz in the semis, though, and even teamed with his brother Ryan to make the doubles final. And while this one result should give him a nice boost back up the rankings, the real takeaway is the feel-good story he's left in our cores.

Of course these were only the opening salvos of the 2021 tennis season, and it will be a few weeks before play picks back up in Australia. But it certainly seems like we've gotten off to a good start. And hopefully there's a lot more of what we've seen still to come.

The Hangover

It should come as no surprise that after a big night out it's not always easy to spring out of bed the next morning and find the energy you need to really be at your best. And, while it may not always happen under the same circumstances, the world's best athletes are certainly not immune from that feeling.

Take, for example, what we've seen over the last few days at the Western & Southern Open in New York. While there have been plenty of upstarts riding high after taking advantage of the many holes in the ladies' field, too many have crashed back down to earth when looking to follow through.

The first example came when Russia's Veronika Kudermetova, who hadn't notched a top ten win at all this season, toppled top seeded Karolina Pliskova, a titleist at the Cincinnatti event in 2016 and a finalist at the U.S. Open that same year. The 23-year-old wasn't able to extend her run, though, falling a round later to a largely underappreciated Elise Mertens. Then Alizé Cornet, currently #60 in the world, trounced Australian Open champ Sofia Kenin in straight sets. The veteran Frenchwoman then fell in her third round to a resurgent Victoria Azarenka.

But perhaps the biggest high came when Maria Sakkari took the court against Serena Williams on Tuesday. The Greek star, just a shade off her career best ranking at #21 in the world, has had some decent wins over the past year, beating the likes of Elina Svitolina, Petra Kvitova, and Madison Keys, among others. In her opener this week she plowed through wunderkind Coco Gauff in straight sets. And while Williams has struggled to close the deal recently, winning just one title since 2017, Sakkari was clearly the underdog last night. She lost a tight first set and came within two points of dropping the whole match a few times, but after winning the second in a tiebreak, she rolled through the decider in about half an hour.

Back to back @CincyTennis quarterfinal appearances! 🤩 @mariasakkari defeats Williams, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-1.#CInCyTENNIS pic.twitter.com/MS4ckFnACD

— wta (@WTA) August 26, 2020

It was by far the biggest win of Sakkari's career, but unfortunately the momentum didn't last too long. She lost today in straight sets to Britain's Johanna Konta, a woman she'd defeated last year for her first and so far only title in Rabat. Notably, it's the second event in a row that Serena's vanquisher has fallen a round later -- earlier this month in Lexington, then-#116 Shelby Rogers scored the win of her lifetime and immediately folded to eventual champion Jennifer Brady. Perhaps that's a good omen for Konta.

It's not just the women who can fall victim to the second day slump -- an on-the-mend Andy Murray scored his biggest win since 2016 when he defeated world #7 Alexander Zverev on Monday, but fell to Milos Raonic a day later. But a couple men have a chance to keep their highs going a little longer. Big-serving Reilly Opelka followed up his win over Diego Schwartzman by taking out sixth seeded Matteo Berrettini, and Serbia's Filip Krajinovic not only crushed Dominic Thiem in the second round, he's currently up a break on Raonic for a spot in the semis.

Of course, the important thing is not whether these players suffer a hangover every once in a while -- we all can relate with needing a little time to recover from a big celebration -- it's whether they pick themselves up the day after that. And whether they were the ones on the losing side of the initial upset or the ones who lost their mojo a bit, the bigger tests are still to come. And what they learn from these experiences will be what matters in the end.