Desert Training

I'm still not sure I entirely understand all the reasoning behind the move, but with the pandemic throwing our lives into disarray in so many ways, I suppose rearranging the schedule ahead of this year's Australian Open is the least strange thing that's happened in the past year.

And so we find ouselves at the start of the qualifying rounds for the first Grand Slam of 2021, held not the week before the main draw kicks off, but nearly a month ahead of time -- and not on the courts of Melbourne Park, but in the heat of the Middle East, with the men battling in Doha while the women face off in Dubai.

The conditions are oddly similar -- it is, after all, the heat of the summer Down Under -- but it still remains to be seen how those who make it through these rounds will fare when they make the trip down to Australia. Still, there are a couple early results, both from players new to the game and those who've been around a while, that might be reason to sit up and take notice.

The Women

Part of the young guard ready to take up the reins, twenty-year-old Kaja Juvan is the top seed in the women's qualifying draw, and after a year in which she scored wins over Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber, she might be ready to capitalize. But it's also worth watching Renata Zarazua, who made history at Roland Garros last year as the first Mexican to win a main draw match at that event. She could challenge Juvan for one of those open slots here, too. There's also teenager Clara Burel, who stunned Juvan at the French last year to make the third round. She'll face off against Anna Kalinskaya to make the final round.

Maybe highest profile of the young bunch, though -- at least in the U.S. -- is nineteen year old Caty McNally, who has won a handful of Grand Slam matches already in her short career -- she also made the quarters in doubles at the French last year. She's been overshadowed a bit by her doubles partner, Coco Gauff, and might just be ready to break out on her own now.

Of course, there are a couple of more familiar, or at least more battle-worn, faces in the mix trying to make another run for glory too. Chief among them is Sara Errani, a quarterfinalist in Melbourne back in 2014 and 2015, but now ranked #131 in the world. She had to fight for her win in the first round of qualifying and next plays a Georgina Garcia Perez, a woman who's only ever played one Major main draw, but is coming off a double bagel victory in her last match. There's also Genie Bouchard, one of my comeback stories of 2020. Her semifinal run here seems a lifetime ago, but she's making a real effort to make herself relevant again, and I'd like to see her keep going.

But if you want my pick for the vet to watch, it's got to be Tsvetana Pironkova. The undisputed Cinderella of the U.S. Open last year, it seems wrong that she has to endure qualifying rounds in Melbourne, but she crushed her first round opponent and seems poised to continue her comeback. Whatever happens though, I imagine we're going to see a lot more of her over the next few months.

The Men

Many of the young men I was hoping could make a statement this year, unfortunately, will have to wait a little longer to be heard. Brandon Nakashima, who capped off 2020 with a Challenger title in Orlando, fell in three sets to Russia's Aslan Karatsev, while Lorenzo Musetti, who beat Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori in Rome, squandered an early lead to lose his first round in the qualifying draw. Even Thiago Seyboth wild, my pick for one to watch this year, fell just short, losing in a third set tiebreak to veteran Robin Haase.

But not all hope is lost for the men. Seventeen year old Carlos Alcaraz, who stunned Albert Ramos in Rio last year, took one step closer to making his first main draw at a Slam with his win Sunday. While he's expected to meet second seeded Hugo Dellien if he advances past the next round, something tells me he might just be able to add another upset on his resume.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are a couple of veterans worth watching in the men's qualifying draw, too, though their prospects may be a little more tenuous than the tried-and-true women. First off there's Viktor Troicki, who peaked just outside the top ten nearly a decade ago and now sits below the #200 in the world. He hasn't qualified for a Major in two years, and even when he was playing them regularly, he never got past the fourth round. He won his first match in Doha, and it'll be interesting to see if he can find what it takes to get a few more wins in now.

And hot-headed Bernard Tomic, once heralded as the next big thing in the sport, has only won one match at a Slam since 2017. The one-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist hasn't played at all since last March, when he lost early at a Challenger event in Monterrey, but did notch a win in qualifying over Jozek Kovalik earlier today. There are no more seeds left in his section of the draw, so the path's wide open for him, if he chooses to take it.

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I know I don't often spend a lot of time covering qualifying events, but a variety of circumstances make the results this week seem a little more worthy of our attention. And the fact that we've seen some truly inspirational performances recently from the players who've emerged from these draws makes them even more noteable.

Will any of these players stand a chance when they hit the courts in Melbourne? Who knows. But if we've learned anything over the last year it's that [almost] anything is possible. And wit a little bit of luck, maybe one of these guys will be the one that makes a splash.

The Way, Way Back

Over the last couple years we've seen some new names and faces make some big statements at Davis Cup. Whether they ushered in a new era of domination on the world stage or finally rewarded efforts that had so far only been successful on the singles circuit, the countries that hoisted the trophies at the end of the year were breaking new ground.

But this year's final will turn back the clock more than a bit and bring back two teams who've long been missing from this battle. In fact, you have to rewind all the way to 1904 to find a championship contested by the two nations who'll be out for long-awaited glory this year.

Great Britain, in fact, despite deep talent over the years, last reached the Davis Cup final in 1978. And after years of being relegated to the World Group playoffs, the one-time world power finally made it back to the big leagues just last year. They were up against a tough Australian team, though, which might have been missing a recently verboten Nick Kyrgios, but still boasted young, albeit brash, talent from Bernard Tomic and Thanasi Kokkinakis -- so the Brits knew they had to bring their A-game. Andy Murray got off to a good start, easily handling Kokkinakis in the first rubber, but the lead was erased when Tomic felled Daniel Evans in four sets. On Day Two though, Murray teamed up with his brother Jamie and in a marathon doubles match against veteran Lleyton Hewitt and 2014 standout Sam Groth came back from dropping the fourth set tiebreak to claim the win and a 2-1 lead. The world #3, clearly over his surprise dismissal at the U.S. Open earlier in the month, went on to score another decisive win over Tomic on Sunday, clinching the tie for his country and, more importantly, their first trip to a Davis Cup championship in almost four decades.

There they'll face a team whose had an even longer drought at these events. Belgium's won just six ties at the World Group level and their only trip to the final came those hundred-plus years ago when they faced off against what were known as the British Isles at the time. But led by last year's comeback kid David Goffin, this year they've taken out the defending champion Swiss in their first round and then blanked the Canadians back in July. In this weekend's tie against Argentina, Goffin again put his team ahead with a tight win in the first rubber, but saw his team fall behind as Steve Darcis lost both his singles and Saturday's doubles rubber to Leonardo Mayer & Co. He kept Belgium alive though on Sunday, dropping just a handful of games to Diego Schwartzman, making Darcis' deciding match against Federico Delbonis that much more important. But this time Darcis stood up to the challenge -- after dropping the second set and failing to serve out the match in the fourth, he rolled through a tiebreak to pull off the win and give his teammates a chance they haven't had in a long, long time.

Of course the Brits won that championship a century ago by a score of 5-0, but something tells me this time around things could be a little closer. After all both teams have some real talent on their side and, perhaps, even a couple vulnerabilities. And with a chance neither has seen in several lifetimes, you can bet both will bring their very best to this year's final, and perhaps set a brand new stage for what's to come

Breakthroughs and Comebacks

It seems to be a common occurrence in the weeks right after a Major, where the pressure is a little off, that we see players who've been struggling with form come out swinging. And yesterday we saw a couple champions crowned after what seems like a long, long time out of the spotlight, and, in come cases, completely out of contention.

We've seen Bernard Tomic climb and fall in the rankings -- and in life -- for years, surging into the low twenties after a Cinderella run to the Wimbledon quarters four years ago, dropping well out of the top hundred at this time last year, and grabbing as many headlines for his off-court behavior as for his play. But despite all the distractions, the one-time Australian wünderkind came to Bogota to defend a title at near his highest career ranking. He wasn't without his challenges though -- the second seed dropped sets against little-known Adrian Menendez-Maceiras and triple-digit ranked Michael Berrer, and even was tested by underrated Adrian Mannarino in the final. The Frenchman, who'd avenged a loss to Newport champion Rajeev Ram in his opener and scored a huge win over big-serving Ivo Karlovic in the semis, was able to push Tomic to a third set, but ultimately succumbed. Tomic's win gives him his third career title but may have also proved he's an even bigger threat when he seems most down-and-out.

Sam Stosur had climbed even higher than her compatriot during her heyday, but the former Grand Slam champion has seemed well off her career best the last few months. She hadn't won more than three matches at any Major since 2012 and had spent most of this year ranked outside the top twenty. The thirty-one year old veteran had picked up a title in Strasbourg in May, but was pushed to a decider in her last three matches and didn't play a top-forty player during her campaign. On paper her draw in Bad Gastein may not have been much more intimidating, but she nevertheless did face off against some heavy-hitters -- she dropped just one game to recent star Klara Koukalova and ended Anna Schmiedlova's impressive run in the semis. In the final against Karin Knapp -- a woman who was playing her second double-header of the week, having taken out top seed Sara Errani earlier on Sunday -- she was arguably better rested, but nonetheless challenged again. The Italian won the first set and took the second to a tiebreak, but Stosur didn't give up -- she ploughed through the third set and come out the winner in the two and a half hour match. It earner her a eighth career title and pushed her back up to #21 in the world -- if she keeps it up on her favorite summer hard court season, the former U.S. Open titleist might just be able to make a case for another strong showing in New York.

Dominic Thiem is much earlier on in his career so doesn't have quite the same spoils to show for his efforts -- but the young Austrian is certainly coming into his own this year. He'd been a little quiet since breaking the title seal in Nice, winning just three matches between that and his trip to Umag last week, but the twenty-one year old was able to turn things around in Croatia. After winning his first two matches by retirement, he scored a solid comeback win against tournament favorite Gael Monfils, setting up a championship bout against barely unseeded Joao Sousa. The Portuguese workhorse had already taken out Andreas Seppi, Fabio Fognini and Roberto Bautista Agut on the way to his first final of the year and may have been a little spent by the time he met up against Thiem. The fourth seed powered through a tight first set, but then rolled over his opponent in the second for his third straight win over Sousa and his second crown of the year. Now at a career-high #24 in the world he may be in a position to really make a statement at the big events now -- and if he can put up the same kind of performances against the very top players, it won't be long before the more prestigious titles start coming too.

Elsewhere on Tour a couple players were trying to make their first big impressions on championship Sunday. Lesia Tsurenko had picked up a couple ITF titles during her career, but had never reached the final on the Big Girls' circuit. The twenty-six year old Ukrainian did make a great run to the Indian Wells quarterfinals with wins over Genie Bouchard and Andrea Petkovic to name a few, but only won three matches since then and was ranked outside the top seventy when she hit the courts in Istanbul. That didn't seem to phase her much, though -- after taking out a tough Daria Gavrilova in her opener, she trounced both Daniela Hantuchova and Kirsten Flipkens. Meanwhile Urszula Radwanska, well off her career best since dealing with a slew of injuries the last few seasons, was also going for her first title -- she'd made the final in Den Bosch three years ago -- and stood a pretty good shot at picking one up earlier in 2015 than her more decorated older sister. She'd taken out Jelena Jankovic to start and then powered past a strong Tsvetana Pironkova in the quarters. She put up a fight too on Sunday, but Tsurenko proved the more ready -- after a 7-5 first set, she ran away with the second, closing out the match in just over ninety minutes. The win rocketed her into the top fifty for the first time in her career may just make others sit up and take notice the next time she takes the court.

Up in Bastad a one-time top-thirty player was trying to prove he's still worth paying attention to. Benoit Paire had topped out at #24 in the world early last year but since dropping into the triple digits spent a lot of time this season on the Challengers' and Futures circuit. He did manage a win over Fabio Fognini at the French Open and over Mikhail Youzhny at Wimbledon, but he came to the Swedish Open an unseeded #62. Still, he impressively stopped David Goffin, who was coming off quite a successful Davis Cup showing over the weekend, and then took out an often overlooked Pablo Cuevas in the semis. His biggest test waited for him in the final, though, where veteran Tommy Robredo was seeking his third crown at this event. With a much lower ranking and having lost the pair's only previous meeting -- and, not unimportantly, playing his first career championship match -- Paire was a heavy underdog. But he didn't let that trouble him -- after eking out the opening set in a tight tiebreak, he scored the only break of the match in the second and clinched the first really big win of his career. Now back in the top fifty, he's still well off his best. But after seeing him finally power through a draw like he did last week, he might finally be able to push his way higher.

Making a Stand

There are plenty of favorites still alive and more than kicking in Indian Wells, but with many quarterfinal matches left to play you may notice a couple unexpected names in the mix. And these players haven't just sneaked through the draws this time -- they're pulling off the big upsets themselves.

Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised to see Feliciano Lopez standing -- the veteran Spaniard is coming off the best year of his career, having climbed to his highest ever ranking at the start of the month. He did struggle a bit during his early rounds in Melbourne, though, and was stunned by Victor Estrella Burgos in the Quito final. So maybe we didn't expect a big fight when he met an on-point Kei Nishikori -- who'd reached the final in Acapulco and won his third straight title in Memphis. But Feli scored his first win over the fifth seed in nearly two years on Wednesday to set up a quarterfinal clash against Andy Murray, a man who's beaten him in all nine of their previous meetings. Still he's scored more than a few wins over top ten players in the past year, so it's certainly not out of the question for him to keep his run going.

A little more impressive has been the performance of Bernard Tomic in the California desert. The one-time Wimbledon wunderkind had fallen way down the rankings in the years after, grabbing more headlines for his behavior off the court than on it and dropping briefly back into triple digits last year. He seems to have turned things back in his favor this season though -- he beat world #24 Philipp Kohlschreiber twice in a row in Australia and reached the semis in Delray. Just inside seeding territory at the BNP Paribas Open, he scored his first top-ten win since 2013, ending David Ferrer's eleven-match win streak in the third round. He's got a tough task ahead of him, of course, meeting top seed and defending champion Novak Djokovic next. But he might be able to put up a bigger fight than you'd think this time around.

The women's draw, not shockingly, has seen a few more upsets throughout, but the bottom half of the bracket boasts a foursome of ladies who many had started too -- or completely -- written off. Former Wimbledon finalist Sabine Lisicki had only managed one win all year long and saw her ranking fall from a high of #12 in the world a few years back to a less-than-stellar #30 now. But so far in Indian Wells, she's already taken out doubles specialist Roberta Vinci, Rio champ Sara Errani, and most recently a red-hot Caroline Garcia. For a spot in the semis, she'll meet defending champion Flavia Pennetta, who pulled of an impressive upset of Maria Sharapova on Tuesday night. She too needed the confidence boost -- her only notable win this year came over an also-struggling Angelique Kerber in Dubai, and with so much on the line at this event, she's under more pressure than most. Lisicki and Pennetta have never faced off before, but with both so hungry for the win, this could be a good one.

But we may see even more fireworks in the other quarter being contested today. Jelena Jankovic, who won the title here in 2010, was a disappointing 2-4 so fart this year and had dropped pretty soundly out of the top ten. She's been tested throughout her early matches, going three sets in each round so far, but pulled off a solid win over a now-higher ranked Madison Keys on Monday and followed up by avenging her first round U.S. Open loss to Belinda Bencic a day later. Even more impressive, though, has been the run of her next opponent, qualifier Lesia Tsurenko, ranked just #85 in the world. The Ukranian has taken sets off Angelique Kerber and Timea Bacsinszky this year, but hasn't done much of note during her career -- her biggest win to date may have come over then-#23 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at the 2013 Australian Open. But she began her BNP Open campaign with a huge win over Antwerp champ Andrea Petkovic, held strong against an always tricky Alizé Cornet, and on Tuesday stunned sixth seed Eugenie Bouchard. This is by far her best result at a Tour-level event, and while she'll surely be the underdog in today's match, she's pulled off bigger and more impressive upsets before.

It's always great to see players persevering through some tough challenges -- and over the last few days in Indian Wells we've really gotten to see some surprising stars shine. Hopefully they'll be able to keep it up -- after all, the statements they make at an event this big could serve them well for many more months to come.

A Long History: Davis Cup First Round Preview

Is it just me, or do the pairings for some of this weekend's Davis Cup ties seem to hold a little more historic significance than usual? Whether the battles bfacring up political tensions, reminders of centuries-old imperialism, or long-standing rivalries, you can't help but feel this weekend won't be the first time a couple of these combatants have faced off.

Germany vs. France

The two euro zone superpowers have a long political and economic history with each other as they jockeyed for control of the Continent, and things could get just as exciting on the tennis courts this weekend. Both teams are bringing their best, but despite homecourt advantage the Germans might find themselves struggling. Top ranked Philipp Kohlschreiber has only won two matches this year, both against sub-#90 players. And Benjamin Becker hasn't done much better, scoring a nice upset of Julien Benneteau in Melbourne, but failing to rebound from a long second round against Lleyton Hewitt a match later. Meanwhile, while the French are missing top dog Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, they do have both Marseille finalists Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils to helm their squad. Simon, who beat his compatriot for the title, also has a win over Andy Murray under his belt this year. With results like that, they'll have a pretty good shot at making a run back to the final.

Great Britain vs. U.S.

Over in Scotland the Americans will make another bid to get out from under British reign, and they may have had the firepower to do it. While big-serving John Isner has fallen a bit off the highs of his game recently, once-struggling Donald Young seems to have re-found his. After briefly falling out of the top two hundred in 2013, he's clawed his way back to relevance, reaching at least the quarters of three events already this year. It's been a while since he's beaten anyone in the top twenty, though, but he might have the momentum to change that this weekend. Of course world #5 Andy Murray will be standing in both their ways -- but the Australian Open runner-up has lost to both Gilles Simon and emerging star Borna Coric in recent weeks and notched a loss to Young in Indian Wells a few years back. Still, he's more than capable of carrying the team on his own. It may ultimately come down to the doubles rubbers and there the U.S. could rely heavily on its beacon Bryan Brothers -- the twins picked up their 106^th title together in Delray and have clinched wins for their country on more than one occasion. There's no reason they can't do it again.

Argentina vs. Brazil

We're probably more used to seeing the South American soccer heavyweights face off on a different kind of battleground, but this weekend they'll concentrate instead on the clay courts. And while the surface certainly suits both teams, it's hard to give either one a clear edge. Argentina has the stronger roster on paper, but they are missing their big guns -- former world #4 Juan Martin Del Potro is still recovering from wrist surgery while Juan Monaco, last week's finalist in Buenos Aires, is sitting out this tie. The Brazilians, meanwhile, are bringing their best, but their top player Joao Souza is only just peaking at #75, and Thomaz Bellucci, once so close to the top twenty, hasn't had too many big wins over the last year. The Argentines do bring Leonardo Mayer, one of the more underrated players in the sport, and Diego Schwartzman, who won the year-end Challengers' title last season -- the Brazilians counter with a couple highly-ranked doubles players in Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares. At the end of the day Buenos Aires might provide a slight homecourt advantage, but it could go all the way down to the wire.

Serbia vs. Croatia

The two former Yugoslavian states faced off once before at Davis Cup, with the Serbs winning handily 4-1, and this time might not be much different. The Croats are still without their big star, U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic who continues to recover from a shoulder injury, and are instead led by young Borna Coric. That's not so bad, though -- the eighteen year old beat Rafael Nadal last year in Basel and is fresh off a win over Andy Murray in Dubai. At a career-high #61 in the world, he might just be able to add one more top-ten scalp to his take. Still you have to give a strong edge to the Serbs, who bring world #1 Novak Djokovic and rapidly rebounding Viktor Troicki to the mix. The former followed up a title in Melbourne with a run to the final in the UAE, while the latter picked up his first title since 2010 as a qualifier in Sydney. Add to that Nenad Zimonjic who, at thirty-eight years of age, is still a solid force on the doubles circuit and it's tough to see the home team having too much trouble.

Belgium vs. Switzerland

Of course not all the match-ups this weekend are so fraught with historical undertones, but everyone still has parts to play. The traditionally neutral Swiss are likely to remain typically unbiased this weekend, event as they should be mounting a defense of their first ever Davis Cup title. Roger Federer decided to sit out the 2015 season, while fellow top-tenner Stan Wawrinka, who's also skipping this weekend's action, has yet to decide whether he'll play later in the year. That leaves a host of relative unknowns to make any kind of stand for Switzerland -- the highest ranked player is #292 Yann Marti. That could give Belgian's comeback kid David Goffin an opportunity to make up for some recently lackluster results -- he's lost twice in a row to veteran Marcos Baghdatis and has only gotten past the second round of one event this year. Even Steve Darcis, who notched his biggest career win over Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon two years ago, could step up to the plate and notch a couple wins off the Challengers' circuit this year.

Czech Republic vs. Australia

Meanwhile the Czechs will try to reclaim the crown they ceded to the Swiss last year, but they too might have a bit of trouble. While rising star Jiri Vesely and one-time giant killer Lukas Rosol could certainly deliver, they are without their biggest stars, Melbourne semifinalist Tomas Berdych and doubles specialist Radek Stepanek. And the men from Down Under could take advantage of those holes -- players like Sam Groth and a resurgent Bernard Tomic have been rallying of late. And while veteran Lleyton Hewitt is far from his career highs, he's more than proven he can never be counted out. With a little more star power on the Aussies' side, they could stop the Czech's comeback cold.

Canada vs. Japan

We could see some fireworks in the match-up between a couple countries that haven't had a lot of experience in Davis Cup. Canada and Japan have combined for just a dozen years in the World Group -- but in this rematch of last year's first round they're both out to prove they belong. Kei Nishikori climbed to a career high #4 in the world after reaching the final in Acapulco and is coming off what's easily been the most prolific twelve months of his career. He'll be joined by Tatsumo Ito, who beat Stan Wawrinka last year in Tokyo and might be primed for another upset. The Canadians are slightly more armed, though -- Milos Raonic has always had tough matches against Nishikori, but he won their last meeting in Brisbane in three tight tiebreaks. And he'll have back-up from Vasek Pospisil, a man who's beaten John Isner already this season and made a nice run to the Washington semis last year. He's also an accomplished doubles player and might just be called on, with veteran star Daniel Nestor, to serve as a ringer.

Kazakhstan vs. Italy

And in the final tie being contested this weekend, a relatively inexperienced Kazakh team goes up against the long-time also-rans. The Italians have a lot to be proud of -- Andreas Seppi scored an enormous win over Roger Federer at the Australian Open, Simone Bolelli stunned Milos Raonic in Marseill and recently struggling Fabio Fognini pulled off a huge upset of defending champion Rafael Nadal in Rio. While none of these players is quite at their best, they certainly seem to have a little momentum on their side. There could be some surprises this weekend -- Andrey Golubev did take out Stan Wawrinka last year in Davis Cup and veteran Mikhail Kukushkin has had his moments in the past -- but this is really Italy's battle to lose. And there's no reason they shouldn't live up to expectations.

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Whether this weekend's Davis Cup ties rekindle old rivalries or start to flame new ones, there's more than enough potential for some combative contests. And whoever emerges as the victors will have to recover quick -- this is just the beginning of what could be a long, drawn-out war.

The Upcoming Upsets

Okay, okay -- I know we only have one full round of action in the books at the Australian Open, but, man, did things get interesting in the first couple days in Melbourne! Seventeen seeds have already been knocked out of the draws and it's all but certain that more will follow.

So I'm going to take a look at a few second round matches that could easily go to the underdog. After all, with so many holes already drilled through the brackets, the only thing for sure is that nothing is predictable. And anyone could seize the opportunity right in front of them.

The Women First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

The Men First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

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The Women

First Quarter

The most obviously pick here is two-time champion Victoria Azarenka over eighth seed Caroline Wozniacki, either of whom could be a contender for the ultimate title. But even though the Belorussian is unseeded, it would be tough to consider her win a true upset -- so let's look elsewhere.

Tsvetana Pironkova has never gotten past the second round Down Under, but that might change this year. Last year's champion in Sydney opened her campaign with a one-sided win over Hobart champion Heather Watson and set up a meeting Thursday with 2014 runner-up Dominika Cibulkova, a woman who's been famously ineffective over the last several months. Domi did come back against a tough Kirsten Flipkens in her first round and has a solid 7-1 record against the Bulgarian -- still, she's proven herself more than vulnerable and Pironkova could take advantage. I'd also keep an eye on Daniela Hantuchova. The one-time world #4 struggled with a knee injury for much of last year and fell a bit down the rankings. But she notched a solid win over Sara Errani to start the season in Auckland and opened here by defeating Shenzhen semifinalist Saisai Zheng in straight sets. She'll face 2014 breakout star Garbiñe Muguruza next, and while that's certainly no easy task -- the young Spaniard drubbed an in-form Aga Radwanska in Sydney last week -- the veteran Slovak might just be able to get the upper hand. And with the other seed in this immediate section already eliminated, she might have a clear road for a few rounds more.

Second Quarter

Many of the favorites in this section have already been ousted -- unknown German Carina Witthoeft trounced Carla Suarez Narvarro, ninth seed Angelique Kerber lost a roller coaster match to Irina-Camelia Begu and and my spoiler Lucie Safarova came out on the wrong end of no-tiebreak third set. And while all that might help the top seeds breathe a little easier, others are still holding their breath.

Yaroslava Shvedova, twice a Grand Slam doubles champion, has been ranked as high as #25 on the singles circuit and often outplays her current sub-sixty ranking. Her win over Safarova set up a second round against barely favored Monica Puig -- the winner of last year's WTA Rising Stars final will certainly put up a fight, but the Kazakh's won their only previous meeting and could have experience on her side. Also watch out for twenty-year-old Anna Schmiedlova, who stunned Venus Williams in the second round of the French Open last year. She's up against often-overlooked Zarina Diyas next in Melbourne, and while she's again the long-shot, she's beaten tougher opponents in the past.

Third Quarter

The third quarter of the women's draw has arguably suffered the most damage, with Brisbane finalist Ana Ivanovic flaming out to qualifier Lucie Hradecka on Day One and 2013 Wimbledon runner-up Sabine Lisicki bowing out to last year's Roland Garros Cinderella Kristina Mladenovic a few hours later. Those won't be the only upsets in this section either.

Former world #15 Julia Goerges had fallen out of the top hundred last year and only won two Grand Slam matches during the season. She did manage to make the quarters in Auckland, even taking out Hradecka down in New Zealand, but she was still way off the radar by the time she reached Melbourne. The German was relatively lucky, getting dealt a low-seeded Belinda Bencic in her opener, but she defeated the young Swiss with surprising ease and set up a second round against world #46 Klara Koukalova. The two have split their previous four matches, but if Goerges can recapture her previous form there's no reason she can't use this opportunity to pull ahead. The same could be said for Roberta Vinci, who's fallen from her own levels of grace over the past year. She also has a 2-2 record against her next opponent Ekaterina Makarova, recently inducted into the sport's top ten, but the Russian has struggled with injury the last few months and Vinci could capitalize on the opportunity.

Fourth Quarter

Like with the top section of the bracket, the bottom has remained largely unscathed so far, with two mid-level seeds the only ones to suffer first round losses -- Andrea Petkovic, who'd gone winless since picking up the title in Sofia last year squandered an early lead to Hobart finalist Madison Brengle, while Flavia Pennetta suffered a second straight loss to Italian Camila Giorgi. Still, no one should rest on her laurels.

Veteran Australian Casey Dellacqua really came into her own here last year, reaching the fourth round with wins over Vera Zvonareva and Kirsten Flipkens. She didn't do a lot with her top seeding in Hobart last week though, needing three sets to get past Lauren Davis before losing in a decider to Karin Knapp a round later. She's up against barely unseeded Madison Keys next, a woman who beat her at her homeland's Major two years ago. The young American has already scored wins over Dominika Cibulkova and Svetlana Kuznetsova this year and picking up one more upset shouldn't be too much to ask. Compatriot Coco Vandeweghe has a similar opportunity -- ranked just two spots below Keys, she opened her run Down Under by taking out former French Open champ Francesca Schiavone. She'll face twentieth seed Sam Stosur on Thursday, and while the 2011 U.S. Open titleist did have a slight resurgence at the end of last year, she can definitely be caught off guard -- Coco did just that last year in Miami. And with the draw already shaking out the way that it has, she might just be able to keep going after that.

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The Men

First Quarter

Not surprisingly, there have been fewer casualties on the men's side of the Australian Open, but it hasn't all been smooth sailing. In Novak Djokovic's quarter both Feliciano Lopez and Gael Monfils were pushed to five sets, the former saving three match points before taking out American wildcard Denis Kudla on Tuesday. And the Frenchman, well acquainted with long matches, will be tested again immediately, going up next against big-serving Jerzy Janowicz in the next round. He does have the win in the pair's only meeting, but something tells me the Pole is going to put up a bigger fight this time.

Meanwhile Roberto Bautista Agut, who had a breakthrough on Tour this time last year, may face a tougher test. The rising Spanish star had a surprising loss to Aljaz Bedene in Chennai and retired during his second round in Auckland last week. He's already spent three hours on court in Melbourne, coming back from a set down to Dominic Thiem on Tuesday, and next faces Sydney semifinalist Gilles Muller, who had a relatively easy time in his own first round match. RBA does have a 2-0 record against the man from Luxembourg, but if he's not at the top of his game might have trouble keeping his record untarnished.

Second Quarter

The favorites in Roger Federer's section of the draw have been similarly strong -- the five time champion didn't drop serve once in his two hours on court, and Andy Murray, though tested by qualifier Yuki Bhambri, nevertheless survived his opener in straight sets. Only Tommy Robredo, who'd just pulled out of Auckland with a leg injury, retired early in the first set, giving veteran Edouard Roger-Vasselin a pass to the second round.

And while the seeds in this quarter may not have yet shown any obvious weaknesses, the overlooked players could still cause some damage. Portugal's Joao Sousa very quietly climbed to #35 in the world last year on the heels of a final run in Metz. He's up against Martin Klizan next, a mini Cinderella here last year -- the Slovak managed a win over Alexandr Dolgopolov this season in Brisbane but also lost to eventual champion Viktor Troicki in his Sydney first round. The two haven't played each other in three years, so it's tough to pick a winner, but Sousa is more than capable of putting up a fight. And Andreas Seppi, who squeaked past Denis Istomin in his opener, once pushed Novak Djokovic to the limit at the French Open. With a second round against low-seed Jeremy Chardy, he might be have an opening to make another play at the big guys.

Third Quarter

The third quarter of the draw is the only one that's so far suffered the biggest blow -- eleventh seed Ernests Gulbis, quiet late in 2014 due to a shoulder injury was stunned by Aussie teenager Thanassi Kokkinakis on Monday, becoming the first notable upset in the men's field. Few other seeds in this section had much trouble at all, though giant-killer Lukas Rosol did take his time against France's Kenny De Schepper -- but again, that could change.

Viktor Troicki continued his climb back up the rankings after taking the title in Sydney this weekend and kept his streak going with a win over Hobart champ Jiri Vesely on Tuesday. Next up for the Serb is underrated Leonardo Mayer, who had an easy time in his first round but should face a bigger challenge from the one-time world #12. Troicki's never gotten past the third round in Melbourne, but this might be the best chance he gets in a while. And Bernard Tomic, once Australia's wunderkind, is well off his career highs, but the possibly reformed Bad Boy could make a case for himself this fortnight. He'll meet Phillipp Kohlschreiber for the second time in two weeks -- he just beat him on his way to the Sydney quarters -- and may get the upper hand again. The favored German has only won one match so far this season and could prove vulnerable again.

Fourth Quarter

The last quarter in the men's draw has also seen a couple of higher-profile exits, but perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised that recently struggling Fabio Fognini and on-the-rebound Alexandr Dolgopolov have already bowed out of the Open. Meanwhile favorites like defending champ Stan Wawrinka, U.S. Open finalist Kei Nishikori and Doha titleist David Ferrer have all seemed on point and should be able to keep their runs going.

The one seed who might still be in danger is Colombia's Santiago Giraldo -- the clay court specialist quieted down significantly in the back half of last year and didn't score a win over anyone in the top thirty after Wimbledon. He beat qualifier Jan Hernych in straight sets on Monday, but will face a bigger challenge from #3 American Steve Johnson in the next round. The twenty-five year old hasn't faced Giraldo before, but after scoring his first ever win Down Under he might have the momentum to pull off an upset this time. And while he'll certainly face greater challenges down the road, a win like this could certainly whet his appetite for even bigger things to come.

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After the slew of surprises we saw during the first few days of action at the Australian Open, we can't believe that anyone left standing is particularly safe. But some players certainly have a better opportunity at causing a couple upsets than others. And hopefully a couple of them will be able to take that shot when they get the chance.

3...2...1...

The ball may have already dropped to ring in the New Year, but we're still a couple days away from the official start of the 2015 tennis season. And with last year's champions looking to continue their momentum, former greats hoping for a successful return and a couple newbies seeking their big breaks, you know we're going to see some top-notch action from the start.

Of course it won't be full steam ahead for everyone -- Juan Martin Del Potro delayed his comeback and pulled out of Brisbane, while a couple players who entered exhibitions at International Premier League events ultimately withdrew from early tournaments too. And even those who did hit the court again struggled -- Rafael Nadal, playing his first match since an appendectomy in November, won just two games off Andy Murray at the Mubadala World Tennis Championships this week. Results like these could open the door to plenty others.

The only woman who's ever won the title in Shenzhen won't be back to defend, of course, and top tier champs like Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova will be eager to fill her spot. But they're not the only ones -- last year's runner-up Shaui Peng had a strong end to her 2014 season and could get a nice boost from homecourt advantage. And Zarina Diyas, who quietly climbed to #33 in the world, got to the final in Osaka in October and could take a couple in the field here by surprise. But I'm going to keep an eye on Vera Zvonareva, whose comeback last year was half-hearted at best. If she's fully recovered now, she might be ready to cause some of the damage we all know she's capable of.

The women's bracket in Brisbane is a little more intimidating with eight top twenty players hitting the courts in Australia. Singapore qualifiers Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic lead the pack but the biggest surprises could come from some unseeded spoilers. Hometown favorite Sam Stosur launched a late-season comeback last year, reaching the semis in Beijing and taking her third title in Osaka, and 2014 runner-up Victoria Azarenka, who's coming off her first trophy-less season since 2008, will look to make up points right off the bat. But perhaps the player with the greatest chance of shaking things up is Karolina Pliskova who won the Girls' title in Melbourne back in 2010 -- in September she made the final in Hong Kong and followed up that run with titles in Seoul and Linz. She was an alternate at the Tournament of Champions in Sofia and lost the only match she played, but with wins over players like Andrea Petkovic, Angelique Kerber and Ana Ivanovic over the last twelve months, she certainly has the talent to take out the big guns.

There's plenty star power in the men's draw too -- Roger Federer, my player of the year, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic all are coming off breakthrough seasons, but potential threats lurk even deeper in the draw. Alexandr Dolgopolov, whose own stellar 2014 was cut short by knee surgery in July, will be back in action -- he only won one match since his return in Tokyo last September, but it was over an always-tricky Gilles Simon, and he might finally be up for even bigger challenges now. And native son Lleyton Hewitt snatched this title from Fed last year -- he may be well off his career high ranking at #50 in the world, but he's one of those guys that never gives up. Perhaps the same can be said for compatriot Bernard Tomic, who briefly fell out of the top hundred last year after a second round loss at Wimbledon. He may not be at the top of his game these days, but he did manage a runner's-up finish in Sydney in 2014 -- admittedly one win short of his previous result -- and he shocked everyone with a title run in Bogota over the summer. Somehow, it seems, every time we write him off, he manages to pull off a big win.

Over in Chennai, Stan Wawrinka will look to reclaim the crown that launched him into the sport's elite, but players like 2014 standoutRoberto Bautista Agut and comeback kid David Goffin will be out to derail his plans. So will some of last year's most promising young guns -- Jiri Vesely had quite a strong start to last season, and Borna Coric who stunned Rafael Nadal last year in Basel, is just a hair out of the top hundred now and seems primed to climb much higher. But I'd like nothing more than to see Feliciano Lopez to make a big run here. The likely-second seed is coming off a banner 2014 season, reaching a career-high #14 ranking and notching wins over Nadal, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic -- he hasn't won a hardcourt title since 2010, but the thirty-three year old veteran has shown he has what it takes to put an end to that stretch.

More than a couple stars made their way out to Doha too -- defending champion Rafael Nadal and world #1 Novak Djokovic may headline, but a couple former top ten players could also make a stand. Fernando Verdasco finished 2014 at his lowest year-end ranking since 2006 and will look to turn things back around, and fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, playing his first event since pulling out of his French Open first round, could rack up a couple of much needed points to improve his #71 ranking before heading down to Melbourne. But also look out for Ernests Gulbis, whose shoulder injury kept him off the alternate list in London -- he really slowed down after his surprise semifinal appearance at Roland Garros, but he's got the kind of game that can really catch the favorites off guard, and it might just be the perfect time to show us exactly what he can do.

It's hard to say who'll ultimately come out on top this tennis season, but the good thing about each new year is that everyone starts off with a clean slate. Whether the old favorites continue their reigns or some upstarts make a push into the elite, we're certainly in for some great action over the coming months. And it all kicks off in just a few more days...

The Rebirth

I have to admit I was pretty impressed by the action we saw on the tennis courts last week.

Sure we still haven't hit the sweet spot of the summer hardcourt season and most of the sport's top athletes were not yet in action. But we saw more than a couple players carry success through from one week to the next, and a few players long missing from the winner's circle made triumphant returns to glory that could right their paths for the rest of the year.

Mona Barthel was one of the standouts of the 2012 season -- a qualifier in Hobart that year, she shocked four seeded players to claim her first career title and a year later she took out Marion Bartoli and Sara Errani in her trophy run at the Paris Indoors. She peaked at #23 in the world that March, but ended the season with four straight first round losses and fell out of the top eighty for most of this spring. It wasn't an easy road for her in Bastad either -- with all but one seed losing their opening matches, the young German upset just one favorite on her way to the final, but lost a set to qualifier Gabriela Dabrowski in her second round and had to come back from 2-4 down against Sylvia Soler-Espinosa in the semis. Against Chanelle Scheepers Sunday, another woman who'd been struggling before making the trip to Sweden, she was tested too, finding herself in a 3-5 hole in their second set. But Barthel was able to stay strong and ultimately closed out the match in straight sets, capturing her third career crown and reminding the field what she's capable of.

Bernard Tomic seems to have been missing from the spotlight a little longer. Once hailed as the Next Big Thing in the sport, he hadn't won more than two matches at any tournament since losing the Sydney final -- he'd won his only previous title there a year before -- and dropped out of the top hundred after a second round loss at Wimbledon, his lowest ranking in over three years. He was unseeded in Bogota, positioned behind little-known players like Alejandro Gonzalez and Victor Estrella Burgos, and just barely eked out a win over the latter in the semis, needing three tiebreaks and nearly three hours to score the win. He ran up against big-serving Ivo Karlovic on Sunday -- the Croat was playing his second final in as many weeks, and as the second seed was the on-paper favorite this time too -- but even without converting a break opportunity, Tomic was able to secure the win in tiebreaks. It was just his second career trophy, putting him a little behind expectations, but may have been just what the young Australian needed to kick him into gear.

Over in Istanbul another former champion -- albeit one who's got a little more hardware on her mantle -- took a huge step in putting herself back on the map. Caroline Wozniacki fell out of the top ten early this year and struggled with injury, etc., for most of the spring. She was somewhat redeemed by making the semis in Eastbourne and her fourth round showing at the All England Club, but she really proved she was back this past week at the reestablished Istanbul Cup. The top seed in Turkey, she opened with a double bagel against rising star Belinda Bencic, and though she dropped sets to early opponents, ultimately made her first final of the year with a straight set win over another of the year's standouts, Kristina Mladenovic. In the final against Roberta Vinci -- playing her second straight final despite her inauspiciousstart to the year -- she took control again, never dropping serve and taking five games off her challenger. It took just over an hour to win her twenty-second trophy, but after the year she's had, it sure seems like she put up an even bigger effort than that.

Things went down a little differently in Hamburg, where unseeded Leonardo Mayer was looking less for reawakening than for a first launch. The twenty-seven year old Argentine only made his first singles final in February and had spent most of the last five years in the low double-digit rankings. He did manage a win over world #16 Tommy Robredo in Viña Del Mar, but before last week -- even with a fourth round run at Wimbledon -- he was a whopping 0-16 against top ten players. He cracked that goose egg in Germany though -- after taking out tenth seed Guillermo Garcia Lopez, he battled past a couple young guns and earned the right to meet last year's French Open runner-up David Ferrer for the title. It didn't look like it would go his way at first -- the veteran Spaniard had ceded a total of three games in his quarter and semifinal matches and came back from breaks down to take the opening set on Sunday. But Mayer rebounded in grand style, finally scoring that elusive win over an elite player and taking home that all-important maiden trophy.

And while Mayer may have just broken the seal of tennis champions, he and the rest of this weekend's victors have all recaptured the feeling of being at the top of their game. And if they can keep it up there's no telling how much more success we'll see from them down the road.

Australian Open: 10 Things I Want to See

Every player comes to a Grand Slam with a couple goals -- whether it's to upset a top seed or to improve on their performance from last year, to make the second week or to win the whole darn thing. Of course not everyone can take home the trophy, especially with the Majors so heavily dominated by a select handful over the last couple years.

But that doesn't mean something short of victory is a failure, and there are plenty of things that could happen over the next two weeks that would make this a very successful and exciting time in Melbourne...even for the players who aren't ultimately crowned champions.

So I've decided to put together a list of things that I'm looking forward to this fortnight. Some are broad, some super specific, many are related, but importantly most of them are well inside the realm of possibility. And with the New Year bringing with it a whole slew of fresh possibilities for the season, there might be no better time to set expectations high.

And so without further adieu, and in no particular order, here's my Wish List for the 2014 Australian Open.

10. Half the seeds lose in the first round

"What a horrible thing to wish for! Seriously, what kind of person are you?"

Okay, calm down. It's not that I wish many any of the favorites harm, but let's face it -- it's kind of fun to watch an underdog come through. Whether you watched seventeen-year-old Victoria Duval stay tough against Sam Stosur at the U.S. Open last year or sat open-jawed as triple-digit-ranked Steve Darcis sent Rafael Nadal packing at Wimbledon, part of you was a little exhilarated by these upsets. No one cares when #98 beats #73 -- but when he beats someone in the top ten, heck someone in the top thirty, you sit up and take notice.

Of course if so many favorites lose early, it isn't all good for the unknowns -- having someone else clear the path for them can make others' ultimate victories less sweet -- but a breakout on such a big stage could really launch the seasons and careers of some next generation stars. The challenge would be for these players to keep up their momentum after the first few days unlike Duval, losing to Daniela Hantuchova in her second round, and Darcis who pulled out right after his historic win. After all if the second week in Melbourne ends up looking like a Challenger event, we should at least see Major-quality play in the back half of the tournament.

9. The Bad Boys make good

It's not unusual for players on the men's Tour -- or the women's for that matter -- to lose their tempers now and then, but usually the ones getting mad have already more than proven themselves on court. Meanwhile the most recent crop of upstarts carry some spotty records at best...some long runs of losses at worst...yet they seem entitled to all sorts of consideration nonetheless. It would be nice for some of them to prove they deserve it this time around.

Ryan Harrison's has long been hailed as the future of American men's tennis, but despite a couple semi showings at lesser tournaments over the years, he's made more headlines for his on court tantrums, receiving fines for racquet abuse and earning the nickname "Mr. Cranky Pants" from Mary Carillo. Bernard Tomic, once a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, has lost in or before the second round in six Majors since and last year lost his driver's license after a series of traffic infractions. And Donald Young's profanity-laced tirade against the USTA in 2011 is only surpassed in arrogance by the seventeen-match losing streak that followed. All of these guys, understandably, have seen their rankings fall -- sometimes precipitously -- from their highs when prospects were greatest.

Whether they are able to turn their luck around in Melbourne remains to be seen. Tomic managed wins over Marcel Granollers and Alexandr Dolgopolov on his way to the Sydney semis -- and may still go further. Harrison gained entry to that event with a win over eighth qualifying seed Alex Bogomolov, a fallen angel himself, but lost immediately after to Nicolas Mahut. And Donald Young, having reached the second round in Auckland, put up a fight but eventually lost there to three-time defending champion David Ferrer. But if any of them can muster the strength for a good showing and keep a positive attitude during it, they might just see their images get a boost along with their careers.

8. Vera Zvonareva wins a match (or more!)

I know I'm not the only one who's missed Bepa.

The former world #2 has only played one match since the 2012 Olympics, when a shoulder injury and subsequent surgery took her out of the game for seventeen months. She's been productive in the meantime, earning a second college degree and all, but her return to the court was less than spectacular -- cursed with an unfortunate opener against top seed and eventual winner Na Li in Shenzhen, she put up a fight in the first set but eventually lost in straights.

The former world #2 -- a semifinalist in 2011 and a doubles titleist a year later -- makes her return to Grand Slam play with a protected ranking, but with so little match action leading up to the even, is far from a favorite. Still the often-volatile Russian has the kind of talent even those in the top twenty crave -- she stunned three higher-ranked players on her way to the Wimbledon final three-plus years ago, and despite a colossal meltdown in her Major championship debut, pulled herself together and repeated the feat in New York a few months later. She also successfully exacted revenge on her vanquishers, beating that year's U.S. Open champ Kim Clijsters at the year-ending event and Serena Williams a few months later in Eastbourne.

Without a seeding it's very possible that Vera gets dealt a difficult, if not impossible, hand in Melbourne, so I'm not holding out a lot of hope. But if anyone's going to be a spoiler in the women's draw, my money's on her. And if she gets her confidence up early, there's no telling where she'd go from there.

7. A qualifier or wildcard reaches the semis

Hey, it's happened before. Then-#86 Alexandra Stevenson won eight matches in a row before losing to Lindsay Davenport in the 1999 Wimbledon semis, and once-unknown John McEnroe did the same twenty-two years earlier, eventually dropping to career rival Jimmy Connors.

More recently we've only had some close calls. David Goffin was ranked #109 in the world when he made the French Open fourth round a few years back, and on-the-rebound Kaia Kanepi was match points shy of the semis at Wimbledon 2010. It would be nice if we saw someone finally make a breakthrough in 2013.

So who are the contenders for this honor? Goffin has another opportunity to make a mark -- he's the third seed in the qualifying bracket -- but perhaps a better chance lies with Martin Klizan. The twenty-four year old Slovak was ranked in the top thirty less than a year ago, and though he failed to defend his title in St. Petersburg, he might be able to mount a comeback now. And British breakthrough Heather Watson has stumbled a bit since making the third round her last year, but the recent top-forty player has scored some big wins in the past and could be a spoiler this time too.

There's also plenty of talent among the wildcards. Jarmila Gajdosova was once ranked in the top twenty-five, but surprisingly has never won a singles match at her home Slam. And teenager Ashleigh Barty (and her partner veteran Casey Dellacqua) played in three Major doubles finals last year -- the rising star might just be ready to launch a career on her own this year. Meanwhile James Duckworth has yet to make a big statement since leaving the junior circuit, but now the twenty-one year old is the right age to do something big. It's not all about the Aussies, though -- American Steve Johnson secured his spot in Melbourne with a U.S. Playoff win. He's already made a third round in New York, and just this week scored a huge win over world #20 Kevin Anderson in Auckland. If he keeps up his game, it could just be his turn to make a statement on a global stage.

6. A Cinderella follows through

It's not enough for a player to have one great performance, of course -- they need to prove it was not a fluke and continue performing in the months and years to come. In the extreme, Rafael Nadal exploded at the 2005 French Open as a relatively unknown #5 seed and went on to become arguably the best clay courter of all time. But even Angelique Kerber, ranked #92 in the world when she made the U.S. Open semis in 2011, has also reached the quarters in Paris and the final four at Wimbledon and has spent the last eighteen months or so in the top ten.

This year more than a few have a chance to show they're no one-hit wonders. Flavia Pennetta, not long ago ranked in single digits, didn't exactly come out of nowhere last year, but the thirty-one year old veteran did reach her first career Slam semi in New York with wins over countrywomen Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci. She only won one match the rest of the season, though, and despite having climbed back up into seeding territory for the Australian Open, she still has something to prove. It's a tall order, but I'd like to see her make at least the fourth round, maybe even a quarterfinal, and if she gets a good draw, she might just do it.

Then there's Jerzy Janowicz, the surprise finalist at the Paris Masters in 2012 who made his way to the semis at Wimbledon a few months later. Problem is, his magical run at the All England Club only claimed one top-twenty player as a victim. His biggest win since then was over world #34 Julien Benneteau in Montreal, and he lost his season opener in Sydney to Alexandr Dolgopolov. He's made his way to seeding at the Open this year, so expectations will be high for his second main draw appearance Down Under, but he's got the talent that can easily get him to the quarters or better.

Both these athletes have a little time however, to deliver -- it'll be months before their Cinderella points come off their rankings. Meanwhile Elena Vesnina, then fresh off her first career title in Hobart, matched her deepest Major run with a fourth round showing last year. She scored a couple other big wins during the season -- Na Li in Eastbourne, Kerber in New Haven -- but could lose a bunch of ground if she doesn't repeat. And Jeremy Chardy, the only unseeded man to make the quarters, has more to defend here than he picked up at all of last year's Masters events combined. He did make the semi in Brisbane though, even taking a set off Roger Federer, but the pressure's only going to build from here. And of course there's Sloane Stephens, the stunner in Australia last year. She's a stone's throw away from the top ten, but a wrist injury forced her out of Sydney this week, so her prospects are questionable. Still, she might just be the U.S.'s best hope for a NextGen star.

Which brings me to my next wish...

5. A young American steps up

This has been a dream of (U.S.-based) pundits for a long time. Yes, we have Serena and Venus Williams, but since Andy Roddick retired a few years back, we have no active American man holding a Grand Slam title. Maybe this is the year that happens.

The best hopes lie with John Isner and Sam Querrey, of course, as they have for several years. But while both have done a fair amount of legwork in the top twenty, with two-time Masters finalist Isner even peaking in the single-digits, they only have one Major quarterfinal between them. And neither is all that young anymore -- at twenty-six, Querrey is older than any man who's won his first Slam since Albert Costa in 2002. I hate to say it, but even with so many top-hundred players in their thirties, these men's best shot may be behind them.

That's not to say all is lost for the Americans. Eyes will be on the likes of Donald Young, Ryan Harrison and Steve Johnson, of course, but let's not forget some others. Tim Smyczek is just off his career high ranking and a third round run at the U.S. Open; he's also scored wins over Jurgen Melzer, Fernando Verdasco and Kei Nishikori in his short career. And Jack Sock, a Junior champion in New York, has already captured a mixed doubles championship as an adult. This would be his first main draw in Melbourne and it would be great to see him take advantage of that.

Perhaps the better shot for the U.S., though, lies with the ladies. Sloane Stephens made a case for herself as the new face of American women's tennis, but others have just a good a shot at carrying the flag. Twenty-four year old Jamie Hampton worked her way to the fourth round at Roland Garros, easily the worst venue for her compatriots in recent years, beat Aga Radwanska on the way to the Eastbourne final and opened 2014 with a quarterfinal win in Auckland. And Madison Keys hasn't reached the same heights quite yet, but she did reach third rounds in two Majors last season and notched wins over top players like Dominika Cibulkova and Na Li. Even more off the radar, Alison Riske put up quite a fight against eventual Auckland champion Ana Ivanovic in the first round last week and beat former world #13 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova on her way to the Hobart quarters. Any of them could cement their careers this fortnight.

4. A Junior becomes an adult

Many of the youngsters discussed in the last section could be re-classified here, but there is a more global lack of success among teenagers these days. Remember when Monica Seles, Jennifer Capriati and Martina Hingis were setting one "youngest ever" record after another? Well, we don't see much of that these days. In fact, fourteen women and thirty men ranked in the top hundred of their respective circuits are in their thirties, and none of the ATP's athletes are in their teens. But there are a couple "kids" out there who could make an impact.

Grigor Dimitrov, dubbed "Baby Fed" years ago, won the Boys' Wimbledon and U.S. Open titles in 2008, but didn't break into double digits until three years later. He did start to gain traction last season, though, stunning Novak Djokovic in Madrid and claiming his first Tour title in Stockholm by taking down world #3 David Ferrer in the final. The Bulgarian hasn't ever put up a big fight at a Major -- his best result yet was a third round at last year's French Open -- but this could be his chance to really break through. With three wins over top ten players in the last twelve months, he's proven he can hit with the best in the sport -- now he just needs to do it on a big stage.

Simona Halep, the 2008 Girls' champion at Roland Garros, has had a little more luck at the Majors, beating then-French Open champ Na Li in New York in 2011 and reaching the fourth round there last year. The young Romanian made the semis in Rome in May and then won three straight non-Slam titles over the summer -- she tacked on number four in New Haven. She's now #11 in the world and poised to go even higher -- a run deep into the second week would vault her straight into that realm.

3. Someone outside the top ten wins the title

It happens from time to time -- Marion Bartoli did it not that long ago -- but not very often. And with a handful of players combining to win the majority of Majors over the last decade, chances for someone else -- even someone in the high single digits -- to break through the ceiling are slim. Still, it's certainly possible for the draws to open up or for an underdog to find his or her stride. Isner could do it, so may Halep, but so might a few others.

Milos Raonic had his first taste of the big leagues in Melbourne a few years back and has since picked up five titles and climbed to eleventh in the world. The young Canadian still hasn't passed the fourth round of a Major despite a big serve and some serious court smarts, but with twelve wins over top ten players in his short career, he's one of those seeds that not even the favorites want to see in their section of the draw. And 2009 semifinalist Fernando Verdasco was on the verge of playing for the championship that year. He's fallen a bit out of favor since then, but a run to the Wimbledon quarters -- where he took eventual champion Andy Murray to five sets -- proves he's not yet ready to slink away. He's ranked just outside the top thirty, so it certainly won't be easy, but he's the kind of player that might just sneak under the radar.

Ana Ivanovic knows what it likes to play in the final here. The former world #1 reached the championship match in 2008, one Slam before winning the French Open. It's been a long road back for the Serb -- after a handful of titles at the turn of the decade, she struggled to close the deal for two straight years. But she's coming straight off a trophy in Auckland, beating seven-time Major winner for it, and could be ready to play for an even bigger crown. Meanwhile largely unknown Carla Suarrez Navarro is still looking for her first career title -- she's lost all five finals she's played, all on clay -- but she made her first big statement here five years ago with a win over then-#6 Venus. Last year she beat Angelique Kerber in New York and finally cracked the top twenty. Objectively she stands a better shot of winning the French Open as a low seed, but she's surprised us all here before and might just do it again.

2. Juan Martin Del Potro makes the final (or better!)

DelPo was ranked #6 when he stunned Roger Federer -- and, frankly, the whole tennis world -- at the 2009 U.S. Open...now he's back in the top five. He won four titles in 2013, reached his first Slam semi since then, and scored wins over every player in the top six. He's already reached the semifinal in Sydney, and as long as he stays healthy he looks primed to take that title too.

That is, of course, always the concern for the big guy. The six-foot-six Argentine has suffered multiple injuries through the years -- his thigh, his wrist, his shoulder -- and with no rest between a likely four match win streak and the first Major of the year, he does risk exhaustion in the coming weeks, especially now that he'll be playing best-of-five. But despite his ground breaking run four years ago, many pundits only consider the big four real contenders at the Slams, and Del Potro, with fourteen career wins against Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Federer -- eight since making his big comeback in 2011, should be out to prove them wrong. He's made the quarterfinals in Melbourne twice, but this could be the year he surpasses that, and maybe -- hopefully -- goes all the way.

1. Victoria Azarenka beats Serena

Like pretty much every player in the field -- in history, in fact -- Vika has an abysmal on-paper record against the world #1. But there was a time, way back when, that Azarenka nearly beat her here in Melbourne. And her three victories have come on pretty big stages. She's even taken a set off Williams in the last two Slam finals they've played and comes Down Under as a two-time defending champion. Still, the young Belorussian has never managed victory over her rival at a Major, where Serena so often plays at a whole other level.

It's time for her to change that.

Of course, as the top two seeds at the Open, for them to meet, it will have to be in the final and it would mean Vika scores the elusive three-peat -- something no woman has done in Australia for fourteen years -- which kind of goes against my general "new storyline" theme. But it seems she's the one young star out there that has the most potential to really fill up her trophy case. She might as well get a jump on it now.

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Wow, is it strange to have gotten through a whole Grand Slam preview piece without spilling digital ink on three-time defending champion Novak Djokovic, world #1 Rafael Nadal or 2008 winner Maria Sharapova?

Fear not -- I'll get to the favorites and the rest of the field in my blogcast over the weekend.

In the meantime, let me know what you're hoping to see at this year's Australian Open. At the start of the year, when anything can still happen, there may be no better time to reach for the stars.