We may have only two weeks' worth of play in the books this tennis season, but just days before the start of the 2015 Australian Open there's already plenty to talk about.
As always the favorites will be out in full force at the year's first Major, but they're not the only ones who could make an impact Down Under. Some might be under-the-radar seeds, others might be huge underdogs, but a couple have a real shot at making a big statement in Melbourne. These players might not
ultimately qualify as
Cinderellas -- their campaigns in Australia may just consist of one or two big wins -- but they still could warrant a little extra attention. After all, just one match could upset the entire balance of either draw, and any performance might set the stage for what we see on Tour all year long.
So let's check out the ladies and gents who might just cause a stir at the Happy Slam.
The Women
Lucie Safarova
I know I've mentioned it before, but it bears repeating -- Safarova was the
only person to take a set off eventual
champion Na Li in Melbourne last year, even holding match point in the second set. And rather than fold under the disappointment like
others might have, the under-appreciated Czech went on the make the
semis in Wimbledon and climbed to a career high #14 ranking after the U.S. Open. Safarova began the New Year in
style too -- after stunning then-world #6 Genie Bouchard in Perth, she just barely lost to Serena Williams in her second round robin. This past week in Sydney she notched a somewhat surprising loss to Sam Stosur in the first round -- she had previously held a dominant 9-2 record against the former
New York winner -- but might actually benefit from the week off before her next match. She's slated to meet Brisbane
champ Maria Sharapova in the fourth round, and could need all the rest she can get for that.
Karolina Pliskova
The 2010 Junior champion in Melbourne has done a little better than her twin since hitting the women's Tour -- sister Krystina took the Girls' title in Wimbledon the same year, but has so far only peaked at #86 in singles. But after claiming her first crown in Kuala Lumpur two years ago, Karolina reached five finals in
2014, picking up titles in Seoul and Linz. More impressive, though, were wins over Angelique Kerber in Nürnberg, Sam Stosur in Wuhan and Ana Ivanovic at the U.S. Open. Pliskova has yet to make much of a dent at the Majors -- her best result so far was that third-round showing in New York last year. But to kick off the new season, she endured a three-plus hour marathon against
two-
time Aussie champ Victoria Azarenka in Brisbane, saving match points to get the win. And following upsets of Carla Suarez Navarro and Angelique Kerber this week in Sydney, she pushed Petra Kvitova through two tiebreaks in the championship match. She'll carry a middle-of-the-road #22 seed in Melbourne, but could far outperform expectations. With Ana Ivanovic and Simona Halep in her quarter, she certainly has the opportunity to punch a huge hole or two in the draw.
Timea Bacsinszky
Melbourne hasn't traditionally been a great place for the Swiss Miss -- she's only won one main draw match in three appearances Down Under -- but something tells me that's about to change. After years of struggling with injury and seeing her ranking fall out of the top two hundred at the start of 2013, she slugged it out on the ITF circuit and endured qualifying rounds for both the French Open and Wimbledon last year. As the season was winding down, she managed to pull off one of the most surprising
upsets of the year, stunning Maria Sharapova in straight sets in Wuhan. Now back in the top fifty, she continued her momentum into 2015 -- last week in
Shenzhen, she handily defeated Petra Kvitova, reaching her first final in over four years. She'll be challenged from the outset in Melbourne -- her first round opponent is former world #1 Jelena Jankovic -- but the fifteenth seeded Serb has been relatively quiet recently and lost her opener in Brisbane to start the year. If Bacsinszky can take advantage of any weakness on JJ's part there's no reason she can't pull off the win.
Heather Watson
The top British woman has fallen a bit since her
breakthrough 2012, the one which brought her maiden WTA title in
Osaka -- after a promising start to the next year, illness took her out of the game for a few months and she couldn't win back to back matches for the balance of 2013. Even with some solid wins last year -- she beat Flavia
Pennetta in Eastbourne and Dominika
Cibulkova in Montréal -- she closed out the season with just one main draw win and began this year ranked just inside the top fifty. Things seem back on track this year though -- after just one win during her Hopman Cup round robins, she scored wins over three seeded players on her way to the Hobart final, which she'll contest against qualifier Madison Brengle on Saturday. She was dealt a tough section in Melbourne, opening against surprise Sydney semifinalist Tsvetana Pironkova and slated for a second round against Cibulkova. But these are certainly winnable matches, and in a quarter where plenty of players could wear each other out early, Watson might just be the one able to sneak through.
Kurumi Nara
It's easy to have missed Nara over the last few months -- the teeny, five-foot-one woman from Japan hasn't scored too many high-profile wins, but she's still chugged away on Tour, taking a set off Svetlana Kuznetsova in the
Washington final and even picking up her maiden WTA title in Rio last February. This past week in Hobart she rebounded after being bagelled in her opening set by Klara Koukalova, dropping just three games after that, and then took out third seed Camila Giorgi to make the semis. In her first trip to the Australian Open last year, she made her way to the third round, only losing two games in her early matches, and she'll look to improve on that in 2015. She faces a tough task early, though -- to start she'll square off against Aga Radwanska, probably still riding high off her defeat of Serena Williams in
Perth -- but if she's able to overcome that hurdle there aren't too many more threats in her immediate path. And while she might not be ready to claim a title here anytime soon, she could certainly clear the way for those who might hope to do just that.
Kevin Anderson
The big-serving South African has hovered among the lower-seeds at Majors for a while, but his three fourth-round showings last year marked his most successful Slam season to date. It's been a while since he last won a title, but he has made
five finals in the last two years. And more impressively he started to gain some traction against the sport's top players in 2014 -- he was 3-0 against Aussie
champ Stan Wawrinka -- and climbed to a career high #16 in the world to end the year. This past week in Auckland, at an event marred by the withdrawals of David Ferrer and Tommy Robredo and early losses by Ernests Gulbis and Roberto Bautista Agut, he was the only seed to survive until the semis, and though he eventually lost to
rising star Jiri Vesely, he might have an advantage when facing a best-of-five situation. He opens his Melbourne campaign against 2014 Challenger Tour champion Diego Schwartzman, who will certainly put up a fight, but outside that Anderson seems to have a pretty easy draw, and he could just be ready to take advantage of that.
Ivo Karlovic
Also in the power-server camp is the veteran Croat, who has already fired off ninety-seven aces this year, climbing to the #2 spot on the all-time list. He's slashed his ranking over the past twelve months, reaching to his highest position since 2009, and made the final at
four events in 2014 while beating players like Grigor
Dimitrov at Roland Garros and U.S. Open
champ Marin Cilic in Shanghai. He started the new season off strong too -- a low seventh seed in Doha last week, he stunned world #1 Novak Djokovic in the quarters, denying the heavy favorite a single break opportunity, and then pushed ultimate
champion David Ferrer to three tiebreak sets in the semis. In Australia he's in the same quarter as Roger Federer and Andy Murray, but his first test will likely be in a second round match-up against
wunderkind Nick Kyrgios. The two have never faced off before, but I have a feeling their first meeting could be quite a nail-bitter.
Viktor Troicki
About three-and-a-half years ago Troicki was ranked #12 in the world, but after a year-long doping ban kept him off the courts until the middle of last year, he fell into the
eight hundreds. He had some nice results last fall, though, and
climbed back up the rankings with wins over Mikhail Youzhny in Beijing and David Ferrer in
Shenzhen. Though he fell just short of qualifying for Brisbane, he did make the cut in Sydney and opened with a win over Martin Klizan on his way to the final. He'll face off against on-paper favorite Mikhail Kukushkin for the title, but despite the Kazakh's wins over Juan Martin Del Potro and fifth seed Leonardo Mayer and his #66 position -- Troicki is just inside the top hundred right now, but surely going higher -- I might give the Serb the edge. It'll get tougher in Melbourne, of course -- looking for his first win at the Australian Open since 2012, he'll start against Auckland finalist Jiri Vesely, a
boy man who's pulled off his own crop of
upsets over the past year. With both men coming off a long week, this could be an ugly match, but whoever has the stamina to come out on top might be able to cause even more damage down the road.
Lucas Pouille
I
told you guys to look out for the young Frenchman last year, didn't I? Still way under the radar, the qualifier at the Paris Masters got wins over Ivo Karlovic and Fabio Fognini during his run. This week in Auckland he rode a lucky loser's ticket all the way to the semis, taking a set off Adrian Mannarino before ultimately losing the match. Still ranked significantly outside the top hundred, he needed a wildcard entry to make a second trip to Melbourne and drew a pretty tough bracket -- he meets nineteenth seed Gael Monfils in his first round and the winner of a big-serving battle between Juan Martin Del Potro and Jerzy Janowicz in the second. Neither are particularly comforting prospects, but if he can go the distance versus his compatriot he could also take advantage of a tuckered out opponent a match later. Of course a lot of ducks have to fall into a very specific row, but at the very least Pouille has a shot at exhausting some big threats in the draw.
Aljaz Bedene
Most casual fans probably have never heard of the twenty-five year old Slovenian who topped out at #71 in the world a few years back. Now ranked in triple digits, he fought through qualifying rounds in Chennai and then stunned second seed Feliciano
Lopez in straight sets. He didn't stop there, either -- he scored wins over two more heavily favored Spaniards, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Robert Bautista
Agut on the way to his first ever Tour final. He
ultimately lost to Stan Wawrinka, but certainly proved he has what it takes to hang out with the top guys. Hopefully he'll get the chance to do that in Melbourne -- he's already won his first two qualifying matches and will meet Michal Przysiezny for a spot in the main draw on Saturday. And if he gets placed in a friendly part of the bracket, he could ride his momentum to the first Major match wins of his career.
Of course I've only started to scrape the surface of players who might grab headlines this year in Melbourne. Be sure to check back this weekend for a full preview of everything you should expect at the 2015 Australian Open -- and maybe some of the things you shouldn't.
Statistics certainly have the ability to skew our perception, and they don't always tell the true story of how a battle was fought. And all you have to do is look at a couple matches at this year's Australian Open. There are some simple incongruities -- David Nalbandian and Lleyton Hewitt actually scored an equal number of points in their almost-five hour slugfest, while Ivo Karlovic again found a way to lose a match when out-acing his opponent, forty-eight to ten. But it can get more complicated than that. 
Robin Haase didn't last quite as long, but for the first half against veteran Andy Roddick, you might have thought you were witnessing an upset. The twenty-three year old Dutchman took control early, trapping his opponent at the net and allowing no break chances in the opening set. He won nearly eighty percent of his first serves and about half of Andy's. In the second he kept it close -- the two were equal on both winners and errors, and neither made a dent on the other's serve. When Roddick won that in a tiebreak, though, it was all over for Haase, and he dropped the next two sets in about an hour. 
But it was Sveta who came out firing this time. Though she made slightly fewer errors and a handful more winners, she was cleaner when it counted. She stayed strong after losing a break-lead in the second set and after failing to serve it out. She saved set points and withstood faster serves, and after two hours, Kuznetsova was the one left standing. Maybe she is heading for the #1 ranking...
He's only gotten better since then, of course. Consistently one of the biggest servers on the circuit, he's been developing his all-court game in the past three years, becoming more comfortable at the net, throwing in some drop shots, and learning how to react when his opponent actually gets a ball back in play. He is certainly fit -- how many others could survive a three-day, eleven-hour slugfest? -- and is able to handle pressure situations -- he's saved sixty-seven percent of the break points he's faced this year, ninth best amongst the pros.
He's also got to rely on more than just his ability to ace. We're not in college anymore, and the guys on the other side of the net are going to eventually get their racquets on the ball. After all, the fact that Isner has saved so many break points also means he's faced that many more. Luckily, though, he has certainly been improving on this front -- one big plus for Isner's game is the amount of time he's spending on the doubles court, and that's certainly helped him think and react more quickly. He cracked the top thirty this year and won his second title in that discipline with Querrey in Memphis. He even made the finals in Rome on a surface on which Americans so traditionally don't excel. And after his mini-marathon in the Atlanta semis, he got right back on court and suffered the narrowest of defeats to the eventual doubles champions with James Blake.
In Kuala Lumpur the story was all Russia's Alisa Kleybanova. The twenty-year-old had climbed into the top thirty last year with wins over player like Jelena Jankovic and Venus and even took a set from Justine Henin at the Australian Open. 
This year, though, he's been on his own roll, beating two higher-ranked players in Melbourne and making the semis last week in Memphis. And today in Florida Ernests withstood fourteen aces from the more-experienced veteran and still managed to break him four times. And after two sets the twenty-one-year-old was also the victor in his first career final. 
For some reason, the six-foot-ten Dr. Ivo hasn't really been able to capitalize on that otherwise imposing statistic. Even winning eighty-four percent of his first serves today (only seventeen points did not result from an ace), he wasn't able to break Germany's Benjamin Becker. He made it through, eventually, in a little less than a hundred minutes, but this was not the first time this has happened -- a few weeks back in his hometown of Zagreb, Karlovic got by Alexandre Sidorenko in two tight tiebreaks, unable to convert on any of his nine break chances. 
Lleyton Hewitt fell out of the top 100 for a brief time in February -- the first time he'd hit double digits since the turn of the decade. Recovering from a hip injury, the Australian lost in the first round of his hometown Grand Slam, but proved to be a formidable threat to seeded players in tournaments after that. He won his first title in over two years by beating Wayne Odesnik in Houston and narrowly missed the semis at Wimbledon after a nearly four-hour match with Andy Roddick. While he had some trouble cracking the most elite players, he did notch a tough win over James Blake, back when he was ranked #13, and a straight-set victory over DelPo at the All England club. For his efforts, he rose forty-five spots to end the year at #22.
Rajeev Ram is also doing his part for American men's tennis. Along with his second Challenger title, the Indiana native won both the singles and doubles trophies in Newport. After a career of playing players mostly ranked in the triple-digits, Rajeev broke through this year, beating Sam Querrey and Mardy Fish among others. His successes allowed him to jump one more position than even Isner as he finished the year #79.
I have to say I'm a bit surprised that Russia's Dmitry Tursunov didn't have a better year. Once ranked #20 he had a slow start to the year, getting upset in more than a few first rounds. Last year's finalist in Indianapolis, Tursunov fought to the title in Eastborne, the sixth of his career. He made the quarters in Indy, but despite a good seeding and a few bye rounds, he proceeded to lose four matches in a row, ending 2009 after a four set loss to Marc Gicquel at the U.S. Open. His recent results caused him to fall farther than anyone else in the top hundred -- from #22 to #89.
It's a little unfair to put 6'10" Croat Ivo Karlovic in this group, since he was part of so many classic matches this year, but for a man who served 890 aces this year -- more than a hundred more than any other player -- he sure lost a lot of matches. That's not to say he didn't put up a fight -- he famously fired off a record fifty-five bombs in his first round in Paris only to lose to Hewitt, and he spent nearly six hours on court with Radek Stepanek in the Davis Cup semis. He's played an inordinate number of five-set matches this year -- and only won one of them. Though he got himself close to the top twenty, he's only had a single match victory since Cincinnati, where he lost in the second round. Now ranked thirty-seventh in the world, Karlovic has to show he's got more than a big serve, as he's already proven that's not enough to win. 