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Showing posts with label Elena Dementieva. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elena Dementieva. Show all posts

December 10, 2010

Year in Review: The Best Ladies' Matches

When you look back at women's tennis in 2010, what do you remember most? Francesca Schiavone hoisting her first Grand Slam trophy at twenty-nine years old? Serena passing Billie Jean on the all-time Major winners' list? Elena retiring from the sport in a tearful ceremony in Doha? Caroline Wozniacki securing the year-end #1 on the back of six titles this season?

Yes, all those events rank highly in my book, but ultimately it's the matches that make tennis, and the ladies all certainly put on a show for us this year. It wasn't just the stars, either -- a couple fresh faces found the moxie to make their own statements too. Some have followed through, others have faded to the background. But all have made us stand up and cheer during their matches, and, perhaps more importantly, they've shown us just how hard girls can hit.

So this year I'm paying tribute to the matches I've found most exciting, memorable, or downright inspiring. I was pleasantly surprised by the amount of material I had to draw from, and quickly realized I couldn't possibly limit myself to my originally intended five matches. So I've divided my reviews into two parts -- one for the Majors and another for everything else. And as always, I'll start with the ladies' Tour.



Medibank International, Sydney, Final
Elena Dementieva d. Serena Williams: 6-3, 6-2

The year had just begun and we still had no idea what 2010 would bring us. Still this rematch of what was, hands down, the most exciting three sets of 2009 promised to be a nail-biter. Each woman had lost just a set on the way to the championship match, Serena to then-soaring Aravane Rezai and the defending champ to Daniela Hantuchova in the second round. And, head-to-head, the two had compiled a surprisingly close 7-5 career record, slightly favoring the top seed, but Dementieva had won five of their last eight prior meetings.



It was a huge win for Dementieva who not only avenged that Wimbledon loss, but also put herself back on the map for Australia. Of course, she was famously handed a ridiculous draw in Melbourne, but a subsequent title in Paris somewhat made up for it. We wouldn't know until much later in the year just how important the win was.



Sony Ericsson Open, Miami, Fourth Round
Venus Williams d. Daniela Hantuchova: 1-6, 7-5, 6-4

Commentators didn't give twenty-fifth ranked Daniela Hantuchova a chance in this match. After all her opponent was riding a twelve-match win streak and had beaten her in their last nine meetings, ceding only one set at the 2002 Australian Open. But the pretty Slovakian came out swinging, smacking angles and holding Venus to thirty percent on her first serve in the opening set. She got off to a 4-0 lead before Williams got on the board, converting all three of her break opportunities, and even got a lead in the second set.

But then Venus found her serve -- she won eighty-six percent of her first attempts and four games in a row. It looked like, as so often happens, she was about to run away with the match. But Daniela didn't give up -- she got back on serve and almost forced a tiebreak. And when she failed to close it out, again I feared Venus would trounce her in the third. But I was surprised. Daniela rallied after getting down a break early and saved a couple match points when serving at 4-5 before Venus eventually sealed the win. The seven-time Grand Slam champion demonstrated exactly what has made her a staple among the elite for over a decade, finding her best shots when facing adversity.

While the result was as expected -- though it took a little longer to get there -- what made this match so great was the wherewithal of both players. Hantuchova walking on court like she knew she could win and Venus surviving a monstrous first set to pull out the ultimate victory. Neither woman gave up, neither showed signs of defeat as some of their counterparts so often do, and, when they needed to, they both pulled off some amazing shots. I was encouraged to see Daniela show she can at least keep up with the top players, and though she only posted middling results for the rest of the year, she did notch wins over Marion Bartoli, Yanina Wickmayer and Jelena Jankovic, before making the semis in Bali.

Venus, of course, reached the finals in Miami, losing quickly to Kim Clijsters in straight sets, though a nagging injury kept her out of any non-Major tournaments the rest of the year. But that was just enough time to make another mark on my list -- it's coming soon, I promise.



Bank of the West Classic, Stanford, California, Final
Victoria Azarenka d. Maria Sharapova: 6-4, 6-1

This year had been a tale of resurrection for both Vika and Maria. A handful of injuries had caused the Belarusian to pull out of matches all spring, and Sharapova was steadily working her way back to top-ten status. Both had staged a series of upsets -- and a series of comebacks -- to make the finals in Stanford, and both started the match going all out for the title.

Maria was the favorite, clearly -- the former #1 and three-time Grand Slam winner had won two of their three previous meetings and already claimed two titles this year. Azarenka, on the other hand, had gone more than fifteen months since her last big win, and her roller coaster year put her chances in question. But she'd pulled off a stunning comeback against defending champion Marion Bartoli in the quarters and absolutely demolished a tough Sam Stosur in the semis. And she'd had a bit more rest than Maria, who finished off her semifinal match against Aggie Radwanska late Saturday night.

The final began with some strong -- and loud -- hitting on both sides of the net, as should be expected. Azarenka broke Maria early but gave it back a few games later. They continued to trade off service games throughout that opener, with amazingly powerful shots expertly executed by both ladies. It took about an hour, but ultimately it was Azarenka, who'd turned twenty-one just the day before, who ran off with an early lead.

The second set wasn't nearly so close. Apparently the fatigue of two late-night, three-set matches finally caught up with Maria, and after putting up more than a valiant fight early, she couldn't handle any more. She held serve on her first game, but eventually Sharapova succumbed to a slew of winners by her opponent that never allowed her to get back in the match. Within thirty minutes Vika's hard-hitting eventually earned her a solid win and reminded us all how much of a force she is on the hard court.

Sharapova rebounded well to make the finals in Cincinnati a few weeks later, but injury kept her from making much of a dent later in the season. Azarenka, meanwhile, made the semis in Montreal and rebounded from that scare in New York to take the title in Moscow and qualify for the Tour Championships in Doha. Though her 2-1 record there wasn't enough to advance to the semis, she ended the year on a positive note I think she should be able to carry with her to the 2011 Slam season.



Pilot Pen Tennis, New Haven, Connecticut, Semifinal
Caroline Wozniacki d. Elena Dementieva: 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(5)

With the U.S. Open a weekend away, the action in New Haven was a little more exciting than it had been the last couple of years. Four players technically ranked in the top ten had entered the draw either outright or as wildcards as they tried to get in just a bit more match play before the year's last Major.

For two-time defending champion Caroline Wozniacki, there was a lot riding on her performance at the Pilot Pen. The runner-up at the U.S. Open in 2009, she had earned the top seed in New York this year when then-#1 Serena Williams pulled out with a nagging foot injury. There had been a lot of criticism around that choice, with plenty of pundits claiming the twenty-year-old should not have been granted the position. But already having won titles in Copenhagen and Montreal earlier in the month, the Dane had done all she could to prove her worth.

In the New Haven semis she was pitted against my personal favorite, Elena Dementieva, a consistent baseliner with an intimidating return game. The Russian had missed a few months of play over the summer after a leg injury forced her to retire from the French Open, and had recently dropped out of the top ten for the first time in years. But she survived two tough rounds at Yale before running into sweet Caroline, and when she rolled through the first set, I thought she had it in the bag.

Caro evened the score by taking the second, but it was the third which really made things interesting. Dementieva got ahead early and had a chance in the fifth game to take a two-break advantage. She came within two points of the win and even had the match on her racquet before Wozniacki rallied for her only break of the final set. Then when Caroline found herself with three match points at 6-5, it was the Russian who came up with the big serves. After two-plus hours of aggressive, thoughtful, no-holds-barred counterpunching -- this ain't your mama's tennis, kids -- neither showed signs of letting up. In the tiebreak Elena got off to a fast start, but Caro got it even and kept it close until the end, finally winning by a score of 109 total points to 108.



Wozniacki did go on to three-peat in New Haven, and though she didn't win the U.S. Open, two trophies in the fall did eventually seal in the year-end #1 for her. Dementieva, on the other hand, suffered a couple more close defeats before qualifying for the Tour championships for the tenth time in her career. But it sure was nice to see she went out swinging her hardest, just as she had done for the better part of the decade.



Commonwealth Bank Tournament of Champions, Bali, Final
Ana Ivanovic d. Alisa Kleybanova: 6-2, 7-6(5)

It's no big news that Ivanovic had been using this as a rebuilding year -- having dropped out of the top fifty, she'd staged a couple mini-rallies throughout the year, making the semis in Rome and Cincinnati before finally ending a two-year title drought in Linz. After working her way back up to #24 in the world, she didn't deliver quite enough to qualify for Doha, but managed entry into Bali, where she was just out of seeding territory. The girl who won only three matches in the second half of last year seemed decidedly determined to reverse that trend in 2010. She crushed teen queen Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the first round, ceding only a game, and survived a squeaker against fan favorite Kimiko Date Krumm in the semis.

Against Alisa Kleybanova in the finals, things were close to start, but Ana eventually ran away with the first set. Though she lost serve to begin the second, she was able to fight back to even and saved break points several games later. Solid serving and powerful groundstrokes got Ivanovic to a tiebreak, one in which she never gave up the lead. Under quite unlikely circumstances, she walked away with her second title of the year and climbed back into the top twenty.

Of course, the win is great for Ana's momentum as we approach 2011, but it also illustrates just how fickle this sport can be. Given the right training, a renewed dedication, and clearly some talent, you really never can count a player out. Kind of makes you wonder who else could launch a comeback next year, doesn't it?



And that's less than half of it! You guys tweeted me some great contenders which just missed the list, including Jelena Jankovic's defeat of Serena Williams in the Rome semis and Venus beating Vika in the Dubai finals way back in February. Trust me, it was hard to leave any of them off the list!

I have to hand it to the ladies -- they really brought it in 2010, whether or not the big trophies were on the line. And that sure gives me hope for the quality of play we'll see in the coming months.

Be sure to check back next week when I'll bring you my top non-Slam men's matches of the year. And the Majors are coming too -- believe me, there was a lot to get through!

October 31, 2010

One, Two, Three?

When the next WTA rankings come out on Monday, as we now know, there will be a new world order.

Caroline Wozniacki, the most prolific woman on Tour this year, will be atop the polls, ahead of two-time Grand Slam finalist Vera Zvonareva in the second spot and U.S. Open champ Kim Clijsters in third. It might not be was we expected at the start of the year, and while we may not all completely agree with the outcome, it’s hard to argue after this past week’s action in Doha that they didn’t get it pretty darn close.

Vera Zvonareva is probably the biggest surprise of the season, but her success has been a long time coming. Pro since 2000, she’s been a staple in the sport’s elite for most of the last seven years, finishing in the top ten for the past two. And though she -- surprisingly -- only won one title early this year in Pattaya City, her breakthrough at Wimbledon really put her on the map.

She got off to an impressive start at the year-end championships, stopping short Victoria Azarenka's impressive win streak in their first round robin match and avenging her heartbreaking New York loss to Clijsters with a two set win. She was the only woman to emerge from the early rounds without a loss and made the semifinals for the second time in her career.

Unfortunately for Bepa, she ran into top-seeded Caroline Wozniacki on Saturday. The pair has literally traded off wins for the past two years, and coming into this tournament were tied at three wins apiece. And this time Caro kept the momentum on her side -- though Vera broke her serve twice in the first set, the young Dane held strong and bagelled her opponent in the second to make the finals in only her second appearance at the Championships.

It shouldn't be too shocking that Caro showed up this week. Since a one-sided loss in the fourth round of Wimbledon -- she won only two games against Petra Kvitova at the All England Club -- she's won the trophy at five of the seven events she's entered, beating heavyweights like Maria Sharapova, newly-retired Elena Dementieva and her good friend Victoria Azarenka along the way. But while she has certainly paid her dues on Tour this year, she may need a few more wins under her belt before she claims the big title.

Kim Clijsters was again the woman standing in her way. In a rematch of the 2008 2009 U.S. Open finals, the two-time year-ending champ was able to leverage her experience to her advantage, but she was in for a bit more of a battle this time around. After winning the first two games of the match, Clijsters allowed Wozniacki to get even before ultimately rolling to a 6-3, 4-1 lead. But the twenty-year old somehow found a way to turn on the juice and won seven of the next eight games to get her own lead in the deciding set.

Though Caroline's perseverance is certainly a good sign of her growing maturity and an indication of great things that are sure to come for her, it was Kim who stayed the slightest bit stronger, breaking back immediately and eventually getting ahead 4-2 in the third before running away with the championship. It was her fifth crown of 2010, the fortieth of her career and secured her best year-end finish since 2005.

It might be a little strange that for only the second time a year-end #1 hasn't already captured a Major trophy. Or that a woman whose only prize this year came at a relatively small tournament in February. Or that the most experienced and decorated of these ladies finishes behind both of them.

But it sure sets an interesting stage going into next year -- and I expect we'll see a lot more of all these women on the winner's podium then.

October 29, 2010

Goodbye, Elena

I know I'm not the only one who's sad that Elena Dementieva is retiring.

While I might have been a little late on the news, the twitterverse virtually exploded around noon today, when the current world #9 announced she'd just played her last professional match at the WTA Championships' against another veteran Francesca Schiavone. For a player casual tennis fans might never have heard of -- a former co-worker used to call her "Dementia" -- suddenly the Russian star was a trending topic, a real talk of the town. Of the globe, really.



Long my favorite player on the women's Tour, in recent years Dementieva has become known as the best athlete without a Grand Slam title -- she made the finals in Roland Garros and New York in 2004 and the semis of all the Majors another six seven times. But that's not to say she hasn't accomplished much in her twelve-plus year career. She cracked the top twenty in 2000 after a trip to the final four at the U.S. Open and has been a staple in the top ten for the better part of the decade. An instrumental part of the Russian Fed Cup team, she became the most consistent force from a country that has only emerged on the tennis scene in the last ten years. Though she counts Olympic gold in Beijing as the biggest accomplishment among her sixteen titles, she's had some unbelievably memorable matches -- I still count that '09 semi against Serena Williams as the savior of women's tennis -- that netted her nothing but a few minutes of coverage on Sports Center.

Yet Dementieva always showed up on court ready to give 150% -- win or lose, she put up a fight in every match. And it was so often a fight. With one of the weakest serves on the Tour, Elena developed one of the best return games out there and could break the toughest opponents several times in a match just to stay on serve. Despite that apparent weakness, over her career she racked up an impressive 575-271 record and notched big wins over some of the winningest champions around. And she certainly didn't allow herself to float off into oblivion before leaving the game -- having won two titles and made two more finals this year, she qualified for the year-end WTA championships for the eighth consecutive time.

And while she may have ruffled a few feathers here and there, the friends she made on Tour far outnumbered the foes. The outpouring of sentiment, from journalists, fans, seasoned vets and up-and-comers alike, shows just what a class act Elena Dementieva really is.



And while I know she will be sorely missed on Tour, I have no doubt that we're all better because of her.

September 29, 2010

An Embarrassment of Riches

It may not be a Grand Slam, but the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo sure has the ability to attract some real talent in the women's game. With seven of the top ten in the draw and the lowest seed ranked just at twenty, from the start there was the potential for some big-time clashes even in the early rounds.

And the ladies did not disappoint.

Bad Gastein champion Julia Goerges and former world #1 Dinara Safina, both unseeded, met in the first round, as did Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez and Maria Kirilenko, ranked twenty-fourth and twenty-sixth respectively. And it wasn't just a matter of an unjust draw forcing out some stars early -- just shy of her fortieth birthday, Kimiko Date Krumm ousted Maria Sharapova while teen qualifier Coco Vandeweghe dealt Aravane Rezai another early blow. So now with the quarterfinal matches set in Tokyo, the eight women left certainly deserve to be there.

Top seeded Caroline Wozniacki, who secured her spot in the year-end Doha Championships with her win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, has only dropped seven games on her way to the quarters. There she'll meet Aggie Radwanska, who beat a tough-as-nails Andrea Petkovic in the third round.

Wimbledon and U.S. Open runner-up Vera Zvonareva rebounded nicely from her heart-breaking loss in New York with a solid win over Sara Errani and followed it up by bagelling Roberta Vinci in the second set to reach the final eight. Her next opponent Elena Dementieva, just back in the top ten, survived four breaks of serve in her first two matches, but was impressive getting past world #22 Flavia Pennetta.

The bigger surprises have been in the other quarters, though. While French Open champion Francesca Schiavone and Victoria Azarenka, who exited in Flushing Meadows far too early, have both advanced with little drama, but they both have dates with some unexpected contenders.

Vandeweghe, a former junior champion in New York, battled through the qualifying rounds in Japan -- her first appearance in an overseas tournament's main draw -- and defeated Goerges in under an hour for the right to meet Vika tomorrow. And Kaia Kanepi, who made the quarters at both the All England Club and the U.S. Open, notched her second straight win over Jelena Jankovic -- that after already defeating thirteenth seed Shahar Peer and America's one-time darling Melanie Oudin. She hasn't beaten Schiavone since 2006, but I wouldn't be shocked if she got the upset.

With so much talent in the field at the Pan Pacific, it's no wonder that only the strongest survived. It's a shame anyone has to lose, especially after all the work they've put in to get this far, but such is life on the pro Tour.

But isn't it so much better to watch the best compete?

July 28, 2010

Back in Action

This week marks the return of some superstars to the tennis courts -- whether they'd been gone for weeks or for years, in body or in mind, many came out in the last couple days to begin their training for the year's next and last Grand Slam.

Some have met with less success than others -- Ashley Harkleroad, who left the Tour in 2008 to have a baby and pursue, um, other ventures, fizzled out of her first round in Stanford, losing to defending champ Marion Bartoli in straight sets. But others at the Bank of the West Classic have a chance to do a little more damage.

Elena Dementieva, who heart-breakingly retired from her semifinal match at the French Open, makes her return after that calf injury forced her to pull out of Wimbledon. She'll take on Kimiko Date Krumm in her opening round, a veteran fighter who's now beaten former #1 Dinara Safina twice in a row. She could give Elena a fight if she's not in top form yet.

Roland Garros finalist Sam Stosur has also been absent from the circuit of late -- after her defeat in Paris, she was stunned by then-world #100 Ekaterina Makarova in Eastbourne and lost in the first round at the All England Club. As the top seed in Stanford, she faces qualifier Christina McHale in her first match. It should be an easy day at the office, but she'll need to regain the momentum she'd harnessed all spring if she's going to be a contender in New York.

The woman who stopped Stosur dead in her tracks, of course, was Francesca Schiavone, who captured her first Major title at the French at twenty-nine. She hadn't won a match since then, however, until she came to Istanbul this week, handily beating Anne Keothavong in the first round. She should be able to advance at least a few rounds further, but with rising stars like Tsvetana Pironkova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the field, she could have a run for the money.

On the men's side it's been a story of long, hard slogs back from injury. Previously red-hot Nikolay Davydenko pulled out of Roland Garros with a wrist injury and has only won a handful of matches since returning in Halle. He's the top seed in Umag and faces a less-than-intimidating Stephane Robert in his opener. But the field only gets tougher from there, with Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Jurgen Melzer all in the way of an ultimate title.

Ernests Gulbis had climbed to his highest ever ranking after a stunning clay-court season which included wins over Mikhail Youzhny and Roger Federer. But he hasn't been on court since a hamstring strain forced him out at Paris. He survived his first round in Los Angeles, but with the likes of Alejandro Falla and Andy Murray in his near future, it could be difficult in the coming days.

In the same field is my dear James Blake, who's been battling physical and mental demons for a while now. Ranked outside the top hundred, he hadn't won a match since Miami and now has a losing record on the year. Happily, he was able to beat Leonardo Mayer, the man who took him out of the French first round last year -- are you seeing a pattern here? -- and maybe, maybe if he can keep his head in the game, he'll be able to get a few more wins in.

Over the last few weeks, as the top-most stars have taken a break from the game, we've seen emerging talent start to make a dent in the rankings. But now that hardcourt season is back in full swing, you can expect to see some reversion to the norm. Whether these guys will be able to resuscitate their successes immediately or even in time for the U.S. Open is stil to early to tell.

But it sure will be good to have them back!

July 3, 2010

"Like Federer...Without a Nadal"

It's not often that I agree with Mary Carillo. But during today's women's title match between defending champion Serena Williams and first-time finalist Vera Zvonareva, she came up with a very appropriate analogy, comparing Serena's dominance in tennis to Roger Federer's, if there were no Rafael Nadal. Not to belittle Fed's accomplishments by any means, but just think of how many more Majors he'd have won if Nadal hadn't been in the way -- since 2005 Roger has lost five times in the finals to the Spaniard and one more time in the semis.

That realization got me thinking if there really is anyone out there who can challenge Serena's spot at the top. In her thirteen Slam championships, she has never had a foil quite like Nadal. Sure, older sister Venus can sometimes get under her skin, but in the past five years, she's only lost one Major title at the hands of Venus. And there are players who can have moments of brilliance against her -- Jelena Jankovic, Nadia Petrova and Sam Stosur have all outlasted her in recent three-set matches. It's hard to be consistently on top of Williams -- the way she served at the All England Club, opponents rarely got a shot to break. And when she's healthy and focused, her shots always seem to find their mark.

But there are a couple players out there who've had a bit more luck.

In her first career Kim Clijsters surprisingly only got the better of Williams once, at the Tour Championships in 2002. They didn't meet in more than six years before that fateful U.S. Open semi last year, but from what I saw of the Belgian, she'd certainly figured something out in the interim. If they play again, which I'm sure they will during the upcoming hardcourt season, Kim might be able to improve her win percentage.

Countrywoman Justine Henin had a bit better luck against Serena before she retired, beating her four times at a Major and another two when a title was on the line. Despite her diminutive frame and lackluster serve, she kept things fairly level throughout their history, even taking a set from her at the Australian Open this year.

Then there's Elena Dementieva, the only woman other than her sister to take a set from Williams at Wimbledon in the last three years. The Russian actually has a stunning 5-3 record over Serena in the last five years, beating her once on the way to Olympic Gold and twice when another championship was on the line, and she's done so decisively -- her last three wins have been in straight sets. There is some cause for concern, though, as a calf injury forced her to withdraw from the Championships this year and ended her streak of forty-six straight Grand Slam appearances.

But though these ladies might all know what it takes to beat Serena time and time again, the problem is that they can be much less consistent against other players, which makes their chances of reaching the round in which they face the world #1 a lot slimmer. So for the time being, as if we didn't know, it's going to take a lot to dethrone the current queen. And until a solid "Nadal" presents herself, it might be a while before anyone gets a crack at the top.

June 2, 2010

The Ascent of Samantha Stosur

For those who don't regularly follow tennis, it might be hard to believe that Sam Stosur has been a staple on the pro Tour for more than a decade. The twenty-six year old Australian played her first qualifying rounds at her hometown Major back in 2000 and cracked the top one hundred about four years later.

While she started to have success on the doubles court and even rose to #1 in the standings, she was having a hard time by herself -- though she'd won a handful of titles on the ITF circuit she'd never won a WTA trophy, and when a viral illness sidelined her for the back half of 2007 she saw her ranking tumble. But Sam's a workhorse, and about a year ago she started to gain some traction and quietly became the best tennis player, man or woman, Down Under.

But it wasn't until Paris when she really began to hit her stride -- just barely seeded at her sixth appearance at Roland Garros, she knocked out a tough Francesca Schiavone in the first round and fourth-ranked Elena Dementieva in the third. It wasn't until the semifinals that eventual champ Svetlana Kuznetsova could figure her out -- and that not without losing a set.

Sam's showing vaulted her into the top twenty for the first time, but she still hadn't captured that maiden title. A couple big wins in Stanford and Los Angeles proved her run in France wasn't a fluke, but she continued to falter when playing for a title. It wasn't until October when she finally had her breakthrough, battling past top seed Caroline Wozniacki on her way to the Osaka title at nearly the last tournament of 2009. It took her a bit less time this year to earn the gold -- I watched the fourth seed in Charleston drub Vera Zvonareva in the finals at the Family Circle Cup.

And as impressive as that win was, Stosur was even more amazing today when she defied the odds and crushed balls past world #1 Serena Williams in the French Open quarterfinals. Though I had picked her as my favorite in the top part of the women's bracket, I was a bit nervous as she took the court. Somewhat surprisingly, Sam rushed off with the first set in about half an hour. She had a chance to serve for the match in the second, but was broken and eventually lost the tiebreak to Serena. A normal girl would've bowed under pressure and resigned herself to defeat -- but Stosur got even more tough, breaking Williams in the first game of the third. Though she allowed herself to get back on serve immediately, the Australian remained positive, ultimately creating two amazing points to break Serena at six-all. After another hour of play, she held on to earn only her second win over the American.

I said ten days ago that the woman who made it out of this part of the draw would be a favorite to win the title in Paris -- but I don't know that I believed it until today. Truth be told, I was a bit worried that fighting through players like Justine Henin, Maria Sharapova and, of course, Serena, would take a toll on the one who eventually emerged. But watching Sam play today, she's showing no signs of letting up. If beating two players with nineteen Slam titles between them isn't evidence enough, she leads the remaining contenders in aces, firing off fourteen in her second round match alone. She's won more than sixty percent of her first serves in all five of her matches and only committed twenty-four errors in her last match.

Next up for Sam is Jelena Jankovic, a woman she's only beaten once in their previous four meetings -- but that win came just over two months ago in Miami. If she makes her first Major final, she'll face either Elena Dementieva or Francesca Schiavone -- both players, you remember, she defeated last year in Paris. Given that line up, Stosur's chances to take home her first big trophy have never looked better.

And to have come from nothing just a year ago -- what a rise it would be!

May 27, 2010

The Skies Are Clearing

It's not unusual for bad weather to foul up action at the French Open. And this year the last two days have been filled with starts and stops, playing a bit with schedules in the early rounds. But the forecast for tomorrow claims it will be seventy and sunny in Paris, and a couple women will be hoping to show that the rain on their own parades has also stopped.

After making the fourth round of the Australian Open, Alona Bondarenko lost five matches in a row. She's gotten a couple wins since then, but she began to fall from her career high #24 ranking through the spring. While still seeded in the twenties in France, I wasn't sure how she'd do, and as I'd feared, the Ukraine found herself down a set to Vera Dushevina to kick off her campaign. But the older sister of Kateryna found a way to pull through and won her next four sets, making it to the third round of Roland Garros for the first time.

She has a tough road ahead of her, though, and faces fourth seeded Jelena Jankovic next. Alona should take heart though -- after losing to the former #1 nine times, she finally broke that trend with a straight-set win over the Serb in Melbourne. If she can recapture that form, she might be able to pull off an upset, but I have a feeling Jankovic will have a thing or two to say about that.

Elena Dementieva too had been having a rough couple months, most recently losing her opening match to Tsevtana Pironkova in Warsaw. In Paris she's had a pretty intimidating draw, facing a feisty Petra Martic and veteran Anabel Medina Guarrigues on her road to the third round. Though she seemed to stumble a bit when trying to close out her last match, I was encouraged to see her stay steady. Next up she faces Aleksandra Wozniak who she simply dismantled a few weeks back in Madrid, so she should like her chances. It would be great -- if not a bit of a long shot -- to see her back in a Major final.

Caroline Wozniacki played for her first Grand Slam championship less than a year ago, and although she's now ranked higher than she was back in September few are talking about her getting back this time around. Thanks to a devastating tumble in the Charleston semis, she hasn't been much of a force in the last month or so. But she's still been a trooper -- hopefully not to her own detriment -- playing every week since and winning her first two matches in Paris in straight sets.

Unfortunately for Caro, she'll run into red-hot Alexandra Dulgheru on Friday, the twenty-year-old -- her birthday is Sunday -- who repeated as champion in Poland last week, beating three seeds to do so. The Romanian has caused quite a few upsets this season, and she should be able to take advantage of a slower-moving Wozniacki to advance in her French Open debut. I'm just hoping Caroline doesn't do her body any more damage.

Serena Williams hasn't exactly been having a bad clay court run -- she did make the semis in Rome before losing a three-setter to Jankovic. But I'm sure she would have liked a few more "W"s by her name coming into France. She didn't have the best first round, needing a first round tiebreak before ousting world #76 Stefanie Voegele. Next up she'll face Julia Goerges who's never gotten past the second round of any Major. It should be a fairly routine day for the top women's player, but with such a stacked draw, she could use a few easy days at the office.

Then there's last year's champion, Svetlana Kuznetsova, who stopped Serena's Paris run last year in the quarterfinals. The Russian had been playing some ugly tennis over the last few weeks, failing to repeat the success she had last year on the clay by losing her opening matches in Rome and Madrid. She started her defense strategy by getting down a break to Sorana Cirstea in the first round and then faced four match points against a strong Andrea Petkovic in the second before somehow finding a way to pull out the win.

But like the other ladies, her road to the title only gets more rocky from here. Maria Kirilenko, who most recently beat Svets in Italy, looms next and we've seen what kind of damage the fellow Russian can do. If Kuznetsova is going to make her seventh straight fourth round at the French, she will need to up her game to an even higher level.

So as the clouds part over the grounds these ladies will look to continue the runs they've had in the earlier part of the week. The prospects for some are brighter than for others, but whatever the case, it's reassuring to see them all playing like the champions we've known them to be!

May 19, 2010

Out of Time

We're less than four days from the start of the French Open! Yay!

Well, "yay" for some people -- fans like me who've been yearning for something to watch other than guilty pleasure TV (Seriously, Ramona? Seriously?), and athletes like Rafael Nadal or Justine Henin just itching to get that next Major title.

For others, it may cause a bit of a knot in the stomach. While the lead-up clay court season has allowed some new names to shine, a few usual stalwarts haven't really gotten the match play they might have wanted before traveling to Paris. That could be why we saw some big names in action at some small tournaments this week -- and not all with good results.

Melanie Oudin, for example, so close to her all-time high ranking, has now lost in three straight first rounds, including a fifty-two minute drubbing by Magdalena Rybarikova in Warsaw this week. Though a quarterfinal appearance in Charleston and some strong Fed Cup results prove she can win on clay, I'm sure she'd rather have come to France with a few more wins under her belt.

Elena Dementieva has fared only slightly better. Often thought of the best player without a Major trophy, I reluctantly admit she's a bit off my radar this time around. A victim of bad luck earlier in the year, she'd been pitted against Henin in two second rounds and then got caught in the whirlwind run of Ana Ivanovic in Rome.

But a loss to Alexandra Dulgheru in Madrid and a three-set, three-hour smackdown by world #100 Tsvetana Pironkova in Warsaw today doesn't bode well for her chances next week. There is some hope -- she was, remember, a finalist at Roland Garros in 2004. But Dementieva tends to do best at Slams when she's riding a wave of positive momentum -- not so much the case this time.

Robin Soderling hasn't had as much bad luck as that. Though he got bumped in his opening round in Madrid, he did make the semis in Miami and the finals in Barcelona. Last year's finalist at Roland Garros is boasting his highest career ranking and had improved to a 54-44 record on the dirt.

But he hit a wall earlier today against Olivier Rochus, a man he hadn't lost to since 2005. After dropping the first set handily, the Belgian raised his service game and held onto a break-lead in the third to score the win. That's Robin's fourth loss to a player ranked out of the top-fifty this year. Then again, the Swede didn't do much better in the weeks before last year's Open, so maybe he has a little less to worry about.

Then there's Maria Sharapova who'll try to round out her own career Grand Slam this month -- but I have a feeling that goal is a bit of a long shot. She did win a title in Memphis early off but has only taken one match in two tournaments since then. Sharapova opened her campaign in Strasbourg with a come-from-behind win over Regina Kulikova and followed it up with a solid victory over a qualifier on Wednesday, so hope isn't entirely lost. I'd like to see her make good on her top seeding, though, just to get a that extra bit of practice in before Paris.

Of course, past results aren't always an indication of future performance. So hopefully these guys will be able to pull it together for the big show. Or maybe they're just readying themselves for a sneak attack! Otherwise, we may be in for a few more -- and earlier! -- surprises than normal.

May 9, 2010

Something in the Water

I'm not sure what's going on in Madrid. Maybe it's a bit of nerves -- with eighteen of the top twenty women's players in the draw, the stakes are clearly high. Maybe it's that some players are a bit rusty -- we haven't seen a lot of Serena, Dinara or Maria this year. Maybe it's just the stress of the pending Grand Slam.

Who knows, but before an entire round has even been played we've already seen some shocking results.

The first came on Saturday when last year's French Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova suffered her third early exit in as many weeks, this time in a tough three-set loss to Shahar Peer. Then on Sunday, the odds-on favorite to reclaim her Roland Garros crown, Justin Henin, gave up a bagel in the third set to Aravan Rezai. And Lucie Safarova, finally finding her footing after a volatile few months, dismissed Maria Sharapova in about ninety minutes.

Of course there are plenty of other tough players left in the bracket -- Serena Williams made the semis in Rome last week before Jelena Jankovic sent her packing. And defending champ Dinara Safina won't take the court until Monday -- but after her loss last week, also to Peer, she's not exactly playing at the top of her game.

And the last few weeks have certainly added a few new -- or sort of new -- names into the mix. Charleston runner-up Vera Zvonareva dealt Melanie Oudin her third loss since Miami in their first round, and could make a play to get back into the top ten within a few months. And after her inspiring run to the Rome semis, Ana Ivanovic has reminded us why she won a Major not even two years ago. Then there's Estoril finalist Arantxa Parra Santonja, who faces wildcard veteran Virginia Ruano Pascual in her first round Monday -- she has a pretty decent section in the draw and could get through a few rounds herself.

For the top seeds to have a chance they're going to have to bring it -- last year's runner-up Caroline Wozniacki has won a match or two since that devastating fall at the Family Circle Cup, but she's going to need to be healthy and hard-hitting to make it back to the championship round. And sixth-seeded Elena Dementieva, who's probably one of the best all-surface players on the Tour, could face Serena for a spot in the semis, but should be mollified by the fact that she's won six of their nine meetings since 2007.

But they'll all have to be careful to avoid the fate of those that have already gone home. With so much on the line, we really don't want to see anyone deserving get upset.

May 5, 2010

Where'd That Come From?

If you'd written off Ana Ivanovic from the top tiers of women's tennis recently, you probably weren't alone.

The former world #1, '08 Roland Garros champ, hadn't put together back-to-back wins since Brisbane in January. The last time she beat a top-twenty player was at Wimbledon, she's been title-less since Linz two years ago and watched her ranking drop into the high double-digits after a disappointing showing in Indian Wells. Ana has done some things to get back in form, hiring Steffi Graf's former coach among them, but it hasn't seemed to do much good.

At least not until this week.

For months we watched Ana put up a fight -- she actually had several leads over Kim Clijsters at the Billie Jean King exhibition match in March and kept things close against Aggie Radwanska at two straight tournaments -- but never quite pull off the win. So when she got past Elena Vesnina in the first round in Rome on Monday, I thought it was a fluke. A straight set win over ninth seed Victoria Azarenka yesterday, I considered encouraging.

But I never gave her a chance against Elena Dementieva in the third round. The Russian had won all four of their previous matches -- at least one on every surface -- and ceded only two sets. Sure, Elena has one of the weaker serves on the Tour but, if possible, Ana's is usually worse. But all the new coaching seems to have successfully, and suddenly, paid off. Ivanovic has dished out eleven aces already this week, outnumbering her double faults almost two-to-one.

Today she won seventy percent of her first serve attempts and held Dementieva to only a third of the points in the first set. She rolled through the first half with a 6-1 win. The ladies traded breaks in the next set and ultimately forced a tiebreak, which Ana won, 7-5. After less than a hundred minutes, she's made only her second quarterfinal in the past twelve months.

Of course, by virtue of a low rank and no seeding, the road ahead will be tough. Ivanovic faces a feisty Nadia Petrova in the next round, a woman she hasn't beaten since 2007, and a third straight match with Radwanska looms in the semis should she make it. Then again, in a tournament which has already seen so many casualties -- Sam Stosur withdrew, while Caroline Wozniacki, Dinara Safina and Svetlana Kuznetsova all lost early -- there's plenty of room for surprises.

And it may just be Ana's strategy to catch the whole tennis world by surprise.

February 28, 2010

First Time's a Charm

For some this was a week of defending titles -- both Novak Djokovic and Venus Williams repeated as champions in Dubai and Acapulco, respectively -- but for others it was a week of firsts.

In Kuala Lumpur the story was all Russia's Alisa Kleybanova. The twenty-year-old had climbed into the top thirty last year with wins over player like Jelena Jankovic and Venus and even took a set from Justine Henin at the Australian Open.

She struggled early in Malaysia, going to three sets in her second and third rounds, but when she met Elena Dementieva in the finals she went on a roll. Alisa capitalized on her compatriot's notoriously weak serves and broke her opponent four times. She won seventy percent of her own first attempts and captured her first ever Tour title in just over ninety minutes -- not bad for a final debut.

Closer to home in Delray Beach Latvian Ernests Gulbis and Croat Ivo Karlovic battled through a slew of homegrown fan-favorites to contest the championship. The two had never met before, but the big server, seeded second, was clearly the favorite. Gulbis, on the other hand, is one of those very talented, but terribly inconsistent pros -- since peaking at #38 in the world two years ago, he's languished somewhere in the low double-digits.

This year, though, he's been on his own roll, beating two higher-ranked players in Melbourne and making the semis last week in Memphis. And today in Florida Ernests withstood fourteen aces from the more-experienced veteran and still managed to break him four times. And after two sets the twenty-one-year-old was also the victor in his first career final.

It's always nice to see new talent come to light, and both Kleybanova and Gulbis have finally shown they can put together a few wins in a row to capture the ultimate crown. If they're able to keep up the momentum, this could be a good year for both of them, and I'm looking forward to watching them succeed.

Hopefully now that they have the first -- and most difficult -- trophy under their belts, the rest will come easily!

February 14, 2010

Back on Track

It wasn't the most exciting final on record -- at less than an hour and not quite two full sets, Robin Soderling was the eventual winner in what was a pretty tough draw in Rotterdam, winning his fifth career title at the ABN Amro World Tennis Tournament.

The third seed hadn't had the best year to date, and with first round exits at both Chennai and the Australian Open, I was beginning to think Soderling had hit his peak last year. But this week, surprisingly, he faced his biggest challenge in the opening round, when Florent Serra took the first set of their match, and that's saying a lot when the field included brand new world #2 Novak Djokovic and red-hot Nikolay Davydenko. After a fairly routine semifinal against the latter on Saturday, last year's French Open runner-up found himself facing a resurgent Mikhail Youzhny for the title.

The Russian had proven himself to be quite the giant-killer this week. He dispatched fourth-seed Gael Monfils in the quarters and spent a grueling two hours on court with Djokovic in the semis before reaching his fifth final in twelve months. But a nagging back injury forced him to retire while down a set and a break on Sunday. Unable to serve well at all, Youzhny retired after just over fifty minutes of play.



It was Soderling's first championship on a hard court, an important breakthrough for a man now solidly within the top ten, and as he heads to Marseille next week, it certainly reminds his opponents of the force he brings.

In Paris, too, Elena Dementieva sought to prove she is still a champion. Australian Open results notwithstanding, Elena nicely proved why she's largely considered the best player without a Grand Slam title, coming back from a set down against Lucie Safarova to claim her second title of the year. With a 10-1 record in 2010 now, she's riding the same wave of momentum that she began last year with, when she was on her way to a career-high #3 ranking.



Later today Andy Roddick will do his part to show that he too is back on track for a successful year. The champion in Brisbane has been plagued by hip and knee injuries and pulled out of Davis Cup action in order not to endanger his fitness further. This week he made it through a rough semifinal against compatriot Sam Querrey in San Jose, one in which he didn't have one break opportunity on his opponent's serve, for a chance to battle Fernando Verdasco for his fourth SAP Open title. He hasn't lost to the Spaniard since 2005, but a win tonight would clearly have broader implications for his chances to make an impact this year. I'm giving him the slight edge, but I have a feeling this could be a battle!

But it sure is great to see everyone playing at their best again -- it may be early, but if these results are any indication of what's to come, it's shaping up to be a pretty good year!

February 12, 2010

Avenging the Draw

In the first Premier event since the Australian Open, some top-flight ladies are trying to make up for some bad luck in Melbourne this week.

Elena Dementieva and Flavia Pennetta earned the #1 & #2 spots at the Open GDF Suez being held in Paris. Both, you might remember, were in the uber-stacked third quarter Down Under, and faced unseeded but ultimately lethal opponents in the second round -- Dementieva drew eventual finalist Justine Henin, while Pennetta got the recently reinstated world #16 Yanina Wickmayer.

Neither "favorite" advanced.

This year the Paris event attracted an imposing field -- Wickmayer again arrived as a potential spoiler, as did Fed Cup heroine Francesca Schiavone. And lurking among the unseeded players were feisty Alisa Kleybanova and U.S. Open darling Melanie Oudin. And there were no shortage of upsets -- heading into the quarters, only three seeds were left standing.

This morning Flavia became the first player into the semis with a 6-1, 6-3 win over countrywoman Tathiana Garbin -- she'll have a date tomorrow with Lucie Safarova, who earlier dismissed sixth seeded Shahar Peer. Elena will try to follow her colleagues later today when she takes on German Andrea Petkovic, a twenty-two year old who won her first Tour title in Bad Gastein last year. If she makes it, by the way, Dementieva could create a rematch of her U.S. Open round two with Oudin, another loss I'm sure she's eager to avenge.

Getting a win in Paris would be a great ego-boost for either lady -- Dementieva was the runner-up here in 2009 and Pennetta, who hadn't won a match in Paris before this year, needs to show just how good a player she has become. More importantly, both want to prove they can rebound quickly from the hits they took in Melbourne. And if they make it to the finals, it will be a fun one to watch -- surprisingly, the two have never met before, and what better stage to do so than at a Premier event?

I, for one, can't wait to watch!

January 24, 2010

Who Has to Hold?

I hate serving. Always have. When I was kid breaking my opponent was not the issue, and I could almost guarantee that the player who held his serve first was the one who would win. Even now I still find myself playing First-Ball-In or Three-Fault tennis. No one wants to win a match on double faults.

I feel bad about it -- it's frustrating that the one shot in a match over which I really had total control could go just about anywhere it wanted to. But I wrote it off to the fact that 1) I'm pretty short, 2) no one ever taught me proper ball tosses and racquet swings, and 3) I'm only an amateur.

Turns out those three factors don't matter -- the pros, even the tall ones who've trained for years with the best coaches, can't really hold their serve either.

Now that's not totally fair, of course. Rafael Nadal and Ivo Karlovic only broke each other once per set last night, with Rafa happily coming out on top of that battle. And during the marathon, historic Wimbledon final last year, Andy Roddick wasn't broken until the very last, seventy-seventh game -- there were only three breaks total during that four-hour-plus match, and Andy had two of them!

Is it just on the women's side then? Maybe. But even players like Karlovic, who fired off 121 aces in four rounds, can't advance well into the draws of Majors. And typically strong women like Serena Williams can also struggle. In her third round match when she was serving at 5-0 against Carla Suarez Navarro, about to close out an easy first set, she hit nine errors, endured thirteen deuces and faced six break points in a twenty-three minute game that more than doubled the length of that entire set. Serena advanced of course, despite the little hiccup, but others found themselves going through a little more trouble in order to advance.

It shouldn't be surprising that 5'5" Justine Henin has trouble holding her serve -- it's really her beautiful backhands and crushing groundstrokes that have won her seven Grand Slam titles. In her second round match against Elena Dementieva she had two chances to serve for the match and ceded both of them -- more than half of the games actually went to the server. In her fourth round Sunday against fellow Belgian Yanina Wickmayer, Justine was broken four times and even lost the second set 1-6. Wickmayer was not much better, allowing Henin to convert on sixty percent of her break opportunities, including two of two in the deciding set. But mediocre serving aside, the more experienced champion was able to pull through when it mattered, making the quarters in Melbourne for the sixth time in her career.

Earlier in the day world #35 and former top-twenty player Jie Zheng was similarly unimpressive in her service games against Hobart champ Alona Bondarenko. The seeded Ukrainian actually won slightly more on her first attempts -- fifty-one percent to Zheng's even fifty. But the woman who ousted Jelena Jankovic in the previous round was even worse on second tries, winning only a third of those serves versus 56% for the Chinese #2. The ladies traded breaks through the first set -- three a piece -- before Zheng, a shrimpy 5'4", finally won in the tiebreak. The server lost another five games in the second, but Jie was able to hold when it counted, winning the last game of the match for a chance to play in her first ever quarterfinal here.

They weren't the only ones. Five-foot-ten Nadia Petrova lost her serve three times in her defeat of reigning French Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova and Vera Zvonareva traded breaks with Gisela Dulko five times in the second set of their third round match. Apparently, it would seem, losing your serve doesn't guarantee your opponent a win, a hard lesson Alexandra Dulgheru learned when she broke a six-foot-tall Wickmayer nine times in the first round and still lost.

Of course, this isn't an argument that players shouldn't work on improving their first serve percentage, or that having the ability to bomb ace after ace won't serve you in the long run. But it is amusing that the usual race-to-break mentality of tennis can be so easily turned on its head. And it highlights just how important an all-around game is on Tour. Maybe when we start to see some real, legitimate big servers or even -- God forbid! -- serve-and-volleyers, especially on the women's side, we could start to see a whole new style of tennis, and a new crop of champions emerge.

Until then, I'll continue to harbor delusions of being able to compete with the pros with my dinky little serve! Hey, if they can do it, so can I!

January 19, 2010

Opening With a Bang

Hold your breath -- you're about to witness what could be the best early round match ever contested at a Grand Slam.

Well, that might not be entirely true -- you could easily argue that the five-setter that Mikhail Youzhny just endured displayed some high-quality shot-making that makes it worthy of that distinction. But in a draw where several seeds are slated to meet such formidable opponents right out the gate, pundits are hyping tonight's women's match pretty heavily. At 7pm Melbourne time, about 3am for us New Yorkers, fifth seed Elena Dementieva will take the court against former #1 and 2004 Australian Open champ Justine Henin in just the second round of the tournament.

It's a weird and unfortunate twist of fate that put two players riding such waves of momentum in the same part of the bracket. Elena is coming off a solid victory in Sydney, where she repeated her title run from last year by easily rolling through Serena Williams on Friday. And Justine made the finals down in Brisbane, putting on a much-anticipated show against Kim Clijsters before falling to last year's U.S. Open champ Kim Clijsters in three sets. It doesn't seem fair that one of them has to leave so early.

The two are veterans, having done their time on Tour for more than a decade each, and as such, they've met eleven times already, with Elena only coming out on top twice. The Russian peaked at #3 in the world last year, and despite tumbling a few spots, she still looks to be in top form. Henin won't be ranked until she competes in one more tournament, despite the fact that she retired while #1.

Both have their Achilles' heel -- Justine withdrew from Sydney due to a leg injury she sustained in Brisbane while Dementieva's serve has the annoying habit of breaking down on her. But they're certainly both fighters -- the Belgian returned to the Tour this year as if she'd never left, while Dementieva has earned herself the annoying honorific of being the best player to never have won a Major.

So what's in store for the winner of this match? In the third round she'll meet the winner of the duel between Sorana Cirstea, the surprise quarterfinalist at last year's French Open, and Alisa Kleybanova, a woman who beat Venus Williams and Jelena Jankovic last year. More importantly, she'll be able to say she's already faced and vanquished one big threat for the title. I said earlier that I wouldn't be surprised if the eventual champion came out of this bracket, and a win on Wednesday would go a long way to proving that.

But what the match-up says about the overall strength of the field this year is even more heartening. There really are no clear-cut favorites in almost any match. There have been plenty of first round battles between players ranked only a few positions apart -- and one-time favorites like Robin Soderling can be upset by players ranked in the triple digits like Marcel Granollers. It's disappointing, sure, but not necessarily a bad thing -- it's certainly not an indication that players are doing poorly but, quite the contrary, that there's so much talent out there that no one is really an underdog.

So with just two days of play knocked out, we can see signs that this is going to be a great year for tennis. Hopefully, it'll end just as it's starting!

January 17, 2010

Semifinal Predictions: Australian Open

The draws for the 2010 Australian Open were released on Friday, and it looks like we're already in for a few big matches over the next fortnight.

And this year I've decided to preview each tournament with my predictions for the player in each quarter most likely to reach the semifinals. But the draws are interesting this year, and some bets that might have been easy to make a few weeks ago aren't quite sure things anymore. And we know that the top four seeds seldom all make it as far as they should -- I doubt this year will be any different. And, after all, isn't it more fun when there are big upsets?

So let's dive right in.

The MenThe Women


The Men

First Quarter

Well of course top-seeded Roger Federer will make it through his quarter unscathed, right? Right? I mean, can you remember the last time he didn't make the Final Four of a Major?*

It's funny, though -- the same year that brought him a career Grand Slam and put his name in the record books also proved just how vulnerable Roger is. In the last few months he's lost twice in a row to Juan Martin Del Potro, and ended a twelve-match win streak against Robin Soderling at an Abu Dhabi exhibition. He also hasn't won a title since Cincinnati.

Sure, he always brings his A-game to the Majors, and when you're talking about a best-of-five match, there aren't many to whom you'd give the edge. But Roger also has to contend with a big bracket -- he'll face #36 Igor Andreev in the first round and could get Lleyton Hewitt in the fourth.

Most intimidating has to be Nikolay Davydenko, who looms large in the quarters. The Russian notched his first victory over Federer in the London semis, and then shocked him again a week ago in Doha. More importantly, Nikolay is playing better than he has in a long time. He regrouped after being bagelled by Rafael Nadal in the first set last Sunday and ultimately won the title after almost three hours of play.

The biggest on-paper threat in the early part of Davydenko's bracket would be Juan Carlos Ferrero who withdrew from Auckland this past week after rolling his ankle. After that it's clear sailing until he presumably meets Fernando Verdasco early in the second week. While I can't discount last year's semifinalist, Davydenko has been on too strong a roll to falter here.

Predicted Semifinalist: I'm going to go out on a limb here and actually send Roger home early -- well, early for him. Davydenko is making the semis this year.


Second Quarter

Second seed Rafael Nadal is the lucky contestant to draw Andy Murray as a potential quarterfinal opponent, so this section could get interesting.

Nadal has been doing well in the weeks leading up to the Australian Open. While I began the year worried that the defending champion wouldn't be up to snuff so soon, a trophy at the Capitala exhibition in Abu Dhabi and the runner-up prize in Doha have somewhat allayed my fears.

Hard courts aren't necessarily Nadal's strongest surface, though, and he does face a spirited Peter Luczak in the first round. There's also the possibility of a third round against John Isner, who picked a good time to win his first title in Auckland this past week -- let's not forget how John stunned Andy Roddick back in New York. The American just missed being seeded for the Slam, so he shouldn't be overlooked.

On the other side Andy Murray benefits from early rounds full of qualifiers. The potential fourth round versus Gael Monfils could pose a bit of an obstacle, as the Frenchman faced and passed a few challenges in Brisbane before losing in the semis, and he's actually won the pair's only five-set match at Roland Garros in 2006. But Murray will be determined to prove he deserved a higher seed, and should set up the quarters with Rafa.

And that round should be as exciting as we'd expect -- the Brit had begun to get momentum against Nadal early last year before losing to him twice in a row, once on a hard court. But they haven't met since the Spaniard's knee injury took him out of Wimbledon, so I'll be curious to see what dynamic develops between them now.

Predicted Semifinalist: Bad luck of the draw notwithstanding, Rafa's no slouch. I have a feeling he'll pull it out, even if he has to face Murray in the quarters.


Third Quarter

Novak Djokovic might have learned something since his last trip Down Under. In 2008 he came to Melbourne fresh and rested and ended up defeating Federer in straight sets before claiming his first Grand Slam with a win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Last year he tried to get an early start but lost in the first round at Brisbane and the semis in Sydney. Needless to say, he did not repeat. The twenty-two year old Serb hasn't competed yet in 2010, but you can bet his new coach has been getting him more than ready during the off-season. He's got a relatively easy first few rounds, with his biggest threat coming from 2008 quarterfinalist Mikhail Youzhny -- Nole should advance without too much ado.

The other half of the section is a little more interesting and could result in a pretty good quarterfinal match. Robin Soderling had a great finish to last year and began this one with his first career win over Federer. And Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been quietly plodding away on his own -- after staging a huge comeback to beat Roger in Montreal last year, he's put together some impressive wins in the Kooyong exhibition in Melbourne. These days I might pick him to meet Nole in the Elite Eight, a rematch of the 2008 championship game.

Predicted Semifinalist: Novak easily has the most experience of anyone in this part of the draw -- he may lose a set or two, but this semi is his to lose.


Fourth Quarter

Juan Martin Del Potro silenced nay-sayers last September when the tall, lanky Argentine proved he was fit enough to survive the heat of a tough five-setter, and he comes to Australia with a newly minted #4 ranking, his highest ever. But DelPo retired from the semifinals at the Kooyong exhibition with a wrist injury, the third time he's withdrawn from a tournament in the last two months -- that doesn't exactly bode well for him in the early rounds.

Plus he's got some big competition for that last semifinal spot -- spunky Viktor Troicki is a possible third round opponent, and Marin Cilic, who repeated his championship run Chennai earlier this month, looms in the fourth. Cilic, you might remember, cleared the way for DelPo at the U.S. Open by taking care of Andy Murray for him, so he could pose a bit of a threat.

As could Andy Roddick, a man who has somewhat surprisingly lost all three of his meetings with Del Potro. He started off the year on the right foot, though, defeating defending Brisbane champ Radek Stepanek for that title. Unfortunately it looks like the knee injury that kept him out of the year-end championships is still bugging him, as he's chosen not to play for the U.S. Davis Cup to avoid further stress, but hopefully he can advance through the early rounds with little trouble.

Predicted Semifinalist: With the top two players in the section dealing with injuries, it's a tough call, but I'm giving Andy the slight edge, with Cilic coming in a close second.


The Women

First Quarter

Defending champion Serena Williams has a habit of winning the Australian Open in odd-numbered years -- she's done so since 2003 when, as the top seed, she beat her second-ranked sister in three sets -- so this being 2010, some might say it's not her year. Then again, she's never lost the tournament while ranked #1. And, like Roger, she seems to play her best at the Majors -- though she hasn't won a non-Slam in almost two years, she's contested four championship matches in the last eighteen months and won her first Tour championship since 2001 last November.

But she was handily beaten by Elena Dementieva in the Sydney finals on Friday, her fifth loss in her last eight meetings with the Russian. In fact, she lost her serve five times during that match, a statistic unusual for her. Serena has a couple of challenges in her bracket, too. Victoria Azarenka, who challenged Williams in the fourth round last year and avenged that ultimate loss, is playing well again, and even Ana Ivanovic is showing traces of her championship self. And the hometown crowd is likely going to be cheering Sam Stosur through as well.

Predicted Semifinalist: Obstacles aside there are few serious threats to Serena's run. She should be able to make it through again.


Second Quarter

Dinara Safina headlines this portion of the bracket, but her chances of making the Final Four, I'm afraid to say, might be worst of all the top players. She won her first match back in Sydney, but after being broken five times in the quarters by Elena Dementieva, I stand by my statement that her first round performance in Melbourne will be a crucial gauge of her viability. There she'll face last year's Birmingham champ Magdalena Rybarikova, who she beat in the French Open a few years back. She should be able to do so again, but that's only the start of her problems.

Both Alona and Kateryna Bondarenko are in this quarter, the elder of whom just won her first Tour title in Hobart, and Dominika Cibulkova has been putting together a couple of wins of her own. Then there's Maria Sharapova, the 2008 champ who never got a chance to defend her title last year. Since returning to the game last May, she hasn't had a lot of early exits, and after taking the title in Tokyo thanks to a retirement by Jelena Jankovic, she's going to want to prove she can win based on her own merits.

Predicted Semifinalist: While there are a couple players in this quarter who have the ability to put together a string of wins, I think Maria's got the talent and the motivation to get to the semis. And it will be good o see her back!


Third Quarter

This might be the quarter where we see the most fireworks this year -- Grand Slam titlists, former #1's, momentum players, and an inordinate number of contenders in the top-twenty, this section has it all.

At the top is Svetlana Kuznetsova, who has a couple of hard court titles to her name, including the 2004 U.S. Open, but she didn't quite seem to be at her best in Sydney. After a first round scare from a feisty Alisa Kleybanova, she lost her next match to Dominika Cibulkova, which isn't the most promising sign. Of course she's a strong player, so she'll pose a threat to anyone she faces.

But she's got early dates with Aravane Rezai, who took Serena to three sets this past week, and Kim Clijsters, who already won her first battle with long-time rival Justine Henin in Brisbane. And then there's Elena Dementieva, who was nearly flawless in defense of her Sydney title. She beat three seeded players in straight sets, and took just seventy-five minutes to dismiss Serena in the finals. In Melbourne, though, she'll have little breathing room, as 2004 champ Henin will probably be waiting in the second round for her.

And let's talk for just a minute about Yanina Wickmayer, the Auckland champ who had to play the qualifying rounds in Melbourne because her WADA ban was lifted too late for her to enter the main draw. She got Alexandra Dulgheru for her first match, but the world #16 could face #12 Flavia Pennetta in the second round and Dementieva in the fourth.

It's one thing that this quarter has so many good players, but another altogether that they're all doing so well. I wouldn't be surprised if the eventual winner came out of this bracket -- and if we're still talking about some of these matches as the defining moments of the year come December.

Predicted Semifinalist: I'm so conflicted here -- my heart says Elena, but my head is going with Kim.


Fourth Quarter

This is probably the hardest quarter to call, not because it's as stacked as the previous one, but because no one really stands out.

U.S. Open runner-up Caroline Wozniacki comes to Melbourne with her highest seed at a Major. But she retired from her last two tournaments of 2009 and was upset in the first round at Sydney. I'm not saying she's peaked yet, but it might be asking too much for the nineteen year old to make two consecutive Grand Slam semis. And Venus Williams has been spotty in recent months, despite a second straight appearance at the year-end finals. She hasn't won a hard court Major since 2001.

That leaves this section wide open, creating opportunities for players like Daniela Hantuchova and Francesca Schiavone, both of whom have gotten in some action in the preseason. Melanie Oudin is also in this part of the bracket, and we now know better than to count her out of any match.

There are also plenty of players who've fallen by the wayside, and can really use the next two weeks to get their tennis careers back on track. Remember when Sybille Bammer downed Serena Williams last August in Cincinnati? Or when Alize Cornet was ranked eleventh in the world? That was less than a year ago! Any of these ladies have a chance to get through, and I would love to see this be the quarter where an unknown finally makes a stand.

Predicted Semifinalist: I actually think Shahar Peer is playing some of the most impressive tennis in this part of the bracket -- the semis in Auckland and a runner-up trophy in Hobart could help propel her to her best ever showing at a Major.




So with the first serves of the 2010 Australian Open just a few hours away, I have high hopes for this season. It will be exciting to see who emerges as the new face of tennis and who captures our hearts as the breakthrough of the tournament. It certainly looks like we're on the verge of some big changes in the sport -- and it sure will be fun to watch!

* At the 2004 French Open, King Roger was eliminated in the third round by Gustavo Kuerten.