Their Big Break

With a couple days of play in the books in Indian Wells, it hasn't been all tea and roses for the sport's biggest stars. And while several seeds have run through their matches, many have struggled to eke out early wins and still others have fallen much sooner than they would have hoped. And that may have created a big opportunity for a couple underdogs.

The biggest upset on the women's side, of course, has been the loss of 2012 champion Victoria Azarenka who, contending with injury since the Australian Open, lost her opener to twenty-year-old American Lauren Davis who'd never before beaten a top ten player. The world #66 does have a nice section of the draw too -- the next seed she's slated to meet would be Roberta Vinci, but the Italian is so far only 1-5 on the year -- so she might not have to put up a big effort to get much farther. But perhaps the lady with the least to lose in this half is German teenager Annika Beck, who beat a recently unimpressive Elena Vesnina in her second round. She'll face off against Aga Radwanska, a semifinalist here a couple years back, so her path forward is a little less certain. Still, Beck's already beaten players like Genie Bouchard and Sam Stosur this year, so there's no reason she can't pull off another shocking win.

The upsets on the top half of the bracket haven't been quite as headline-worthy, but that doesn't make them inconsequential either. Aleksandra Wozniak, whose injury-riddled 2013 season pushed her ranking to nearly three hundred today, rallied against Sabine Lisicki to score her first win over a top twenty player in almost two years. And while she has an immediate challenge against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova next, there's no reason the veteran Canadian can't find the strength for another win. But we might just see the most fireworks in the very bottom of this section. Young Spaniard Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor just ended a three-set break-fest -- fifteen in total -- with fifth seeded Angelique Kerber, setting up a meeting with a true comeback story, Alisa Kleybanova. The young Russian was diagnosed with cancer back in 2011 and hasn't played much since returning to court a year later. But this week she's already handled a spunky Victoria Duval and earlier today took out red-hot Garbine Muguruza in straight sets. If she is healthy again -- and so far in the desert, it seems that she is -- she might just surprise us all.

Only half the seeded men have played their openers so far in Indian Wells, but those that have have already been tested. Jerzy Janowicz went three sets and lost to clay court specialist Alejandro Falla, while favorites Milos Raonic and even Andy Murray were pushed to deciders before closing out their wins. And that could give players like Jiri Vesely a chance to shine. The 2013 ATP Star of Tomorrow didn't get to play the Davis Cup matches I was so anticipating, but he did reach the semis in a Heilbronn Challenger event and today survived a challenge from world #35 Pablo Andujar. He has been through two tough three-setters, though, so he might be a little spent when he takes on Murray in a few days -- but if he can capitalize against a player who knows little about who he's facing, the young Czech could cause quite the upset.

In the bottom half of the men's draw the favorites have yet to show their stuff, but a couple players' performances in their first rounds might suggest they have an edge. Veteran Nikolay Davydenko was pushed to three sets by sputtering David Goffin, but with his next opponent John Isner dealing with injuries himself the last few weeks, the Russian might just be able to pounce. And Roberto Bautista Agut, the Cinderella fourth-rounder in Melbourne, delivered a one-sided loss to American Steve Johnson and could give Tomas Berdych a run for his money in his next round. But perhaps we should focus on Paolo Lorenzi, the veteran Italian coming off his first career championship match in Sao Paulo last week. Unfortunately for him, he's up against a sizzling Marin Cilic, who's made at least the final of the last three events he's played. Still, if Lorenzi is the more rested of the two, he could keep his own streak going.

Of course it's one thing for these players to pull off another win or two in Indian Wells -- it's quite another for any of them to make a real play for the title. But if they're able to take advantage of the opportunities they've created for themselves so far, there's no reason to believe they've each got a great chance to bring even more heat to the desert.

Picking Up Where We Left Off...

It's been more than a couple weeks since we last saw the sport's biggest stars take the court with a trophy on the line. But as the new season kicks off, so many of them were eager to keep the momentum they had late last year, while others were out to recapture the magic they had not so long ago. And with their performances so far, they've each put themselves on track to accomplish even bigger things in 2013.

Janko Tipsarevic had lost a bit of steam at the end of last year -- after claiming two titles
to end 2011, he made few real breakthroughs last season. He did manage one title in Stuttgart, and a couple finals here and there, but after retiring in Paris and losing all three of his London round robins, he looked a little beaten down. He got himself back on track in Chennai this week though, admittedly without ever facing too big a challenge -- top-seeded Tomas Berdych was ousted in his quarterfinal, and the only seed Tipsy faced on the way to his second straight final here was world #60 Go Soeda. But after losing the first set to little-known Roberto Bautista Agut he was able to regroup and win his first championship since July. And with some good results this time of year, he might be able to wash out the stale taste in his mouth from the fall.

Na Li has had some of her best results this time of year, and whatever her results were coming into it the last few seasons she finds a way to shine. She's a shade off her career high ranking these days and only played a handful of events after the U.S. Open, but she has a lot of points to defend the first few months of the year -- a final in Sydney, a fourth round in Melbourne -- so she new she had to perform. This past week in Shenzhen she was dominant in her early rounds, delivering bagels to both Mandy Minella and Shuai Peng to make the final. Meanwhile fellow veteran Klara Zakopalova was making her way through the other end of the draw -- the long-time middle-tier player thumped doubles phenom Andrea Hlavackova and shocked second-seeded Marion Bartoli to make her first championship match in nearly two years. But though she put up a fight, the Czech eventually succumbed to Li's experience, and the hometown favorite set herself up for another strong showing Down Under.

Over in Doha many of the favorites were stunned from the start, but at the end two long-time stars were the ones left standing. One-time world #3 Nikolay Davydenko has struggled for much of the last two years to come back from wrist injury, but this was a first time in a while he looked like the star we once knew. The Russian kicked off his campaign with a solid win over recently resurgent Mikhail Youzhny and then pulled off a huge upset over red-hot David Ferrer to make the last round. In the other half of the draw Richard Gasquet, back in the top ten since 2008, made his own dramatic run to the championship match. Tested early by one of last year's newcomers, he was also pushed to the limit against qualifier Daniel Brands in the semis. He was ultimately too much for Davydenko in the final, though, coming back after losing the first set and taking his eighth career title. The Russian's fight to make another trip into the elite may have been stalled in Saturday's match, but his performance last week sure gives him hope. And Gasquet's continuation of the play that brought him a title in Bangkok at the end of last season promises to serve him well in 2013, if he can keep it up.

Aggie Radwanska's best results came a little earlier last year, and though she seemed to sputter in the fall thanks to a couple injuries, she picked up her game at the season-ender in Istanbul to make her first semi at the WTA finals. She made sure that momentum stuck to start 2013, and made quick work of her draw in Auckland -- though she got some help when Elena Vesnina ousted last year's comeback kid Yaroslava Shvedova and second-seeded Julia Goerges lost in her second round, she didn't face much of a challenge until she was taken to two tiebreaks in the semis against young American Jamie Hampton. But even given her fine start, the result was far from certain when in the final she faced Yanina Wickmayer, playing her third final in New Zealand -- she won back in 2010. Still Aga was relentless Saturday, keeping herself perfect and not dropping a set throughout the week. With one more title to start the year, the eleventh of her career, she seems she might still have what it takes to make a move back to the top.

Maybe more impressive was the performance of a woman looking to make her own move to the top. Serena Williams has only lost one match since last year's French Open, and is now a stone's throw from reclaiming the sport's top spot. She came to Brisbane as only the third seed, but even before Maria Sharapova withdrew from the event and Victoria Azarenka pulled out of their semi with a (weird!) toe injury she was probably still the favorite. Despite a potentially tough first round against rising American star Varvara Lepchenko, she was nevertheless brutal on her way to the final, dropping just fourteen games in three matches. In the bottom half Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova was pulling off her own comeback, taking out two top seeds in straight sets. But she didn't have it in her to put up a fight against the relentless Serena who, in another trouncing, claimed her eighth title in less than twelve months. With that kind of performance going into the Australian Open, there's no reason to think she won't keep her play up to take her sixteenth Slam trophy.

But maybe the most pressure was on Andy Murray this week -- after his breakthrough year, it would have been a shame to see him falter so early in 2013. But after being pushed in his opener against Australian qualifier John Millman, he largely sailed through his later rounds. Meanwhile rising star Grigor Dimitrov was having his own stretch of luck in the bottom half of the draw -- he started by stunning second-seed Milos Raonic and followed up with a win over Jurgen Melzer, and after eventually ending Marcos Baghdatis's win streak in the semis made his first career singles final in Brisbane. But the Bulgarian's Cinderella run would come to end in Sunday's championship -- after keeping it close for a set, Murray pulled ahead in the second ultimately closed out his first title of the year. If there was any concern he was about to endure a sophomore slump, he might have silenced them entirely after his performance this week.

It's still early in the season, of course, but it sure looks like this week's winners are well on their way to proving recent successes were no fluke -- or that any slumps they've had may be short-lived. With just a week to go before the first Major of 2013, there may not have been a better time to show us what they've still got.

And it could make for some real excitement when it really heats up in Melbourne.

Nearing the End

There sure seemed to be a lot of veterans in action on the men's Tour this week. More than a handful of thirty-plus players took to the court, and one very special one said good-bye for good. And that makes me wonder how many more will throw in the towel in the months to come.

Nikolay Davydenko has been trying to stay relevant for much of the last three years. After peaking -- in form, at least -- at the 2009 year-end championships, he struggled to come back from a wrist injury the next season and, despite some decent wins this year, he hasn't won a title since Munich last year. His ranking has straddled both sides of the top fifty for the last twelve months, and the one-time world #3 has only won one match at a Major in 2012. He had a promising start this week in Basel, taking out fourth-seeded Stanislas Wawrinka in his opener, but hit a stumbling block today against fellow veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu. Having missed the entirety of 2011 with a knee injury, the Frenchman saved five of six break chances to make his second quarterfinal of the year, but his win might have meant more for Davydenko. It was his seventh loss of the year to a lower-ranked player and keeps him from trying to improve a 0-9 record against top-ten players this season. Unless the Russian is able to turn those stats around soon, it might not be long before he's pulling the retirement switch.

Lleyton Hewitt has been making similar bobs in and out of the power game recently. Having battled one injury after another for years, he's only just climbed back into the top hundred for the first time since last June. But the two-time Major winner has pulled off wins over Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic and Andy Roddick this year, and with a run to the Newport final in July he's shown he's still hungry for a title. This week in Valencia he too kicked off his campaign with some fireworks -- he needed just two sets and less than two hours to dispatch fourth seed Juan Monaco, and with always tricky Philipp Kohlschreiber out with his own opening round loss, things looked good for the Aussie to advance. But qualifier Ivan Dodig had other ideas -- firing off ten aces the world #110 survived a second set surge from Hewitt and closed out the decider with three breaks of serve. Lleyton might not be down for the count quite yet, but he'll need to raise his game to new level in the upcoming season if he's going to make another push into the sport's elite.

And while these guys may be running on fumes, one veteran decided to call it a career this week. Juan Carlos Ferrero announced last month that Valencia would be his final tournament, and immediately you could see the tennis world mourn. The thirty-two year old Spaniard and 2003 champion here had a couple comebacks since he first hit the scene. He reached his first Grand Slam final ten years ago in Paris, returned the next year to win the title and was a runner-up in New York later that season, pushing him to #1 in the world. A sickness and injury-plagued 2004 took him well out of the spotlight -- he didn't win another title until 2009 in Casablanca -- but he didn't give up there. From out of the top hundred, he climbed to #14 less than a year later, claimed four more trophies in the next two years and reached at least the fourth round of three Majors. He struggled with more injuries the last year and a half, and with just five wins on the season, it seemed time to go. JCF put up a fight against countryman Nicolas Almagro in his first round in Spain, actually getting a solid seventy-plus percent of first serves in. But his younger, sprier counterpart was able to get the better of him, and fans were forced to say good-bye to the graceful star.

Whether they play on or have already called it quits, no one can say any of these guys didn't fight 'til the end. Wherever they stood or stand in the rankings by the time they formally retire, we've seen them put in some big results throughout their time on Tour, and the titles and the records may not do justice to what they've accomplished. Unfortunately this is not a career anyone can have forever, and we will eventually see all these guys go. And what they've left behind shows just how great they are.

Looking for the Turnaround

As is often the case at some smaller tournaments during the tennis season, this week's events give some players who've been a bit out of the spotlight recently a chance to remind us of their relevance. Some have been grinding their way back onto the scene for weeks and months, while others have had such a stroke of bad luck they've become more known for their losing streaks. But with their performances this week, they all have a chance to put their years back on track.

Alejandro Falla is one of those players who can put up a good fight here and there, threaten the big stars from time to time, but eventually doesn't make much of a mark. In 2010, remember, he had a two-set lead on Roger Federer in his Wimbledon first round, but eventually fell in a bagel in the fifth. This year he beat John Isner at the All England Club, but was winless in Tour main draws after that. He came to Kuala Lumpur unseeded, having dropped eleven ranking spots in the past week, but after his opening round win over Rajeev Ram, he might have brought some confidence back to his game. He'll next meet Alexandr Dolgopolov, seeded fourth but admittedly spotty all year, so the Colombian has a chance to pull off an upset, and possibly put him on a more consistent upswing.

Albert Ramos has arguably made a bigger statement at various moments this year. He has yet to win a title, but made the Casablanca final back in April. With wins this year over Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet and Fernando Verdasco, you know he can hold his own, but he's barely won a handful of matches since Rome. He had an easy first round in Malaysia, needing just an hour to dispatch qualifier Julian Knowle, and will certainly have a tougher match against third seeded Kei Nishikori next. But if Ramos can raise his game and harness the strength we saw earlier in the season, he might just get the upset.

A little more is at stake for former world #3 Nikolay Davydenko. Possibly nearing the end of his career, the veteran Russian has struggled to come back from injury that ended a streak of huge wins over Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal nearly three years ago. But he's not giving up quite yet -- he's made three semis this year, most recently last week in Metz and opened his Kuala Lumpur campaign with a straight-set win over lucky loser Sanam Singh. He escaped a meeting with a seed in his next round -- Denis Istomin took care of Pablo Andujar for him -- but if he's going to make a serious push to get back into the sport's elite, he'll have to take advantage of the the road that's opened up for him here.

Over in Bangkok some higher profile names are trying to get back in the conversation. Fernando Verdasco has made big strides already this year -- having fallen to #27 in the world on the heels of a weak 2011, he made his way to the final in Acapulco, put together a solid clay court season, and even stunned 2010 Madrid champ Rafael Nadal on the weird blue clay in Spain. He hasn't beaten anyone in the top twenty since then, though, and has slid a few spots back down the rankings. He was tested by Tatsuma Ito in his first round this week, dropping the opening set before rebounding for the win in three. A couple more wins in Asia could turn the dial squarely back in his favor.

Even more in need of momentum, though, is his next opponent. Donald Young was on a clear upswing this time last year, making the fourth round at the U.S. Open and following it up with a run to the final here. The 2012 season doesn't look much like that -- having started the year at #40 in the world, on the verge of becoming the next great American in the sport, Young then famously put together a string of seventeen straight losses from February through August. Though he did finally end the streak in Winston-Salem, he's still 3-22 on the year and now holds a ranking of #124 -- with 150 of his 460 total ranking points on the line in Thailand. He did manage a win over Yen-Hsun Lu in his first round Tuesday, but he's going to need to step up his game further -- another early loss won't make it easy for him to regroup.

Gael Monfils has proven to be a bit more resilient. The Frenchman had climbed to a career high #7 ranking a little over a year ago, but when a knee injury forced him to miss much of the spring and summer on Tour, he dropped out of the top forty. But he made a successful, dreadlock-free return in Metz last week, defeating Phillipp Kohlschreiber in the quarters and taking Andreas Seppi to the limit in the semis. He needed all three sets today too to take out Kevin Anderson, and with the win earned a spot against sixth-seeded Victor Troicki in the second round. It would be an on-paper upset, but Monfils seems to be playing above his ranking and could just "surprise" us with another deep run here.

There's a lot on the line for all these guys -- a good showing during the Asian swing could give them a lot of momentum going into next year, but a bad run could be devastating, for some more than others. Hopefully these athletes can make a statement this week, but if not, they'll need to regroup quickly if they want to prove they've got more fire left in them.

The Graveyard

The summer hardcourt stretch is usually one of the more brutal periods of the tennis season -- it's hot, it's humid, it's hard on your body. But players, at least the top ones, usually get more of a chance to pick and choose events, take a week off to recover here and there, and pace themselves better between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. This year, on the other hand, the calendar has been especially rough, and more than a few high-profile casualties have been claimed.

Of course there was an Olympic elephant in the room, jamming the back half of the summer with three big tournaments back-to-back-to-back just before the final Grand Slam of the season. The London event isn't wholly to blame, of course, but the tight and tense schedule has taken a toll on the field. So far in Cincinnati, four players have retired mid-match, this after the likes of Maria Sharapova, Ana Ivanovic and John Isner pulled out of the draws entirely. And that's not even the worst of it -- Rafael Nadal yesterday disappointed a legion of fans when he announced he wasn't fit enough to play in New York, and earlier today Gael Monfils, absent from Tour since early May with knee issues of his own, did the same.

It does make you wonder, then, if everyone's efforts are worth it. Tommy Haas, left off the German team in London, has played every week since Wimbledon -- every week but one in fact since Roland Garros -- but fell in the second round in Cincy. And Olympic Bronze medalist Juan Martin Del Potro, who dismissed Haas Wednesday, battled a wrist injury today to get a three-set win over Viktor Troicki -- makes you wonder if he can last another round here. Even Serena Williams, riding a three-title win streak, was nursing a back strain on Tuesday and had trouble closing out against world #121 Eleni Daniilidou. In her match against Urszula Radwanska today, she was broken four times -- by comparison, she lost serve just once at the Olympics.

But while these guys struggle, there are of course those looking to pick through the remains of these fallen and broken stars and come out on top. Montreal titleist Petra Kvitova has already won more hardcourt matches this summer than she even played last year, suggesting she might have found a way to lick the asthma that plagued her in the latter half of 2011. And reigning U.S. Open champ Sam Stosur, two-and-four since Wimbledon, slogged through a nearly three hour match against Anabel Medina Garrigues Tuesday. Up a set and a break on Ekaterina Makarova now, she might be making that late-August push as she preps to defend.

A few men are also looking to take advantage of their opportunities. Mardy Fish, hobbled by illness for much of the first half of the year, seems to have found his groove again. He's dropped a bit in the rankings, but notched his only top-ten win of the year last week in Toronto. He's only been broken once in his first three matches year and looks poised for a quarterfinal meeting against Roger Federer -- the four-time champion is already up a break on Bernard Tomic in his third round. That's no easy draw, of course, but Fish has given the Great Fed a challenge more than once recently, so the outcome is far from certain.

More impressive, however, might be the run of Nikolay Davydenko in Cincinnati. The former world #3 has fallen well out of the spotlight the last few months, making it past the second round of a tournament just once since late March. Now almost out of the top fifty, he fully dominated DC champ Alexandr Dolgopolov in his opener, converting five of ten break chances and winning almost two-thirds of all the points. He followed it up with a similarly one-sided victory over Florian Mayer and will tonight face last year's runner-up Novak Djokovic. Clearly he's the underdog in that match, hasn't beaten the recent #1 since 2009, but the Serb has been pretty busy this summer and could be caught off guard.

As usual some players are primed to pounce on any chance created for them, and with so many falling by the wayside, the opportunities are particularly plentiful. For a few looking to turn their seasons around, it's a chance to get in a couple big wins before the year's last Major. And if they can do it, there might be a hugely different dynamic in place when we get to New York.

Winding Down?

We're getting to that part of the men's season where much of the London field has been decided and the couple remaining contenders are fighting to rack up a couple extra points here and there before the last few Masters events of the year. But even those players who have no possibility of making a trip to the O2 have reason to keep fighting -- some are looking to follow through on recent successes, while others need to get their games back on track after losing the momentum that was once so clearly on their side.

It hasn't been all successful -- one-time world #3 Nikolay Davydenko continues to struggle post injury -- though he was able to reach the semis last week in Moscow, he got bagelled in his second set in Vienna yesterday, ultimately losing the first round to qualifier Steve Darcis. And surprise Australian Open quarterfinalist Alexandr Dolgopolov may be at a career high ranking, but after his drubbing by Dudi Sela on Monday in St. Petersburg he's now lost three opening matches in his last four events.

Big-serving Kevin Anderson is trying to turn his year around. Though he's just a shade off a career-high ranking, he hasn't won more than two matches at any event since March. Many of his losses have come at the hands of top-twenty players, or better -- Novak Djokovic, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfils are among the South African's vanquishers this year -- but it's still been hard for him to get traction since taking his maiden title in Johannesburg. So far in Vienna, though he seems to have found his game again. Already notching twenty-two aces this week, he had a straight forward win over Andreas Haider-Maurer on Monday and followed up by downing always-tricky Marcos Baghdatis in straight sets. This is where he can get into trouble, though, as his next opponent, either Jurgen Melzer or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, could present a challenge. But he'll have to power through if he's going to re-establish himself as a force next year.

More interesting, though, might be the re-emergence of veteran Tommy Haas. Once the #2 player in the world, he remained a force until hip surgery nearly two years ago cut his 2010 season way short. He started playing singles again at Roland Garros and won his first match of the year against Michael Berrer in Newport back in July. And though he made a surprising run to the third round at the U.S. Open, it wasn't until this week he managed to put together more than a few wins back-to-back. As a wildcard in the qualifiers, he took out Matthias Bachinger to make the main draw and immediately upset fifth seed Juan Ignacio Chela. Today he came back from a set down against fellow qualifier Aljaz Bedene to make the quarters, the first time he's gotten that far at a tournament in over two years.

Over in St. Petersburg Alex Bogomolov Jr. is having the year of his career. Though he first emerged on the scene at the start of the last decade, some personal troubles -- a divorce from fell tennis player Ashley Harkleroad and a suspension for doping in 2005 -- kept him from making a real impact on Tour. But already this year he's beaten Andy Murray in Miami and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Cincinnati. The seventh seed came to Russia, incidentally where he is a dual citizen, ranked #36 in the world, also just off his career high. After stomping down Igor Kunitsyn in his first match, he withstood a late surge by Philipp Kohlschreiber today to get the win earlier today. That gives him entry to his sixth quarterfinal of the year, proving his recent run was no flash in the pan.

Marin Cilic is trying to accomplish a similar feat, though his greatest successes are far less recent. A top-ten player last year, he hasn't won a title since February, 2010 and lost five opening round matches this year. But he's been trying to reverse that run recently and made the finals in Beijing earlier this month. He's fallen a bit in the rankings, but retained the fourth seed in St. Petersburg and today rebounded after losing his first set to Somdev Devvarman to get the win after two-plus hours of play. He also benefits from a lack of viable seeds in his section of the draw, so could make a very legitimate run for a title.

It's too late for any of these guys to hope their seasons will be extended this year, but it's still important for them to make a stand before they begin their 2012 campaigns. If they kick off next year like they're trying to end this one, there's no telling where the momentum will take them.

The Masters

Okay, so the tournaments contested this week may not boast the highest level grade, but that didn't mean the players holding the trophies at the end of the day weren't the best quality. With the early rounds of an actual Masters event underway a few hundred miles away, we saw the same quality play -- or better -- at the championship matches of 250s in the rest of Europe.

At the BMW Open in Munich, defending champion Mikhail Youzhny lost early and the man he beat last year, Marin Cilic, exited a round later. And that allowed 2004 winner Nikolay Davydenko to power through the draw and earn his first title in more than a year. Seeded seventh at the tournament thanks to a long climb back from an injury-addled 2010, the former world #3 saw his biggest challenge in the second round, finding himself just two points from a loss to Julian Reister. But he was back in form after that and didn't lose another set on his way to the final.

There he met hometown favorite Florian Mayer, a talented right-hander who was playing in his third career clay-court final. He'd made a nice run a few weeks back to the fourth round in Miami, but didn't face a single player ranked higher than him in Munich. He must not have been up to the challenge posed by his twenty-title opponent on Sunday. Though Mayer was able to even the score in the second set, converting his one break point opportunity, Davydenko came through in the decider, winning nearly seventy-five percent of his service points and never giving the German a look at the lead. And after just under two hours it was Nikolay holding the crown and reminding us all that he's still a force to contend with.

Speaking of forces, red-hot Novak Djokovic proved he was in no hurry to end his winning streak when he took to the courts in his own homeland of Serbia. He was clearly the favorite at the tournament he owns and was barely challenged on the way to his fifth championship match of the year.

On the other side of the draw a resurgent Feliciano Lopez finally began looking comfortable again on clay -- it was only the second tournament of the year in which he'd advanced past the second round. In Belgrade, though, he fought his way through three tough opponents to start his campaign -- veteran Juan Monaco, Fernando Gonzalez, making his own comeback, and fourth seeded Albert Montanes. But Djokovic was too much to handle in the final -- the world #1 was within arm's reach during the first set, squeaking out a win in a tiebreak, but took control in the second, winning all but one of his first serve points and eventually improving his record on the year to 27-0 -- exactly the kind of mark he'd want before making his way to Madrid.

But perhaps the biggest statement was made in Estoril, where two A-listers clawed their way to the final. Second seeded Fernando Verdasco, whose play has been lackluster most of the year, found a way to win early in Portugal, and got a huge reprieve in the semis when, after a rain-induded double-header, Milos Raonic -- already twice his vanquisher this year -- retired with a back injury. In the bracket's top half, 2009 U.S. Open winner Juan Martin was playing his first clay court event in almost two years and showed his comeback was for real when he took out top seed Robin Soderling on his way to Sunday's match.

And he didn't slow down a notch when playing for the title -- though he was broken in his first game of the match, DelPo didn't look back again. He only allowed Verdasco to hold serve once in the opening set and took control early in the second. After just over an hour he'd claimed his ninth career crown and, somewhat surprising for an Argentine, only his third on clay. If you were writing him off as a threat for Roland Garros, you just might want to think again.

It was quite a rewarding week for all these guys -- Nole continues to close the gap between himself and the top spot in the sport, which both Nikolay and Juan Martin got themselves back into seeding territory for the upcoming Major. But more than that, they've re-established themselves as real powers on a surface where they haven't necessarily been forces before. And it should make a couple others out there sit up and take notice.

Back From the Dead

If you were thinking of giving up on the couple of players who've struggled to gain their footing post-injury, you might have to put your short bets on hold, at least a little while longer. Some have been back weeks or months, while others are setting foot on court for the first time in ages. But all are pulling off victories on clay that should get fans to take notice again.

Former world #1 Dinara Safina has been staging her comeback in fits and starts for a while now, and though she made a nice run to the fourth round in Indian Wells, it's been a long time since we've seen signs of the woman who made three Grand Slam finals in 2008 and '09. She's unseeded this week in Fes, but the Russian has managed to climb back into the top hundred over the course of the year. And given her drubbing of veteran Jill Craybas in the first round Tuesday -- she only dropped nine points on her own serve -- she might be climbing even further in the weeks to come. Next up she'll face Alize Cornet, another player who's fallen from elite status and one Safina has beaten in both their previous meetings. She should have plenty of confidence going into the match, and a win may set the stage for a much more successful clay court season.

Over in Stuttgart another player is trying to re-establish herself on Tour. Sabine Lisicki, who had risen into the top twenty-five less than two years ago, missed a big chunk of 2010 after an ankle injury she sustained at the BNP Paribas Open. She returned to the circuit in Cincinnati with minimal success, but finally started putting together back-to-back wins earlier this season, qualifying for Auckland and making the third round in Miami. This week in Germany, fresh off an impressive Fed Cup win over Christina McHale in the World Group Playoffs, she opened with a stunning win over feisty Dominika Cibulkova and followed it up with a straight set defeat of Australian Open finalist Na Li. It will get more difficult, of course, as a quarterfinal date with countrywoman Julia Goerges looms large on Thursday, but Lisicki is playing impressively again, and could make a legitimate run for this title.

On the men's side we've seen top-three player Nikolay Davydenko suffer all sorts of pain since a wrist injury reversed all the success he had in 2009. He made the finals in Doha this year, but still wasn't quite playing at his best and hasn't advanced past the second round of any tournament. He seems to have gotten back on track in Barcelona though -- after upsetting rising star Alexandr Dolgopolov in the first round, he survived a second set surge by Edouard Roger-Vasselin earlier today and has now made the quarterfinals, only his second of the year. He'll have a tough task against Nicolas Almagro, a man who could break the top ten with a win on Thursday, but the two familiar faces haven't played each other in almost four years, so Davydenko could take him by surprise.

Possibly even more impressive this week has been the run of uber-veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero, a one-time Roland Garros champion and former #1 who's launched so many comebacks that I've lost track. The Spaniard had been beyond lethal in the first half of last year, winning three clay court titles and clawing his way back into the top twenty before problems with his wrist and knee took him out of contention in August. Playing his first match since the U.S. Open in Barcelona this week, he quickly dismissed Xavier Malisse and then took care of Mischa Zverev on Wednesday. With a third round meeting against qualifier Simone Vagnozzi, you have to like JCF's chances to go further, and that may reiterate just how much he can still threaten through the spring.

Of course we can't expect all comebacks to proceed without a hitch, but the efforts all these guys and gals are putting forth sure gives me hope that they've caught their second -- and sometimes third -- wind. With a couple more victories under their belts they could not only put up a fight at their respective tournaments this week, but they might be able to change the course of the clay court season in their favor.

After all if we've learned anything it's that nothing is impossible this time of year.

The Princes & The Cinderellas

The first week of tournament play of the new year has certainly yielded some interesting results -- while so many of the top women in the sport fell early in their events making way for a couple fairy tale runs, the men brought their game all week and several of the sport's best advanced all the way to the championship rounds.

The first men's trophy of 2011 went, not surprisingly, to Roger Federer who ousted a resurgent Nikolay Davydenko in Doha. It was the world #2's third title in the desert after a five-year drought but, more importantly, it was his fourth title in his last five tournaments -- his fifth since Wimbledon. If the rest of the field didn't already have reason to fear Fed in Melbourne, they certainly do now.

But some no-less-important statements were made a little further east.

Over in Chennai, India, two-time defending champ Marin Cilic was dismissed early, but most of the other seeds advanced without too much drama. Sixth-ranked Tomas Berdych, who hadn't played very well to end the year, finally put together back-to-back wins again to reach the semifinals where he was eventually dismissed by Stanislas Wawrinka in straight sets. In the other half of the draw, a tough Xavier Malisse, who's been climbing his way back after a wrist injury that largely kept him out of contention for the last three years, advanced easily, only dropping one set in the semis to Janko Tipsarevic before making his first final since 2007.

Third-seeded Wawrinka found himself in a deficit early on Sunday, though, down 2-4 in the first set before knocking of wins in five of the next six games to capture the lead. But the Belgian raised his level in the second, winning every one of his first serve points, and only dropping two of his second attempts. He made good on his only break opportunity and was able to force the match into a decider.

But the third was all about the Swiss -- this time it was Wawrinka who displayed the superior serves, ceding only one receiving point to Malisse, and breaking his opponent twice to run off with the championship after more than two hours of play. It was Stan's third career title, and his first on a hardcourt -- certainly a good result as the world #21 tries to make a big mark at the Majors.

A little closer to Melbourne it was the very top seeds that made it to the finals at the Brisbane International. Defending champ Andy Roddick looked to be playing near his prime, surviving tough opponents in fifth seeded Marcos Baghdatis and big-serving Kevin Anderson to make the title match again. Meanwhile Robin Soderling, who'd only dropped serve once in his first four matches made good on his top billing and advanced to his seventeenth career final.

The Swede got off to a good start, breaking Andy early and winning the first set in just over half an hour. Things were tighter in the second, as the American saved a handful of break points early and kept his cool after a scuffle with officials over the rain. Eventually though, serving his sixteenth ace of the match, it was the tournament favorite -- now ranked fourth in the world -- who captured the crown. He won an amazing ninety percent of his first serves during the match and never faced a break point, securing his best-ever seeding at a Grand Slam.

But while the higher seeds lived up to expectations on the men's side, it was anything but for the ladies. In Brisbane none of the top three seeds made it out of the second round and the two eventual finalists took care of numbers four and five in the semis. Unseeded Andrea Petkovic made it through the top half of the draw without losing a set while Petra Kvitova, ranked just two spots below the German, took out big threats including Nadia Petrova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Dominika Cibulkova on the way to her third career final.

The two unlikely opponents had faced each other four times before, splitting their meetings, with Petkovic winning the last two. But Kvitova, a surprise semifinalist at Wimbledon last year, came out firing and broke Andrea in the first game of the match. She took advantage of weak serving from Petkovic -- both actually won more returning points than service points in the first set -- and took the opener in just over half an hour. Petko climbed out of an early hole in the second set, but the twenty-year-old Czech came back roaring and broke right back to close out her title.

And while it was a story of youth in Australia, it was a thirty-one year old veteran who triumphed down in New Zealand. Greta Arn took out three seeds in a row, including 2008 Australian Open champ Maria Sharapova, to make her first final since 2007. She earned the right to meet defending champion Yanina Wickmayer for the title, the only seeded woman to make a final this weekend.

But here again, the results were not to be expected. Arn who wasn't supposed to play in Auckland at all -- she only made it in the main draw after a couple higher-ranked players withdrew and saved five match points against Sophie Arvidsson in the second round -- was the better server all match, winning a much higher percent of her first serves and saving both break points she faced. Wickmayer, who struggled in Tour play at the end of last year, was out-maneuvered by the more experienced Hungarian and failed to defend her title after less than ninety minutes of play.

They were obviously solid wins for all players involved -- the top men re-established themselves as ones to watch Down Under, while some new faces emerged on the women's side as potential spoilers. Of course it's too early to tell how long these Cinderella runs and princely reigns will last, but if the action this week is any indication, we're in for a year of some great and exciting tennis.

Well Isn't This Interesting...?

While many of the world's top players packed up their suitcases to head Down Under in preparation for the Australian Open, a couple of the most elite stayed in the Western hemisphere to fight amid the desert in Doha. And with both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer entered in the ExxonMobil Open in Qatar, us fans started to get excited about the possibility of another match-up between the two greats.

We'll have to wait a bit longer.

For most of the week the seedings in Doha played out as expected. Seven of the eight top players made the quarters and the first four all reached the semis -- Rafa and Roger were joined by Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and defending champ Nikolay Davydenko. But despite their rankings, the ascent of the latter two was a bit surprising -- a knee injury took Tsonga out of contention after Monpellier while a nagging wrist fracture derailed what should have been a strong 2010 for the Russian and dropped him out of the top twenty for the first time in almost six years.

A promising run for Tsonga ended Friday when Federer took their semifinal match in less than an hour and a half. But Davydenko delivered the shock of the tournament a few hours later when he took on world #1 Nadal. He capitalized on weak serving by the Spaniard and broke his opponent's serve an amazing five times. He built a 5-0 lead in the second set and, though he allowed an ailing Rafa to get one break back and four more chances to even the set in the ninth game, the Russian eventually closed out the match in under ninety minutes.



It was the second straight time Davydenko had beaten Nadal in Doha -- they played the finals here last year -- and the third win in a row he's notched against the Spaniard. To successfully defend his title, of course, he still has to battle through a renewed Roger, though he's pulled off the one-two punch of beating both champions before -- and if he's healthy, he could very well do it again.

But whatever the result tomorrow, Nikolay has certainly put himself back on the radar for the Australian Open, which kicks off in just over a week. Ranked well below his ability, he could be in a position to pull off quite a few upsets and wreak havoc with the draw.

And I don't think anyone will be comfortable with Nikolay Davydenko in his path.

What to Watch in 2011

At this time last year I certainly didn't think we'd be where we are today.

I have to admit I would never have guessed that Rafael Nadal would rebound so strongly from injury to capture not one, but three Grand Slam trophies. I never would have thought we'd be hailing young Caroline Wozniacki as the best player in the women's game. And I certainly didn't guess some of the players who'd been such staples on Tour last year would fade into the background while some new stars made their own names stand out in the crowd.

So as we stand at the precipice of the latest New Year, I have to wonder what crazy surprises are in store for us in 2011. But given my terrible track record for making predictions, I've chosen not to make any outright calls just yet, but instead to focus on a couple trends and events I'll be keeping my eyes on.

And it all starts with one big elephant in the room.

• Serena's Return
• A Renewed Roger
• Murray at the Majors
• Follow Through
• Recovery from Injuries
• "I'm Not the Next Anyone"

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Serena's Return

Serena Williams sustained one of the strangest injuries I've heard of this year -- and it wasn't even on a tennis court! While out on the town in Germany, she stepped on a broken beer bottle and severed a couple tendons in her right foot. The injury and subsequent surgery was more serious than anyone realized -- the Australian and Wimbledon champ was forced to pull out of both the U.S. Open and year-end championships and just last month said she wouldn't be defending her Melbourne title. At this rate, it looks like we'll have to wait until at least spring thaw for her return.

It is a shame that the former world #1 has missed so much of the year -- without her something certainly has been lacking from the women's Tour. Yes, Serena is often so dominant at the Majors that it's almost boring to watch her games -- her nine aces and 94% first service win percentage made this year's final at the All England Club a one-hour rout. But when you actually pay attention to her form and her playing style you can see she's not just a power hitter. She's clearly a smart and hard-working athlete -- why else would she be on a practice court with her boot and a roller crutch?

Her opponents might breathe a sigh of relief during Williams' absense -- for many, they may never have as good a chance to win the big title -- but there's a downside to that apparent break too. Anyone who earns a Slam will have to defend against criticism that they didn't do so with Williams in the draw, and remember how poor Caroline Wozniacki had to spend the better part of fall proving that she deserved just the #1 seed in New York last August? When Williams is on the Tour, win or lose, no one can say they didn't earn their trophy.

That said, it might be time to acknowledge that we're entering the next generation of women's tennis. With the younger Williams sister closing in on thirty years of age, we will eventually have to contend with the reality that the family pair will not be around forever. But it would be nice to see the ladies who plan to step in get a few more chances to prove themselves against the vets -- after all, isn't the only way to improve to test yourself against the strongest players?

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A Renewed Roger

It feels weird to say that Roger Federer didn't have the greatest year. After all, he won a Grand Slam and the year-end championships, and though he finished 2010 a spot behind long-time rival Rafael Nadal, he did rack up an ever-impressive 65-13 record on the year.

But it's easy to see that his best play really came post-U.S. Open. After a hard-fought loss in the New York semifinals, he got revenge with a straight-set trouncing of Novak Djokovic in Shanghai and followed that up with back-to-back titles in Stockholm and Basel. Since the year's last Major he's compiled an impressive 21-2 record, far superior to anyone else in the top ten -- probably better than anyone in the sport, man or woman.

And with Roger playing at the top of his game again, you have to think fans and analysts alike will be clamoring for more chapters to the Federer/Nadal rivalry. Yes, they met twice this year -- once in Madrid, a kind of kick-off to the great year Rafa would have, and again in London where, even though he dropped a set, I don't think Roger ever was not in control. The matches will get tighter next year, I expect, and take place on some even grander stages. And when both are playing at the top of their game, which they inevitably will be, we know just how exciting it can get.

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Murray at the Majors

One man hoping to make his mark on that storied rivalry is Andy Murray. The #4 player in the world has already established a solid 4-9 record against Nadal and an even more impressive 8-6 mark versus Federer. And though he's never beaten Roger at a Slam, he has gotten the better of Rafa in both Australia and New York.

So now it's his chance to prove he can follow up one win with another -- in order to win a Slam you probably have to beat four top ten players in best-of-five matches at one tournament, a feat Federer has implied Murray is not yet capable of pulling off. In fact in his previous two Major final runs, he's beaten the sport's elite three times, most recently at the Australian Open when Nadal retired down two sets and a break. But an irritation inevitably creeps into Murray's game whenever he finds himself down, and until he finds a way to shake that, he won't perform consistently against the big guns, match after match.

Given the results we've seen from Murray in recent months, I have no doubt he's going to hit 2011 swinging hard. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to at least repeat his performance in Melbourne, but there might be some cause for concern if he doesn't come close, there or at subsequent Slams. Not that a Major title would be out of his reach forever -- at twenty-three he's got plenty of premier play left in him -- but he's gonna have to start proving himself soon if he wants to be taken seriously. After all, others have been able to crack the stranglehold Rafa and Roger seem to have on the Majors, so why shouldn't he?

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Follow Through

For a woman who only won one somewhat second-tier trophy in 2010, it's kind of amazing that Vera Zvonareva is now ranked #2 in the world. Sure she deserves it -- the girl made five additional finals and beat players like Francesca Schiavone, Caroline Wozniacki and Kim Clijsters along the way. She racked up a solid 49-18 record on Tour, better than her career average and, with runs to the championship matches at both Wimbledon and New York, easily put herself on the radar of all those pundits who didn't bother to know her game before.

The next step, of course, will be to see if her good form carries over to the new year. She's done a lot of hard work to get where she is -- at twenty-six, the ten-year veteran reached her highest rank much later in her career than, say, the Williams sisters or Maria Sharapova. It would be such a shame to lose her grip there so quickly. After all, she has a ton of points to defend -- something that hasn't seemed so important to her in the past -- and I would hate to think she's just now peaked.

On a similar note, Caroline Wozniacki has a whopping six trophies she gets to defend next year. And in her young career, we have yet to see if she has what it takes to be as consistent a force as some of her predecessors. The women's sport has been largely dominated by legends in the field, and though it might be too early to write off a return by players like Jelena Jankovic and Dinara Safina, I'm sure Wozniacki would much rather her name be remembered alongside the likes of Steffi Graf and Chris Evert.

And speaking of players looking to prove they were no flash in the pan...

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Recovery from Injuries

Injuries sidelined three of last year's biggest forces for almost all of 2010. Dinara Safina, who played in three Major finals in '08 and '09 and climbed to #1 in the world last April, was mostly a nonentity this year. Meanwhile previous London winner Nikolay Davydenko didn't rack up enough points to qualify for defense and U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro suffered a precipitous drop out of the top two hundred after wrist surgery kept him out of contention most of the year.

They'll all be back next year -- Dinara re-emerged with a spectacular post promising her return in Auckland, Del Potro will arrive in Australia with an injury-protected ranking and Davydenko, who got back on a winning track after the U.S. Open, should be able to improve his match play in the lead-up to Melbourne. After middling results in the few tournaments they entered in the latter parts of the year, they all should be in a better position to kick off 2011.

It's never fun to see such strong momentum stopped so abruptly, and all three of these guys know what a long slog it is to get into playing shape again -- something Serena is certainly dealing with herself now. Even though they've all had a couple shots back in the ring, it won't be until the start of the new season when we really see whether they're back in form. I wouldn't expect any big strides by Australia -- which could, of course, result in a bunch of ranking points going away -- but by the time we hit Indian Wells and Miami, we should get an idea of whether these guys can return to the top tier.

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"I'm Not the Next Anyone"

In tennis we have a bad habit of taking a player's performance at one tournament, or even in one match, and extrapolating that as a sign of his or her entire career. We're so eager to find "the next Jennifer Capriati" or "the next Boris Becker" that we don't let new players really develop their own games before dubbing them the future of tennis. This year's U.S. Open saw two break-out stars who didn't have quite the success of their predecessors, but who certainly did show a spark of their potential talent -- and, of course, the inevitable comparisons were soon to follow.

Eighteen-year-old Ryan Harrison had played a few Tour events during the year without making much of an impact. He did beat Taylor Dent in Indian Wells and make the quarters in Newport though, but it wasn't until New York that we really began to see this kid's potential. After battling through three qualifying rounds to make the main draw of only his second Major tournament, he stunned Indian Wells champ and fifteenth seed Ivan Ljubicic in his opener and held match points before falling to Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round. Thanks to his performance Harrison's ranking jumped a full fifty spots, and he was chosen to represent the U.S. in their Davis Cup rubber the following week, a nice boost to his still blossoming career.

Beatrice Capra, barely a month older than Ryan, had recorded most of her previous wins on the ITF Juniors circuit, winning titles in Brazil and Italy this year. She hadn't qualified for a Tour event yet in her career, but received a wildcard to the U.S. Open where she began her first Major campaign with a win over former top-twenty player Karolina Sprem. She backed it up with a solid three-set defeat of eighteenth seeded Aravane Rezai before getting shut out by Maria Sharapova in the third round. It wasn't quite as deep as Melanie Oudin's showing the previous year, but for a player ranked #371 in the world at the time, it wasn't exactly a disappointment.

Sure these two promising players are just getting their careers started, and their runs in New York certainly could signal good things to come. I expect a few solid wins from both on at the Challengers and on Tour in 2011 and, if not, likely in the few years down the road. But let's be careful not to confuse them with anyone else who's come before them -- keep a watch on these young talents, but don't force them onto center stage too quickly.

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Well it's been a long and exciting year, but it sure has left us hungry for more top-notch action in 2011. We've spent the last twelve months laying the groundwork for what can be an even more interesting season, and it's impossible for any of us to know what's going to happen. All we can do is hope that everyone on Tour does their best to entertain and astonish us on the courts.

Of course we may be disappointed in some of our expectations, but that doesn't mean all hope is lost -- tennis is so often a sport of redemption, and it might just be a bit longer for these guys to fulfill their potential.

And in the meantime, I can't wait to see what they -- and everyone else -- have to show us.

Nothing to Lose

I realize that most of my posts lately have been centered around last ditch efforts by the men to qualify for their year-end championships in London, but since the field was locked in earlier today, it's probably time to focus on a few others.

Last year's champ at the ATP finals, Nikolay Davydenko hasn't played a lot this year, and he's won even less. Though he precariously holds on to his #11 ranking, that will quickly change when he sheds the points he won here in 2009 -- after beating both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer during his Doha title run, he's only compiled a 23-18 record on the year and hasn't even played someone in the top ten since January.

But though his hopes of title defense are long gone, he's certainly not giving up on the year. In Paris he pounded a tough Thomaz Bellucci in less than an hour, losing only three service points in the second set, and earlier today he rebounded after finding himself behind first-time London qualifier Tomas Berdych and won the match with a bagel in the third set. The win got him back into the quarters of the tournament he won in 2006 -- his first Masters title -- and reminded us of the talent that I sure hope we get to see more of next year.

Montpellier titleist Gael Monfils has shown sporadic bursts of that same talent, often concerned more with entertaining or just plain showing off for the crowd than with actually winning a match. Still he's spent most of the last two years among the top twenty men in the world, and is inching ever closer to that final eight.

He missed it again this year, but he sure is playing like he still has a chance. After squeaking by Benjamin Becker in his Paris opener -- the qualifier led by two breaks in the first set -- he downed London hopeful Fernando Verdasco while he was trailing by a set and a break. The runner-up in 2009 will have a hard time repeating that run, but if he comes close we might start to take the jokester a little more seriously.

But the man really giving his all in Paris this week is a different hometown hero whose name hasn't ever entered the London discussion. World #34 Michael Llodra is just a shade off his career high ranking and is probably best known for crashing into a ballgirl last year at Wimbledon. And though he has five titles to his name -- two, in fact, this year -- at thirty years of age he's probably past his tennis prime.

But this week he played a solid first round against Potito Starace and actually out-aced John Isner in the second round. Earlier today he survived a tight tiebreak in the first set before rolling through the second against defending champion Novak Djokovic. It was his third win against a top ten player this year, but probably his most impressive, and helped him to what's easily his best performance at a Masters event. While it's too late to dream of making a London push, Llodra has certainly given the French Davis Cup coach a reason to reconsider his options for that final.

It's not unusual to see players put up their best performances when all the pressure is off -- when you have nothing on the line, it's a lot easier to go for broke. And though plenty of big hitters still remain in the Paris field, making it difficult to dub any of these guys a trophy favorite quite yet, they sure have given us all something to think about -- and a couple of people something to fear.