The Final Countdown

We're officially in the last stretch of this abbreviated and infinitely strange 2020 tennis season, with the last big event before the ATP Finals now underway. And with so few opportunities for players to make really big statements this year, perhaps it's no surprise that such a diverse field is hoping to close out 2020 with a strong performance at the Paris Masters.

Maybe somewhat surprisingly, all four of last week's finalists are back in the draw this week. John Millman, fresh off his first career title in Nur-Sultan, opens his campaign against a tough Miomir Kecmanovic and could next face U.S. Open finalist Alexander Zverev, who, despite two straight titles in Cologne, finds himself embroiled in scandal yet again this year. And Adrian Mannarino, who he beat yesterday, looms as a potential third round.

Meanwhile Vienna (🙏) Cinderella Lorenzo Sonego, a lucky loser who jumped to a career high #32 ranking with a stunning victory over Novak Djokovic last week, starts in Paris against tricky server Alexander Bublik. And Andrey Rublev, who booked his first ticket to the year-end championship by winning the title in Austria, has a second round date with Radu Albot. He's trying to earn an inspiring sixth title this year.

Congratulations, @AndreyRublev97!#ErsteBankOpen pic.twitter.com/fRyQ1ItfWy

— Erste Bank Open (@ErsteBankOpen) November 1, 2020

Then there's under-the-radar Ugo Humbert, who picked up his second trophy of 2020 in Antwerp a few weeks ago and extended his win streak today by outlasting Casper Ruud in three sets. For his efforts, he'll be awarded a second round against second seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.

But there are a couple players in the field who are trying less to keep their recent momentum going, and more to turn around their luck. There are plenty to choose from, from David Goffin to one-time U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic. But highest on my list is Daniil Medvedev, who I thought last year would be virtually unstoppable against the top players. He's been rather lackluster in 2020, making the semis at the U.S. Open, but losing his first round at Roland Garros. He could potentially face off against Kevin Anderson, who beat him last week in Vienna, in the second round and while the South African is certainly well of his best game, he might be able to pull off an upset.

And of course, I can't leave out Diego Schwartzman, who's certainly won a lot of hearts with his performance this year. The Argentine, who stunned Rafael Nadal in Rome and made the French Open semis, has the ATP Finals in his sights for the first time in his career and would clinch it with a final appearance in Paris. He hasn't suffered a lot of upsets recently and with Medvedev the only other seed in his quarter, he could make a real play for the finish line.

Of course, there are a couple notable names absent from the Paris Masters draw this year, which could create some opportunities for spoilers. Some of that comes down to the COVID-altered ranking methodology, which allows players to count points from the better of their performances at an event in either this year or last. That's why Novak Djokovic, who won the title last year in Paris, had no incentive to defend those points and chose instead to lock in a year-end #1 with a couple wins in Vienna last week. Then there are players like Dominic Thiem, injured during his quarter final last week, who pulled out just before the draw was announced, and Gael Monfils, red-hot before the shutdown and winless since, who said he was ending his season last week.

Can the slew of lucky losers in the draw take advantage of those openings? Could top seeded Rafael Nadal take home his first hard court title in Paris -- how weird to think he's had such vastly different results in the same city?!

Whatever the case, it'll be interesting to see if these players can close out the year on a high note. While, at the end of the day, their performances may not be what we remember most about 2020, for each of them, this is a great opportunity to start to write a new story.

A Week to Remember

There are still a couple weeks left for the guys this tennis season, but as we've learned it's never too late to make a stand. And this week, even the men who came in second place have something to be proud of.

It's been a bit of a disappointing year for 2014's unexpected U.S. Open winner -- after taking a few months off to nurse an injury, he spent some time getting his groove back. Though he made a couple deep runs at tournaments here and there, and even got all the way back to the semis in New York, he didn't score one win over a top-ten player all season and was utterly dismantled by Novak Djokovic in Flushing Meadows. But this week he had a chance to put that all behind him -- returning as the defending champ in Moscow, the Croat had one last opportunity to reclaim a title this year. He stumbled early against Denis Istomin, but got through later rounds without much of a struggle, ultimately reaching his first final of the year on Sunday. There he met second seed Roberto Bautista Agut, another man who's had his own troubles following up his breakthrough 2014 and has seen his ranking fall from a career-high #14 this time last season to out of the top twenty-five now. He had a decidedly tougher route in Russia too, facing off against an always-tough Philipp Kohlschrieber in the semis, but he too got through the challenge to set up a repeat of last year's championship match. And Cilic took the lead this time too -- grabbing the only two breaks of the match, the top seed was able to finish off his opponent again in straight sets and capped the year the way he must have hoped to have started it. And if he's able to stay healthy this time, there's no reason he won't be able to make up ground in the months that come.

Over in Vienna David Ferrer also capitalized on his top seed -- after dealing with his own injuries this year, the one-time Roland Garros runner-up seems to have more than gotten his form back. Since skipping Wimbledon and losing in the third round in New York, he picked up career title #25 in Kuala Lumpur and reached the semis in Beijing. He dropped a set early this week at the Erste Bank Open, but nevertheless made it to his fifth final of the year without breaking a sweat. But the real story here might have been the surge we saw from eventual finalist Steve Johnson -- the young American has long been on the outskirts of the sports elite, but this year has finally been making a play to get some more consideration. He made it to the semis in DC with wins over Bernard Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov and took out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Winston-Salem too. This week, still outside of seeding territory, he stunned U.S. Open standout Kevin Anderson and took out a seemingly-revived Ernests Gulbis on Saturday. In his first ever ATP final he even ran off to an early lead against Ferrer, grabbing the first set off the heavy favorite -- but even though he did eventually lose the closer-than-you-might-imagine championship match, he might have finally proved he's got what it takes to hit with the big boys. And as he starts to prep for the new year, there may never have been a better time for him to do it.

Second place didn't seem so bad in Stockholm either. Top seed Tomas Berdych prevailed here too, picking up his second title of the year and solidifying his case for another post season appearance. But the bigger breakthrough in Sweden came for another young American, Jack Sock -- the twenty-three year old may be more decorated in doubles, but he's also making a stand on the solo circuit, winning his first career title early this season in Houston and putting up a nice fight against Rafael Nadal this year in his French Open fourth round. He'd risen up the rankings enough to earn himself a seventh seed this week, but he outdid even those expectations, staying strong against an always feisty Fernando Verdasco before taking out two heavy favorites, Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet, to make Sunday's final. Like his compatriot in Austria, he also put up a fight in the championship, getting a break early to start the match. And while he wasn't able to keep his momentum going quite so long, he certainly shown he can give the top guys a run for their money. And if he can take that confidence with him into the new season, there may be many more -- and bigger -- rewards to come.

Finish With a Bang

With the 2014 ATP almost wrapped up, there was not a lot of time left to nab the last few spots left at the London finals. But this weekend a couple guys on the cusp, who'd been a little more quiet than usual, made a real play for the year-end championships, and one clinched his first ever trip to the O2 to cap off what's so far been the best year of his career.

Tomas Berdych was looking to make up for some middle-of-the-road results throughout most of the year. The world #7 had picked up a title in Rotterdam early in the year, but he lost the couple other finals he played this season, one inexplicably to sub-fifty player Carloq Berlocq in Oeiras. But this week in Stockholm, he was one of the few favorites to survive some early carnage -- Kevin Anderson lost his opener to Bernard Tomic and Alexandr Dolgopolov was taken down too by Adrian Mannarino. And even though the top seed did reach Sunday's final, he was sure to be challenged by Grigor Dimitrov, who'd been staging quite the coming-out party all year. The Bulgarian actually took the first set, but Berdych rebounded strong in the next two, never allowing a break opportunity and dropping just a handful of points on serve. After just under two-and-a-half hours the Czech had ended what seemed like a long losing streak and finally came out on top again, holding his spot as #7 on the London leaderboard, and taking one more step toward his fifth straight appearance at the year ends.

Andy Murray has had a longer history at the London finals, but for most of the year it seemed like he might not make it here. Having skipped the event last year after surgery he had a slow-for-him start to the year, fell out of the top ten after the U.S. Open and didn't pick up his first title of the year until last month in Shenzhen, even then almost losing to Tommy Robredo in the final. He had a much stronger showing this week in Vienna, though -- somewhat luckily meeting each of his opponents right after they struggled through long three set matches. He did drop the first set to David Ferrer in the final too, risking another loss to the man who knocked him out of the Shanghai Masters just a week earlier, but he too rallied from the early deficit and battled through a break-filled decider before ultimately scoring the win. Now eighth in the race to London, he's in the best position he's had all year to qualify for his seventh season championship.

Marin Cilic has come close to qualifying for London in the past, but after the stunning year he's had in 2014, this seemed to be his best opportunity. The world #8 lost the final in Rotterdam to Berdych, but won titles in the weeks before and after. His real victory, of course, came just a few weeks ago when he shocked Roger Federer and then Kei Nishikori to take the U.S. Open crown, his first Grand Slam title, propelling him into the sport's elite. In Moscow this week, he was the second seed, but became the favorite once Milos Raonic fell in his opener. And in the final against Roberto Bautista Agut, another of the year's breakthroughs, he rose to the occasion again -- the only one of this weekend's champions who wasn't pushed to a third set in the final, he denied the Spaniard on all six break opportunities and closed out the win in under ninety minutes. The proved the Croat wouldn't be satisfied resting on his New York laurels and sealed his entry to his first London final. And given the way he's played all year, there's no reason to think he won't be a force in it.

This weekend's winners may not have had the most consistent results all year long, but they sure knew how to up their game when it counted. Rounding out the season with a couple big wins put their names back on the map as time ticks down to the London final. And with just a few weeks left in 2014, there may have been no better time to do it.

Closing Arguments

The field for the ladies' year-end championships is set already, but with a few weeks left for the men, some of the sport's top players are making their final push to qualify. And a couple made quite a case for themselves this week.

Andreas Seppi may not be in contention for one of the eight spots in London, but after the year he's had already it might not be long before he is in that conversation. The twenty-eight year old took a set from Roger Federer in Doha and beat John Isner in Rome. He won a title in Belgrade -- the second of his career -- but perhaps his biggest accomplishment came at Roland Garros. Ranked #25 at the time and already having endured two five-set matches to make the fourth round, he took a two-set-to-one lead on top-seeded Novak Djokovic, before finally succumbing.

And this week in Moscow he brought exactly that kind of game. He lost just a handful of games in his first three matches, facing his biggest challenge in his opener against Igor Sijsling. Against Malek Jaziri in the semis Seppi needed just eighty minutes to get the win and reach his fourth final of the year. Meanwhile Thomaz Bellucci, trying to claw his way back up the rankings, went almost two-and-a-half hours on Saturday against big-serving Ivo Karlovic. The effort didn't seem to affect him in today's final -- at first. The Brazilian fired off eight aces to take the first set from Seppi, but his service game started to struggle in the second. The second-seeded Italian took advantage to force a tiebreak and, eventually, a deciding set in which he really raised his game. Dropping just four points on serve, Seppi kept his opponent off his game and finally closed out the win.

A little further east in Vienna Juan Martin Del Potro was doing his part to make his first year-end final since 2009. The tall Argentine started the year by re-cracking the top ten after a quarterfinal run in Australia. He followed it up with a final in Rotterdam and a title in Marseille. He made a couple other Major quarters, but the highlight of his season might have been a Bronze medal at the London Olympics, a feat he achieved after a heart-wrenching loss to Roger Federer in the semis. Now back at #8 in the world -- his highest ranking since dropping U.S. Open points in 2010 -- he is poised to make a real stab at the elite again.

There was a little bit of luck on DelPo's side this week in Austria -- seeded Benoit Paire and Robin Haas both lost their first round matches, and hugely volatile Jurgen Melzer bowed out in his opener a round later. DelPo was nevertheless tested in his campaign -- in a three-hour, three-tiebreak, sixty-two ace, no-break match against qualifier Daniel Brands, it took everything in him to notch even one win. Two rounds later he was challenged again, this time by tricky Gilles Muller who put together another ace-fest -- this time with a relative piddling thirty-three -- but again prevailed to reach his second final in Vienna. On the bottom half of the draw, though, qualifier Grega Zemlja was establishing himself as quite the giant killer. He'd taken out Xavier Malisse, recently resurgent Tommy Haas and world #9 Janko Tipsarevic on the way to his first ever championship match, each in a three-set match. But his run finally ended Sunday afternoon -- the Slovenian kept things close to start, but eventually DelPo's experience won out. Winning over eighty percent of his first serves and allowing just one break conversion, the top seed made good and marked his most prolific year since winning the U.S. Open.

In the meantime a couple other World Tour Final hopefuls were working their way through the draw in Stockholm. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ended last year on quite a high note, winning a couple titles after the U.S. Open and making the finals in Paris and London. He's won a few trophies this year too, but only posted one match against a top-ten player all season. Tomas Berdych, on the other hand, has put together a more impressive 5-11 record against the sport's elite, including a stunning victory over Roger Federer in New York. Just last week he put together a straight-set win over Tsonga in the Shanghai quarters -- the match was close though, sixteen aces, eighty-plus percent of first serves won, just one break. In Sweden Tsonga was out for revenge, but it would all be for naught.

The two top seeds in Stockholm worked their way through the draw with little drama. Tsonga didn't drop a set until the semis when Marcos Baghdatis pushed him to a decider before the Cypriot retired. Berdych faced a couple more seeds on his route and only lost serve once -- against world #11 Nicolas Almagro in the semis he didn't allow one break opportunity and converted three of his own. The Czech fell into a deficit in the final, losing the first set to Tsonga in just their fourth career meeting and then getting down a break too. But he rallied to take the second and kept things close in the decider. He had a couple chances to break for the title, and though Tsonga was able to save two match points, he ultimately double-faulted away the game and the match. The win put Berdych a little closer to securing his third straight trip to London, and kept Tsonga on the sidelines for just a little while longer.

Clearly not all of these winners will make the trip to London, and only a couple might have any legitimate shot at winning there. But their triumphs this week certainly do a lot to prove just how strong they really are and, if they can keep it up as the season winds down, there's no telling just how many more wins they have left in them.

Winding Down?

We're getting to that part of the men's season where much of the London field has been decided and the couple remaining contenders are fighting to rack up a couple extra points here and there before the last few Masters events of the year. But even those players who have no possibility of making a trip to the O2 have reason to keep fighting -- some are looking to follow through on recent successes, while others need to get their games back on track after losing the momentum that was once so clearly on their side.

It hasn't been all successful -- one-time world #3 Nikolay Davydenko continues to struggle post injury -- though he was able to reach the semis last week in Moscow, he got bagelled in his second set in Vienna yesterday, ultimately losing the first round to qualifier Steve Darcis. And surprise Australian Open quarterfinalist Alexandr Dolgopolov may be at a career high ranking, but after his drubbing by Dudi Sela on Monday in St. Petersburg he's now lost three opening matches in his last four events.

Big-serving Kevin Anderson is trying to turn his year around. Though he's just a shade off a career-high ranking, he hasn't won more than two matches at any event since March. Many of his losses have come at the hands of top-twenty players, or better -- Novak Djokovic, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfils are among the South African's vanquishers this year -- but it's still been hard for him to get traction since taking his maiden title in Johannesburg. So far in Vienna, though he seems to have found his game again. Already notching twenty-two aces this week, he had a straight forward win over Andreas Haider-Maurer on Monday and followed up by downing always-tricky Marcos Baghdatis in straight sets. This is where he can get into trouble, though, as his next opponent, either Jurgen Melzer or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, could present a challenge. But he'll have to power through if he's going to re-establish himself as a force next year.

More interesting, though, might be the re-emergence of veteran Tommy Haas. Once the #2 player in the world, he remained a force until hip surgery nearly two years ago cut his 2010 season way short. He started playing singles again at Roland Garros and won his first match of the year against Michael Berrer in Newport back in July. And though he made a surprising run to the third round at the U.S. Open, it wasn't until this week he managed to put together more than a few wins back-to-back. As a wildcard in the qualifiers, he took out Matthias Bachinger to make the main draw and immediately upset fifth seed Juan Ignacio Chela. Today he came back from a set down against fellow qualifier Aljaz Bedene to make the quarters, the first time he's gotten that far at a tournament in over two years.

Over in St. Petersburg Alex Bogomolov Jr. is having the year of his career. Though he first emerged on the scene at the start of the last decade, some personal troubles -- a divorce from fell tennis player Ashley Harkleroad and a suspension for doping in 2005 -- kept him from making a real impact on Tour. But already this year he's beaten Andy Murray in Miami and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Cincinnati. The seventh seed came to Russia, incidentally where he is a dual citizen, ranked #36 in the world, also just off his career high. After stomping down Igor Kunitsyn in his first match, he withstood a late surge by Philipp Kohlschreiber today to get the win earlier today. That gives him entry to his sixth quarterfinal of the year, proving his recent run was no flash in the pan.

Marin Cilic is trying to accomplish a similar feat, though his greatest successes are far less recent. A top-ten player last year, he hasn't won a title since February, 2010 and lost five opening round matches this year. But he's been trying to reverse that run recently and made the finals in Beijing earlier this month. He's fallen a bit in the rankings, but retained the fourth seed in St. Petersburg and today rebounded after losing his first set to Somdev Devvarman to get the win after two-plus hours of play. He also benefits from a lack of viable seeds in his section of the draw, so could make a very legitimate run for a title.

It's too late for any of these guys to hope their seasons will be extended this year, but it's still important for them to make a stand before they begin their 2012 campaigns. If they kick off next year like they're trying to end this one, there's no telling where the momentum will take them.

A Quick Shout Out

I know most of the attention over the weekend was being paid to the women's championships in Doha, but I just wanted to take a minute to congratulate the men who put up just as good a fight in their respective tournaments over the last several days. And as I've pointed out, some of the men were a bit surprising.

Though the ultimate result at the Bank Austria tournament wasn't such a surprise -- defending champion and world #12 Jurgen Melzer successfully reclaimed the title -- his opponent in the final got there under some interesting circumstances. Twenty-three year old Andreas Haider-Maurer had only one a single Tour-level match all year, but made a bit of a name for himself when he took two-time French Open finalist Robin Soderling to five sets in New York. Still, ranked only 157th in the world, he had to fight through the qualifying rounds and then wait for Ernests Gulbis to pull out of the main draw before earning entrée -- he'd actually retired from his last match in the qualies against Marsel Ilhan.

But something came over the Austrian when he hit the big boys' bracket. Pitted against veteran Thomas Muster in the first round, he was surprisingly unphased, beating the decorated champion in straight sets. He followed that up with a two-set, hundred-minute drubbing of second seeded Marin Cilic in the quarters and split the first two sets in tiebreaks to Melzer before ultimately losing the nearly three hour final. In addition to the $75,000 prize money he earned for the feat -- the purse more than doubled his year-to-date earnings -- he jumped forty two spots in the rankings and certainly put his name on the map as a real spoiler. Not bad for a week's work.

Over in St. Petersburg the top seed didn't fair quite as well in the finals. Mikhail Youzhny, the champion in 2004, was trying to caputre his third title of the year, but he was tested at almost every step along the way. He was down sets to both qualifier Evgeny Donskoy and eighth seed Victor Hanescu and saved several match points against a resurgent Dmitry Tursunov for the right to play Sunday.

Meanwhile his opponent, world #88 Mikhail Kukushkin, had a relatively easier time. After a tight first set against Jeremy Chardy in the first round he only dropped one game in the next two. He survived tests from Teymuraz Gabashvili and Janko Tipsarevic and eventually made his way to his first career final. And though he had been demolished in their only previous meeting, winning only three games in the 2009 Moscow semis, he virtually turned the tables this time around. Though he lagged top-ten Youzhny in first serve points and lost his own games twice, Kukushkin was able to break back four times and claimed his first trophy in his very first try.

With a far less impressive record is Gael Monfils who, despite his long run among the sport's top stars, had only won two titles in eleven final appearances. Admittedly after two tough rounds in a row -- he went three sets against both John Isner and countryman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Montpellier last week -- I didn't give him much of a chance against a relatively better-rested Ivan Ljubicic, a man with ten career crowns and one amazing run in Indian Wells this past March.

But Monfils surprised me in the championship match. Known more as a showman than an athlete who can actually perform under pressure, he finally showed the mental toughness he needs to win the big events -- up a set and a break, he allowed the thirty-one year old Ljubicic to even the score, but kept his service game strong and never allowed the Croat to get back in the match. In less than two hours he'd claimed the title, his second in his native country, and certainly showed that, if he keeps the antics to a minimum, he might be a real force.

A couple surprises and a couple surprise finalists this weekend, but some solid performances across the board. It's always nice to see that push so late in the season and it sure will be fun to watch them keep it up next year.

Back at Home

It's a long slog on the professional tennis Tour, so it should be no surprise that so many players opt to enter their home events, especially this time of year. Besides being close to family and friends, star athletes get the added benefit of almost unquestioned crowd support, while lesser-known, lower-ranked players are often able to secure wildcards for a chance to hit with the big boys.

It's not a perfect science, of course -- last week Elena Dementieva skipped the Kremlin Cup in her native Moscow to play in Luxembourg, and this week Nikolay Davydenko eschewed St. Petersburg in favor of the inaugural Montpellier tournament in France. But a quick look at the draws shows the vast majority of participants didn't have to travel far.

While Davydenko took the top seed at the Open Sud de France, moved from Lyon this year, he is closely followed by a couple hommes eager to show their stuff. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet lead the pack of twelve Frenchmen in the bracket, but qualifiers like Steve Darcis and Adrian Mannarino, both of whom won their first round matches, also are making a splash.

But some dark horse possibilities to take the title also lurk in the field -- though last year's runner-up Michael Llodra fell earlier on Thursday, there are still some threats left. Gilles Simon is coming off a win in Metz and pulled off a solid victory over marathon man Nicolas Mahut on Wednesday. Then there's 2006 champ Richard Gasquet who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Nice finals earlier this year. Now ranked back in the top thirty, you can't quite count him out.

Over in Vienna the biggest story, of course, was the return of forty-three year old Thomas Muster, a veteran champion who hadn't played a professional match since 1999. Though he lost his first round match to fellow Austrian Andreas Haider-Maurer, he certainly proved he can still keep up with kids nearly half his age.

But the hometown hero in the other half of the draw might hold better prospects. Top seeded Jurgen Melzer beat then-red hot Marin Cilic for the title in 2009 and began his defense with his highest career ranking of #12 in the world. Though he struggled against Lukasz Kubot, taking two tiebreaks and more than two hours, he survived the challenge and kept his campaign alive. With another potential battle against Cilic in the championship match, his run is certainly not clear and easy, but his chances look good.

Russians -- and former Russians -- are all over the draw in St. Petersburg, with 2004 champ Mikhail Youzhny leading the pack. But Dmitry Tursunov, once a top-twenty player, is continuing his own comeback after an ankle injury took him out of the top five hundred earlier this year. He made the quarters in Tokyo and survived a three setter against Michal Przysiezny in his opener in St. Petes. Earlier today he dismissed fourth seeded Yen-Hsun Lu and might have cleared his own path for a solid run here.

Maybe odds are stacked in the natives' favor, as they take up so many more of the slots in the field, but I'd look for these guys to make a nice dent in their home tournaments. Even if they can't bring back the ultimate trophy, they should be able to at least leverage their advantage for a few more wins.

And what better place for them to see such success.