Wimbledon Week Two Preview: Time to Sober Up

So things got a little crazy this first week at Wimbledon, and more than a couple of us are left holding our heads in agony, wondering if we're remembering things quite right. We've only just reached the point in the tournament where the favorites should be getting tested, but in fact barely half of those remaining are actually seeded. And while both world #1's are still alive, plenty of others in the draws might never have imagined they'd be standing the second week of this Major. But now we've had a full day to sleep off the last couple wild nights, and it's time we get really serious.

Odds-on favorite Serena Williams has looked unstoppable so far, as should be expected, and hasn't lost a set yet, while, somewhat surprisingly, last year's runner-up Agnieszka Radwanska has been on point herself, advancing to her fifth straight Slam fourth round. But that's not to say their fates are set quite yet. Sabine Lisicki, a semifinalist here two years ago, if she's playing at the top of her game, could give Williams a run for the money in their next round, while Tsvetana Pironkova, a Cinderella at the All England Club a couple times herself, might give Aga a tough time herself.

But the biggest opportunity may lie in the section of this half where no one is seeded. Kaia Kanepi, who made the quarters here three years ago as a qualifier, has struggled to come back from injury time and again, and has already taken out world #7 Angelique Kerber this past week. And hometown hero Laura Robson -- she who ended Kim Clijsters career in New York and then made the finals in Guangzhou, ousted tenth seeded Maria Kirilenko in her opener. She's never made the quarterfinal of a Major, but with the cards seeming to stack up in her favor this week, it might just be time for a real breakthrough.

The bottom half of the women's draw has a couple more holes poked in it. With both favorites Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova out by the second round, the top seed remaining is 2011 champion Petra Kvitova -- a winner here, yes, but also one who's won just two matches for every one she's lost this year. That could open the door for rising star Sloane Stephens or 2007 runner-up Marion Bartoli. But teenager Monica Puig might have some different ideas -- the nineteen-year-old Puerto Rican, who's fresh off a third round appearance at Roland Garros, opened by upsetting fifth seeded Sara Errani here. She, along with world #104 Karin Knapp, might be the least likely picks to make the quarters, but if we've learned anything from the first week at the All England Club, it's to expect the unexpected.

The men's draw, if you can believe it, has been even more decimated in the first week of play. Two-time champion Rafael Nadal crashed out in the first round while seven-time winner Roger Federer followed a match later. Their exits, plus that of 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt, leave Novak Djokovic as the only man in the field who's ever won a Wimbledon trophy. But Juan Martin Del Potro, winner in New York nearly four years ago and Bronze medalist here last summer, hasn't dropped a set yet. And French Open finalist David Ferrer, despite having hiccups here and there, will be eager to prove his run at Roland Garros was no fluke. But pressure might be most on 2011 quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic, who's already taken out big-serving Sam Querrey and tough-as-nails Richard Gasquet. A good run this year might cement his position among the sport's elite, instead of gaining him attention for the wrong reasons.

Meanwhile Andy Murray seems to have a clear path to the final in the bottom half of the draw -- the only other seeds in his section are #20 Mikhail Youzhny, who he's never lost to, and #24 Jerzy Janowicz, who'll be playing his first Major fourth round at this Wimbledon. This half is really more about the comeback stories. Jurgen Melzer, out of the top thirty now, hasn't made the fourth round at a Slam in over two years and has mostly faced clay court specialists in the first week, but might be on the verge of breaking through again at the All England Club. And Fernando Verdasco, well out of his top-ten ranking phase, is coming off a quarterfinal run in Eastbourne, and has gotten past Xavier Malisse, Julien Benneteau and Ernests Gulbis in his first three rounds. He may not be known for his lawn game, but he might be able to change that after this week ends.

But there are a couple other stories to tell in this half. Thirty-one year old Lukasz Kubot has benefitted from, first, the upset of Rafael Nadal and, second, the withdrawal of Steve Darcis, but backed up his good luck by ousting twenty-fifth seeded Benoit Paire in the third round. It's the veteran Pole's second trip to Wimbledon Week Two and, slated to meet fellow triple-digit-ranked Adrian Mannarino next, he could go farther still. It's hard to predict his future much beyond the next round, but in a half of the draw that's so incredibly wide open, he might not have a better opportunity to make a stand.

After a week of outrageous results and huge surprises, the second week of this Slam features some unfamiliar faces. And while this is precisely when the favorites should take the reins and remind us who's boss, the upstarts need to make sure their hangovers don't get in the way of the success they've had.

Because there's a lot on the line the next couple days, and something tells me we'll all want to remember what's coming next.

A Tale of Two Seedings

It's been an interesting couple days down in Melbourne -- with just a round and a half of play in the books at the Australian Open, a full quarter of seeded players have already been eliminated. And while some of those remaining have sailed through early matches, others have been struggling just to survive. And that could create some big opportunities for everyone who's left.

The Good

Things have been fairly easy for the top seeds, though that's not to say there hasn't been any drama. Maria Sharapova, winner here in 2008, hasn't dropped a game yet in her first two rounds; neither has Serena Williams, but the top American in either draw did take quite a tumble in her Tuesday match. She'll test that ankle in Day four against young Spaniard Garbine Muguruza who needed more than three hours to reach her first Major second round -- but considering Williams won eight straight games after her injury, it might be more of a pop quiz than a final exam. Other ladies have been just as strong -- Victoria Azarenka kept her record against potentially tough Monica Niculescu a perfect 5-0 and fourth seeded Aggie Radwanska, after trading breaks throughout her first set with wildcard Bojana Bobusic, eventually went on to win that set and the next three.

The favorites on the men's side have been similarly dominant. Two-time defending champion Novak Djokovic was pushed a bit in his first round by veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu, but came back strong to take out Ryan Harrison easily on Wednesday. The three other former Major winners in the draw have only played one match each so far, and none has lost a set. U.S. Open champion Andy Murray takes on little-known Joao Sousa in his second round while Juan Martin Del Potro, the 2009 titleist in New York, meets an always-feisty Benjamin Becker. They both should be able to get through these obstacles, though, but Roger Federer -- by far the most decorated of the group -- will likely face the biggest challenge when he faces former world #3 Nikolay Davydenko. The veteran Russian has been trying to stage a comeback the last several months, and while he could very well lose the match anyway, he's the most likely to put up a fight.

We've also seen some inspiring performances from those outside the top ten early on. Seven-time Major champion Venus Williams lost just one game in her opener and was similarly strong against one-time top-fifteen player Alize Cornet a round later. And Fernando Verdasco, a semifinalist here in 2009 and my Cinderella pick for his quarter, was tested early by French Open standout David Goffin, but rebounded quickly to take out veteran Xavier Malisse earlier today. They're both seeded on the low side, but it wouldn't be the biggest stretch to see either extend their runs a few rounds longer.

The Bad

It hasn't been all good news for the more favored, however. Eleventh seed Juan Monaco crashed out in the first round, last year's Cinderella Sara Errani fell in straight sets on Tuesday, and Nadia Petrova, one of the biggest surprises of last year, was summarily dismissed by uber-veteran Kimiko Date Krumm, barely notching a game on the scoreboard before making her exit. Others seemed to survive early challenges, though, only to crumble just when you thought they were safe.

Tamira Paszek was both one of the most promising and one of the most disappointing players of 2012. After making the quarters at Wimbledon, she faded quickly and was riding a four match losing streak as she headed to Melbourne. She'd horded away enough points to keep a seed here, but I was frankly and pleasantly surprised when she made it through her opener against Stefanie Voegele, a woman who had won three matches in Shenzhen. But Paszek's run wouldn't last -- it took less than an hour for seventeen-year-old Madison Keys to notch a win on Wednesday. The American upstart fired off twenty-three winners to her opponent's six, won three quarters of her net points, and dropped just three points on first serve. Paszek didn't have any points to defend in Australia -- the only Slam she'd had any impact on was at the All England Club -- but her quick exit doesn't bode well for her the rest of the season, so she'll want to turn her luck around as soon as she can.

Sam Stosur probably still has a lot more game left in her, but you might be questioning that, given her performances so far in 2013. The world #9 was oh-and-two coming into her home Slam, and struggled early against easily-overlooked Kai-Chen Chang in her opener. The woman from Taipei kept pace with Stosur early on Monday -- incidentally her twenty-second birthday -- serving for and to stay in the first set a few times. Eventually the favorite prevailed, but she'd be challenged again Wednesday by one-time Aussie semifinalist Jie Zheng, ironically, the same woman who beat her last week in Sydney. After dominating the second set to force a decider, Stosur was caught on the losing side of an hour-long third and was sent home early, yet again. This has certainly never been her best Slam, but I'm sure the Australian #1 was hoping to put in a slightly better showing Down Under this year. Hopefully she'll be able to right the ship before long -- it'd be a shame to lose such a strong talent so soon after she peaked.

The Ugly

Of course not all those who were challenged came out on the losing end of things, but that doesn't mean they weren't left bruised and battered nonetheless. Julia Goerges battled the sun as well as her opponent in Monday's first round against Vera Dushevina, while Jurgen Melzer, struggling over the last several months, held off 2012 Cinderella Mikhail Kukushkin in his opener and lost two tiebreaks to surprise Brisbane finalist Roberto Bautista-Agut before pulling out the win. But a few others kept their fans on the edge of their collective seat throughout their most recent match.

Jerzy Janowicz wasn't even on the radar at this time last year, but the big-serving Pole has cut his ranking from the sub-two hundreds to top-thirty thanks to a Cinderella run at the Paris Masters. Seeded for the first time at a Major -- he's only played in three total -- he comes to Melbourne with a lot to prove. After a fairly routine opener, though, he was really challenged. Near the end of a long first set against long-absent Somdev Devvarman, the young Jerzy began to lose his cool -- a lines call went against him, he yelled at the chair umpire, and was cited for unsportsmanlike conduct. He lost the second set, too, losing serve twice and unable to break in return, but finally started to settle down in the third. After four hours the twenty-fourth seed was finally able to close out the win, but if he's going to stand a chance against Nicolas Almagro in the next round, he'll have to make sure he stays on the ball from the start.

Janko Tipsarevic is famous for dropping the ball on the court -- one of Jerzy's victims in Paris, the Serbian #2 can be a little cranky when things don't go his way. He could have gotten in a lot of trouble early -- he opened against hometown favorite Lleyton Hewitt -- but ended up really being tested in the late-night match on Wednesday. He got off to a two-set-to-love lead on world #44 Lukas Lacko, but then seemed to get a bit too comfortable. The Slovakian took charge in the third set, got the lead in the fourth and even saved match points in the decider. But Tipsy pulled himself together just in time, finally breaking again and taking the match -- ultimately finishing with one point less than his opponent, actually. He's never made it out of the third round in Melbourne, though, so he'll have to bring it against Julien Benneteau in the next round, because if he doesn't things might get even uglier.

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As should be expected at the Majors, some seeds have lived up to expectations while others have fallen under the pressure. But the way everyone's playing, even those who've been dominating will need to step up their game while those who've just barely survived will feel the heat of more than just the Australian summer sun.

But the Slams are where we separate the men from the boys, so those who've struggled so far will need to shake those jitters fast. Because the favorites aren't ceding any ground in Melbourne, and it'll be up to them to prove they belong.

Men vs. Boys

There is of course a difference in sports -- and tennis in particular -- between the athletes who prove to be flashes in the pan and those that can deliver year-in and year-out. Some players can have a great run one week and, overwhelmed by the effort, fall early and often in the tournaments that come. But others, the real powerhouses, come back week after week and dominate the field. And the thin line that separates them marks a real distinction between winners and champions.

Jurgen Melzer isn't exactly a slouch, but his victory in Memphis last week came after a string of disappointing results. He probably had the right to be exhausted when he came to Delray Beach this week, after battling through three seeded players to take the title, but his loss to Tim Smyczek in his opener was nevertheless a surprise. His exit, though, may have cleared the way for others in the draw -- John Isner lost to Melzer in the Memphis quarters, but now will face a dangerous, but slightly less intimidating Bernard Tomic later today. And while Andy Roddick, trying to make his own comeback in Florida, may be able to gain some traction knowing the field is slightly cleared out for him.

Sofia Arvidsson, the other titleist in Memphis last weekend, was no more successful than Melzer when she came to Acapulco. Still well off her career-high ranking at #55 in the world, she was in seeding territory for the Abierto Mexicano. But though she got up a set against two-time winner Flavia Pennetta in their second round and could have closed out the match in a tiebreak, she ultimately succumbed 6-1 in the deciding set. Her exit could give the Italian a clear road to at least the final, as she looks to win her first title in nearly two years. But top seeded Roberta Vinci, who's quarterfinal run so far marks only the second time in 2012 that she's won more than two matches at one event, may have even more to prove. She's been spotty of late, but a good run here might put her back on the track that won her three trophies last year.

The men's draw in Acapulco also features one of last week's victors. David Ferrer, twice a champion here before, came to Mexico fresh off a title in Buenos Aires, and looks to extend his success during this season's Golden Swing. He's only lost a handful of games in his first two matches, and with many of his contemporaries getting upset he'll face no seeds through at least the semis. If everything goes as planned, he'd likely face Nicolas Almagro for the title, a rematch of last Sunday's championship match, but with a 9-0 record against his compatriot, something tells me Ferrer's streak is good to go.

Like Ferrer, Aggie Radwanska began this week on her own winning streak. With her title in Dubai, she came to Kuala Lumpur with an impressive 15-3 record on the year -- all three of those losses coming at the hands of current world #1 Victoria Azarenka. Playing some of the best tennis of her career, the Pole didn't drop a set in her Thursday double-header, beating both Akgul Amanmuradova and Karolina Pliskova in straight sets. There are, of course, still obstacles in her way -- Jelena Jankovic, one of the few remaining seeds left in Malaysia, took her to three sets in last week's semi -- but as Radwanska's star continues to rise, she should be able to handle the challenges she's dealt.

All that's not to say, of course, that sometimes spotty players won't be able to turn around their streaks -- Azarenka, after all, was only of the most inconsistent champions on Tour just last year -- or that the current stars won't see their successes come to a sharp end. But early performances this week certainly draw a line between players with staying power and those who might need some time to recover.

And that difference has the opportunity to make a big impact on the top ranks of the sport this year.

Back in Form

It seems to have been a good weekend for players that had something to prove. A shade or two off their best rankings, a couple champions made their return to the winners' circle on Sunday, and may have just reminded us all they're still forces to be reckoned with.

Juan Martin Del Potro has been working his way back to the sport's top echelon for some time and took titles last year in Delray Beach and Estoril. But it's been a while since he's been a threat to the top guys. Remember when he practically owned Rafael Nadal? On the way to his 2009 U.S. Open crown, the big Argentine went 3-0 against the one-time #1. He's 0-3 since then. DelPo did notch a couple victories over an ailing Robin Soderling early last year, but was largely ineffective against top-ten players that season.

Things seemed to have turned a corner in 2012, though. After beating world #7 Tomas Berdych on the way to the Rotterdam final, Del Potro seemed to have a renewed confidence. The fourth seed in Marseille, he was dealt a tough draw from the start, splitting sets with a re-invigorated Nikolay Davydenko in his opener before advancing on his opponent's retirement. He survived a close call against Richard Gasquet a match later, but scored an even bigger victory against top seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semis. In a match with forty-one aces -- the majority, somewhat surprisingly, coming from the Frenchman -- and a super-close second set tiebreak, things could have gone either way. But after nearly three hours, DelPo was able to close out the match and make his second straight final.

There he met a similarly resurgent Michael Llodra. Nearly in the top twenty less than a year ago, the Frenchman won no ATP-level matches after the U.S. Open in 2011. He pulled off an upset over Alexandr Dolgopolov in his Marseille second round and pulled off a major win against Janko Tipsarevic in the semis to make his first final in almost two years. His comeback ended quickly on Sunday, though as the Argentine won a more-than-solid ninety percent of his first serves and never allowed Llodra a chance to break. In his shortest match of the event, DelPo earned his tenth career title and reasserted himself as a powerful force against even the big guns.



Austrian Jurgen Melzer is less temporally removed from his career-high ranking, having peaked at #8 in the world just about a year ago. But after failing to defend points at Roland Garros or his trophy in Vienna, he started out 2012 outside the top thirty. A first round loss in Australia and an upset at the hands of Michael Berrer in Zagreb pushed him even further out of the spotlight.

Melzer was unseeded by the time he came to Memphis and found himself under the gun from the start. Down a set in his first two rounds, he needed third-set tiebreaks in both to advance. He scored the biggest on-paper upset of the tournament when he ousted big-serving American John Isner in the quarters, but upped his game even further Sunday when he met Milos Raonic, fresh off a win at the SAP Open in San Jose. The six-foot-five Canadian was playing his second straight final here, after losing last year on one of the most spectacular shots ever seen, and despite a middling fourth seed may have been the favorite even when Isner was still in contention.

But Melzer was on point in the championship match this year. After staying close to start, the veteran thirty year old broke in the eleventh game of the contest and served out the first set. Raonic wouldn't back down, though, and climbed to a 4-1 lead in the second before the Austrian fought back to even. The two battled to a tiebreak, but Melzer got the better of his opponent there too and, despite twenty-two aces and an eighty-plus first serve percentage from the world #32, closed out the match in less than two hours. The win halved the winner's ranking as of Monday's stats, bringing him back to #19 and reminding us he's a threat on more than just a doubles court.



Both these guys scored some milestone wins over the past week, and while there's still a ways to go before they regain their topmost form, their back-to-back upsets and victories should surely get them noticed again. And now that they're back on the radar, there are not many who will be able to rest easy.

Overcoming the Withdrawal

Like many tennis fans this week and, frankly, every week after a Grand Slam ends, I find myself at a loss now that the trophies have been presented. After two weeks of unending surprises, amazing breakthroughs, and heart-pounding displays of mental and physical strength, I'm not entirely sure what to do with myself these days. But not all players lasted long enough to make an impact Down Under, and some who've been in the doldrums for quite some time are right back in action this week trying to return to the top.

In Montpellier a handful of top twenty players are contesting the second Open Sud de France, but perhaps second seeded Gilles Simon has the most to prove. Since falling out of the top fifty a little more than a year ago, the Frenchman has been working his way back into the upper echelons of the sport. He had been on the comeback trail, but struggled through ten sets in Melbourne, and only won one match -- the second straight year he's fallen so early at the Australian Open. He's already had a comfortable win over Flavio Cipolla today and faces world #209 Guillaume Rufin in the quarters, so he's off to a better start this week. And if he can make an even deeper push here, and erase the memory of the last fortnight-plus, he could finally make that move back into the top ten, a level he hasn't seen since late 2009.

Jurgen Melzer suffered his fall from grace a little more recently, having peaked at #8 in the world just last April. But after failing to defend points at the French Open, falling after just one match win at every tournament since July, and losing to his own doubles partner Philipp Petzschner in Melbourne, he's now out of the top forty. He avenged that loss after qualifying for the Zagreb main draw, though, and followed it up with a straight set win over Andreas Seppi today. He gets a bit of a break in the quarters, as Germany's Michael Berrer took care of top seeded Ivan Ljubicic for him, and with the highest-ranked player left in the draw Alex Bogomolov at #34, his opportunity to go all the way couldn't be better. And he'll need to make a big stand soon if he's going to get that momentum back.

Chile's Fernando Gonzalez has fallen ever so slightly more out of favor. After hip surgery in late 2010, the one-time world #5 didn't play again until last April, when his ranking had fallen out of the top five hundred, and a knee injury kept him from making much of an impact the rest of the year. He didn't play in the Australian Open, but came to Viña del Mar as a wildcard and dispatched Pere Riba in his opening match. He gets a bit of a break next against Joao Souza and, I hate to admit, faces a field of aging veterans like Juan Monaco and Juan Ignacio Chela. If he's truly back in form, he might be able to pull off quite a set of upsets in his homeland.

All these guys have been well off their best game for various lengths of time, but they're still out there, fighting to climb back. And this week, now that the pressure of the biggest stage is off them, maybe they'll have a chance to work their way up the rankings. And with nearly four months before their next opportunity to shine at a Major, there's plenty of time for them to sate our appetite for more excitement.

Familiar Faces

The past twelve months have seen some new stars of tennis really break out, and you can't help but applaud the efforts made by those who've reached new milestones or finally made a name for themselves. As some rise, though, others must inevitably fall -- but those who have struggled recently seem to be turning the tables back in their favor this week in Hamburg, and it sure is good to see them back.

I once thought Marin Cilic had the best potential to break into the very top ranks of the sport. In 2009 he'd recorded wins over Andy Murray at the U.S. Open, Rafael Nadal in Beijing and built up enough points to reach a career high ranking of #9 in the world. Since then he's struggled, though, failing to defend two titles early in 2011 -- both of which he'd held for two straight years -- and losing first rounds at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

The Croat held on to the twelfth seed in Germany and benefited from early exits from potential opponents like Juan Ignacio Chela and Ivan Dodig. Earlier today he found himself down a set to wildcard Tobias Kamke, ranked just inside the top hundred in the sport, but was able to hold strong and ground out the win in over two hours. His bigger tests are still ahead, of course, but I'm somewhat encouraged by his resolve so far this week.

Fernando Verdasco has had a similar, if slightly less precipitous, slide out of the spotlight. Since really bursting onto the scene two years ago with one of the best Australian Open matches I've ever seen, he climbed to a career-high #7, won three titles and claimed Davis Cup victory. But he lost a shocking seven opening matches this year and, frankly, seemed to choke in the two finals he's played.

He seems to have his game together in Hamburg, though. After avenging his Miami loss to countryman Pablo Andujar on Wednesday despite weak serving statistics, Verdasco upped his game today against up-and-comer Cedrik-Marcel Stebe. Capitalizing on five of seven break chances, he put together a decisive win to reach the quarters for the third time in his career. He's never made it past this round, but if he can make it through a tough remaining field, it could bode well for the rest of his season.

Mikhail Youzhny struggled with a back injury during the spring, and though he's been back on Tour for a while, he has nevertheless notched some surprising losses to Olivier Rochus and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Having failed to defend points from Munich in May, he fell out of spitting distance of the top ten and came to Germany with a #17 rank and fourth seed.

Like Cilic, Youzhny hasn't had the toughest draw, but he did come back from a break down against a developing Carlos Berlocq to survive a tiebreak in a two-plus hour, straight set match. His third round against Julian Reister was much more straight forward, as he allowed no break points and dropped just ten points on serve. The Russian can clearly be volatile, so there's no telling what happens from here -- but if he keeps calm he could capture his first title in over a year.

Second seeded Jurgen Melzer hasn't fallen from grace yet, but last year's runner-up in Hamburg could start to see points come off his ranking quickly if he doesn't repeat. He's already lost some ground with a second-round defeat in Paris, and only made one clay court quarter this year.

The Austrian might have had the roughest road of these favorites, first facing feisty Daniel Gimeno-Traver -- a man who beat him in Madrid -- and then taking on tricky Fabio Fognini on Thursday. He'll get another dirt specialist next with Verdasco, so clearly there's no room to breathe just yet. But with the clean, aggressive game he's been playing, the odds might be in his favor this time.

It's a bit of a shame that all these guys will meet each other in the next round, so only two runs will be able to continue. But the wins they've put together this week, even if on a surface they won't see again for quite some time, should put momentum back on their side. And as they're all about to make the shift to hard courts, there's no better time to come out swinging again.

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Paris

When I went on vacation a week ago there were three spots left for the men's year-end championship. Today, they're all still available, and while no one has locked anything in, things do look a little different now.

Tomas Berdych still leads the field, but a first round loss in Basel allowed David Ferrer, who won in his hometown of Valencia, to jump a spot and narrow gap between them. Andy Roddick, a semifinalist in Switzerland, clung to eighth place, the last possible entry to London, while Fernando Verdasco, who's won only a single match since the U.S. Open, is only a few spots behind him. The barely five hundred points that separate these four guys -- and the one thousand that differentiate current #6 from #11 -- make this week's action in Paris all the more important.

The remaining contenders all received byes in the first round of the BNP Masters and so will begin their final campaigns in the next few days. And while no one's fate is certain, I feel like the momentum might have shifted a bit. Berdych, of course, started the year with a bang -- the winner here in 2005 had a stellar run to the Miami finals before making his Grand Slam championship match debut. But though he's at his highest career ranking, he has won barely a handful of matches since that All England Club feat. Facing an opening round against Florent Serra, a man who took him to three sets in Indian Wells, I fear for his immediate future.

Roddick's prospects, too, worry me a bit. Though he was solid in Switzerland, he might have some trouble against his first opponent in Paris -- Jarkko Nieminen has cut his ranking from triple digits in January to #39 in the world now. If he does survive that test, he could take on an even tougher opponent in Mikhail Youzhny, a finalist a few weeks back in St. Petersburg. Currently tenth in the race for London, the Russian could lock in his spot with a run to the finals, and though he withdrew from Valencia, the rest he got for his sore back might be just what the doctor ordered.

Ferrer might be able to harness the momentum from his win in Valencia to secure his own spot at the championships. The Spaniard takes on qualifier Fabio Fognini, who he's beaten in their last two meetings, in Paris, and as long as exhaustion doesn't set in, I like his chances. But he could face a big threat from Jurgen Melzer in his quarter of the BNP draw -- the repeat winner in Vienna needs to win the whole enchilada to earn his entreé to London, but it's not out of the question. Melzer did win their last meeting at Roland Garros just this year.

And while I would love to see Verdasco rally for a big win here -- he has a chance if he makes the semis -- the possibility of a third round meeting with Gael Monfils, who won the title in Montpellier just over a week ago, might not go the way I hope. All is not lost, though -- with a chance to redeem himself after a somewhat dismal performance in London last year, he has the motivation and the talent to make his second appearance at the championships.

There are only a few days left, though, so time is running out. And there is the possibility that we see a very unusual field fighting it out for the year-end trophy. But that's what makes the sport so exciting, and with a new year looming, there's no better way to end this one.

A Quick Shout Out

I know most of the attention over the weekend was being paid to the women's championships in Doha, but I just wanted to take a minute to congratulate the men who put up just as good a fight in their respective tournaments over the last several days. And as I've pointed out, some of the men were a bit surprising.

Though the ultimate result at the Bank Austria tournament wasn't such a surprise -- defending champion and world #12 Jurgen Melzer successfully reclaimed the title -- his opponent in the final got there under some interesting circumstances. Twenty-three year old Andreas Haider-Maurer had only one a single Tour-level match all year, but made a bit of a name for himself when he took two-time French Open finalist Robin Soderling to five sets in New York. Still, ranked only 157th in the world, he had to fight through the qualifying rounds and then wait for Ernests Gulbis to pull out of the main draw before earning entrée -- he'd actually retired from his last match in the qualies against Marsel Ilhan.

But something came over the Austrian when he hit the big boys' bracket. Pitted against veteran Thomas Muster in the first round, he was surprisingly unphased, beating the decorated champion in straight sets. He followed that up with a two-set, hundred-minute drubbing of second seeded Marin Cilic in the quarters and split the first two sets in tiebreaks to Melzer before ultimately losing the nearly three hour final. In addition to the $75,000 prize money he earned for the feat -- the purse more than doubled his year-to-date earnings -- he jumped forty two spots in the rankings and certainly put his name on the map as a real spoiler. Not bad for a week's work.

Over in St. Petersburg the top seed didn't fair quite as well in the finals. Mikhail Youzhny, the champion in 2004, was trying to caputre his third title of the year, but he was tested at almost every step along the way. He was down sets to both qualifier Evgeny Donskoy and eighth seed Victor Hanescu and saved several match points against a resurgent Dmitry Tursunov for the right to play Sunday.

Meanwhile his opponent, world #88 Mikhail Kukushkin, had a relatively easier time. After a tight first set against Jeremy Chardy in the first round he only dropped one game in the next two. He survived tests from Teymuraz Gabashvili and Janko Tipsarevic and eventually made his way to his first career final. And though he had been demolished in their only previous meeting, winning only three games in the 2009 Moscow semis, he virtually turned the tables this time around. Though he lagged top-ten Youzhny in first serve points and lost his own games twice, Kukushkin was able to break back four times and claimed his first trophy in his very first try.

With a far less impressive record is Gael Monfils who, despite his long run among the sport's top stars, had only won two titles in eleven final appearances. Admittedly after two tough rounds in a row -- he went three sets against both John Isner and countryman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Montpellier last week -- I didn't give him much of a chance against a relatively better-rested Ivan Ljubicic, a man with ten career crowns and one amazing run in Indian Wells this past March.

But Monfils surprised me in the championship match. Known more as a showman than an athlete who can actually perform under pressure, he finally showed the mental toughness he needs to win the big events -- up a set and a break, he allowed the thirty-one year old Ljubicic to even the score, but kept his service game strong and never allowed the Croat to get back in the match. In less than two hours he'd claimed the title, his second in his native country, and certainly showed that, if he keeps the antics to a minimum, he might be a real force.

A couple surprises and a couple surprise finalists this weekend, but some solid performances across the board. It's always nice to see that push so late in the season and it sure will be fun to watch them keep it up next year.

Back at Home

It's a long slog on the professional tennis Tour, so it should be no surprise that so many players opt to enter their home events, especially this time of year. Besides being close to family and friends, star athletes get the added benefit of almost unquestioned crowd support, while lesser-known, lower-ranked players are often able to secure wildcards for a chance to hit with the big boys.

It's not a perfect science, of course -- last week Elena Dementieva skipped the Kremlin Cup in her native Moscow to play in Luxembourg, and this week Nikolay Davydenko eschewed St. Petersburg in favor of the inaugural Montpellier tournament in France. But a quick look at the draws shows the vast majority of participants didn't have to travel far.

While Davydenko took the top seed at the Open Sud de France, moved from Lyon this year, he is closely followed by a couple hommes eager to show their stuff. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet lead the pack of twelve Frenchmen in the bracket, but qualifiers like Steve Darcis and Adrian Mannarino, both of whom won their first round matches, also are making a splash.

But some dark horse possibilities to take the title also lurk in the field -- though last year's runner-up Michael Llodra fell earlier on Thursday, there are still some threats left. Gilles Simon is coming off a win in Metz and pulled off a solid victory over marathon man Nicolas Mahut on Wednesday. Then there's 2006 champ Richard Gasquet who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Nice finals earlier this year. Now ranked back in the top thirty, you can't quite count him out.

Over in Vienna the biggest story, of course, was the return of forty-three year old Thomas Muster, a veteran champion who hadn't played a professional match since 1999. Though he lost his first round match to fellow Austrian Andreas Haider-Maurer, he certainly proved he can still keep up with kids nearly half his age.

But the hometown hero in the other half of the draw might hold better prospects. Top seeded Jurgen Melzer beat then-red hot Marin Cilic for the title in 2009 and began his defense with his highest career ranking of #12 in the world. Though he struggled against Lukasz Kubot, taking two tiebreaks and more than two hours, he survived the challenge and kept his campaign alive. With another potential battle against Cilic in the championship match, his run is certainly not clear and easy, but his chances look good.

Russians -- and former Russians -- are all over the draw in St. Petersburg, with 2004 champ Mikhail Youzhny leading the pack. But Dmitry Tursunov, once a top-twenty player, is continuing his own comeback after an ankle injury took him out of the top five hundred earlier this year. He made the quarters in Tokyo and survived a three setter against Michal Przysiezny in his opener in St. Petes. Earlier today he dismissed fourth seeded Yen-Hsun Lu and might have cleared his own path for a solid run here.

Maybe odds are stacked in the natives' favor, as they take up so many more of the slots in the field, but I'd look for these guys to make a nice dent in their home tournaments. Even if they can't bring back the ultimate trophy, they should be able to at least leverage their advantage for a few more wins.

And what better place for them to see such success.

And Now For Something Sorta Different

It's kind of amazing, when you think about it. Of the eight men and women who made the semifinals at Roland Garros this year, only one had ever won a Major title before. And though it's clear we'll crown a first-time winner on the ladies' side, the same cannot be ruled out for the men. While one very familiar face remains among the final four gentlemen, the three others are playing at a level that could certainly cause some surprises.

Rafael Nadal, of course, has been the favorite for this championship since he began trouncing his opponents in Monte Carlo, where he won his first trophy in almost a year, and captured two more Masters titles since. He's won this tournament four times already and has amassed a brilliant 36-1 record at Roland Garros.

Rafa certainly has the motivation to bring home another prize -- reclaiming the crown that shot him to fame five years ago would not only get him back to #1 in the world, but it would put him among the illustrious company of John McEnroe, Mats Wilander and Bill Renshaw, all of whom have seven Slams on their mantles. Nadal has been playing like he wants the win, not droppinh a set yet in five matches, and with his long-time rival now out of contention, his chances have never looked better.

But there are a few men who'll be doing their best to derail the King of Clay's seemingly unstoppable train.

First up will be Jurgen Melzer, who has been on the pro Tour for eleven years. The twenty-nine year old Austrian has claimed a couple titles, most recently in Vienna last year, but had never won more than two matches at a Major before coming to Paris. When he beat David Ferrer, my pick to take his quarter, I wrote it off to exhaustion on his opponent's part. When he beat Teimuraz Gabashvili next, he proved he would not fold under the pressure of reaching the second week at a Slam. When he beat Novak Djokovic in the quarters, well then I sat up and started to take notice.

Melzer got off to a slow start against the world #3, and in about an hour found himself down two sets to love. But he hung onto a break in the third and fought through a tiebreak in the fourth to force a deciding set. The pair held serve early in the fifth and even seemed to raise their level of play when the stakes got higher, prompting the crowd to get that much more voluble in their cheers. Finally at four-all, Melzer was able to get the first break in almost three hours of play and after a controversial call went his way in the next game, he was the ultimate victor in the last men's quarterfinal. The win earned Jurgen his best result at any Major and a date with Rafa in the semis, and he could put up a bigger fight than we'd expect. He has, after all, proven he's capable of keeping up with the big guys.

So too has Tomas Berdych, the surprise finalist in Miami who beat Fernando Verdasco, Robin Soderling, and Roger Federer to get there. His demolition of Mikhail Youzhny on Tuesday earned him his own best Slam ever. The Czech has been even more impressive than that, though, with five straight set wins, including one over fourth-seeded Andy Murray two rounds back.

If you think Nadal and Melzer have been impressive this fortnight, consider that Berdych has only played one tiebreak and just lost serve six times. He's fired off forty-nine aces, better than any of the remaining men, and has had the fastest serve of the four this tournament. He has a decent record against Rafa too, should they meet in the finals -- three to seven, though none of those were on clay and the most recent was back in 2006. Even still, with wins over so many top ten players this year, it's got to be intimidating to see him in the finals.

He would have to get past Robin Soderling again, though. Last year's runner-up is clearly beatable, but you'd hardly know that if you'd watched him dismantle Roger Federer in the quarters, avenging the twelve previous losses he'd suffered at the hands of the current world #1. Though now staunchly in the top ten of the sport, he's hardly familiar with this environment -- he's playing in only his second Major semi, but ultimately aims to go one better than his 2009 performance. But he sure looks comfortable here.

So far in Roland Garros, Soderling has only dropped two sets and won well over seventy percent of his first serves. Rafa certainly won't be happy to meet him in the finals -- Robin is, after all, the only man who has beaten him on these courts. And though he still trails the Spaniard in their head-to-heads, a couple of breaks and he might be able to get under his skin.

Of course, we're still three long matches away from crowning a men's champion in Paris, and as the semis get underway in just a few hours there is certainly a hint of something old and something new. In my mind, Nadal is still the favorite to win the whole thing, but with some of the best play coming from some unlikely sources, there's also never been a better chance to see something you'd never have expected two weeks ago.

Time-Out: French Open Reassessment

I seem to be doing a little worse in my predictions this time around, but in my defense it is always hardest to telescope results at the French Open. And we've seen some strong players fall by the wayside over the first few rounds and a few surprisingly resilient champs prove they're not quite ready to be counted out.

So with less than a week of play left, I'll take a moment to look back at what we've seen and figure out who still or now has the best chance to make the illustrious final four among the men and women.

The top men's bracket turned out to be a lot less competitive than I'd thought. Ernests Gulbis retired during his first round while Albert Montanes was only able to take a set off last year's runner-up Robin Soderling. A couple other seeds -- Gael Monfils, Feliciano Lopez, for example -- also lost before the third round, allowing Roger Federer to make the quarters without dropping a set. That set up a rematch of last year's championship game which Federer won easily. And while Soderling is certainly a stronger player now, I'm standing by my call that Roger will advance.

Same with the bottom bracket, where four-time champion Rafael Nadal is once again playing at the top of his game. He's been challenged a bit, losing serve a few times in his last few matches, but he still hasn't dropped a set. And when he got past Thomaz Bellucci in the fourth round -- the same round in which he lost last year -- he successfully overcame the mental obstacle and got back to the quarters.

His next opponent took care of the biggest threat in the quarter for Rafa -- Nicolas Almagro, who is having some of his best success this year, simply rolled through Fernando Verdasco in two of their four sets and only allowed one break of his serve. The Spaniard has made the quarters once before, but with recent wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych, Lleyton Hewitt and Robin Soderling, this is certainly his best showing based on skill and talent. He did take a set off Nadal in Madrid, but beating him three-out-of-five is a whole different story. While Rafa may face his biggest test of the tournament, I think he'll back up my earlier prediction.

My next call was negated a few days ago. In a bracket I claimed from the start was pretty stacked I'm actually surprised third-seeded Novak Djokovic made it so far. Of course, his biggest threats had been eliminated for him by Robby Ginepri and his next challenger, Jurgen Melzer. Ginepri, the unlikely last American man standing, pulled off a stunning upset of world #18 Juan Carlos Ferrero while Melzer took care of my pick, David Ferrer, in a fairly routine three sets. Though Nole has beaten the twenty-nine year old veteran in their last two meetings, the way he played in the last round makes me think he might be a little tired. And if the man who beat my choice for this quarter makes it to the semis, I'll chalk it up as a win for me!

The last quarter is much more up in the air. I'd said we'd see a lot of upsets here, and it turns out that we did. I had big hopes for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but he was downed in the second round; John Isner, too, lost unnervingly easily to Tomas Berdych in the third, and Andy Murray, the top seed in the bracket, was two sets and a break down in the first round. Ultimately it was Berdych and Mikhail Youzhny who made the quarters, two men who've met ten times before. And though the Russian has the slight edge in their head-to-head, I feel like Berdych has been just slightly more impressive this spring, and I'm giving him the last men's ticket to the semis.

The top women's quarter was hard to call for the exact opposite reason as that last men's section. There was just so much talent, so many titles, such high quality play that several people said the winner of this bracket would win the whole thing. And after a week of play, that certainly looks to be the case. The top seeded Serena Williams is still alive and playing some of the best tennis in the women's draw. So is my pick Sam Stosur, who handed four-time champion Justine Henin her first French Open loss since 2004. I still think the Australian has a fighting chance to make the final four for the second consecutive year, but I'm a little worried about that call -- Serena's been much more impressive than I would have expected, given her three-month layoff post Melbourne. Sam did beat her once though, last year in Stanford, and she played some phenomenal ball to come back for the win against Henin. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

The bottom quarter of the women's draw was also one with a lot of strength, and I don't think I would've called for either of the two ladies left standing. Fifth seeded Elena Dementieva has had a couple of challenges on her way to the quarters, having lost a break lead to Anabel Medina Garrigues and coming from behind to beat Aleksandra Wozniak, but she hasn't faced any seeded players to advance. Meanwhile, Nadia Petrova took out my pick for the bracket, Venus Williams, in a surprising two sets after saving match points against another tournament favorite, Aravane Rezai. As much as I'd love to see Elena back in a Major semi -- and then some -- I think Nadia, who hasn't beaten her countrywoman in over three years, might be able to pull off another upset this time.

This section of the women's game is where I've been most surprised. Sure, I said the Italians would do well and predicted Francesca Schiavone would fight for the semi spot. But I have to hand it to Caroline Wozniacki, who so many people said should have sat out this French Open. But, boy has she proved us all liars. She's the third seed in Paris, so she hasn't yet played anyone who should beat her, but I thought for sure red-hot Alexandra Dulgheru would take her out, and of course Marbella champ would stick it to her. But props to Caro -- I'm so glad to see her looking healthy. That said, Schiavone hasn't dropped a set since the first round, and wins over a tough Na Li and Maria Kirilenko show just how strong she is. I would love Wozniacki to continue fighting, but I have a feeling her luck has to end sometime.

Not necessarily so for fourth seeded Jelena Jankovic who is not only playing beautfully, but has the least experienced quarterfinal opponent of the top players. Though Yaroslava Shvedova actually took out my choice for this section, Aggie Radwanska, and beat Jankovic in the second round of the U.S. Open last year, so she shouldn't be overlooked. But this is the first time the Kazakh has gotten past the third round of a Slam, while Jelena is looking for her third semi. If she keeps her cool I see no reason she shouldn't get back.

So I'm not going to bother giving myself a score for my forecasts this time -- there's still a chance I get a couple right, after all, and I'll find a way to justify my other calls! But one of my predictions has certainly come to fruition -- this year's French Open has been chock full of great tennis and some very exciting moments.

As for who I think can win the whole thing, well my money's still on Rafa. And, man would I love Stosur to bring it home for the women! But with only a few days of action left, you know it's only going to get better from here!