Unusual Suspects: Davis Cup Quarterfinal Preview

There are going to be a couple unfamiliar flags flying this weekend as the eight countries left in the hunt for the 2013 Davis Cup crown contest the quarterfinals. And while there will certainly be plenty of star power in the field, there are enough wildcards out there that there's really no telling who'll be left standing on Sunday night.

Canada vs. Italy

The Canadians are playing in their first ever World Group quarterfinal, but despite their relative inexperience they could be the spoilers in this tie. World #16 Milos Raonic will be the highest-ranked player on the courts this weekend and comes to Vancouver with a 11-4 record on the year, including a title in San Jose. He's never met either of Italy's likely singles players, though, and with just five top twenty opponents so far this season he hasn't really been tested yet. And while he is by far the best on-paper singles player on the Canadian squad, the team could eventually find its leadership in veteran doubles star Daniel Nestor, holder of eighty crowns in his twenty-plus year career. The forty year old could very well help clinch the win for his countrymen if Raonic is able to take care of his job on his own.

The Italians can't be fully discounted though. All four of their representatives are ranked in the top eighty in singles and they've each pulled off a few upsets in their time. Andreas Seppi, sitting at his highest ever ranking more than a decade since going pro, has won two titles in the past twelve months and famously took the first two sets off Novak Djokovic at last year's French Open. Fabio Fognini, who did his best to end Andy Roddick's career in New York, made his way to the finals in St. Petersburg last fall and the semis in Acapulco in February. The disadvantage the team has, though, is that most of their success has come on clay -- all ten of Paolo Lorenzi's Challengers titles and seventy-five percent of Simone Bolelli's have been on the dirt. If the 1976 champions can't make a quick adjustment to the hardcourt, they might be sent home much sooner than they expected.

U.S. vs. Serbia

Somewhat surprisingly the U.S. is sporting the better recent Davis Cup record than the 2010 champs. After shocking wins over Switzerland and France, their magical 2012 performance ended at the hands of Spain in the semifinals. The Serbs, meanwhile, were summarily dismissed in the quarters to the eventual Czech titleists. Still it could be a tough task for the Americans to repeat last year's success. Former top-ten player John Isner has been nursing a knee injury most of the year, withdrawing from the Australian Open and falling in his Indian Wells opener, dropping points he'd accumulated by making the final last year. Sam Querrey is now the top player for the U.S., and with fourth round showings at both of the American Masters events and wins over the likes of Kei Nishikori, Fernando Verdasco and, stunningly, Novak Djokovic late last season, he certainly has earned that spot. If both players play to their potential, it would be a good sign for the U.S. -- if not, it could come down to the doubles tie here too with the record-breaking team of Mike and Bob Bryan needing to come through for their country again.

The Serbs will do their best to keep that from happening. World #1 Novak Djokovic returns after taking last year off from Davis Cup play, having already avenged recent losses to both Querrey and Isner. His twenty-two match win streak ended in the Indian Wells semis, though, and he failed to capture a third straight Miami trophy when he lost to Tommy Haas in the Sony Open fourth round. But with solid winning records against the Americans, he should be able to tie up his matches cleanly. The bigger question mark will be Viktor Troicki, #12 in the world less than two years ago but with just three Tour-level wins so far this year. He has winning records against both potential opponents, but hasn't met either since 2011. If he ends up losing both his rubbers, former doubles #1 Nenad Zimonjic might have to carry the burden against the Bryans. Ultimately this tie will probably come down to whether Isner has recovered enough to put up a fight against a mid-forties player or whether Troicki will be able to recapture the talent that sent his star soaring not so long ago.

France vs. Argentina

It's a bit of a shame that these two recent powerhouses are meeting so early this year -- runners-up in 2008, 2010 and 2011, both squads have what it takes to stir the pot at Davis Cup. France is led by world #8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who holds a solid 14-3 record in Davis Cup play. He won the title in Marseille in February, outlasting rival Tomas Berdych in the final, and only has a couple sub-fifty losses on his resumé this season -- but Tsonga's had some long matches too, having already played thirteen tiebreaks in 2013. We might actually see bigger things from Gilles Simon, just out of the top ten but steadily climbing the rankings over the last five months. The French #2 #3 has notched wins over Janko Tipsarevic and Juan Martin Del Potro and has made at least the quarters of five events this year. He may be relegated to second rubber status this weekend, but don't be surprised if he ends up becoming the star.

The Argentines meanwhile are missing their biggest weapon in Del Potro, who lost his opener in Miami after shocking both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic on his way to the Indian Wells final. Instead Juan Monaco, who last year climbed to #10 in the world, a full decade after going pro, will lead the team. He's struggled, though, winning just two matches so far, albeit both during Davis Cup play in February, and dropping nearly all the points he'd earned by making the Miami semis last year. With losing records against both Tsonga and Simon, it'll be difficult for him to deliver now. Carlos Berlocq, a semifinalist in Viña del Mar and a fourth rounder in Indian Wells, may be a better bet, but at #71 in the world he's no sure thing. I wouldn't be surprised if the South Americans subbed surprise Chilean champion Horacio Zeballos in for the singles action -- with a win over Rafael Nadal on clay this season, he may have shown the most spunk on this team and could surprise us all.

Kazakhstan vs. Czech Republic

In what's likely the strangest match-up this weekend, the little known Kazakhs take on the defending champion Czechs and carry with them home-court advantage and a surprising 1-0 record against their rivals. There's not a lot of star power on the squad, though -- no singles player is ranked in double digits -- and Mikhail Kukushkin, who made the fourth round in Melbourne last year hasn't won a main draw match yet this season. And Andrey Golubev, #205 in the world, has played mostly qualifying matches in 2013 -- he did cement the Kazakhs' win over Austria in the first round, though, and could be the spoiler this time around.

And that's because the Czechs may have opened the door for an upset -- world #6 Tomas Berdych is sitting out this tie and last year's clincher Radek Stepanek has been relegated to the middle Saturday doubles rubber. That's not to say things won't be shifted around, but as it stands, world #94 Jan Hajek -- just 2-5 this year -- and giant-killer Lukas Rosol will be opening up singles action. Again, Stepanek may very well be called in to pinch hit should the Czechs find themselves in a hole after Friday's action, but if the Kazakhs pounce early we could see a big surprise by one of the biggest underdogs in the field.

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With so much room for upsets and surprises, things could get really interesting this weekend. Plenty of players have an opportunity to prove themselves -- either that they're back in contention, or that they should be taken as seriously as the biggest stars in the sport. Whatever shakes out at the end of the day, though, could set a new stage in the world of tennis. And it sure looks like all these guys will be eager to capture the audience from the start.

Davis Cup Preview: A Man or Two Down

A week after the ladies launched their opening salvos in this year's battle for Fed Cup, the men are ready to do the same. And though a couple top-tier stars will be out battling for their nation's pride, a few teams are left without their stalwarts and could have to really fight for what should be theirs.

Spain vs. Kazakhstan

Defending champion Spain, winner of the Davis Cup three of the last four years, won't have the benefit of Rafael Nadal -- a key player here the last few years -- but comes with some depth and experience that should give them the edge over the upstart Kazakhs.

Nicolas Almagro, playing just his third World Group tie heads up the team and is coming off his best run at the Australian Open -- losing three tiebreaks to Tomas Berdych in their four-set, four-hour slugfest, had a couple balls bounced a different way, he might have scored the win. He's been quiet recently, but on his home turf -- on his best surface -- he could be deadly. He's backed up by world #27 Marcel Granollers, admittedly new to the elite ranks. He's never played singles for Spain and hasn't had a great start to the year, but a title run late last year in Valencia -- which included wins over Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Juan Martin Del Potro -- tells me he's got potential to make a big impact.

But the Spaniards can't rest too easy. Though none of the Kazakhs are ranked in the top fifty, Mikhail Kukushkin made a big push to get there in Melbourne. Barely in double digits at the time, the twenty-four year old stunned Viktor Troicki in the second round, and followed it up with his second five-set win in a row, beating Monfils to make the sweet sixteen. Now a perfect 4-0 in matches that go the distance, no one can assume this man will eventually tire out. And with Andrey Golubev -- ranked #33 in the world about a year ago -- backing him up, this may not be as easy as it initially seems.

Germany vs. Argentina

Last year's runner-up Argentine team might have an even harder time. Without big-serving Juan Martin Del Potro playing this tie, they'll have to rely on some consistent, yet veteran players to hold the torch. Juan Monaco is coming off a title at Viña Del Mar and is at his highest ranking in three and a half years. And Juan Ignacio Chela, just a few spots behind him, hasn't been in the top twenty since early 2008. Perhaps their best performance will come from David Nalbandian, who's well off his career-best ranking at #84, but boasts an impressive 22-5 record in Davis Cup singles. The linchpin of the team could help carry them past a tricky German squad.

Still there will be a few close calls. Florian Mayer had some of his best results on clay last year, and though he hasn't played -- or won -- a lot in 2011, he's capable of pulling off some big upsets. He has winning records against both Monaco and Chela, and could pounce if given the chance. And Philipp Kohlschreiber, arguably the stronger player these days, beat Nicolas Almagro in Auckland and Richard Gasquet in Montpellier, while Philipp Petzschner, half of one of the world's best doubles teams, has been notching big wins in singles as well. Either might surprise us this weekend.

Sweden vs. Serbia

Like the top contenders before them, 2010 champions Serbia are also without their team leader Novak Djokovic. But the likes of top-ten player Janko Tipsarevic and doubles specialist Nenad Zimonjic should be more than enough to easily handle a Robin Soderling-less Swedish team. The underdogs' best hope might be Robert Lindstedt, ranked tenth in the world in doubles -- he's the highest ranked singles player on the team, at #309. Michael Ryderstedt, almost forty spots behind him, hasn't won a main draw match at an ATP event since July. On paper, it looks like this could be a near-Serbian sweep.

France vs. Canada

France, luckily, comes to their Davis Cup tie fully prepared with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils both in action. They've been solid performers in recent months, with Monfils making the finals in both Doha and Montpellier just last week and Tsonga claiming that Doha title along with runner-up spots in both London and Paris. Teaming with veteran Julien Benneteau and current doubles #5 Michael Llodra, they paint a formidable picture.

But despite the top-tier star power, they shouldn't overlook a wily Canadian team, looking for their first ever World Group win. Milos Raonic looks to be back in form, winning a title to start the year in Chennai. He might not have made as deep a run in Melbourne as he did last year, but he's certainly capable of serving his way through a few sets. And as he gets back on the trajectory he was on before injury stalled his 2011, even on-paper favorites aren't safe. And seven-time Major doubles champion Daniel Nestor could help notch an easy rubber win that may be the decider in a surprisingly close tie.

Italy vs. Czech Republic

The Italians have played the Czechs a surprising ten times at Davis Cup, with the eastern Europeans holding a 7-3 advantage. They haven't met since 1995, when the Italians secured a solid victory, but things may be going back to normal now. Tomas Berdych is coming straight off a title in Montpellier and has amassed an impressive 8-1 record on the year, and Radek Stepanek, once ranked #8 in the world, seems to be playing well again. But also look for Lukas Rosol to try making a statement in a possible reverse singles match -- ranked just seventy-eighth in the world, he is getting more play on the ATP Tour this year, and though he's only scored one win so far, the twenty-six year old may be ready to make a move.

The Italians have some firepower too, but nothing that should pose too big a threat for the Czechs. Andreas Seppi is just out of the top forty, and though he's scored a couple upsets over the last few months, he hasn't beaten a top-ten player since 2008. And Potito Starace, three times a runner-up in his career but never a bride champion, hasn't quite had the breakthrough I've been waiting for. It shouldn't be difficult for a strong -- and stacked -- Czech team to improve their record.

U.S. vs. Switzerland

The U.S. is technically the favorite in this match up -- with a record thirty-two Davis Cup trophies in the case, they certainly have history on their side. But even with their top player -- their top two players, in fact -- they'll likely struggle against a Swiss team that boasts Grand Slam king Roger Federer. Mardy Fish, the best hope for the U.S. in singles, has certainly put up a fight, taking sets from Fed both at last year's year-end championships and in the 2010 Cincinnati finals. But he hasn't beaten the world #3 in almost four years. John Isner doesn't have a better record, going 0-2 against Roger.

There's a little more leeway against Swiss #2 Stanislas Wawrinka. The twenty-six year old has only notched one win in five outings against the two Americans, and he's had some spotty results recently, having advanced past the quarters of only one tournament since last February. And veteran doubles champion Mike Bryan -- playing without twin and brand new father Bob -- could prove to be a great mentor for rising star Ryan Harrison as he seeks to establish himself as the next generation of U.S. athletes. I'm not giving this win to the Swiss outright, but something tells me it could come down to that all-important doubles rubber.

Japan vs. Croatia

This might be the biggest toss-up among this weekend's ties. Croatia has some real tennis talent in its ranks -- unfortunately, neither Marin Cilic, battling a leg injury, nor fellow former top-ten player Ivan Ljubicic will be representing their country. Ivo Karlovic should be able to pick up the reins somewhat, as the big-server seems to be making strides recovering from injury, and Ivan Dodig, one of the biggest flame-outs of 2011, will look to redeem himself here.

But they'll be playing on foreign ground and Japan's #1 Kei Nishikori, on the verge of the global elite these days, will certainly have the crowd on his side. One of the few players to beat Novak Djokovic last year, he's certainly got the talent to defeat most opponents. And Go Soeda, barely ranking in double digits right now, is coming off a Challenger win in Honolulu and a solid run to the semis in Chennai as a qualifier -- incidentally, he beat Dodig during that event. This one will be a battle between rising stars and those on the rebound, and whoever gets in the first punch could do the most damage.

Russia vs. Austria

If the Japan/Croatia tie is the biggest toss-up, this one might have the most at stake. There's a lot of star power on both teams, but not everyone has been playing at their best recently, and anyone might be able to take advantage.

For the Russians Mikhail Youzhny -- #1 in his country, but still out of the top thirty -- will try to build on his Zagreb title from last week. He didn't face much of a challenge from his opponents, though, so we'll get a true test this weekend of whether he's back in form. Alex Bogomolov, playing for the former Soviet Republic despite his former allegiance to the U.S., will make his Davis Cup debut, while former #3 Nikolay Davydenko may be relegated to the doubles rubber. It'll be interesting to see how captain Shamil Tarpischev chooses to stack his team.

Meanwhile the Austrians will hope that Jurgen Melzer, top ten less than a year ago, can live up to his potential. After a tough couple months, he needs to make an impact again on the singles scene -- his teammate Andreas Haider-Maurer has shown signs of potential, but has yet to make an impact on Tour. On the other hand, the sixteenth seed in World Group has a slew of doubles talent to choose from -- Melzer, Alexander Peya, and Oliver Marach are all ranked in the top twenty-five for the paired discipline. Unfortunately, of course, that strength can only translate into one rubber, max. We're going to have to see a lot more depth, if this team is going to advance.

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With pockets of powerhouses, and open opportunities, showing up throughout this weekend's rubbers, it looks like we could have some big matches -- and some big upsets. Whether the heavy favorites will make early exits or tricky upstarts will finally get footing is still to be seen. But we've seen almost anything can happen at Davis Cup. And as the field gets narrowed, be ready for a few surprises.

A Quick Shout Out

I know most of the attention over the weekend was being paid to the women's championships in Doha, but I just wanted to take a minute to congratulate the men who put up just as good a fight in their respective tournaments over the last several days. And as I've pointed out, some of the men were a bit surprising.

Though the ultimate result at the Bank Austria tournament wasn't such a surprise -- defending champion and world #12 Jurgen Melzer successfully reclaimed the title -- his opponent in the final got there under some interesting circumstances. Twenty-three year old Andreas Haider-Maurer had only one a single Tour-level match all year, but made a bit of a name for himself when he took two-time French Open finalist Robin Soderling to five sets in New York. Still, ranked only 157th in the world, he had to fight through the qualifying rounds and then wait for Ernests Gulbis to pull out of the main draw before earning entrée -- he'd actually retired from his last match in the qualies against Marsel Ilhan.

But something came over the Austrian when he hit the big boys' bracket. Pitted against veteran Thomas Muster in the first round, he was surprisingly unphased, beating the decorated champion in straight sets. He followed that up with a two-set, hundred-minute drubbing of second seeded Marin Cilic in the quarters and split the first two sets in tiebreaks to Melzer before ultimately losing the nearly three hour final. In addition to the $75,000 prize money he earned for the feat -- the purse more than doubled his year-to-date earnings -- he jumped forty two spots in the rankings and certainly put his name on the map as a real spoiler. Not bad for a week's work.

Over in St. Petersburg the top seed didn't fair quite as well in the finals. Mikhail Youzhny, the champion in 2004, was trying to caputre his third title of the year, but he was tested at almost every step along the way. He was down sets to both qualifier Evgeny Donskoy and eighth seed Victor Hanescu and saved several match points against a resurgent Dmitry Tursunov for the right to play Sunday.

Meanwhile his opponent, world #88 Mikhail Kukushkin, had a relatively easier time. After a tight first set against Jeremy Chardy in the first round he only dropped one game in the next two. He survived tests from Teymuraz Gabashvili and Janko Tipsarevic and eventually made his way to his first career final. And though he had been demolished in their only previous meeting, winning only three games in the 2009 Moscow semis, he virtually turned the tables this time around. Though he lagged top-ten Youzhny in first serve points and lost his own games twice, Kukushkin was able to break back four times and claimed his first trophy in his very first try.

With a far less impressive record is Gael Monfils who, despite his long run among the sport's top stars, had only won two titles in eleven final appearances. Admittedly after two tough rounds in a row -- he went three sets against both John Isner and countryman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Montpellier last week -- I didn't give him much of a chance against a relatively better-rested Ivan Ljubicic, a man with ten career crowns and one amazing run in Indian Wells this past March.

But Monfils surprised me in the championship match. Known more as a showman than an athlete who can actually perform under pressure, he finally showed the mental toughness he needs to win the big events -- up a set and a break, he allowed the thirty-one year old Ljubicic to even the score, but kept his service game strong and never allowed the Croat to get back in the match. In less than two hours he'd claimed the title, his second in his native country, and certainly showed that, if he keeps the antics to a minimum, he might be a real force.

A couple surprises and a couple surprise finalists this weekend, but some solid performances across the board. It's always nice to see that push so late in the season and it sure will be fun to watch them keep it up next year.