A Tale of Two Seedings

It's been an interesting couple days down in Melbourne -- with just a round and a half of play in the books at the Australian Open, a full quarter of seeded players have already been eliminated. And while some of those remaining have sailed through early matches, others have been struggling just to survive. And that could create some big opportunities for everyone who's left.

The Good

Things have been fairly easy for the top seeds, though that's not to say there hasn't been any drama. Maria Sharapova, winner here in 2008, hasn't dropped a game yet in her first two rounds; neither has Serena Williams, but the top American in either draw did take quite a tumble in her Tuesday match. She'll test that ankle in Day four against young Spaniard Garbine Muguruza who needed more than three hours to reach her first Major second round -- but considering Williams won eight straight games after her injury, it might be more of a pop quiz than a final exam. Other ladies have been just as strong -- Victoria Azarenka kept her record against potentially tough Monica Niculescu a perfect 5-0 and fourth seeded Aggie Radwanska, after trading breaks throughout her first set with wildcard Bojana Bobusic, eventually went on to win that set and the next three.

The favorites on the men's side have been similarly dominant. Two-time defending champion Novak Djokovic was pushed a bit in his first round by veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu, but came back strong to take out Ryan Harrison easily on Wednesday. The three other former Major winners in the draw have only played one match each so far, and none has lost a set. U.S. Open champion Andy Murray takes on little-known Joao Sousa in his second round while Juan Martin Del Potro, the 2009 titleist in New York, meets an always-feisty Benjamin Becker. They both should be able to get through these obstacles, though, but Roger Federer -- by far the most decorated of the group -- will likely face the biggest challenge when he faces former world #3 Nikolay Davydenko. The veteran Russian has been trying to stage a comeback the last several months, and while he could very well lose the match anyway, he's the most likely to put up a fight.

We've also seen some inspiring performances from those outside the top ten early on. Seven-time Major champion Venus Williams lost just one game in her opener and was similarly strong against one-time top-fifteen player Alize Cornet a round later. And Fernando Verdasco, a semifinalist here in 2009 and my Cinderella pick for his quarter, was tested early by French Open standout David Goffin, but rebounded quickly to take out veteran Xavier Malisse earlier today. They're both seeded on the low side, but it wouldn't be the biggest stretch to see either extend their runs a few rounds longer.

The Bad

It hasn't been all good news for the more favored, however. Eleventh seed Juan Monaco crashed out in the first round, last year's Cinderella Sara Errani fell in straight sets on Tuesday, and Nadia Petrova, one of the biggest surprises of last year, was summarily dismissed by uber-veteran Kimiko Date Krumm, barely notching a game on the scoreboard before making her exit. Others seemed to survive early challenges, though, only to crumble just when you thought they were safe.

Tamira Paszek was both one of the most promising and one of the most disappointing players of 2012. After making the quarters at Wimbledon, she faded quickly and was riding a four match losing streak as she headed to Melbourne. She'd horded away enough points to keep a seed here, but I was frankly and pleasantly surprised when she made it through her opener against Stefanie Voegele, a woman who had won three matches in Shenzhen. But Paszek's run wouldn't last -- it took less than an hour for seventeen-year-old Madison Keys to notch a win on Wednesday. The American upstart fired off twenty-three winners to her opponent's six, won three quarters of her net points, and dropped just three points on first serve. Paszek didn't have any points to defend in Australia -- the only Slam she'd had any impact on was at the All England Club -- but her quick exit doesn't bode well for her the rest of the season, so she'll want to turn her luck around as soon as she can.

Sam Stosur probably still has a lot more game left in her, but you might be questioning that, given her performances so far in 2013. The world #9 was oh-and-two coming into her home Slam, and struggled early against easily-overlooked Kai-Chen Chang in her opener. The woman from Taipei kept pace with Stosur early on Monday -- incidentally her twenty-second birthday -- serving for and to stay in the first set a few times. Eventually the favorite prevailed, but she'd be challenged again Wednesday by one-time Aussie semifinalist Jie Zheng, ironically, the same woman who beat her last week in Sydney. After dominating the second set to force a decider, Stosur was caught on the losing side of an hour-long third and was sent home early, yet again. This has certainly never been her best Slam, but I'm sure the Australian #1 was hoping to put in a slightly better showing Down Under this year. Hopefully she'll be able to right the ship before long -- it'd be a shame to lose such a strong talent so soon after she peaked.

The Ugly

Of course not all those who were challenged came out on the losing end of things, but that doesn't mean they weren't left bruised and battered nonetheless. Julia Goerges battled the sun as well as her opponent in Monday's first round against Vera Dushevina, while Jurgen Melzer, struggling over the last several months, held off 2012 Cinderella Mikhail Kukushkin in his opener and lost two tiebreaks to surprise Brisbane finalist Roberto Bautista-Agut before pulling out the win. But a few others kept their fans on the edge of their collective seat throughout their most recent match.

Jerzy Janowicz wasn't even on the radar at this time last year, but the big-serving Pole has cut his ranking from the sub-two hundreds to top-thirty thanks to a Cinderella run at the Paris Masters. Seeded for the first time at a Major -- he's only played in three total -- he comes to Melbourne with a lot to prove. After a fairly routine opener, though, he was really challenged. Near the end of a long first set against long-absent Somdev Devvarman, the young Jerzy began to lose his cool -- a lines call went against him, he yelled at the chair umpire, and was cited for unsportsmanlike conduct. He lost the second set, too, losing serve twice and unable to break in return, but finally started to settle down in the third. After four hours the twenty-fourth seed was finally able to close out the win, but if he's going to stand a chance against Nicolas Almagro in the next round, he'll have to make sure he stays on the ball from the start.

Janko Tipsarevic is famous for dropping the ball on the court -- one of Jerzy's victims in Paris, the Serbian #2 can be a little cranky when things don't go his way. He could have gotten in a lot of trouble early -- he opened against hometown favorite Lleyton Hewitt -- but ended up really being tested in the late-night match on Wednesday. He got off to a two-set-to-love lead on world #44 Lukas Lacko, but then seemed to get a bit too comfortable. The Slovakian took charge in the third set, got the lead in the fourth and even saved match points in the decider. But Tipsy pulled himself together just in time, finally breaking again and taking the match -- ultimately finishing with one point less than his opponent, actually. He's never made it out of the third round in Melbourne, though, so he'll have to bring it against Julien Benneteau in the next round, because if he doesn't things might get even uglier.

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As should be expected at the Majors, some seeds have lived up to expectations while others have fallen under the pressure. But the way everyone's playing, even those who've been dominating will need to step up their game while those who've just barely survived will feel the heat of more than just the Australian summer sun.

But the Slams are where we separate the men from the boys, so those who've struggled so far will need to shake those jitters fast. Because the favorites aren't ceding any ground in Melbourne, and it'll be up to them to prove they belong.

Where'd They Go?

If the top ranks of the tennis world have seen something of a resureection in recent weeks, the middle tiers seem to be stumbling a bit this time of year. Despite some impressive starts to the year, a couple players have faded the last couple months of the season. And they'll need to take the next few weeks to regroup if they're going to make a statement in 2013.

World #32 Christina McHale started off the year with real promise -- after her breakout in 2011 she made the quarterfinals in Doha and beat then-Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova in Indian Wells a few weeks later. The young American climbed to a career high ranking in August, breaking the top twenty-five, but has struggled since then. She withdrew from New Haven with illness and wasn't well enough to win her first round match at the U.S. Open. After pulling out of two tournaments after New York, she lost her first match back in Beijing to Ana Ivanovic and this week in Osaka couldn't quiet get her game together. Against Kai-Chen Chang in her opener, she lost more than half her points on serve and in a break-filled match -- nine in total -- she was the weaker player on return. Hopefully once she's fully recovered she'll be able to get back on track -- it'd be nice to see her notch a couple more elite wins and cement herself as a force in this sport.

Frankly I'm a little more surprised at the performance we've seen out of Yaroslava Shvedova recently. The doubles star had lost singles ground last year when injury hampered play in the second half, but came back swinging in 2012. She beat defending champion Na Li at Roland Garros to make the quarters and famously dealt Sara Errani a Golden Set at Wimbledon a month later. Her climb up the rankings has been phenomenal -- the Kazakh is at #28 coming to Japan, having started the year out of the top two-hundred -- but her showing since the summer, less so. She hasn't made it past the second round of any event since, and this week in Japan was trounced by thirty-five year old Tamarine Tanasugarn in her first round. It's probably too soon to be overly concerned, but it would be great to see her turn her luck around before she loosens her grip on the top too much.

Mona Barthel was a little further under the radar when she broke onto the scene in January. Largely unknown when she qualified for Hobart, she stunned four seeds in a row to take the title and went on to notch wins over Jelena Jankovic and Marion Bartoli before the spring was over. She stumbled in the months that followed though, losing six matches in a row and losing her opening rounds in the last three Majors. She did manage a semifinal in Quebec City, but this week in Linz she seemed to revert immediately. In her first round against Kiki Bertens, she was able to force a deciding set, but couldn't convert a single point on return during it. After a relatively short hundred-minute match she was sent packing again, the eighth time this year the German wasn't able to win a match at an event. She still has enough points to hold on to a decent ranking, but she'll need to up her game if she wants to prove her early results this year were no fluke.

Tamira Paszek had made her breakthrough years ago, making the girls' final at both the Wimbledon and U.S. Open Juniors championships. She even made the fourth round in both events' main draws in 2007 and cracked the top forty at sixteen years of age. Her start to this season was less impressive -- she went 2-13 in the first five-and-a-half months -- but she quickly shut up any doubters with her performance in Eastbourne. Just a week before (successfully) defending a slew of quarterfinal points at the All England Club, she beat five higher ranked players to take her first title in almost two years. But she's struggled off the grass -- the Austrian managed to make the quarters in Montreal, but has only won a handful of matches elsewhere. In her homeland, the seventh seed, she should have been the aggressor, but committed too many errors against Bethanie Mattek-Sands in her first round. After losing her first set quickly, Paszek stayed close in the next, but couldn't defend her second serve and lost in another two-set match. Clearly a threat on the lawn, she's going to have to prove her power translates onto other surface if she wants to be a real threat to the top ranks.

And while all these ladies will need to execute a turn around, perhaps we'll be most closely watching the progression of Sabine Lisicki. My comeback story of 2011, she won two big titles and score a slew of upsets in her post-injury run. And while she seemed plagued with problems at the start of the year, she nevertheless worked to the #12 spot by May and made her way deep into the Wimbledon draw. Like Paszek, though, she didn't seem to find success off the grass -- Lisicki won just one match after the Olympics and earlier today fell in just over an hour to Linz wildcard Patricia Mayr-Achleitner, ranked #159 in the world. Injury has been a problem for the German for years, and she's intimated in the past that she might quit the game if her health doesn't hold up. Hopefully she'll make a turn for the better -- you can't deny that, when playing her best, she's one of the true stars of the game.

As the 2012 season winds down it may be too late for these ladies to turn things back in their favor this year, but that doesn't mean all hope is lost. A couple big wins here and there and they'll be back in the spotlight, back on the upswing. And if they are able to come out of hiding soon, play to their full potential, it could make for an interesting year to come.

The Days That Shook the Earth: Part II

It wouldn't be a Slam if the upsets didn't come early and often, but it sure seems like more favorites than usual are booking quick trips home*. Or maybe it's just that the magnitude of the upsets so far this week is so huge, it just feels that way. Whatever the case, the first couple days of action at Wimbledon have left us a lot to talk about. And this time it goes right to the top.

I guess I shouldn't be too surprised that Caroline Wozniacki didn't make it out of her first round match. Facing off against Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she wasn't exactly dealt an easy draw. But the women's bracket was affected much more deeply than that.

Na Li hasn't defended a lot of ranking points recently, and though she made a valiant effort to prove she's still relevant on clay, she didn't have the same luck on grass. After a solid first-round win over Ksenia Pervak, she ran into Sorana Cirstea, a fellow dirt specialist albeit one who might've proven herself a slightly better all-surface player. The young Romanian, who made her breakthrough a few years back in Paris, has been on the comeback trail all season and her win over the eleventh seed helped her match her best-ever performance at the All England Club. With a third round meeting against Maria Kirilenko, a woman she's beaten more times than she's lost to, she might just be able to last at least a few days longer.

Defending U.S. Open champion Sam Stosur had already improved on her first round exit from last year, but the three-time doubles finalist at the All England Club continues to struggle when she's by herself on these courts. After quickly dismissing Carla Suarez Navarro in her opener, the Netherlands' Arantxa Rus proved to be too much for the Aussie. The Dutchwoman, a winner over Kim Clijsters at last year's French, added one more top-ten player's pelt to her stash Wednesday. In a match fraught with service breaks, Rus was able to serve out the third set on her second attempt, earning herself a third-round date with eminently beatable Shaui Peng. For the twenty-one year old, putting together her best year at the Majors, it's a great opportunity to really make a run to the elite.

And while all these exits where shocking to an extent, they were nothing compared to what came next. Marion Bartoli has had some of her biggest successes on grass -- she made the final in 2007 and beat Serena Williams here last year. She may not have capitalized on a huge lead over eventual Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek last week, but as the ninth seed in London she nevertheless should have been a favorite to make the second week. But she might have fallen into a time warp earlier today when Mirjana Lucic, a semifinalist in 1999 and a qualifier this year, took her out in straight sets. The thirty-year old Croat has now pulled off two wins at a Major for the first time in over a decade, and though she will face a tough lawn-court player in Roberta Vinci next, she's proven she shouldn't be counted out just yet.

But of course the biggest shock was saved for the last match to finish Thursday. Two-time champion and three-time runner-up Rafael Nadal hasn't lost before a final here since 2005. Long thought of as a clay-court specialist, he's really been just as comfortable here. But his uneasiness was apparent today when he found himself down two sets to one to world #100 Lukas Rosol in his second round -- that after eking out the win in a long first-set tiebreak. He'd been in this position before -- he'd gotten down two rounds in a row in 2010 to Robin Haase and Phillipp Petzschner, but eventually won the crown that year -- but something was different this time. Just after Nadal evened the score around nine at night, refs paused play to close the fabled Centre Court roof and turn on the lights. When the match resumed momentum shifted back to the Czech and after a quick fifth set, it was the huge underdog left standing as winner. He'll meet a tricky Philipp Kohlschreiber next -- incidentally, the man who knocked Rafa out at Halle -- but it will certainly be an easier match than what he went through today. And for a man who's only won three matches total at a Slam, he may never have had such an opportunity.

So with all the craziness we've seen the last few days, I feel I have to add one thing to my list of things that have to happen at Wimbledon: someone -- if not everyone -- needs to follow through! We don't even have to look as far ahead as the next Slam, or even the next tournament. Just win one more match! Don't let all the effort put into these upsets exhaust every ounce energy for the next round! It'll clearly be easier for some of these players than others, but their performances so far show that each is capable of great things.

If they can keep the magic going just a few days more, it could change the landscape at the All England Club for a long time.

* Do I say that at some point in every Major?

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A Day to Reflect

There is traditionally no play scheduled for the middle Sunday of the Wimbledon fortnight, and after all the rain-delayed and interrupted matches last week, it's kind of amazing the tournament was able to stick to that scheduled. And the athletes, many of whom didn't get the usual day between rounds to recuperate due to the weather, must have appreciated the respite.

But with all round of sixteen matches set for tomorrow, the stakes only get higher when the weekend ends -- and a couple players who didn't expect to be around in Week Two have a lot to think about.

Little-known Czech Petra Cetkovska has been pro for more than a decade, but has never made much of an impact outside the ITF tournaments. Ranked just outside the top eighty, the twenty-six year old came to her third Wimbledon without ever having won a match here -- in fact she's only made it out of the opener of a Grand Slam twice. But she seems to have come to the All England Club with a mission.

After battling past a suddenly-improved Kristina Barrois, she pulled off an impressive comeback to take out thirteenth seed Aggie Radwanska in the second round. She followed up that win by devastating former #1 Ana Ivanovic on Saturday, winning eighty-five percent of her first serves and never allowing the Serb an opportunity to break. Cetkovska has now matched her best performance at a Major and has a decent chance of improving further -- though she next faces my dark horse Sabine Lisicki, if she plays up to potential, she's certainly capable of causing another upset.

In the other half of the women's draw, young Tamira Paszek has finally started to live up to her potential again. Twice a Grand Slam runner-up as a Junior, she made a splash her first year playing with the big girls, but only won two matches at the Majors since 2008. She's earned a couple trophies in the last five years, but has only qualified for a handful of events in 2011, so I certainly didn't expect her to put up much of a fight at the All England Club.

The twenty-one year old Austrian had the benefit of a few easy first rounds -- opening opponent Ayumi Morita sports a ranking about half of Tamira's but is no huge threat to the bug talents, and young American Christina McHale had taken out a talented Ekaterina Makarova in her first round, precluding Paszek from meeting a seed. Her colors truly came out, though, on Saturday, when she faced world #7 Francesca Schiavone. After dropping the first set she evened the score against the marathon woman and prevented her from serving out the match in the third a few times. After nearly four hours of play, she finally took the win -- her first over a top-ten player since 2008. And with a fourth round date with Ksenia Pervak, her opportunity to make a real statement at Wimbledon this year couldn't be better.

The men, too, have seen more than a fair number of spoilers make it to the fourth round, but perhaps none is more shocking than eighteen-year-old Australian Bernard Tomic. Long considered one of the real upcoming talents in the sport, Tomic did his part to excite the hometown crowd down in Melbourne, but with just three Tour-level wins this year -- and six losses -- he has yet to break into the top hundred.

That day may soon be coming. The qualifier at Wimbledon opened his main draw with a straight-set win over former #3 Nikolay Davydenko and then came back from two sets down to Igor Andreev in his second round. If those victories weren't impressive enough, he came on the court against fifth seed Robin Soderling with more confidence than most elite players. He ran off to a 5-0 lead in the first set and never lagged in the match, advancing to his first Major fourth round in under two hours. With veteran Xavier Malisse waiting for him next, he might just be able to put together the best qualifier's run we've seen in some time.

And though Feliciano Lopez has been around for quite some time -- he's been pro about fourteen years now -- he never had the breakthrough many of his contemporaries did. He made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon two times before, but batting just over .500 in 2011, he's fallen back out of seeding territory at the Majors.

Lopez, too, was blessed with a fairly easy draw early. Michael Berrer proved to be a fairly easy first round opponent and 2008 semifinalist Rainer Schuettler took care of Thomaz Bellucci for him. But against Andy Roddick, a man who came into their third round match with an unspoiled 7-0 record against the Spaniard, he really showed his stuff. He took early leads in the first two tiebreaks and earned the only break of serve in the third set to get the win. Next up he'll face world #93 Lukasz Kubot, a player who's been impressive in his own right -- there will certainly be challenges here, but something tells me "Deliciano" will remind us all he's not just a pretty face.

All four of these players not only have pulled off some stunning wins over their first weeks at Wimbledon, but they have legitimate chances to continue their runs at the most regal of Grand Slams. For some, it could be the start to a brilliant career, while for others it's an opportunity to finally back themselves up.

And as we approach the end of the line in London, everyone left in the field better take notice.