A Curse on the Big Courts

It's been two years since we last saw play at Wimbledon, and it seems like the goblins that lurk in the shadows of Wimbledon took it upon themselves to dole out punishments for that absense. In the first 48 hours of this year's event, we've already seen plenty of favorites get quite literally tripped up on the grass, some squeaking by the seat of their pants, and others not so lucky at all.

We're heartbroken for you, Serena.

Our seven-time singles champion is forced to retire from The Championships 2021 through injury#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/vpcW1UN78s

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 29, 2021

The big shocker, of course, came late today when seven-time champion Serena Williams was forced to retire in the seventh game of her first round match. She was playing well to start, but on a Centre Court that had already caused more slips and slides than we'd ever seen, she seemed to twist her knee while up an early break and never recovered. Though she returned from a medical time out, she was in tears trying to serve out her game and could barely move to the ball when returning. Within minutes she was at the net, ceding the win to world #100 Aliaksandra Sasnovich.

Serena's exit means more than just another seed out of the Championships. While she may have only be seeded sixth, she was widely considered a favorite for the title. She had, after all, made at least the final here on her last four appearances, and with 98 match wins here, more than any woman other than Martina Navratilova, it seems clear she would add at least a little bit to her total. But instead she notched only her second first round loss at a Major and her first Slam retirement since 1998. And, of course, her four year pursuit of that record 24^th Big Title will continue at least a few more months. Did she just lose her best chance to get it? Well, it's probably too soon to say that, but you know chances are getting ever more remote these days.

As are the chances of Roger Federer, who survived his own set of trolls one match earlier on Centre Court. The eight-time champion was not playing his best against Adrian Mannarino in his opening round, getting out-served in the second and third set and finding himself in a deep hole early. But the Frenchman, who had only taken one set off the legend in their previous six meetings, also lost his footing deep in the fourth. He watched a couple balls whiz past him before retiring himself after losing the set, allowing Roger to book his ticket for the eighteenth straight time.

But the fact that he was tested suggests it's going to be a long road for the GOAT 🐐 contender to make it back to the final. Like Serena, he had good odds to win this title, but at a month away from 40, the window of opportunity to pick up Major #21 is closing quick. After a career where he saw thankfully few injuries for so long, he took more than a year off after losing in Australia in 2020 and hasn't been quite the force he traditionally was since his return. Hopefully, though, he'll be able to shake off the demons that plagued him in round one and make use of the opportunity that was given him.

Of course, for every favorite that was challenged, we have an underdog who got an opportunity. One-time U.S. Open champ Sloane Stephens, who's been mounting a nice comeback this summer, stunned two-time titleholder Petra Kvitova in straight sets on Monday. Andy Murray, playing at his first Wimbledon since 2017, shook off a seven-game losing streak in the third set to get the win over 24^th seed Nikoloz Basilashvili. And Frances Tiafoe dealt a massive blow to French Open runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, his first win over a top five player ever.

But there's a lot of play left to go at Wimbledon, and there's no telling who the gremlins will go after next. But hopefully they've got the worst out of their system, and we'll be in store for only good surprises from now on.

The Final Countdown

We're officially in the last stretch of this abbreviated and infinitely strange 2020 tennis season, with the last big event before the ATP Finals now underway. And with so few opportunities for players to make really big statements this year, perhaps it's no surprise that such a diverse field is hoping to close out 2020 with a strong performance at the Paris Masters.

Maybe somewhat surprisingly, all four of last week's finalists are back in the draw this week. John Millman, fresh off his first career title in Nur-Sultan, opens his campaign against a tough Miomir Kecmanovic and could next face U.S. Open finalist Alexander Zverev, who, despite two straight titles in Cologne, finds himself embroiled in scandal yet again this year. And Adrian Mannarino, who he beat yesterday, looms as a potential third round.

Meanwhile Vienna (🙏) Cinderella Lorenzo Sonego, a lucky loser who jumped to a career high #32 ranking with a stunning victory over Novak Djokovic last week, starts in Paris against tricky server Alexander Bublik. And Andrey Rublev, who booked his first ticket to the year-end championship by winning the title in Austria, has a second round date with Radu Albot. He's trying to earn an inspiring sixth title this year.

Congratulations, @AndreyRublev97!#ErsteBankOpen pic.twitter.com/fRyQ1ItfWy

— Erste Bank Open (@ErsteBankOpen) November 1, 2020

Then there's under-the-radar Ugo Humbert, who picked up his second trophy of 2020 in Antwerp a few weeks ago and extended his win streak today by outlasting Casper Ruud in three sets. For his efforts, he'll be awarded a second round against second seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.

But there are a couple players in the field who are trying less to keep their recent momentum going, and more to turn around their luck. There are plenty to choose from, from David Goffin to one-time U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic. But highest on my list is Daniil Medvedev, who I thought last year would be virtually unstoppable against the top players. He's been rather lackluster in 2020, making the semis at the U.S. Open, but losing his first round at Roland Garros. He could potentially face off against Kevin Anderson, who beat him last week in Vienna, in the second round and while the South African is certainly well of his best game, he might be able to pull off an upset.

And of course, I can't leave out Diego Schwartzman, who's certainly won a lot of hearts with his performance this year. The Argentine, who stunned Rafael Nadal in Rome and made the French Open semis, has the ATP Finals in his sights for the first time in his career and would clinch it with a final appearance in Paris. He hasn't suffered a lot of upsets recently and with Medvedev the only other seed in his quarter, he could make a real play for the finish line.

Of course, there are a couple notable names absent from the Paris Masters draw this year, which could create some opportunities for spoilers. Some of that comes down to the COVID-altered ranking methodology, which allows players to count points from the better of their performances at an event in either this year or last. That's why Novak Djokovic, who won the title last year in Paris, had no incentive to defend those points and chose instead to lock in a year-end #1 with a couple wins in Vienna last week. Then there are players like Dominic Thiem, injured during his quarter final last week, who pulled out just before the draw was announced, and Gael Monfils, red-hot before the shutdown and winless since, who said he was ending his season last week.

Can the slew of lucky losers in the draw take advantage of those openings? Could top seeded Rafael Nadal take home his first hard court title in Paris -- how weird to think he's had such vastly different results in the same city?!

Whatever the case, it'll be interesting to see if these players can close out the year on a high note. While, at the end of the day, their performances may not be what we remember most about 2020, for each of them, this is a great opportunity to start to write a new story.

Breakthroughs and Comebacks

It seems to be a common occurrence in the weeks right after a Major, where the pressure is a little off, that we see players who've been struggling with form come out swinging. And yesterday we saw a couple champions crowned after what seems like a long, long time out of the spotlight, and, in come cases, completely out of contention.

We've seen Bernard Tomic climb and fall in the rankings -- and in life -- for years, surging into the low twenties after a Cinderella run to the Wimbledon quarters four years ago, dropping well out of the top hundred at this time last year, and grabbing as many headlines for his off-court behavior as for his play. But despite all the distractions, the one-time Australian wünderkind came to Bogota to defend a title at near his highest career ranking. He wasn't without his challenges though -- the second seed dropped sets against little-known Adrian Menendez-Maceiras and triple-digit ranked Michael Berrer, and even was tested by underrated Adrian Mannarino in the final. The Frenchman, who'd avenged a loss to Newport champion Rajeev Ram in his opener and scored a huge win over big-serving Ivo Karlovic in the semis, was able to push Tomic to a third set, but ultimately succumbed. Tomic's win gives him his third career title but may have also proved he's an even bigger threat when he seems most down-and-out.

Sam Stosur had climbed even higher than her compatriot during her heyday, but the former Grand Slam champion has seemed well off her career best the last few months. She hadn't won more than three matches at any Major since 2012 and had spent most of this year ranked outside the top twenty. The thirty-one year old veteran had picked up a title in Strasbourg in May, but was pushed to a decider in her last three matches and didn't play a top-forty player during her campaign. On paper her draw in Bad Gastein may not have been much more intimidating, but she nevertheless did face off against some heavy-hitters -- she dropped just one game to recent star Klara Koukalova and ended Anna Schmiedlova's impressive run in the semis. In the final against Karin Knapp -- a woman who was playing her second double-header of the week, having taken out top seed Sara Errani earlier on Sunday -- she was arguably better rested, but nonetheless challenged again. The Italian won the first set and took the second to a tiebreak, but Stosur didn't give up -- she ploughed through the third set and come out the winner in the two and a half hour match. It earner her a eighth career title and pushed her back up to #21 in the world -- if she keeps it up on her favorite summer hard court season, the former U.S. Open titleist might just be able to make a case for another strong showing in New York.

Dominic Thiem is much earlier on in his career so doesn't have quite the same spoils to show for his efforts -- but the young Austrian is certainly coming into his own this year. He'd been a little quiet since breaking the title seal in Nice, winning just three matches between that and his trip to Umag last week, but the twenty-one year old was able to turn things around in Croatia. After winning his first two matches by retirement, he scored a solid comeback win against tournament favorite Gael Monfils, setting up a championship bout against barely unseeded Joao Sousa. The Portuguese workhorse had already taken out Andreas Seppi, Fabio Fognini and Roberto Bautista Agut on the way to his first final of the year and may have been a little spent by the time he met up against Thiem. The fourth seed powered through a tight first set, but then rolled over his opponent in the second for his third straight win over Sousa and his second crown of the year. Now at a career-high #24 in the world he may be in a position to really make a statement at the big events now -- and if he can put up the same kind of performances against the very top players, it won't be long before the more prestigious titles start coming too.

Elsewhere on Tour a couple players were trying to make their first big impressions on championship Sunday. Lesia Tsurenko had picked up a couple ITF titles during her career, but had never reached the final on the Big Girls' circuit. The twenty-six year old Ukrainian did make a great run to the Indian Wells quarterfinals with wins over Genie Bouchard and Andrea Petkovic to name a few, but only won three matches since then and was ranked outside the top seventy when she hit the courts in Istanbul. That didn't seem to phase her much, though -- after taking out a tough Daria Gavrilova in her opener, she trounced both Daniela Hantuchova and Kirsten Flipkens. Meanwhile Urszula Radwanska, well off her career best since dealing with a slew of injuries the last few seasons, was also going for her first title -- she'd made the final in Den Bosch three years ago -- and stood a pretty good shot at picking one up earlier in 2015 than her more decorated older sister. She'd taken out Jelena Jankovic to start and then powered past a strong Tsvetana Pironkova in the quarters. She put up a fight too on Sunday, but Tsurenko proved the more ready -- after a 7-5 first set, she ran away with the second, closing out the match in just over ninety minutes. The win rocketed her into the top fifty for the first time in her career may just make others sit up and take notice the next time she takes the court.

Up in Bastad a one-time top-thirty player was trying to prove he's still worth paying attention to. Benoit Paire had topped out at #24 in the world early last year but since dropping into the triple digits spent a lot of time this season on the Challengers' and Futures circuit. He did manage a win over Fabio Fognini at the French Open and over Mikhail Youzhny at Wimbledon, but he came to the Swedish Open an unseeded #62. Still, he impressively stopped David Goffin, who was coming off quite a successful Davis Cup showing over the weekend, and then took out an often overlooked Pablo Cuevas in the semis. His biggest test waited for him in the final, though, where veteran Tommy Robredo was seeking his third crown at this event. With a much lower ranking and having lost the pair's only previous meeting -- and, not unimportantly, playing his first career championship match -- Paire was a heavy underdog. But he didn't let that trouble him -- after eking out the opening set in a tight tiebreak, he scored the only break of the match in the second and clinched the first really big win of his career. Now back in the top fifty, he's still well off his best. But after seeing him finally power through a draw like he did last week, he might finally be able to push his way higher.

By the Skin of Their Teeth

It's been a warm couple days Down Under, but it wasn't just the rising temperatures that put the heat on players at the Australian Open. More than a couple favorites were given quite the run-around during their second round matches by some very capable opponents. And how the survivors regroup for their next challenges could reveal a lot about their prospects down the road, both here and for the rest of the year.

You might not expect too much out of low-seeded Elina Svitolina -- the twenty-year-old has only won a couple matches in Melbourne during her short career, but she did beat Petra Kvitova in Cincinnati last year and Angelique Kerber earlier this month in Brisbane. The two-time Junior Grand Slam finalist -- she won the French when she was fifteen -- certainly has the potential to make her mark on Tour in the coming years, and on Thursday she showed she can stay tough under pressure. She was pushed through two long sets by U.S. college champion Nicole Gibbs, recovering from a 1-5 deficit in the second and then keeping her opponent from serving out the set. The young Ukrainian's path forward is admittedly the toughest of this group -- she'll face Serena Williams in the next round, and the top seed allowed her just three games in their one previous meeting. But Serena's notched some surprising losses already this year and was down set points against one-time Wimbledon rival Vera Zvonareva in her last match. She's also gone home early in three of the last four Majors, so Svitolina does have a chance. And even if she doesn't ultimately emerge the victor, how she handles the challenge could say more than the eventual scoreline.

Twelfth seed Feliciano Lopez has already been on the wrong side of a couple scorelines this week. The veteran Spaniard is coming off the best year of his career, but he's had to rally big time in his first two matches -- against American wildcard Denis Kudla in his opener, he found himself down two-sets-to-one and fought off match points late in the decider before finally closing out the match 10-8 in the fifth. He understandably seemed tuckered out in Thursday's heat, losing the first two sets to Auckland finalist Adrian Mannarino and facing another match point. But his opponent suffered more late in the match -- after losing the third set tiebreak, the Frenchman lost four games in a row before retiring, and Feli again squeaked through a round he'd come so close to dropping. Next up he'll face big serving Jerzy Janowicz, another man who barely edged out a win Thursday -- he came back from two-sets-to-one down against Gael Monfils to reach his third straight third round in Melbourne. The pair have never met before, and after the long couple matches they've each faced, this one could be a little messy. But Feli will want to make a statement here and prove he's getting by on more than just a little bit of luck.

A couple other champions, though, may use their close calls in the last round to fuel them to even more dominating performances throughout the week.

Coming into the Australian Open, 2008 champ Maria Sharapova had been one of the favorites for the crown -- a solid run to the Brisbane title and a one-sided win over Petra Martic in her first round seemed to underscore the Russian's chances. She began her second round against qualifier Alexandra Panova -- a woman who'd just won her first Major main draw match this week -- in similar fashion, breaking three times and taking the opening set in under half an hour. But the underdog found a way to rally, holding onto an early lead in the second to force a decider, and even running off with a most unlikely two-break advantage in the third. But as she often does, MaSha was able to play her best when she was under the most pressure -- she saved three match points on Panova's serve and won the last three games with a whirlwind of powerful winners. She might not have expected a test so soon in her campaign, but it may have lit a fire under the world #2 -- against thirty-first seed Zarina Diyas on Friday, I expect her to be relentless and wouldn't be surprised if she finished off the match in under an hour.

Hopefully Rafael Nadal can do the same, though it's arguably a much more difficult ask. The 2009 titleist in Melbourne may have retained the #3 seed this fortnight, but after an injury-addled 2014 season and a disappointing start in Doha, he was still a long shot to make even the second week here. He kicked off his run strongly though, needing just over ninety minutes to dispatch former U.S. Open semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny in what could have been a tough early test. His bigger challenge came unexpectedly a match later, when qualifier Tim Smyczek threatened to become the fourth sub-#100 player to beat the Grand Slam champion in the past year. The American took a two-set-to-one lead on an ailing Rafa Wednesday, but the Spaniard dug deep himself, grinding to a deciding set and finally converting his fourth match point after more than four hours on court. He was barely spared a rematch against one-time Wimbledon vanquisher Lukas Rosol and will instead meet unseeded Dudi Sela for a ticket into the second week. Hopefully his struggles over the last few months and days haven't taken too much out of him and he'll have enough time to recover.

After all, there's still a lot of action left to be played before the winners are finally crowned at the Australian Open. And the most successful players will be the ones who not only scrape by early challenges, but turn them into even bigger opportunities.

Southern Charm

It's an interesting cast of characters that made its way down to picturesque Delray Beach this year. Maybe it's the warm sun or the beautiful shores that attracted them -- or maybe it's the opportunity they saw to capture all our hearts.

After all, defending champion Ernest Gulbis elected to forego the tournament in favor of Dubai and top seeded Andy Roddick pulled out with the flu. Couple that with early exits by Sam Querrey adn John Isner, and you have the exact recipe for some unexpected players to make a statement in this Southern town.

Sure second seed and 2009 winner Mardy Fish is still looking strong while Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson, both of whom won their first career titles earlier this year, are still in the mix. But I've got my eyes on some nascent talent.

Young American Ryan Sweeting was the first hometown boy to make the quarterfinals when he defeated Querrey in straight sets. The twenty-three year old first got people talking in DC last year when he beat James Blake and Michael Llodra to make the third round. This year he fought through the qualifiers in Melbourne and put up a nice fight against Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open second round, but he seems to be gaining traction this week. Next up he'll face a resurgent Kei Nishikori, the champion here in 2008, so Sweeting will be in for a fight, but if he continues to serve well -- he hit an impressive seven aces against Sam -- I think he could break out here.

In the other half of the draw are two more guys primed for a break out. Teymuraz Gabashvili hasn't racked up the best record this year, but made the fourth round at Roland Garros in 2010 with a stunning, straight-set win over Andy Roddick. After withstanding twenty-one aces from John Isner in the first round, he outlasted the big man in Florida, winning the third set 15-13 in a tiebreak. He'll face another former big-server next in Juan Martin Del Potro, but the Argentine seems to have lost some of his weapons recently, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an upset.

Maybe most promising in the bunch is eighth seeded Adrian Mannarino, a twenty-two year old Frenchman I admittedly hadn't even heard of before this year. He made a huge jump into the low triple-digits when he put up a couple solid showings at Challenger events last summer, but a run to the quarters in Auckland, almost defeating Nicolas Almagro to make the semis, really put him on the radar. Since then, Mannarino made the semis in Johannesburg and took Lleyton Hewitt to three sets in Memphis before scoring the win over Leonardo Mayer in his Delray debut. With a second round date against Alejandro Falla later today, I'd expect him to make an even deeper run here.

The last couple years have really seen some underdogs prevail down south, so I see no reason that trend should end now. And with the way these guys do -- and have been known to -- play, they could become major staples on Tour this year. So get ready for them to continue charming your socks off -- at the very least for the rest of this week.