Shaking Things Up

It's never fun when things go exactly as planned at a tennis tournament, and while the top men have certainly been less prone to big upsets than their counterparts on the women's Tour, even the favorites are certainly capable of surprising us from time to time. And this week, more than others it seems, the underdogs are capitalizing on any opportunity they get.

Dominic Thiem hasn't made it easy for the other guys in Kitzbühel, as last year's finalist has extended his win streak to ten straight matches with his win today over Albert Montanes. But his run has to end some time, and a couple hopefuls in Austria could make a case to be the one to do it. Thiem's next opponent Philipp Kohlschreiber, who started the year off kind of slow, reached the championship match in Munich and notched a nice upset over Hamburg runner-up Fabio Fognini in the quarter. He's never faced off against the rising star, but the veteran German might just have the experience to get the win. More of a threat, though, might be Nicolas Almagro, whose injury addled season has dropped him well out of the top hundred -- the clay court specialist hasn't done too much in his comeback, but so far this week has scored wins over 2014 breakout Jiri Vesely and hometown favorite Jurgen Melzer. He may have a less-than-encouraging 1-2 record against his next opponent, qualifier Paul-Henri Mathieu, but if he's really back in form he should be able to make a play for not only the final, but maybe even the title.

Over on the hardcourts of Washington, D.C. there's been even more drama -- and even bigger surprises. American Steve Johnson, who's already given us a glimpse of his potential this year, notched his second straight win over world #26 Bernard Tomic, having beaten him earlier this summer in Halle. He'll face a bigger challenge against Grigor Dimitrov next, but the talented Bulgarian has struggled more than a little this year and could be more vulnerable than his sixth seed suggests. Then there's teenager Alexander Zverev who, despite a semifinal run in Bastad, is still just inside the top hundred. But on Wednesday he stunned big-serving Kevin Anderson to set up a third round against Alexandr Dolgopolov, a man who's had a hard time recapturing form since knee surgery last year -- there's no reason the young German can't take advantage of his opponent. But of course the biggest opportunity in D.C. comes courtesy of Teymuraz Gabashvili, who last night pulled off the biggest upset of his career so far, beating top seeded Andy Murray -- the first and only one of the Big Four to ever play in the U.S. capital -- in a nearly three-hour match. While there are more than a few seeds still in this half of the draw, the thirty year old Georgian by far cleared out the biggest threat. While anyone left could benefit from the big hole in the bracket, Gabashvili might just have established himself as the one to beat.

Of course it's one thing for any of these players to score one big win during a tournament -- what really makes a difference is if they can follow it up with another. But any one of them has the potential to make things even more interesting than they already have been this week -- and hopefully keep their momentum going even longer.

How the Mighty Have Fallen

We really shouldn't be that surprised when top players are caught off guard at the French Open -- after all, the clay doesn't suit everyone, and just last year we saw plenty of players who usually thrive on the surface stumble right out of the blocks in Paris. And with one round of play in the books so far at Roland Garros, that trend seems more than alive and well in 2015.

In my preview pieces leading up to the year's second Grand Slam, I almost regretted omitting Venus Williams as a potential dark horse. The former world #1 has been staging quite a comeback over the last several months, kicking off the season with a title in Auckland and climbing to her highest ranking since 2011. But the American champion has never really fared that well on the French clay --since finishing runner-up to her sister in 2002, she's only made it past the fourth round twice. And this go-round she struggled again -- against an unseeded Sloane Stephens yesterday, she put up a fight in the first set, narrowly losing the tiebreak after more than an hour of play, but then crumbled in the second, winning just fifteen points. For Sloane, it could be a huge opportunity -- she's reached the Round of Sixteen the last three years -- but she'll likely face big threats from the likes of Victoria Azarenka and Venus's younger sister, who she hasn't beaten since that amazing campaign in Melbourne two years ago. Still after taking down another giant, she might just have a little more confidence for the rest of her run.

Feliciano Lopez never rose quite as high as Venus, of course, but after a stellar 2014 season, he was still holding close to his highest career ranking. He reached the quarters in Indian Wells with a win over Kei Nishikori and took out an on-point Nick Kyrgios a few weeks back in Rome. And though he's got plenty of first and second round losses at the French Open, with a #11 seed, you might have thought he was ready to change that. But he was stunned yesterday by fellow veteran Teymuraz Gabashvili, a Russian he'd only met once before, way back in 2006. The world #76 has lost his opening round at sixteen Majors, but didn't seem intimidated by the heavy favorite -- on the heels of two clay Challengers titles, he kept his momentum going, earning the only two breaks of the match and setting up a second round against dirt specialist Juan Monaco. It won't be an easy task -- Gabashvili has lost their two previous matches -- but he did put up a fight in their last one at Indian Wells and after the tight match the Argentine endured in his opener, could be the more rested and ready for this battle.

Aga Radwanska has been a little more of her game recently than these guys, but the one-time Wimbledon finalist has had a rough couple months -- she failed spectacularly to defend runner-up points at Indian Wells and lost early at lead-up events in Madrid and Rome. She came to Roland Garros at a #14 ranking, her lowest in four years, looking to reclaim the momentum that saw her through to the quarters in 2013 -- she was upset last year, you may remember, by then-#72 Ajla Tomljanovic in the third round, but to no avail. Against an often spotty Annika Beck -- the twenty year old picked up her first career title last fall in Luxembourg but had won just three matches this year before coming to Paris -- Aga had a shot. After dropping the opening set she fought back to force a decider, but with a pathetic eleven winners to the German's forty-one, she stood little chance of clinching the comeback. It was her first first-round loss at a Slam since 2009, but perhaps during her traditionally lackluster clay season, it wasn't such a big deal. For Beck, on the other hand, who's never made it out of a Major second round, the opportunity could be huge -- she'll meet qualifier Paula Kania in the next round and there's no reason she won't be able to go even farther after that.

And as surprising as these upsets were, things got even more interesting today. Bulgaria's Grigor Dimitrov, who'd established himself as a threat at most of the big events last year, has had a slightly less impressive season in 2015. Though he's still just a hair outside the top ten and has notched a couple wins over former Australian Open champ Stan Wawrinka, he's also been upset by the likes of Pablo Cuevas, Gilles Muller and triple-digit ranked Ryan Harrison. He didn't have a lot on the line in Paris -- he got beat in last year's opener by then-unseeded Ivo Karlovic -- but he surely wanted to set things right. But in an ugly match against American Jack Sock, he couldn't seem to find his groove. After a tight first set, he let loose twenty errors and dropped serve three times, handing the U.S. men their first win over a top ten seed since 2000. The barely unseeded Sock has a good chance at staying alive a bit longer -- he next faces world #61 Pablo Carreño Busta and then either young Borna Coric or veteran Tommy Robredo. But the Houston champion's shown he can hit hard on this surface too and could establish himself as a real force this fortnight.

But as surprising as Dimitrov's early exit might have been, perhaps we should be a little more shocked at what we saw from a 2014 semifinalist. Genie Bouchard was riding high at this time last year, having just picked up her first career title in Nürnberg and riding her momentum all the way to a second straight final four at a Major. But the world #6 has struggled mightily in the last few months, winning just one of her last seven matches heading into Paris, and notching embarrassing losses to little-known Andreea Mitu and on-the-rebound Alexandra Dulgheru at Fed Cup. To be fair, she was dealt a pretty tough draw at Roland Garros, opening against Strasbourg finalist Kristina Mladenovic, one of my sleeper picks for the event. The Frenchwoman had already established herself as a giant killer at this event before, and on Tuesday she was even more impressive -- taking advantage of weak serving from her opponent, she won more than half her return points and broke the Canadian five times. Pressure will be on Kiki to keep her momentum going from here, of course, but she won't face another high seed for a few more rounds, and after her performance the last few weeks she looks well-poised to make a real splash now on the singles circuit.

Of course these won't be the only upsets we see over the next two weeks -- nor will they likely be the biggest -- but it sure seems like a lot of the recent heavy hitters took a couple of real blows in the early days of the Open. They'll need to regroup quickly to make sure their slides don't go much further, though.

And as for those who vanquished them, they'll have to celebrate their victories quickly and get straight back to work. After all, there's a lot more ball left to be played.

Shooting for #1

Okay, it's probably a long shot to think that any of the players I'm going to talk about here will be rising to the very top of the ATP rankings any time soon -- but with some impressive performances in the early days of the clay court season, there are a couple men in action this week who have a real shot at picking up their first career titles. And you might be a little surprised to see who's still in the mix.

In Casablanca top seeded Guillermo Garcia Lopez was stunned by wildcard Lamine Ouahab of Morocco, and that created a big hole in the top half of the draw -- so far Daniel Gimeno-Traver has seemed more than happy to fill it. The world #95 has picked up a handful of wins over top ten players during his career, but has never made a significant run in the rankings himself. He's got fourteen Challengers titles to his name though, and seems ready to make a stand on the ATP Tour now. He was well in control of his match against Mikhail Kukushkin when the seventh seed retired in their second round and then dismissed Ouahab with little drama today to reach the semis. Though he'll face wünderkind Jiri Vesely next, he could use experience to his advantage and may finally be able to get his big break. Young Damir Dzumhur has a similar opportunity -- the twenty-two year old Bosnian had only won eleven matches on Tour during his career and had to qualify for most of the events he's played this year. But at the Grand Prix Hassan he's so far looked on-point -- he got a straight-set win over veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu in his opener and on Friday notched an easy win over sixth seed Andreas Haider-Maurer in just over an hour. Next he'll meet Martin Klizan, a man who's had ups and downs throughout his career, and it's not impossible to think Dzumhur has a real shot at getting the upset.

Things have been just as interesting in Houston, even with most of the seeds doing well through their early rounds. It hasn't been all smooth sailing though -- 2013 titleist John Isner, fresh off a stellar run in Miami couldn't keep his momentum going on the dirt and fell in yesterday's late night match. His vanquisher, Teymuraz Gabashvili has pulled off big wins in the past -- he stunned Andy Roddick at Roland Garros back in 2010 and took out David Ferrer in Barcelona just last year. Still at #79 in the world he's usually far off the radar. But he still could surprise us -- he faces defending champion Fernando Verdasco next, and the Spaniard has been famously spotty of late. He could be caught off guard this time too. And Jack Sock, back in action after surgery cut short his breakout 2014 season, scored his second straight win over second seeded Roberto Bautista-Agut yesterday. His next opponent, Colombian Santiago Giraldo may be the on-paper favorite, but with a middling 7-9 record on the year he's been far from impressive, and the young American could surely take advantage.

Sure there are still a couple more matches left before this weekend's champions are crowned, but the performances these guys have put up so far this week may show just how hungry they are to nab that elusive first title. And once they break the seal, there's no telling how far they can go.

Southern Charm

It's an interesting cast of characters that made its way down to picturesque Delray Beach this year. Maybe it's the warm sun or the beautiful shores that attracted them -- or maybe it's the opportunity they saw to capture all our hearts.

After all, defending champion Ernest Gulbis elected to forego the tournament in favor of Dubai and top seeded Andy Roddick pulled out with the flu. Couple that with early exits by Sam Querrey adn John Isner, and you have the exact recipe for some unexpected players to make a statement in this Southern town.

Sure second seed and 2009 winner Mardy Fish is still looking strong while Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson, both of whom won their first career titles earlier this year, are still in the mix. But I've got my eyes on some nascent talent.

Young American Ryan Sweeting was the first hometown boy to make the quarterfinals when he defeated Querrey in straight sets. The twenty-three year old first got people talking in DC last year when he beat James Blake and Michael Llodra to make the third round. This year he fought through the qualifiers in Melbourne and put up a nice fight against Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open second round, but he seems to be gaining traction this week. Next up he'll face a resurgent Kei Nishikori, the champion here in 2008, so Sweeting will be in for a fight, but if he continues to serve well -- he hit an impressive seven aces against Sam -- I think he could break out here.

In the other half of the draw are two more guys primed for a break out. Teymuraz Gabashvili hasn't racked up the best record this year, but made the fourth round at Roland Garros in 2010 with a stunning, straight-set win over Andy Roddick. After withstanding twenty-one aces from John Isner in the first round, he outlasted the big man in Florida, winning the third set 15-13 in a tiebreak. He'll face another former big-server next in Juan Martin Del Potro, but the Argentine seems to have lost some of his weapons recently, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an upset.

Maybe most promising in the bunch is eighth seeded Adrian Mannarino, a twenty-two year old Frenchman I admittedly hadn't even heard of before this year. He made a huge jump into the low triple-digits when he put up a couple solid showings at Challenger events last summer, but a run to the quarters in Auckland, almost defeating Nicolas Almagro to make the semis, really put him on the radar. Since then, Mannarino made the semis in Johannesburg and took Lleyton Hewitt to three sets in Memphis before scoring the win over Leonardo Mayer in his Delray debut. With a second round date against Alejandro Falla later today, I'd expect him to make an even deeper run here.

The last couple years have really seen some underdogs prevail down south, so I see no reason that trend should end now. And with the way these guys do -- and have been known to -- play, they could become major staples on Tour this year. So get ready for them to continue charming your socks off -- at the very least for the rest of this week.

A Perfect Run

A week into this year's French Open, and some things have happened as you might have predicted -- neither last year's champ Roger Federer nor the King of Clay Rafael Nadal has dropped a set in their first three matches. But a couple less obvious players have been progressing through the bracket just as flawlessly and certainly hope to continue their own runs.

Stanislas Wawrinka is probably the least surprising of that second tier. The world #24 won a title early this clay court season in Casablanca and had been ranked in the top ten just two years ago. He also beat Robin Soderling in the third round of Rome, so you know he's got game -- but maybe you didn't realize just how much. True, he's had a fairly easy road so far -- his first round opponent, Jan Hajek, is ranked #75 and Andreas Beck, whom he met in the second, is seventy-four. His biggest threat would have been Gael Monfils, but a little-known Italian took care of the hometown favorite for him. But Wawrinka will face his compatriot and friend Federer in the round of sixteen, so something tells me his clear scorecard may soon get a blemish or two.

Beating Roger isn't an insurmountable task, though, as Miami finalist Tomas Berdych certainly knows. And the fifteenth seed at Roland Garros is trying to parlay his early season luck into his best career showing in Paris. He's been perfect so far, too, this week, even having an easy time with John Isner, one of the best hopes the U.S. had for a deep run. And though he faces Andy Murray next, he might have the best chance of staying untarnished -- this is hardly Murray's best surface and if the Czech can get momentum on his side, he might be able to pull off the upset.

Russia's Teymuraz Gabashvili has already had to pull off the upset of his career to make the fourth round. On Saturday morning he defeated Andy Roddick in a surprisingly easy three sets, taking less than two hours to do so. And if it wasn't enough, sending home the highest ranked player on the men's side so far, the world #114 had to fight through three qualifying rounds just to make the main draw. By the way, he didn't lose a set in the quallies, either.

Of course, things are only going to get harder from here -- to get any further Teymuraz will have to beat Jurgen Melzer who just defeated a much tougher clay-court player in David Ferrer earlier today. But stranger things have certainly happened before.

And if nothing else, all these guys with their relatively low-drama, short-duration matches, should at least be strong enough to put up a fight!