The Unlikely Leader

If I'd asked you at the start the year who, a month away from the start of the French Open, you thought would be the winningest player on dirt, chances are 33-year-old Albert Ramos-Viñolas wouldn't have featured high on your list.

Ranked barely in the top fifty at the beginning of the season -- barely cracking the top forty over the last three years -- the veteran Spaniard has long been vastly overshadowed by his much more decorated compatriots, scoring a few big wins here and there, but never really having the breakthrough of his contemporaries.

Perhaps that is about to change.

🏆 Bastad
🏆 Gstaad
🏆 Estoril@albertramos88 picks up his third ATP Tour title with a 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) win over Norrie 💪 @EstorilOpen pic.twitter.com/tVCPezRbIT

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 2, 2021

Ramos kicked off his clay campaign in Córdoba this year, where he stunned top seeded Diego Schwartzman and three other Argentines on their home turf before ultimately falling to young, history-making Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the final. A week later he reached the semis in Buenos Aires, losing this time to the elder Cernudolo, Francisco, in another three set nail-biter.

He got right back to work after the Golden Swing ended, going the distance in all three of his matches on his way to the Marbella semis and forcing Andrey Rublev, fresh off a monster win over Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo, to sweat it out in Barcelona. All that work gave him a season-leading eleven clay court wins going into this week's action, better than Rafa with seven and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who broke into a new level with his win at the Rolex Masters and then barely lost to Rafa in the Barcelona final -- he has nine.

Sure, Ramos's victories may have come at smaller events, but that doesn't negate their value. And he even widened the gap this week. Seeded seventh in Estoril, he finally had the benefit of some drama-free wins, dispatching his first four opponents, including former world #7 Fernando Verdasco and rising star Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, in straight sets.

In Sunday's final against Britain's Cameron Norrie, he was finally tested, dropping the first set and getting down another break before turning things around. The more experienced Ramos was able to break back in a marathon game early in the second set and after nearly three hours on court finally secured the win -- now his sixteenth clay court victory this year.

It was, I was surprised to learn, only Ramos's third career title -- given how long he's been on tour, it seemed like he should have been picking up a couple more over the years. But with by far more wins than anyone on clay this season, and a few weeks stil to go for this stretch, I imagine he'll get the opportunity to try for a few more.

Will that make him a factor when the stakes really get raised at Roland Garros? Well, it is the only Major where he's gotten past the third round -- he made the quarters there in 2016 with wins over Milos Raonic and a then-#25 Jack Sock. And he might be able to work his way up to a seed by the time the even kicks off at the end of the month, which could give him a bit of an edge.

Of course, so much can still happen between now and the French. But if nothing else, Ramos has certainly shown he's one to pay attention to, and that even the favorites may have to look out if he's in their way.

Looking for the Turnaround

As is often the case at some smaller tournaments during the tennis season, this week's events give some players who've been a bit out of the spotlight recently a chance to remind us of their relevance. Some have been grinding their way back onto the scene for weeks and months, while others have had such a stroke of bad luck they've become more known for their losing streaks. But with their performances this week, they all have a chance to put their years back on track.

Alejandro Falla is one of those players who can put up a good fight here and there, threaten the big stars from time to time, but eventually doesn't make much of a mark. In 2010, remember, he had a two-set lead on Roger Federer in his Wimbledon first round, but eventually fell in a bagel in the fifth. This year he beat John Isner at the All England Club, but was winless in Tour main draws after that. He came to Kuala Lumpur unseeded, having dropped eleven ranking spots in the past week, but after his opening round win over Rajeev Ram, he might have brought some confidence back to his game. He'll next meet Alexandr Dolgopolov, seeded fourth but admittedly spotty all year, so the Colombian has a chance to pull off an upset, and possibly put him on a more consistent upswing.

Albert Ramos has arguably made a bigger statement at various moments this year. He has yet to win a title, but made the Casablanca final back in April. With wins this year over Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet and Fernando Verdasco, you know he can hold his own, but he's barely won a handful of matches since Rome. He had an easy first round in Malaysia, needing just an hour to dispatch qualifier Julian Knowle, and will certainly have a tougher match against third seeded Kei Nishikori next. But if Ramos can raise his game and harness the strength we saw earlier in the season, he might just get the upset.

A little more is at stake for former world #3 Nikolay Davydenko. Possibly nearing the end of his career, the veteran Russian has struggled to come back from injury that ended a streak of huge wins over Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal nearly three years ago. But he's not giving up quite yet -- he's made three semis this year, most recently last week in Metz and opened his Kuala Lumpur campaign with a straight-set win over lucky loser Sanam Singh. He escaped a meeting with a seed in his next round -- Denis Istomin took care of Pablo Andujar for him -- but if he's going to make a serious push to get back into the sport's elite, he'll have to take advantage of the the road that's opened up for him here.

Over in Bangkok some higher profile names are trying to get back in the conversation. Fernando Verdasco has made big strides already this year -- having fallen to #27 in the world on the heels of a weak 2011, he made his way to the final in Acapulco, put together a solid clay court season, and even stunned 2010 Madrid champ Rafael Nadal on the weird blue clay in Spain. He hasn't beaten anyone in the top twenty since then, though, and has slid a few spots back down the rankings. He was tested by Tatsuma Ito in his first round this week, dropping the opening set before rebounding for the win in three. A couple more wins in Asia could turn the dial squarely back in his favor.

Even more in need of momentum, though, is his next opponent. Donald Young was on a clear upswing this time last year, making the fourth round at the U.S. Open and following it up with a run to the final here. The 2012 season doesn't look much like that -- having started the year at #40 in the world, on the verge of becoming the next great American in the sport, Young then famously put together a string of seventeen straight losses from February through August. Though he did finally end the streak in Winston-Salem, he's still 3-22 on the year and now holds a ranking of #124 -- with 150 of his 460 total ranking points on the line in Thailand. He did manage a win over Yen-Hsun Lu in his first round Tuesday, but he's going to need to step up his game further -- another early loss won't make it easy for him to regroup.

Gael Monfils has proven to be a bit more resilient. The Frenchman had climbed to a career high #7 ranking a little over a year ago, but when a knee injury forced him to miss much of the spring and summer on Tour, he dropped out of the top forty. But he made a successful, dreadlock-free return in Metz last week, defeating Phillipp Kohlschreiber in the quarters and taking Andreas Seppi to the limit in the semis. He needed all three sets today too to take out Kevin Anderson, and with the win earned a spot against sixth-seeded Victor Troicki in the second round. It would be an on-paper upset, but Monfils seems to be playing above his ranking and could just "surprise" us with another deep run here.

There's a lot on the line for all these guys -- a good showing during the Asian swing could give them a lot of momentum going into next year, but a bad run could be devastating, for some more than others. Hopefully these athletes can make a statement this week, but if not, they'll need to regroup quickly if they want to prove they've got more fire left in them.

And So It Begins...

It's that time of year again -- the boys have officially made the shift to the clay season, and began their French Open warm-ups in earnest this week.

The Casablanca field was full of dirt specialists, with the top four seeds winning all of their titles on the surface. But that didn't mean the favorites all advanced without drama -- top seeded Florian Mayer lost his opener in a fairly one-sided straight setter to Jeremy Chardy while Alexandr Dolgopolov, playing well off the game that brought him to #13 in the world earlier this year, dropped just as quickly to Flavio Cipolla in his first match. In fact only two seeds made it to the quarterfinals -- defending champion Pablo Andujar and rising star Albert Ramos, who'd already beaten the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Richard Gasquet and Feliciano Lopez this year.

The two Spaniards eventually made their way to final on Sunday, though Ramos had a slightly easier trip -- though he lost serve a handful of times during the week, he never dropped a set. Andujar, on the other hand, was breadstick-ed in his middle quarterfinal set by qualifier Sergio Guttierrez-Ferrol before rebounding in the semis. But he took control early in his third career meeting with Ramos today, allowing his countryman just eight points on serve in the first set. The underdog raised his game in the second, though, but it was too late -- he managed to eke out one more point than Andujar, but eventually fell in the tiebreak, 7-5, and last year's champion kept his record against Ramos undefeated.

Things got a little more interesting in Houston where, even though most of the top seeds stayed deep into the draw, a couple big story-lines emerged. Thirty-three year old Michael Russell, ranked #136 in the world, dismissed top-seed Mardy Fish in the second round and kept his run going all the way to the semis. And fellow Americans Ryan Harrison, Sam Querrey and 2011 champ Ryan Sweeting, all put in some nice showings during the week, proving the country may not be quite as hard-up on the clay as so many think.

But in the end it was two of the players who've been on the hottest roll in recent month. John Isner, recent vanquisher of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, faced fifteen break points in his first three matches and never lost serve -- his win over Feliciano Lopez in the semis earned him the #1 ranking in the U.S. And Juan Monaco, who made a run to the Miami semis with wins over Gael Monfils, Andy Roddick and Fish, survived a test from Russell on Saturday, but came to his second final of the year the fresher man. Finally delivering the first break of serve to Isner in the opening set, he was the one to get the go-ahead in the third, winning the last three games of the two-and-a-half hour match and sealing the deal.

So with the first salvos of this year's clay court season now launched, it's now up to these guys to follow through. The winners, of course, have a bit of a leg up for now, but every player who showed he can put up a fight this week can turn himself into a force during the spring. And with the way things have shaken out so far this year, any one of them might make an even deeper impact than anyone expects.

The Opportunists

It's that time of the year when players begin making their move to the clay courts. And, as usual with some of these smaller events before the season really gets underway, some lesser known players will have their chance to make their marks.

At the Brazil Open, relocated this year to Sao Paulo after eleven years in Costa do Sauipe, there's no shortage of big names in the draw -- Nicolas Almagro and Juan Carlos Ferrero, fixtures during the Golden Swing year after year, both look to return to the winner's podium this year. But they'll be joined by a few others a little more under the radar.

Albert Ramos is just barely seeded here, but at #64 in the world he's at his best-ever ranking. Mostly a Challenger player, he scored his biggest career win last year against Marin Cilic in the first round of the Shanghai Masters. Before arriving in Sao Paulo he'd only won one match this year, upsetting Dmitry Tursunov in Doha, but this is the surface where he's most comfortable -- in the handful of years he's been pro, he's racked up a fifty percent win record on the dirt. He's no Rafa, clearly, but this could be his chance to put himself on the map. He scored a decisive win over Santiago Giraldo in his first round yesterday and will next face Igor Andreev, a man he beat in their only previous meeting last year. It wouldn't surprise me if he made an even bigger push this time around.

I might be expecting even bigger things from Argentina's Carlos Berlocq, a man possibly best known for nearly getting triple-bageled by Novak Djokovic last year at the U.S. Open. Still he's improving his game steadily, adding five Challenger trophies to his case last year -- all on clay -- and making his first Tour final last week at Viña del Mar. Now #42 in the world, he dropped just four games to Eric Prodon in their first round in Brazil. Next up is Potito Starace, himself a force on the surface. Berlocq has lost to the Italian the only two times they've played, but if he can get a hold of his opponent early, he should be able to live up to his fifth seed at least a little while longer.

The ladies in Bogota have an even bigger chance to shine this week. With no one in the top fifty entered in Colombia -- and seeds #2, #3, #4 and #7 already out -- there's plenty of opportunity for upsets and maybe no real favorites left in the draw.

Eighteen-year-old Timea Babos has already won nine ITF titles and took the Juniors' doubles crown at three Majors back in 2010. She is still a newbie on the main Tour, but after defeating third seed Romina Oprandi on Wednesday, she might have a little more confidence that she can hit with the big girls. Her next match against Yaroslava Shvedova, herself a Slam doubles champion and former top-thirty singles player, will be much harder, of course. But if she can pull of the win, I'd look for even bigger things from her this year.

But also keep an eye on unheralded top seed Marina Erakovic. The surprise finalist last year in Quebec City, she's only won one Tour match since then. Still, with wins over Tamira Paszek, Daniela Hantuchova and even Victoria Azarenka in the past twelve months, she can't be completely discounted. Now ranked #56 in the world, she faces beat Stefanie Voegele in her Bogota opener, but clearly the path will be rockier further down the road. If the Croat can get at least a few wins under her belt this week and back up her seeding a little bit she might get the bump she needs to make a big push later in the year.

Whether any of these guys actually does take advantage of the chances they've been given in South America is yet to be seen. But if they live up to their potential, any one could break through this week. And now's as good a time as any to announce to the world they've arrived.