History, Interrupted

2 hours & 47 minutes.
6 match points.

A fantastic bronze medal match. 👏#Tokyo2020 #Tennis #Olympics pic.twitter.com/JXOy0NrGpA

— ATP Tour (@atptour) July 31, 2021

Novak Djokovic had a lot riding on his performance at this year's Olympics.

After his stunning, and frankly brilliant, win at the French Open, tongues started wagging that a Grand Slam and an even rarer Golden Slam were potentially in sight. And when he picked up a third straight Wimbledon title earlier this month, the countdown began in earnest -- just thirteen more match wins, and the #GOAT 🐐 contender would do what no man had ever before.

But, sadly, it was not to be.

Though Djokovic looked characteristically unstoppable in his early rounds in Tokyo this week, he ran into a surprising stumbling block in Friday's semi against Alexander Zverev. Down a set and a break, the German rallied to win eight straight games and stunned Nole for only his third win against the world #1, and his first since 2018.

And after losing the bronze medal match today against Pablo Carreño Busta, the man whose only previous win against Djokovic came thanks to a bizarre default at last year's U.S. Open, and subsequently pulling out of mixed doubles, Novak walked away from the Olympics without any hardware, an outcome I don't think anyone would have predicted a week ago.

It's the second time he's lost the consolation round at the Games -- in London 2012, he fell to Juan Martin Del Potro after losing to eventual gold medalist Andy Murray in the semis -- and one of the very few times he's lost two matches in a row. And it leaves Steffi Graf's legacy as the only person ever to win the Golden Slam in tact at least until 2024.

Of course, this is far from the last we'll hear from Djokovic, and he has plenty of opportunity to still make history this year. While he did point to the injuries he's been dealing with, he's got a month to recover before the U.S. Open, where he'll still vie to become the first man since Rod Laver to win every Major in the same calendar year. And that's no small feat.

And, who knows? Maybe now some of the pressure has been lifted form his shoulders he'll hit the courts again even stronger. After all, we've seen so clearly these last few months how much that can weigh on elite athletes, and with even a little of it taken away now, there's no reason to expect him to pick things up where he left off.

There's still a lot of history for Djokovic to make, and this may be just a little break along the way.

Elsewhere in Tokyo...

While all the Olympic tennis attention may have been on Djokovic, let's take a moment to shout out Carreño Busta who beat not just the world #1 on his way to the bronze medal, but also took out world #2 Daniil Medvedev in the quarters. He may not have won the biggest prize, but to him it's just about as good as gold.

Still that match, between Zverev and Russia's Karen Khachanov will be contested tomorrow, and while the fourth seed may be the heavy on-paper favorite, you can't count out an upset here too. Khachanov won the pair's last two meetings, albeit the most recent two yeas ago, and has notched victories over PCB, Diego Schwartzman and Ugo Humbert already this week. And given how topsy-turvy the draws have been, you never can tell what's going to happen here.

After all, who would have guessed Belinda Bencic, who'd racked up a mediocre 17-14 record so far this year, would walk away with the ladies' gold medal in Tokyo? But the world #12, who I thought for sure would drop her opener against the talented but unseeded Jessica Pegula, not only persevered, but went on to beat both of this year's Roland Garros finalists, giant-killer Elena Rybakina, and, in today's gold medal match, Marketa Vondrousova, who'd backed up her own stunning upset of Naomi Osaka by taking out eventual bronze medalist Elina Svitolina in the semis.

It's certainly been an Olympics we'd never expected in so many ways, and with so much history -- not to mention patriotic pride -- on the line, that should be no surprise. But it's going to be three years before they get a chance to play the Games again, so here's hoping they're able to keep bringing the same fire again well before then.

My Dream Team

And so, it's official.

Tokyo and the IOC announced today that the 2020 Summer Olympics will be postponed, likely not happening until next year.

See you in 2021 !
🤷🏻‍♂️🥇💥🇯🇵 #olympics #greatmemories #goldmedal #seeyou #2021 #stayhome #staysafe pic.twitter.com/WV4cM1nSBt

— Stanislas Wawrinka (@stanwawrinka) March 24, 2020

It's not a surprising move, given all the other cancellations we've already seen -- not to mention the fact that Japan was smack dab in the middle of the coronavirus crisis at the outset.

Still it throws yet another wrench into what's already been a tumultuous season for tennis, and how the Games are ultimately scheduled brings up a lot of questions for the sport, as Jon Wertheim lays out so well in this Sports Illustrated piece. After all, officials aren't planning according to the tennis calendar -- as much as I'd like to believe that this sport is the one around which all others revolve, they've got to plan for everyone participating, athletes and otherwise, and there's no guarantee that the same weeks between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open will work next year.

But all those issues aside, one opportunity the delay does provide is that players not quite in the running to make the team this year can put their nose to the grindstone and qualify in 2021 -- that, of course, assumes they have a chance to put their nose to the grindstone. So today I'm going to wildly speculate about a couple of people I'd like to see play in some sixteen months time -- and since I'm in New York, I'll focus on the home team.

Let's start with the men -- John Isner currently sits atop the Americans' singles rankings, and while he did make the quarters in London, he skipped the Rio Games in favor of Atlanta and was already leaning toward sitting out this one too. Still there are a host of other men who could fill his shoes. Taylor Fritz and Reilly Opelka have the ranking points, and Tennys Sandgren, after his stellar run in Melbourne, has (had?) the momentum that could propel him to the top shortly once we get back in action, and you know my heart had early on been set on a star turn from Frances Tiafoe.

Unfortunately, some of the younger players way down the rankings who could be hitting their prime next year, may not get enough match play in time to boost their stature -- teenagers like Brandon Nakashima and Sebastian Korda have both had some nice results recently, but sitting sub-200 they may be a little too long of a shot.

By the way, let's not forget doubles. The Bryan Brothers, long a staple on the American roster, are supposed to retire after the U.S. Open, which should have allowed them to raise the flag for their country one more time. Will they change their minds, or do we need to look for some other options? I'd love to see Rajeev Ram take the lead -- the Australian Open champ has been playing a lot with Britain's Joe Salisbury, but could be a good anchor for a U.S. pair.

And then there are the ladies, who are also in danger of seeing some of their most stalwart representatives passing the age sweet spot for the sport -- Serena Williams will be 39 and Venus could be 41. Sure there's a cadre of young talent in the mix, from Sofia Kenin to Alison Riske to Coco Gauff, who'll finally be free from restrictions at the ripe old age of 17 next summer.

But there are a couple other women who could also make the cut. Outside the highest-ranked players, there's Jennifer Brady, who beat Ashleigh Barty in Brisbane and Elina Svitolina in Dubai, and Jessica Pegula, who reached the final in Auckland. Either one may storm back on the scene and surprise us all. But let's also keep an eye on 18-year-old Caty McNally -- she's had most of her success on the doubles court and is far overshadowed by her compatriots, but she's still got a win over Sam Stosur this year and took a set off Serena in New York in 2019. We always like to find a few star to focus our attention on, and there's no reason she can't be the next one.

Of course, like so many things these days, all this prognostication is like spitting in the wind. Who knows when we'll be back on the tennis courts and how even the best players will fare after such a long gap between match play? Still with so much real uncertainty out there, why not create a little of a more frivolous sort?

And as we all wait for the one day when it's actually safe to #ReopenAmerica, I'll send you all a virtual hug and hope to see you on the courts soon.

The Year of the Brit

It's been a pretty good couple months for UK athletes. First they played host to a successful Olympic Games, winning twenty-nine gold medals in the process. Golf's golden boy Rory McIlroy won the PGA Championship and returned to the #1 ranking in the sport. And, maybe most spectacularly, their tennis stars have finally come out of the shadows and taken the spotlight.

It started with perennial also-ran Andy Murray, claiming Gold at the All England Club less than a month after being denied the Wimbledon crown. A few weeks later he ended a seventy-six year Major drought with a stunning win at the U.S. Open.

He wasn't the only Brit making waves in New York, though. Eighteen-year-old Laura Robson might have been the Cinderella story of the tournament, stopping not one, but two Grand Slam champions on her way to the fourth round -- this after teaming with Murray to capture the mixed doubles Silver in London, too. She didn't stop there, however. At a then-high rank of #74 in the world, Robson took out three seeds on the way to her first Tour final in Guangzhou, ultimately losing a hard-fought battle to Su-Wei Hsieh, but chopping another fourteen spots from her ranking.

But perhaps the greatest breakthrough came this past weekend. While Murray lost a tight final to Novak Djokovic in Shanghai, and Robson was ousted in her Osaka third round, often overlooked Heather Watson was making her own move in Japan. Just twenty herself, her previous best performance this year might have come when she took a set off Maria Sharapova in Tokyo -- the only top-thirty player she's ever beaten was Lucie Safarova back in Miami -- but she didn't let her inexperience stop her last week. After defeating sixth-seeded Anabel Medina Garrigues in the second round, she sailed until reaching the championship match, stumbling a little against fellow final first-timer Kai-Chen Chang, but finally winning her first trophy in the more than three-hour match.

It wasn't a huge title -- only one player ranked higher than #20 was in the draw -- but it was enough to push Watson into the top fifty as of this week's standings. It was also the first Tour title won by a British woman in twenty-four years, a feat that might match the more headline-grabbing accomplishments of her compatriots. And as she joins the ranks of the many Brits making breakthroughs this year, she might just be ushering in a new era of athleticism in the sport, changing the face of the top ranks in the years to come.

The Missing Link

We knew that by the end of today's Gold medal match we would make history -- either world #1 Roger Federer would walk away with the elusive Golden Slam, or Britain's son Andy Murray would finally rise to the level his country has been expecting from him since he burst on the scene some four years ago. Chances to grab Olympic Gold don't come around often, and for two of the most decorated players in the sport winning this match would raise either to a most rarefied strata, and hopes for a fierce battle on Sunday ran high.

Roger, with seven titles at the All England Club already, was the clear favorite against the man who'd never beaten him in a best-of-three match, much less at Wimbledon. But after Federer's record breaking win over eventual Bronze medalist Juan Martin Del Potro in the semis, it was the Scot who came to this game more rested. The fact that the crowd was so clearly on his side might have helped too.

But I don't know that anyone would have predicted such a one-sided performance as the one we got today.

Murray, whose performance in his fourth career Slam final last month was easily his best so far, seemed to finally have taken a lesson from that defeat. He struggled to hold serve in his first game, but broke not long after and closed out the set in just over a half hour. He took an early lead in the second, built a shocking 5-0 lead and before you knew it was up two sets. Roger held a little tougher in the third, but still couldn't make a dent on his opponent's serve -- he won just a single point when receiving. On the court he's excelled on for the better part of a decade, Roger Federer had suffered his first straight-set loss since 2002 and was denied the one prize still missing from his trophy case. And after dominating all afternoon, Murray had finally given Great Britain the champion they've longed for.

Importantly, Sunday's performance from Murray finally proved he can play with the big boys. Yes, his first five matches in London were only three sets, but solid wins over Roger, Beijing Bronze medalist Novak Djokovic in the semis and even Stanislas Wawrinka in his opener remind us of the talent that's earned him an impressive eight Masters titles. Murray's Olympic Gold gives him that rare honor most of the sport's greats have never achieved, and as he gets ready to make another go for that first Grand Slam in less than a month, he may never have been in a better position.

For Roger, on the other hand, his failure to complete the medal run leaves him one accomplishment short of uber-rival Rafael Nadal, who won Gold in Beijing -- and with four years to go before Rio, the almost thirty-one year old may not have another opportunity to catch up. We know better, of course, than to count him out for good -- after all chasing the dream is what drives all great champions.

And both these men certainly have more to aspire to.

Golden Domination

We knew that by the end of today's Gold medal match we would make history -- either world #2 Maria Sharapova or Wimbledon champion Serena Williams would walk away with the elusive Golden Slam, winning each of the Majors and the championship medal at the Olympics. It's a rare honor only three people have achieved before and given the legacy both have created over the last ten-plus years, it's hard to choose two women more deserving of the prize.

But I don't know that anyone would have predicted such a one-sided performance as the one we got today.

The match took just over an hour, the scoreline reading 6-0, 6-1 in favor of the American. Sharapova didn't get on the board until the tenth game of the match, won fewer than half of the total points and managed only six winners in total -- one-fourth the number Serena scored. It was Williams' biggest win over the recent world #1 -- since that stunning loss to the Russian in the 2004 Wimbledon final, she's only lost once to Sharapova, and in her wins has ceded fewer and fewer games as time passed.

Serena's victory Saturday was more than the story of just one match, though -- it was the culmination of a season in which she's time and time again dominated the best women in the sport. This week alone, she easily ousted a couple former #1s -- Jelena Jankovic in her opener and Caroline Wozniacki in the quarters -- a two-time Major finalist and the current top-ranked player. In her first five matches in London she only dropped serve once, fired off thirty-seven aces and lost just sixteen games. Considering the quality of her opponent in the final and how much was on the line, her showing today was arguably even more impressive.

But the thirty-year-old's streak has been going strong for quite some time longer. Since she returned to the game post-injury last June, she's beaten thirteen top ten players, eleven of them in straight sets. She's only lost three times in 2012, with two of those defeats coming at the hands of players who really just caught her off guard. Against the best, Serena seems to always be on her game these days -- even more so than before her injury. She may stumble a bit, but she always seems to pull out the big guns when history is on the line. And the way she continues to play, it looks like there will be more for her to make in the coming seasons.

Williams' win today makes her the second woman, after Steffi Graf, to complete the Golden Slam. With Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka, who exhibited a slightly more muted domination of Russia's Maria Kirilenko in the earlier Bronze medal match, occupying the rest of the podium, you could argue that the best of women's tennis was certainly represented at the Summer Games this year. But while no one's efforts in London should be discounted, it sure seems like that top spot in London reaches just a bit higher than all the others.

Things Are Getting Good...

The rain, as it often does, tried its best to disrupt the schedule at the All England Club the last few days, but as Tuesday's action wrapped up we were ultimately left with sixteen men and sixteen women, all of whom still have a good shot at ultimately bringing home Olympic Gold. There have been upsets, of course, but with even the favorites facing off against some big stars from the start, you know the players who've lasted have earned it.

Perhaps the top half of the men's draw has the fewest surprises, with world #35 Denis Istomin the lone unseeded player to survive this far. World #1 Roger Federer had a bit of a hiccup in his first round, but has been on point the last few days as he looks to complete his Golden Slam, and largely underrated David Ferrer has sailed fairly easily though his first two matches -- he didn't even allow a break opportunity today against Slovenia's Blaz Kavcic. But perhaps the player to watch most carefully in this section of the draw is Argentina's Juan Martin Del Potro. He might have had the toughest second round match-up against Italy's Andreas Seppi -- the man who nearly beat Novak Djokovic in the Roland Garros fourth round -- but performed some of his best ball Monday to make the sweet sixteen in his first Summer Games.

There are a few more unexpected names in the bottom half of the bracket. Novak Djokovic also stumbled early, losing his first set after his tiebreak with Fabio Fognini was halted at seven-all, but his performance today against Andy Roddick reminded us that the world #2 is far from a nonentity at this event. And Wimbledon runner-up Andy Murray hasn't dropped serve in his first two matches and pulled off a one-sided victory in his opener over Stanislas Wawrinka, a man who previously held a solid 4-6 record against the Scot. There are also some veterans pulling off big wins in this section -- Lleyton Hewitt, Feliciano Lopez and Marcos Baghdatis all had to pull off upsets to make the third round -- but it might be worth keeping an eye on the real underdog in the bunch. Belgium's Steve Darcis, who pulled off the first shocker of the Games against Tomas Berdych on Saturday, backed it up with a win over Santiago Giraldo yesterday. He'll face clay-court specialist Nicolas Almagro next, and though he'll be the clear underdog, he might just be able to take the Spaniard by surprise.

There have actually been fewer seeds falling in the ladies' draw, but even when you account for the surprises the sixteen women remaining are some of the best of the bunch. Three in the top half have won at least one Grand Slam title and two more have made the finals. Every one of them has spent some time in the top ten. Top seeded Victoria Azarenka is the on-paper favorite, but Serena and even Venus Williams might still be favored over her. Still I'll be watching Angelique Kerber whose rise up the rankings the last twelve months is nothing to be overlooked. The German, playing her first Olympic games, has only lost three games so far in London, and facing off against Venus on Wednesday, she might be out to avenge her doubles loss from earlier today. Even with two titles on the year and having made at least the quarters in three of the last four Majors, she still has farther to rise and this could be her perfect opportunity to do so.

There are even more Major winners in the bottom half of the bracket, and while a couple of them haven't tasted big victories for a long time, that shouldn't take anything away from their performances so far. Ana Ivanovic could have folded early against rising American star Christina McHale in her opener, but came through in straights. Kim Clijsters, who's had some solid performances on grass since coming back from her latest set of injuries, handily dismissed both of her early opponents -- though, admittedly, she was spared having to face fifth seed Sam Stosur. And Maria Sharapova, whose trophy in Paris ended a long losing streak at the Majors, has been similarly strong as she goes for her own Golden Slam. But a more under-the-radar player might be the one to surprise us all. Maria Kirilenko put up an amazing fight as the surprise quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, and with her next opponent Julia Goerges eliminating the woman who devastatingly beat her a month ago, her prospects to advance have greatly improved.

Of course some of these players' have much better chances than others to keep their momentum going, but the draws sure have shaken out so that they each have some interesting opportunities. And if their level of play so far in London is any indication, things are only going to get better from here.

London 2012: Draw Analysis

I realize the Olympics aren't technically a Grand Slam, but with most of the top tennis players in the world making the quick turnaround to head back to Wimbledon and play for their countries, it sure feels like they're just as important. It might be a smaller field, but the requirements to make it there might be even be a little stricter. And for the players who finally get the honor of wearing Gold, they'll know they'll have earned it.

The Men First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

The Women First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

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The Men

First Quarter

Roger Federer comes back to the All England Club fresh off a historic win here and setting another record in his career. He's clearly the favorite here, but he'll have to bring his A-game from the start -- his first opponent is Colombia's Alejandro Falla, just a shade of his highest ranking and a man who once held a two-set and a break lead over the great Federer at this very venue. The early rounds at the Olympics are best-of-three matches, so the Swiss can't afford any slow starts. And it doesn't get any easier for him -- Julien Benneteau, who got off to the same start against Federer this year at Wimbledon, looms as a potential second round opponent.

Roger's not the only one subject to rematches in this quarter. Seventh seed Janko Tipsarevic faces off against veteran David Nalbandian for the fourth time this year -- the Serb's won the past two meetings, but the underdog could easily put up a big fight. And John Isner opens against grass-court specialist Olivier Rochus, whom he met on the way to his first Newport title last year. The Belgian has fallen a bit down the rankings since his place at the Summer Games was secured, but he could put up a bigger battle than anyone expects.

There are of course a few dark horses in this section of the bracket. Former top-ten player Mikhail Youzhny is unseeded in London, and could give Benneteau a problem early. And Fernando Verdasco, who's been improving his game this year in fits and starts might catch a couple on-paper favorites off guard. But at the end of the day, you have to think the strong will survive here.

Who'll survive? Odds are on Federer to carry his momentum forward as he looks to complete the Golden Slam. But I'd love to see Isner put up a fight for that semifinal spot.

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Second Quarter

Beijing Bronze medalist Novak Djokovic is the only man in the field who's ever tasted Olympic singles glory, but he's been a little quieter than he was at this point last year. Yes, he's only a handful of points behind Federer in the rankings and has fallen short of the semis just one time this year -- he lost in the Madrid quarters to eighth-ranked Janko Tipsarevic -- but it sure seems like he's lost some of his luster. He's got a tough draw to deal with too -- Atlanta and Eastbourne champ Andy Roddick is once again playing championship-quality tennis, and is slated to meet Nole in the second round. And Queen's Club and Umag champion Marin Cilic seems to be on the upswing himself recently -- he could play the Serb in the third round.

There are plenty of other threats out there too. Wimbledon semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga kicks off against Gstaad champion Thomaz Bellucci. The Brazilian is less comfortable on the grass, having only played ten matches on the surface in total, but he's having a comeback year and shouldn't be counted out. Is Tsonga makes it through, he'll likely meet big-serving Milos Raonic next, and brand-new top ten player Juan Monaco is lurking a round later. There's certainly no breathing room for the favorites here.

And there's opportunity for the Cinderellas too -- veteran Lleyton Hewitt and admittedly spotty Jurgen Melzer could pose threats to their early opponents. And if the top-ranked players are put to the test, there may be a chance for either of them to make a break for it

Who'll survive? It's dangerous to count Djokovic out, even with all the trouble his opponents can get into. But it might be someone else's chance to work the draw to his advantage, and I'm going with Tsonga for this quarter.

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Third Quarter

Thanks to a shocking withdrawal by 2008 Gold medalist Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray was given the third seed at the Games, but he might be able to do even better than that. After a solid showing in the Wimbledon finals, his prospects at the big events have greatly improved. He too faces danger early -- world #26 Stanislas Wawrinka, who holds a decent 4-6 record against the Scot will try to send him home off the bat -- but it might be smooth sailing after that.

The next highest seed in the quarter is Tomas Berdych, himself a finalist at the All England Club once, but one who lost his opener there this year. He's had a couple nice runs this year, beating Murray in Monte Carlo and Juan Martin Del Potro in Madrid, and shouldn't have much trouble against Belgium's Steve Darcis in his opener. But he's been surprised a few times too, so may not be as much of a favorite as his seed suggests.

This quarter might instead be one that allows new talent to shine. Young Ryan Harrison is just off a career-high rank and is playing his first Olympic Games. A semifinalist in Newport, he might have the edge over clay-court specialist Santiago Giraldo in his opener. And Carlos Berlocq, slowly climbing the rankings himself, could have a chance to shine against Alex Bogomolov Jr., who's won just one match since late May. A nice run here for the Argentine could turn him into quite a force in the South American tennis world.

Who'll survive? The stars have really aligned for Murray in this quarter. I wouldn't be surprised to see him sail after his first round.

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Fourth Quarter

Spain's David Ferrer is the surprise top seed for his country in London, and with five titles already on the year -- most recently in Bastad and on the grass of Den Bosch -- he's more than established he's a force on any surface. He'll likely face a test in his second round though when he meets world #23 Phillip Kohlschreiber -- the German beat Nadal in Halle, made the quarters at Wimbledon and earlier today made the semis in Kitzbuhel. It's been a full schedule for him, and as long as he's not exhausted, he could continue to put up a fight.

Eighth-seeded Juan Martin Del Potro is the biggest on-paper threat to Ferrer in this quarter, but the six-foot-six Argentine rolled over surprisingly easily to him in the Wimbledon fourth round. He had been having a pretty good year 'til then, though, and will hopefully be able to handle an opening round against Ivan Dodig easily. If confidence is on his side he could be dangerous later in the draw.

There are also some interesting first rounds outside the top seeds in this quarter. Bernard Tomic, on a bit of a downward spiral -- he hasn't won more than two matches at an event since April -- faces off against world #18 Kei Nishikori. The quarterfinalist in Atlanta and Newport has nevertheless never performed well on grass -- it's the only surface on which he has a losing record -- and could be taken by the one-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist. And former third-ranked Nikolay Davydenko has been tumbling in recent months, but if he can get an early break on Radek Stepanek in his opener, it might bode well for his prospects.

Who'll survive? This one is really a toss-up, and though Ferrer has proven he can win on the lawns, there's plenty of opportunity for someone else too. Let's give this one to Grigor Dimitrov, a semifinalist at three of his last four events. Just for the heck of it.

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The Women

First Quarter

The ladies' draw is full of opportunities for upsets, and strangely not because of how inconsistent the women have been. In fact with a whole slew of players who've been delivering week after week, success will not come at the expense of the weak but on the talent of the strong.

Top seed Victoria Azarenka may have reclaimed her #1 ranking, but she might be the most vulnerable of the big guns. After her super start to the year, she hasn't won a title since Indian Wells, but gets a bit of a break against young Irina-Camelia Begu in her opener -- the Romanian may be on the rise, but she hasn't beaten a top-tier player all year and lost both her meetings with Vika handily. More sparks may fly elsewhere in the draw.

Polona Hercog is coming off her second career title in Bastad and is actually now ranked higher than her first-round opponent, veteran Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. And Den Bosch winner Nadia Petrova has the potential to put on a great show against world #25 and 2008 Wimbledon semifinalist Jie Zheng in her opener.

The seeds aren't necessarily safe either. French Open finalist Sara Errani will open against five time Wimbledon champ Venus Williams, and world #7 Angelique Kerber, fresh off a run to the semis at the All England Club, faces off against last year's surprise fourth-rounder Petra Cetkovska to start. There are a lot of strong ladies in this quarter, and if they don't work each other to the bone, whoever survives could be a real contender for Gold.

Who'll survive? Yes, Vika is the favorite, but Kerber might be carrying the better momentum on this surface. I wouldn't mind seeing her with a medal at the end of the week.

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Second Quarter

This is the highest Aggie Radwanska has ever been ranked at an event, and after her inspiring performance in the Wimbledon final she'll want to live up to the potential we now know she has. Unfortunately for her she'll meet a solid world #24 Julia Goerges to start her Olympic run -- the Pole has won both of the pair's previous meetings, never dropping a set, but it could nevertheless be a good fight early on in the draw. And if she survives, she should face rising U.S. star Varvara Lepchenko and maybe put together a rematch with Maria Kirilenko in the third. The Russian put up a surprising battle in their Wimbledon quarter, and she might be out for revenge.

Petra Kvitova, the 2011 champ at the All England Club, may not have a much easier beginning -- in her opener she'll meet Kateryna Bondarenko, a woman who's won their last two matches, both times while ranked lower than the Czech. KBond has been dealing with injuries the last several months, so she's not playing her best, but the one-time U.S. Open quarterfinalist may have a few surprises left in her.

This could be a quarter where some underdogs get a chance to shine too. Sorana Cirstea, trying to recapture the momentum that once brought her to #23 in the world, has a good chance to get some quick blows in against Flavia Pennetta. And Tsvetana Pironkova may face Carslbad champion Dominika Cibulkova in her first round, but the Bulgarian has consistently performed well on the grass of Wimbledon and can't be counted out of pulling off an upset.

Who'll survive? In my Wimbledon draw analysis I said it'd be Aggie or Kirilenko coming out of their quarter. I stand by that call this time around.

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Third Quarter

Third seeded Maria Sharapova is playing her first Olympic Games, and the pressure is on her to lead a Russian team who swept the medals in Beijing. While her opening round against an on-the-decline Shahar Peer may not pose many problems, there are more threats in her quarter. Sabine Lisicki, who avenged a semifinal loss last year at Wimbledon with a round of sixteen win this time around, could force a third-round meeting in London. Then again, so could quickly-rising Yaroslava Shvedova, she of the Golden Set. It certainly won't be an easy road for the recent #1.

Things are no better in the top half of the quarter, either. World #5 Sam Stosur is the second highest ranked player here, but this has never been her best surface. She should be able to get past Carla Suarez Navarro in her opener, but either grass court specialist Roberta Vinci or four-time Major winner Kim Clijsters will be waiting for her a round later. And Ana Ivanovic, trying to sustain her recent momentum, could pose a threat later in the draw -- she'll have to get past Christina McHale first, though, and the young American seems to be making good on all the expectations that have been thrust on her for years.

Who'll survive? This is a hard one, too, and with so many strong athletes in the quarter. Sharapova is playing strong ball these days, but Shvedova seems to have all the momentum on her side.

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Fourth Quarter

Serena Williams, who won Gold in the Beijing doubles tournament, is looking to capture her first singles medal in London, and with a two-title win streak in her pocket chances are she'll be a favorite to do so. She could have a struggle early against former-#1 Jelena Jankovic, who actually won their last meeting in Rome. But that was more than two years ago, and the Serb hasn't played at that level in a long time. Serena's second round might actually be a little tougher -- either Mona Barthel or Aggie's younger sister Urszula Radwanska could put up a nice fight. They're both young and on-the-rise, and Williams is unlikely to be familiar with either of their games, and that might -- just might -- catch her a little off guard.

Caroline Wozniacki is the other top seed in this quarter, but her prospects aren't much better than they've been at other events recently. She should survive her opener against young Brit Anne Keothavong, and even a second round versus either veteran Anabel Medina Garrigues or back-on-track Yanina Wickmayer. But unseeded Tamira Paszek, who beat her in their Wimbledon first round could easily make her way back to a rematch -- the Austrian is slated to meet either Na Li or recovering Daniela Hantuchova in the second round, neither of which is as big a threat on this surface as her ranking suggests.

Who'll survive? Momentum, experience, and a whole lot of other factors are on Serena's side. I don't see this quarter going any other way.

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There may be three technical winners at the Olympics, but ultimately all that matters is whether you can hang that golden medal around your neck, and even the most decorated players in the field have yet to achieve that feat. It could be a long road to that winners' podium, but the reward would be well worth it -- and the ones who make it there will have certainly proven they deserve it.

Blogcast: Playing for Gold

The world's best tennis players head back to the All England Club of Wimbledon with a little more than a trophy on the line.

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Goodbye, Elena

I know I'm not the only one who's sad that Elena Dementieva is retiring.

While I might have been a little late on the news, the twitterverse virtually exploded around noon today, when the current world #9 announced she'd just played her last professional match at the WTA Championships' against another veteran Francesca Schiavone. For a player casual tennis fans might never have heard of -- a former co-worker used to call her "Dementia" -- suddenly the Russian star was a trending topic, a real talk of the town. Of the globe, really.



Long my favorite player on the women's Tour, in recent years Dementieva has become known as the best athlete without a Grand Slam title -- she made the finals in Roland Garros and New York in 2004 and the semis of all the Majors another six seven times. But that's not to say she hasn't accomplished much in her twelve-plus year career. She cracked the top twenty in 2000 after a trip to the final four at the U.S. Open and has been a staple in the top ten for the better part of the decade. An instrumental part of the Russian Fed Cup team, she became the most consistent force from a country that has only emerged on the tennis scene in the last ten years. Though she counts Olympic gold in Beijing as the biggest accomplishment among her sixteen titles, she's had some unbelievably memorable matches -- I still count that '09 semi against Serena Williams as the savior of women's tennis -- that netted her nothing but a few minutes of coverage on Sports Center.

Yet Dementieva always showed up on court ready to give 150% -- win or lose, she put up a fight in every match. And it was so often a fight. With one of the weakest serves on the Tour, Elena developed one of the best return games out there and could break the toughest opponents several times in a match just to stay on serve. Despite that apparent weakness, over her career she racked up an impressive 575-271 record and notched big wins over some of the winningest champions around. And she certainly didn't allow herself to float off into oblivion before leaving the game -- having won two titles and made two more finals this year, she qualified for the year-end WTA championships for the eighth consecutive time.

And while she may have ruffled a few feathers here and there, the friends she made on Tour far outnumbered the foes. The outpouring of sentiment, from journalists, fans, seasoned vets and up-and-comers alike, shows just what a class act Elena Dementieva really is.



And while I know she will be sorely missed on Tour, I have no doubt that we're all better because of her.