Déjà vu

There was something very familiar about championship Sunday this weekend in Rome, wasn't there? Like we'd seen these two champions sharing the stage somewhere before.

But the return to the winner's podium for Iga Swiatek and Rafael Nadal was far from a sure thing, and the fight they showed to get there proves they both know how to bring their best when it really counts.

Saving MPs in R3 🤝 Winning the #IBI21 title

🏆 @iga_swiatek | @RafaelNadal 🏆 pic.twitter.com/CQayiaS9Km

— wta (@WTA) May 16, 2021

The Ladies

Let's start with the ladies, whose clay court season has given us a varried array of champions all pulling off big wins. But with perennial favorite Simona Halep struggling with injury, and hardcourt powerhouse Naomi Osaka still struggling to get her footing on the dirt, it's been Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka that have been most consistent, with the two splitting the last two big titles on the surface. But the former pulled out of Rome with an arm injury and the latter was stunned by Coco Gauff in the third round, allowing last year's breakout star Iga Swiatek a pass to the final.

That's not to say the 19-year-old Pole had an easy time of it this week. Swiatek, who crashed out of Madrid just last week in a battle of two women who'd both won their last seven matches at Roland Garros, had to fend off two match points against Barbora Krejcikova, a very talented doubles player whose really upping her solo game too the last few months. Krejcikova had already beaten French Open runner-up Sofia Kenin, and came a whisker away from doing it to Swiatek too before the fifteenth seed was able to rally.

Meanwhile in the bottom half of the draw, where one favorite after another was summarily eliminated, it was Karolina Pliskova who fought through to her third straight Rome final -- she won the title back in 2019. But Swiatek was way too much for her to handle on Sunday. The on-paper underdog didn't drop a game in the 46-minute match, barely even lost a point, double-bagelling her opponent in the most lopsided Premier-level final since 1988.

The win, the third of Swiatek's still-nascent career, is her first truly big statement of the season -- she picked up a title in Adelaide back in February -- and should push her into the top ten for the first time in her career -- an honor that seems a long time coming thanks to the revised ranking system. But more importantly it should put her back on track as she looks to defend her big title in Paris. And if she plays at the level she did today, she has a pretty good shot at doing it.

The Men

Things were a little less cut and dry in the men's final, but that's what you'd expect when you have the two best clay court players, arguably of all time, facing off in their 57^th career meeting with another Masters title on the line. But despite their years-long dominance, here too, the road to the final was not easy for either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal.

The top seed and world #1 has proved himself surprisingly fallible in recent months. After his record ninth trophy at the Australian Open, he lay a little low, skipping Miami and not surfacing again until Monte Carlo, where he was stunned by Dan Evans in the third round. A week later in his homeland event in Belgrade, he lost to 2021 standout Aslan Karatsev, and he then pulled out of Madrid.

Returning to Rome to defend his title he played well early, but was caught off guard by Monte Carlo champ Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals, getting down a set and a break before rain suspended the match. He somehow found it in him to regroup on Saturday, get the win, and survive a nearly-three hour slugfest against Lorenzo Sonego -- who, you remember, beat him last year in Vienna -- in the semis. After more than five hours on court, he'd have to get right back to it on Sunday.

Nadal may have had an easier few days recently -- he avenged a loss to Madrid champ Alexander Zverev on Friday and saved all four break points he faced against Reilly Opelka in the semis -- but that doesn't mean he hasn't been tested. He's been surprisingly unprolific during his usually breezy clay court season, with losses not just to Zverev, but to Andrey Rublev too, and he even faced match points against Denis Shapovalov in the third round here, before rebounding.

But in spite of all the drama and hard work these two had already put in this week, they showed up to Sunday's final to give us more. What else should we expect? In their 29^th meeting with a title on the line, Djokovic came out swinging first, getting the early break before Rafa came barreling back. He captured the first set, but got in a bit of trouble when Nole took the second 6-1. It appeared his long Saturday had little effect on his game today and he was back to top shape. But Nadal was able to get a stave off a couple of threats early in the decider and broke deep in the third, holding on to capture the win and get within one match of even in their all-time head-to-head.

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So what will all this mean as we get ready for Paris? Well it certainly calms the nerves of any Rafa fans who was starting to get nervous. And it certainly bolsters the case for Swiatek to repeat her own breakout success. But there are a lot of other players in the wings ready to take the crowns themselves. And maybe this year, more than any in recent memory, there's a shot for a couple of them to do it.

Comeback Stories

It's been a long year-plus for everyone, and tennis players are no exception. Of course the struggles on court pale in comparison to what's been going on around the world, but it's easy to see that some who were riding high at the end of 2019 have been on shaky footing the last few months.

But some recent performances in Rome suggest things may swinging back in their favor.

Revenge in Rome!@RafaelNadal ends a run of three defeats to Zverev with a 6-3 6-4 victory in the Italian capital.#IBI21 pic.twitter.com/VYEfaXc3xM

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 14, 2021

I'll start with Karolina Pliskova who came into last season as #2 in the world. She'd picked up three titles in 2019 and kicked off the new year with another one in Brisbane, beating Naomi Osaka in the semis. But since then she's been pretty quiet, losing early at all the Slams, getting upset by Jessica Pegula (three times in a row!), Danielle Collins, and even then-world #292 Anastasia Gasanova.

She came to Rome the 9^th seed, and while she's been pretty consistent here -- she won the title in 2019 and made the final last year -- I wasn't putting too much stock in her. But she's been on point so far, beating veterans Anastasija Sevastova and Vera Zvonareva before today coming back from a set down to take out a resurgent Jelena Ostapenko, a former champion at Roland Garros. Back in the semis again, the pressure will be on, but she might just have her confidence back to keep going.

She'll have to get past another comeback kid to do it though. Veteran Petra Martic climbed to a career high of #14 in the world while I wasn't looking, thanks to a solid 2019 season where she won the title in Istanbul, made the semis in Stuttgart and the quarters at the French Open. This year has been a much different story, though -- she's got a 4-8 record, with five of those losses coming in first rounds, and she hadn't gotten a win yet on clay, arguably her best surface.

She's turning things around this week though -- after avenging her Yarra Valley loss to Shelby Rogers in her Rome opener, she took out Kiki Mladenkovic (who'd beaten Belinda Bencic) and Nadia Podoroska (who'd stunned Serena Williams) to set up a quarterfinal against Jessica Pegula (who'd shocked Naomi Osaka). Here too I didn't give her much of a shot -- Pegula may be ranked lower, but she's cleary been having the better year. But Martic demonstrated her edge on these courts, knocking out her opponent in straight sets and earning her the first Premier-level semi of her career. And in a battle with Pliskova, I really don't know who has the advantage.

And finally there's a case of, if not entirely a comeback, then certainly revenge. After all, Rafael Nadal is still #3 in the world and he did pick up a record 12^th title in Barcelona last month. But he's also shown he can be vulnerable on the surface he's dominated for the last sixteen years. He was stunned by Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo and notched a third straight loss to Alexander Zverev in Madrid. And just yesterday he was down a set and a break (plus two match points!) before sealing a win against Denis Shapovalov.

That had me worried when he faced off against Zverev for a second week in a row earlier today. But this time Rafa wrote a different story. The nine-time champion in Rome fought off all eight break points he faced in the second set and secured the win in just under two hours. He'll now face Reilly Opelka in the semis, and while the big serving American has been impressive himself this week, Nadal is 11-0 in this round at this venue. Of course that doesn't guarantee a win by any means, but I'm sure hoping he's found the game he seems to have been struggling with a bit this season.

When in Rome...

No matter how much has been said about it, it still feels weird that, at this point in the year, we're talking about the clay court season and the lead up to Roland Garros. And with only two weeks between the last two Slams of the year, we had to pack a lot of action into an exceedingly short time. But with the Rome Masters now in the books, and Hamburg and Strasbourg underway, we did get some indications of what we can expect when we finally make the trip over to Paris. And, as always, we're bound to be in for a couple surprises.

Let's start with the ladies, who actually got in a couple weeks play on the surface before the U.S. Open, both in Palermo and Prague, and at an event concurrent with New York in Istanbul. But it wasn't just those who'd been acclimated to the clay that shined this past week. Victoria Azarenka, who made a stunning run to the final in the Big Apple, got right back to work at the BNL Internazionali d'Italia, avenging a loss in Lexington to Venus Williams and shredding defending Aussie Open champ Sofia Kenin, oh-and-oh. And Yulia Putintseva, the somewhat surprising quarterfinalist in New York, got a second straight win over favorite Petra Martic in Rome and took out a recently meh Elena Rybakina before retiring in the quarters.

There were some other standouts too -- Marketa Vondrousova, one of last year's many surprises at Roland Garros, seemed to get her year back on track after what's been an unimpressive 4-8 record so far this year. A decisive quarterfinal win over Elina Svitolina, who was playing her first tournament since March, made that all-important statement as she looks to defend her French Open runner-up points. And Garbiñe Muguruza, who lost early at the U.S. Open, losing to Tsvetana Pironkova in the second round, battled through a tough draw, besting Sloane Stephens, Coco Gauff, Johanna Konta and Victoria Azarenka to make the semis.

Ultimately though, the final featured the top two seeds in the draw, with Simona Halep, who skipped the U.S. Open but took a title in Prague this summer and repaid her Melbourne loss to Muguruza on Sunday, taking on defending champion Karolina Pliskova, who, since opening the year with a title in Brisbane, has struggled to make the laters rounds of events. The title match didn't quite live up to potential, though, as Halep ran off with the first set in twenty minutes and an injured Pliskova retired after the third game in the second. It was the Romanian's twenty-second career title and her third in a row, giving her a win streak of fourteen straight matches. And as she looks to reclaim the title she won in Paris more than two years ago, she might just have established herself as the player to beat.

There is a new Queen in Rome! 👑 Congrats @Simona_Halep for such an amazing week! ✨ #IBI20 pic.twitter.com/VRUZNBvZy6

— Internazionali Bnl (@InteBNLdItalia) September 21, 2020

The men's side of things in Rome was no less dramatic and saw its own fair share of surprises emerge. I'll get to the "big" one (was it just one?) in a moment, but it's worth starting with some of the more under-the-radar players that made a splash this week. Denis Shapovalov, who came OHSOCLOSE to making the semis in New York, went a long way to prove not only that was no fluke, but that he can be a true force on clay too. After a test from Ugo Humbert, he went the distance again versus Grigor Dimitrov, withstanding three three-setters in a row during his semifinal run -- a pretty impressive show of endurance considering he played 22 sets at the Open.

Meanwhile Casper Ruud, a breakout star in the pre-lockdown portion of the season, continued his march higher with a win over former U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic and another against surprisingly consistent Matteo Berrettini, who he'd lost to in New York. It was his first Masters semifinal appearance, and his third trip to the final four this year. Not bad for a guy who kicked off the season outside the top fifty.

The real Cinderella, though, was former college star Dominik Koepfer, who made it through qualifiers with wins over Gilles Simon and Mikhail Kukushkin and then stunned Gael Monfils in the Frenchman's first match since a solid winning stretch in February. Koepfer made it all the way to the quarters and even took a set off Novak Djokovic before finally ending his run. It could bode well for where the young-ish German is heading from here.

Of course the shocker of the event came when two-time defending champion Rafael Nadal, going for his tenth title in Rome, fell in straight sets to Argentina's Diego Schwartzman in the quarters. It was the eighth seed's first win over Rafa in ten tries, and his first victory over any of the Big Three. He'd go on to the final, where he eventually lost a two break lead and the match to Djokovic, but what's by far the biggest win of his career could put him on a much different path than we'd expected when we make it to Paris.

The moment @DjokerNole won his 5th Rome crown and a record-breaking 36th Masters 1000 title! #IBI20 @TennisTV pic.twitter.com/h2UfV7EGRd

— Internazionali Bnl (@InteBNLdItalia) September 21, 2020

Of course, what Nole accomplished in Rome was in itself spectacular. The world #1, whose only loss this year came under the most unusual of circumstances, wasn't playing his best all week, had a few outbursts, and was tested by players who he should have beaten easily. But at the end of the day, he walked away with the trophy, a record 36^th at the Masters. Does his dominance, and Rafa's hiccup, signal a changing of the guard at Roland Garros? Not necessarily. Nadal will continue to be the player to beat at the French Open until he isn't, and one loss at his first event in seven months, should not be taken as an omen.

But we certainly have started to see the next generation start to step up -- whether by default or not -- and given the circumstances, this could be their best opportunity to rise to the challenge.

And with just six days to go before the final Major of the year, there's no better time to do it.

Serving Notice

We've seen a lot of new faces on the winners' blocks over the last few weeks. But with the French Open now just a week away, a couple players took their opportunity to make a real statement in Rome. And it might have been the perfect time to do it.

Carla Suarez Navarro has long been a threat on the clay courts, but it seems she's really only coming into her own now. After finally picking up her first career title last year, she's quietly sneaked into the top ten on the heels of a stellar run to the championship match in Miami. And this week in Italy she was equally impressive, taking out, in turn, Genie Bouchard, Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep on the way to her third final of the year. Not a bad showing as she looks to improve on her run to the quarterfinals in Paris last year.

But ultimately CSN ran into a slightly more immovable force in Maria Sharapova, who in a week will set out to defend her Roland Garros title. She'd been a little more quiet than usual this clay court season, losing her opener in Stuttgart and getting shocked in the Madrid semis by Svetlana Kuznetsova. But she made it through the Rome draw without losing a set, even against real threats like Victoria Azarenka and young Daria Gavrilova, who beat her just a few months ago on the American hard courts. She started off shaky Sunday though, letting the Spaniard get an early lead and even giving back a break in the second set -- but she was able to fight back, rolling through the decider and after more than two and a half hours finally sealed the win. It was her third title in Rome and her second of the season. But after so many close calls this year, this one really seems to put her back on the map.

The men's draw in Rome shook out a little more as you'd expect -- while there were certainly a couple upsets along the way, the top two seeds were the ones eventually showing down in Sunday's final. Roger Federer, who'd backed up his first red clay title in six years with a shocking loss to Nick Kyrgios in his Madrid opener, was quick to rebound. He easily took out both Tomas Berdych and compatriot Stan Wawrinka to make his fifth final of the year. With such dominating games against the sport's best it's not that long a shot to expect him to keep it up in Paris.

Of course there's one man who stands in his way. World #1 Novak Djokovic had taken it easy for most of this clay court season, skipping Madrid and smaller events after picking up a second trophy in Monte Carlo. He seemed a little rusty to start, though -- riding a seventeen match winning streak coming in to Rome, he dropped sets to both Nicolas Almagro and Thomaz Bellucci in his early rounds. He even survived a test against Kei Nishikori, the man who vanquished him in New York just last year. Against Federer in the final, though, he was at the top of his game -- he dropped just a handful of points on serve, fended off seven aces from his opponent and saved the only break point he faced. After just over an hour he'd dismissed the all-time great, putting him back just a game away from tying their all-time head-to-head. But, more importantly, with just a few days before he makes another go at capturing his very first French Open -- and becoming the third active player on the ATP to complete the career Grand Slam -- he may have cemented his place as the real favorite this time and set himself on a course to really change history.

There are only a few days left before the first shots are taken at Roland Garros this year, and both this weekend's champions and runners-up have shown they mean real business in Paris. The road ahead will certainly be full of challenges, but it seems all of them have proven they're more than up to the task.

And maybe this year they'll finally be able to overcome the biggest obstacles they've faced their entire careers.

Back in the Groove

As we come down to the wire for this year's French Open, plenty of top stars are on the courts in Rome this week to get in those last couple hits before heading off to the season's next Major. And more than a few are looking to make, surprisingly, their first big statements of the season.

After all, you can't help but notice that a couple of perennial favorites have been missing from the winners' stands this clay court season. But so far this week they seem to be making a pretty good effort to change that.

Victoria Azarenka may be somewhat excused from her relatively quiet year to date -- the former world #1 missed most of last season with injuries and took a pretty big tumble down the rankings as a result. Her comeback has been a little spotty -- she opened the year with a surprising loss to then-largely unheralded Karolina Pliskova in Brisbane, but did make the final in Doha and put up a big fight against Serena Williams last week in Madrid. Still unseeded in Italy she faced a potentially tough draw, but pulled off her third win of the year over good friend Caroline Wozniacki in the second round, her seventh top-twenty win this season -- more impressive now that she's barely within the top thirty herself. And if she gets past young Irina-Camelia Begu later today, there's no telling what that could do for her confidence.

Of course that win would set up a meeting against long-time rival Maria Sharapova, who's been struggling too of late. The defending Roland Garros champion lost opening rounds in both Miami and Stuttgart and was stunned by compatriot Svetalana Kuznetsova in Madrid -- the latter two, events she'd won last year. She's been solid so far in Rome, building a solid lead in her opener before Jarmila Gajdosova had to retire and then dismissing Bojana Jovanovski in straight sets today. And she could keep her streak going -- she's won her last three matches versus Vika, finally drawing even in the pair's head-to-head, and with super-nemesis Serena pulling out on Thursday, the road may be cleared for her to pick up another title on the dirt.

Roger Federer hasn't exactly been having a bad year, picking up a trio of titles so far, including his first on red clay since that history-making Grand Slam six years ago. Still he notched a second straight loss to Gael Monfils in Monte Carlo and in Madrid became the second top-ten upset of teenager Nick Kyrgios's career. Roger's rebounded in Rome, though -- he easily won a rematch of the Istanbul final against Pablo Cuevas in his opener and took out big-serving Kevin Anderson in two quick sets today. He has a tough road though -- if he wants to pick up hie first title in Italy, one of the few Masters he hasn't yet won, he could face the likes of Stan Wawrinka or Tomas Berdych, both of whom have already reached the quarters. And there's an even bigger threat in his half of the draw.

Six-time champion Rafael Nadal is looking to turn around the least-prolific season of his career since 2004, and seems better poised to do so than he has in a while. Despite picking up a title in Buenos Aires at the start of the clay court circuit, he's had some struggles at the bigger events, losing twice to Fabio Fognini on the surface dropping out in the semis on a court he once dominated in Monte Carlo. Last week in defense of his crown in Madrid, he was stunned by Andy Murray in the final. But perhaps he's back on track now -- he dropped just two games in his first round in Rome and today ended John Isner's streak of eighty-four straight service holds to reach the quarters. Next up for him, though, is Wawrinka, who famously beat him in last year's Australian Open final. They haven't faced off since, and on the dirt we should expect Rafa to thrive -- but the way he's played recently, every win seems like a major victory for him. And if he can survive this test, it could bode well for him over the next several weeks.

It's just about the last chance for all these guys to make a big stand before the French Open -- but thankfully for them it seems like they've each gotten their games back after a few missteps. And if they can keep their momentum going, we might get a chance to really see them shine in Paris.

No Pain, No Gain

Honestly, I don't know why I was worried.

Last week both Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic made their return to court in Rome after (admittedly short) injury time-outs. But while some players need a little time to get their groove back, the statements these two made were nothing short of emphatic.

Serena hadn't been out of contention long -- after a surprise loss in her Charleston opener, she pulled out of the quarterfinal in Madrid with a thigh injury. But there was no sign of that when she hit the courts in Italy -- she dropped less than five games in each of her first three rounds, only hiccupping once in her semifinal against Ana Ivanovic, who shockingly won their last meeting.

Meanwhile hometown heroine Sara Errani had put together her own impressive run in Rome. She'd falling out of the top ten in the last few weeks, but seemed resurgent this past week -- in her quarterfinal match against two-time Major winner Na Li, she put an end to a 0-6 losing record and then rolled over former world #1 Jelena Jankovic to make her biggest final of the year.

Unfortunately the Italian was dealing with her own injury issues in Sunday's final and Serena was able to pounce. She was up 5-3 in the first set when Errani took a medical break, and didn't lose a game once her opponent came back on court. It was the third title in Rome for the world #1 -- interestingly, a title she's only won in years she's also gone the distance at Roland Garros. Of course, one victory doesn't guarantee another, but the way she's played through the pain sure solidifies her as the favorite as she makes her way to Paris.

Things were a little more tricky on the men's side of things. Novak Djokovic was going after title #3 in Rome as well, but he'd been out of competition a few weeks longer. After losing to Roger Federer in the Monte Carlo semis, wrist heavily taped and serve and return severely hampered, he'd pulled out of Madrid entirely, and was a little rusty when he kicked off his Italian campaign. He lost his opening service game to Radek Stepanek and dropped sets to Phillipp Kohlschreiber, David Ferrer and Milos Raonic on his way to the final.

His opponent in the championship match had an even tougher time, though. Taken down a notch this season, Rafael Nadal seemed redeemed with his win in Madrid last week. But the seven-time titleist struggled in his defense. Somewhat cursed with a tough draw -- former world #6 Gilles Simon was his first round challenger -- he didn't have a straight-set victory until the semis, looking wholly out of sorts against Andy Murray in the quarters, before defeating upstart Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets.

But Nole got the upper hand again on Sunday. Having won every meeting between the two since last year's U.S. Open, he stayed tough after dropping the opening set and in an uncharacteristically break-filled match -- serve was lost ten times in total -- went on to win his third title of the year. It's still a far cry from the ultimate victory -- beating Rafa at Roland Garros which, let's not forget, has only happened once -- but with a quickly narrowing gap versus the world #1, it's certainly becoming more of a possibility.

There's always a little question mark over the heads of players -- even the heavy favorites -- who come back after an injury absence, but both this weekend's winners prove they're more than in contention for the big titles not far down the road. And a win by either would really put a big exclamation point, not only on their resumes, but on the entire season for this sport

Let This Serve as a Reminder

There's been a lot of drama on the clay courts this season, what with first-time champions being crowned and long-running win streaks coming to an end. But while we were all looking elsewhere, a couple perennial powerhouses have been plugging away in Rome, quietly doing what they do best, and may just have established themselves as big threats for this week and going forward.

Sara Errani is probably the least familiar to this position, but the one-time French Open runner-up won four titles that season, all on the dirt, and even reached the semis in Paris last year too. She's been a little less fruitful this year, losing the only final she's played and dropping just a hair outside the top ten. She hasn't faced a seed yet in her homeland, but she hasn't dropped a set yet either, handling an always-tricky Ekaterina Makarova in the second round without even allowing a break opportunity. She's got a tough task ahead if she wants to make it out of the quarters -- she next squares off against former Roland Garros winner Na Li, a woman she's never beaten. But on what's easily her best surface, she might just have the confidence to pull off the upset this time around.

After all Ana Ivanovic reversed her own fortune against a long-time rival just today. The former world #1 who started the year with a tidy 9-0 record, including a title in Auckland and a stunning win over Serena Williams in Melbourne, had put together a solid performance on the dirt as well this year. This week in Italy she survived a tight match against Alize Cornet in the second round, but had a much easier time on Thursday against 2012 champion Maria Sharapova -- a woman riding a two-title wave, and one whom the Serb hadn't beaten in almost seven years. It's her fourth top-ten victory of the year, maybe not her biggest, but certainly one that reaffirms she can hit with the power players. With a quarterfinal meeting against newly-anointed trophy-holder Carla Suarez Navarro, she might even have the upper hand now and could establish herself as a favorite for this title.

Countrywoman Jelena Jankovic has already tasted victory here before -- she won the title back in 2008, but more impressively pulled off two amazing victories over both Williams sisters two years later. It's been a while since those successes, of course -- over a year, in fact, since her last title -- but she's hung onto enough points to maintain a #8 ranking and a sixth seed in Rome, and so far she's performed up to task. She was well ahead in her opener when one-time French Open victor Svetlana Kuznetsova retired, and earlier today delivered a drama-free loss to Indian Wells champ Flavia Pennetta. She doesn't have a great head-to-head against quarterfinal opponent Aga Radwanska, but she did take their one and only meeting on this surface, and put up a nice fight in their latest battle in the California desert. And flying as far under the radar as she is, there's no reason she couldn't catch everyone off their guard.

There have been just as many men quietly making their ways through the draws. Milos Raonic is just off his career high ranking at #9 in the world, but with an ankle injury keeping him largely off Tour early in the season, he hasn't put up quite the numbers you'd expect from the big-serving Canadian. He did fairly well during the American hardcourt season, reaching the quarterfinals of Indian Wells and Miami, but was upset by Carlos Berlocq in Oeiras and eventual runner-up Kei Nishikori in Madrid. Earlier today, though, he may have turned around his luck, taking out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who'd just recorded his three-hundredth career win, in straight sets. And with the other seeds in his immediate section of the Rome bracket already taken care of for him, there's no reason to think he's going to stop there.

The same might be said for fifth seeded David Ferrer who, it's easy to forget, came in second in Paris last year. The veteran Spaniard claimed a title in Buenos Aires in February and had put together a more-than-solid 14-4 record on clay before making the trip to Italy, but he nevertheless isn't high on many lists to win this trophy. Like Raonic, Ferrer received a bye in the first round but won his first two matches in barely over an hour each, today taking out a quite capable Ernests Gulbis with five breaks of his opponent's serve. For a spot in the semis, he'll probably square off against Novak Djokovic, whose run here in 2011 capped a 37-match win streak to start that year. It's certainly not an easy ask, but Ferrer has won most of the pair's meetings on this surface, and if Nole hasn't fully recovered from the wrist injury he sustained in Monte Carlo, the underdog certainly has a fighting shot.

Somewhat of a surprising underdog the last few months has been Andy Murray, whose back surgery late last year kept him from defending his U.S. Open title and pushed him to a #8 ranking, his lowest in almost eight years, despite still reigning as a Grand Slam champion. His comeback has come in fits and starts -- his lower seed means he's battling the favorites earlier than he'd become used to, so he's only gotten as far as a semifinal once this year, but he's also posted losses to players like world #40 Florian Mayer and #46 Santiago Giraldo just last week. He may have gotten back on track in Rome, though, opening with a win over clay court specialist Marcel Granollers and today trumping also-rebuilding Jurgen Melzer, after a tight two sets. He'll take on seven-time champion Rafael Nadal tomorrow, and the King of Clay has certainly proven he's not quite done yet. But I always get nervous when these two face off, and this will be no exception.

It might be their colleagues grabbing the headlines recently, but with their performances this week, all of these guys have shown they have a shot at taking the trophies in Rome. After all, flying under the radar a little could be just what they need to gather up steam. And when they finally explode, we're all sure to sit up and take notice.

The Round-Up

I know it's been a while since I've posted, but that's no indication that there hasn't been a lot to talk about. The last two big events before the French Open featured eight distinct players battling for the crown, and each one made his or her case loud and clear that any could be real contenders at the year's next Grand Slam.

The biggest story in Madrid had nothing to do with the players and everything to do with the strange color of the court, but all complaints and dramatics aside, two of the strongest women in the field made their way to last week's final. World #1 Victoria Azarenka battled her way through a tough draw -- she faced 2009 Roland Garros champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in the first round -- to make her sixth final of the year. Meanwhile Serena Williams, finally toting a single-digit ranking again, looked to extend her win streak -- she'd taken a title in Charleston and swept opponents in her Fed Cup playoffs -- and dismissed potential threats from Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova to play for the title herself.

The final, though, was less dramatic than many hoped. Vika had put in some awe-inspiring battles during the pair's history, even when she ended up losing, and given the way she'd refined her game this year, the match-up promised to be brutal. But Serena built a 4-0 lead before the Belarusian was able to get on the board, and she had no occasion to look back from there. As Azarenka's serve failed her, she double-faulted away the first set after less than an hour of play. She tried to stay within spitting distance in the second but was unable to erase another early break there. With fourteen aces and nearly twice as many winners, Serena was finally the one holding the trophy -- her first on European clay since she won the French in 2002 -- and reminding us why nearly no one is safe when she's on her game.

The men in Madrid were out to make a similar statement. After both of last year's finalists lost before the semis, the remaining men knew the title was up for grabs. Roger Federer, winner here in 2009, had been on a roll recently, claiming three straight titles in February and March, and after surviving an early test from Milos Raonic in his opener, he sailed through his matches to make the final. In the other half, 2010 French semifinalist Tomas Berdych had pulled his game together, taking advantage of a Rafa-less draw and really only facing a challenge from Juan Martin Del Potro in the final four.

The Czech came out swinging in the final -- having won three of their last five, he had the confidence to do so. He got a break early in the first set and didn't squander the lead. But Federer turned the tables in the second -- this time it was his turn to ride a break to a 4-1 lead, and despite failing to serve out the set, he did eventually force the decider. The third set followed a similar pattern -- Roger broke in the eighth game, only to have his opponent even the score again. But with Berdych serving for a tiebreak, the Swiss kept his cool after losing a 0-40 lead and finally converted his fourth championship point, proving there are more than a few players able to win on the dirt.

The drama just intensified by the time everyone made their way over to Rome this week. A couple retirements on the women's side -- including both Madrid finalists -- wreaked a little havoc on the draw, but eventually the strong survived. Last year's champion Maria Sharapova got through some early tests from up-and-comer Christina McHale and resurgent Venus Williams before avenging her Paris loss to Angelique Kerber in the semis. And 2011 French Open champ Na Li, who's been pretty quiet since winning that trophy, benefitted from both Vika's and Serena's withdrawals, making the final without dropping a set.

The pair's head-to-head has been a see-saw of sorts -- MaSha won their first five meetings, but momentum shifted to Li's side for four matches after that, with Maria taking their last battle in Miami. The final was no different -- the Russian got the first break, but quickly gave it back, they stayed on serve for a bit, but Li broke again in the tenth game to take the first set. She built a 4-0 lead in the second, but the three-time Major winner rattled off eight games in a row and was a point away from 5-1 in the decider when Li started to rally again. The two had just fought to a tiebreak -- Sharapova saving a championship point along the way -- when rain halted play, and when the athletes finally took the court again, the 2011 winner was the one who kept her cool. Sharapova concerted her first match point, winning her second clay court title of the year and further turning around a recent losing streak in finals and reasserting her power just in time for the French.

The men's bracket was no less exciting. Defending champion Novak Djokovic rebounded from his quarterfinal loss in Madrid and took out one threat after another, notching his fifth victory over Roger Federer in their last six meetings. More impressive, perhaps, was Rafael Nadal, fresh off his earliest clay court loss since 2004 and a slight dip in his ranking, got right back to work in Rome. He easily made his way through early rounds, took out Madrid finalist Berdych in the quarters, and blanked compatriot David Ferrer to make the final.

So we'll be treated to a rematch of last year's final, though circumstances were slightly different this time around. Nadal had successfully ended his seven-final losing streak to Nole in Monte Carlo, and no one is sporting an astonishingly unblemished record going into the championship match. The head-to-head is more even than it had been, and both have shown they're not indomitable. When they both take the court, whether it's after a long rain delay on Sunday or Monday afternoon, they'll both bring their all to reclaim the crown. And while they've both proven to be great forces on the surface, something tells me this is where the Spaniard will reassert his dominance.

Of course, not all these guys and girls will be able to take the crown at Roland Garros, and experience may favor some over others. But each one of these players reminded the world of what it takes to win on clay. And if they're able to keep it up, they might be able to do some real damage when an even bigger trophy is on the line.

The Virtue of Patience

More than three years ago Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova stood atop the victory blocks in Melbourne, both just crowned champions at the 2008 Australian Open. Some thought the pair would be constant fixtures at the top of tennis, but for various reasons both had been pushed to the sidelines for some time. It's been long, very different roads since then for the two, but now just a few days from the start of another Grand Slam and they've both been rewarded and are finally king and queen of the same tournament again.

Sharapova had struggled after capturing her third Major title -- though she added a few trophies to her mantle that year, a shoulder injury hampered her play at Wimbledon and caused her to withdraw before the third round in Montreal. She came back to the game in mid-2009, and though she won a couple smaller titles here and there, she didn't really regain her footing until this year. A semifinal run in Indian Wells and runner-up finish in Miami pushed her back into the top ten, but she really turned on the heat in Rome.

Seeded seventh at the tournament, she got a big break in the quarterfinals, when Victoria Azarenka had to retire while up a break. Sharapova was quick to take advantage of the gift and followed up with a dominating straight-set win over world #1 Caroline Wozniacki. But against Sam Stosur in Sunday's final she was truly impressive -- the Russian ran off to a 4-0 lead against last year's second place finisher at Roland Garros, and after trading breaks to start the next set, took control of the match. In just under ninety minutes, Maria had improved to 8-0 against the big-hitting Aussie and reminded us all she's still hungry for the big titles.

Novak Djokovic, of course, came back into the spotlight much earlier in 2011. Though he'd spent much of the last three years playing third fiddle to Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, he erased any doubts that he should be considered part of the sport's elite when he reclaimed the title in Australia. And ever since then he's been on a roll, racking up a 32-0 record before coming to Rome, one of history's best starts to a season. Most of us thought that streak would end last week in Madrid, when he finally met Rafa on the surface he'd dominated for more than half a decade -- but even then, the surging Serb was unstoppable as he downed the previously undisputed King of Clay in straight sets. But surely lightning couldn't strike twice, right?

Well, by now we should know better than to count Djokovic out of anything. After easily dismissing two-time French Open finalist Robin Soderling in the quarters, he put on one of the greatest battles of the year to date against Andy Murray on Saturday night. He somehow surrendered the second set and gave back a break lead in the third. Murray even had a chance to serve for the match, but the relentless Nole wouldn't give up -- forced to a tiebreak, he got an early lead and didn't look back. After three hours, and probably the biggest scare he's had all year, Djokovic made the finals where he displayed no signs of exhaustion. There were three straight breaks in the first set to give Novak the early lead and he earned three championship points on Nadal's serve in the second -- finally converting on the fourth try and proving there might just be another man to beat on the dirt.

With just a week left before the French Open, it's encouraging to see both these athletes still playing at their best on a surface that's never been their favorite. On courts where the rallies can last so much longer, they've both shown they have the patience to ride out the toughest opponents -- and that maybe they'll be standing on top a few more times this year.

The Little Engines That Could

It's been a long time since there's been any confusion over who was going to win on clay.

For the past several years tournaments on the dirt -- especially the Major -- have been dominated by Rafael Nadal and, admittedly to a lesser extent, Justine Henin. But in 2011 we've realized there are many other contenders out there, and a couple are out to prove they more than just think they can win in Rome.

Sam Stosur took her first steps into the elite last year as she made her way to the French Open final, but she's been a little spotty in recent months, making just one quarterfinal through mid-April and failing to defend her Charleston title. She seems to have found her footing in Italy, though, at a tournament where she's never had much success before. The Australian opened with a solid victory over Iveta Benesova and earlier today exacted revenge for her crushing Roland Garros loss. Next she'll meet Australian Open finalist Na Li, a woman she's beaten handily in their previous two meetings, and the way the draw's opened up I like her chances to go even further.

But in the other half of the bracket lies a sleeping giant. Maria Sharapova hasn't been the force she once was at the big tournaments and though she has clawed her way back into the top ten, she hasn't won a premier trophy since 2008. But she was flawless against Ekaterina Makarova in her Rome opener and had a surprisingly easy time against veteran Shahar Peer on Thursday. She clearly got a huge break in her quarterfinal match when developing powerhouse Victoria Azarenka had to retire up a set, but something tells me MaSha is not one to squander the opportunity. Though her semifinal opponent, world #1 Caroline Wozniacki, has won their last two meetings, the Russian could take advantage of her weaknesses on the surface and make a real play for what would be just her second third clay court title.

The progression in the men's draw has been even more interesting -- though three of the top four seeds have made it to the semis, the one outlier has left quite a trail of champions in his wake. Richard Gasquet, who was ranked #82 in the world at this time last year, has really blossomed in 2011, highlighting his run with an upset of Andy Roddick back at Indian Wells. But his run in Rome has been even more impressive -- after stunning Roger Federer on Thursday in a two-hour plus marathon, he backed it up with a come-from-behind win against Wimbledon finalist this afternoon. He'll face Rafael Nadal tomorrow, clearly no easy task especially given that the Frenchman has never beaten the world #1 -- but this has been a year of firsts and I'm beginning to think anything is possible.

Speaking of doing the impossible, Novak Djokovic continues his stellar streak in the other half of the men's draw. Now 35-0 on the year, the momentum-ful Serb has a chance to make history within the month. I thought he's be in for at least a bit of a fight against two-time French Open finalist Robin Soderling, but after some early trading of breaks he quickly took control and blanked the Swede in the second set. A few more wins and not only will he set a record for the best start of the year (John McEnroe won forty-two matches to kick off the 1984 season) but he's within reach of becoming the first non-Roger, non-Rafa #1 since 2004. Andy Murray will be his most immediate obstacle, and though a few months ago I might have been a little nervous about his chances, I'm far more confident in his ability now.

Sure there are still big mountains to climb for all these guys and girls, but each have proven they're forces to contend with in Rome -- and if they pull off another win or two, it could be much smoother trucking ahead.

When In Rome...

The Italians are out in full force in their homeland this week, but so far it's been the visitors who've been more comfortable at the last big tournament before the French Open.

That's not to say the locals haven't been putting up a good fight -- Potito Starace pulled off a nice upset of fifteenth seeded Viktor Troicki earlier today and defending French Open champion Francesca Schiavone won her opener in decisive form Tuesday. But some others, after promising starts, ultimately succumbed to more experienced athletes making themselves at home in Rome.

Alberta Brianti, whose win in Fes seemed to give her a bit of momentum -- she followed it up with a quarterfinal run in Barcelona -- started her run in impressive form. She pulled off a straight set victory over former top-twenty play Jie Zheng in her opener, winning almost half the points on her opponent's serve. But on Wednesday she ran up against fellow veteran Greta Arn who, at thirty-two years of age, is having the most success of her career. Despite a dismal second serve percentage, the Hungarian was able to convert when needed and stopped the hometown girl's campaign in just under ninety minutes. Next up she faces a wholly beatable Elena Vesnina, so she just might be able to extend her run.

Filippo Volandri tells a similar story -- having climbed to his highest ranking in about three years on the heels of a semifinal run in Belgrade, he pulled off a one-sided victory over Thiemo de Bakker on Sunday, dropping just three games in the win. He looked good against Stanislas Wawrinka today, too, taking advantage of the fact that the fourteenth seed had already withstood a long three-setter against another Italian Fabio Fognini on Tuesday. But the Swiss steadied himself after losing the second set and though he didn't deliver a terribly noteworthy performance, he adapted long enough to capitalize on break chances, eventually earning the win and the right to mean white-hot Novak Djokovic on Thursday. I'm not sure Stan will be the one to end Nole's streak, but he's got to at least feel more comfortable after a shaky start.

Romina Oprandi was just starting to turn her year around when she got the wildcard in Rome. Having started 2011 with a 0-7 record, she finally notched a win in Estoril before making the semis at an ITF event in Prague. A surprise three-set defeat of world #19 Kaia Kanepi in her first round should have given her a bit of confidence, but she couldn't quite get her footing against Daniela Hantuchova. After keeping things close in the first set, the Slovak got a late break and powered through the second, dropping just nine points on her serve. Though Hantuchova has been on a bit of a roller coaster the last year or so, her decisive win today could give her the edge as she progresses -- she'll need whatever she can get against second-seeded Schiavone, who she'll face next.

If any Italian was going to make an unexpected run, though, I'd have put my money on Sara Errani, a semifinalist in both Marbella and Barcelona. She was handily beating compatriot Roberta Vinci in their first round Tuesday when her opponent retired, and I would have thought she'd be well rested today. But Victoria Azarenka, playing some of the best ball on the women's Tourthese days, had other ideas. She made good on a career-high ranking by forcing sixteen break chances during the match and converting six of them. Vika allowed Errani just three points on her second serve and closed out the match in just over an hour, proving she could push her disappointing loss on Sunday out of her mind. The road will certainly get harder here on out, but Azarenka's proven she's not just a hardcourt hitter and could still cause a few more surprises this week.

Perhaps the biggest shock from the Italian underdogs, though, came from qualifier Paolo Lorenzi, ranked just inside the top 150. He'd only played two Tour-level matches this year, winning just one of them, but scored a huge win over Madrid semifinalist Thomaz Bellucci in his opening round. Most probably assumed his luck would end there, but when he won the first set tiebreaker from heavy favorite Rafael Nadal earlier today, the hometown crowd went wild. But Rafa is the king of upping his game when the chips are down, and he quickly broke serve to begin the second set. After finally drawing even, he was able to take control and blanked the far less experienced Lorenzi in the third set, narrowly escaping what would have been his biggest upset on clay.

Clearly some of these guys have a better chance of continuing their runs than others, but so far they've all proven they can certainly do as the Romans do -- and sometimes, they do even better.

Where'd That Come From?

If you'd written off Ana Ivanovic from the top tiers of women's tennis recently, you probably weren't alone.

The former world #1, '08 Roland Garros champ, hadn't put together back-to-back wins since Brisbane in January. The last time she beat a top-twenty player was at Wimbledon, she's been title-less since Linz two years ago and watched her ranking drop into the high double-digits after a disappointing showing in Indian Wells. Ana has done some things to get back in form, hiring Steffi Graf's former coach among them, but it hasn't seemed to do much good.

At least not until this week.

For months we watched Ana put up a fight -- she actually had several leads over Kim Clijsters at the Billie Jean King exhibition match in March and kept things close against Aggie Radwanska at two straight tournaments -- but never quite pull off the win. So when she got past Elena Vesnina in the first round in Rome on Monday, I thought it was a fluke. A straight set win over ninth seed Victoria Azarenka yesterday, I considered encouraging.

But I never gave her a chance against Elena Dementieva in the third round. The Russian had won all four of their previous matches -- at least one on every surface -- and ceded only two sets. Sure, Elena has one of the weaker serves on the Tour but, if possible, Ana's is usually worse. But all the new coaching seems to have successfully, and suddenly, paid off. Ivanovic has dished out eleven aces already this week, outnumbering her double faults almost two-to-one.

Today she won seventy percent of her first serve attempts and held Dementieva to only a third of the points in the first set. She rolled through the first half with a 6-1 win. The ladies traded breaks in the next set and ultimately forced a tiebreak, which Ana won, 7-5. After less than a hundred minutes, she's made only her second quarterfinal in the past twelve months.

Of course, by virtue of a low rank and no seeding, the road ahead will be tough. Ivanovic faces a feisty Nadia Petrova in the next round, a woman she hasn't beaten since 2007, and a third straight match with Radwanska looms in the semis should she make it. Then again, in a tournament which has already seen so many casualties -- Sam Stosur withdrew, while Caroline Wozniacki, Dinara Safina and Svetlana Kuznetsova all lost early -- there's plenty of room for surprises.

And it may just be Ana's strategy to catch the whole tennis world by surprise.

Master Class

It wasn't long ago that detractors were saying Rafael Nadal's fifteen minutes at the top of the tennis world were up. He had lost ignominiously in the fourth round of the Grand Slam that had come to be his second home. A knee injury kept him from defending his 2008 Wimbledon title. Before Monte Carlo he hadn't won a championship since Rome last year> And even though he'd made at least the quarters of every tournament he played since Paris, he was clearly suffering a major downturn.

To them, I say, "Ha!" (accompanied by a gesture that's not befitting of a lady).

Nadal began to silence some naysayers when he did recapture the trophy in Monaco, becoming the only player in the Open era to win the Rolex championship in six consecutive years. But it wasn't until this week, when at twenty-three he surpassed Roger Federer by winning his record-tying seventeenth Masters 1000 title, that Rafa really showed he was back.

All week he was in top form, dismantling tough players in Philipp Kohlschreiber, Victor Hanescu and Stanislas Wawrinka in back-to-back matches. He struggled a bit against Ernests Gulbis in the semis, dropping his only set of this clay court season, but handily earned the right to meet countryman David Ferrer in the title match on Sunday. The pair endured two rain delays, but ultimately it was the more experienced Nadal, playing in his twenty-third Masters final, who was victorious. He was strong on serve, getting eighty percent of his first shots in and denying David the only break opportunity he had.



It was an impressive victory, and one that draws him even with Andre Agassi who captured his seventeenth Masters trophy in 2004 at the age of thirty-four. And I know I jinxed myself by saying this before, but if Rafa stays healthy there's room for him to win many more before his time is up. Of course Roger Federer, who won his sixteenth in Cincinnati last year, is clearly hot on his tail.

But more importantly, Rafa's latest championship proves he's still in the game and, hopefully, will jumpstart the rivalry between two of the greatest in the sport. It's been a while since he and Fed have met, and these days it looks like -- if Roger can make it far enough -- it will be a fun fight to watch!

Revenge Is Sweet

Less than a week ago world #1 Dinara Safina was playing in her first championship match since she claimed the top spot from Serena Williams. It was a huge opportunity to prove her worth, since Serena, having won both the U.S. and Australian Opens while Safina had lost the only two Grand Slam finals she'd ever played. What better opportunity than to win the first tournament she played with the ranking?

It must have been frustrating when she lost in straight sets to Svetlana Kuznetsova, who hadn't won a title since New Haven in 2007.

This week, however, Dinara was out for revenge.

In Rome she came close to early elimination several times. Jie Zheng was two points away from a third round upset when Dinara rallied back and unseeded María José Martínez Sánchez was up 6-4, 3-1 in the quarters before losing the next eleven games.

It seemed only fitting that Safina should meet Kuznetsova again in the finals. The fourth best Russian had beaten Daniela Hantuchova, Flavia Pennetta, Jelena Jankovic and red-hot Victoria Azarenka consecutively for her second straight final.

But Dinara was too much to handle two weeks in a row. She got more than seventy percent of her first serves in and absolutely dominated her opponent, winning 71% of Svetlanta's second attempts. Ninety minutes after they took the court, Dinara walked away with her first trophy of the year. And with Serena losing in her first match of the tournament, Dinara may have gotten revenge against two competitors.



Meanwhile in Portugal, James Blake continued his quest to make his first final in over a year -- in fact, like Kuznetsova, his last title came in Connecticut nearly two years ago. Maybe he didn't want Svetlana to get all the glory.

At the semifinals of the Estoril Open, he took on Nikolay Davydenko, whom he has beaten in their six previous meetings. Blake squandered several breaks in the first set, eventually falling in a tiebreak, but held a 4-2 advantage in the second when play was called for darkness. (Come on, kids! It's 2009 -- get some lights!)

Anyway, here's hoping he comes back tomorrow. If he wins, he'll take on seventh seed Albert Montanes, who ousted Gilles Simon in the quarters -- and, fingers crossed, could win his first ever title on clay!

I'll be cheering for him all the way!

Setting the Course

The women are following up last week's exciting men's tournament in Rome with their own round of battles at the Internazionali BNL D'Italia, and it could prove to be a solid test for some of the sport's best athletes.

Defending champion Jelena Jankovic faced a bit of a scare in her second round match when Gisela Dulko took her to a tiebreak, but eventually advanced in straight sets. But a rematch of last year's final was precluded when 2008 runner-up Alize Cornet, who's had trouble gaining her footing this year, was demolished by Kateryna Bondarenko.



The tournament also marks the return of Ana Ivanovic as she seeks to defend her French Open crown later this month. She's been pretty quiet so far this year, making it to the finals in Indian Wells, but then losing in the third round in Miami. Current #1 Dinara Safina took nearly two hours to get past Virginie Razzano, and Serena Williams, out to prove she's a force to be reckoned with on clay, hopes to imporove on her first round exit in Marbella last month.



Former top-ten player Anna Chakvetadze put together back-to-back wins for the first time this year as she followed up an upset of sixteenth seen Anabel Medina Garrigues with a tight three-setter against Ponte Vedra Beach finalist Aleksandra Wozniak. And though Elena Vesnina tried to stage her second comeback of the tournament, she ultimately succumbed to China's Jie Zheng, who's finanlly broken into the top twenty.



It's obviously important for all these players to have a strong showing in Rome -- with just a few weeks left until Roland Garros, everyone is trying to make a case for themselves. As it stands, the door leading to the top spot is as wide open as it has been for some time and a couple of big wins could shake up the top-five pretty substantially.

And for those trying to make their first mark of the season, there's never any better time to score an upset than on the red clay of Europe!