The Days That Shook the Earth

Well it's official -- you can never tell what's going to happen at Roland Garros.

With one round's worth of action in the books, I'm not sure whether we've had any more or fewer upsets than in previous years, but we've sure seen some results none of us could have expected. And the surprises just got bigger and bigger over time.

On day one Andy Roddick took the court against co-marathon man Nicolas Mahut in one of the matches I pegged as a potential upset. The American tried to rally a bit in the third set, but it was all for naught as his opponent -- who'd only won one match in his nine Paris appearances -- took him out in the fourth. A day later world #1 Victoria Azarenka nearly became the fifth straight Major winner to take an early plane home from their subsequent Slam when she found herself down a set and two breaks to current #103 Alberta Brianti. But the Belarusian, no stranger to digging deep, found a way to rally and rattled off six straight games, winning twelve of the last fourteen to notch the win.

But of course the biggest shocker came earlier today when Madrid champion Serena Williams, widely thought to be the favorite here despite her fifth seed, essentially crumbled at the hands of veteran Virginie Razzano, a woman who's lost in the first round here seven times. Securely in the lead at 5-1 in the second set tiebreak, the 2002 champion was two points from the win when she things turned south -- she lost six straight points and the set and watched Razzano, who lost her fiancé just before this tournament last year, run off to a 5-0 lead in the decider. Four games later Williams was walking off the court, her earliest ever exit at a Major. And for her efforts the Frenchwoman, who has beaten the likes of Kaia Kanepi, Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova in the last couple years, gets her first second round at her home Slam since 2009.

It may not seem like a lot -- after all, the top fourteen men's seeds are still alive, and the three guys who most expect are the only real contenders for the title each sailed through their openers. And all recent winners of the ladies' trophy as well as favorites like Maria Sharapova and 2010 finalist Sam Stosur have had little trouble advancing. But that doesn't mean there aren't more surprises in store, and the hopefuls that are able to best take advantage could see rewards even they were never expecting.

No Shelter From the Rain

With so many of the top players this week concentrated in a couple of higher-profile tournaments, a couple who've been struggling recently might have hoped to catch a few easy points at events where the draws were more sparse. But things are never as easy as they may first appear, and from the start results have proven that no one should rest easy.

Defending champs in Bucharest and Fes both lost their opening matches. Florian Mayer, who hasn't won a match since Miami, fell after a long struggle with Xavier Malisse in his opener, and Alberta Brianti, just clinging onto a spot in the top hundred, went three sets but still fell to Monterrey finalist Alexandra Cadantu in her first round. But they weren't the only ones leaving the draws earlier than expected.

Marcos Baghdatis has had fits and starts for the last several years, so it shouldn't be a big surprise that his performance is so unpredictable. Still with wins over Juan Martin Del Potro in Sydney and Feliciano Lopez in Indian Wells, he'd earned the fifth seed in Bucharest and should have had a fairly easy time of things early. Unfortunately for him he ran into Fabio Fognini earlier today -- a man who's pulled off a few big wins on the dirt. Just out of seeding territory, the Italian was undervalued on paper, but he wasn't deterred. In a match that saw eleven breaks of serve, Fognini was eventually the winner, earning his first quarterfinal of the year.

Victor Troicki has been even less impressive so far this year -- ranked in the top fifteen just twelve months ago, he's notched only one top-fifty win this season. Still he came to Romania a fourth seed, looking to turn his year around. But against Matthias Bachinger, who he'd already beaten this year in Doha, he came up against a roadblock. He was able to force a third set after losing the first, but the German took control in the tiebreak and after two-and-a-half hours on court dismissed the slumping Serb. Troicki will need to rebuild quickly if he's going to get back on track.

The scalps have been just as big in Fes. One-time U.S. Open semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer, whose ranking peaked at #12 exactly two years ago, has had a couple good runs this year, but hasn't been able to defend a lot of points. Now ranked out of the top thirty, she should nevertheless have been the favorite against Patricia Mayr-Achleitner in her first round. But unable to hold serve and barely making a dent in her return games, the Belgian fell in straight sets.

Second-seeded Svetlana Kuznetsova, fresh off a disappointing loss to Jelena Jankovic last weekend in Fed Cup, has also seen her star fall this year. The former world #3 dropped out of the top twenty after a third-round loss in Doha and hasn't won more than two matches at any event since January. She looked to be in good shape against up-and-comer Irina-Camelia Begu in Morocco, winning the first set 6-1. But after losing the second, she suffered a thigh injury that forced her to retire. Hopefully she'll be back in shape if she's going to try for another French Open crown next month.

The latest casualty in Fes came this morning. Petra Cetkovska hasn't exactly been struggling, ranked just off her career high at #30, but now that she's spending less time on the ITF circuit, she hasn't had many deep tournament runs, making just one third round in Doha. She looked strong early this week, not dropping a set in her first two matches, but against lucky loser Mathilde Johansson, who'd already bumped off a similarly flailing Shahar Peer a round earlier, she couldn't find her game. She got fewer than half her first serves in and won a dismal thirty-one percent on her second attempts. With a ton of Wimbledon points coming off in the next few months, she'll need to remember how to play against the big girls.

Seeded players are certainly getting no passes at this week's events, and that's certainly left a lot of holes in the brackets. For the favorites remaining, they should be warned out of getting too complacent. But perhaps more importantly, the spoilsports out there should be encouraged to take advantage. After all, no one is unbeatable in this sport, and whoever pounces first could reap quite the reward.

The Turnarounds

There's nothing worse than seeing a promising talent burn out after having a burst of success.

It happens a lot, of course -- former #1 Dinara Safina's injuries have taken her out of the game indefinitely and Sam Querrey, once considered the future of American tennis, has been having only moderate success on the Challengers' Tour since elbow surgery took him out of the game for a while. But there is sometimes light at the end of the tunnel, and a couple players are trying to prove their strong starts to the year were no fluke.

Many of the top women in the sport made their way over to Luxembourg this week, but some of the best results have come from the non-seeded players. Veteran Alberta Brianti won her first ever title days after her thirty-first birthday in April, and though she's had a couple nice victories after that -- a suddenly resurgent Flavia Pennetta in Carlsbad, sky-rocketing Sabine Lisicki in Linz -- she hasn't been able to gain the same traction she had in the spring. But after her first round victory over Anna Tatishvili this week, she might be swinging strong again. She'll have to get past top seed and world #3 Victoria Azarenka to go any further here, but her strong start could give her the confidence she needs.

Then there's Anastasija Sevastova, whose surprise run to the fourth round of the Australian Open helped her climb to a career high ranking of #36 in the world in January. She's only won eight matches since, falling in twelve first rounds. Now ranked out of the top hundred, the Latvian seems to be getting her game back in order in Luxembourg. She dealt a one-sided defeat to Pennetta in her opener and earlier today was similarly impressive against rising star Simona Halep, winning more than seventy percent of her first serves and breaking the Romanian six times. She'll have to raise her game even more against her next opponent, Stuttgart champion Julia Goerges, but the German has also been off her game a bit recently and hasn't won more than two matches at an event since April. If Sevastova takes charge, she could make a big impact here.

Over in Stockholm, the field is led by world #10 Gael Monfils, but I've got my eye on some players a little further down the rankings. Ivan Dodig erupted onto the scene to start the year, winning a title in Zagreb and making the finals in 's-Hertogenbosch. He was also the only player to take a set off Novak Djokovic during his Australian Open run. He's gone 4-10 since mid-June, though, and though he remains the seventh seed in Sweden he's fallen far out of the spotlight. But the Croat has a chance to change that this week -- after a tough win over Adrian Mannarino he will meet former world #3 David Nalbandian for a spot in the quarters later today. Dodig lost their previous meeting a few weeks back, but he is the on-paper favorite here, and will want to reverse that result.

More impressive has been the return of my dear James Blake in Stockholm. After falling way out of the top hundred, he's been plodding his way through the Challengers' Tour all year, winning titles in Winnetka and Sarasota. He's still been trophy-less on the pro circuit for over four years, but back at #69, he's playing solid ball again. Yesterday Blake pulled off his biggest win in years as he upset second seed 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets. It's probably too soon to call the bracket wide open for the American -- he'll face the winner of Dodig/Nalbandian next -- but the upcoming challenges are much less intimidating than the one he's already overcome.

With only a few weeks left in the season, there's never been a better time for these players to turn their years -- or careers -- around. There's no telling yet how long their streaks will last this week, but their wins so far sure show they've still got what it takes to make a dent in their draws.

And if they play up to their potential, it could change things dramatically in the months to come.

New Stars Emerge

The last couple weeks on the ladies Tour have been dominated by a very familiar group of players -- those we've become used to seeing in the later rounds of the Majors and the ones who've been staples in and around the top-ten for most of the year.

But at the slightly smaller events this week we're starting to see some new faces last into the latter matches. It's not that the tournaments are without star power -- winners of the last two Grand Slams are in both draws -- but it's a couple others who have potential to really make an impact.

At the HP Open in Osaka, some of the year's break-out stars are continuing their momentum. U.S. Open semifinalist Angelique Kerber, just a shade off her career-high ranking, has only dropped seven games in her first two rounds. And Petra Cetkovska, who began the year ranked #142 in the world, has followed up well on her fourth-round run at Wimbledon -- she's now made her third Tour quarterfinal since July.

But the true player to watch in Japan might be veteran South African Chanelle Scheepers. A true journeywoman, the twenty-seven year old has never finished a year ranked inside the top one hundred. But since nearly defeating Francesca Schiavone at the U.S. Open and then earning her first career title in Guangzhou immediately after, she's vaulted into everyone's attention. She had a tough second round match against doubles champion Yaroslava Shvedova and faces a more-than-intimidating Sam Stosur next, but the girl knows how to persevere and I wouldn't put an upset past her.

The ladies in Linz have been similarly impressive. Fes champion Alberta Brianti hadn't made much of an impact in the intervening months, but a dominating win over uber-tough Sabine Lisicki in the first round put the Italian back on the map. And Ksenia Pervak, who won her maiden crown in Tashkent back in September, has a very good chance to make a dent in the draw when she takes out Daniela Hantuchova later today.

But here I've got my eye on qualifier Sorana Cirstea. Once ranked #23 in the world, the young Romanian hasn't followed up on her French Open success from years ago -- this year alone she's lost in or before the second round of seventeen events. But two ITF titles, including one last month in Saint Malo, may have helped her turn things around -- she began her run in Austria with a fairly easy win over Wimbledon quarterfinalist Tamira Paszek and then staged an impressive come-from-behind win over world #15 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -- her first top-twenty win in over a year. She'll next face either Brianti or Lucie Safarova, neither an opponent to be overlooked, but certainly less of a challenge than what she's already faced.

Sure it's getting late in the year and there's not a lot of time left to make a big move in the rankings. But as their seasons wind down it sure looks like they're all looking to get momentum moving in their direction. And as they prep for 2012, now might be the perfect time to come out swinging.

When In Rome...

The Italians are out in full force in their homeland this week, but so far it's been the visitors who've been more comfortable at the last big tournament before the French Open.

That's not to say the locals haven't been putting up a good fight -- Potito Starace pulled off a nice upset of fifteenth seeded Viktor Troicki earlier today and defending French Open champion Francesca Schiavone won her opener in decisive form Tuesday. But some others, after promising starts, ultimately succumbed to more experienced athletes making themselves at home in Rome.

Alberta Brianti, whose win in Fes seemed to give her a bit of momentum -- she followed it up with a quarterfinal run in Barcelona -- started her run in impressive form. She pulled off a straight set victory over former top-twenty play Jie Zheng in her opener, winning almost half the points on her opponent's serve. But on Wednesday she ran up against fellow veteran Greta Arn who, at thirty-two years of age, is having the most success of her career. Despite a dismal second serve percentage, the Hungarian was able to convert when needed and stopped the hometown girl's campaign in just under ninety minutes. Next up she faces a wholly beatable Elena Vesnina, so she just might be able to extend her run.

Filippo Volandri tells a similar story -- having climbed to his highest ranking in about three years on the heels of a semifinal run in Belgrade, he pulled off a one-sided victory over Thiemo de Bakker on Sunday, dropping just three games in the win. He looked good against Stanislas Wawrinka today, too, taking advantage of the fact that the fourteenth seed had already withstood a long three-setter against another Italian Fabio Fognini on Tuesday. But the Swiss steadied himself after losing the second set and though he didn't deliver a terribly noteworthy performance, he adapted long enough to capitalize on break chances, eventually earning the win and the right to mean white-hot Novak Djokovic on Thursday. I'm not sure Stan will be the one to end Nole's streak, but he's got to at least feel more comfortable after a shaky start.

Romina Oprandi was just starting to turn her year around when she got the wildcard in Rome. Having started 2011 with a 0-7 record, she finally notched a win in Estoril before making the semis at an ITF event in Prague. A surprise three-set defeat of world #19 Kaia Kanepi in her first round should have given her a bit of confidence, but she couldn't quite get her footing against Daniela Hantuchova. After keeping things close in the first set, the Slovak got a late break and powered through the second, dropping just nine points on her serve. Though Hantuchova has been on a bit of a roller coaster the last year or so, her decisive win today could give her the edge as she progresses -- she'll need whatever she can get against second-seeded Schiavone, who she'll face next.

If any Italian was going to make an unexpected run, though, I'd have put my money on Sara Errani, a semifinalist in both Marbella and Barcelona. She was handily beating compatriot Roberta Vinci in their first round Tuesday when her opponent retired, and I would have thought she'd be well rested today. But Victoria Azarenka, playing some of the best ball on the women's Tourthese days, had other ideas. She made good on a career-high ranking by forcing sixteen break chances during the match and converting six of them. Vika allowed Errani just three points on her second serve and closed out the match in just over an hour, proving she could push her disappointing loss on Sunday out of her mind. The road will certainly get harder here on out, but Azarenka's proven she's not just a hardcourt hitter and could still cause a few more surprises this week.

Perhaps the biggest shock from the Italian underdogs, though, came from qualifier Paolo Lorenzi, ranked just inside the top 150. He'd only played two Tour-level matches this year, winning just one of them, but scored a huge win over Madrid semifinalist Thomaz Bellucci in his opening round. Most probably assumed his luck would end there, but when he won the first set tiebreaker from heavy favorite Rafael Nadal earlier today, the hometown crowd went wild. But Rafa is the king of upping his game when the chips are down, and he quickly broke serve to begin the second set. After finally drawing even, he was able to take control and blanked the far less experienced Lorenzi in the third set, narrowly escaping what would have been his biggest upset on clay.

Clearly some of these guys have a better chance of continuing their runs than others, but so far they've all proven they can certainly do as the Romans do -- and sometimes, they do even better.

The Breakout and the Breakthrough

The ladies were out to impress as they took to the red clay courts of the tournaments held this week. A slew of top ten players and former #1s were in action as play really started heating up ahead of the second Grand Slam of the year, just four weeks away.

In Morocco the upsets started early and only one of the top four seeds made it safely out of the second round. One-time French Open runner-up Dinara Safina staged a valiant effort to make the semis -- her first since Cincinnati in 2009 -- but an unfortunate bout of food poisoning ended her run early, allowing world #94 into the finals -- her first since Guangzhou that same year. There she met rising star, nineteen-year-old Simona Halep, herself a finalist here last year. The two had met only once before, with the youngster trouncing the thirty-one year old veteran while qualifying for Montreal about nine months ago.

But it was a different story this time around. The unseeded Brianti, who hasn't been able to break into the top fifty in her eleven-plus years on the circuit, took control of the match early, running off to a 5-2 start before rain delayed play. She withstood a comeback by the seventh-seeded Halep and broke her opponent again to take the first set. Though they traded breaks in the second set, the Italian was able to remain ever so slightly stronger and eventually finished off the match in just an hour of play. It was her first career Tour title, and after nine ITF trophies, it couldn't have come at a better time. It might be too late to really put herself on the map at Roland Garros, but more than a few stars may find themselves on the wrong side of a Brianti upset in the coming weeks.

The elite in Stuttgart were served notice as well. With seven of the top eight women in the world coming out for the Premier event in Germany, there was plenty of talent on the court. But again the seeds fell early -- defending French Open champion Francesca Schiavone, 2008 U.S. Open runner-up Jelena Jankovic and Melbourne finalist Na Li all lost their second matches. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki was able to advance, but in the championship match she faced unseeded Julia Goerges, who'd beaten a tough Sam Stosur in the semis.

The twenty-one year old German has been causing players fits all year, taking a set from Maria Sharapova at the Australian Open and beating Shahar Peer en route to the Charleston quarters. She then pounded Melanie Oudin last weekend at the Fed Cup playoffs, confirming just how strong a force she is. But she was even more impressive this week in her home country -- though she was down a set to Victoria Azarenka in the second round before her opponent retired, she regrouped on her way to the final. Against the top seed on Sunday she held her ground, didn't drop serve once during the match and found angles on the court that frustrated the usually calm and collected Caroline. Goerges won the first set in a tiebreak and worked to a 3-0 lead in the second, then never looked back. At the end of the day she was holding the trophy, easily the biggest of her career -- so far.

It's always encouraging to get that first big trophy -- whether it comes at the end of a career or sets the stage for many more to come. Both of these ladies have certainly put themselves on everyone's radar, and something tells me we haven't seen the last of either.