Time to Step Up

The clay court season got underway in earnest this week, and while many of the sport's top stars are taking to the courts of Barcelona and Stuttgart, it might be the action at some lower-profile events that warrants some real attention. The fields might seem a little less intimidating, but that only increases the pressure on the favorites to perform -- and opens the door for the underdogs to really show us what they've got.

World #30 Daniela Hantuchova takes the top seed in Marrakech, and was tested from the start. She dropped her opening set to little-known qualifier Renata Voracova before rallying to win her next two matches. The one-time top-five player has never won a title on the dirt, though, so she might still be a long-shot for this one. Instead watch out for Garbine Muguruza, the young Spaniard who stormed through qualifying rounds in Hobart to win her first career title and then rode that momentum to the fourth round in Melbourne. She lost three first rounds in a row, though, before coming to Morocco, and should be looking to turn her luck back around. Next up she'll face fellow comeback kid, Shahar Peer -- the veteran was a stone's throw from the top ten not that long ago, but has since fallen all the way to #92. Her only title since 2009 came at a 125K-level event last year in China, and she's barely won more than two matches at any event in quite some time. Peer hasn't had to face a seed here yet -- her last opponent took care of rising star Elina Svitolina for her -- but if she sinks her teeth in early should could prove to be a real spoiler in this draw.

Over in Bucharest all eyes are on Grigor Dimitrov, who won his second career title in Acapulco a few months back and subsequently climbed to a high ranking of #14 in the world. He was pushed by another young upstart, Jiri Vesely, in Wednesday's second round, but should have an easier time against his next opponent, a battle-worn Sergiy Stakhovsky, who's gone three sets in his last two matches. Still, Dimitrov's had most of his success on other surfaces -- he won Juniors titles at Wimbledon and New York and has only gone as far as the third round in Roland Garros -- so there's plenty of room for underdogs here too. Famed giant-slayer Lukas Rosol won his only title here last year, and though he's not seeded here he did manage an upset over Jarkko Nieminen to make the quarterfinals. And Robin Haase, who'd only won three matches all year before heading to Romania, today pulled off the upset of the event so far, taking out world #15 Mikhail Youzhny in straight sets. He won't face another seed until at least the semis, so the Dutchman could really make a legitimate play for this title. And after the season he's had, there might not be a better time.

The favorites, of course, have plenty of potential to deliver on their status this week, but with the fields so wide open in both Marrakech and Bucharest, it really does seem to be anybody's game. And for whoever is able to rise to the challenge -- or seize the opportunity -- it could be a big step for the rest of their season.

Even More Upsetting

There seems to be a strange new trend in tennis these days, where players, even the most favored ones, prove they're fallible time and again. We saw it happen throughout the fortnight at Wimbledon, and the phenomenon resumed posthaste once the trophies were presented.

Here's the thing, though: it's not enough to simply poke a hole or two in the draw -- you've got to follow through after that. That was less the case at the All England Club, with the vanquishers of both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both losing one round later. Things weren't much better on the ladies' side -- while Sabine Lisicki rode her upset of Serena Williams all the way to the final, Michelle Larcher de Brito couldn't do much more after defeating Maria Sharapova in the second round.

That same trend has also manifested itself in the current tournaments. Daniel Brands, having scored a huge upset over Federer in his Gstaad opener, subsequently lost to Victor Hanescu a day later, while Albert Montanes ousted top Umag seed Richard Gasquet and then lost a long battle Friday to Gael Monfils. And Ons Jabeur, who ousted defending Baku champion Bojana Jovanovski on Wednesday, suffered an ankle injury during her match today, allowing qualifier Magda Linette -- ranked #226 in the world -- into her first ever Tour semi. But hope is not lost for everyone, and a couple players still have a shot at proving their early successes this week were no fluke.

Nineteen year old Elina Svitolina won her first Tour title last year in Pune, beating Andrea Petkovic in the process, and in 2013 she's made the semis in both Cali and Bad Gastein. This week she took to the hard courts of Baku as the seventh seed and earlier today took out Birmingham finalist Donna Vekic in a quick two sets. In the semis she'll face Alexandra Cadantu, the only other seed left in the draw -- the Ukraine native lost the pair's only previous meeting, but that was some two years ago when she was ranked outside the top four hundred. A win on Saturday -- and, dare we speculate, maybe on Sunday too -- would not only underscore her performance so far, but might just push her into the higher tiers of the sport.

Meanwhile in Gstaad, Robin Haase is trying to make a similar move up the rankings. The Dutchman, who returns to Kitzbuhel next week to defend the title he's won the past two years, has yet to manage a sustained stay in the top forty. But after dominating third-seeded Janko Tipsarevic in Switzerland, the twenty-six year old survived a two-and-a-half hour battle against Marcel Granollers to make the semis. With world #29 Feliciano Lopez the highest seed remaining, the field is wide open for Haase to add a new trophy to his case and maybe give him the oomph he needs to really establish himself in the sport.

Of course upsets have been known to bring tears to the eye, but while both these players have caused their opponents woe this week, they'll want to make sure their own cheeks stay dry throughout the summer. It'll be a hard task, to be sure, but after the performances they've already put up there's no reason think it's impossible.

And with the way things are going this summer, there may be no better time to get stuff done.

Out of the Spotlight

For the next two weeks most of the sporting world will have its eyes turned to a couple spots in London where the world's best athletes are competing for Olympic gold across a variety of sports. But there's action elsewhere in the tennis world, and this weekend a few players who haven't tasted victory in quite some time have a chance to change their luck while no one is looking.

A crop of under-the-radar ladies headed over to Baku, Azerbaijan where defending champion Vera Zvonareva was not in the mix. In fact with no one in the top fifty making the trip, the draw was wider open than the draws suggest -- top seed Ksenia Pervak had only won more than a match at one event since late March and the highest seed to survive the first round was Luxembourg's Mandy Minella, ranked #82 in the world. That opened the door for young American Julia Cohen who scored her first and only Tour-level win a few weeks back in Palermo. The twenty-two year old benefitted from Pervak's retirement in the first round, but then followed up with two solid three-set wins to make her first WTA final Saturday. There she met Serbia's Bojana Jovanovski, an up-and-comer who began 2011 with a bang. She hasn't had the same success this season, but by beating second seed Alexandra Panova in the semis, she earned her own championship debut. It wasn't much of a struggle for the fifth seed -- pouncing on her opponent's serve, she broke five times and in just over ninety minutes she was able to hoist her first ever tournament trophy.

The men in Kitzbuhel had a little more firepower in their ranks. Philipp Kohlschreiber, who defeated Rafael Nadal in Halle, made the Wimbledon quarters, and actually is in the Olympic draw, fended off fellow Rafa-crusher Lukas Rosol on the way to his second final of the year. But he ran into defending champion Robin Haase, who'd dropped just a set on his way back to the final. The Dutchman hasn't had the best year -- before making his way to Austria he sported a losing record for the season -- but with wins over Thomaz Bellucci and Xavier Malisse, he's shown signs of strength. Haase lost the first set of Saturday's final in a one-sided tiebreak, but rallied in the second and saved all six break points in the deciding set. With the win the world #42 -- who will open his own Olympic campaign against Richard Gasquet -- brings some good momentum with him to London. And having won the title so casually, he might be able to sneak up on some of the favorites.

The Los Angeles final won't be contested until later today, but the men who've thrived there may also be benefitting from a little less pressure. Former Junior #1 Ricardas Berankis had to survive qualifying rounds to make the main draw, but once he got there he turned on the juice. He opened by upsetting seventh seed Bjorn Phau and in the three matches that followed, he has only dropped serve once. Meanwhile two-time champion Sam Querrey, well off his career-high ranking after injury sidelined him about two years ago, made his own way quickly through the draw. His biggest challenge came in last night's semi when he fought back from a break down in the second versus fellow American Rajeev Ram. His eventual win secured Querrey his first final since he won here in 2010, and against the untested Lithuanian, you have to favor the experience of the hometown favorite.

Sure most of the world's best tennis players have been concentrating their efforts elsewhere, but it doesn't make these guys' efforts at some less heralded events this week any less important. If they can thrive while all the attention is being paid elsewhere, they might be in good shape once the pressure is back on. And as they get to the top of their games again, it could shape the rest of their seasons in a much better way.

A Long Time Coming

The last few years have been a long slog for a couple players on Tour. Whether they've had flashes of brilliance, fought to stay among the elite or battled back from injury, the trophy shelf remained fairly empty. But with some hard hitting performances over the last week, that all changed.

Robin Haase has really come a long way over the last year. He began 2010 ranked just inside the top five hundred, but put together some nice wins to rise into the double digits by December. In the course of twelve months, he took Nicolas Almagro to five sets at Roland Garros and built a two-to-one set lead on Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but it wasn't until this year that the twenty-four year old began to really hit his stride. He made the third round at two Majors and was within a few spots of his career high ranking before he even came to Kitzbuhel, Austria.

Unseeded at the Bet-at-Home Cup, the Dutchman wasn't dealt the easiest draw, facing red-hot Feliciano Lopez in the second round and sixth-seeded Andreas Seppi a match later. Though he was spared the ordeal of meeting veteran champion Juan Ignacio Chela in his first ever final, he nevertheless got a challenge from former #22 Albert Montanes in the championship match. The Spaniard had won all five of his previous titles on clay and, though he'd struggled in recent months, was clearly the more experienced player on Saturday.

But it didn't faze Haase. After allowing his opponent to draw even and force a third set, the underdog came up with the goods in the decider to secure the win in just over two hours. Now in the top fifty, he'll start his summer hardcourt season on a high note, and if he harnesses his momentum well, we could see big things from him.

Radek Stepanek was a little more used to the limelight. Ranked in the top ten more than five years ago, he'd fallen into the low double digits when illness kept him out of play most of the year. He hadn't played a final since Brisbane last year and hadn't won one for almost a year before that. He'd showed some signs of getting back on track this year, beating Mardy Fish Down Under and taking a set from Nadal at Queen's Club, but he was still titleless until he came to Washington, DC.

Though he'd received first round byes in the U.S. capital the last three times he'd appeared, he'd never gotten out of the third round. This year, however, he was unseeded, and apparently it served him well. Most of his road was cleared for him -- would-be second round opponent Fish pulled out of the tournament with a heel injury and last year's runner-up Marcos Baghdatis was eliminated on Friday -- but he was impressive against Fernando Verdasco in the quarters and never faced a break point against Gael Monfils in the final. In just over ninety minutes he'd claimed his biggest title since 2006 and secured himself a spot back in the top thirty. Not bad for a week's work.

On the other side of the country, Aggie Radwanska was doing her best to get her name back on people's minds. Once a top-ten player, she's spent most of the last four years in the top twenty but hasn't won a Tour title since 2008. But she's one of the most consistent players on the circuit and is routinely still around the latter parts of tournaments. She came a stone's throw from taking the title in Carlsbad last year, and fought through foot surgery late in the fall to keep herself in the game in 2011.

Aggie dealt out bagel sets to both Elena Baltacha and Christina McHale -- to whom she only dropped one game -- early in her draw, but was challenged in her later rounds. Daniela Hantuchova scored a 6-0 lead in the quarters before eventually bowing to the twenty-two year old and feisty second seed Andrea Petkovic put up a heck of a fight against both Radwanska and her own illnesses before ceding the spot in the final. Against top-seeded Vera Zvonareva on Sunday she battled a nagging shoulder injury and held serve the entire match, earning her fourth win over a top-ten player this year and finally hoisting the winner's trophy again.

All these players have swung momentum back on their side, and whether they're capturing their first title or their first title in years they've at the very least captured the attention of their competition. It's great to see all their hard work and perseverance ultimately rewarded, and if they keep it up, there should be many more spoils to these winners.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

I've been writing about numbers for almost fifteen years, and one thing I've learned is that you can make data say anything you want it to, depending on how you look at things -- and that doesn't make it any more predictive of an outcome.

And that's especially true in sports. How many times have you heard how Team A has never beaten Team B when trailing at the half, on the road, in January, when it's below forty degrees in Houston? Or that Player One has a perfect record against Player Two in games played in the southern hemisphere before noon Pacific Time? Add enough caveats -- no matter how ridiculous -- to an assumption, and you can make a case for any result.

Statistics certainly have the ability to skew our perception, and they don't always tell the true story of how a battle was fought. And all you have to do is look at a couple matches at this year's Australian Open. There are some simple incongruities -- David Nalbandian and Lleyton Hewitt actually scored an equal number of points in their almost-five hour slugfest, while Ivo Karlovic again found a way to lose a match when out-acing his opponent, forty-eight to ten. But it can get more complicated than that.

Dominika Cibulkova lost her third round to top-seeded Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets, but it was the teeny Slovak who came out the aggressor. She barreled off thirty-one winners against the world #1, who only scored eleven of her own. She was a little sloppy -- over forty unforced errors, almost four times Caro's -- but that's more an indication of the chances she took versus a highly favored opponent. While Wozniacki seemed content to knock balls back over the net, it was Cibulkova who came up with the risky, more imaginative play, and maybe should have won the match.

Robin Haase didn't last quite as long, but for the first half against veteran Andy Roddick, you might have thought you were witnessing an upset. The twenty-three year old Dutchman took control early, trapping his opponent at the net and allowing no break chances in the opening set. He won nearly eighty percent of his first serves and about half of Andy's. In the second he kept it close -- the two were equal on both winners and errors, and neither made a dent on the other's serve. When Roddick won that in a tiebreak, though, it was all over for Haase, and he dropped the next two sets in about an hour.

And then you have the surprising match between last year's runner-up Justine Henin and one-time French Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova. The Russian had a surprisingly poor 2-16 record against her third-round opponent over their eight-plus year history and had never beaten her at a Slam -- in fact her only two wins came in tight three setters. And as one of my friends pointed out, Henin had only lost at the Australian Open to players ranked -- either at the time or at some point -- #1 in the world, and Kuzey topped out at #2.

But it was Sveta who came out firing this time. Though she made slightly fewer errors and a handful more winners, she was cleaner when it counted. She stayed strong after losing a break-lead in the second set and after failing to serve it out. She saved set points and withstood faster serves, and after two hours, Kuznetsova was the one left standing. Maybe she is heading for the #1 ranking...

So what can we learn from all this? Well for one thing, numbers -- whether stats, scorelines or match length -- clearly don't tell the whole story. And for another, past performance is no indication of future results. That's not to say that keeping and monitoring such minute records doesn't have it's place -- but it certainly can't beat watching the darn games!