The Big Fight

Okay, I realize that most eyes will be trained on one particular bout in Vegas tonight, but the face-off between Pacquiao and Mayweather isn't the only one worth mentioning these days. And for a couple players contesting this weekend's championships, the opportunity is just as great.

Tomorrow's final in Munich pits two players who've had very different seasons so far against each other. Top seeded Andy Murray, fresh off his second final of the year in Miami, is back at #3 in the world and finally seems in contention again at the big events. Veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber, on the other hand, was struggling to win many matches at all -- he's lost three opening round matches, all to players outside the top fifty, and before this week had a losing record on the year. He's been able to turn things around this week though, taking out Bucharest runner-up Jiri Vesely in his first round and then notching an upset over David Goffin in the quarters. He'll certainly be the underdog against the Scot on Sunday, with his only win coming more than five years ago -- but he does, surprisingly, have a chance. He took a set off Murray a few weeks ago in Indian Wells, and pushed him for four long hours at Roland Garros just last year, barely losing 12-10 in the fifth. If he can find that game again, he just might be able to capitalize on this chance to turn his season around.

The German's run in his homeland may have been unexpected, but the draw in Estoril shook out even less predictably, with both top seeds falling in their opening rounds. Instead Richard Gasquet, a little quiet this year despite a title in Montpellier, took out an on-the-rebound Nicolas Almagro and finally ended the impressive win streak of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the semis. And young Australian Nick Kyrgios, this year's Cinderella in Melbourne, managed his way to the first ATP final of his career. He hasn't had to face any real challenge though -- both Feliciano Lopez and Gilles Muller were eliminated before he had to meet them -- so tomorrow's match will be his be the first test he has all week. And with the specter of his maiden trophy looming over him the pressure will surely be on -- but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come out on top this time, and there's no telling what that could lead to for the rest of his season.

There's a little more experience on the court in Istanbul, though, where world #2 Roger Federer will be going for his awe-inspiring eighty-fifth career title. Having already picked up two crowns this year, he's rebounded nicely from an early loss in Monte Carlo and, despite challenges from Daniel Gimeno Traver and even Challenger heavyweight Diego Schwartzman, made good on his top spot in Turkey. The bigger surprise happened in the bottom half of the draw where wholly under-appreciated Pablo Cuevas stunned second seed Grigor Dimitrov in Saturday's semi. The Uruguayan my be flying way under the radar, but he has won the last three finals he's contested, and with an impressive 10-4 record on clay this year, he might be more at home on this surface than his opponent. It's always a tough ask to try to beat Roger, of course, but Cuevas has been slowly making a name for himself too and might just have the motivation to pull off what would easily be the biggest win of his career.

The ladies, meanwhile, have already crowned their champions, but even these favorites were given some unexpected challenges. At the reinstated Prague Open the upsets started early and kept going all week long -- second seed Lucie Safarova was eliminated by world #65 Tereza Smitkova in her opener while Svetlana Kuznetsova, Alizé Cornet and Belinda Bencic all fell quickly after. Only Karolina Pliskova was able to live up to expectations, surviving some early challenges to make her eighth final in eighteen months. The big surprise though was the performance of Lucie Hradecka, mostly known as a doubles star, but after stunning Ana Ivanovic in Melbourne, really making a name for herself on the singles circuit too. She ousted former stars like Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Klara Koukalova on her way to the final, and even took the opening set off Pliskova in the championship match. She did lose eventually, but may have given herself the confidence she needs to really break out in the solo game this year.

There were surprises too in Marrakech where top seed Garbiñe Muguruza and red-hot Timea Bacsinszky both lost earlier than they would have liked. Instead a different Timea -- Hungary's Babos, who made a stellar run to a title in Monterrey more than three year ago -- took out Mona Barthel, Flavia Pennetta and giant-killer Kristina Mladenovic, marking the first time all year she'd won more than one main draw match at a single event. She would ultimately face off against fourth seed Elina Svitolina -- the former French Open Girls' champion has been slogging through the WTA Tour, picking up a couple titles in Baku and even taking a set off Serena Williams Down Under. Babos put up a fight against the heavy favorite, too, dropping the first set in a squeaker and pushing the Ukranian to a tiebreak for the second. It may not have been the result she wanted, but after years spent languishing in the rankings, it might finally be the push she needs to make a real move into the elite.

Not all of this weekend's finalists will come out as winners, of course, but for the underdogs, especially, who were able to deliver a couple big blows to their opponents all week long, they might have just put themselves on the road to bigger and better things the rest of the season. And maybe sometime soon they'll be the ones handing out the knock out punches.

Czech Mate: Fed Cup Final Round-Up

There was plenty of room for drama at this weekend's Fed Cup final, with two recent powerhouse teams going head-to-head for the trophy. But, even with a solid slate of top-twenty players and recent titleists on the German team, the Czechs barreled through their opponents, picking up their third championship in four years, and asserting themselves as a real force in tennis.

Wimbledon winner Petra Kvitova opened the final tie against Sofia champion Andrea Petkovic on Saturday, but even with her higher ranking, this promised to be a close match. Petko had climbed back to her highest ranking in three years, picked up a trio of trophies on the season, and, with a 4-3 career record against the Czech, certainly knew how to get the better of her. But Kvitova came out swinging, keeping the German on the baseline while she rushed the net -- she broke serve five times and fired off twenty-five winners during the match, pushing her team to an early lead. Germany had a good shot at evening the score, though, as they pitted their top player Angelique Kerber, an alternate for the year-end final in Singapore, against Lucie Safarova, whose biggest accomplishment to date was a semifinal showing at the All England Club. But the world #16 was able to surprise again -- she took advantage of some weak serving by the four-time runner-up this season to notch her third top-ten win of the year.

With the Czechs taking a dominant 2-0 lead into Day Two, it was up to Kerber again to keep her team -- playing in their first Fed Cup final since 1992 -- alive, and she very nearly did it. Her first set against Kvitova lasted well over an hour and eventually went to a tiebreak, and though she did ultimately succumb, Kerber roared back in the second to give the Germans their first set win of the tie. It was too little, too late, though, as Kvitova stayed tougher in the dramatic decider, but with just four points separating the two women, this rubber really could have gone either way. The Germans did finally get on the board, with Sabine Lisicki and Julia Goerges teaming up to score a surprising win over long-time doubles champs Andrea Hlavackova and Lucie Hradecka, but the 3-1 score was just enough to give the Czechs the win and rise back to the winners' circle they occupied just two years ago.

With so many of the tennis headlines this year dominated by the likes of Serena Williams, Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova, it's easy to have lost sight of the lower-profile Czechs. But with three of the five Fed Cup titles this decade going to the same country, it's hard to ignore their consistency and strength of their team. And I wouldn't be surprised if they make an even bigger name for themselves in the months to come.

A New World: Fed Cup Final Preview

Twenty years ago the two countries contesting this year's Fed Cup didn't even exist. Part of an Eastern Europe undergoing serious revolutions in the early nineties, they were making the biggest headlines far from the tennis court. But the defending champion Czechs and the barely initiated Serbs, playing for just the second time in the World Group, sure have come a long way in the past two decades, and the battle they put on this weekend could be one for the history books.

The Czech Singles

The singles rubbers could provide fireworks from the start -- both teams come with some top-grade talent, but there are questions over everyone's heads. Petra Kvitova is coming off her second trip to the WTA Championships, but the 2011 winner had to pull out after one round robin match in Istanbul with a viral illness. She had a somewhat slower start to this season -- at this time last year she was a stone's throw from the #1 ranking, these days she's just within the top ten. Still, with two titles this year and a greatly improved hardcourt record, she's easily the most accomplished of the bunch. She doesn't have a lot of history against her opponents, but she has won both matches she's played against the Serb stars in the past two years and might be the Czechs best chance to get on the board early.

Lucie Safarova has had a slightly more volatile year. She began 2012 with wins over Vera Zvonareva, Caroline Wozniacki and Sam Stosur, and cracked the top twenty for the first time in her career back in August after reaching the Montreal semifinal. She's now at a career-high #17 ranking, but the twenty-five year old won only one match at her last three events and has notched eleven opening round losses this year. She also hasn't been the most clutch Fed Cup player for the Czechs, winning just six of ten rubbers she's played, and with a 4-7 record against her opponents it's going to be hard to turn that momentum around.

The Serbian Singles

The Serbs aren't without their own challenges, though, but Ana Ivanovic will be out to prove the comeback she's put together the last three year is worth some consideration. The former #1 hasn't won a title all year, but she did reach her first Major quarterfinal since 2008 and score victories over Caroline Wozniacki and Marion Bartoli in Indian Wells. Having almost halved her ranking in the past twelve months, she's starting to look like the player we know she can be -- she's only lost to three players out of the top fifty this year, and one of those was Venus Williams, so she's not putting up many "embarrassing" losses anymore. Still, it would be nice to see her perform more consistently against the top ten, and maybe score a victory or two against the biggest hitters.

Such consistency is exactly what Jelena Jankovic seems to be lacking these days. Another former top-ranked player, the twenty-seven year old has struggled to hold onto leads this year and squandered match points more than a few times during the season. She hasn't won a trophy in over two years and, while she made a couple finals this year, she lost both pretty handily and failed to make much of a dent at any of the Majors. Her only victory over a player ranked higher than her this year -- then-#5 Sam Stosur in Dubai -- came all the way back in February, and the vast majority of her losses since then have been to players ranked lower than her. On the plus side -- admittedly a small one -- she is 5-2 against the Czechs in singles and holds an impressive 27-7 career history in Fed Cup singles rubbers, so experience might give her and her team a lift. They might need it.

The Doubles Rubber

With the singles matches this weekend largely up for grabs, the doubles action takes on some added importance, and experience looks to be squarely on the side of the Czechs. Andrea Hlavackova and Lucie Hradecka have both put in some solid singles performances this year, but together they've really shined. Runners-up at Wimbledon, the U.S. Open and the WTA Championships this year, they've also won four Tour titles and Olympic Silver. Comparatively the likely pairing of Bojana Jovanovski and Aleksandra Krunic is hugely untested. If the championship comes down to this rubber, odds certainly favor a repeat of last year, so the Serbs will certainly want to make a statement early, and hope they can wrap things up before it gets too heated.

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With so much depth on the Czech team, it seems like the defending champions have the slight advantage in this weekend's play. But if the leaders on the Serbian team play to their potential, they could easily tip the entire apple cart. And while such a revolution may be nothing compared to what these countries have endured in the past, it could set the stage for a new era in their tennis histories.

Feeling Blue

By now you've all heard the complaints. The strange blue clay of Madrid is slippery, it's hard to see the ball fly, it's just a way for the tournament to sell out for a sponsor, it looks like a Smurfing pile of Smurf. But when you see the surface claim arguably the best clay court player of all time as a victim -- well then, then, you really have something to complain about.

Earlier today Rafael Nadal, who fell in the final here last year to Novak Djokovic, was handed an even more surprising loss. Despite putting on one of the best shows of 2009, Fernando Verdasco had won just four sets off the former world #1 in their previous thirteen meetings. But Nadal's fellow Spaniard came out swinging, capitalizing on both his break chances in the opening set and creating a lead for the first time on the surface. Nadal fought back, though, and after forcing a third set had a couple chances to serve out that match. But Verdasco kept his cool -- he rattled off five straight games and avoided a late rally by his compatriot, and after more than three hours sealed what might be the biggest win of his career.

It was Nadal's earliest loss on the surface in eight years, and he wasn't the only casualty of the blue clay. Eighth seeded John Isner fell in straight sets to former top-ten player Marin Cilic, and Marion Bartoli lost a long struggle to Sorana Cirstea in her opener. Alexandr Dolgopolov, who'd put up a mediocre 12-9 record on the year so far, pulled off an impressive win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Petra Kvitova, after winning her first match handily, was handed an equally one-sided defeat a round later.

But while these players' moods may reflect the color of the courts, not everyone is upset. And the results so far this week suggest anyone can take advantage of the spell the clay casts.

Verdasco had fallen out of the top twenty a few weeks ago, but he may have turned his year around with Thursday's win. He should be careful his hangover doesn't impede his next match, though -- he has a decent record on the surface against Tomas Berdych, his opponent on Friday, and if he stays strong he could make a run even further in his homeland. And Janko Tipsarevic, coming off a super-successful end to 2011, has won just two matches for each he's lost this year. He'll have to bring his A-game against countryman Djokovic on Friday, but he's beaten him before and could just rattle the defending champ.

Not surprisingly, the ladies have seen a few more upsets along the way, but while many of the favorites are still alive, the pressure will be on in the quarterfinals. Aggie Radwanska, who's still only lost to world #1 Victoria Azarenka this year, will face qualifier Varvara Lepchenko on Friday -- the Uzbek native has dispatched Shahar Peer and Francesca Schiavone already, so she's playing with some confidence. It'll be a tall order, but momentum may be on her side. And Lucie Hradecka, who also made it through the qualifying rounds, has similarly beaten three higher-ranked players, including Kvitova. She'll again be the underdog against Sam Stosur in the next round, but the Czech's won a doubles crown at Roland Garros -- a couple more singles wins may not be that far behind.

But perhaps the player with the biggest opportunity is David Ferrer, a clay court specialist coming off a run to the final in Barcelona. The world #6 faces 2009 titleist Roger Federer next, and though he's never beaten him in twelve tries, Thursday's results could give Ferrer some confidence. After saving match points against Nicolas Almagro today, he's shown he has more than a little fight in him, and if he catches King Fed a little off-footed, like Verdasco before him, he too might be able to score that elusive first win.

Who knows if the underdogs remaining will be able to pull off the upsets? But if even a couple of them do, you can be sure the complaints from the favorites will grow louder. The blue courts of Madrid may ultimately not be long-lived, but they have already seemed to impact. Whether it's for this event -- or for the rest of the season -- we have yet to see.

In the meantime, I'll go back to a normal font -- I don't know first hand how hard it is to find the ball in this sea of blue, but this post is giving me a headache.

Fed Cup Final: A Turning Point?

This weekend plays host to what could be a very interesting Fed Cup championship -- both squads, with plenty of power and lots of talent, have a real shot at winning the trophy, and though the tide may have shifted ever so slightly, it's too early to count anyone out.

It would seem history favors one side -- Russia won four Fed Cup titles in the last decade, while the Czechs haven't hoisted the trophy since becoming an independent country. The Russians made it here with a one-sided drubbing of the defending champion Italians back in April, and the Czechs advanced by the skin of their teeth over Belgium, securing the win only with a gutsy doubles victory.

But the team is playing without some of its brightest stars -- still-hobbled Maria Sharapova was left off the roster, while world #7 Vera Zvonareva was forced to pull out due to a shoulder injury sustained at the Kremlin Cup. Strangely the next highest-ranked player on their list, #15 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, was relegated to the doubles rubber, leaving Maria Kirilenko -- incidentally a runner-up in doubles at the Australian Open this year -- and veteran Svetlana Kuznetsova to hold up the fort in the early rounds.

In the meantime, the easy-to-overlook Czechs have momentum on their side in a big way. Wimbledon and Istanbul champ Petra Kvitova has dominated the Tour recently, winning her last two tournaments and climbing to #2 in the world. And the doubles pairing of Lucie Hradecka (#15 in the discipline) and Kveta Peschke (#2) will be hard to beat -- if the match goes to a deciding rubber, the advantage should be with the first-time finalists.

But, as always, it won't be quite as easy as that.

Kvitova can have periods of spotty play -- she lost in three straight first rounds after her title in Paris and only won two matches during the summer hardcourt season. She's also lost her only two matches against Kirilenko, admittedly back in 2009, and never faced Kuznetsova. MaKiri, on the other hand, is having a nice fall -- she twice beat her U.S. Open vanquisher Sam Stosur and made at least the quarters of the three events she's played out. And Zvonareva's replacement, Elena Vesnina, has three doubles titles this year herself -- and a runner's-up trophy from Roland Garros. Of course, Lucie Safarova could become a secret weapon on the Czech side, while the roller coaster of Kuznetsova could do the opposite for the Russians.

It would mean a lot for the Czechs to take the title. The growing and developing squad would get a real boost if they can pull off the upset of the long-dominant Russia. But it clearly won't be an easy task -- the Russians will be hungry to return to the winners' podium and could bring the firepower to do it. One thing's certain though -- whoever comes out on top will have earned it.

Back At It

It's been a while since either of the ladies who claimed trophies on clay this weekend were standing at the top of the champion's ring. But with one reclaiming a title that was all but stolen from her last year and another marking a pretty impressive record, both victories were more important than they might originally seem.

The draw at the Barcelona Ladies Open was opened at the get-go, with only two seeded players making it out of the second round. With little in her way then, 2009 champion and surprise 2010 runner-up Roberta Vinci was able to take advantage. Though she's lost every match she's played since Dubai in February, she found a way to turn around her luck and beat former top-thirty players like Virginie Razzano and Yaroslava Shvedova on her way to the finals.

There she met an impressive Lucie Hradecka who'd battled her way past more than a couple favorites to make her first final since 2009. But she must have been a little tired out by the time Saturday rolled around. After losing the first set to the unseeded Czech, Vinci won five games in a row to take the second and only dropped two more before finally claiming the title. It was her fourth on Tour, but the only one she's won twice, making the Italian a bit of a force in Spain.

A little further west in Portugal we saw a similar story unfold in the bracket, but in Estoril not a single seed got to the semis. More impressive, the two finalists -- veteran Anabel Medina Garrigues and journeywoman Kristina Barrois -- didn't drop a set on their road to Saturday's match. Anabel, an uber-decorated doubles champion, saw her ranking plummet last year and was close to falling into triple digits early in 2011 thanks to a ten-match losing streak. But with wins over eighth seeded Greta Arn and world #34 Klara Zakopalova in Portugal she finally seemed to be gaining her footing.

The German Barrois had been similarly unstoppable on the way to her second Tour final, ending the efforts of top seed Alisa Kleybanova in the quarters and Elena Vesnina the round before. But again the more experienced Spaniard was able to triumph when it counted -- winning nearly three of every four first serve points and breaking her opponent six times, Medina Garrigues claimed her tenth career title in just over an hour. More importantly it was her ninth on clay, tying her with Venus Williams for the most of any active player -- not bad for a player who'd been so under the radar for the better part of the last few years.

Of course these champions will only face tougher tests down the road as they make their way to Roland Garros, but they've made pretty loud statements this week, and a couple more matches in their favor and they certainly could cause some upsets in the next few weeks.

After all, this is the time of year when nothing is certain.

No Case for the Defense

The first couple days of action this week hasn't been all that encouraging for the players trying to defend titles on the European clay courts. Neither Sam Querrey nor Francesca Schiavone showed up to even try reclaiming crowns in Belgrade or Barcelona, respectively, and Albert Montanes traded up slightly from Estoril to play with some bigger guns in Serbia.

The few year-ago champions left who tried to extend their streaks didn't fare very well either -- Mikhail Youzhny, the top seed in Munich struggled in his first round before falling in a heart-breaker to Phillipp Petzschner in the third and Australian Open standout Anastasija Sevastova squandered her opening match lead in Portugal, making an early exit at the only event she's ever won.

So with last year's titleholders all out of the picture, those remaining might have a clearer shot at capturing the trophy, and a couple have a pretty good shot at causing a stir.

The absence of Querrey might not have too much meaning at the Serbian Open, where 2009 champion Novak Djokovic is the top seed. This is his tournament in so many ways -- he actually owns it -- and though he sat out the first two weeks of clay court season with knee troubles, he hit the dirt running with a straight set win over qualifier Adrian Unger in his second round. Now loss-less in his twenty-five matches this year, he's looking good to win an astounding fifth trophy in 2011, and that should remind everyone he's not just a hardcourt force.

The draw for the ladies in Barcelona has opened up quite a bit more -- with early defeats of Marion Bartoli and Alexandra Dulgheru, only two seeds made it to the quarterfinals. Lucie Hradecka, who fell out of the top hundred after a wrist injury last year, has been slowly clawing her way up the rankings. Her straight set victories over Iveta Benesova and Gisela Dulko prove she can hit, and her win earlier on Thursday earned her her first Tour semifinal since July. And Pattaya City finalist Sara Errani is one of those spunky players who's just screaming to break out -- she dropped just a handful of games in her first two rounds and on Thursday stopped Alberta Brianti's run dead in its tracks.

Over in Munich we saw a similar seed-dopping, but a few others still have managed to squeak through. Marin Cilic, whose efforts to climb into the top ten have come in fits and starts, reached the quarters with a win over Horacio Zeballos. And Nikolay Davydenko was able to continue his comeback with a three-set win over Julian Reister on Thursday. But perhaps the player with the best potential this week is Potito Starace -- after a disappointing runner-up finish in Casablanca, he might be ready to make a statement here.

Portugal has been the site of a few surprises as well, with the three top seeds all losing on Thursday. Jarmila Gajdosova (formerly Groth) proved she was too strong to let personal problems get in the way of her tennis, but ultimately surrendered a big lead in the quarters, and Klara Zakopalova, who'd battled a few challenges all week also fell. I've been most impressed by of Kristina Barrois, a quarterfinalist last week in Stuttgart. She took out Elena Vesnina earlier and today bested top seed Alisa Kleybanova to reach the final four -- with her next match against Johanna Larsson, I wouldn't be surprised to see her go even further.

The men in Estoril have had a little more luck so far -- Robin Soderling looked solid in his opener and even recently spotty Fernando Verdasco was impressive early. But Milos Raonic, trying to prove he's not just a hard-court player, seems to be getting his footing on clay, and Thomaz Bellucci, who often delivers his best performances on the surface, has fought his way to the quarters and should be able to keep it up at least a little while longer.

These guys and gals have a great opportunity to make a mark on their draws this week. They better take the chance now, as the road to a title will only get more difficult as we head to the next few Masters events of the season. But the way they're playing, they just might be able to cause some even bigger upsets down the road.

Early Challenges

A little less than one round is in the books for the players at Indian Wells, and though the seeds in both men's and women's draws were given the privilege of first-match byes, results already recorded suggest difficulties could be in store for some in their openers.

Qualifier Alize Cornet, once ranked as high as #11 in the world, got past veteran Patty Schnyder on Wednesday and will face Tsvetana Pironkova next. The surprise semifinalist at Wimbledon last year will be the on-paper favorite, but she hasn't gotten past the second round at any tournament since -- I might expect her to suffer another upset if Cornet plays to her potential. And Lucie Hradecka, who's been playing a lot of tennis recently and has cut her ranking by about thirty spots this year, took out Kirsten Flipkens in straight sets earlier today. She might just have enough momentum to take out Alexandra Dulgheru in the next round -- though certainly talented, the young Romanian is out of practice, missing much of the fall's action with injury and illness and only winning a single match in 2011.

But the one star most at risk could be former #1 Ana Ivanovic. Having successfully clawed her way back from the brink at the end of last year, she suffered an abdominal injury at Hopman Cup and hasn't been playing at the top of her game since. And with a second round date with uber-vet Kimiko Date Krumm, she must be nervous. The perennially young forty-year-old may not be having the best year, but she's had wins over Dinara Safina, Maria Sharapova and Sam Stosur in the last twelve months and took Ivanovic to three exciting sets in the Bali semis. Kimiko is one of those players you can't help but root for -- combine that with her sheer determination, and she could cause some fireworks.

The men just began their first rounds on Thursday, so far fewer have reserved their spaces in the second round as of yet. But qualifier Somdev Devvarman, just a week off his career high ranking, made a strong statement in his Indian Wells Debut. After advancing to the finals in Johannesburg and notching India it's only point in their first round of Davis Cup play, he followed up with a solid win over recent standout Adrian Mannarino. Next up he'll face Marcos Baghdatis, who's been battling niggling injuries all year. The Cypriot has the win in the pair's only previous meeting, but if he's not fully recovered, there could be trouble.

But the more explosive second round may come in the form of a rematch of last year's Los Angeles semifinal. Janko Tipsarevic was pretty vocal about his loss to eventual champion Sam Querrey that summer, begrudging the fact that he should have won that match -- he got revenge, of course, a few weeks later in Washington, and Querrey has never played the same again. These days it's the colorful Serb that's having more success, and after he earned the right to face his rival again he could keep momentum on his side.

Having a high seeding at the big tournaments is never a guarantee of success, and all these guys may be in danger given the way their early opponents are playing. That's not to say that all of them will be on the next plane out of the desert, but it could mean some very exciting matches in the days before things get really serious!