Make or Break

Let's talk for a minute about just how important the Mutua Madrid Open has become to the course of the tennis year.

Since the tournament shifted to clay two years ago there has seemed to be a shift in its significance. Now held in the first half of the year, before the second Major -- as opposed to the hardcourt event that had been contested in October -- there's now a lot more game to be played before the season is up. And even if the surface accounts for a relatively small portion of the year, past winners have really kicked themselves into high gear after tasting victory here.

In 2009 Roger Federer had been having an unusually non-prolific year. Though he had made at least the semis of four of the five tournaments he'd played, he hadn't won a title, losing a grueling final in Melbourne to Rafael Nadal. But once he stunned the Clay Court King in the Madrid things began to look up -- he completed a career Grand Slam a few weeks later with a victory in Paris, broke the record for Major titles and reclaimed the #1 ranking he'd given up for nearly a year. Not a bad way to turn things around.

Nadal pulled off a similar feat last year. After spending the first few months of the year recovering from injury, he finally got back his mojo on the clay and dethroned the defending champion in Madrid with a first class performance. He followed up his own Masters-title record setting by taking back the title in Roland Garros, extending his run at Wimbledon and shocking the world when he completed his own Grand Slam in New York. Back at the top of the rankings he'd set the stage to be the man to beat in 2011.

Of course, that was before Novak Djokovic came along. Famously undefeated this year, I think most of us expected his miraculous streak would end this week when he was slated to finally meet Nadal on clay. Both advanced with little drama to the final -- the third time they were meeting with a championship on the line this year -- but most predicted a different result. Novak had never beaten Rafa on the dirt, much less in a clay court title bout, and surely the Spaniard would show him who was boss, especially in his homeland.

But before we could blink an eye, Djokovic was off to a 4-0 lead. Rafa got one break back, even denying the Serb when he tried to serve out the set and pulling even. But when Nadal was serving for a tiebreak, Nole broke him at love and never looked back. Despite being broken to start the second set -- thanks in part to a fabulous between-the-legs lob that just fell inside Djokovic's court -- he quickly regained composure, won the next game and broke again a few later to stun the crowd and claim his astonishing sixth crown of the year.

So with all the talk over just how long Djokovic's streak can last, past precedent seems to suggest there are a couple more wins left in him. And if/when he does lose a match along the way, he shouldn't be worried -- he certainly looks on track to take home another Major or two this year. And several more in the years to come.



Ironically, the Madrid Open has not set the same precedent for the women. Since coming here in 2009, both winners Dinara Safina and Aravane Rezai have subsequently faltered in the months that followed. Safina put on a dismal showing at the '09 French Open final and has since been largely sidelined or ineffective due to injury. Rezai, who'd shocked Venus Williams in last year's final, hasn't won more than a single match at any event since last July.

I certainly hope the same fate doesn't befall Petra Kvitova, who earlier today smashed her way to the biggest title of her young career. Barely seeded at the event, the top-ranked Czech woman followed a win over world #2 Vera Zvonareva by beating Australian Open finalist Na Li in the semis. On Sunday against Victoria Azarenka -- who's been more than impressive in securing two titles of her own this year -- she was similarly impressive. After losing a three game lead in the first set, she held strong in the breaker to get the lead. The pair traded serves in the second, but Kvitova finally secured a lead at 4-3 she never surrendered. Firing off forty aces to just ten from Vika, the brand new world #10 certainly has what it takes to be at the top -- and I'm confident she even has what it takes to stay there.



The two new champions in Madrid this week have created huge opportunities for themselves over the last few days -- having now beaten some of the strongest and most dominant players on a very tricky surface, they have clearly set the stage not just for Roland Garros, but for the rest of the year. Whether their streaks end or their fortunes turn of course has yet to be determined, but if they can keep it up, we'll be talking about them both for a long time to come.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

With only two days of play in the books for the 2011 Australian Open, we've already gotten a glimpse of what we might expect for the rest of the tournament and -- dare I say? -- at least the next few months of the year. Some of it is encouraging, some less so -- and the rest, well, I'll be generous and hold off my final judgment for now.

The Good

Let's start with the highlights -- the top seeds all had an easy time with their first rounds. Among the top ten men, only one lost a set, and the women were similarly impressive with Kim Clijsters and Marion Bartoli both serving up double bagels.

But we saw some inspired play from others as well. More than a couple seeds -- Mardy Fish, Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -- dug themselves out of two set deficits when they were all but out of contention. And 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro made a winning start in his return to the Slams, while fellow Argentine David Nalbandian survived probably the toughest first round opponent in Lleyton Hewitt in a nearly five-hour, early morning slugfest.

For the ladies Yanina Wickmayer, stuck with a tough opener against Hobart champion Jarmila Groth, survived her first test, while Aggie Radwanska, playing uber-veteran Kimiko Date Krumm stayed strong even when the crowd, her body and her racket all seemed to be against her. And Sorana Cirstea, once ranked in the top twenty-five, won her first main draw match since Copenhagen in August by beating a tough Mirjana Lucic in straight sets.

And if you want some bright signs for the future of the sport, check out Australian wildcard Bernard Tomic, and eighteen year old who took advantage of a spotty Jeremy Chardy to make the second round. Or qualifier Simona Halep, making her main draw debut in Melbourne -- she hung in for three sets and almost two hours against veteran Anne Kremer of Luxembourg. The young Romanian may rival Serbian #3 Bojana Jovanovski for the Newcomer of the Year award.

The Bad

Of course, for every good there is a not-so-good. Ana Ivanovic didn't make it out of her first round, but it wasn't for lack of trying. She pulled out a stellar performance against a simply more aggressive, more lethal Ekaterina Makarova on Tuesday, marking her earliest exit from the Australian Open. Sure, it's tough luck for the rebuilding Ivanovic, but we shouldn't take credit away from Makarova, who earned the win on her own merit.

Marcos Baghdatis was slightly more lucky than his counterpart, but it still took him five sets to take care of world #141 Grega Zemlja. He allowed the qualifier to break him four times and barely got half of his first serves in. I know the 2006 runner-up is injured, but the way he played, and especially facing Del Potro in the next round, I'm not sure he'll make another run in Australia this year.

The Ugly

Though their performances may not have been the strongest, I'm not ready to write off Ivanovic or Baghdatis yet. I'm a little more wary of the prospects for some others, though.

I came into this Open watching Aravane Rezai closely -- the Frenchwoman kicked off 2010 with a bang, having won the Bali championships the prior season and stunning Venus Williams in the Madrid finals, but hasn't made the third round of a tournament since July. She clung to a seventeenth seed in Melbourne, but fell in the first day to Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, getting blanked in the opening set. Now with only one fourth round Major appearance in the last four years, she'll be hard-pressed to stay among the sport's elite.

And Sam Querrey may also be riding a career-high ranking, but he won only one match since the U.S. Open. He took a two-set-to-one lead on world #72 Lukasz Kubot, but failed to close out his match. After more than three hours of play, he earned the dubious honor of being the first seed to get booted, and has now lost his Melbourne opener for three straight years. It's not the best record for a man I once called the future of American tennis.

Speaking of the country's next-generation stars, Melanie Oudin has only won two Major matches since that glorious run in New York over a year ago. On Tuesday she notched her second loss in as many weeks to the Czech Republic's Klara Zakopalova. She dropped serve nine times in this most recent match, and won a measly thirty percent of her second serve points. Of course, at nineteen years of age she has plenty of time to climb back out of the hole -- but it sure would be a shame for her to have peaked so early.

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With any tournament it's a given that we'll see some upsets and a couple standouts. But it sure feels like the early matches in Australia have given us a few extras to talk about this time around. We'll see if we if the top champions can fare as well in the later rounds, or if the nascent talent can keep its momentum going.

And it sure looks like it's only getting more exciting from here.

Australian Open: First Round Matches to Watch

The first serves of the 2011 Australian Open's main draws will be hit in just a day and, as always, I feel we can expect the fireworks to start right at the get-go.

Now last year I tried to be bold and predict the players who'd get farthest in each of their quarters, but some early upsets and a few stellar Cinderella performances gave me a pretty bad record on the year. So I've decided to set my sights a little closer to kick-off and highlight a couple of opening round matches that could really set the tone for the tournament.

Some might be the site of big upsets, others could lay the foundation for a valiant comeback, while the rest may launch the careers of a couple next-generation stars. Whatever the case, I hope these matches are as fun to watch as those we've seen in the past -- and maybe provide us a bit of a glimpse into the future.

So let's get right to it.

The Men First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

The Women First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

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The Men

First Quarter

Top-seeded Rafael Nadal might have breathed a sigh of relief when he saw his section of the draw. The 2009 Melbourne champion shouldn't face any big threats in the early rounds. But elsewhere in his bracket, his colleagues may tell different stories.

World #7 and Auckland champion David Ferrer drew a resurging Jarkko Nieminen for his opener. Though they've both been around more than a decade, they've never met on the pro Tour -- the Finn won their only match at a Challenger event back in 2001. Once a top-fifteen player, Niemenen struggled with a wrist injury in '09 but started climbing out of the hole last year. He beat Gilles Simon in Hamburg and Tomas Berdych in Stockholm, but his year was highlighted by a runner's-up trophy in Bangkok. It wouldn't be out of the question to see an upset here, especially if the Spaniard is all all worn down by his title run this past week.

Elsewhere Feliciano Lopez meets Alejandro Falla, inexplicably ranked out of the top hundred, in his first match. The two are ostensibly clay court specialists, but remember that Falla was up two sets and a break against Roger Federer last year at Wimbledon, so he could be a threat on other surfaces too. He hasn't won a lot recently, but he just might surprise us here. And Michael Llodra, at his highest career ranking at thirty years of age, drew former #15 Juan Ignacio Chela to start -- in the battle of two veterans, I'm not sure I'd pick the seeded Frenchman to win.

But possibly the most intriguing match in this quarter will be between Kooyong exhibition winner Lleyton Hewitt and David Nalbandian, who took home the second place trophy in Auckland. The Australian has fallen out of the top fifty, but he's still cuts an intimidating figure in the sport. He leads the pair's head-to-head, but Nalbandian won their only match in the last five years. Given the way the Argentine has played during his comeback, I like his chances to win, but it could be a long couple sets before anything is decided.

The late-round match-to-watch: If seeds progress as they should, John Isner will meet Marin Cilic in the third round, two big men with big serves. I'm not sure either will get there -- Cilic has been struggling recently, while Isner is really only pulling out decisive wins over much-lower ranked players. But the winner of this potential match-up will at least boost his confidence for the rest of the year.

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Second Quarter

While Rafa may have been dealt an easy first week, Roger Federer may have been dealt the opposite -- he could face Sydney champion Gilles Simon, in the top ten just about a year ago, or Yen-Hsun Lu, last year a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, in the second round. Then there's the match between Mardy Fish, one of my favorites to shine at the past U.S. Open, and Victor Hanescu. The Romanian can be tricky, and if Fish isn't fully recovered from the ankle injury he suffered at the end of last year, he might have some trouble.

One match in which the chance for an upset is pretty high will be the one between Sam Querrey and Lukasz Kubot. Even though he's at an all-time career high ranking, the American has only won one match since the U.S. Open, squandering a top seed in Sydney this past week by falling in his opener. Kubot is ranked lower than anyone Sam's lost to recently, but that doesn't mean he won't set a new precedent. I'm hoping he gets it together to advance here, but I'm cautious on that prediction.

The late-round match-to-watch: Roger and Mardy are set up for a fourth round meeting, and if they both get there it would be fun to see a rematch of the Cincy finals. And if both Federer and Andy Roddick make good on their seedings, they could put forth a spectacular quarter.

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Third Quarter

Novak Djokovic leads this section of the draw and might face his first test in the second round versus big-serving Ivo Karlovic, while sixth seed Tomas Berdych may have received a pass by receiving a qualifier in the first round.

But I'll be watching young American hopeful Ryan Harrison, who received the U.S. wildcard into the tournament. He displayed some promising signs of talent in New York last year, and I'd love to see him continue that momemtum. But the eighteen-year-old drew Auckland quarterfinalist Adrian Mannarino in the first round, and we certainly know he's capable of pulling off some upsets.

The match-up between Fabio Fognini and Kei Nishikori could also set off some sparks. Fognini has been slowly climbing the ranks, while Nishikori is trying to recapture the momentum he had before an elbow injury ended his run in 2009. They've both been pushed to fifth sets, and know how to hang in when needed, but if the man from Japan can get the win, I like the tone it would set for his year.

A bigger potential for a spoiler, though, might come from Davis Cup champ Viktor Troicki and Dmitry Tursunov, another rebuilding story. Sparse action from the Russian last year pushed him out of the top five hundred, but he's capable of doing damage at his best. He played some nice matches during his Asia circuit in 2010, and if Troicki's final run in Sydney this past week left him burnt out, it could present an opportunity for Tursunov to pounce.

The late-round match-to-watch: Nikolay Davydenko is seeded well below his talent level and, when playing at his best, he's far better than most of the men in his part of the draw. He might set up a quarterfinal with Djokovic that could hold a few surprises.

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Fourth Quarter

Robin Soderling and Andy Murray have been trading off the #4 and #5 ranking the in sport for the past few months, so it's only fitting they end up in the same quarter in Melbourne. Though they both may get a few challenges from their early round opponents, neither should have too much trouble advancing.

I'm not sure the same can be said for thirteenth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who'll face an under-ranked Phillipp Petzschner for the second round. Another pair who've only met once in the Challengers, they could spend a long first day on the court. Tsonga made a nice run to the semis in Doha, so he seems to be back in playing shape, but the German has been known to take advantage of his opponents in the past and may not let the on-paper favorite get that far.

And Ernests Gulbis, who played well against Nadal in Doha and made the semis in Sydney, is one of those feisty up-and-comers who is just begging for a chance to impress at a Major. He'll first have to get through Benjamin Becker, a tricky player who has beaten higher ranks -- Nikolay Davydenko in Halle, Fernando Verdasco in Brisbane -- so it might not be the easiest walk in Melbourne Park. I'm not entirely encouraged by the Latvian's display of frustration at losing the lead against Gilles Simon this past week, but I'd like to see him really show what he's got on a big stage.

The late-round match-to-watch: 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro may have his comeback attempt thwarted early, as he has a second round date with Marcos Baghdatis. But the 2006 runner-up from Cyprus pulled out of Sydney with a groin injury, and if he's not up to snuff, it may work in the Argentine's favor.

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The Women

First Quarter

If you're looking for first round upsets, this might be the quarter for them. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki drew top-ranked doubles player Gisela Dulko for her opener, while Hobart champion Jarmila Groth gets Auckland runner-up and twenty-first seed Yanina Wickmayer. I'm not sure the on-paper favorites will get out of either of those matches, though I'd love at least Caroline to prove me wrong.

I'll also be watching for follow-through from Dominika Cibulkova, who pulled off the upset of her young career when she beat Wozniacki handily in the second round of Sydney. She drew Angelique Kerber, who she's beaten in their only previous meeting. But the German defeated higher-ranked players throughout the back half of last year -- Shahar Peer at Wimbledon, Aggie Radwanska in Beijing, Daniela Hantuchova in Luxembourg -- so she might be able to handle the diminutive Slovak, who can be spotty if she loses focus.

The late-round match-to-watch: I don't know that we'd reach this point, but if the scores follow the seedings, last year's runner-up Justine Henin would face French Open titleist Francesca Schiavone for the quarterfinals. It could be fun to watch a grudge match between the four-time Roland Garros champ and the woman who took her place.

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Second Quarter

Vera Zvonareva held on to the second seed -- and ranking -- by the slimmest of margins coming into the Australian Open, and she wasn't rewarded with an easy draw. She could face Sydney stand-out Bojana Jovanovski in the second round and any one of a host of potential threats -- Melanie Oudin, Klara Zakopalova, Lucie Safarova -- in the third.

More immediately, I'll be watching the early progress of top-ranked teenager Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and last year's quarterfinalist Maria Kirilenko, both in this section. Pavs is the youngest seeded player in Melbourne, and though she retired from Hobart, it came on the heels of a semifinal run in Brisbane. And Kirilenko's 2010 performance in Melbourne launched her into the top echelons of the sport for the remainder of the year. Both will want to kick off their Major campaign on a good note and prove recent results were no fluke.

And I continue to root for the return of Anna Chakvetadze, who's pitted against Olga Govortsova in her first round. Anna's been ranked as high as #5 in the world and made the quarters in Australia back in 2007, but she's only won three Grand Slam matches in the last two years. If she's serious about reestablishing herself, she'll need to win at least a couple here.

The late-round match-to-watch: Fifth seed Sam Stosur didn't have the best start to the year, and with a potential third round match against Brisbane titleist Petra Kvitova -- who won their only previous meeting, albeit when neither was playing at her best -- she might be challenged to improve on it here. But I'm confident both will put up a fight for the win, and it could set an impressive stage for the rest of the year.

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Third Quarter

In quite possibly the most interesting first round in either draw, two former #1's -- U.S. Open champion Kim Clijsters and 2009 Australian runner-up Dinara Safina -- kick off play with their opener. Clijsters, who could have climbed to second in the world had she won her final against Na Li in Sydney, won this pair's most recent meeting last year in Cincinnati and leads their head-to-head by an intimidating 7-2 margin. Safina has the motivation to get back on a winning track, though -- she hasn't won a match since September, though to be fair she's been handed some pretty ugly draws -- and if Kim hasn't gotten over the emotionally frustrating loss on Friday, the Russian could take advantage.

Also in this quarter is another player once ranked at the top of the sport -- Ana Ivanovic has a rematch of her U.S. Open opener with Ekaterina Makarova and should dismiss her easily again. Then there's super-veteran Kimiko Date Krumm, who faces an injured Aggie Radwanska to start, and could win her first main draw match in Melbourne since 1996. On the opposite side of the experience scale is nineteen-year-old former Junior star Simona Halep, a quarterfinalist in Auckland. She faces a qualifier in her Australian Open debut, and that could be a big opportunity for the youngster.

The late-round match-to-watch: One more former #1, Jelena Jankovic, could meet Sydney semifinalist Alisa Kleybanova for a spot in the quarters. The two have met a handful of times over the last twenty-four months and the lower seed actually has the advantage -- if they both make it that far, my money's on Kleybanova to extend her lead.

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Fourth Quarter

Venus Williams leads this section of the draw, but battling injury, she might not be the biggest force in Australia. I don't know that she'll have a lot of trouble in her opener versus Sara Errani, but the Italian certainly has a chance. The bigger threat could come a few matches later, where she may run into Brisbane finalist Andrea Petkovic. And 2008 champ Maria Sharapova should have a relatively easy time against veteran Tamarine Tanasugarn, a woman to whom she's never dropped a set, and make it at least a few rounds further than she did last year.

I'm more interested in the outcome of the match between Aravane Rezai and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. The Frenchwoman did pull off an upset of Jelena Jankovic in Sydney, but hasn't made the third round of any tournament since July. Zahlavova, meanwhile, made the quarters in Brisbane and beat Nadia Petrova handily last week. This could be a match that either reestablishes a talent or sets the tone for a new one.

Waiting for the winner of that one could be 2009 quarterfinalist Jelena Dokic, who's been trying to mount a sustained comeback for the better part of two years. But she first has to get through thirty-year-old Zuzana Ondraskova, a been pro for over fifteen years who's never made a real dent on Tour. The winner of twenty ITF titles hasn't played the main draw in Melbourne in four years, and this could be a golden opportunity to finally advance.

The late-round match-to-watch: Victoria Azarenka, my early pick to win the title won't have to face Serena Williams for the fourth straight time in Melbourne, but she could face her sister for that elusive semi spot. But look out one round earlier than that, where Vika is slated to face Sydney champion and last year's surprise semifinalist Na Li. They've had three close matches in their previous meetings, and Li could pose a big obstacle for my prediction to ultimately come through.

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With draws like these, it seems clear that almost anything can happen Down Under, and I'm sure we'll see far more surprises over the next two weeks than I've laid out here. Of course for every upset there has to be upsetter, so we shouldn't be too disappointed if our favorites don't make it out of the early rounds -- it only means that someone else has emerged as a new talent, at least for the time being.

And all we can do is cheer them on and hope they keep the excitement going.

Be sure to check back tomorrow when I blogcast my full preview of the Australian Open and highlight a few more things you'll want to watch at the year's first Grand Slam.

Bali High

Well it sure has been an interesting year for Ana Ivanovic.

After a second round loss at the Australian Open and a failure to come even close to repeating her run to the Indian Wells finals, the former world #1 dropped out of the top fifty for the first time in about five years. She had more than a couple public meltdowns on court, openly sobbing when she lost matches and seemed to lose some of the spunk that helped her win the 2008 French Open.

But a switch seemed to flip in the Serb sometime around the spring. She made a solid run to the semis in Rome, beating three seeded players along the way. She then followed up on two of those wins by downing Victoria Azarenka in Cincinnati and Elena Dementieva in Beijing before finally claiming the trophy in Linz, her first in two years.

Her efforts earned her an entry to the Tournament of Champions in Bali. Sort of a consolation prize for those who didn't quite qualify for the year-end championships in Doha, the event this year pitted six ladies who'd won crowns this year against a couple of wildcards who'd shown their strengths all year long. World #11 and Australian Open semifinalist Na Li and last year's titleist Aravane Rezai claimed the top two seeds, but it was the four unseeded players who made it to the final four. Ana faced off against veteran Kimiko Date Krumm while wildcard Daniela Hantuchova met Alisa Kleybanova.

In probably the closest match of the tournament, Ivanovic survived a nail-biter against Kimiko -- though she barely got half of her first serves in during the opening set, she won seventy-five percent of those attempts and finally scored a late break to get the early lead. She lost the second in a tiebreak, but didn't allow her opponent to get a look in the decider, winning all but four points on her own serve and securing her spot in the finals after nearly two-and-a-half hours of play.

There Ana met Kleybanova who had had a much easier time with Hantuchova in her semi, dropping only four games in the hour or so they played. The two had split their previous six meetings, though Ivanovic had beaten the Seoul and Kuala Lumpur champion in their two most recent bouts. In the final, just a day after her twenty-third birthday, Ivanovic got off to a good start, converting on two of her four break chances to get out ahead. Though the scoreline stayed a bit closer in the second, she raised the level of her serving, firing off six aces and ultimately winning, 7-5 in the breaker.



The win not only grants Ivanovic her second title of the year -- the most prolific she's been since that breakout year in 2008 -- but it gets her back in the top twenty. As of this morning, she's ranked seventeenth in the world, ahead of Rezai and Grand Slam champions Maria Sharapova and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Not a bad place to end a year which started off so shakily. With the momentum she's gained over the past month, and now well back into seeding territory, Ivanovic might even be a legitimate contender in Melbourne. She's made the finals there before and has shown that she's still able to beat some of the big guns -- with a few months off, who knows how much stronger she can get?

After all, she might not quite be at the top of her game, but she sure seems to be heading that way.

How the Mighty Have Fallen

This seems to be a common theme in my posts recently -- that once-unstoppable stars seem to be struggling recent months -- and that trend has continued into this week's tournaments across Europe.

It started early in Stockholm, with the sixth, seventh and eighth seeds all losing their opening matches on Tuesday. And Tomas Berdych, who's only won a handful of matches since his stunning run to the Wimbledon finals back in July, followed up with his own first round exit on Wednesday.

Over in Luxembourg last year's most-improved player, Yanina Wickmayer saw her U.S. Open win over Patty Schnyder avenged, falling fairly quickly in her opener. And second seeded Aravane Rezai, a breakout during the clay court season, was trying to put together back-to-back wins for the first time since July. But after a tight win over qualifier Mona Barthel, she was smacked down by veteran Kirsten Flipkens yesterday, only winning one game in the forty-seven minute drubbing.

Then there's Moscow, where today former world #1 Jelena Jankovic, the surprise winner in Indian Wells in March, fell to seventeen-year-old qualifier Zarina Diyas -- ranked #268 -- in straight sets. After beating both Williams sisters on her way to the Rome finals, she hasn't lost to a player in the top twenty since the French Open and hasn't beaten one since May. Her exit comes a day after three-time champ Nikolay Davydenko, one of my favorites to win the Australian Open so early this year, lost two tiebreaks to Uruguay's Pablo Cuevas.

Now it's not all bad news for these players. We all know that tennis loves a comeback story -- ask recent Linz champion Ana Ivanovic, suddenly back in the top thirty, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, at a career high ranking after following through on his Bangkok title. And with the 2010 season wrapping up, there plenty of time to reflect on what needs to be worked on and changed next year. None of these guys or girls are at the end of their careers, and they might just need to rework a few kinks.

And I sure look forward to their triumphant returns.

Back on Top

Well, at least close to the top.

This week in Madrid Venus Williams secured her position as the #2 player in women's tennis when she beat Francesca Schiavone in the third round of the Mutua Madrileña Open, a spot she last held more than seven years ago. And like a true champion, she did not rest on her laurels, but instead proceeded to power through tough opponents like Charleston winner Sam Stosur and Shahar Peer, who'd beaten Svetlana Kuznetsova in her opening match.

Now I know I haven't always been the biggest Williams supporter, but even I have to admit I've been wondering what took her so long to come back. You might remember she began the year with a quarterfinal appearance in Melbourne and followed that up with an amazing fifteen match, two-title win streak that ended in the Miami finals. She may not play quite as many tournaments as the other pros, but those she does enter, she really shows up for -- Venus hasn't lost before the round of eight since last October.

Tomorrow, Williams plays in her seventieth career final -- she's already won forty-three of them, and she has to like her chances against world #24 Aravane Rezai. But the Frenchwoman should not be overlooked -- the two have actually split their previous meetings, both on clay and both several years ago. Rezai also made good after upsetting Justine Henin in the first round of Madrid and put together a solid victory over Jelena Jankovic to make the semis. The champion in Bali last year knows how to put together more than a few wins in a row.

Still Venus the more experienced, considerably more consistent player, should be able to make it through. And if she does, we might start talking about her as a threat at another Major which just happens to be around the corner.

Incidentally, Rafael Nadal's win over Nicolas Almagro this morning helped him reclaim the #2 ranking on the men's side too. He hasn't been gone quite as long as Venus was, but when he plays in the final tomorrow, he'll have another goal in mind -- a title in Rome, amazingly a clay-court tourney he has never won, would give him a record eighteen Masters 1000 titles, surpassing Andre Agassi who won his seventeenth at Cincinnati in 2004.

And if he makes it, wouldn't that make for an interesting French Open?

Top Tier Performances on the Second Tier

Fed Cup action was not all about the demolishment of the Czechs by the Italians or the nail-biting comeback of the U.S. over the perennial Russian powerhouses. Some of the most interesting action came in the World Group Playoffs, those matches deciding the nations that would compete in next year's main draw.

First up were the Belgians, arguably one of the strongest countries in the WTA, with three players in the top twenty-five. They shoud have had an easy time with the Estonians, whose top competitor Kaia Kanepi has seen her ranking drop from world #18 less than a year ago to #124 now. But things were not so easy.

Kim Clijsters opened up the tie with a straight set win over Maret Ani, a twenty-eight year old challenger who peaked at #63 in 2006. Yanina Wickmayer struggled a bit more in her rubber, dropping the second set to Kanepi before rolling through 6-1 in the third.

Justine Henin had a chance to close things out early on Sunday, but she ran into a surprising wall against Kanepi, who was able to regroup. After losing the first set in a tight tiebreaker, the Estonian shocked the seven-time Grand Slam winner to win the match and save her country from elimination.

Victory was short-lived though, as the new Belgian star, twenty-year-old Yanina Wickmayer herself rebounded after losing the first set in the fourth rubber to Ani and took the next two quickly. Though the winners lost the next doubles match, they'd earned enough wins to secure their spot in the 2011 World Group and attempt to reclaim the title they last won in 2001.



There was another close call in Frankfurt where a German team led by Andrea Petkovic took on the madamoiselles of France. The countries traded wins throughout the weekend, as the Germans took the lead, but the French drew even. Aravane Rezai, who hasn't had the best luck since she cracked the top twenty, continued to struggle -- she dropped a set to Tatjana Malek before winning that rubber and lost in straights to Petkovic on Sunday.

The saving grace for France was instead two former stars -- Julie Coin and one-time world #11 Alize Cornet teamed up for a quick win over the German doubles pair, 6-3, 6-1, to get their country back in the World Group next year.

But probably the closest match in the playoffs came between the Serbs and the Slovaks, two nations with a lot of talent but not a lot of follow-through. Former #1 Jelena Jankovic was missing her partner in crime as Ana Ivanovic lost both of her matches in their World Group first round against Russia. The Indian Wells champ was then left with eighteen-year-old Bojana Jovanovski, ranked #117 in the world.

The Slovaks were led by Daniela Hantuchova, a talented player who never seems to acheive quite as much as she should. The long-time Tour staple has done well this year, making the finals in Monterrey and getting ahead on Venus Williams in Miami before losing the heart-breaking three-setter.

On their opponents' courts, though, Daniela teamed with last year's Warsaw champ Magdalena Rybarikova to set the pace. She notched her second straight win over Jankovic to take the lead, two rubbers to one, and then partnered up to win the deciding doubles match. With the victory, the Slovaks return to the top tier of Fed Cup for the first time since 2004 and make the case for their position among the elite of women's tennis.



There was much less drama in the Ukraine, where visiting Australians swept their opponents. Sam Stosur, fresh off her win in Charleston, led her teammates to an easy win over the likes of Alona Bondarenko. We'll see the Aussies back in the World Group next year.

Sure, I'm ecstatic about the rematch of last year's final between the Americans and the Italians -- and especially how Bethanie Mattek-Sands was able to pull off two victories on Sunday to secure the win for the U.S. But as we've seen, there was plenty of other action to speak of. And if these ladies keep up the same level of play, we're in for a pretty exciting year.

An Open Window

It's not often that a defending champion doesn't get the courtesy of a seed when she attempts to reclaim a title. But that's what happened this week to Roberta Vinci, titlist in Barcelona last year. Now ranked fifty-fourth in the world, she faced a tough draw with a first round match against second seed Aravane Rezai.

But Vinci wasn't flustered. She'd beaten Rezai in Palermo four years ago and she did it again this week in a surprisingly uneventful two sets. She even faced a test in her second round match against wildcard Laura Pous Tio, a woman who beat her earlier this year in Acapulco. After dropping the first set to the Spaniard, she bagelled her in the second and closed it out with nearly an eighty percent first serve percentage in the closing set.



She's by no means out of the woods though. Top seeded Francesca Schiavone, last year's runner-up, powered through her first two rounds and could force a rematch of the 2009 title game. Fancesca, who hadn't won back-to-back matches since Melbourne until this week, may not be the biggest threat.

Carla Suarez Navarro continues to improve on her year, having defeated Flavia Pennetta on her way to the Marbella finals last week and stunning Svetlana Kuznetsova in Indian Wells. The twenty-year-old has won all three of her previous matches with Vinci, so Roberta can't be looking forward to that potential meeting.

Still, plenty of seeds are falling in Spain. Previously red-hot Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, feisty Maria Kirilenko and on-and-off Sorana Cirstea all exited in the second round earlier today, leaving a crack which Roberta is more than capable of floating through. If she's able to win her third career title, it may not move her too far up the rankings -- but it should garner her a little respect.

And with just a month left before the French Open, there really is nothing better.

The Importance of Defense: Part 2

Earlier this week I pointed out how Andy Murray's decision not to defend his title in Doha last week might have some interesting consequences for the Australian Open draws released on Friday.

A similar situation is fomenting in Sydney this week. You might remember that 2009 champ Elena Dementieva won this trophy as part of a fifteen-match win streak. But this year she didn't go back to Auckland to defend that first title, so she's dropping points from her ranking regardless of her showing in Sydney.

She's doing well at this tournament so far. With a 6-3, 6-1 win over Victoria Azarenka on Thursday, Elena clinched her spot in the finals for a second straight year. There she'll meet Serena Williams who actually struggled in her semifinal match against Bali champ Aravane Rezai, and found herself two points from elimination before rallying for the win. Serena is certainly a formidable opponent to face -- if the Russian doesn't pull off the victory tomorrow, she'll close the gap between herself and world #6 Venus Williams.

Of course her situation isn't quite as crucial as Andy Murray's. Win or lose tomorrow, she'll still be ranked fifth in the world, one spot lower than she was at this time last year, so her potential draws won't be affected. More important than her point score, though, is what a successful defense would do to raise her profile. She's one of the most consistent players out there, having been ranked in the top ten for the better part of the last decade -- but she's often overlooked as a threat at the Majors, and it's easy to forget that she's actually played in two Slam finals. Adding another victory to her record would certainly get pundits talking about her again.



Dementieva has a decent record against Williams, having won most of their matches in the last five years, so her chances of repeating aren't that bad. And knocking off a top seed, whatever the circumstances, will always serve as a huge confidence booster. The timing of a potential win wouldn't hurt either -- as the last thing she remembers before going into the first Grand Slam of the year, momentum would certainly be on Elena's side.

It might not be the safest best, but I'm putting my money -- and hopes -- on an upset tomorrow -- after all, it would be fun to shake things up a little, wouldn't it?

A French Revolution

It was a battle of the French this week in Bali, where the first ever Commonwealth Bank Tournament of Championships took place. The new tournament showcased the talent of new and established stars of the sport, inviting the ten highest-ranked women who'd won an international tournament this year -- and who didn't qualify for the season-ending championships in Doha -- plus two wild cards to compete for as much as a million dollars in prize money.

The headliners for the inaugural tournament didn't disappoint. Marion Bartoli and Sam Stosur claimed the top seeds while Sabine Lisicki, a finalist in Luxembourg and winner in Charleston, and veteran Kimiko Date Krumm accepted the final two spots. And right from the get-go there was quite a bit of drama to speak of. Two-time titlist Yanina Wickmayer voluntarily withdrew after word spread of her twelve-month suspension from the Tour (for not showing up for drug tests -- and in the week after Andre Agassi's confessions, it seems the authorities are just trying to make a point). Both Lisicki and Stosur were upset in their groups, and Bartoli was the only top seed to advance to the semis and ultimately to the finals.

There she met Aravane Rezai, the twenty-two year old who captured her first championship trophy when she beat Lucie Hradecka in Stasbourg last May. The rest of the year has been filled with ups and downs for her, though, as she lost a couple of tournaments in the early rounds and only barely qualified for Linz and Luxembourg to end the year. She'd lost her last two meetings with Bartoli, most recently in Tokyo this past September.

On Sunday afternoon in Bali, though, she fought her way back from being down set point at 3-5 to take the first 7-5. When Bartoli had to retire with a quadricep injury, Aravane held up the biggest trophy of her career thus far.



It's not quite enough to shoot Rezai into the top-most rankings, but it does make a case for French tennis on the women's Tour. The men already have Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, they have Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils. The women are struggling a bit with Amelie Mauresmo speaking of retirement and Virginie Razzano losing most of her matches against the top players.

But maybe with a little less than three months left before the first Grand Slam of next year, it might be time to start looking at another country to be a force on the courts.

By the way, the country you think is most likely to dominate in 2010, according to my admittedly unscientific poll, is Russia. Only one person voted for Belgium, something that shocked me. But even though the polls are closed, I still want to know what you think! Leave your comments below!