On the Verge

It's been a while since either of the two ladies contesting the title in Kuala Lumpur Sunday had such a legitimate chance at winning a trophy. And though both have already caused their share of upsets over the course of the past week, I have a feeling we might be in for one more.

Lucie Safarova has been around for some time and has made a couple of valiant efforts to break into the elite. During her breakout year in 2007, after having won some small titles in Estoril and Forest Hills, she beat Amelie Mauresmo at the Australian and French Opens and Justine Henin at the Paris Indoors.She reached a career high of #22 in the world that year, but has been up and down since. Last year, even when she finally seemed to be stabilizing, she dropped the first round of an ITF tournament in Poitiers at the end of the season.

You might not think that such a spotty player would be as hard-hitting as Safarova is, but if you watched her courageous performance against Vera Zvonareva in the Melbourne third round, you know how talented she is. But it wasn't until this week in Malaysia when she really hit her stride. She survived a struggle against former #1 Dinara Safina in the first round and rolled over second-seeded Marion Bartoli in the next round. By the time she reached the semis, you almost had to consider her the favorite.

That's especially true when you consider all the seeds had been eliminated in the top half of the draw, but that doesn't make the other remaining player any less intimidating. When twenty-seven year old Jelena Dokic first burst on the scene over a decade ago, she was touted as a real star to watch. As a qualifier at Wimbledon, she destroyed top seed Martina Hingis in the first round, and rode that momentum all the way to the quarters -- a year later she made the semis. We all know the story after that -- injuries and family troubles forced her out of the elite and out of the sport. We didn't see her again until several years later when, again the underdog, she made the quarters in Melbourne in 2009.

Dokic has hung around since then, winning a few titles on the ITF circuit and winning a couple matches here and there on Tour. But this week at the BMW Open she came out swinging hard, rebounding after losing the first set to Francesca Schiavone to cause the upset of the top seed. A few days later she took out up-and-comer Bojana Jovanovski and, in her first semifinal in seven years, handily beat Michaella Krajicek to make the finals.

The two ladies have split their last two meetings, with Dokic outlasting Lucie in a long three sets in Paris. But something tells me not to underestimate this girl -- she seems to do best when she's not expected to win, and the way she's playing recently she may very well have her second breakthrough a full dozen years after her first one.

And something tells me a win now would be so much sweeter than the ones that came before.

Australian Open: First Round Matches to Watch

The first serves of the 2011 Australian Open's main draws will be hit in just a day and, as always, I feel we can expect the fireworks to start right at the get-go.

Now last year I tried to be bold and predict the players who'd get farthest in each of their quarters, but some early upsets and a few stellar Cinderella performances gave me a pretty bad record on the year. So I've decided to set my sights a little closer to kick-off and highlight a couple of opening round matches that could really set the tone for the tournament.

Some might be the site of big upsets, others could lay the foundation for a valiant comeback, while the rest may launch the careers of a couple next-generation stars. Whatever the case, I hope these matches are as fun to watch as those we've seen in the past -- and maybe provide us a bit of a glimpse into the future.

So let's get right to it.

The Men First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

The Women First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

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The Men

First Quarter

Top-seeded Rafael Nadal might have breathed a sigh of relief when he saw his section of the draw. The 2009 Melbourne champion shouldn't face any big threats in the early rounds. But elsewhere in his bracket, his colleagues may tell different stories.

World #7 and Auckland champion David Ferrer drew a resurging Jarkko Nieminen for his opener. Though they've both been around more than a decade, they've never met on the pro Tour -- the Finn won their only match at a Challenger event back in 2001. Once a top-fifteen player, Niemenen struggled with a wrist injury in '09 but started climbing out of the hole last year. He beat Gilles Simon in Hamburg and Tomas Berdych in Stockholm, but his year was highlighted by a runner's-up trophy in Bangkok. It wouldn't be out of the question to see an upset here, especially if the Spaniard is all all worn down by his title run this past week.

Elsewhere Feliciano Lopez meets Alejandro Falla, inexplicably ranked out of the top hundred, in his first match. The two are ostensibly clay court specialists, but remember that Falla was up two sets and a break against Roger Federer last year at Wimbledon, so he could be a threat on other surfaces too. He hasn't won a lot recently, but he just might surprise us here. And Michael Llodra, at his highest career ranking at thirty years of age, drew former #15 Juan Ignacio Chela to start -- in the battle of two veterans, I'm not sure I'd pick the seeded Frenchman to win.

But possibly the most intriguing match in this quarter will be between Kooyong exhibition winner Lleyton Hewitt and David Nalbandian, who took home the second place trophy in Auckland. The Australian has fallen out of the top fifty, but he's still cuts an intimidating figure in the sport. He leads the pair's head-to-head, but Nalbandian won their only match in the last five years. Given the way the Argentine has played during his comeback, I like his chances to win, but it could be a long couple sets before anything is decided.

The late-round match-to-watch: If seeds progress as they should, John Isner will meet Marin Cilic in the third round, two big men with big serves. I'm not sure either will get there -- Cilic has been struggling recently, while Isner is really only pulling out decisive wins over much-lower ranked players. But the winner of this potential match-up will at least boost his confidence for the rest of the year.

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Second Quarter

While Rafa may have been dealt an easy first week, Roger Federer may have been dealt the opposite -- he could face Sydney champion Gilles Simon, in the top ten just about a year ago, or Yen-Hsun Lu, last year a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, in the second round. Then there's the match between Mardy Fish, one of my favorites to shine at the past U.S. Open, and Victor Hanescu. The Romanian can be tricky, and if Fish isn't fully recovered from the ankle injury he suffered at the end of last year, he might have some trouble.

One match in which the chance for an upset is pretty high will be the one between Sam Querrey and Lukasz Kubot. Even though he's at an all-time career high ranking, the American has only won one match since the U.S. Open, squandering a top seed in Sydney this past week by falling in his opener. Kubot is ranked lower than anyone Sam's lost to recently, but that doesn't mean he won't set a new precedent. I'm hoping he gets it together to advance here, but I'm cautious on that prediction.

The late-round match-to-watch: Roger and Mardy are set up for a fourth round meeting, and if they both get there it would be fun to see a rematch of the Cincy finals. And if both Federer and Andy Roddick make good on their seedings, they could put forth a spectacular quarter.

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Third Quarter

Novak Djokovic leads this section of the draw and might face his first test in the second round versus big-serving Ivo Karlovic, while sixth seed Tomas Berdych may have received a pass by receiving a qualifier in the first round.

But I'll be watching young American hopeful Ryan Harrison, who received the U.S. wildcard into the tournament. He displayed some promising signs of talent in New York last year, and I'd love to see him continue that momemtum. But the eighteen-year-old drew Auckland quarterfinalist Adrian Mannarino in the first round, and we certainly know he's capable of pulling off some upsets.

The match-up between Fabio Fognini and Kei Nishikori could also set off some sparks. Fognini has been slowly climbing the ranks, while Nishikori is trying to recapture the momentum he had before an elbow injury ended his run in 2009. They've both been pushed to fifth sets, and know how to hang in when needed, but if the man from Japan can get the win, I like the tone it would set for his year.

A bigger potential for a spoiler, though, might come from Davis Cup champ Viktor Troicki and Dmitry Tursunov, another rebuilding story. Sparse action from the Russian last year pushed him out of the top five hundred, but he's capable of doing damage at his best. He played some nice matches during his Asia circuit in 2010, and if Troicki's final run in Sydney this past week left him burnt out, it could present an opportunity for Tursunov to pounce.

The late-round match-to-watch: Nikolay Davydenko is seeded well below his talent level and, when playing at his best, he's far better than most of the men in his part of the draw. He might set up a quarterfinal with Djokovic that could hold a few surprises.

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Fourth Quarter

Robin Soderling and Andy Murray have been trading off the #4 and #5 ranking the in sport for the past few months, so it's only fitting they end up in the same quarter in Melbourne. Though they both may get a few challenges from their early round opponents, neither should have too much trouble advancing.

I'm not sure the same can be said for thirteenth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who'll face an under-ranked Phillipp Petzschner for the second round. Another pair who've only met once in the Challengers, they could spend a long first day on the court. Tsonga made a nice run to the semis in Doha, so he seems to be back in playing shape, but the German has been known to take advantage of his opponents in the past and may not let the on-paper favorite get that far.

And Ernests Gulbis, who played well against Nadal in Doha and made the semis in Sydney, is one of those feisty up-and-comers who is just begging for a chance to impress at a Major. He'll first have to get through Benjamin Becker, a tricky player who has beaten higher ranks -- Nikolay Davydenko in Halle, Fernando Verdasco in Brisbane -- so it might not be the easiest walk in Melbourne Park. I'm not entirely encouraged by the Latvian's display of frustration at losing the lead against Gilles Simon this past week, but I'd like to see him really show what he's got on a big stage.

The late-round match-to-watch: 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro may have his comeback attempt thwarted early, as he has a second round date with Marcos Baghdatis. But the 2006 runner-up from Cyprus pulled out of Sydney with a groin injury, and if he's not up to snuff, it may work in the Argentine's favor.

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The Women

First Quarter

If you're looking for first round upsets, this might be the quarter for them. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki drew top-ranked doubles player Gisela Dulko for her opener, while Hobart champion Jarmila Groth gets Auckland runner-up and twenty-first seed Yanina Wickmayer. I'm not sure the on-paper favorites will get out of either of those matches, though I'd love at least Caroline to prove me wrong.

I'll also be watching for follow-through from Dominika Cibulkova, who pulled off the upset of her young career when she beat Wozniacki handily in the second round of Sydney. She drew Angelique Kerber, who she's beaten in their only previous meeting. But the German defeated higher-ranked players throughout the back half of last year -- Shahar Peer at Wimbledon, Aggie Radwanska in Beijing, Daniela Hantuchova in Luxembourg -- so she might be able to handle the diminutive Slovak, who can be spotty if she loses focus.

The late-round match-to-watch: I don't know that we'd reach this point, but if the scores follow the seedings, last year's runner-up Justine Henin would face French Open titleist Francesca Schiavone for the quarterfinals. It could be fun to watch a grudge match between the four-time Roland Garros champ and the woman who took her place.

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Second Quarter

Vera Zvonareva held on to the second seed -- and ranking -- by the slimmest of margins coming into the Australian Open, and she wasn't rewarded with an easy draw. She could face Sydney stand-out Bojana Jovanovski in the second round and any one of a host of potential threats -- Melanie Oudin, Klara Zakopalova, Lucie Safarova -- in the third.

More immediately, I'll be watching the early progress of top-ranked teenager Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and last year's quarterfinalist Maria Kirilenko, both in this section. Pavs is the youngest seeded player in Melbourne, and though she retired from Hobart, it came on the heels of a semifinal run in Brisbane. And Kirilenko's 2010 performance in Melbourne launched her into the top echelons of the sport for the remainder of the year. Both will want to kick off their Major campaign on a good note and prove recent results were no fluke.

And I continue to root for the return of Anna Chakvetadze, who's pitted against Olga Govortsova in her first round. Anna's been ranked as high as #5 in the world and made the quarters in Australia back in 2007, but she's only won three Grand Slam matches in the last two years. If she's serious about reestablishing herself, she'll need to win at least a couple here.

The late-round match-to-watch: Fifth seed Sam Stosur didn't have the best start to the year, and with a potential third round match against Brisbane titleist Petra Kvitova -- who won their only previous meeting, albeit when neither was playing at her best -- she might be challenged to improve on it here. But I'm confident both will put up a fight for the win, and it could set an impressive stage for the rest of the year.

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Third Quarter

In quite possibly the most interesting first round in either draw, two former #1's -- U.S. Open champion Kim Clijsters and 2009 Australian runner-up Dinara Safina -- kick off play with their opener. Clijsters, who could have climbed to second in the world had she won her final against Na Li in Sydney, won this pair's most recent meeting last year in Cincinnati and leads their head-to-head by an intimidating 7-2 margin. Safina has the motivation to get back on a winning track, though -- she hasn't won a match since September, though to be fair she's been handed some pretty ugly draws -- and if Kim hasn't gotten over the emotionally frustrating loss on Friday, the Russian could take advantage.

Also in this quarter is another player once ranked at the top of the sport -- Ana Ivanovic has a rematch of her U.S. Open opener with Ekaterina Makarova and should dismiss her easily again. Then there's super-veteran Kimiko Date Krumm, who faces an injured Aggie Radwanska to start, and could win her first main draw match in Melbourne since 1996. On the opposite side of the experience scale is nineteen-year-old former Junior star Simona Halep, a quarterfinalist in Auckland. She faces a qualifier in her Australian Open debut, and that could be a big opportunity for the youngster.

The late-round match-to-watch: One more former #1, Jelena Jankovic, could meet Sydney semifinalist Alisa Kleybanova for a spot in the quarters. The two have met a handful of times over the last twenty-four months and the lower seed actually has the advantage -- if they both make it that far, my money's on Kleybanova to extend her lead.

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Fourth Quarter

Venus Williams leads this section of the draw, but battling injury, she might not be the biggest force in Australia. I don't know that she'll have a lot of trouble in her opener versus Sara Errani, but the Italian certainly has a chance. The bigger threat could come a few matches later, where she may run into Brisbane finalist Andrea Petkovic. And 2008 champ Maria Sharapova should have a relatively easy time against veteran Tamarine Tanasugarn, a woman to whom she's never dropped a set, and make it at least a few rounds further than she did last year.

I'm more interested in the outcome of the match between Aravane Rezai and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. The Frenchwoman did pull off an upset of Jelena Jankovic in Sydney, but hasn't made the third round of any tournament since July. Zahlavova, meanwhile, made the quarters in Brisbane and beat Nadia Petrova handily last week. This could be a match that either reestablishes a talent or sets the tone for a new one.

Waiting for the winner of that one could be 2009 quarterfinalist Jelena Dokic, who's been trying to mount a sustained comeback for the better part of two years. But she first has to get through thirty-year-old Zuzana Ondraskova, a been pro for over fifteen years who's never made a real dent on Tour. The winner of twenty ITF titles hasn't played the main draw in Melbourne in four years, and this could be a golden opportunity to finally advance.

The late-round match-to-watch: Victoria Azarenka, my early pick to win the title won't have to face Serena Williams for the fourth straight time in Melbourne, but she could face her sister for that elusive semi spot. But look out one round earlier than that, where Vika is slated to face Sydney champion and last year's surprise semifinalist Na Li. They've had three close matches in their previous meetings, and Li could pose a big obstacle for my prediction to ultimately come through.

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With draws like these, it seems clear that almost anything can happen Down Under, and I'm sure we'll see far more surprises over the next two weeks than I've laid out here. Of course for every upset there has to be upsetter, so we shouldn't be too disappointed if our favorites don't make it out of the early rounds -- it only means that someone else has emerged as a new talent, at least for the time being.

And all we can do is cheer them on and hope they keep the excitement going.

Be sure to check back tomorrow when I blogcast my full preview of the Australian Open and highlight a few more things you'll want to watch at the year's first Grand Slam.

The State of the World Is Changing!

So it's been a couple of days now since the last ball was hit at the Australian Open, but it sure feels a lot longer than that. Or maybe it's just that things seem so different. Okay, sure, Roger Federer and Serena Williams are still the top players in the sport, but some others shifts portend a whole new era.

Most notably Rafael Nadal, whose quarterfinal exit ended his campaign to win a second title in Melbourne, dropped to #4 in the world -- obviously still among the elite, but his lowest ranking since May 2005, just before he won his first French Open. More disturbing is the news that the re-aggravated knee injury he sustained during that match with Andy Murray will keep him out of play for another four weeks; hopefully he'll return in time to defend his title at Indian Wells -- but an absence any longer will start to make me nervous.

Dinara Safina was able to keep her #2 ranking this week but holds onto it by just a hair. Last year's runner up at two Majors doesn't look at all like the player she was then. Nagging back problems that forced her to retire in the fourth round combined with a lackluster performance in Sydney suggests she won't be in top form for some time, and if she can't mimic her performance from Spring '09 -- which brought her trophies in Rome and Madrid -- she'll be giving up her spot near the top soon.

Of course when some lose others must win. Both Novak Djokovic and Caroline Wozniacki converted their Aussie Open runs into their highest career rankings, while Marin Cilic and Na Li cracked the top ten for the first time.

But there were, certainly, even bigger movers than that. Maria Kirilenko put her name back on the map by downing Maria Sharapova on her way to the quarters -- she jumped twenty-one spots to #37. Jie Zheng, who ultimately vanquished the Russian, popped fifteen places to #20. On the men's side Lukasz Kubot, who advanced to the fourth round for the first time at a Slam, made the biggest jump among the men to #61.

And, moving in the opposite direction, Jelena Dokic, who had just began to stage a comeback here last year, wasn't able to repear her success and toppled precipitously close to triple digits. Meanwhile not-so-retired Fabrice Santoro, playing in his forty-sixth consecutive Major (spanning four decades), fell victim to Cilic in the first round and forfeited enough points to send him to his lowest ranking since -- get this -- 1997!

We all know the stakes are high at the Grand Slams, so it shouldn't be surprising that players can rise and fall so drastically with just one performance -- one match even. But more so than after any other tournament I can remember, we're seeing a different landscape -- one in which Rafael Nadal and Dinara Safina may not be considered the threats they once were, and though the former certainly upsets me more than the latter, I'm not sure I like it!

Of course, it's premature to call for an end to anyone's career, but here's hoping the new era that's ushered in will be just as exciting as the last one!

After the Storm

The dust has settled in the post-Australian Open world and things, which were a bit shady in the weeks leading up to the year's first Grand Slam, have become a little clearer.

Before the tournament began, all the talk centered around Andy Murray and whether he would win his first major. After notching wins in an exhibition tournament and at Doha in the weeks leading up to Melbourne, his odds for a championship were equal to those of Roger Federer. Even I feared it might happen.

Before the tournament began, I hoped Elena Dementieva would pull out her first Slam. She'd made a semifinal appearance at the Sony Ericsson Championships in November on her way to her best year-end ranking and had already won two titles this year -- why not capture #3?

Before the tournament began, American doubles partners Bob and Mike Bryan had lost their grip on the top spot, ending 2008 ranked behind Daniel Nestor and Nenad Zimonjic. Cara Black and Liezel Huber were coming off a year that included nine titles of their own, including the U.S. Open.

How things can change in a fortnight -- or maybe, more appropriately, change back.

Of course the big stories are the glorious win of Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams's victories both in singles and doubles, with sister Venus. The Bryan brothers took back their #1 spot with an sweeping win in the third set of their final.

But there were stories for the Open that go beyond the winners, many of which I've covered, but some which flew under the radar.

The rankings for the top five men didn't change, but under the super elite there were some shifts, some shaking, and some leaps. Andy Roddick, fitter and slightly lighter, seemed to get his stride back, and climbed back to #6 with his defeat of defending champion Novak Djokovic. And Murray's vanquisher Fernando Verdasco jumped six spots into the top ten for the first time, thanks to his valiant effort against Nadal in the semis.

But those weren't the most significant moves -- Tommy Haas, Dudi Sela and Marcos Baghdatis all moved up the rankings by more than ten spots. Croatian Mario Ancic only won two matches in Australia, but his upset of Ivo Karlovic was enough to get him into the top thirty. And Ernests Gulbis's win over Igor Andreev in the first round advanced him seven spots. It wasn't all good news, of course. Last year's runner-up, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, tumbled down to #14 while former #1s Juan Carlos Ferrero and Lleyton Hewitt both fell out of the top hundred thanks to their first round losses.

The women's side was shaken up too. The two finalists moved up one spot each, sending Jelena Jankovic back to #3. And like in the men's draw last year's finalists couldn't repeat -- Ana Ivanovic slipped three spots after her third round exit and Maria Sharapova, unable to defend her title while she recovers from a nagging shoulder injury, left the top ten for the first time since before she won Wimbledon in 2004.

On the upside, Carla Suárez Navarro, who eliminated Venus in the second round, climbed into the #30 spot while Jelena Dokic more than halved her ranking from #187 to #91 as she made it through to the quarters. Both Kateryna Bondarenko and Lucie Safarova proved they should be taken seriously with first round victories over top players.

The Sony Ericsson Champions Race is even more interesting. Marion Bartoli stands at #5, helped by her final appearance at Brisbane and her defeat of Jankovic in Melbourne. And Victoria Azarenka, who nearly collaped in the heat of her fourth round match with Serena, is seventh. It supports my concerns that early race figures might be misleading, but does satisfy me that they do capture the best of the year so far.

American family teams took both doubles titles. The Bryan brothers won their seventh major while the Williams sisters took their eighth. India's Sania Mirza won her first Grand Slam, taking the mixed doubles title with compatriot Mahesh Bhupathi, a finalist with Mark Knowles in the men's draw.



And so with the first major of 2009 in the books, the rankings stand as follows:

I Don't Even Know Where to Begin...

So I go away for a few days and when I return, as is usually the case, the whole world is turned upside down!

Now I confess, I wasn't able to keep up with all the matches while on vacation and some of the shocking upsets that happened in the third and fourth rounds occurred without comment -- but there's still plenty to talk about from latter-round action. But let's just rewind for a minute.

Jelena Dokic continued her comeback for as long as she could, beating #11 Caroline Wozniacki and #29 Alisa Kleybanova before finally being stopped in the quarterfinals by Dinara Safina. You can't say she collapsed under the pressure, though -- she did take the middle set from the #3-seeded player. Marcos Baghdatis also followed up his strong start with a straight-set win over American Mardy Fish, but reigning champion Novak Djokovic put an end to the Cypriot's surge in the fourth round. Even Carla Suárez Navarro was able to back up her defeat of Venus Williams with wins over two compatriots for the right to meet Elena Dementieva in the Elite Eight.

There was also the day of retirements, when three matches were suspended early due to injury or sickness. Gael Monfils and Jie Zheng both pulled out of their fourth rounds with wrist injuries while nineteen-year-old Brisbane champ Victoria Azarenka nearly collapsed after taking her first set from Serena Williams.

But then came the real shockers.

I suppose technically Andy Murray's loss to #14 Fernando Verdasco in the fourth round was an upset -- but I can tell you I shed no tears. After winning the Capitala World Championship in Abu Dhabi, an exhibition match in which he beat Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on consecutive days, and Qatar's ExxonMobil Open, Murray was considered by most to be the favorite in Melbourne, despite his #4 seed and the fact that he'd never won a major before.

Verdasco had other ideas though.

The score over the first three sets makes them each seem like blow-outs -- Murray took the lead 6-2, 1-6, 6-1. But the Davis Cup winner, who had lost his five previous matches to the Brit/Scot, was not dissuaded. With a shocking 78% first-serve percentage in the last two sets, Fernando didn't allow Murray one break point opportunity. He served six aces in the final set, leading Andy in both winners and errors, and after more than three hours of play came out with the win.

On the women's side Jelena Jankovic looked like she might've had an easy road to her second Grand Slam final with both Williams and red-hot Dementieva in the bottom half of the draw. I'm sure she didn't expect her biggest threat to come from sixteenth-seed Marion Bartoli.

It's easy to have forgotten Bartoli. The Frenchwoman made it to the finals of Wimbledon in 2007 but was demolished by Venus Williams, officially ranked lower but hardly the underdog. Since then Marion has struggled a bit. She barely made it past the third round in any tournament last year -- only making one final -- and saw her ranking drop from #10 to #17. She began 2009 with a second place finish in Brisbane, but I still didn't expect her to be much of a force against the top-ranked woman in the fourth round -- even though she'd won their last two meetings over a year ago. But Jankovic was almost no match for Bartoli. In less than ninety minutes Marion scored twice as many winners, three aces to none, and took 81% of the points on her first serve.

It's a shame that she was handed just as big a defeat at the hands of Vera Zvonareva in the next round. Again, I admit, I didn't have high hopes for the runner-up at last year's Sony Ericsson Championships. Though the seventh-ranked Russian led Bartoli head-to-head and is clearly coming off her best year ever, Vera pulled out of the Sydney warm-up tournament with an intestinal illness (to be fair, Bartoli withdrew as well), and I worried she might not be in top form in Australia's sweltering heat. But Zvonareva did triumph -- in barely over an hour! -- as Marion spewed errors and struggled to hold serve.

And of course the biggest quarterfinal upset so far came in the men's draw. Novak Djokovic was only three matches away from repeating as champion, but he'd suffered some early-round disappointments in the last few weeks. Still, he was the favorite to beat Andy Roddick who, at #9 in the world, is at his lowest ranking since 2006. After a first set with no breaks of serve, Roddick found himself down in the tiebreak and then down in the match. But the newly slimmed-down American showed off his fitness and regrouped in the second set as temperatures on the court rose. Nole couldn't withstand the heat -- from the court or from Andy -- quite as well and fourteen minutes into the fourth set, down two to one, he retired.

So that sets up an interesting second week at the Open.

On the men's side we might finally see that highly-anticipated Nadal-Federer match-up, though it does require a few more wins from both players. Nadal hasn't dropped a set this entire tournament, but next faces a wily Gilles Simon who received a walkover after Monfils retired. And Roger has to get past Roddick, who could power through solely on adrenaline.

For the women Serena is still the betting-man's favorite, but I wouldn't put it past Dementieva to make it through on her half. And Vera might be on a role, but I have to believe Safina's going to make it to her second Major final. That potential match-up, a repeat of the finals at Sydney and last year's Olympics (Elena won both), could usher in a new era for women's tennis.

And I can't wait to see it!

The Match(es) of the Moment

I was originally planning to dedicate this morning's post to what I considered the most memorable match of the second round, but man were there a lot to choose from.

I'll start with the one that made my jaw drop this morning.

Venus Williams hasn't been the biggest threat on hard courts in several years. Even though she won the Sony-Ericsson WTA Championships on the surface last year, she did so almost as the underdog with an eighth seed. In the Majors she hasn't made it to a final on anything other than grass since 2003. Even still you know opponents were terrified to see her in their side of the draw in Melbourne this week. And pundits were talking about the potential semifinal matchup between her and her sister as soon as the bracket was released.

But all those players can breathe a sigh of relief this morning -- on Thursday Carla Suárez Navarro, playing in her very first Australian Open, took Venus out of contention in three sets.

The match started predictably enough, with Williams winning the first set 6-2 in less than half an hour. She won all eleven points on her first serve and almost half the points on Carla's serve. But in the second set Suárez Navarro amped up her game -- she served more winners and fewer errors than she had in the first and converted both of her break opportunities. The third set went the distance -- sixty-three minutes and eighty points played. Venus couldn't capitalize on match point with Carla serving at 4-5, and a double fault in the subsequent service game handed the match to the forty-sixth ranked Suárez Spaniard.

No one expected the result. In the preview of the match posted on the Open's website before the match, Alan Trengove wrote:

"The 20-year-old Spaniard would have a better chance at Roland Garros, where she reached the quarterfinals on clay courts as a qualifier. On hardcourt, she could be overwhelmed. Williams in straight."

But I can't help feel that it's just an indication of how wide open the women's draw really is. With five different women holding the top ranking last year, the #1 spot is really up for grabs at this tournament.

Number One may still be a long shot for Amer Delic, one of only two American men to make it through the qualifying rounds in Australia, but he's certainly on the rise. In the main draw the twenty-six year old has had to fight more than most. His first round match went five sets and almost three hours against countryman Taylor Dent, but he was even more impressive in the second round against 28th-seeded Paul-Henri Mathieu.

Less than an hour into the match, he was down two sets to love, and it looked like he would soon be headed home. But he rallied in the third set with the help of six aces and won the fourth in a tiebreak. The deciding set took sixteen games and seventy-two minutes, but Delic had better first and second serve percentages. There was only one break the entire set, but it was the one that counted. Amer became the fourth U.S. man, and the only one not ranked in the top 25, to make it to the third round.

Next he faces world #3 Novak Djokovic, to whom he lost in four sets at Wimbledon two years ago. It'll be a tough task, especially after two five-set matches in sweltering heat, but stranger things have certainly happened.

The last two matches yielded results I've been looking forward to for some time. Marcos Baghdatis followed up a straight-set win in the first round by knocking out #16 Robbie Soderling with relative ease. And, in a matchup I was a bit torn over, Jelena Dokic continued her comeback with a win over a still-stuggling Anna Chakvetadze. They'll both struggle in the next round, Marcos against Mardy Fish and Jelena against Caroline Wozniacki, but whatever the results, they've both chosen to make their statements here in Australia.

See you next time!

Australia's Not to Be Outdone

A few years ago the USTA packaged together a series of tournaments between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open and created a race of sorts they branded the U.S. Open Series.

This year our friends Down Under are doing the same.

The 2009 season kicks off with the brand new Brisbane International which starts today. Combined with the Moorilla Hobart International, the Medibank International Sydney and of course the Grand Slam in Melbourne, the tournaments will be now branded the Australian Open Series.

Maybe it's largely a marketing ploy, but the creation of a lead-up series to the year's first major is akin to rolling out a red carpet for the Oscars -- it could be more exciting than the main event. The set of Australian tournaments -- which have never held quite the cache as titles in New Haven, Cincinnati, or even Toronto -- will create, I feel, a livlier competition and could serve to attract a higher caliber of player. Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Mardy Fish were among the first to commit to the men's draw in Brisbane, while Ana Ivanovic and Daniela Hantuchova are playing on the women's side. And both Marcos Baghdatis and Jelena Dokic look to come back to the tour and prove they're not to be forgotten.

Additionally the series provides a platform for Australian players -- who haven't exactly been at the top of their game over the past year -- to return to the limelight. Currently, and quite surprisingly, the country's top player is Samantha Stosur at #52. Even former #1 Lleyton Hewitt has been languishing outside the top fifty for the first time since 1999. And despite his recommitment to the sport, hunky Mark Philippoussis is probably now better known as a reality TV cougar-chaser than a tennis star.



As all these players come together on the hardcourts, we could see some real fireworks. Novak and Ana are clearly warming up for the year's first big championship, while Lleyton and Marcos are fighting to regai their credibility -- and their spots among tennis elite.

It may be some time before the AO Series generates quite the excitement of other tournaments. Right now participants don't rack up points for extra prize money like they do in the U.S. over the summer, but that could be a future development. But the branding change is certainly a step in a higher-profile and more glamorous direction.

And for those of you who are curious, here's the schedule of events for this year's Australian Open Series:



See ya Down Under, mates!

A Toast to 2009!

Despite my "Best of 2008" article published last month, I'm actually not a huge fan of countdowns -- in my opinion the champagne toast that comes after the ball drop is more a matter of ritual than something truly celebration-worthy. But as the clock wound down to 2009, I figured it was only appropriate to enumerate the things I'm looking forward to this tennis season.

Last year was definitely one of ups and downs for many of the world's top players. Injuries sidelined Maria Sharapova, Lleyton Hewitt, even Rafael Nadal for various lengths of time. Roger Federer battled mono for the first half and exhaustion for the second half of the year. The women seemed content to play hot potato with the #1 ranking, while several men did what they could to prove there were more than a few names to keep your eye on.

And while 2008 was full of surprises, there are a few things that I wouldn't mind seeing in 2009.

#5. A comeback for the fallen
Remember Marcos Baghdatis? Jelena Dokic? What about Benjamin Becker? Or Sania Mirza?

2008 wasn't exactly a banner year for any of these players, but it wasn't that long ago when they were all at the top of their games -- and I see no reason why they can't make it back there.

Baghdatis made his mark on tennis at 2006's Australian Open where the #54-ranked Cypriot beat Andy Roddick, Ivan Ljubicic and David Nalbandian before losing to Federer in the finals. He clawed himself to eighth in the world and gave Andre Agassi quite a run for the money in the American's last professional match at that year's U.S. Open. In 2008, though, Marcos played a paltry twelve tournaments, never advancing past the semis and retiring or withdrawing from four matches. Now ranked #98, he's got to come out swinging in Australia to prove he's not to be forgotten.

Almost ten years ago Jelena Dokic shocked the women's tennis circuit when she downed then-#1 Martina Hingis in straight sets in the first round at Wimbledon. She made it all the way to the quarters before losing to the other surprise entrant, Alexandra Stevenson. By 2002 she'd climbed all the way to a #4 ranking but was known more for her rude and obnoxious outspoken father, who was ejected from not just a few of her matches for inappropriate behavior. Now twenty-five, Jelena is working her way back into the spotlight and is trying to qualify for her first Grand Slam since 2006.

Both Marcos and Jelena had a presence on the court that few other players have, and I look forward to see them back out there!

Becker and Mirza never made it quite as high in the rankings, but they both had their share of success and failure over the last two years. I don't think it's inconceivable that either scores a few more big wins, and maybe even climbs into the top 20 before year-end.

#4. Jelena's first Slam
It's been a long time coming.

Obviously the best player without a major victory, Jelena Jankovic proved she could hit with the big boys in 2008, winning three consecutive titles toward the end of the year, and showing off her grace better than most gymnasts could. But while both her Serbian compatriots, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic, took home Slam titles last year, Jelena had to settle for the runner-up trophy in New York.



Her best chance for glory will come early in 2009, I feel, at this month's Austalian Open. Serena Williams has already pulled out of the Hopman Cup which begins on Saturday due to a persistent hamstring injury, and defending champion Maria Sharapova could be a bit rusty -- she hasn't played a match since August. Venus Williams is less of a threat Down Under, making it to the quarterfinals only once in the last five years, and Dinara Safina has never won more than two matches in Melbourne.

With her heaviest competition less of a threat, it might be a straight shot to Jelena's first Grand Championship -- then again, it could prove to be quite a battle.

In any case, I can't wait to watch!

#3. Satisfaction for the J-Block
While 2008 didn't quite claim my dear James Blake as a victim as much as it did others (see point #5 above), he certainly didn't have his best year.

Of course there were some high points -- his long-awaited defeat of Federer at the Olympics, for example -- but last year was the first since 2004, when incidentally he was battling Zoster, where James did not bring home a single championship trophy. His best results were final appearances at Delray Beach (where he lost to the Japanese phenom Kei Nishikori) and Houston (defeated by first-time Davis Cup competitor Marcel Granollers). In the end, Blake did manage to hold onto his spot among the tennis elite, though he did fall out of the top ten from time to time -- and his ever-loyal fan club was silenced more often than not.

This year I'm hoping for a return to top form -- and something to back up the J-Block's cheers.

It may be too much to ask that James bring home his first Grand Slam, but I don't think a few ATP titles are out of the question. He missed New Haven last year because of the Olympics (a scheduling fact I forgot when I excitedly bought tickets to the finals) and is almost always a favorite to win there. But even West Coast tourneys could hold some opportunities -- San Jose, Indian Wells, even L.A. are within his grasp.

You know I'll be in his corner -- even if only in spirit.

#2. The return of Maria
The women's tennis court was missing one of its most prominent stars for most of the year.

I'm sure a lot of different people missed Maria Sharapova for a lot of different reasons, but mine is simple -- the girl can play.

I once had a friend say Maria was the new Anna Kournikova -- pretty and blonde with no substance. Now I think Anna gets a bad rap, but this isn't the time for that discussion -- regardless, Maria proved she was more than a cute face when she upset Serena for the Wimbledon crown in 2004. She backed that win up with a 2006 U.S. Open title and further solidified her spot at the top when she won in Australia last year. In fact I was surprised Maria had begun 2008 with a #5 ranking. She had been the runner-up at the Sony Ericsson Championships and started out the new year with three titles in four tournaments. By the time Justine Henin retired, though, Sharapova had racked up enough points to regain her spot at the top.

But then disaster -- in the form of a shoulder injury -- struck.

In the latter part of the year, Maria was much less of a force. She lost in the second round of Wimbledon to little-known Alla Kudryavtseva and withdrew from Montreal after playing only one match. She took the rest of the year off to recover but hopes to return to the tour this month. And while I really do love her Canon PowerShot commercials -- and her puppy -- I'm hoping she'll be able to put up a fight in defense of her title in Melbourne.

Whenever she is back in full force, I'm sure I won't be the only one rooting her on!

#1. The match everyone is waiting for
Well, at least the one that I'm waiting for.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have met eighteen times over the last five years, six times in Grand Slam finals. But since August, when Rafa wrested the #1 ranking from the Roger, every potential match-up was foiled. First there was U.S. Open when Andy Murray selfishly kept Nadal from the finals, then Madrid where both were stopped in the semifinals, and finally Paris where neither were well enough to make it past the quarters.

It can only be a matter of time before we see the two meet again with a championship title on the line. As long as they hold onto their respective rankings, or only swap them between each other, there can be no other option. But with Novak Djokovic right on the heels of Federer, we might see the contest before a final -- something that hasn't happened since the semis of the French Open in 2005.



So will Rafa earn his fifth straight French Open and deny Roger his career Grand Slam? Will Federer reclaim his throne at the All England Club? Who knows?

In any case, you can be sure that when the two top dogs do meet again, sparks will be flying.

So raise your glass! There's a lot to look forward to in 2009!