Could This Be It?

One long winning streak is going to end this week in Madrid -- that I can guarantee.

Novak Djokovic, of course, is riding a wave of twenty-nine consecutive victories when you count his Davis Cup wins that capped off 2010. That's led to five trophies on the year -- one Major and two Masters -- and sparked speculation that he's the favorite to end the year at #1. It certainly seems like the Serb is unbeatable -- he quieted critics who contend he's just a one-surface player by taking the trophy in Belgrade last week, his fifth on clay, and he gets right back to work this week in Madrid, where he made the semis in his last appearance two years ago.

Not surprisingly, he lost that match to world #1 and Clay Court King Rafael Nadal. He comes to his country's capital with a thirty-two match, six title streak on the surface -- one which saw him claim a record eighteenth (now twenty) Masters crown. He has an intimidating 93% record on the dirt and thirty-one trophies as proof of his dominance. But only one of those came in Madrid when it was played on clay -- his devastating loss to Roger Federer in the 2009 final was one of only two losses on the surface that year.

And so we've come to the first clay court tournament of the year with both Rafa and Nole in the draw -- and at least one has to lose.

They're, of course, slated to meet in the final, but there are a couple threats to their both getting there. Nadal faces a stacked draw that includes unseeded Estoril champion Juan Martin Del Potro in his quarter. And his 2009 French Open vanquisher Robin Soderling and Roger Federer, never to be discounted, loom in the same half. Djokovic could face a fourth round match-up with suddenly surging David Ferrer, runner-up to Nadal at their last two tournaments -- he's riding a wave of momentum that shows no signs yet of subsiding.



But if the latest "match everyone wants to see" does come to fruition, it might not be the blowout we all expect -- though Rafa remains unbeaten by Nole on clay, he was pushed to three sets in all but one of their last seven meetings. And Djokovic notched his first finals victory against Nadal in Indian Wells. I'm not quite ready to predict an end to the Spaniard's streak, but if anyone's going to put a stop to it, it seems appropriate it should be the man who's already foiled two attempts this year to add to his trophy case.

And whichever stretch ends this week, we can be sure it will soon be replaced by a new one.

The Masters

Okay, so the tournaments contested this week may not boast the highest level grade, but that didn't mean the players holding the trophies at the end of the day weren't the best quality. With the early rounds of an actual Masters event underway a few hundred miles away, we saw the same quality play -- or better -- at the championship matches of 250s in the rest of Europe.

At the BMW Open in Munich, defending champion Mikhail Youzhny lost early and the man he beat last year, Marin Cilic, exited a round later. And that allowed 2004 winner Nikolay Davydenko to power through the draw and earn his first title in more than a year. Seeded seventh at the tournament thanks to a long climb back from an injury-addled 2010, the former world #3 saw his biggest challenge in the second round, finding himself just two points from a loss to Julian Reister. But he was back in form after that and didn't lose another set on his way to the final.

There he met hometown favorite Florian Mayer, a talented right-hander who was playing in his third career clay-court final. He'd made a nice run a few weeks back to the fourth round in Miami, but didn't face a single player ranked higher than him in Munich. He must not have been up to the challenge posed by his twenty-title opponent on Sunday. Though Mayer was able to even the score in the second set, converting his one break point opportunity, Davydenko came through in the decider, winning nearly seventy-five percent of his service points and never giving the German a look at the lead. And after just under two hours it was Nikolay holding the crown and reminding us all that he's still a force to contend with.

Speaking of forces, red-hot Novak Djokovic proved he was in no hurry to end his winning streak when he took to the courts in his own homeland of Serbia. He was clearly the favorite at the tournament he owns and was barely challenged on the way to his fifth championship match of the year.

On the other side of the draw a resurgent Feliciano Lopez finally began looking comfortable again on clay -- it was only the second tournament of the year in which he'd advanced past the second round. In Belgrade, though, he fought his way through three tough opponents to start his campaign -- veteran Juan Monaco, Fernando Gonzalez, making his own comeback, and fourth seeded Albert Montanes. But Djokovic was too much to handle in the final -- the world #1 was within arm's reach during the first set, squeaking out a win in a tiebreak, but took control in the second, winning all but one of his first serve points and eventually improving his record on the year to 27-0 -- exactly the kind of mark he'd want before making his way to Madrid.

But perhaps the biggest statement was made in Estoril, where two A-listers clawed their way to the final. Second seeded Fernando Verdasco, whose play has been lackluster most of the year, found a way to win early in Portugal, and got a huge reprieve in the semis when, after a rain-induded double-header, Milos Raonic -- already twice his vanquisher this year -- retired with a back injury. In the bracket's top half, 2009 U.S. Open winner Juan Martin was playing his first clay court event in almost two years and showed his comeback was for real when he took out top seed Robin Soderling on his way to Sunday's match.

And he didn't slow down a notch when playing for the title -- though he was broken in his first game of the match, DelPo didn't look back again. He only allowed Verdasco to hold serve once in the opening set and took control early in the second. After just over an hour he'd claimed his ninth career crown and, somewhat surprising for an Argentine, only his third on clay. If you were writing him off as a threat for Roland Garros, you just might want to think again.

It was quite a rewarding week for all these guys -- Nole continues to close the gap between himself and the top spot in the sport, which both Nikolay and Juan Martin got themselves back into seeding territory for the upcoming Major. But more than that, they've re-established themselves as real powers on a surface where they haven't necessarily been forces before. And it should make a couple others out there sit up and take notice.

Back At It

It's been a while since either of the ladies who claimed trophies on clay this weekend were standing at the top of the champion's ring. But with one reclaiming a title that was all but stolen from her last year and another marking a pretty impressive record, both victories were more important than they might originally seem.

The draw at the Barcelona Ladies Open was opened at the get-go, with only two seeded players making it out of the second round. With little in her way then, 2009 champion and surprise 2010 runner-up Roberta Vinci was able to take advantage. Though she's lost every match she's played since Dubai in February, she found a way to turn around her luck and beat former top-thirty players like Virginie Razzano and Yaroslava Shvedova on her way to the finals.

There she met an impressive Lucie Hradecka who'd battled her way past more than a couple favorites to make her first final since 2009. But she must have been a little tired out by the time Saturday rolled around. After losing the first set to the unseeded Czech, Vinci won five games in a row to take the second and only dropped two more before finally claiming the title. It was her fourth on Tour, but the only one she's won twice, making the Italian a bit of a force in Spain.

A little further west in Portugal we saw a similar story unfold in the bracket, but in Estoril not a single seed got to the semis. More impressive, the two finalists -- veteran Anabel Medina Garrigues and journeywoman Kristina Barrois -- didn't drop a set on their road to Saturday's match. Anabel, an uber-decorated doubles champion, saw her ranking plummet last year and was close to falling into triple digits early in 2011 thanks to a ten-match losing streak. But with wins over eighth seeded Greta Arn and world #34 Klara Zakopalova in Portugal she finally seemed to be gaining her footing.

The German Barrois had been similarly unstoppable on the way to her second Tour final, ending the efforts of top seed Alisa Kleybanova in the quarters and Elena Vesnina the round before. But again the more experienced Spaniard was able to triumph when it counted -- winning nearly three of every four first serve points and breaking her opponent six times, Medina Garrigues claimed her tenth career title in just over an hour. More importantly it was her ninth on clay, tying her with Venus Williams for the most of any active player -- not bad for a player who'd been so under the radar for the better part of the last few years.

Of course these champions will only face tougher tests down the road as they make their way to Roland Garros, but they've made pretty loud statements this week, and a couple more matches in their favor and they certainly could cause some upsets in the next few weeks.

After all, this is the time of year when nothing is certain.

No Case for the Defense

The first couple days of action this week hasn't been all that encouraging for the players trying to defend titles on the European clay courts. Neither Sam Querrey nor Francesca Schiavone showed up to even try reclaiming crowns in Belgrade or Barcelona, respectively, and Albert Montanes traded up slightly from Estoril to play with some bigger guns in Serbia.

The few year-ago champions left who tried to extend their streaks didn't fare very well either -- Mikhail Youzhny, the top seed in Munich struggled in his first round before falling in a heart-breaker to Phillipp Petzschner in the third and Australian Open standout Anastasija Sevastova squandered her opening match lead in Portugal, making an early exit at the only event she's ever won.

So with last year's titleholders all out of the picture, those remaining might have a clearer shot at capturing the trophy, and a couple have a pretty good shot at causing a stir.

The absence of Querrey might not have too much meaning at the Serbian Open, where 2009 champion Novak Djokovic is the top seed. This is his tournament in so many ways -- he actually owns it -- and though he sat out the first two weeks of clay court season with knee troubles, he hit the dirt running with a straight set win over qualifier Adrian Unger in his second round. Now loss-less in his twenty-five matches this year, he's looking good to win an astounding fifth trophy in 2011, and that should remind everyone he's not just a hardcourt force.

The draw for the ladies in Barcelona has opened up quite a bit more -- with early defeats of Marion Bartoli and Alexandra Dulgheru, only two seeds made it to the quarterfinals. Lucie Hradecka, who fell out of the top hundred after a wrist injury last year, has been slowly clawing her way up the rankings. Her straight set victories over Iveta Benesova and Gisela Dulko prove she can hit, and her win earlier on Thursday earned her her first Tour semifinal since July. And Pattaya City finalist Sara Errani is one of those spunky players who's just screaming to break out -- she dropped just a handful of games in her first two rounds and on Thursday stopped Alberta Brianti's run dead in its tracks.

Over in Munich we saw a similar seed-dopping, but a few others still have managed to squeak through. Marin Cilic, whose efforts to climb into the top ten have come in fits and starts, reached the quarters with a win over Horacio Zeballos. And Nikolay Davydenko was able to continue his comeback with a three-set win over Julian Reister on Thursday. But perhaps the player with the best potential this week is Potito Starace -- after a disappointing runner-up finish in Casablanca, he might be ready to make a statement here.

Portugal has been the site of a few surprises as well, with the three top seeds all losing on Thursday. Jarmila Gajdosova (formerly Groth) proved she was too strong to let personal problems get in the way of her tennis, but ultimately surrendered a big lead in the quarters, and Klara Zakopalova, who'd battled a few challenges all week also fell. I've been most impressed by of Kristina Barrois, a quarterfinalist last week in Stuttgart. She took out Elena Vesnina earlier and today bested top seed Alisa Kleybanova to reach the final four -- with her next match against Johanna Larsson, I wouldn't be surprised to see her go even further.

The men in Estoril have had a little more luck so far -- Robin Soderling looked solid in his opener and even recently spotty Fernando Verdasco was impressive early. But Milos Raonic, trying to prove he's not just a hard-court player, seems to be getting his footing on clay, and Thomaz Bellucci, who often delivers his best performances on the surface, has fought his way to the quarters and should be able to keep it up at least a little while longer.

These guys and gals have a great opportunity to make a mark on their draws this week. They better take the chance now, as the road to a title will only get more difficult as we head to the next few Masters events of the season. But the way they're playing, they just might be able to cause some even bigger upsets down the road.

The Breakout and the Breakthrough

The ladies were out to impress as they took to the red clay courts of the tournaments held this week. A slew of top ten players and former #1s were in action as play really started heating up ahead of the second Grand Slam of the year, just four weeks away.

In Morocco the upsets started early and only one of the top four seeds made it safely out of the second round. One-time French Open runner-up Dinara Safina staged a valiant effort to make the semis -- her first since Cincinnati in 2009 -- but an unfortunate bout of food poisoning ended her run early, allowing world #94 into the finals -- her first since Guangzhou that same year. There she met rising star, nineteen-year-old Simona Halep, herself a finalist here last year. The two had met only once before, with the youngster trouncing the thirty-one year old veteran while qualifying for Montreal about nine months ago.

But it was a different story this time around. The unseeded Brianti, who hasn't been able to break into the top fifty in her eleven-plus years on the circuit, took control of the match early, running off to a 5-2 start before rain delayed play. She withstood a comeback by the seventh-seeded Halep and broke her opponent again to take the first set. Though they traded breaks in the second set, the Italian was able to remain ever so slightly stronger and eventually finished off the match in just an hour of play. It was her first career Tour title, and after nine ITF trophies, it couldn't have come at a better time. It might be too late to really put herself on the map at Roland Garros, but more than a few stars may find themselves on the wrong side of a Brianti upset in the coming weeks.

The elite in Stuttgart were served notice as well. With seven of the top eight women in the world coming out for the Premier event in Germany, there was plenty of talent on the court. But again the seeds fell early -- defending French Open champion Francesca Schiavone, 2008 U.S. Open runner-up Jelena Jankovic and Melbourne finalist Na Li all lost their second matches. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki was able to advance, but in the championship match she faced unseeded Julia Goerges, who'd beaten a tough Sam Stosur in the semis.

The twenty-one year old German has been causing players fits all year, taking a set from Maria Sharapova at the Australian Open and beating Shahar Peer en route to the Charleston quarters. She then pounded Melanie Oudin last weekend at the Fed Cup playoffs, confirming just how strong a force she is. But she was even more impressive this week in her home country -- though she was down a set to Victoria Azarenka in the second round before her opponent retired, she regrouped on her way to the final. Against the top seed on Sunday she held her ground, didn't drop serve once during the match and found angles on the court that frustrated the usually calm and collected Caroline. Goerges won the first set in a tiebreak and worked to a 3-0 lead in the second, then never looked back. At the end of the day she was holding the trophy, easily the biggest of her career -- so far.

It's always encouraging to get that first big trophy -- whether it comes at the end of a career or sets the stage for many more to come. Both of these ladies have certainly put themselves on everyone's radar, and something tells me we haven't seen the last of either.

Back From the Dead

If you were thinking of giving up on the couple of players who've struggled to gain their footing post-injury, you might have to put your short bets on hold, at least a little while longer. Some have been back weeks or months, while others are setting foot on court for the first time in ages. But all are pulling off victories on clay that should get fans to take notice again.

Former world #1 Dinara Safina has been staging her comeback in fits and starts for a while now, and though she made a nice run to the fourth round in Indian Wells, it's been a long time since we've seen signs of the woman who made three Grand Slam finals in 2008 and '09. She's unseeded this week in Fes, but the Russian has managed to climb back into the top hundred over the course of the year. And given her drubbing of veteran Jill Craybas in the first round Tuesday -- she only dropped nine points on her own serve -- she might be climbing even further in the weeks to come. Next up she'll face Alize Cornet, another player who's fallen from elite status and one Safina has beaten in both their previous meetings. She should have plenty of confidence going into the match, and a win may set the stage for a much more successful clay court season.

Over in Stuttgart another player is trying to re-establish herself on Tour. Sabine Lisicki, who had risen into the top twenty-five less than two years ago, missed a big chunk of 2010 after an ankle injury she sustained at the BNP Paribas Open. She returned to the circuit in Cincinnati with minimal success, but finally started putting together back-to-back wins earlier this season, qualifying for Auckland and making the third round in Miami. This week in Germany, fresh off an impressive Fed Cup win over Christina McHale in the World Group Playoffs, she opened with a stunning win over feisty Dominika Cibulkova and followed it up with a straight set defeat of Australian Open finalist Na Li. It will get more difficult, of course, as a quarterfinal date with countrywoman Julia Goerges looms large on Thursday, but Lisicki is playing impressively again, and could make a legitimate run for this title.

On the men's side we've seen top-three player Nikolay Davydenko suffer all sorts of pain since a wrist injury reversed all the success he had in 2009. He made the finals in Doha this year, but still wasn't quite playing at his best and hasn't advanced past the second round of any tournament. He seems to have gotten back on track in Barcelona though -- after upsetting rising star Alexandr Dolgopolov in the first round, he survived a second set surge by Edouard Roger-Vasselin earlier today and has now made the quarterfinals, only his second of the year. He'll have a tough task against Nicolas Almagro, a man who could break the top ten with a win on Thursday, but the two familiar faces haven't played each other in almost four years, so Davydenko could take him by surprise.

Possibly even more impressive this week has been the run of uber-veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero, a one-time Roland Garros champion and former #1 who's launched so many comebacks that I've lost track. The Spaniard had been beyond lethal in the first half of last year, winning three clay court titles and clawing his way back into the top twenty before problems with his wrist and knee took him out of contention in August. Playing his first match since the U.S. Open in Barcelona this week, he quickly dismissed Xavier Malisse and then took care of Mischa Zverev on Wednesday. With a third round meeting against qualifier Simone Vagnozzi, you have to like JCF's chances to go further, and that may reiterate just how much he can still threaten through the spring.

Of course we can't expect all comebacks to proceed without a hitch, but the efforts all these guys and gals are putting forth sure gives me hope that they've caught their second -- and sometimes third -- wind. With a couple more victories under their belts they could not only put up a fight at their respective tournaments this week, but they might be able to change the course of the clay court season in their favor.

After all if we've learned anything it's that nothing is impossible this time of year.

Lucky #7

There are not a lot of athletes, or any type of sports franchise for that matter, that can claim seven-year winning streaks at the highest level of play. But earlier today Rafael Nadal's historic run in Monte Carlo earned him a record seventh trophy at the Rolex Masters and kept him undefeated at the event since 2003.



This year's path to the finals was not without drama. After progressing easily though the early rounds, Nadal suffered a set's worth of distraction in the semis against Andy Murray. The pair traded breaks early in the match, but Rafa eventually got the lead before his level of play began to slump. His first serve percentage dropped and he missed several of the dramatic shots that usually come so easily for him. But the loss of the second set served to incite his drive and everything seemed to improve in the decider. Nadal rushed off to a 4-0 lead before finally closing out the match in three hours.

The unexpected struggle must have prepared Rafa well for the finals, where he met countryman David Ferrer playing only his second Masters championship match. Again the two traded service games early in the first set before Nadal took control and the lead, and after a similar start to the second set, he secured the decisive break late in the match to claim the title yet again.



Monte Carlo has been an important stepping stone for Rafa for years -- his first crown in 2005 set off a career that now includes nine Majors, nineteen Masters, Olympic gold and nearly two years ranked at the top spot in the sport. And while all the talk has centered around Novak Djokovic's success this year, this latest prize in Monaco reminds us all that Rafael Nadal is the only man to beat on clay. As we head into what's so often the most prolific part of his year, I expect to see no immediate signs of slowdown in his game.

And the way he's been playing, I wouldn't be surprised to see some much larger numbers become lucky for him as well.