I woke up this morning feeling like something had changed in the world. And I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who felt that way.
This weekend we crowned two brand new Wimbledon singles champions, both of whom had come THISCLOSE to tasting glory at the All England Club before, but only this year were able to take home the trophies. And after a fortnight that might be best remembered for slippery stumbles and shocking upsets, it was their victories that marked the end of a couple long droughts -- and possibly the beginning of a new era.
Marion Bartoli was the unlikely runner-up here in 2007 -- ranked just nineteenth in the world at the time, she had only just made her first Major fourth round a month earlier at Roland Garros. She found her groove though on the grass that season, reaching the semis in both Birmingham and Eastbourne before beating then-world #3 Jelena Jankovic and top-ranked Justine Henin to make the final here. She was technically the favorite against Venus Williams then, but the on-paper underdog, three times a winner at Wimbledon already, had the upper hand that Saturday, and Bartoli had to settle for second best. The Frenchwoman hung around the top players after that, though -- a staple in or around the top ten through the years since, she took home big titles in Stanford and Osaka, ended Serena Williams' comeback run at Wimbledon in 2011, and brought Victoria Azarenka's miracle beginning last year to a close in Miami.
She was a little slow to start this season, though -- she split with her father as coach, struggled a bit with injury and illness, and came back to the All England club way under the radar. But the withdrawal of Victoria Azarenka and the loss of Maria Sharapova cleared her half of the bracket early in the tournament. In fact, Bartoli didn't face a seeded player until the semifinals where she dismissed Cinderella woman Kirsten Flipkens in straight sets. Her opponent in the final, meanwhile, had been doing most of the heavy lifting this week -- Sabine Lisicki, struggling herself all year, had taken out five-time champion Serena Williams in the fourth round and then survived a threat from last year's runner-up Aga Radwanska in the semis. Though she was playing her first Slam final, the German has had some of her biggest successes on these courts, and might have been hoping to deliver Marion another upset in the championship match.
But that would not be the case this time, though, as the emotion and exhaustion of a week's worth of victories finally got to her. Bartoli had the advantage from the start in Saturday's final -- she allowed Lisicki just ten points on serve in the first set and broke her in every service game. The scoreline was a little closer in the second, but the usually big-serving Sabine struggled to hold in one game after another, and was nearly reduced to tears when she couldn't get a jump on her opponent's game. After just over eighty minutes it was the Frenchwoman claiming the crown and ending a six-year stint as a bridesmaid at the sport's grandest ceremony.
Andy Murray came to Wimbledon this year intent on providing water for a drought of a different kind -- one that had lasted most of a century. Though a Gold medal last summer and a U.S. Open crown a few weeks later proved he had the stuff of a Grand Slam champion, his homeland's Major remained without a British king since Fred Perry last claimed the honor in 1936. He'd made a valiant effort in last year's final, and it seemed this year -- with a warm-up title at Queen's Club and every man who'd ever beaten him here out by the second round -- he was bound to go one better. He had a tough time, though -- surprise quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco ran off with an equally surprising two-set lead in their Round of Sixteen, while super Cinderella Jerzy Janowicz looked primed to repeat his Paris victory in the semis -- but he never faced a top twenty during the week, and was the clear favorite in terms of both experience and fan support.
World #1 and 2011 champ Novak Djokovic didn't have an easy time of it either, though. He didn't drop a set in his first five matches, but faced powerhouses later in the draw, meeting uber-veteran Tommy Haas and 2010 finalist Tomas Berdych before being forced to go the distance against back-in-form Bronze medalist Juan Martin Del Potro in the semis. Still he'd rebounded from long matches to win Majors before, so there was clearly no counting him out.
But like with the ladies, this time was also different. The top two seeds stayed on serve early before Murray claimed the opening set, and Nole ran to a 5-2 lead in the second. But buoyed by the crowd and ready to rally, the Scot won eight of the next nine games to take the second and grab a break in the third. Like in their U.S. Open final, though, momentum seemed to shift back to the Serb -- but only for a short while. Though he saved three championship points in the tenth game and even earned a couple chances to break back, Murray ultimately closed out the three-plus hour match, cementing his place in the history books and finally giving the Brits something to cheer about. It was Nole's first straight-set loss at a Major since 2010, but more importantly Murray's first successful attempt to prove he's no one-hit wonder. He's currently the only man holding two Grand Slam trophies, and the win makes quite an emphatic statement as he begins to journey to defend his New York crown.
Both winners start this week, for the first time in their careers, as Wimbledon champions, a distinction that carries more than a little clout in the tennis world. By ending their streak of disappointments -- whether at the Majors, and this one in particular, or for their countries -- they've set themselves on a new course for their seasons, and maybe for their careers.
What they do with this opportunity, of course, remains to be seen -- but from here it sure looks like the possibilities are endless.
July 7, 2013
July 3, 2013
Which of These Things Is Not Like the Other Ones?
Take a close look at the four men left contesting this year's Wimbledon title. Notice anything?
We have in our midst three former Grand Slam champions...and one dude who's never won a title. Of any kind. Ever.
This, of course, wasn't the semifinal field we expected to see at the All England Club, but even after early upsets punched holes in the draw, latter-round outcomes were far from certain.
Juan Martin Del Potro, who skipped the French Open due to sickness, hyper-extended his knee during his third round match and took another big tumble during the sixth point today against David Ferrer. He said afterwards he had thought about retiring but, thanks to some "magic pills" supplied by the tournament doctor, was able to not only get a quick break, but went on to win an astounding eighty-seven percent of his first serves and close out the match in straight sets. It's his first semi appearance at Wimbledon, but he hasn't dropped a set yet, and after winning Olympic Bronze here less than a year ago, he might be able to improve on that run.
Hometown hero Andy Murray also skipped Roland Garros but, with a title at Queen's Club and after the losses of both Roger and Rafa, his road to at least the final here seemed clear cut. An on-the-rebound Fernando Verdasco had other plans though -- the one-time top-tenner had fallen out of the top fifty, but had ousted veteran Xavier Malisse, thirtieth-seed Julien Benneteau and tricky Latvian Ernests Gulbis on the way to his first Slam quarter since 2010. The Spaniard came out swinging today, too, winning the first two sets off the world #2 before ultimately falling in the three-and-a-half hour match. With the win, Murray secures his fifth straight Wimbledon semi and warded off what might have been -- even with all the other crazy $h!+ that's happened this fortnight -- the upset of the tournament.
Novak Djokovic, champion here two years ago, didn't have as dramatic a day today, but that doesn't mean he wasn't tested. After a tough-as-nails first set against Tomas Berdych -- neither had a break opportunity in the hour-plus opener -- he got down two breaks to the Czech in the second. The top seed quickly regrouped though and was able to close out the match in straights. The win sets up Nole's twelfth meeting against Del Potro -- and the sixth since losing Olympic Bronze to the big Argentine. He'd dominated the first four matches of that history, but stunningly lost in the Indian Wells semis this past March. Djokovic is clearly the favorite here, and probably healthier. But if DelPo plays the way he has -- in spite of injury, no less -- it's going to be hard to get past him.
But the true surprise in this year's semi lineup has to be twenty-two year old Jerzy Janowicz, a man who started 2012 ranked #221 in the world. The big-serving Pole arguably had a breakthrough at the All England Club last year when he reached the third round as a qualifier and took a two-set-to-one lead over then #29 Florian Mayer. But he really started grabbing headlines in November when he reached the Paris Masters final with wins over Marin Cilic, Janko Tipsarevic and -- you guessed it -- Andy Murray. Now in the top thirty, he didn't have to face as many favorites this time around, but he nevertheless ousted clay court specialist Nicolas Almagro in the third round and today beat out fellow Pole Lukasz Kubot for a chance to play for the final. A win on Friday would put him in only his second championship match, but having had an easier time in his quarter and the confidence of the win last fall, he certainly can't be counted out in his rematch with Murray. And the way this tournament is going, I'm not sure I'd be surprised if it happened.
These four men certainly have various degrees of experience at this level of play, with some just being inducted into the sport's elite while others have become quite accustomed to these ranks. And while the remaining field is not what we've been used to at the Majors, all of these guys have definitely proven this is where they belong.
We have in our midst three former Grand Slam champions...and one dude who's never won a title. Of any kind. Ever.
This, of course, wasn't the semifinal field we expected to see at the All England Club, but even after early upsets punched holes in the draw, latter-round outcomes were far from certain.
Juan Martin Del Potro, who skipped the French Open due to sickness, hyper-extended his knee during his third round match and took another big tumble during the sixth point today against David Ferrer. He said afterwards he had thought about retiring but, thanks to some "magic pills" supplied by the tournament doctor, was able to not only get a quick break, but went on to win an astounding eighty-seven percent of his first serves and close out the match in straight sets. It's his first semi appearance at Wimbledon, but he hasn't dropped a set yet, and after winning Olympic Bronze here less than a year ago, he might be able to improve on that run.
Hometown hero Andy Murray also skipped Roland Garros but, with a title at Queen's Club and after the losses of both Roger and Rafa, his road to at least the final here seemed clear cut. An on-the-rebound Fernando Verdasco had other plans though -- the one-time top-tenner had fallen out of the top fifty, but had ousted veteran Xavier Malisse, thirtieth-seed Julien Benneteau and tricky Latvian Ernests Gulbis on the way to his first Slam quarter since 2010. The Spaniard came out swinging today, too, winning the first two sets off the world #2 before ultimately falling in the three-and-a-half hour match. With the win, Murray secures his fifth straight Wimbledon semi and warded off what might have been -- even with all the other crazy $h!+ that's happened this fortnight -- the upset of the tournament.
Novak Djokovic, champion here two years ago, didn't have as dramatic a day today, but that doesn't mean he wasn't tested. After a tough-as-nails first set against Tomas Berdych -- neither had a break opportunity in the hour-plus opener -- he got down two breaks to the Czech in the second. The top seed quickly regrouped though and was able to close out the match in straights. The win sets up Nole's twelfth meeting against Del Potro -- and the sixth since losing Olympic Bronze to the big Argentine. He'd dominated the first four matches of that history, but stunningly lost in the Indian Wells semis this past March. Djokovic is clearly the favorite here, and probably healthier. But if DelPo plays the way he has -- in spite of injury, no less -- it's going to be hard to get past him.
But the true surprise in this year's semi lineup has to be twenty-two year old Jerzy Janowicz, a man who started 2012 ranked #221 in the world. The big-serving Pole arguably had a breakthrough at the All England Club last year when he reached the third round as a qualifier and took a two-set-to-one lead over then #29 Florian Mayer. But he really started grabbing headlines in November when he reached the Paris Masters final with wins over Marin Cilic, Janko Tipsarevic and -- you guessed it -- Andy Murray. Now in the top thirty, he didn't have to face as many favorites this time around, but he nevertheless ousted clay court specialist Nicolas Almagro in the third round and today beat out fellow Pole Lukasz Kubot for a chance to play for the final. A win on Friday would put him in only his second championship match, but having had an easier time in his quarter and the confidence of the win last fall, he certainly can't be counted out in his rematch with Murray. And the way this tournament is going, I'm not sure I'd be surprised if it happened.
These four men certainly have various degrees of experience at this level of play, with some just being inducted into the sport's elite while others have become quite accustomed to these ranks. And while the remaining field is not what we've been used to at the Majors, all of these guys have definitely proven this is where they belong.
July 1, 2013
The Rebel Slam
For a tournament with so many rules of conduct, no one seems to want to follow protocol this year at Wimbledon.
The one thing I -- maybe anyone -- thought was certain this year at the All England Club, was that Serena Williams would walk home with the title for a sixth time. She was, ultimately, riding a thirty-one match win streak coming to the event and had already claimed six titles on the year. She looked healthy, fit and in dominating form during her first three matches, and with so many of the most experienced players in the field falling by the wayside, it seemed inevitable she'd coast to another Major title.
But that would not be the case for the world #1 -- Sabine Lisicki, one of the most promising young talents out there, has struggled with injury most of the year and had fallen out of the top thirty for most of the year. But she came out swinging Monday -- down breaks a couple times in the third set of her fourth round, she held tough to close, saving break chances at 0-40 and again when trying to serve it out, and scored her fourth win over a reigning French Open champion at Wimbledon. While only one of the German's three titles has come on grass, she's now compiled a 17-4 record at this Major, versus just 17-15 at all the others, easily making this the most prolific part of her season year after year.
The win was certainly one of the biggest of Sabine's career, but it might have also cemented her place as the new favorite to win this title -- and it seems only appropriate that the one who ousts the Queen should be the one to assume the throne. It's not a sure thing by any means, though -- two players in the field have Slam titles to their names, and two more have made a final here. There may never be a better opportunity for any of them to claim Wimbledon glory.
But fact of the matter is that, in a draw that's been thrown so wide open, even the deepest of underdogs could make a break for it in the days that remain. And, while the favorites may disagree, maybe that's not such a bad thing.
After all, isn't it kind of nice to see the proper players at Wimbledon get their tennis whites nice and dirty?
The one thing I -- maybe anyone -- thought was certain this year at the All England Club, was that Serena Williams would walk home with the title for a sixth time. She was, ultimately, riding a thirty-one match win streak coming to the event and had already claimed six titles on the year. She looked healthy, fit and in dominating form during her first three matches, and with so many of the most experienced players in the field falling by the wayside, it seemed inevitable she'd coast to another Major title.
But that would not be the case for the world #1 -- Sabine Lisicki, one of the most promising young talents out there, has struggled with injury most of the year and had fallen out of the top thirty for most of the year. But she came out swinging Monday -- down breaks a couple times in the third set of her fourth round, she held tough to close, saving break chances at 0-40 and again when trying to serve it out, and scored her fourth win over a reigning French Open champion at Wimbledon. While only one of the German's three titles has come on grass, she's now compiled a 17-4 record at this Major, versus just 17-15 at all the others, easily making this the most prolific part of her season year after year.
The win was certainly one of the biggest of Sabine's career, but it might have also cemented her place as the new favorite to win this title -- and it seems only appropriate that the one who ousts the Queen should be the one to assume the throne. It's not a sure thing by any means, though -- two players in the field have Slam titles to their names, and two more have made a final here. There may never be a better opportunity for any of them to claim Wimbledon glory.
But fact of the matter is that, in a draw that's been thrown so wide open, even the deepest of underdogs could make a break for it in the days that remain. And, while the favorites may disagree, maybe that's not such a bad thing.
After all, isn't it kind of nice to see the proper players at Wimbledon get their tennis whites nice and dirty?
June 30, 2013
Wimbledon Week Two Preview: Time to Sober Up
So things got a little crazy this first week at Wimbledon, and more than a couple of us are left holding our heads in agony, wondering if we're remembering things quite right. We've only just reached the point in the tournament where the favorites should be getting tested, but in fact barely half of those remaining are actually seeded. And while both world #1's are still alive, plenty of others in the draws might never have imagined they'd be standing the second week of this Major. But now we've had a full day to sleep off the last couple wild nights, and it's time we get really serious.
Odds-on favorite Serena Williams has looked unstoppable so far, as should be expected, and hasn't lost a set yet, while, somewhat surprisingly, last year's runner-up Agnieszka Radwanska has been on point herself, advancing to her fifth straight Slam fourth round. But that's not to say their fates are set quite yet. Sabine Lisicki, a semifinalist here two years ago, if she's playing at the top of her game, could give Williams a run for the money in their next round, while Tsvetana Pironkova, a Cinderella at the All England Club a couple times herself, might give Aga a tough time herself.
But the biggest opportunity may lie in the section of this half where no one is seeded. Kaia Kanepi, who made the quarters here three years ago as a qualifier, has struggled to come back from injury time and again, and has already taken out world #7 Angelique Kerber this past week. And hometown hero Laura Robson -- she who ended Kim Clijsters career in New York and then made the finals in Guangzhou, ousted tenth seeded Maria Kirilenko in her opener. She's never made the quarterfinal of a Major, but with the cards seeming to stack up in her favor this week, it might just be time for a real breakthrough.
The bottom half of the women's draw has a couple more holes poked in it. With both favorites Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova out by the second round, the top seed remaining is 2011 champion Petra Kvitova -- a winner here, yes, but also one who's won just two matches for every one she's lost this year. That could open the door for rising star Sloane Stephens or 2007 runner-up Marion Bartoli. But teenager Monica Puig might have some different ideas -- the nineteen-year-old Puerto Rican, who's fresh off a third round appearance at Roland Garros, opened by upsetting fifth seeded Sara Errani here. She, along with world #104 Karin Knapp, might be the least likely picks to make the quarters, but if we've learned anything from the first week at the All England Club, it's to expect the unexpected.
The men's draw, if you can believe it, has been even more decimated in the first week of play. Two-time champion Rafael Nadal crashed out in the first round while seven-time winner Roger Federer followed a match later. Their exits, plus that of 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt, leave Novak Djokovic as the only man in the field who's ever won a Wimbledon trophy. But Juan Martin Del Potro, winner in New York nearly four years ago and Bronze medalist here last summer, hasn't dropped a set yet. And French Open finalist David Ferrer, despite having hiccups here and there, will be eager to prove his run at Roland Garros was no fluke. But pressure might be most on 2011 quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic, who's already taken out big-serving Sam Querrey and tough-as-nails Richard Gasquet. A good run this year might cement his position among the sport's elite, instead of gaining him attention for the wrong reasons.
Meanwhile Andy Murray seems to have a clear path to the final in the bottom half of the draw -- the only other seeds in his section are #20 Mikhail Youzhny, who he's never lost to, and #24 Jerzy Janowicz, who'll be playing his first Major fourth round at this Wimbledon. This half is really more about the comeback stories. Jurgen Melzer, out of the top thirty now, hasn't made the fourth round at a Slam in over two years and has mostly faced clay court specialists in the first week, but might be on the verge of breaking through again at the All England Club. And Fernando Verdasco, well out of his top-ten ranking phase, is coming off a quarterfinal run in Eastbourne, and has gotten past Xavier Malisse, Julien Benneteau and Ernests Gulbis in his first three rounds. He may not be known for his lawn game, but he might be able to change that after this week ends.
But there are a couple other stories to tell in this half. Thirty-one year old Lukasz Kubot has benefitted from, first, the upset of Rafael Nadal and, second, the withdrawal of Steve Darcis, but backed up his good luck by ousting twenty-fifth seeded Benoit Paire in the third round. It's the veteran Pole's second trip to Wimbledon Week Two and, slated to meet fellow triple-digit-ranked Adrian Mannarino next, he could go farther still. It's hard to predict his future much beyond the next round, but in a half of the draw that's so incredibly wide open, he might not have a better opportunity to make a stand.
After a week of outrageous results and huge surprises, the second week of this Slam features some unfamiliar faces. And while this is precisely when the favorites should take the reins and remind us who's boss, the upstarts need to make sure their hangovers don't get in the way of the success they've had.
Because there's a lot on the line the next couple days, and something tells me we'll all want to remember what's coming next.
Odds-on favorite Serena Williams has looked unstoppable so far, as should be expected, and hasn't lost a set yet, while, somewhat surprisingly, last year's runner-up Agnieszka Radwanska has been on point herself, advancing to her fifth straight Slam fourth round. But that's not to say their fates are set quite yet. Sabine Lisicki, a semifinalist here two years ago, if she's playing at the top of her game, could give Williams a run for the money in their next round, while Tsvetana Pironkova, a Cinderella at the All England Club a couple times herself, might give Aga a tough time herself.
But the biggest opportunity may lie in the section of this half where no one is seeded. Kaia Kanepi, who made the quarters here three years ago as a qualifier, has struggled to come back from injury time and again, and has already taken out world #7 Angelique Kerber this past week. And hometown hero Laura Robson -- she who ended Kim Clijsters career in New York and then made the finals in Guangzhou, ousted tenth seeded Maria Kirilenko in her opener. She's never made the quarterfinal of a Major, but with the cards seeming to stack up in her favor this week, it might just be time for a real breakthrough.
The bottom half of the women's draw has a couple more holes poked in it. With both favorites Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova out by the second round, the top seed remaining is 2011 champion Petra Kvitova -- a winner here, yes, but also one who's won just two matches for every one she's lost this year. That could open the door for rising star Sloane Stephens or 2007 runner-up Marion Bartoli. But teenager Monica Puig might have some different ideas -- the nineteen-year-old Puerto Rican, who's fresh off a third round appearance at Roland Garros, opened by upsetting fifth seeded Sara Errani here. She, along with world #104 Karin Knapp, might be the least likely picks to make the quarters, but if we've learned anything from the first week at the All England Club, it's to expect the unexpected.
The men's draw, if you can believe it, has been even more decimated in the first week of play. Two-time champion Rafael Nadal crashed out in the first round while seven-time winner Roger Federer followed a match later. Their exits, plus that of 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt, leave Novak Djokovic as the only man in the field who's ever won a Wimbledon trophy. But Juan Martin Del Potro, winner in New York nearly four years ago and Bronze medalist here last summer, hasn't dropped a set yet. And French Open finalist David Ferrer, despite having hiccups here and there, will be eager to prove his run at Roland Garros was no fluke. But pressure might be most on 2011 quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic, who's already taken out big-serving Sam Querrey and tough-as-nails Richard Gasquet. A good run this year might cement his position among the sport's elite, instead of gaining him attention for the wrong reasons.
Meanwhile Andy Murray seems to have a clear path to the final in the bottom half of the draw -- the only other seeds in his section are #20 Mikhail Youzhny, who he's never lost to, and #24 Jerzy Janowicz, who'll be playing his first Major fourth round at this Wimbledon. This half is really more about the comeback stories. Jurgen Melzer, out of the top thirty now, hasn't made the fourth round at a Slam in over two years and has mostly faced clay court specialists in the first week, but might be on the verge of breaking through again at the All England Club. And Fernando Verdasco, well out of his top-ten ranking phase, is coming off a quarterfinal run in Eastbourne, and has gotten past Xavier Malisse, Julien Benneteau and Ernests Gulbis in his first three rounds. He may not be known for his lawn game, but he might be able to change that after this week ends.
But there are a couple other stories to tell in this half. Thirty-one year old Lukasz Kubot has benefitted from, first, the upset of Rafael Nadal and, second, the withdrawal of Steve Darcis, but backed up his good luck by ousting twenty-fifth seeded Benoit Paire in the third round. It's the veteran Pole's second trip to Wimbledon Week Two and, slated to meet fellow triple-digit-ranked Adrian Mannarino next, he could go farther still. It's hard to predict his future much beyond the next round, but in a half of the draw that's so incredibly wide open, he might not have a better opportunity to make a stand.
After a week of outrageous results and huge surprises, the second week of this Slam features some unfamiliar faces. And while this is precisely when the favorites should take the reins and remind us who's boss, the upstarts need to make sure their hangovers don't get in the way of the success they've had.
Because there's a lot on the line the next couple days, and something tells me we'll all want to remember what's coming next.
June 26, 2013
Who's Safe Now?
It's funny -- clay courts have a reputation for really messing with players' games. But some of the weirdest days in tennis the past year have come on the grass. And over the last couple days, we've seen the lawns of the All England Club take quite a toll on the draws, and even though it hasn't rained yet, the outlook at Wimbledon has never been more cloudy.
The upsets started early and came often. Rafael Nadal, fresh off his reaffirming, record-crushing eighth Roland Garros crown, was shocked on Day One when world #135 Steve Darcis handed him the only Major first round loss of his career, and fifth seeded Sara Errani -- admittedly never a force on the grass -- was summarily dismissed by Puerto Rican teenager Monica Puig. And while they were the highest-ranked causalities that day, the ghouls that haunted early round matches lingered a while longer.
Recent world #1 Victoria Azarenka took quite a spill when up a set and a break against Portugal's Maria Joao Koehler, requiring a long medical timeout before completing her match. The knee injury proved too much, though, and she pulled out before this morning's second round. And Darcis, having scored the second top-ten victory of his career -- he beat Tomas Berdych last year in Winston-Salem -- also gave Lukasz Kubot a free pass to Round Three. They, along with Marin Cilic, John Isner and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, made today one of the most anti-prolific days I can remember at a Slam.
But it didn't stop there.
Black Wednesday saw a slew of former champions pack their bags, not because of injury or slippery turf, but due to the pure skill and strength of their opponents. Lleyton Hewitt, champion here over a decade ago, was coming off an upset over Den Bosch runner-up Stanislas Wawrinka, was upended by little known Dustin Brown, ranked just inside the top two hundred. Then 2004 champ and 2011 runner-up Maria Sharapova, hampered by hip injury late in her match, fell in straight sets to Michelle Larcher de Brito, her worst loss at a Major in five years. But perhaps most shocking was the departure of seven-time champion Roger Federer, who lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, previously 0-20 against top-ten players.
With so many surprises in just a few days' time, it seems even the things we thought we knew have come into question. Heavy favorite Serena Williams dominated her most recent meeting with second-round opponent Caroline Garcia, dropping just three games to the woman who once nearly beat Sharapova in Paris. But after winning her way through qualifying rounds, the French teenager took out 2008 semifinalist Jie Zheng in her opener, and might be able to take advantage of whatever magic has touched these courts. And Andy Murray, hoping to continue a seven match win streak at the All England club, is suddenly in a half with no one ranked in the top ten. But he could faces threats from any of several remaining -- Mikhail Youzhny put up a fight in the Halle final and looms in the fourth round, while Jerzy Janowicz, who beat him last year at the Paris Masters, might just challenge him in the semis.
It's easy to assume the favorites will thrive at Wimbledon, but if the last few days have taught us anything, it's that no one's future is certain here. And perhaps this year, more than any other, a Cinderella has a real shot at becoming royalty.
The upsets started early and came often. Rafael Nadal, fresh off his reaffirming, record-crushing eighth Roland Garros crown, was shocked on Day One when world #135 Steve Darcis handed him the only Major first round loss of his career, and fifth seeded Sara Errani -- admittedly never a force on the grass -- was summarily dismissed by Puerto Rican teenager Monica Puig. And while they were the highest-ranked causalities that day, the ghouls that haunted early round matches lingered a while longer.
Recent world #1 Victoria Azarenka took quite a spill when up a set and a break against Portugal's Maria Joao Koehler, requiring a long medical timeout before completing her match. The knee injury proved too much, though, and she pulled out before this morning's second round. And Darcis, having scored the second top-ten victory of his career -- he beat Tomas Berdych last year in Winston-Salem -- also gave Lukasz Kubot a free pass to Round Three. They, along with Marin Cilic, John Isner and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, made today one of the most anti-prolific days I can remember at a Slam.
But it didn't stop there.
Black Wednesday saw a slew of former champions pack their bags, not because of injury or slippery turf, but due to the pure skill and strength of their opponents. Lleyton Hewitt, champion here over a decade ago, was coming off an upset over Den Bosch runner-up Stanislas Wawrinka, was upended by little known Dustin Brown, ranked just inside the top two hundred. Then 2004 champ and 2011 runner-up Maria Sharapova, hampered by hip injury late in her match, fell in straight sets to Michelle Larcher de Brito, her worst loss at a Major in five years. But perhaps most shocking was the departure of seven-time champion Roger Federer, who lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, previously 0-20 against top-ten players.
With so many surprises in just a few days' time, it seems even the things we thought we knew have come into question. Heavy favorite Serena Williams dominated her most recent meeting with second-round opponent Caroline Garcia, dropping just three games to the woman who once nearly beat Sharapova in Paris. But after winning her way through qualifying rounds, the French teenager took out 2008 semifinalist Jie Zheng in her opener, and might be able to take advantage of whatever magic has touched these courts. And Andy Murray, hoping to continue a seven match win streak at the All England club, is suddenly in a half with no one ranked in the top ten. But he could faces threats from any of several remaining -- Mikhail Youzhny put up a fight in the Halle final and looms in the fourth round, while Jerzy Janowicz, who beat him last year at the Paris Masters, might just challenge him in the semis.
It's easy to assume the favorites will thrive at Wimbledon, but if the last few days have taught us anything, it's that no one's future is certain here. And perhaps this year, more than any other, a Cinderella has a real shot at becoming royalty.
June 23, 2013
Wimbledon Preview: Cinderella Stories
If it's going to happen anywhere, it's probably going to happen at the All England Club -- year after year at Wimbledon we've seen unknown players emerge as the sport's newest stars. And while the favorites will certainly have the upper hand at the season's next Grand Slam, there's still plenty of room for up-and-comers to cause a little bit of trouble. So let's take a look at who not only could cause the biggest upsets in the draw, but also have the potential to put together runs that really put them on the radar.
The Men
First Quarter
Top seed and 2011 champion Novak Djokovic and 2010 finalist Tomas Berdych are slated to meet in the quarterfinals here, but that's not necessarily set in stone. Both open against barely unseeded players -- Nole against Florian Mayer who, last year, made the elite eight, and the Czech against world #35 Martin Klizan -- and could be tested early. Still, the experience of these champions on the big stage should be enough to get them through early rounds.
But other players have a big opportunity in this section -- Eastbourne champion Feliciano Lopez opens against Gilles Simon in a rematch of the Aegon final and, if he's able to keep momentum on his side, might not only be able to repeat, but also get in a couple more wins here. And Ryan Harrison, long held up as the next big thing in American tennis, has had a couple of close calls at being a Slam Cinderella. He's had the bad luck of facing a top ten player during his first two matches in six of the last nine Majors, and this time is relatively lucky to be dealt world #27 Jeremy Chardy in his opener. If he gets in a few big wins he could finally have the break we've been waiting for.
Also in this section of the draw is surprise 2011 quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic. He did win his first career title in Sydney this year, but has since fallen out of the top sixty and is gaining more headlines because of his father's off-court antics. It'll be interesting to see if he can rise above, or if he'll be the latest to suffer for the sins of a parent.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (21) Sam Querrey vs. Feliciano Lopez
I wanted Sam to get this far in Australia, too, and he fell short there too. But he has had some of his best Major results in London -- as well as a title at Queen's Club. If he survives an opener against Tomic, he might just get the confidence he needs to put together a run here.
Second Quarter
Andy Murray arrives at Wimbledon this year, not only a Grand Slam champion for the first time in his career, but also an Olympic Gold medalist, and having added another title at Queen Club, he's riding a pretty nice streak as he heads to his homeland. He opens against Benjamin Becker, a man he beat fairly handily in London, and the first seed he should face is world #29 Tommy Robredo. But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, his likely quarterfinal opponent, has made the semis his last two trips here, and may not be willing to relinquish his claim to the final four.
Still the road may not be that easy. Tsonga faces a first round match against last year's semi-Cinderella David Goffin, who's now trying to end a four-match losing streak at the Majors. Viktor Troicki, meanwhile, is coming off a nice run in Paris, and could get the upper hand over compatriot Janko Tipsarevic, while Ernests Gulbis, having won a second title in Delray in March, might finally be ready for his Slam breakthrough. And players like Fernando Verdasco, who made a nice run to the Eastbourne semis, and 's-Hertogenbosch semifinalist Xavier Malisse -- who are, unfortunately, meeting in the first round -- would both like to keep their momentum going at the All England Club.
But maybe the biggest surprise will come from a man who once spent half a day playing here and didn't even get out of the first round. Nicolas Mahut is coming off a huge win in Den Bosch -- his first career title -- having contested his third final on grass. Seeming to have rebounded from that marathon better than eventual winner John Isner, he could easily win his first few rounds -- and slated to meet Murray in the third, he should bring with him the confidence that helped him get a win over the world #2 last year at Queen's Club.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (20) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Youzhny was once a semifinalist in New York and Baghdatis, you might remember, came in second in Melbourne seven-and-a-half years ago. They've come a bit down from those highs of late, but the Russian did put up a fight to make the Halle semis and Baghs, well, I just want to believe his eleven match losing streak is about to end. Both men are probably past their prime, but Cinderellas can come from anywhere, so why not from the archives?
Third Quarter
The Brits might be watching the Murray quarter most closely but this is the one where sparks can really fly. Defending champion Roger Federer could meet long-time nemesis and reigning French Open titleist Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals -- the first time that's happened...ever. The two men who've ruled the sport for the better part of a decade have played twenty of their thirty matches in a final, and the fact that only one of them can make the final four seems, well, wrong. And even though one of the favorites has to go home earlier than he'd like to, a couple other guys could cause trouble before even that.
Last year's giant-killer Lukas Rosol is in this quarter, but this year wouldn't meet Rafa until the quarters. It'll be a tough road for him to get quite that far, but surrounded immediately by a bunch of clay court specialists, there's no reason to believe he won't at least be able to improve on his 2012 run. Elsewhere, Queen's Club semifinalist and 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt will try to improve on his first round showing from last year, but with an opening match against pink-hot Stanislas Wawrinka, it might be tough. And the other marathon man John Isner, coming off a opening round loss in 's-Hertogenbosch kicks off at the All England Club with a rematch against Evgeny Donskoy, the man who beat him there. He continues to struggle closing out matches, though, and on the grounds of his most famous performance yet, it could be hard to turn things around.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (11) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Radek Stepanek
The Swiss has been having the best year of his career so far, and though he was stunned in the Den Bosch final by Nicolas Mahut, he's proven he's able to put together more than a few big wins. He's made the quarters of the three other Grand Slams, but hasn't yet made it out of the fourth round here -- with the success he's been having, he might just be able to turn that around now. And Stepanek, well off his career high ranking in the top ten, has actually made the quarters here once before. The favorites in his immediate section of the draw are clay-court specialist Nicolas Almagro and possible one-hit wonder Jerzy Janowicz, so there's no reason he can't be the one sneaking through the first week of action.
Fourth Quarter
This is uncharted territory for David Ferrer -- he's carried a fourth seed at a Slam before, but I don't think it's ever happened when all four of the big boys are playing, and certainly never having the experience of playing in a Major final. Pressure will be on him and eighth-seeded Juan Martin Del Potro, who skipped the French Open due to illness, to get back in the thick of things. But neither has too much to worry about in early rounds -- the biggest threat is to DelPo who might face 2009 "Cinderella" Jesse Levine, ranked #112, in the second round.
Still, with a lack of true grass court players in this section there's a lot of potential to break through. Last year's standout Philipp Kohlschreiber will look to defend quarterfinal points, but could get challenged early by Eastbourne semifinalist Ivan Dodig, who big be able to ride his momentum to another couple wins. And players like Michael Llodra, a fourth rounder at the All England Club in 2011, or Denis Istomin, who opens against Andreas Seppi, a winner of just a handful of matches here, have plenty of opportunity to shake things up. And low seed Grigor Dimitrov, a hair of a career high ranking, has beaten top stars like Janko Tipsarevic and Novak Djokovic this year -- there's a lot of hype around him, of course but he has yet to make a statement at a Slam, and this might be his best shot.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (17) Milos Raonic vs. (12) Kei Nishikori
The Canadian, with his big serve and power game, should be a shoe in at Wimbledon, but he's never made it past the second round here and lost his opener at the Aegon International to Dodig this past week. He's made the second week of a Slam a couple times, but since his breakout in Australia back in 2011, he's been hard-pressed to recapture that euphoric state -- it would be nice to change that now. And Nishikori, suddenly ranked just outside the top ten, has only made it out of the first round once in London. If he can harness the talent we know he has in him -- he stunned Roger Federer in Madrid -- he might be poised to have that epiphany.
The Women
First Quarter
The way she's playing, it's hard to imagine anyone getting in the way of Serena Williams -- even though she's slated to meet Sam Stosur, the woman who crushed her during the 2011 U.S. Open final, in the fourth round, and Angelique Kerber, winner of their Cincinnati quarter last year, she shouldn't have much trouble as she tries for another Wimbledon crown. But that's the point of this exercise, so let's look at where we could see some surprises anyway.
Francesca Schiavone is unseeded at the All England Club this year, as is Julia Goerges -- both, though, have shown their ability to cause trouble on the big stage, and could give early round opponents a run for their money. And up-and-comers like Laura Robson, Cinderella of last year's U.S. Open, and Urszula Radwanska, both in the relatively weaker bottom half of this section, might be able to take advantage of the opportunity.
Still, they should watch out for Kaia Kanepi, a quarterfinalist here in 2010 -- she's struggled to come back from injury, but did win a title in Brussels last month, and beat seeded Klara Zakopalova in the French first round. And American Alison Riske has yet to win a match at a Major, but she did make a nice jump up the rankings after making a run to the Birmingham semis -- she beat grass-court stars Sabine Lisicki and Tamira Paszek on the way. She opens against inexplicably seeded Romina Oprandi, so it wouldn't be hard for her to finally get a win when the pressure's on.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: Elena Vesnina vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands (both unseeded)
After six failed attempts in finals, Vesnina finally broke the seal with a win in Hobart and proved that was no fluke when she took out former #1 Ana Ivanovic and 2011 French Open champ Na Li on her way to the Eastbourne title. She's been a doubles runner-up here too, so she certainly knows how to win. And BMS, having started the year at #173 in the world thanks to a long battle with injury, is now near top-fifty after a fourth round appearance in Paris. She too is more decorated on the doubles court, but with a first round match against recently quiet Angelique Kerber, she shouldn't be counted out on the singles side.
Second Quarter
Two-time semifinalist Victoria Azarenka seems to have bee a little quiet recently, but that doesn't mean she's still not a force on this surface. The first seed she's set to face is world #30 Alize Cornet, and she should have no trouble dispatching the threat. 2011 champion Petra Kvitova has a bit of a tougher task, with Ekaterina Makarova, a winner once in Eastbourne, lurking in the third round. But neither lady's fate is set in stone yet.
Twentieth seed Kirsten Flipkens seems happy to take over the reins in Belgian tennis -- she made the fourth round in Australia and is coming off a runner's-up finish in Den Bosch. And countrywoman Yanina Wickmayer used to be a near top-ten player. Having beaten Kvitova and 2012 quarterfinalist Maria Kirilenko in Eastbourne, she might be able to get some of that momentum back this fortnight. Sofia Arvidsson, on the other hand, has had less success of late, but having ended last season with wins over Kirilenko, Marion Bartoli and Lucie Safarova, she could have a great opportunity here to turn things around.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (16) Jelena Jankovic vs. Garbine Muguruza
The former #1 has been mounting a bit of a comeback recently, making the quarters in Rome and Paris and the semis in Nürnberg, and could continue that run here. And the little-known teenager, winner over Mona Barthel and Dominika Cibulkova in Den Bosch, seems to know how to pull off some big wins. She should face Makarova in the second round and Kvitova a match later, but if she can keep her wits about her, there's no reason she shouldn't thrive.
Third Quarter
2004 champion Maria Sharapova wasn't able to defend runner-up points last year, or the title she won at Roland Garros, but she's still an intimidating 36-5 on the year -- and only one of those losses came to someone other than Serena Williams. Though she's slated to meet 2007 finalist Marion Bartoli in the fourth round, the Russian's more consistent play should make her the one to beat in this section.
But again, there's lots of opportunity for surprises. Melanie Oudin made the fourth here four years ago and, though she wasn't able to defend a title in Birmingham, she has beaten Sharapova, her potential second round opponent, before. And players like Andrea Petkovic, Donna Vekic and Jamie Hampton -- all finalists at events since the French Open and all in a section where top seeds, clay court specialist Sara Errani and still-struggling Eastbourne semifinalist Caroline Wozniacki, are easily beatable here -- could really shake up the draws if they want to.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: Petra Cetkovska vs. Lucie Hradecka (both unseeded)
Cetkovska made the fourth round here in 2011 and went on to make the final in New Haven. She's fallen a bunch in the rankings, but with an immediate draw that features less-accomplished players, she certainly has an opportunity again this year. And doubles specialist Hradecka, a wildcard at the All England Club, has the kind of serve and power game that should make her a force on this court. She's never gotten out of the singles' first round, but was a doubles finalist last year, and with Fed Cup teammate Lucie Safarova the first seed she's set to meet, she might have a chance to change that.
Fourth Quarter
I fear for last year's runner-up, Agnieszka Radwanska, I really do. She started the year 13-0 and won two titles Down Under and, though she made the quarters both in Melbourne and Paris, it seems like she lost a bit of a step and fell in the Eastbourne first round to eventual finalist Jamie Hampton. She has a couple easy early matches, but could be tested by the end of the first week, and with Na Li, struggling yes, but still the leader in their 6-4 head-to-head, as her scheduled quarterfinal opponent, I worry the Pole may drop a bunch of points at the end of this fortnight.
There are plenty of other threats in this section, too. 2010 semifinalist Tsvetana Pironkova clearly knows how to win here and, though her ranking's dropped a bit, was able to make the quarters in 's-Hertogenbosch. And both 2009 Birmingham champ Magdalena Rybarikova and Monica Niculescu, a fourth rounder at the U.S. Open once, have talent that belies their relatively low rankings. Neither have done well here in the past, but with some wholly winnable early rounds, that could change this year. And up-and-comers like eighteen-year-old Madison Keys and Osaka champion Heather Watson, who sadly meet in the first round, might have what it takes to finally put together a big Major run.
Daniela Hantuchova, meanwhile, made the quarterfinals here way back in 2002. She retired from her first round in Den Bosch, but is coming off an impressive title in Birmingham. She's got a winnable opening match against Klara Zakopalova and there's no reason she shouldn't translate an early win here to greater success. And Simona Halep, who won her first and second career titles over the past two weeks is in the same section of the draw. The 2008 Juniors champion at Roland Garros may be better known for her performance on clay, but after taking the crown in Den Bosch, she might have proven herself more of an all-court player.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (11) Roberta Vinci vs. (13) Nadia Petrova
There is so much opportunity in this quarter for underdogs to shine, I wonder if they'll all tire themselves out after the first week -- so I'm giving the edge to two veteran grass court players. Vinci won the 2011 title in Den Bosch and made the fourth round here last year. At a career-high singles ranking, she's also half of the #1 doubles team in the world and could cause a stir here. The Russian, meanwhile, is a two-time quarterfinalist already at the All England Club. Though she's known for her spotty play, she's also never one to be counted out and might be up for making one more big statement here.
Of course, it won't be easy for any of these players to prove they have what it takes to be the standouts at this year's Wimbledon, but if dreams can come true anywhere, it certainly seems like they can do so at the All England Club. They have, after all, for so many before this. But what's important is not so much what these players are able to do this fortnight, but how they hold onto it for the weeks and months to come.
After all, no Cinderella wants to leave the ball at the stroke of midnight. And some of these players have a great opportunity to cement themselves as tennis royalty for a very long reign.
| The Men | The Women |
First Quarter
Top seed and 2011 champion Novak Djokovic and 2010 finalist Tomas Berdych are slated to meet in the quarterfinals here, but that's not necessarily set in stone. Both open against barely unseeded players -- Nole against Florian Mayer who, last year, made the elite eight, and the Czech against world #35 Martin Klizan -- and could be tested early. Still, the experience of these champions on the big stage should be enough to get them through early rounds.
But other players have a big opportunity in this section -- Eastbourne champion Feliciano Lopez opens against Gilles Simon in a rematch of the Aegon final and, if he's able to keep momentum on his side, might not only be able to repeat, but also get in a couple more wins here. And Ryan Harrison, long held up as the next big thing in American tennis, has had a couple of close calls at being a Slam Cinderella. He's had the bad luck of facing a top ten player during his first two matches in six of the last nine Majors, and this time is relatively lucky to be dealt world #27 Jeremy Chardy in his opener. If he gets in a few big wins he could finally have the break we've been waiting for.
Also in this section of the draw is surprise 2011 quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic. He did win his first career title in Sydney this year, but has since fallen out of the top sixty and is gaining more headlines because of his father's off-court antics. It'll be interesting to see if he can rise above, or if he'll be the latest to suffer for the sins of a parent.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (21) Sam Querrey vs. Feliciano Lopez
I wanted Sam to get this far in Australia, too, and he fell short there too. But he has had some of his best Major results in London -- as well as a title at Queen's Club. If he survives an opener against Tomic, he might just get the confidence he needs to put together a run here.
Andy Murray arrives at Wimbledon this year, not only a Grand Slam champion for the first time in his career, but also an Olympic Gold medalist, and having added another title at Queen Club, he's riding a pretty nice streak as he heads to his homeland. He opens against Benjamin Becker, a man he beat fairly handily in London, and the first seed he should face is world #29 Tommy Robredo. But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, his likely quarterfinal opponent, has made the semis his last two trips here, and may not be willing to relinquish his claim to the final four.
Still the road may not be that easy. Tsonga faces a first round match against last year's semi-Cinderella David Goffin, who's now trying to end a four-match losing streak at the Majors. Viktor Troicki, meanwhile, is coming off a nice run in Paris, and could get the upper hand over compatriot Janko Tipsarevic, while Ernests Gulbis, having won a second title in Delray in March, might finally be ready for his Slam breakthrough. And players like Fernando Verdasco, who made a nice run to the Eastbourne semis, and 's-Hertogenbosch semifinalist Xavier Malisse -- who are, unfortunately, meeting in the first round -- would both like to keep their momentum going at the All England Club.
But maybe the biggest surprise will come from a man who once spent half a day playing here and didn't even get out of the first round. Nicolas Mahut is coming off a huge win in Den Bosch -- his first career title -- having contested his third final on grass. Seeming to have rebounded from that marathon better than eventual winner John Isner, he could easily win his first few rounds -- and slated to meet Murray in the third, he should bring with him the confidence that helped him get a win over the world #2 last year at Queen's Club.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (20) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Youzhny was once a semifinalist in New York and Baghdatis, you might remember, came in second in Melbourne seven-and-a-half years ago. They've come a bit down from those highs of late, but the Russian did put up a fight to make the Halle semis and Baghs, well, I just want to believe his eleven match losing streak is about to end. Both men are probably past their prime, but Cinderellas can come from anywhere, so why not from the archives?
The Brits might be watching the Murray quarter most closely but this is the one where sparks can really fly. Defending champion Roger Federer could meet long-time nemesis and reigning French Open titleist Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals -- the first time that's happened...ever. The two men who've ruled the sport for the better part of a decade have played twenty of their thirty matches in a final, and the fact that only one of them can make the final four seems, well, wrong. And even though one of the favorites has to go home earlier than he'd like to, a couple other guys could cause trouble before even that.
Last year's giant-killer Lukas Rosol is in this quarter, but this year wouldn't meet Rafa until the quarters. It'll be a tough road for him to get quite that far, but surrounded immediately by a bunch of clay court specialists, there's no reason to believe he won't at least be able to improve on his 2012 run. Elsewhere, Queen's Club semifinalist and 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt will try to improve on his first round showing from last year, but with an opening match against pink-hot Stanislas Wawrinka, it might be tough. And the other marathon man John Isner, coming off a opening round loss in 's-Hertogenbosch kicks off at the All England Club with a rematch against Evgeny Donskoy, the man who beat him there. He continues to struggle closing out matches, though, and on the grounds of his most famous performance yet, it could be hard to turn things around.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (11) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Radek Stepanek
The Swiss has been having the best year of his career so far, and though he was stunned in the Den Bosch final by Nicolas Mahut, he's proven he's able to put together more than a few big wins. He's made the quarters of the three other Grand Slams, but hasn't yet made it out of the fourth round here -- with the success he's been having, he might just be able to turn that around now. And Stepanek, well off his career high ranking in the top ten, has actually made the quarters here once before. The favorites in his immediate section of the draw are clay-court specialist Nicolas Almagro and possible one-hit wonder Jerzy Janowicz, so there's no reason he can't be the one sneaking through the first week of action.
This is uncharted territory for David Ferrer -- he's carried a fourth seed at a Slam before, but I don't think it's ever happened when all four of the big boys are playing, and certainly never having the experience of playing in a Major final. Pressure will be on him and eighth-seeded Juan Martin Del Potro, who skipped the French Open due to illness, to get back in the thick of things. But neither has too much to worry about in early rounds -- the biggest threat is to DelPo who might face 2009 "Cinderella" Jesse Levine, ranked #112, in the second round.
Still, with a lack of true grass court players in this section there's a lot of potential to break through. Last year's standout Philipp Kohlschreiber will look to defend quarterfinal points, but could get challenged early by Eastbourne semifinalist Ivan Dodig, who big be able to ride his momentum to another couple wins. And players like Michael Llodra, a fourth rounder at the All England Club in 2011, or Denis Istomin, who opens against Andreas Seppi, a winner of just a handful of matches here, have plenty of opportunity to shake things up. And low seed Grigor Dimitrov, a hair of a career high ranking, has beaten top stars like Janko Tipsarevic and Novak Djokovic this year -- there's a lot of hype around him, of course but he has yet to make a statement at a Slam, and this might be his best shot.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (17) Milos Raonic vs. (12) Kei Nishikori
The Canadian, with his big serve and power game, should be a shoe in at Wimbledon, but he's never made it past the second round here and lost his opener at the Aegon International to Dodig this past week. He's made the second week of a Slam a couple times, but since his breakout in Australia back in 2011, he's been hard-pressed to recapture that euphoric state -- it would be nice to change that now. And Nishikori, suddenly ranked just outside the top ten, has only made it out of the first round once in London. If he can harness the talent we know he has in him -- he stunned Roger Federer in Madrid -- he might be poised to have that epiphany.
First Quarter
The way she's playing, it's hard to imagine anyone getting in the way of Serena Williams -- even though she's slated to meet Sam Stosur, the woman who crushed her during the 2011 U.S. Open final, in the fourth round, and Angelique Kerber, winner of their Cincinnati quarter last year, she shouldn't have much trouble as she tries for another Wimbledon crown. But that's the point of this exercise, so let's look at where we could see some surprises anyway.
Francesca Schiavone is unseeded at the All England Club this year, as is Julia Goerges -- both, though, have shown their ability to cause trouble on the big stage, and could give early round opponents a run for their money. And up-and-comers like Laura Robson, Cinderella of last year's U.S. Open, and Urszula Radwanska, both in the relatively weaker bottom half of this section, might be able to take advantage of the opportunity.
Still, they should watch out for Kaia Kanepi, a quarterfinalist here in 2010 -- she's struggled to come back from injury, but did win a title in Brussels last month, and beat seeded Klara Zakopalova in the French first round. And American Alison Riske has yet to win a match at a Major, but she did make a nice jump up the rankings after making a run to the Birmingham semis -- she beat grass-court stars Sabine Lisicki and Tamira Paszek on the way. She opens against inexplicably seeded Romina Oprandi, so it wouldn't be hard for her to finally get a win when the pressure's on.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: Elena Vesnina vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands (both unseeded)
After six failed attempts in finals, Vesnina finally broke the seal with a win in Hobart and proved that was no fluke when she took out former #1 Ana Ivanovic and 2011 French Open champ Na Li on her way to the Eastbourne title. She's been a doubles runner-up here too, so she certainly knows how to win. And BMS, having started the year at #173 in the world thanks to a long battle with injury, is now near top-fifty after a fourth round appearance in Paris. She too is more decorated on the doubles court, but with a first round match against recently quiet Angelique Kerber, she shouldn't be counted out on the singles side.
Two-time semifinalist Victoria Azarenka seems to have bee a little quiet recently, but that doesn't mean she's still not a force on this surface. The first seed she's set to face is world #30 Alize Cornet, and she should have no trouble dispatching the threat. 2011 champion Petra Kvitova has a bit of a tougher task, with Ekaterina Makarova, a winner once in Eastbourne, lurking in the third round. But neither lady's fate is set in stone yet.
Twentieth seed Kirsten Flipkens seems happy to take over the reins in Belgian tennis -- she made the fourth round in Australia and is coming off a runner's-up finish in Den Bosch. And countrywoman Yanina Wickmayer used to be a near top-ten player. Having beaten Kvitova and 2012 quarterfinalist Maria Kirilenko in Eastbourne, she might be able to get some of that momentum back this fortnight. Sofia Arvidsson, on the other hand, has had less success of late, but having ended last season with wins over Kirilenko, Marion Bartoli and Lucie Safarova, she could have a great opportunity here to turn things around.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (16) Jelena Jankovic vs. Garbine Muguruza
The former #1 has been mounting a bit of a comeback recently, making the quarters in Rome and Paris and the semis in Nürnberg, and could continue that run here. And the little-known teenager, winner over Mona Barthel and Dominika Cibulkova in Den Bosch, seems to know how to pull off some big wins. She should face Makarova in the second round and Kvitova a match later, but if she can keep her wits about her, there's no reason she shouldn't thrive.
2004 champion Maria Sharapova wasn't able to defend runner-up points last year, or the title she won at Roland Garros, but she's still an intimidating 36-5 on the year -- and only one of those losses came to someone other than Serena Williams. Though she's slated to meet 2007 finalist Marion Bartoli in the fourth round, the Russian's more consistent play should make her the one to beat in this section.
But again, there's lots of opportunity for surprises. Melanie Oudin made the fourth here four years ago and, though she wasn't able to defend a title in Birmingham, she has beaten Sharapova, her potential second round opponent, before. And players like Andrea Petkovic, Donna Vekic and Jamie Hampton -- all finalists at events since the French Open and all in a section where top seeds, clay court specialist Sara Errani and still-struggling Eastbourne semifinalist Caroline Wozniacki, are easily beatable here -- could really shake up the draws if they want to.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: Petra Cetkovska vs. Lucie Hradecka (both unseeded)
Cetkovska made the fourth round here in 2011 and went on to make the final in New Haven. She's fallen a bunch in the rankings, but with an immediate draw that features less-accomplished players, she certainly has an opportunity again this year. And doubles specialist Hradecka, a wildcard at the All England Club, has the kind of serve and power game that should make her a force on this court. She's never gotten out of the singles' first round, but was a doubles finalist last year, and with Fed Cup teammate Lucie Safarova the first seed she's set to meet, she might have a chance to change that.
I fear for last year's runner-up, Agnieszka Radwanska, I really do. She started the year 13-0 and won two titles Down Under and, though she made the quarters both in Melbourne and Paris, it seems like she lost a bit of a step and fell in the Eastbourne first round to eventual finalist Jamie Hampton. She has a couple easy early matches, but could be tested by the end of the first week, and with Na Li, struggling yes, but still the leader in their 6-4 head-to-head, as her scheduled quarterfinal opponent, I worry the Pole may drop a bunch of points at the end of this fortnight.
There are plenty of other threats in this section, too. 2010 semifinalist Tsvetana Pironkova clearly knows how to win here and, though her ranking's dropped a bit, was able to make the quarters in 's-Hertogenbosch. And both 2009 Birmingham champ Magdalena Rybarikova and Monica Niculescu, a fourth rounder at the U.S. Open once, have talent that belies their relatively low rankings. Neither have done well here in the past, but with some wholly winnable early rounds, that could change this year. And up-and-comers like eighteen-year-old Madison Keys and Osaka champion Heather Watson, who sadly meet in the first round, might have what it takes to finally put together a big Major run.
Daniela Hantuchova, meanwhile, made the quarterfinals here way back in 2002. She retired from her first round in Den Bosch, but is coming off an impressive title in Birmingham. She's got a winnable opening match against Klara Zakopalova and there's no reason she shouldn't translate an early win here to greater success. And Simona Halep, who won her first and second career titles over the past two weeks is in the same section of the draw. The 2008 Juniors champion at Roland Garros may be better known for her performance on clay, but after taking the crown in Den Bosch, she might have proven herself more of an all-court player.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (11) Roberta Vinci vs. (13) Nadia Petrova
There is so much opportunity in this quarter for underdogs to shine, I wonder if they'll all tire themselves out after the first week -- so I'm giving the edge to two veteran grass court players. Vinci won the 2011 title in Den Bosch and made the fourth round here last year. At a career-high singles ranking, she's also half of the #1 doubles team in the world and could cause a stir here. The Russian, meanwhile, is a two-time quarterfinalist already at the All England Club. Though she's known for her spotty play, she's also never one to be counted out and might be up for making one more big statement here.
After all, no Cinderella wants to leave the ball at the stroke of midnight. And some of these players have a great opportunity to cement themselves as tennis royalty for a very long reign.
June 21, 2013
Blogcast: 2013 Wimbledon Preview
As the world's top players head to Wimbledon for the third Grand Slam of the year, there's real potential for things to get shaken up this year at the All England Club.
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