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First Quarter
Top seed and 2011 champion Novak Djokovic and 2010 finalist Tomas Berdych are slated to meet in the quarterfinals here, but that's not necessarily set in stone. Both open against barely unseeded players -- Nole against Florian Mayer who, last year, made the elite eight, and the Czech against world #35 Martin Klizan -- and could be tested early. Still, the experience of these champions on the big stage should be enough to get them through early rounds.
Also in this section of the draw is surprise 2011 quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic. He did win his first career title in Sydney this year, but has since fallen out of the top sixty and is gaining more headlines because of his father's off-court antics. It'll be interesting to see if he can rise above, or if he'll be the latest to suffer for the sins of a parent.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (21) Sam Querrey vs. Feliciano Lopez
I wanted Sam to get this far in Australia, too, and he fell short there too. But he has had some of his best Major results in London -- as well as a title at Queen's Club. If he survives an opener against Tomic, he might just get the confidence he needs to put together a run here.
Andy Murray arrives at Wimbledon this year, not only a Grand Slam champion for the first time in his career, but also an Olympic Gold medalist, and having added another title at Queen Club, he's riding a pretty nice streak as he heads to his homeland. He opens against Benjamin Becker, a man he beat fairly handily in London, and the first seed he should face is world #29 Tommy Robredo. But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, his likely quarterfinal opponent, has made the semis his last two trips here, and may not be willing to relinquish his claim to the final four.
Still the road may not be that easy. Tsonga faces a first round match against last year's semi-Cinderella David Goffin, who's now trying to end a four-match losing streak at the Majors. Viktor Troicki, meanwhile, is coming off a nice run in Paris, and could get the upper hand over compatriot Janko Tipsarevic, while Ernests Gulbis, having won a second title in Delray in March, might finally be ready for his Slam breakthrough. And players like Fernando Verdasco, who made a nice run to the Eastbourne semis, and 's-Hertogenbosch semifinalist Xavier Malisse -- who are, unfortunately, meeting in the first round -- would both like to keep their momentum going at the All England Club.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (20) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Youzhny was once a semifinalist in New York and Baghdatis, you might remember, came in second in Melbourne seven-and-a-half years ago. They've come a bit down from those highs of late, but the Russian did put up a fight to make the Halle semis and Baghs, well, I just want to believe his eleven match losing streak is about to end. Both men are probably past their prime, but Cinderellas can come from anywhere, so why not from the archives?
The Brits might be watching the Murray quarter most closely but this is the one where sparks can really fly. Defending champion Roger Federer could meet long-time nemesis and reigning French Open titleist Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals -- the first time that's happened...ever. The two men who've ruled the sport for the better part of a decade have played twenty of their thirty matches in a final, and the fact that only one of them can make the final four seems, well, wrong. And even though one of the favorites has to go home earlier than he'd like to, a couple other guys could cause trouble before even that.
Last year's giant-killer Lukas Rosol is in this quarter, but this year wouldn't meet Rafa until the quarters. It'll be a tough road for him to get quite that far, but surrounded immediately by a bunch of clay court specialists, there's no reason to believe he won't at least be able to improve on his 2012 run. Elsewhere, Queen's Club semifinalist and 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt will try to improve on his first round showing from last year, but with an opening match against pink-hot Stanislas Wawrinka, it might be tough. And the other marathon man John Isner, coming off a opening round loss in 's-Hertogenbosch kicks off at the All England Club with a rematch against Evgeny Donskoy, the man who beat him there. He continues to struggle closing out matches, though, and on the grounds of his most famous performance yet, it could be hard to turn things around.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (11) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Radek Stepanek
This is uncharted territory for David Ferrer -- he's carried a fourth seed at a Slam before, but I don't think it's ever happened when all four of the big boys are playing, and certainly never having the experience of playing in a Major final. Pressure will be on him and eighth-seeded Juan Martin Del Potro, who skipped the French Open due to illness, to get back in the thick of things. But neither has too much to worry about in early rounds -- the biggest threat is to DelPo who might face 2009 "Cinderella" Jesse Levine, ranked #112, in the second round.
Still, with a lack of true grass court players in this section there's a lot of potential to break through. Last year's standout Philipp Kohlschreiber will look to defend quarterfinal points, but could get challenged early by Eastbourne semifinalist Ivan Dodig, who big be able to ride his momentum to another couple wins. And players like Michael Llodra, a fourth rounder at the All England Club in 2011, or Denis Istomin, who opens against Andreas Seppi, a winner of just a handful of matches here, have plenty of opportunity to shake things up. And low seed Grigor Dimitrov, a hair of a career high ranking, has beaten top stars like Janko Tipsarevic and Novak Djokovic this year -- there's a lot of hype around him, of course but he has yet to make a statement at a Slam, and this might be his best shot.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (17) Milos Raonic vs. (12) Kei Nishikori
First Quarter
The way she's playing, it's hard to imagine anyone getting in the way of Serena Williams -- even though she's slated to meet Sam Stosur, the woman who crushed her during the 2011 U.S. Open final, in the fourth round, and Angelique Kerber, winner of their Cincinnati quarter last year, she shouldn't have much trouble as she tries for another Wimbledon crown. But that's the point of this exercise, so let's look at where we could see some surprises anyway.
Francesca Schiavone is unseeded at the All England Club this year, as is Julia Goerges -- both, though, have shown their ability to cause trouble on the big stage, and could give early round opponents a run for their money. And up-and-comers like Laura Robson, Cinderella of last year's U.S. Open, and Urszula Radwanska, both in the relatively weaker bottom half of this section, might be able to take advantage of the opportunity.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: Elena Vesnina vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands (both unseeded)
After six failed attempts in finals, Vesnina finally broke the seal with a win in Hobart and proved that was no fluke when she took out former #1 Ana Ivanovic and 2011 French Open champ Na Li on her way to the Eastbourne title. She's been a doubles runner-up here too, so she certainly knows how to win. And BMS, having started the year at #173 in the world thanks to a long battle with injury, is now near top-fifty after a fourth round appearance in Paris. She too is more decorated on the doubles court, but with a first round match against recently quiet Angelique Kerber, she shouldn't be counted out on the singles side.
Two-time semifinalist Victoria Azarenka seems to have bee a little quiet recently, but that doesn't mean she's still not a force on this surface. The first seed she's set to face is world #30 Alize Cornet, and she should have no trouble dispatching the threat. 2011 champion Petra Kvitova has a bit of a tougher task, with Ekaterina Makarova, a winner once in Eastbourne, lurking in the third round. But neither lady's fate is set in stone yet.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (16) Jelena Jankovic vs. Garbine Muguruza
The former #1 has been mounting a bit of a comeback recently, making the quarters in Rome and Paris and the semis in Nürnberg, and could continue that run here. And the little-known teenager, winner over Mona Barthel and Dominika Cibulkova in Den Bosch, seems to know how to pull off some big wins. She should face Makarova in the second round and Kvitova a match later, but if she can keep her wits about her, there's no reason she shouldn't thrive.
2004 champion Maria Sharapova wasn't able to defend runner-up points last year, or the title she won at Roland Garros, but she's still an intimidating 36-5 on the year -- and only one of those losses came to someone other than Serena Williams. Though she's slated to meet 2007 finalist Marion Bartoli in the fourth round, the Russian's more consistent play should make her the one to beat in this section.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: Petra Cetkovska vs. Lucie Hradecka (both unseeded)
Cetkovska made the fourth round here in 2011 and went on to make the final in New Haven. She's fallen a bunch in the rankings, but with an immediate draw that features less-accomplished players, she certainly has an opportunity again this year. And doubles specialist Hradecka, a wildcard at the All England Club, has the kind of serve and power game that should make her a force on this court. She's never gotten out of the singles' first round, but was a doubles finalist last year, and with Fed Cup teammate Lucie Safarova the first seed she's set to meet, she might have a chance to change that.
I fear for last year's runner-up, Agnieszka Radwanska, I really do. She started the year 13-0 and won two titles Down Under and, though she made the quarters both in Melbourne and Paris, it seems like she lost a bit of a step and fell in the Eastbourne first round to eventual finalist Jamie Hampton. She has a couple easy early matches, but could be tested by the end of the first week, and with Na Li, struggling yes, but still the leader in their 6-4 head-to-head, as her scheduled quarterfinal opponent, I worry the Pole may drop a bunch of points at the end of this fortnight.
There are plenty of other threats in this section, too. 2010 semifinalist Tsvetana Pironkova clearly knows how to win here and, though her ranking's dropped a bit, was able to make the quarters in 's-Hertogenbosch. And both 2009 Birmingham champ Magdalena Rybarikova and Monica Niculescu, a fourth rounder at the U.S. Open once, have talent that belies their relatively low rankings. Neither have done well here in the past, but with some wholly winnable early rounds, that could change this year. And up-and-comers like eighteen-year-old Madison Keys and Osaka champion Heather Watson, who sadly meet in the first round, might have what it takes to finally put together a big Major run.
The Cinderella Quarterfinal: (11) Roberta Vinci vs. (13) Nadia Petrova
There is so much opportunity in this quarter for underdogs to shine, I wonder if they'll all tire themselves out after the first week -- so I'm giving the edge to two veteran grass court players. Vinci won the 2011 title in Den Bosch and made the fourth round here last year. At a career-high singles ranking, she's also half of the #1 doubles team in the world and could cause a stir here. The Russian, meanwhile, is a two-time quarterfinalist already at the All England Club. Though she's known for her spotty play, she's also never one to be counted out and might be up for making one more big statement here.
After all, no Cinderella wants to leave the ball at the stroke of midnight. And some of these players have a great opportunity to cement themselves as tennis royalty for a very long reign.
