The Ascent of Samantha Stosur

For those who don't regularly follow tennis, it might be hard to believe that Sam Stosur has been a staple on the pro Tour for more than a decade. The twenty-six year old Australian played her first qualifying rounds at her hometown Major back in 2000 and cracked the top one hundred about four years later.

While she started to have success on the doubles court and even rose to #1 in the standings, she was having a hard time by herself -- though she'd won a handful of titles on the ITF circuit she'd never won a WTA trophy, and when a viral illness sidelined her for the back half of 2007 she saw her ranking tumble. But Sam's a workhorse, and about a year ago she started to gain some traction and quietly became the best tennis player, man or woman, Down Under.

But it wasn't until Paris when she really began to hit her stride -- just barely seeded at her sixth appearance at Roland Garros, she knocked out a tough Francesca Schiavone in the first round and fourth-ranked Elena Dementieva in the third. It wasn't until the semifinals that eventual champ Svetlana Kuznetsova could figure her out -- and that not without losing a set.

Sam's showing vaulted her into the top twenty for the first time, but she still hadn't captured that maiden title. A couple big wins in Stanford and Los Angeles proved her run in France wasn't a fluke, but she continued to falter when playing for a title. It wasn't until October when she finally had her breakthrough, battling past top seed Caroline Wozniacki on her way to the Osaka title at nearly the last tournament of 2009. It took her a bit less time this year to earn the gold -- I watched the fourth seed in Charleston drub Vera Zvonareva in the finals at the Family Circle Cup.

And as impressive as that win was, Stosur was even more amazing today when she defied the odds and crushed balls past world #1 Serena Williams in the French Open quarterfinals. Though I had picked her as my favorite in the top part of the women's bracket, I was a bit nervous as she took the court. Somewhat surprisingly, Sam rushed off with the first set in about half an hour. She had a chance to serve for the match in the second, but was broken and eventually lost the tiebreak to Serena. A normal girl would've bowed under pressure and resigned herself to defeat -- but Stosur got even more tough, breaking Williams in the first game of the third. Though she allowed herself to get back on serve immediately, the Australian remained positive, ultimately creating two amazing points to break Serena at six-all. After another hour of play, she held on to earn only her second win over the American.

I said ten days ago that the woman who made it out of this part of the draw would be a favorite to win the title in Paris -- but I don't know that I believed it until today. Truth be told, I was a bit worried that fighting through players like Justine Henin, Maria Sharapova and, of course, Serena, would take a toll on the one who eventually emerged. But watching Sam play today, she's showing no signs of letting up. If beating two players with nineteen Slam titles between them isn't evidence enough, she leads the remaining contenders in aces, firing off fourteen in her second round match alone. She's won more than sixty percent of her first serves in all five of her matches and only committed twenty-four errors in her last match.

Next up for Sam is Jelena Jankovic, a woman she's only beaten once in their previous four meetings -- but that win came just over two months ago in Miami. If she makes her first Major final, she'll face either Elena Dementieva or Francesca Schiavone -- both players, you remember, she defeated last year in Paris. Given that line up, Stosur's chances to take home her first big trophy have never looked better.

And to have come from nothing just a year ago -- what a rise it would be!

All Good Things...

A little over a year ago barely anyone knew who Robin Soderling was. But today we know him as the man who put an end to the two most impressive streaks in men's tennis.

We all remember what happened in 2009 when the Swede met four-time defending champion Rafael Nadal in the fourth round. The then twenty-two year old had won thirty-one consecutive matches at Roland Garros and was going into the Major with five titles already on the year. He was clearly the favorite to take home the trophy yet another time. But Soderling had different ideas and after three and a half hours, the world #25 had pulled off the upset of his career. And Rafa's record fell to a "dismal" 31-1.

This year Robin had his eyes focused on breaking a different run. The multi-record holding Roger Federer had made the semis or better at twenty-three consecutive Grand Slams. The last time he lost before the final four was in 2004 when Gustavo Kuerten took him out in the third round of the French. Though Federer had been less than spectacular in the weeks leading up to Paris, I don't think many people expected his streak to end quite yet. But again, the man who never lets anyone beat him eleven twelve thirteen times in a row had other ideas.

Roger began their quarterfinal match up playing like he always does, winning nearly ninety percent of his first serves and committing only three unforced errors. He took the first set in just about thirty minutes. Soderling answered back in the second, upping his own stats and taking chances to push Federer even. In the third Roger had set point, and he was impressive in getting to a smash his opponent fired off. He nearly pulled off an amazing passing shot, but Robin leaped in time to get the shot past the world #1 and ultimately hold his serve.

A sudden downpour halted play for about an hour and when the match resumed, Soderling quickly broke Federer and served out the set, taking the lead in the match for the first time and suddenly sparking talk that he was about to do the impossible. Another forty minutes of play and he'd finally done what so many had failed to do in the past -- Robin Soderling had sent Roger Federer home before the semifinals of a Grand Slam.

Robin's wins hold greater significance than breaking these two illustrious runs. His victory in 2009 set in motion the series of events that brought Federer back to the #1 ranking, and this year, if Rafa reclaims the trophy on Sunday, Soderling will have paved the way for him to regain the top spot. He's also set up a scenario in which he could face Nadal in the championship match -- with Tomas Berdych waiting in the wings, it certainly looks like he's the favorite to make the finals. For so long I'd been waiting for a Rafa/Roger rematch, but could you imagine the tension if Rafa had to play the only man to have beaten him in Paris for the title?

I'm not sure how I feel about seeing the greatest rivalry in tennis shift so drastically and so suddenly, but it certainly makes things interesting in this new decade. Whether Soderling is ready to win his first Major quite yet, I don't know -- he certainly looks to have the talent needed to claim that trophy.

After all, if you can beat both Rafa and Roger, don't you kind of deserve it?

Time-Out: French Open Reassessment

I seem to be doing a little worse in my predictions this time around, but in my defense it is always hardest to telescope results at the French Open. And we've seen some strong players fall by the wayside over the first few rounds and a few surprisingly resilient champs prove they're not quite ready to be counted out.

So with less than a week of play left, I'll take a moment to look back at what we've seen and figure out who still or now has the best chance to make the illustrious final four among the men and women.

The top men's bracket turned out to be a lot less competitive than I'd thought. Ernests Gulbis retired during his first round while Albert Montanes was only able to take a set off last year's runner-up Robin Soderling. A couple other seeds -- Gael Monfils, Feliciano Lopez, for example -- also lost before the third round, allowing Roger Federer to make the quarters without dropping a set. That set up a rematch of last year's championship game which Federer won easily. And while Soderling is certainly a stronger player now, I'm standing by my call that Roger will advance.

Same with the bottom bracket, where four-time champion Rafael Nadal is once again playing at the top of his game. He's been challenged a bit, losing serve a few times in his last few matches, but he still hasn't dropped a set. And when he got past Thomaz Bellucci in the fourth round -- the same round in which he lost last year -- he successfully overcame the mental obstacle and got back to the quarters.

His next opponent took care of the biggest threat in the quarter for Rafa -- Nicolas Almagro, who is having some of his best success this year, simply rolled through Fernando Verdasco in two of their four sets and only allowed one break of his serve. The Spaniard has made the quarters once before, but with recent wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych, Lleyton Hewitt and Robin Soderling, this is certainly his best showing based on skill and talent. He did take a set off Nadal in Madrid, but beating him three-out-of-five is a whole different story. While Rafa may face his biggest test of the tournament, I think he'll back up my earlier prediction.

My next call was negated a few days ago. In a bracket I claimed from the start was pretty stacked I'm actually surprised third-seeded Novak Djokovic made it so far. Of course, his biggest threats had been eliminated for him by Robby Ginepri and his next challenger, Jurgen Melzer. Ginepri, the unlikely last American man standing, pulled off a stunning upset of world #18 Juan Carlos Ferrero while Melzer took care of my pick, David Ferrer, in a fairly routine three sets. Though Nole has beaten the twenty-nine year old veteran in their last two meetings, the way he played in the last round makes me think he might be a little tired. And if the man who beat my choice for this quarter makes it to the semis, I'll chalk it up as a win for me!

The last quarter is much more up in the air. I'd said we'd see a lot of upsets here, and it turns out that we did. I had big hopes for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but he was downed in the second round; John Isner, too, lost unnervingly easily to Tomas Berdych in the third, and Andy Murray, the top seed in the bracket, was two sets and a break down in the first round. Ultimately it was Berdych and Mikhail Youzhny who made the quarters, two men who've met ten times before. And though the Russian has the slight edge in their head-to-head, I feel like Berdych has been just slightly more impressive this spring, and I'm giving him the last men's ticket to the semis.

The top women's quarter was hard to call for the exact opposite reason as that last men's section. There was just so much talent, so many titles, such high quality play that several people said the winner of this bracket would win the whole thing. And after a week of play, that certainly looks to be the case. The top seeded Serena Williams is still alive and playing some of the best tennis in the women's draw. So is my pick Sam Stosur, who handed four-time champion Justine Henin her first French Open loss since 2004. I still think the Australian has a fighting chance to make the final four for the second consecutive year, but I'm a little worried about that call -- Serena's been much more impressive than I would have expected, given her three-month layoff post Melbourne. Sam did beat her once though, last year in Stanford, and she played some phenomenal ball to come back for the win against Henin. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

The bottom quarter of the women's draw was also one with a lot of strength, and I don't think I would've called for either of the two ladies left standing. Fifth seeded Elena Dementieva has had a couple of challenges on her way to the quarters, having lost a break lead to Anabel Medina Garrigues and coming from behind to beat Aleksandra Wozniak, but she hasn't faced any seeded players to advance. Meanwhile, Nadia Petrova took out my pick for the bracket, Venus Williams, in a surprising two sets after saving match points against another tournament favorite, Aravane Rezai. As much as I'd love to see Elena back in a Major semi -- and then some -- I think Nadia, who hasn't beaten her countrywoman in over three years, might be able to pull off another upset this time.

This section of the women's game is where I've been most surprised. Sure, I said the Italians would do well and predicted Francesca Schiavone would fight for the semi spot. But I have to hand it to Caroline Wozniacki, who so many people said should have sat out this French Open. But, boy has she proved us all liars. She's the third seed in Paris, so she hasn't yet played anyone who should beat her, but I thought for sure red-hot Alexandra Dulgheru would take her out, and of course Marbella champ would stick it to her. But props to Caro -- I'm so glad to see her looking healthy. That said, Schiavone hasn't dropped a set since the first round, and wins over a tough Na Li and Maria Kirilenko show just how strong she is. I would love Wozniacki to continue fighting, but I have a feeling her luck has to end sometime.

Not necessarily so for fourth seeded Jelena Jankovic who is not only playing beautfully, but has the least experienced quarterfinal opponent of the top players. Though Yaroslava Shvedova actually took out my choice for this section, Aggie Radwanska, and beat Jankovic in the second round of the U.S. Open last year, so she shouldn't be overlooked. But this is the first time the Kazakh has gotten past the third round of a Slam, while Jelena is looking for her third semi. If she keeps her cool I see no reason she shouldn't get back.

So I'm not going to bother giving myself a score for my forecasts this time -- there's still a chance I get a couple right, after all, and I'll find a way to justify my other calls! But one of my predictions has certainly come to fruition -- this year's French Open has been chock full of great tennis and some very exciting moments.

As for who I think can win the whole thing, well my money's still on Rafa. And, man would I love Stosur to bring it home for the women! But with only a few days of action left, you know it's only going to get better from here!

A Perfect Run

A week into this year's French Open, and some things have happened as you might have predicted -- neither last year's champ Roger Federer nor the King of Clay Rafael Nadal has dropped a set in their first three matches. But a couple less obvious players have been progressing through the bracket just as flawlessly and certainly hope to continue their own runs.

Stanislas Wawrinka is probably the least surprising of that second tier. The world #24 won a title early this clay court season in Casablanca and had been ranked in the top ten just two years ago. He also beat Robin Soderling in the third round of Rome, so you know he's got game -- but maybe you didn't realize just how much. True, he's had a fairly easy road so far -- his first round opponent, Jan Hajek, is ranked #75 and Andreas Beck, whom he met in the second, is seventy-four. His biggest threat would have been Gael Monfils, but a little-known Italian took care of the hometown favorite for him. But Wawrinka will face his compatriot and friend Federer in the round of sixteen, so something tells me his clear scorecard may soon get a blemish or two.

Beating Roger isn't an insurmountable task, though, as Miami finalist Tomas Berdych certainly knows. And the fifteenth seed at Roland Garros is trying to parlay his early season luck into his best career showing in Paris. He's been perfect so far, too, this week, even having an easy time with John Isner, one of the best hopes the U.S. had for a deep run. And though he faces Andy Murray next, he might have the best chance of staying untarnished -- this is hardly Murray's best surface and if the Czech can get momentum on his side, he might be able to pull off the upset.

Russia's Teymuraz Gabashvili has already had to pull off the upset of his career to make the fourth round. On Saturday morning he defeated Andy Roddick in a surprisingly easy three sets, taking less than two hours to do so. And if it wasn't enough, sending home the highest ranked player on the men's side so far, the world #114 had to fight through three qualifying rounds just to make the main draw. By the way, he didn't lose a set in the quallies, either.

Of course, things are only going to get harder from here -- to get any further Teymuraz will have to beat Jurgen Melzer who just defeated a much tougher clay-court player in David Ferrer earlier today. But stranger things have certainly happened before.

And if nothing else, all these guys with their relatively low-drama, short-duration matches, should at least be strong enough to put up a fight!

The Skies Are Clearing

It's not unusual for bad weather to foul up action at the French Open. And this year the last two days have been filled with starts and stops, playing a bit with schedules in the early rounds. But the forecast for tomorrow claims it will be seventy and sunny in Paris, and a couple women will be hoping to show that the rain on their own parades has also stopped.

After making the fourth round of the Australian Open, Alona Bondarenko lost five matches in a row. She's gotten a couple wins since then, but she began to fall from her career high #24 ranking through the spring. While still seeded in the twenties in France, I wasn't sure how she'd do, and as I'd feared, the Ukraine found herself down a set to Vera Dushevina to kick off her campaign. But the older sister of Kateryna found a way to pull through and won her next four sets, making it to the third round of Roland Garros for the first time.

She has a tough road ahead of her, though, and faces fourth seeded Jelena Jankovic next. Alona should take heart though -- after losing to the former #1 nine times, she finally broke that trend with a straight-set win over the Serb in Melbourne. If she can recapture that form, she might be able to pull off an upset, but I have a feeling Jankovic will have a thing or two to say about that.

Elena Dementieva too had been having a rough couple months, most recently losing her opening match to Tsevtana Pironkova in Warsaw. In Paris she's had a pretty intimidating draw, facing a feisty Petra Martic and veteran Anabel Medina Guarrigues on her road to the third round. Though she seemed to stumble a bit when trying to close out her last match, I was encouraged to see her stay steady. Next up she faces Aleksandra Wozniak who she simply dismantled a few weeks back in Madrid, so she should like her chances. It would be great -- if not a bit of a long shot -- to see her back in a Major final.

Caroline Wozniacki played for her first Grand Slam championship less than a year ago, and although she's now ranked higher than she was back in September few are talking about her getting back this time around. Thanks to a devastating tumble in the Charleston semis, she hasn't been much of a force in the last month or so. But she's still been a trooper -- hopefully not to her own detriment -- playing every week since and winning her first two matches in Paris in straight sets.

Unfortunately for Caro, she'll run into red-hot Alexandra Dulgheru on Friday, the twenty-year-old -- her birthday is Sunday -- who repeated as champion in Poland last week, beating three seeds to do so. The Romanian has caused quite a few upsets this season, and she should be able to take advantage of a slower-moving Wozniacki to advance in her French Open debut. I'm just hoping Caroline doesn't do her body any more damage.

Serena Williams hasn't exactly been having a bad clay court run -- she did make the semis in Rome before losing a three-setter to Jankovic. But I'm sure she would have liked a few more "W"s by her name coming into France. She didn't have the best first round, needing a first round tiebreak before ousting world #76 Stefanie Voegele. Next up she'll face Julia Goerges who's never gotten past the second round of any Major. It should be a fairly routine day for the top women's player, but with such a stacked draw, she could use a few easy days at the office.

Then there's last year's champion, Svetlana Kuznetsova, who stopped Serena's Paris run last year in the quarterfinals. The Russian had been playing some ugly tennis over the last few weeks, failing to repeat the success she had last year on the clay by losing her opening matches in Rome and Madrid. She started her defense strategy by getting down a break to Sorana Cirstea in the first round and then faced four match points against a strong Andrea Petkovic in the second before somehow finding a way to pull out the win.

But like the other ladies, her road to the title only gets more rocky from here. Maria Kirilenko, who most recently beat Svets in Italy, looms next and we've seen what kind of damage the fellow Russian can do. If Kuznetsova is going to make her seventh straight fourth round at the French, she will need to up her game to an even higher level.

So as the clouds part over the grounds these ladies will look to continue the runs they've had in the earlier part of the week. The prospects for some are brighter than for others, but whatever the case, it's reassuring to see them all playing like the champions we've known them to be!

Les Américans à Paris

You know the last time an American man made the quarterfinals in Paris? It's been almost seven years since Andre Agassi last got there, and after that no one has really come close. I'm not sure 2010 will be the year, either, but there are some signs of encouragement from the first few matches of the French Open.

Big John Isner was the first to make the next round after the second best man in the country used up just about ninety minutes to dismiss Andrey Golubev. Taylor Dent followed him soon after with a key win over fellow veteran Nicolas Lapentti, a man who had won three of his five titles on clay. Even Mardy Fish, who's been battling injuries for the better part of a year, rallied for a late night, five-set win over Germany's Michael Berrer. Today they were joined by two more compatriots whose performances show, if nothing else, they'll fight their hearts out to stay alive in Paris this year.

Robby Ginepri unfortunately had to face friend and countryman Sam Querrey in order to claim the third American spot. The world #98 had only advanced past to the first second of Roland Garros once in his career, and when the Belgrade champion rolled through the opening set in about half an hour, it didn't look like Ginepri would improve on that record. But finding himself down 0-3 in the second set tiebreak, Robby found a way to rally and took the next seven points from Sam to even up the score. He began the third set by breaking Querrey's serve and didn't look back -- he didn't even allow his opponent one break chance in the last three sets, and after just over two hours Ginepri earned only his second ticket out of the French Open first round.

More impressive was U.S. #1 Andy Roddick who put up his best ever performance in Paris when he made the fourth round of the Major. While Roddick has already won two titles this year and boasts an impressive 26-4 record, few considered him a force at this year's French. He had skipped the entire lead-up clay court season due to illness or injury, and with the record he has on dirt, it's hard to argue that this is his best surface.

Roddick had a pretty tough draw against Finland's Jarkko Nieminen in the first round. The twenty-eight year old has won a handful of Challenger events on clay and had beaten the likes of Agassi and Feliciano Lopez in Paris in the past. After dropping the first set, Nieminen found a way to get under Andy's skin and took the next two from the former world #1. Just when it looked like another American would pack their bags, Roddick went on a run in the fourth set tiebreak and then broke Jarkko twice in the decider to advance to the next round after almost three and a half hours of play.

Of course this tournament is far from over -- Dent will be rewarded with a date with 2009 runner-up Robin Soderling on Wednesday while Mardy faces Indian Wells champ Ivan Ljubicic. Roddick and Isner don't have the threat of a top seed looming any time soon, but that doesn't make their opponents any less intimidating. But though I know it's way too premature to call any of these guys a favorite on these grounds, it does seem that this crop of young Americans shows more promise than we've seen in a long time.

And if one of them should make their way into the quarters -- or better! -- I'd be cheering him all the way.

Semifinal Predictions: French Open

Maybe it's the elusive clay, maybe it's the magic of Paris, maybe it's funny accents. Je ne sais quoi, but for some reason, the French Open has a tendency to offer more upsets than any of the other Grand Slams -- but also the most opportunity for little-known players to make a name for themselves.

After all, Gustavo Kuerten was ranked sixty-sixth in the world when he won his first career title here in 1997. And then there were the likes of Gaston Gaudio (#44 when crowned champ in 2004) and Anastasia Myskina (the sixth seed the same year, but anyone know where she went off to?).

Since then, however, the grounds of Roland Garros have been dominated by two people: Rafael Nadal and Justine Henin. And while they were noticeably absent from the trophy presentations the last year or so, both are back in full force in 2010.

But they won't be the only ones fighting for glory in France. And with ATP Masters Cup winner Nikolay Davydenko, both U.S. Open champs Juan Martin Del Potro and Kim Clijsters, and a host of others all out this year, a couple of wily upstarts may be able to sneak through the brackets.

So let's get to it!

The Men First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

The Women First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

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The Men

First Quarter

Roger Federer of course highlights the men's draw this year. The defending champion has made the semis or better for the last twenty-three Majors, and I don't think he's willing to break that record any time soon. He hasn't won a title since Australia, though, and is showing a few chinks in the armor, so potential opponents may be a little more hopeful. Then again, King Fed always brings his best to the Slams, and with Nadal now holding claim to a record he doesn't own, Roger's probably got a fire lit underneath him again.

That being said, Federer might feel he's on an episode of "This is Your Life" ("C'est la vie"?). Ernests Gulbis, Albert Montanes and Robin Soderling are all in his quarter of the draw. Gulbis, you remember, shocked him -- and, frankly, the rest of the world -- in Rome, while Montanes did the same a week later in Portugal. And Soderling, well, we all know no one beats him ten, eleven, thirteen times in a row.

Marin Cilic is also in this section, but I'm less convinced of his authority on clay. Though he made the finals in Munich, he didn't have to beat a top-thirty player to do so. And some upsets in the Masters 1000 events have pushed him out of the top ten. While I don't doubt he'll become a force in the coming few years, the Croat might have to wait for the hard court season to roll back around.

Predicted Semifinalist: Challenges aside, few people can endure the wrath of Federer in a best-of-five situation. I think Roger will keep his streak going.

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Second Quarter

He's ba-ack! And in grand style, Rafael Nadal has won the last three tournaments he's entered, beating Fernando Verdasco, David Ferrer and Roger Federer in the respective finals -- by no means an easy feat. Not even twenty-four years old, he's already surpassed the Masters 1000 record it took Andre Agassi a decade more to achieve. Sure he still lags Roger in Grand Slams, but he's once again looking like the man I once claimed would far eclipse Federer when all is said and done.

Admittedly a few weeks ago, I was a little nervous about Rafa's prospects, even at the Major where he's so at home. And while it's too soon to gauge his prospects come grass or hard court season, he's certainly shown he can still beat pretty much anyone he faces on this surface. Even still, there are a mess of hopefuls who'll do their best to stop his inevitable run.

Former #1 Lleyton Hewitt could be the first challenge he faces in the third round -- the Australian has beaten him a few times, but not in the last four years. And Lleyton's viability remains in question as he continues to nurse a nagging hip injury. Nicolas Almagro had a solid run in Madrid and followed it up with a couple wins in Dusseldorf this past week. Fernando Gonzalez, who started the year with a couple solid results, has faltered a bit in recent months, including a opening round loss to a triple-digit player in Barcelona. He does have an impressive record on clay, though, and has won nine titles on the surface, so he can't be ignored. There's also Fernando Verdasco, who's been the unwitting victim of Nadal almost exclusively over the last eighteen months -- he's been a top-performer all season too, winning two titles and making the finals in Rome and Nice this year.

But Nadal has winning records against all those guys and he's looking healthy again. So I'm hoping he won't face any big troubles this time around.

Predicted Semifinalist: Rafa, mais oui.

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Third Quarter

Novak Djokovic has a tendency of very quietly advancing well into draws without causing too much commotion. Having ceded his #2 ranking to Nadal a few weeks back, he's nevertheless a force on clay -- a semifinalist in Monte Carlo, he has four titles on the surface as well as a win over Roger Federer in Rome last year. But he can't be too happy with his draw in '10 -- Andy Roddick, David Ferrer and Juan Carlos Ferrero all live here for the next two weeks. Or at least they hope they do.

Roddick has been a little quiet this clay court season, most recently pulling out of Madrid because of nausea. He made the fourth round of Roland Garros last year, his best ever performance at the Slam, but without the same kind of practice as his opponents, I'm wary of his chances to improve on, or even repeat, those results.

Ferrer, on the other hand, has looked stellar this season. After dropping out of the top twenty for a few weeks last year, he won a title in Acapulco and made the finals in Barcelona and Rome already in 2010. And it's not as though he's had easy roads -- he's taken out the likes of Andy Murray (twice!), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco. And more importantly, he remains healthy -- healthier certainly than others in Paris -- and few should feel confident if David's in their way.

His countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero had also been on an upswing this year, claiming two trophies in a row then making the finals in another tournament back in February. He's been a little more under-the-radar in recent weeks, only making the quarters in Monte Carlo, but if he's rested in Paris, he should have an easy enough time making at least the fourth round.

Predicted Semifinalist: Even with so much talent in this section of the draw, David Ferrer has been unstoppable (by anyone not named Nadal) this season. I'm giving him the third spot.

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Fourth Quarter

I know, I know. You're tired of hearing me talk down Andy Murray. But while even I have to admit he does have talent and probably will win a Major sooner or later, I just don't think it'll be this one, this year. Murray barely has a winning record on clay and only advanced past the third round of Roland Garros once in his career. And with a couple early losses on his resume in the last few months, 2010 doesn't look much more promising.

Fighting for his spot in the semis are a couple guys who've been a bit more successful on the dirt this season. Marcos Baghdatis has worked hard to resurrect his career in the new decade, shocking Federer in Indian Wells and even winning a title in Sydney. Though he lost in the quarters of Nice, he could give Murray a run for the money if they both make the third round. And Munich champ Mikhail Youznhy, dangerously close to the top ten again, is also in this quarter. I have a feeling the biggest surprise on the men's side of the draw will come out of this section.

Predicted Semifinalist: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez just barely earned seeding at Roland Garros and won his only title on clay last year. I think he's proven he can pull off an upset or two and may just be the one making it through this quarter.

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The Women

First Quarter

We haven't seen much of top-seeded Serena Williams in the last few months -- a knee injury kept her out of commission for much of the early spring season. She did make the semis in Rome, but didn't face anyone too high up the rankings to get there. The next week Serena just barely got past Vera Dushevina in Madrid before falling to Nadia Petrova in the third round. So I'm not sure just how well she'll do this year in Paris -- the only Major in which she hasn't passed the quarters since 2003.

Add to that the fact that she is in probably the toughest section of the women's draw. Sam Stosur, Maria Sharapova and Justine Henin will all be vying for that semifinal spot -- and only one of them can get it.

It must ruffle some feathers that Justine Henin didn't get the top seed in her bracket, regardless of a ranking in the low twenties. The four-time French Open champion hasn't lost a set here since the Sweet Sixteen five years ago -- the last match she lost was in 2004. So far this year Henin beat both Jelena Jankovic and Stosur on her way to the title in Stuttgart and while she did lose in the first round of Madrid, it wasto eventual champion Aravane Rezai.

And Stosur shouldn't be overlooked either. After watching her trounce Vera Zvonareva in Charleston, I've seen just how well this girl can hit. This was, after all, the tournament where she kicked off her breakout performance last year, and her road to the Sweet Sixteen looks pretty clear.

Maria Sharapova hasn't played a lot of tennis this year, losing the first round in Madrid. But she did win a trophy in Memphis and staged a couple rallies to claim the title in Strasbourg earlier on Saturday. And -- since pundits like to make predictions based on totally useless statistics -- she has won a Slam in every even-numbered year since Wimbledon '04, so by extension...

Predicted Semifinalist: Weird handicapping aside, I think Stosur is playing most impressively in this section and I'm thinking she makes her second straight run to the Paris semis.

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Second Quarter

Thanks partly to an amazing fifteen-match win streak earlier this year and partly due to her rivals' recent struggles, Venus Williams enters the second Grand Slam of the year with her highest ranking in seven years. She hasn't had the best luck in Paris, making it past the third round only once in the last five years, but after her run to the finals in Madrid, she probably has a better chance of living up to her seeding than does baby sister. She has a first round date with another veteran, Patty Schnyder, a woman she most recently beat in Rome -- her tenth win over the Swiss Miss in their twelve-plus year history.

Elena Dementieva is the other big name in this part of the draw, and she has the potential of a second round match with Melanie Oudin, possibly the only woman struggling more than she is this spring. And I would like Victoria Azarenka's chances if this were a different surface, and if she hadn't retired in three matches since April -- I'm not sure how healthy she is these days, but I'm hoping she gets back in top form soon.

Regardless, there are a few big spoilers in this section like Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, the champ in Rome, and Aravane Rezai, Venus's vanquisher in Spain, threatening to upset the balance here. And while nineteenth-seeded Nadia Petrova has seen her ranking drop a bit in the last twelve months, she's certainly one of those intimidating players who knows how to pull off an upset or two.

Predicted Semifinalist: Even though there are some possible upsets, I feel like at least one of the top women has to make the semis, and given the circumstances it will probably be Venus. Of the four, she's the healthiest and has the most experience on the big stage, and I'm giving her the edge here.

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Third Quarter

Caroline Wozniacki headlines this part of the draw, but largely in name only. Since that devastating stumble in Charleston a month ago, she continues to struggle with a sprained ankle, retiring after losing a set to Jie Zheng this past week in Warsaw. After seeing her face that day in South Carolina, I have to admit I was surprised she entered so many tournaments leading up to Paris and agree with some of my Twitter friends that she should have sat out the French, gotten better, and actually been a legitimate threat at Wimbledon. Instead she's awarded with a draw that's so wide open, I'm having trouble calling anyone a favorite.

Defending champ Svetlana Kuznetsova is in this part of the bracket, but I'm not sure she's the biggest worry. Teenaged Polona Hercog made her first Tour final in Acapulco, while Roberta Vinci made a valiant effort to defend her title in Barcelona. Lucie Safarova made a nice run to the Madrid semis while Alexandra Dulgheru claimed her second trophy in Warsaw with wins over Na Li and Kateryna Bondarenko.

But I think this quarter will be a story of the Italians -- Flavia Pennetta and Francesca Schiavone both have won trophies this year, and both have a bit of experience with the other ladies in their section. As the hopefuls in their quarter take care of potential challenges for them, I think these ladies could be the ones ultimately fighting for the semi spot.

Predicted Semifinalist: Schiavone has won more of the pair's meetings, but Flavia has been slightly more consistent of late. This could be her chance to make her first Major Final Four.

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Fourth Quarter

Jelena Jankovic is once again looking like the #1 player she once was. After winning the title in Indian Wells and making the finals in Rome -- beating both Venus and Serena on the way -- she's earned herself the best seed she's had at a Major in over a year.

Still there are plenty of potential problems in this quarter. Former world #1 and 2009 runner-up Dinara Safina could surprise us all and rally this time around, though I doubt it. Vera Zvonareva knows her way around a clay court, if she can keep her temper in check, and '08 champ Ana Ivanovic has been reminding us she's still in the picture. And Carla Suarez-Navarro has continued to surprise me all year, even if she did retire from the last match she played.

Then there's Aggie Radwanska who made a stunning run to the semis in Indian Wells this past March. She hasn't won a championship since 2008, but she's remained solidly in the top ten thanks to wins over players like Dementieva and Ivanovic in the past year. I keep waiting for her to pull out a big girl's title and though she's probably not ready to take it all home yet, I think she might get in a couple wins this run.

Predicted Semifinalist: What the heck, let's give this one to Aggie, with Ana being my close second choice.

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So we're just hours away from the first serves and strokes of the 2010 French Open. And, if I'm right, we could be in for a few surprises in both the men's and women's brackets. As I mentioned in my blogcast yesterday, it looks like Rafa is primed to reclaim the crown which is so rightfully his. For the ladies, a lot of people have commented that whoever comes out of that top quarter should win the whole thing -- so I guess that means this is Sam's year! But who knows -- we've seen so many crazy things happen recently that in two weeks time we might be hailing champions that are completely off the radar right now.

But isn't that what makes Roland Garros so much fun to watch?!