One Last Shot

It's not all that often you see the sport's top players in action so close to a Major, but there's nothing all that common about much these days. And with a host of early upsets and various measures taken around the still-not-completely-eradicated global pandemic, it's no wonder a couple stars are looking for any opportunity they can get to notch a few wins before heading to Paris.

Back in business 💪@Bandreescu_ secures her first win on clay in almost 2 years! #IS21 pic.twitter.com/N3zsFNwXcl

— wta (@WTA) May 24, 2021

Bianca Andreescu seemed, finally, to be getting her game back on track in Miami before injury forced her to retire during the final. Things got worse from there, when she tested positive for COVID in Madrid and was forced to skip Rome due to continued safety protocols. So this is the first time we've seen her on a clay court in almost exactly two years, and it's no wonder she wants to get some practice in.

The 2019 U.S. Open champ hasn't had a ton of success on these courts, winning her opening round during her breakout year before withdrawing against Sofia Kenin a match later. In years before, she didn't even qualify -- understandable, considering she's still only twenty years old. But, in part thanks to the protected ranking system, she came to Strasbourg this week the top seed and the sole entrant in the top 25. She opened her campaign with an encouragingly straightforward win over qualifier Andrea Lazaro Garcia, dropping just three games and will face another qualifier in the next round.

Of course things get harder from here, with a potential quarterfinal against Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea or sixth seeded Shaui Zhang. And second seed Jessica Pegula is coming off a run to the quarters in Rome, where she got the better of Naomi Osaka in the second round -- she would be a more-than-formidable opponent should they meet in the final. But even if she doesn't make it that far, getting a few more wins under her belt will be crucial if she wants to have an impact next week.

Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic has also had an uncharacteristically quiet clay court season. As the man who might have actually become the second best clay courter on tour -- he's got five titles in Rome, three in Madrid, two in Monte Carlo, and of course that Grand Slam-completing crown at Roland Garros -- you usually expect him to win a title or two on clay each season.

That hasn't happened this year, though. After his stunning upset at the Rolex Masters, he bowed out early again at the first Belgrade event in his homeland of Serbia. While he did manage to make it to the Rome final, having to play a double header before the championship match in which he rallied from a set-plus-break deficit to Stefanos Tsitsipas and survived a tight three setter against his Vienna vanquisher Lorenzo Sonego, he eventually ran out of steam against Rafael Nadal and currently has a paltry-for-him one title on the season.

He's looking to get his momentum back as he returns to Belgrade this week. He'll open against lucky loser Mats Moraing, who pulled off a nice win over a tricky Egor Gerasimov today, and will then likely face either veterab Pablo Cuevas or Federico Coria in the quarters. With #2 seed Gael Monfils, the biggest on-paper threat in the draw, winning just one match in the last fifteen months, Novak is the clear favorite for the title -- whether he sticks it out to the end or takes a break after a couple matches remains to be seen. That strategy has, after all, certainly worked before.

Win or lose this week, it's clear both these guys are looking for a little more real match play before hitting the courts at the big event. Because, as we know, everyone in the field is going to be bringing their best and there's no time to waste getting warmed up. So a couple wins now could really pay big dividends in the near future.

Ready to Take Over

There's been a lot of chatter this week, after early and shocking losses by Roger Federer and Serena Williams, about whether it's time for the OG to hang up their racquets and call it a day. And while I think it's a little to early to make that call, there sure seem to be a lot of young whippersnappers chomping at the bit this week to take their place.

Through to her third semifinal of 2021 💪

Colombian teen 🇨🇴 @CamiOsorioTenis defeats Sasnovich to set up a showdown with Konjuh for a place in the #SerbiaLadiesOpen final in Belgrade! pic.twitter.com/m4DFGWVYsJ

— wta (@WTA) May 21, 2021

Some are players we've been talking about for a while, like Lorenzo Musetti, whose win over Stan Wawrinka last year in Rome put him on everyone's radar. He's continued to climb up the rankings this year, beating a struggling Diego Schwartzman on his way to the Acapulco semis, and now sits inside the top hundred. This week in Lyon, he's got the better of a couple other young stars -- seventh seeded Felix Auger-Aliassime in his opener, followed by a three-setter against Sebastian Korda. His win today over Aljaz Bedene earns him a semifinal date with Stefanos Tsitsipas, who's been red hot this clay season. And while the 19-year-old lost their only previous meeting so far, he might be able to put up a bigger fight now.

Then there's Coco Gauff, who seemed to have cooled off a bit since her stunning 2019 season. But she pulled off two stunning wins last week in Rome, defeating Maria Sakkari and on-fire Aryna Sabalenka to make her first 1000-level semis and she brought that momentum with her this week to Parma. At a career-high of #30 in the world at just 17 years old, she took out a resurgent Kaia Kanepi, fellow teen phenom Amanda Anisimova, and, earlier today, Serena's vanquisher Katarina Siniakova. She'll play the second final of her career tomorrow against sixth seed Qiang Wang -- who, you may remember, beat Serena in Melbourne last year -- and something tells me she might be walking away with her second trophy.

But there are also a couple players who haven't had quite as splashy a career yet, but seem to be managing quite well anyway. Paula Badosa is a little older than the rest of these, guys, but she's really coming into her own now and delivering consistently. After a rough start to the season, the 23-year-old dealt a stunning upset to Ashleigh Barty in Charleston and then notched her second straight win over Belinda Bencic to make the semis in Madrid. That earned her a third seed this week in Belgrade, and so far she's lived up to expectations, not dropping a set yet and beating veteran Andrea Petkovic in the process. She'll face lucky loser Viktoriya Tomova for a spot in her first career final, and the way she's playing I can't see her stopping short.

And then there's young Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, emerging as the breakout star of this clay court season. Ranked just #180 in the world when she hit the courts in her native Colombia, she walked away with a title in Bogotá and a legion of new fans. The very next week she opened her Charleston run with an upset of second seeded Magda Linette and continued on to the semis. She still had to play qualies in Belgrade, but kept her momentum going there too, taking out, this time, third seed Shuai Zhang on her way to her third final of the year. She might have a tougher test to make the final though, with a rebounding Ana Konjuh waiting for her tomorrow, but she'll pulled off big wins before and might just establish herself as the spoiler here and beyond.

Of course, it hasn't been all great news for the shiny young things. Wünderkind Jannik Sinner, who has climbed to a career high of #17 in the world at age 19 and has notched wins over Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexander Zverev in the last twelve months, was stunned this week in Lyon by little-known Arthur Rinderknech. And 18-year-old Leylah Fernandez, one of my players to watch this year, dropped a tight three-setter today to Tomova.

And while the veterans may not be ready to throw in the towel on their long careers just yet, they will one day have to, and there sure seems to be a lot of talent waiting in the wings to claim their thrones.

Déjà vu

There was something very familiar about championship Sunday this weekend in Rome, wasn't there? Like we'd seen these two champions sharing the stage somewhere before.

But the return to the winner's podium for Iga Swiatek and Rafael Nadal was far from a sure thing, and the fight they showed to get there proves they both know how to bring their best when it really counts.

Saving MPs in R3 🤝 Winning the #IBI21 title

🏆 @iga_swiatek | @RafaelNadal 🏆 pic.twitter.com/CQayiaS9Km

— wta (@WTA) May 16, 2021

The Ladies

Let's start with the ladies, whose clay court season has given us a varried array of champions all pulling off big wins. But with perennial favorite Simona Halep struggling with injury, and hardcourt powerhouse Naomi Osaka still struggling to get her footing on the dirt, it's been Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka that have been most consistent, with the two splitting the last two big titles on the surface. But the former pulled out of Rome with an arm injury and the latter was stunned by Coco Gauff in the third round, allowing last year's breakout star Iga Swiatek a pass to the final.

That's not to say the 19-year-old Pole had an easy time of it this week. Swiatek, who crashed out of Madrid just last week in a battle of two women who'd both won their last seven matches at Roland Garros, had to fend off two match points against Barbora Krejcikova, a very talented doubles player whose really upping her solo game too the last few months. Krejcikova had already beaten French Open runner-up Sofia Kenin, and came a whisker away from doing it to Swiatek too before the fifteenth seed was able to rally.

Meanwhile in the bottom half of the draw, where one favorite after another was summarily eliminated, it was Karolina Pliskova who fought through to her third straight Rome final -- she won the title back in 2019. But Swiatek was way too much for her to handle on Sunday. The on-paper underdog didn't drop a game in the 46-minute match, barely even lost a point, double-bagelling her opponent in the most lopsided Premier-level final since 1988.

The win, the third of Swiatek's still-nascent career, is her first truly big statement of the season -- she picked up a title in Adelaide back in February -- and should push her into the top ten for the first time in her career -- an honor that seems a long time coming thanks to the revised ranking system. But more importantly it should put her back on track as she looks to defend her big title in Paris. And if she plays at the level she did today, she has a pretty good shot at doing it.

The Men

Things were a little less cut and dry in the men's final, but that's what you'd expect when you have the two best clay court players, arguably of all time, facing off in their 57^th career meeting with another Masters title on the line. But despite their years-long dominance, here too, the road to the final was not easy for either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal.

The top seed and world #1 has proved himself surprisingly fallible in recent months. After his record ninth trophy at the Australian Open, he lay a little low, skipping Miami and not surfacing again until Monte Carlo, where he was stunned by Dan Evans in the third round. A week later in his homeland event in Belgrade, he lost to 2021 standout Aslan Karatsev, and he then pulled out of Madrid.

Returning to Rome to defend his title he played well early, but was caught off guard by Monte Carlo champ Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals, getting down a set and a break before rain suspended the match. He somehow found it in him to regroup on Saturday, get the win, and survive a nearly-three hour slugfest against Lorenzo Sonego -- who, you remember, beat him last year in Vienna -- in the semis. After more than five hours on court, he'd have to get right back to it on Sunday.

Nadal may have had an easier few days recently -- he avenged a loss to Madrid champ Alexander Zverev on Friday and saved all four break points he faced against Reilly Opelka in the semis -- but that doesn't mean he hasn't been tested. He's been surprisingly unprolific during his usually breezy clay court season, with losses not just to Zverev, but to Andrey Rublev too, and he even faced match points against Denis Shapovalov in the third round here, before rebounding.

But in spite of all the drama and hard work these two had already put in this week, they showed up to Sunday's final to give us more. What else should we expect? In their 29^th meeting with a title on the line, Djokovic came out swinging first, getting the early break before Rafa came barreling back. He captured the first set, but got in a bit of trouble when Nole took the second 6-1. It appeared his long Saturday had little effect on his game today and he was back to top shape. But Nadal was able to get a stave off a couple of threats early in the decider and broke deep in the third, holding on to capture the win and get within one match of even in their all-time head-to-head.

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So what will all this mean as we get ready for Paris? Well it certainly calms the nerves of any Rafa fans who was starting to get nervous. And it certainly bolsters the case for Swiatek to repeat her own breakout success. But there are a lot of other players in the wings ready to take the crowns themselves. And maybe this year, more than any in recent memory, there's a shot for a couple of them to do it.

Comeback Stories

It's been a long year-plus for everyone, and tennis players are no exception. Of course the struggles on court pale in comparison to what's been going on around the world, but it's easy to see that some who were riding high at the end of 2019 have been on shaky footing the last few months.

But some recent performances in Rome suggest things may swinging back in their favor.

Revenge in Rome!@RafaelNadal ends a run of three defeats to Zverev with a 6-3 6-4 victory in the Italian capital.#IBI21 pic.twitter.com/VYEfaXc3xM

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 14, 2021

I'll start with Karolina Pliskova who came into last season as #2 in the world. She'd picked up three titles in 2019 and kicked off the new year with another one in Brisbane, beating Naomi Osaka in the semis. But since then she's been pretty quiet, losing early at all the Slams, getting upset by Jessica Pegula (three times in a row!), Danielle Collins, and even then-world #292 Anastasia Gasanova.

She came to Rome the 9^th seed, and while she's been pretty consistent here -- she won the title in 2019 and made the final last year -- I wasn't putting too much stock in her. But she's been on point so far, beating veterans Anastasija Sevastova and Vera Zvonareva before today coming back from a set down to take out a resurgent Jelena Ostapenko, a former champion at Roland Garros. Back in the semis again, the pressure will be on, but she might just have her confidence back to keep going.

She'll have to get past another comeback kid to do it though. Veteran Petra Martic climbed to a career high of #14 in the world while I wasn't looking, thanks to a solid 2019 season where she won the title in Istanbul, made the semis in Stuttgart and the quarters at the French Open. This year has been a much different story, though -- she's got a 4-8 record, with five of those losses coming in first rounds, and she hadn't gotten a win yet on clay, arguably her best surface.

She's turning things around this week though -- after avenging her Yarra Valley loss to Shelby Rogers in her Rome opener, she took out Kiki Mladenkovic (who'd beaten Belinda Bencic) and Nadia Podoroska (who'd stunned Serena Williams) to set up a quarterfinal against Jessica Pegula (who'd shocked Naomi Osaka). Here too I didn't give her much of a shot -- Pegula may be ranked lower, but she's cleary been having the better year. But Martic demonstrated her edge on these courts, knocking out her opponent in straight sets and earning her the first Premier-level semi of her career. And in a battle with Pliskova, I really don't know who has the advantage.

And finally there's a case of, if not entirely a comeback, then certainly revenge. After all, Rafael Nadal is still #3 in the world and he did pick up a record 12^th title in Barcelona last month. But he's also shown he can be vulnerable on the surface he's dominated for the last sixteen years. He was stunned by Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo and notched a third straight loss to Alexander Zverev in Madrid. And just yesterday he was down a set and a break (plus two match points!) before sealing a win against Denis Shapovalov.

That had me worried when he faced off against Zverev for a second week in a row earlier today. But this time Rafa wrote a different story. The nine-time champion in Rome fought off all eight break points he faced in the second set and secured the win in just under two hours. He'll now face Reilly Opelka in the semis, and while the big serving American has been impressive himself this week, Nadal is 11-0 in this round at this venue. Of course that doesn't guarantee a win by any means, but I'm sure hoping he's found the game he seems to have been struggling with a bit this season.

A Few More in the Mix

It feels like every year, around this time, I start getting a little nervous.

However Rafael Nadal has done during the clay court season -- whether like in 2005 and 2008 and 2013 he won basically every event on dirt he played, or like in 2015 or even last year, he won barely any -- you start to wonder about his chances to take home the big prize at Roland Garros.

And while he often seems to pull things together when they count the most, each year a couple pretenders start cropping up that might just be able to throw a wrench into his plans.

🏆🇮🇹
🏆🇨🇦
🏆🇪🇸
🏆🇪🇸@AlexZverev wins his fourth ATP Masters 1000 title 👏 #MMOPENpic.twitter.com/6zabemSOls

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 9, 2021

The most obvious one this week was Alexander Zverev, who captured his second title in Madrid and his fourth Masters championship with a three set win over Matteo Berrettini on Sunday. And while my acknowledgement of his win comes begrudgingly, you have to admit his performance on court was pretty impressive. After taking out Monte Carlo giant-killer Daniel Evans, he stunned Nadal in straight sets, his third straight win over the world #2, and went on to beat two-time French runner-up Dominic Thiem in the semis, avenging that OHSOCLOSE loss to him in last year's U.S. Open final. While he's had a couple early losses on clay before this week, his performance in Spain might have done a lot to erase the memory of those upsets.

But he wasn't the only one to stick out. Runner-up Berrettini has really been showing me he's deserving of his top ten ranking over the last few weeks, first claiming the title in Belgrade and this week taking out tough opponents like Fabio Fognini and Cristian Garin. In the first Masters final of his career, he took the first set from Zverev and kept things tight in the back half too. While I can't say I was expecting him to come out the winner, I was encouraged by the fight he showed and feel there might be a few more top-ten wins coming up soon in the future for him.

And you have to respect the showing we saw from Dominic Thiem, who we haven't seen in action since mid-March and who'd been playing a much quieter season than his breakout last year. After losing early at the Australian Open and then battling through various injuries, there was certainly a big question mark over his head for Madrid. But he performed admirably, taking out a talented Alex de Minaur and even a surprisingly strong John Isner, who'd stunned Andrey Rublev in the third round. While Thiem did lose in straight to Zverev in the semis, it was good to see he seemed to have found his footing again. And, of course, we know that, had this been a best of five match, there's no telling what could have happened.

Maybe the player who made the biggest case for himself this week was young Casper Ruud, who barreled onto the scene early last year and hasn't let up since. While the 22-year-old hasn't added to his trophy case this year, he has scored wins over Fabio Fognini, Pablo Carreño Busta and Diego Schwartzman. And in Madrid, he added to that list, stunning Monte Carol champ Stefanos Tsitipas in straight sets on his way to the semis. Though he lost to Berrettini there, he did earn himself a career-high ranking at #16 in the world. And the way he's playing, there's no reason to believe he isn't going even higher.

So do any of these guys have a real shot at dethroning the king once we get to Paris? Well, we know Nadal is not going to give up his crown easily, whatever happens in the weeks leading up to Roland Garros. But one day soon there is bound to be a changing of the guards, and it sure looks like there are plenty of players more than ready to take up the reins.

A Reversal of Fortune

Remember a couple months ago when Aryna Sabalenka came back from losing ten straight games to Sara Sorribes Tormo not just to win the next twelve and the match, but to claim the singles trophy in Ostrava?

Well if that didn't teach us that the 23-year-old can turn around any situation, then perhaps her performance at the Mutua Madrid Open over the last ten days will.

Aryna Sabalenka wins her 10th career title and 1st clay title @MutuaMadridOpen and will rise to No.4 in the rankings on Monday.

Defeats Barty 60 36 64 to hand the No.1 her 1st loss on red clay since 2019 Rome. Avenges her last two losses to Barty in Stuttgart, Miami. pic.twitter.com/5JMyDm6YTU

— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) May 8, 2021

Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised to see the Belorusian powering through her draws. That recovery in the Czech Republic was part of a fifteen match winstreak between last October and this January. And while Sabalenka has had a couple of losses since, they've mostly come at the hands of truly formidable opponents -- yes there was the surprise upset by Aussie Cinderella Kaia Kanepi, but there were also real battles against the supremely talented Garbiñe Muguruza, Serena Williams, and two straight versus #1 Ashleigh Barty.

Those losses to Barty were important ones. The first this year came in the quarterfinals of Miami, which the Australian would go on to win, cementing her position at the top of the sport and quieting doubters, myself included, who questioned whether she should remain there without having played for nearly a year. The second came in the Stuttgart final, which squelched those who thought Naomi Osaka, laying claim to two Grand Slam titles but having little impact off the hardcourts so far, was more deserving. Had either of those matches gone Sabalenka's way, those doubts about Barty might still exist -- and today's result may not have so sweet.

But as it stood, it was the two winningest players on tour who made it to the final at the Caja Magica. Sabalenka, with 23 victories this season going into Saturday's match, had notched wins over rising star Jessica Pegula and doubles partner Elise Mertens on her way. Meanwhile Barty, with 25, got past the other defending Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek, three-time Madrid champion Petra Kvitova, and surprise semifinalist Paula Badosa. And both had the opportunity to make a real statement as we head into the final stretch of the clay season.

Sabalenka came out of the gate swinging, too, running away with the first set in less than 25 minutes, but as with their other recent matches, Barty wasn't ready to go down without a fight. After trading breaks to start the second, she was able to close it out and force a decider for the title. And while it stayed close in that final set, Sabalenka stunningly broke her opponent at love in the ninth game and then closed it out.

The win earned Sabalenka her tenth career title and her first on clay, and it'll help push her to a career high ranking of #4 in the world, passing Sofia Kenin. It also ended a 16-match win streak Barty had on red clay and a 10-match streak against top ten opponents.

Of course, the real question will come down to what happens on the dirt of Paris -- Sabalenka, for all her strength and ability against the top players in the sport, has never made it past the fourth round at a Major, never past the third at the French Open. I've long thought that that was a streak aching to be broken, and maybe this is the time for it to happen.

After all, if anyone can turn things around, it certainly seems to be Aryna Sabalenka.

The Unlikely Leader

If I'd asked you at the start the year who, a month away from the start of the French Open, you thought would be the winningest player on dirt, chances are 33-year-old Albert Ramos-Viñolas wouldn't have featured high on your list.

Ranked barely in the top fifty at the beginning of the season -- barely cracking the top forty over the last three years -- the veteran Spaniard has long been vastly overshadowed by his much more decorated compatriots, scoring a few big wins here and there, but never really having the breakthrough of his contemporaries.

Perhaps that is about to change.

🏆 Bastad
🏆 Gstaad
🏆 Estoril@albertramos88 picks up his third ATP Tour title with a 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) win over Norrie 💪 @EstorilOpen pic.twitter.com/tVCPezRbIT

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 2, 2021

Ramos kicked off his clay campaign in Córdoba this year, where he stunned top seeded Diego Schwartzman and three other Argentines on their home turf before ultimately falling to young, history-making Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the final. A week later he reached the semis in Buenos Aires, losing this time to the elder Cernudolo, Francisco, in another three set nail-biter.

He got right back to work after the Golden Swing ended, going the distance in all three of his matches on his way to the Marbella semis and forcing Andrey Rublev, fresh off a monster win over Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo, to sweat it out in Barcelona. All that work gave him a season-leading eleven clay court wins going into this week's action, better than Rafa with seven and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who broke into a new level with his win at the Rolex Masters and then barely lost to Rafa in the Barcelona final -- he has nine.

Sure, Ramos's victories may have come at smaller events, but that doesn't negate their value. And he even widened the gap this week. Seeded seventh in Estoril, he finally had the benefit of some drama-free wins, dispatching his first four opponents, including former world #7 Fernando Verdasco and rising star Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, in straight sets.

In Sunday's final against Britain's Cameron Norrie, he was finally tested, dropping the first set and getting down another break before turning things around. The more experienced Ramos was able to break back in a marathon game early in the second set and after nearly three hours on court finally secured the win -- now his sixteenth clay court victory this year.

It was, I was surprised to learn, only Ramos's third career title -- given how long he's been on tour, it seemed like he should have been picking up a couple more over the years. But with by far more wins than anyone on clay this season, and a few weeks stil to go for this stretch, I imagine he'll get the opportunity to try for a few more.

Will that make him a factor when the stakes really get raised at Roland Garros? Well, it is the only Major where he's gotten past the third round -- he made the quarters there in 2016 with wins over Milos Raonic and a then-#25 Jack Sock. And he might be able to work his way up to a seed by the time the even kicks off at the end of the month, which could give him a bit of an edge.

Of course, so much can still happen between now and the French. But if nothing else, Ramos has certainly shown he's one to pay attention to, and that even the favorites may have to look out if he's in their way.