A Couple Major Calls

Well here we are at the start of another year, and already I'm about to break one of my resolutions.

Now I know I said I'd hold off before making any lofty predictions about how this year's Majors would turn out, but here I am all aglow in the potential of a new year and I just can't help myself. I'll try to keep it relatively brief though, as I'm still working off the morning's hangover.

So here you have it -- my completely unsubstantiated (so far) calls for the four men and women who will win the Grand Slams this year.

• Australian Open: The Women, The Men
• French Open: The Women, The Men
• Wimbledon: The Women, The Men
• U.S. Open: The Women, The Men

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Australian Open

The Women

This one could get interesting -- with two-time defending champion Serena Williams out of the mix, it'll be the first odd-numbered year in a decade where she won't claim the title. And yes, that will open the door for other players to pounce early -- Caroline Wozniacki as the year-end #1, Kim Clijsters as the Doha winner, Ana Ivanovic as a resurgent star.

But I'm giving this first Major to Victoria Azarenka, who had her previous two attempts in Melbourne heart-breakingly stopped at the hands of the eventual champion. Traditionally she's had her most success early in the year, and if she's able to retain the momentum she captured during her Asian tour, she'll already be a step ahead Down Under.

The Men

In situations like this -- hard courts, best-of-five matches, the experience of a champion -- you have to favor Roger Federer, and I do. Sure Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have both tasted victory on these grounds, and Andy Murray made a solid run to the finals here last year. But the record Roger piled up in the last three months of the season proves you can never count him out -- and with four trophies to his name already, no one knows better how to win in Melbourne.

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French Open

The Women

By the time spring rolls around, I think we're all hoping Serena will be back and battle-ready. But this has never been her best Slam, and with her last semifinal appearance coming in 2003, I would wait a bit before she makes her biggest impact on Tour. Defending champ Francesca Schiavone put up an amazing fight to claim her first Major title last year, but I'm not sure she's quite up to repeating this time around.

The woman she beat in the 2010 finals, though, might just be ready to go one better. Sam Stosur had a stellar clay court season this past spring, but more importantly, rebounded nicely post injury to make the semis at her first year-end championship. Some may say she has to work on her backhand, but the sheer power in her groundstrokes makes her just as formidable an opponent as either of the Williams sisters, and her first Major could be just around the corner.

The Men

All evidence points to another Nadal victory, and chances are that will be the case yet again. The five-time champ in Paris has only ever lost one match here, and his runs to the U.S. Open title and the finals in London prove that his game is not peaking, but actually getting better.

Still all streaks must come to an end some time, and on the tricky clay we know anything can happen. Players like Robin Soderling, David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco have all shown they can keep up with the big guns on the terre battue and might be able to pull off an upset. But as much as I'd love to call for one of these guys to make this their breakout tournament, my good sense tells me Rafa still has at least one more title left in him, and he'll chalk up Roland Garros #6 in June.

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Wimbledon

The Women

The Williams sisters have dominated the Championships for the better part of the decade -- at least one of the pair has appeared in the finals every year since 2000, and only twice did neither of them win it. And if you're thinking that both will be coming off injuries and neither will be ranked quite at the top of her game, let's not forget that Serena made the 2008 finals when ranked sixth and Venus won in '07 while only 31st in the world. We all know better than to count either of them out, but with her career ever-so-slightly closer to its end, I'll give the advantage to the elder sister this time.

The Men

Okay, here's where I make my sacrilegious bet. Of course Roger and Rafa are the favorites, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray have proven their mettle on the grass courts of the All England Club. But us Americans have been patiently waiting for the next big force to emerge in the men's game, and I think this might be the time for that to happen.

Andy Roddick has come so close so many times, but some less-than-inspiring performances to round out 2010 make me less sure about his prospects. Sam Querrey was once my favorite to take over the reins, but with only one win since the U.S. Open I'm a little more sanguine. So I'm pinning my hopes on the big guy -- six-foot-nine John Isner spent almost as much time on the lawn in his first round epic last year as Nadal did in his seven matches to the title. As long as he doesn't concentrate all his effort on one opponent this time, I think he could make a solid run in this Major.

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U.S. Open

The Women

Kim Clijsters has now won this title two years in a row, and the last three times she's played. I wouldn't be surprised to see her take it again, but she has been known to deliver some surprising matches in the past. Remember last year's Australian Open where she won only a single game against Nadia Petrova in the third round? Of course this is practically her home court, though, so she'll more than bring the fire, but that doesn't mean she won't be caught off guard.

In fact I think we'll see another first-time Major winner this year in New York. With all of my heart I hope it's Vera Zvonareva -- for all the effort she put in during 2010 I feel she needs a payoff immediately. Still plucky Caroline Wozniacki spent the entire fall proving she deserves the #1 ranking, and I think she'll be spending the next nine months doing the same. She may not be able to defend all of the titles she earned this past year -- some of those tournaments won't even exist in the new year -- but I think she's ripe for a Slam before year end.

The Men

It's likely the men too might give us some surprises in New York this year. Twice in a row we've seen the previous King of Queens dismissed -- albeit in grand style -- by Juan Martin Del Potro in 2009 and then by Novak Djokovic this past September. I wouldn't count Federer out, of course, but we have seen signs that he might be ready to pass the torch.

Nadal's title run last year was inspiring, but I'm not sure he has it in him to repeat so quickly on his worst surface. Andy Murray has made a few valiant attempts here, but unless we see his emotional game mature this year, I think it's still too early to call for the win. Instead, I'm giving this year's U.S. Open to two-time finalist Djokovic whose game just gets more mature over time. If he's going to make a real run to #1, this could be his opportunity to do it.

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Of course the lead up tournaments to each of the Majors will give us a better idea of who's most fit going into each of these events, so all these predictions could change on a dime. But with little certainty as to how things will turn out in the next twelve months, I've done my best with the existing evidence. Who knows, it could happen -- otherwise I may be forced to put away my crystal ball for good.

Anyway, here's hoping I do better with my other resolutions -- in fact, I'm heading to the gym right now.

Year in Review: The Men at the Majors

Well if you thought the women brought it at the Slams this year, you ain't seen nothing yet!

In an environment where the men are forced to go best-of-five, often not getting the relief of a tiebreak, you know only the strong can survive. But in 2010 some of the strongest performances came from a few unlikely players. In fact, only one in the top ten at the time made my final list, and some big stars and bigger matches were relegated to my Honorable Mentions.

So brace yourselves for some real power!

• Australian Open
• French Open
• Wimbledon
• U.S. Open

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Australian Open, Melbourne, Second Round
Juan Martin Del Potro d. James Blake: 6-4, 6-7(3), 5-7, 6-3, 10-8

My dear James Blake hadn't had the most successful couple of years and had been title-less since August 2008. He'd lost in the first round of two straight Majors the previous year and had fallen out of seeding range for the first time in years. When I saw he'd drawn the reigning U.S. Open champ in the second round of Melbourne, I knew he'd be in for another early exit.

The match was scheduled second in Hisense Arena on the first Wednesday, and given the time difference between Australia and New York, I was sure it would be long over by the time I woke up that morning. Imagine my surprise that, not only was the match still going strong, but that Blake had the lead! Lodged in the fourth set, the American was ahead 2-1, but was eventually forced to a decider after DelPo kept the break advantage and headed to the fifth -- and we all know his record in five setters is less than favorable.

Each man had chances in that last hour-plus of play, each winning on the other's serve a couple times. But Blake saved one break chance after another to keep himself in the match, firing off twenty-six winners in the set. He became more aggressive, too, making twenty-two net approaches and actually out-acing the six-foot-six Argentine. It wasn't enough, though, as the then-#4 player in the world proved his New York run was no fluke and powered through for the win.

Juan Martin eventually made it to the fourth round Down Under, but was sidelined for much of the year after wrist surgery. Shockingly, his inability to defend any points in the latter half of 2010 sent him plummeting to #257 in the world. Blake, who had far fewer points to defend, is actually ranked higher at #135, but with only a couple of lackluster quarterfinal showings peppered throughout the year we may start hearing more definitive news of his retirement soon.

Honorable mention: The quarterfinal between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Novak Djokovic was filled with drama both on- and off-court. Tsonga's victory was a great touchpoint in his year, but Nole's rebound after the loss is even more dramatic.

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French Open, Paris, Second Round
Fabio Fognini d. Gael Monfils: 2-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-4, 9-7

When I was in college, my friends and I would take breaks from all-night study sessions and play a couple sets of midnight tennis -- there was something both exciting and calming about chasing around balls you could barely see.

That was not the case at Roland Garros when the second round match between thirteenth-seeded Monfils and world #92 Fabio Fognini. After rain had delayed play on and off all day, the two didn't really get into it until just before seven at night. When they finally began it looked like the Frenchman would run away with the match -- after less than eighty minutes he was up two sets and followed through to gain the lead in third. But this year's French was full of comeback stories, and the Italian broke the favorite when he was serving for the match to take the third and won five straight games in the fourth to even the score at two apiece. Fognini raced off to a 3-0 lead in the decider before Monfils broke back and worked up to four-all.

That's when the fun began.

It was nearly 9:30p.m. in Paris, a few minutes before sunset. Play had been suspended on many outer courts, and a tournament official came out on Philippe Chartrier to make a decision, or so it seemed -- apparently he was actually asking the players if they wanted to keep playing. Monfils was hoping to ride his momentum and homefield advantage, Fognini was ready to quit. He spent six minutes arguing with the officials and was penalized a point as the sun continued to subside. Somehow, though, Fabio managed to hold. After three and a half hours of play, both men were looking tired, serving at seventy miles per hour and barely moving for points. The Italian got himself match points on Gael's serve, but was unable to convert. Ultimately, at about ten at night, tied at five all in the fifth, the chair ump called play and the men, understandably angry and frustrated, retired to the lockerrooms.



The next day, of course, was a fight for the break, with Fognini going first. He got down on his serve early but was able to hold on. It took six more games, but finally, when Monfils was serving, Fabio was able to get under his skin and converted on his fourth match point. The win granted Fabulous Fab his first ticket to a Major's third round. Unfortunately for the Italian, that was as far as he would go this time -- Fognini fell in straight sets the very next day to Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka. But the match was clearly an important mark in his career, and after Paris he vaulted up eleven ranking spots to #81 and ended the year near a career-high at #56 in the world.

Monfils, if you can believe it, had an even better end to the year. Though he battled injury for much of the summer and put on a weird and somewhat arrogant show in New York, he rebounded with a title in Montpellier and beat both Andy Murray and Roger Federer on the way to the Paris finals. Playing for France's first Davis Cup championship since 2001 earlier this month, he won his first rubber easily and though he lost to Novak Djokovic two days later, he certainly put up quite a fight for the Cup.

Honorable mentions: Eventual semifinalist Andy Murray was almost knocked out in the first round, down two sets to Richard Gasquet -- even if I’m not his biggest fan, I have to admit the rebound was spectacular. And Robin Soderling's defeat of defending champion Roger Federer in the quarters not only exacted revenge for his loss in the finals last year, but also ended the king's streak of twenty-three straight semis -- you can't ignore the importance of that.

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Wimbledon, London, First Round
John Isner d. Nicolas Mahut: 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(7), 7-6(3), 70-68

What can be said about this match that hasn't been already? And for that reason, I'm taking a different tack in this recap.

Of course the stamina and the mental toughness of these two men was just amazing those summer days. But in spite of how incredibly athletic and heart-pounding the ordeal was, one thing it did was argue in favor of a fifth set tiebreak. Yup, I wish we'd lopped the last digits off that final set score and ended it at 7-6.

Don't get me wrong -- I enjoyed it as much as everyone else, especially having been an Isner supporter well before most casual fans had heard of him. And I certainly appreciate what the two men did out there for eleven-plus hours over three days. But the toll it took on the players cannot be underestimated -- both were also entered in the doubles draw at Wimbledon, and Mahut actually began his match a few hours after losing in singles. John had a little more rest -- still less than twenty-four hours -- but lost his second round match in just over an hour and withdrew from doubles completely.

Add to that the fact that the actual quality of tennis was not that great. Yes, the stats were staggering -- 215 aces combined and clean error-to-winner ratios. But how much of that was due to sheer exhaustion versus really amazing play? There were only a handful of truly exciting points in those latter stages -- after seven hours on court Wednesday, can you really blame these guys for letting a ball or two sail past them? Few games in that fifth set got to deuce and many rallies were decided after just a couple strokes. Points won on aces went from twenty percent in the first four sets to 22.6% in the fifth, while receiving percentage dropped from over twenty-six to just about twenty.

Matt Cronin wrote a great piece after the conclusion which pointed out that fans won't really want to sit through this kind of match again, where points are decided so quickly and, frankly, sloppily, especially now that it's so unlikely such a match will set any other record. Yes, it was awe-inspiring while it happened, but what's next?

Honorable mention: Alejandro Falla had a two-set and a break lead on defending champion Federer in the first round and must’ve smelled the opportunity to do the unthinkable. Fed’s a champ for a reason, though, and he rallied for one of the best comebacks of his career.

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U.S. Open, New York, Second Round
Sergiy Stakhovsky d. Ryan Harrison: 6-3, 5-7, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6)

In a tournament which had so many surprising and inspirational matches, it may be a bit controversial to choose this one between two unseeded players -- one a mere qualifier. But there was still a lot to take from this game. Stakhovsky had just come off a title run in New Haven, while eighteen-year-old Harrison had battled through the preliminary rounds before upseting fifteenth seed Ivan Ljubicic in his opener. Given his inexperience and fatigue, it would have been easy to write off the American, even if he had homefield advantage.

But Harrison, playing in only the second Major of his young career, looked more at home than you might have expected. He built himself a two-to-one set lead and found a way to pull even when he found himself trailing in the fifth. Both players stayed agressive, forcing a total of forty break chances and approaching the net more than 170 times. Ryan made significantly more errors than his Ukrainian foe, but also hit more winners. In the eighty-minute third set, he rebounded from 1-3 in the breaker and held set points at 6-3 before Stakhovsky rallied for five straight points.



Not surprisingly, after playing five matches in seven days, Stakhovsky was spent and retired from his third round while trailing Feliciano Lopez by a set and two breaks. Harrison, ranked out of the top two hundred before the match, climbed to #170 in the world and pulled off some nice wins on the challenger tour. But he's a smart and thoughtful player, one I don't doubt will give the Americans hope for their future in the big tournaments.

Honorable mentions: Janko Tipsarevic had one of his bouts of greatness in his defeat of Andy Roddick in the second round and Fernando Verdasco and David Ferrer pulled off one of those classic late-night matches that make the U.S. Open so exciting. But the runner-up props for this tournament have to go Novak Djokovic who pulled off the big upset of Roger Federer in the semis.

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There you have it -- my picks for the best tennis had to offer in 2010.

It's nice to see it wasn't just the everyday stars who brought their A-games with them to the courts, but that a couple of newer talents began to emerge as well. And though I don't think either Rafa or Roger are willing to concede their positions at the top of the sport just yet, it certainly looks like a few players will be vying hard for their spots in the coming years.

It will be interesting to see if some of the guys and gals who made a big mark in 2010 will continue their momentum in the New Year -- no one wants the hangover year than Juan Martin Del Potro or Melanie Oudin had. But we're only a few weeks away from getting our first glimpse of their follow-through.

And it sure looks like things are going to get interesting!

Year in Review: The Ladies in the Big Leagues

I promised you all that my earlier lists were only half complete -- since something special happens when we hit the courts of the four Grand Slams, I couldn't possibly leave out the performances we saw there.

Though, unlike the men, ladies still face best-of-three set matches at the big events, the heightened excitement causes them to bring a little something extra to the Majors -- just ask Serena Williams. And though she continued to dominate the championships this year, it was some other earlier round matches that caught my eye most. And with others following her lead of raising their games when the stakes were highest, I was forced to include some Honorable Mentions for each of the Slams.

So let's get right to it!

• Australian Open
• French Open
• Wimbledon
• U.S. Open

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Australian Open, Melbourne, First Round
Maria Kirilenko d. Maria Sharapova: 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4

Before this match there was only one Maria the tennis world cared about, but when the diminutive Kirilenko left the court a victor after more than three hours of play, fans were abuzz about someone new.

The two had met twice before, with the more decorated Sharapova winning both times, but Kirilenko, ranked fifty-eighth at the time, was not intimidated. Twenty-two, blonde and Russian, just like her opponent, MaKiri pounced on Sharapova early, traded breaks a few times in the first set, but ultimately held on to get the lead. When the three-time Grand Slam winner leveled the match in the second, you might have assumed that momentum and experience would shift to favor her, but Kirilenko stayed strong, ran off to a 4-1 lead and never looked back.



Her win not only dismissed one of the favorites and the 2008 champion, but it also cemented Kirilenko as a real contender the rest of the year. In Melbourne she continued to the quarters, but more impressively followed up with a fourth round showing in Paris, a run to the finals in Moscow, and her best ever year end ranking. Wins over Shahar Peer, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Dinara Safina along the way further proved that her performance in Australia wasn't a fluke, and that we might just see her make a bigger splash in 2011.

Honorable Mention: The final. It sure was great to see Justine Henin make the championship match at her first Major back from retirement, but unlike her compatriot last year, she couldn't quite pull out the win.

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French Open, Paris, Second Round
Svetlana Kuznetsova d. Andrea Petkovic: 4-6, 7-5, 6-4

Defending champion Kuznetsova wasn't playing her best tennis in the months heading into Roland Garros. After winning a title and making a final in the lead-up season the prior year, she hadn't made it past the second round for three straight tournaments in 2010. I didn't give her much chance to repeat her title run in Paris.

And when she met a feisty Andrea Petkovic, ranked fortieth at the time, it looked like that prediction would hold. The German took less than forty minutes to secure the first set and got a break lead in the second. She held three match points on her serve at 5-4 and was threatening to hand Sveta her earliest Slam exit since 2005 when she lost her opening match at the U.S. Open. But nerves might have gotten to the youngster, and the veteran -- actually only two years older -- fought back to deuce. Petkovic had another match point, but was unable to close out, instead allowing the Russian to get on serve. Svetlana won the next two games too and, after another fifty minutes of play, had forced the third set.

At that point I was sure Andrea would fold and that Kuznetsova would roll through a bagel set. In fact, it started out looking that way as the Russian got up 3-1 in the third -- suddenly she found herself up match point while Petkovic served at 2-5. But not only did the underdog manage to hold serve, she broke the two-time Major champion again to get back even. Eventually, though, Petkovic was forced to wake up from her dream and, while serving at 4-5, Petkovic conceded on the fourth match point against her.

It was a heart-breaking loss for the German, I'm sure, but a solid win for Kuznetsova. Though she did lose the next round, she displayed a similar resolve several months later in San Diego where she survived a tough draw that pitted her against three seeded players. And Petkovic, ending the year at her highest career ranking and having endeared herself to fans across the world, will certainly be back to fight another day. I'd look for her to make a big imprint on 2011.

Honorable Mentions: The final, of course, and the semi quarter between Sam Stosur and Serena Williams. It's not often you see players -- especially women -- hit so hard and so smart.

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Wimbledon, London, Quarterfinal
Tsvetana Pironkova d. Venus Williams: 6-3, 6-2

Five-time champion Williams was clearly the odds-on favorite to, if not win the whole thing, at least make the Wimbledon finals for the ninth time in her career. And if experience and talent weren't enough, commentators suggested she'd have added motivation to beat the twenty-two year old Bulgarian, who'd four years earlier dealt her an opening round loss at the Australian Open.

But eighty-second ranked Pironkova, who had never won more than one match at a Major, had other plans. She'd made the quarters in Warsaw a few weeks earlier and had already beaten 2007 runner-up Marion Bartoli in the fourth round here. And she did not allow herself to be intimidated -- she only dropped two points on her first serve in the opening set and won four games in a row to get the early lead. She capitalized on a slew of errors from her opponent and stayed strong after Venus broke early in the second, eventually holding on for a straight-set, eighty-five minute win.

The win took Pironkova to #35 in the world, and though she peaked a few points higher in September, she hasn't quite made the same statement at other tournaments this year. I worry she may suffer a precipitous drop next year if she's unable to defend the points she racked up at the All England Club, but if she can soldier herself up, we might see her make a dent in the sport.

Honorable Mention: The quarterfinal between Vera Zvonareva and Kim Clijsters presaged how great a year the Russian would have -- at that point I don't think anyone pegged her as an eventual finalist. Too bad for her she couldn't beat Kim when it counted a few months later.

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U.S. Open, New York, Fourth Round
Dominika Cibulkova d. Svetlana Kuznetsova: 7-5, 7-6(4)

The spunky, tiny Cibulkova had been having an up-and-down year until she arrived in New York. Since reaching a career-high ranking of #12 in the world after her semifinal run in Paris last year, she'd made the semis in Monterrey and Ponte Vedra Beach, but lost in three straight first rounds over the summer hardcourt season, even needing to qualify for New Haven. But during the year she had notched wins over rising stars Aravane Rezai and Lucie Safarova while giving Serena Williams a bit of a scare at Wimbledon. She came to the U.S. Open ranked forty-fifth in the world, but certainly knew she was capable of better. Though she was spared the worst of the draws, she survived a three-plus hour second round against Kateryna Bondarenko, saving more than a few match points, and by the time she made the second week, I admittedly didn't think she had any fight left in her.

Kuznetsova, on the other hand, was just beginning to regain her stride. Since winning the French Open last year, she struggled to repeat the performances that raised her to #3 in the world until the hardcourt season. She avoided two potential meltdowns on the way to a title in San Diego and survived a tough draw to make the semis in Montreal. Dealt some big opponents in New York, she showed that champion spirit in defeats of veteran Kimiko Date Krumm and her own two-time vanquisher Maria Kirilenko. It started to look like she was setting herself up to again be a contender for the crown she won back in 2004.

But in abnormally windy conditions, Cibulkova pulled off one of the biggest wins of her career. Having made the fourth round of a Major for only the third time, she didn't want to take the opportunity for granted. Down break points in both sets, the Slovak saved eight other break chances in the first and finally got herself even before eventually winning the set. She battled injuries and fatigue through the second, took advantage of twenty-one unforced errors by her opponent, and forced a tiebreak in which she never ceded the lead.

Dominika lost in the next round to Wozniacki and only won a handful of matches the rest of the year, but she ends 2010 at #31 in the world, in seeding territory for at least the Australian Open. And she's still young -- just twenty-one -- so has plenty of opportunity to really develop her game next year. She's spunky enough to put together a couple wins at the Majors and may just make a run for a big trophy in the coming months.

Honorable Mentions: Elena's fourth round loss to Sam Stosur in the wee hours of a Monday morning might actually rank higher on my list, but I just couldn't include another one of her heartbreaking defeats. And Clijsters' win over Venus in the semis proved she can make it through draws which include the toughest opponents.

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Well it sure has been an exciting year for the ladies.

And though Serena's wins in Melbourne and Wimbledon were enough to keep her firmly ranked at the top of the sport, her withdrawal at least from Australia next year sure does open the door for other ladies who've begun to get their footing at the Slams -- if this year's performances are any indication, it looks like we might start seeing some new faces on the winner's stand.

Be sure to check back later this week when I'll bring you my picks for the best men's matches at the Majors -- trust me, we've only just begun!