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May 24, 2020

Roland Garros Rewind (2016 - 2019)

So here we are on what should have been the first day of the 2020 French Open, and instead of watching magic on clay, we're on the verge of what will be the third straight month without professional tour tennis.

There are signs of hope out there, though -- this weekend, a couple ladies are taking the court in the second UTR Pro Series in Florida, and Novak Djokovic recently announced the Adria Tour, which will feature top stars in exhibition matches around the Balkans in late June and early July.

Still, with the WTA and ATP officially on hold until at least mid July, whether Roland Garros will actually kick off on the twice-rescheduled September 20th as now planned remains to be seen. I clearly can't continue with my original plan of predicting the final four for this event, at least not yet, but I can take this opportunity to look back at the action I missed in Paris the few years since I last wrote about it.

As with my lookback on Indian Wells and Miami, there were a couple things that took me by surprise, some standout performances that slipped my memory -- certainly on the women's side, but even a few on the men's, which has obviously been so dominated by one name over the past decade and a half. There were players that really made a name for themselves at the French, some of whom have lived up to that glory, others who've faded away a bit. But all of them, I'm sure, hold these courts in a special place in their hearts and are eager for the day they can get back to work on them.

The Men


Not surprisingly, the French Open remains Rafael Nadal's to lose. The twelve-time champion has a stunning 93-2 record on these courts and could be one appearance away from hitting the 100-win mark. There have been some bumps in recent years -- we all got a little nervous in 2015, when the Spaniard's game seemed to be flagging a bit, and he lost to Novak Djokovic in the quarters. A year later, a wrist injury not only forced him to pull out of the third round in Paris, but also allowed Nole to complete the task he fell just short of the season before, when he lost to Stan Wawrinka in the final -- winning the title and the career Grand Slam. But Rafa got back to top form in short order and in the last three years, has only lost three sets on his way to the titles.

That said, we know Nadal's reign will eventually come to an end, and we're getting some glimpses of who might be ready and willing to take over. Dominic Thiem has reached the finals at Roland Garros the last two years and has quickly become the second best clay court player on tour right now. He's won ten of his 16 titles on the surface and last year beat Rafa in Barcelona and Djokovic at the French. His performance in Melbourne this year further showed he's capable of capturing the biggest titles, and I expect that sometime in the not so distant future, we'll see him lifting this trophy too.

But there were some other players that lasted late into recent draws at Roland Garros that flew well below my radar. Unseeded Albert Ramos-Viñolas made a solid run to the quarters in 2016 with wins over Milos Raonic and Jack Sock. It was by far his best performance at a Major and followed four straight first round exits in Paris. And Pablo Carreno Busta got as far a year later, but ultimately pulled out in the second set against Nadal with an abdomen injury that also forced him to skip the grass court season. But he rebounded to make the semis in New York and even spent a stint in the top ten.

The real shocker at the French Open over the last few years, though, was a little-known Italian named Marco Cecchinato. Though he picked up his first career title in Budapest as a qualifier in April 2018, he was still ranked just 72nd in the world when he hit the court in Paris. But he took out in turn Carreno Busta, David Goffin, and against all odds, Novak Djokovic, who at the time was ranked all the way down at #22 after elbow surgery the year before kept him off court for six months. Cecchinato became the lowest ranked player to make the Roland Garros semis since 1999, and he eventually jumped into the top twenty, picking up trophies in Umag and Buenos Aires to boot. But last season didn't go quite so well -- he lost in 21 first rounds, putting together a string of nine straight losses over the summer, and with a 1-7 record to start 2020, he's now down at #113. Of course, he could come out of this lockdown swinging, but something tells me this Cinderella story may have come and gone.

The Women

Things have been a little less straightforward on the women's side of things, where we've seen a different champion in each of the last six years. I was closely watching in 2014 and 2015 when Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams respectively repeated their crowns, but I hadn't realized we were in for a whole new world in the women's game by the time 2016 rolled around.

It started when Garbiñe Muguruza, who'd only won two titles at that point and was ranked fourth in the world, stunned the defending Williams. who'd drubbed her in the previous Wimbledon final, for her first Grand Slam crown. Her career has been up and down since then, winning at the All England Club the next year, then struggling for most of the last before definitively reasserting herself as a force at this year's Australian Open.

Then there was Simona Halep, long held up as the star of the next generation of tennis, she came close but fell short of the biggest titles a couple times before finally breaking the seal -- she very well could have won that title against Sharapova in 2014, lost at the same spot three years later, and came in second again in Australia in 2018, this time to Caroline Wozniacki who won her first and only Major that year in Melbourne. But fourth time was a charm for Halep -- ten years after winning the Juniors title in Paris, the pint-sized Romanian -- meh, she's two inches taller than me -- finally came home a winner, beating Sloane Stephens for the 2018 title. She added a Wimbledon trophy to her collection last year and at #2 in the world seems well in place to add a couple more before all is said and done.


But maybe more significant are the slew of upstarts who've really had their break on the courts of Roland Garros. First there's defending champ Ashleigh Barty, who currently holds the #1 ranking in the world and put together a solid 11-3 record this year before play was called. Still, it remains to be seen whether she'll be more than a one-hit wonder -- the ladies' draw last year was, after all, rife with upsets, and the four semifinalists had an average rank that would barely earn a seed at a Slam. Barty's had big wins since, of coure, claiming the year-end championship for example, but she's also more than fallible and she'll need to fight to reclaim that title. As for the other three who made the semis -- finalist Marketa Vondrousova, Amanda Anisimova, and Johanna Konta -- I've put a lot of faith in their career-making runs, and I'm still waiting for a couple of them to make good on them.

The biggest outlier among the women's titleists, though, is 2017 winner Jelena Ostapenko, who started the event a teenager ranked 47th in the world and ended it a 20-year-old Grand Slam champion. She'd never won a title before that run, but beat six higher ranked players during it, including former French finalist Sam Stosur, Wozniacki, and Halep in the final. But it's been a rough road since -- the Latvian lost in the first round at the French the last two years, and while she did crack the top ten and reached the Wimbledon semis in 2018, she's had trouble making a big splash. Still, she's young -- 23 next month -- and has a lot of time to perfect her game. I'm not ready to write her off, but sure would love to see her come out of the lockdown with a little more fire in her belly.

Because, of course, we will come out of this, and there's a long list of players who not only want to add themselves to the champions' roll but will be able to do it. And like everyone of you reading this, I can't wait to get started.

May 20, 2020

The Grand (Re)Opening: Take Two

This week we were supposed to be in the final stretches of the 2020 clay court season, getting ready for the French Open, which was originally scheduled to kick off this coming Sunday. 

Things are different now, of course, with tour-level tennis now on hold until the end of July at least, even as some countries and states begin what will undoubtedly be the long and arduous process of reopening not only their courts but their entire economies.

Still there is some reprieve for those aching for some live professional sports -- South Korean baseball has resumed with fake fans filling the stadiums, Nascar held its first race over the weekend in South Carolina, and Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson won a charity Skins game benefitting COVID-19 first responders. 

And on the tennis front, this weekend we'll get the second edition of the UTR Pro Series event, with four ladies this time competing for the first title since February and a little bit of that much-needed prize money.
Danielle Collins and Amanda Anisimova, semifinalists at the Australian Open and Roland Garros respectively last year, Alison Riske, who was just off a career-high ranking at #19 in the world when play was stopped, and Ajla Tomljanovic, will compete in round robin style down in West Palm Beach, Florida, hoping to duplicate the success seen by Reilly Opelka a few weeks ago.

And while each of these players may be a little rusty after two months without true match play, some of their results pre-lockdown could give us a glimpse of what to expect now. So why not take a stab at telescoping what we might see when play gets underway.

Alison Riske is the on-paper favorite, with the highest ranking of the group and the most career titles -- two. But despite the low hardware count, she's had some solid wins over the past year, taking out Petra Kvitova and Elina Svitolina in Wuhan, and taking Serena to three in the Wimbledon quarters, after ousting world #1 Ashleigh Barty a round earlier. She's been a little quieter this year, losing the two matches she's played since the Australian Open and beating no one in the top twenty to date. Of course, she's got a lot of talent, but there's plenty of opportunity for someone to notch an upset here.

Anisimova too comes to this event a little vulnerable. While she remains in the top thirty, the eighteen-year-old American is still riding high on the points she earned at last year's French, where she stunned Simona Halep and took Barty the distance in the semis. But a back injury kept her off court for most of the back half of 2019 and she'd been a little slow at the start of this season too, getting demolished by Serena in Auckland and pulling out of Doha after an admittedly impressive win over Svitolina. And while she did win the U.S. Open Juniors title back in 2017 -- beating Coco Gauff, by the way -- it still feels like she might've done better had the clay season gone as scheduled. 

So it may just be that the biggest surprises come from the lower-ranked entrants. Danielle Collins came out swinging this year -- while she fell well short of defending points from her 2019 Melbourne run, she did score wins over Svitolina in Brisbane and both Sofia Kenin and Belinda Bencic in Adelaide. And Tomljanovic, the only one of these four not from the States, actually has the most match play this year -- albeit with the only losing record at 5-6. Still, with two career wins over Riske and another over Anisimova, she's had the most experience against this group, and knows how to win.

Of course, all that said, we'll certainly see a few surprises this weekend. Overall, these ladies don't have a lot of experience playing each other, and, as above, it could take some time for them to shake off the cobwebs that have collected over the last few weeks.

But if this UTR Pro event is a success, it could really help set the stage for more play this season. And after all, no matter how different it feels and looks, isn't that what we all want the most?





May 12, 2020

Trouble With the Serve

Over the weekend, Reilly Opelka won the first pro tennis event since lockdown began over two months ago, defeating Russia's Miomir Kecmanovic in three sets to claim the UTR Pro Match Series championship.



The victory didn't earn him any ranking points, but he did score some hard-to-come-by-these-days prize money -- he was quick to point out that ATP Officials have been paid their full salary since March, even as tour play has been suspended, while players themselves have had no means of truly earning their keep -- and that all-important match play during this unprecedented time.

And in watching Opelka on court, you can't help but be reminded of another American player with very similar attributes. 

At 6'11" (!!!) the 22-year-old is actually an inch taller than John Isner, and he understandably shares his compatriot's big weapon -- down 15-30 to Kecmanovic in the third set Saturday, he fired off three aces to win the game. In his two months of regular play this year, he's already hit 214 service winners, and over the past 52 weeks he trails only Isner in average aces per match.

But as we've also come to know, a serve in this sport is not everything. I've long lamented how many times Isner is forced into a tiebreak -- nearly half his sets this year have been decided in, well, deciders -- and if you can't break your opponent's serve then what good, really, is dominating yours?

Opelka is not entirely innocent of posting similar stats. He's only won 12% of his return games this year; Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, wins more than one of every three. And he's racking up as much time in tiebreak land as Isner -- every one of their ten sets against each other last year went 7-6 or 6-7.

But he is working to improve. That 12% record compares to the 10% he won on the receiving end last year, and is several times better than the 7% he notched in 2016. And he's consciously focused on fixing his weakness.

“I've spent a lot of time on my return,” he told the Tennis Channel after his win this weekend. “I returned well in Delray, and I returned well in Davis Cup. I’m much more confident in my return game. It’s so much more fun for me as a player to believe I can break serve. I’m not just focused on holding serve. It adds a whole other element to my game.”

Will that translate into more success when regular play resumes? Hopefully -- the world #39 has already had some decent results this season, taking Fabio Fognini to five sets in his Australian opener and winning that title in Delray, the second of his career, beating Milos Raonic along the way. Last year he beat Stan Wawrinka at Wimbledon. 

And, since the comparison with Isner is inevitable, Opelka won all three of their matches in 2019, so at the very least he seems to be winning the battle of the big servers for now. 

Of course, I don't mean to say that Isner's career isn't something to aspire to -- we could all do a lot worse than being ranked in the top twenty for the balance of a decade -- but I would like to see Reilly do even better. We could talk for hours about how long it's been since an American played a Grand Slam final, never mind won one. Opelka may or may not be our best chance at that, but he's certainly an option.

But even beyond the hardware he could earn, for him to really thrive on tour, we need to see a more well-rounded game. I have confidence he's getting there, and can't wait to see what he does when he's truly at the top of his game.

May 1, 2020

The Grand (Re)Opening

Tennis is getting back in action -- like real, live, professional tennis.

The Tennis Channel and MyUTR today announced the launch of the UTR Pro Match Series, whose first event will take place next weekend. ATP pros Matteo Berrettini, a semifinalist at the U.S. Open last year, Reilly Opelka, Tennys Sandgren and Tommy Paul will vie on an actual court for actual prize money starting May 8 -- the women, Amanda Anisimova, who made the final four at Roland Garros in 2019, Alison Riske, Danielle Collins ('19 Melbourne SF), and Ajla Tomljanovic, hold their own event starting May 22.

The matches, to be held in Florida, come as countries around the world and about half of U.S. states begin to lift some stay-at-home restrictions, even as the threat of the coronavirus remains front and center. It won't be exactly like the tournaments we're used to -- there won't be spectators or ball kids, and players will have their own set of marked balls to serve with, so there will hopefully be minimal risk of cross-contamination, and they'll have to provide their own drinks and towels.

The format could give us a glimpse of what Tour events might look like for the next several months. As I've said before, unlike other pro sports with obvious physical contact, tennis itself is presumably more adaptable to social distancing guidelines, and with proper steps can probably be kept relatively safe. That's the good news.

Another positive -- this gives an opportunity for players to earn what could be some much-needed income. Players and pundits have been quick to point out how big an economic toll the lockdown orders are having on lower-ranked players, Opelka even calling for tour officials to take a pay cut, as we've seen happen in other professional sports leagues.


This week's virtual Mutua Madrid Open was a nice first step in providing support -- Andy Murray and Kiki Bertens donating their winnings to the players' relief fund and the UK's National Health Service -- but it certainly doesn't solve the problem entirely. And, of course, neither does hosting an event with all the entrants in the top hundred, albeit far from the big endorsement players who will no doubt be fine during the shutdown.

But hopefully this event can give us a framework that'll eventually get more athletes back in the game. The exhibition matches being played between even lower-ranked players this weekend will help as well.

Still, is now the right time to get started? I don't know. I will say I'm not surprised host state Florida is one of the first in the U.S. to loosen restrictions, and I'm not sure people, Florida or elsewhere, have enough self-control not to rush the malls, beaches, and restaurants once that happens -- Central Park whenever it goes over 60° in New York is insane. But hopefully these events will be held to a higher standard, and players, officials and anyone else involved will take the necessary precautions.

After all, I'm surprisingly heartened by the tennis community's response to the pandemic, both in donating to health programs and front-line workers, and in taking #SocialDistancing guidelines not only seriously, but to new levels -- questionable vaccine beliefs notwithstanding.

So here's hoping our first event back is not only successful, but safe. I mean, we can all kind of agree with Sandgren here.

April 26, 2020

An Experiment Worth Watching

Tomorrow the Mutua Madrid Open kicks off its innovative Virtual Pro tournament -- a stab at not only giving tennis players and fans something to watch during the global shutdown, but also helping support those who may be under more pressure these days than the biggest stars. It's a truly noble effort, one I hope other events will be able to replicate as this pandemic drags on.

But I've already talked at length on the competition's virtues. So instead, today I'm going back to the good old days when we could actually size up the field.


To be fair, "sizing up the field" in an event like this requires some bold assumptions that may not have any basis in reality. Like with the year-end championships, the Virtual Pro is structured in groups of round robins, where the top two finishers will make the quarterfinals and then will play a traditional bracket-style elimination after that. But with the players battling on screen rather than on court, any advantage that comes with seedings and brute strength is all but eliminated when they pick up a game controller.

Still that allows for a motley group to participate. Caroline Wozniacki and David Ferrer are both retired, Bianca Andreescu was still recovering from a knee injury that's kept her out of play since October, and I'd never even heard of Fiona Ferro before this event. There's no reason these guys couldn't "upset" Rafael Nadal or Karolina Pliskova. And maybe I'm just stereotyping the generation, but I imagine that Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are probably pretty good at video games.

So having said all that, and without consequence, I'll go ahead and pick who I think will make the quarters in each group.

The men: Denis Shapovalov, Gael Monfils, Dominic Thiem, David Ferrer, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Kei Nishikori, Alexander Zverev, and Karen Khachanov.

The women: Fiona Ferro, Carla Suarez Navarro, Elina Svitolina, Victoria Azarenka, Bianca Andreescu, Caroline Wozniacki, Donna Vekick, and Genie Bouchard.

But of course, in the end, it doesn't really matter who comes out on top. It's just good to know that all these guys are playing for a good cause, and hopefully we'll all come out better off on the other side of this.

And if you want to watch all the action, you can do so on Facebook in English or Spanish starting tomorrow morning.

April 21, 2020

Oh, Novak

I'm sure I'm not the only person who was surprised to learn this week that Novak Djokovic is an anti-vaxxer.

Regarding the possibility that players would be required to inoculate themselves against the coronavirus when play resumes, the current world #1 and hugely influential superstar, raised some eyebrows when he said Sunday in a live Facebook chat, "Personally I am opposed to vaccination, and I wouldn’t want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel."

He did suggest that his personal beliefs might have to change if such rules are implemented and he wasn't able to play, but the general message certainly hit a lot of people hard. One prominent epidemiologist in Nole's homeland cautioned him against making such statements, given how much of a following he has.

Of course, some of this discussion is moot since there isn't currently a vaccine for COVID-19, and one might not become available until next year. If officials decide to make vaccination mandatory -- something that isn't yet in the books, but was vocally supported by two-time Major winner Amelie Mauresmo last month -- it could be a looooong time before we get back on court, way beyond the current mid-July return that's currently on the books.

Yes, that would suck, but the alternative is probably worse.

Tennis is obviously an international sport, with players, fans, and everyone involved in the community traveling not just from state to state, but across the world, week after week. That not only exposes them to the virus, but could bring whatever potential latent germs and bacteria they're carrying to areas that either might not have been hit hard yet or which had been starting to get on the right side of the curve.

Those concerns, like everything these days, extend far beyond tennis. I often find myself wondering how long after stay-at-home restrictions are lifted I'll feel comfortable going back to the gym, the movies, on vacation. And for players who, while free from continuous physical contact with their opponents like in other sports, nevertheless are still surrounded by tons of people in far more remote locations, it makes sense to guard against any possible risk.

What makes Djokovic's comments even more shocking is the fact that he's been so on top of the response to COVID-19, from donating a million euros to help hospitals get the ventilators and other protective equipment they need, to posting one #TennisAtHome video after another. Clearly he takes this seriously, so why not be equally serious about developing and receiving a much-needed vaccine?

To be fair, Nole has long been a proponent of natural heeling, even delaying surgery a few years back before ultimately relenting. He told the New York Times his focus is on how to build immunity to the disease. He didn't make clear whether he opposed all vaccinations, and he didn't totally preclude taking one for the coronavirus if it were available.

Still, the anti-vax thing is baffling to me, especially in this case. If there were ever a time when you'd think everyone would be clamoring for a vaccine, it would be this one. And hopefully one comes along soon that allows us all to focus again, not on this outbreak, but on the things we love and want so badly to get back to normal.

April 16, 2020

Keeping Tennis Alive...#TogetherApart

Well here we are in mid-April and no closer to the end of seeing the coronavirus's impact on daily life around the world. And as we've discussed plenty over the last few weeks, tennis is far from immune from the effects -- and those extend far beyond the obvious cancellations of some of the biggest events in sports for at least three more months, likely much longer.

But the tennis community is doing its part to help its members during these very uncertain times. After all, the sport is not just about the professionals lucky enough to sit atop the ATP and WTA or those winning those events. There are hundreds of thousands of athletes -- from those who plod away on tour with double and triple digit rankings, who foot their own bills to fly to and enter tournaments with only a chance at earning a couple thousand dollars a week, to those who run local clubs and coach casual players, to those who hope one day to be the Next Big Thing -- who are, like so many others, indefinitely out of work.

Today the USTA, the body which runs the U.S. Open, said it would commit over $50 million to help support the industry, offering grants to facilities, instructors and other organizations so they can get back up and running when restrictions are finally lifted.

"The foundation of our sport begins with these stakeholders, and we need to ensure they can weather the storm and remain viable as the storm recedes. This is all about relief, recovery and rebuild for our industry." - USTA CEO Mike Dowse.


On the relief side, the Mutua Madrid Open last week announced a pretty ingenious way to help those pros who are struggling without any opportunity to earn prize money. As we've noted before, just because tennis is your full-time job, doesn't mean you're living the high life.

So the Tier 1 clay court event, run by the wonderful Feliciano Lopez, which was supposed to be contested the first week of May, is now holding a virtual (yes -- that means video games!) tournament at the end of April, where winners will vie for a €350,000 (about $380,000) purse that can be donated to players in need. Among the top-notch stars putting down their tennis rackets in exchange for game controllers are Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Victoria Azarenka, and defending Madrid champ Kiki Bertens. And they're already training up!


As for the return of actual play -- well we're all still waiting on that. In its announcement today, the USTA said it currently still plans to hold the U.S. Open at the end of summer, but a final decision won't likely come for a few months. There's some talk of staging the event without fans, an idea being floated by some other sports organizations. And to some extent, without real person-to-person contact, tennis, like golf, is probably better suited to that option than, say, football or the NBA, but officials say there's still a risk on court and organizers didn't yet seem ready to pull the trigger on green-lighting empty stadiums.

Whatever they decide though, it's imperative that we have a sport to come back to at some point over the next few months. Initiatives like the USTA grants and Madrid's virtual tournament are just a start in providing the support that's needed, and hopefully we'll see more programs over the next few months. And when we get through all of this, here's hoping the sport comes out better for it.