All Bets Are Off

Monte Carlo, obviously, is a gambling town, and like all gambling towns, there are a couple things we should know: 1) there are no sure bets, and 2) the house always wins. So we shouldn't be surprised by what we've seen so far at the first clay court Masters event of the season, but that doesn't make the results any less noteworthy.

Who saw that coming? 👀

Dan Evans beats the World No. 1 to make the last eight in Monte-Carlo!pic.twitter.com/rAbx4gvTVR

— ATP Tour (@atptour) April 15, 2021

I'll start with the big upset of the day, where Novak Djokovic, undefeated so far this year, took the court against the talented but unseeded workhorse Daniel Evans. While Nole's win streak was smaller than it's been at this point in previous seasons -- he skipped out on Miami because of COVID restrictions and we haven't seen him since he won that ninth Australian Open title -- he was still clearly the favorite here. He's, after all, got more weeks than anyone else atop the rankings, and with just one loss to a sub-thirty player over the last two years, few opponents have a shot at making any headway. His one-sided win over phenom Jannik Sinner in his opener further proved his dominance.

The odds didn't seem to bother Evans, though -- and they were tough odds. The thirty-year-old, who picked up the first title of his career at the Murray River Open to start the season, has been a little quiet lately -- he lost five of his six matches since then, including his opener at the Australian Open, and came to the Rolex Masters a shade off his career high ranking at #33 in the world. But he pulled of a nice win over Miami champ Hubert Hurkacz in the second round to set up a showdown with the top seed, and he was unintimidated by his opponent. He broke Nole's usually strong serve five times and kept him to under sixty percent on his first attempts. It was a long two-setter, no doubt -- over two hours at the end -- but one where the underdog didn't flinch and came away with the fourth top ten win of his career, his first ever over a world #1.

The surprises, though, didn't only come as upsets. David Goffin, who frankly stunned me with a title in Montpellier in February, went back to form right after that, winning just two matches at four events, most recently losing to world #104 James Duckworth in his Miami opener. And while his own ranking has been somewhat shielded by COVID-related rules, he hadn't beaten a top ten player in over a year. But he seems to have found his footing again this week -- after a tighted first round against former U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic, he took out former French Open semifinalist and earlier today scored an important win over fifth seed Alexander Zverev in straights sets. With a quarterfinal match now against Evans instead of Djokovic, we'll get to see if he can put his higher on-paper ranking to work.

And Goffin's not the only recently-struggling star to right his course in Monte Carlo. Fabio Fognini, who I was stunned to learn is technically the defending champion here, having beaten Zverev and Rafael Nadal on his way to the 2019 title, the last time the event was played, has been similarly spotty over the last twelve months, winning just one match in 2020 after the Australian Open, pulling off a couple nice wins at this year's ATP Cup, and then losing his last three matches to players ranked outside the top sixty. But he's turning things around this week -- he may not have played another seed yet, but he's gotten three straight-set wins so far, today over a tough Filip Krajinovic in under ninety minutes. He'll face a bigger test next against Casper Ruud, who's already beaten Diego Schwartzman and Marbella champ Pablo Carreño Busta, but perhaps there's something about this dirt that can really help Fognini shine.

Of course, as I mentioned, there are two rules of every gambling mecca, and if anyone can call the Monte Carlo Masters home, it's Rafael Nadal. He has, after all, won a record eleven titles here, eight of them in a row, and he's only been more prolific at one other event. Like with Djokovic, we haven't seen much of Rafa this year -- he hadn't played since losing in the Aussie quarters due to a back injury and his sparse schedule has forced him to cede his spot at #2 in the rankings.

He could get it back, though, if he makes the final this weekend, and so far, he's looking on point to do just that. He's lost just five games in his last two matches, needing less than an hour to dispatch one-time world #3 Grigor Dimitrov earlier today. To make the semis, he'll have to get past red-hot Andrey Rublev, and while I'm a little nervous about that, Nadal has won both of their previous meetings and Rublev has proven himself not-so-indestructable of late. Still, it could be a close one, and no matter how stacked the odds are, there's always the chance the game gets turned on its head.

But maybe, just maybe, we're in for a real big jackpot.

The Return of Roger

That winning feeling never gets old 🙌@rogerfederer | @QatarTennis pic.twitter.com/r7vK9pajXo

— ATP Tour (@atptour) March 10, 2021

405 days.

That's how long it'd been since we last saw the great Roger Federer in a professional tennis match.

It'd been even longer since he'd won one. (😢)

After a semifinal loss at last year's Australian Open, where he'd survived not one, but two five-set matches, he underwent not one, but two knee surgeries and had to miss the rest of what would end up being a severely abbreviated season. We got glimpses of him here and there, of course, but his absence on court was certainly felt -- and, in someways, it opened the door for some big moves.

Not only did Rafael Nadal tie Roger's record of 20 Grand Slam titles and Novak Djokovic surpass his reign of 310 weeks ranked #1, but a slew of others moved in on what has long been his turf -- Dominic Thiem won his first Major, Daniil Medvedev climbed past him in the rankings and within a whisper of ending the stranglehold the Big Three have on the top two. And players like Sebastian Korda and Aslan Karatsev, well off the radar a year ago, have since emerged as real forces in the sport -- ones that could challenge the status quo.

That's not to say these things wouldn't have happened had Federer played a normal schedule over the past fifteen months, but they certainly came with fewer roadblocks.

So that begs the question of what happens now that Roger is back. The 39-year-old (🤯) made a winning return today in Doha, a tournament he's won three times before, saving set point against Dan Evans in the first and breaking late in the decider to secure the win. He'll next face Nikoloz Basilashvili, who had a much easier time with his second round, and can't be assumed of victory, despite his second seeding and his previous drubbing of the Georgian in Melbourne in 2016.

Of course Fed's bigger tests will come against the better players -- Thiem looms as the top seed in Doha -- and on the bigger stages. While he announced earlier this month he won't be playing in Miami as he continues to rehab, there's still hope we haven't seen the last of him at the Majors. Will he still have what it takes to compete against the Rafas and Noles of the world in best-of-five matches? Well, if anyone can do it, it's probably him.

But until we get there, let's just revel for a moment in what Roger was able to do today. He's now won 1,243 matches over 24 seasons (🤯🤯), putting him one strong season away from passing Jimmy Connor and further distancing him from his contemporaries. And as we're bound to have the 🐐 conversation a lot more over the next few months and years, that stat might go a long way toward making a case for Roger.

Wherever we land though, you can bet we've still got a lot more fight left to see from this guy, and it sure will be fun to watch.