Back on Top

It's been a long few months for all of us, and a long several years for many, and it's been a while since we've all felt on top of our games. But this weekend's results on clay helped a couple stars get their footing back under them -- and in a few cases, it was a long time coming.

The moment @RafaelNadal won his 12th Barcelona title! 🏆

The Spaniard ends Tsitsipas' winning streak 6-4 6-7(6) 7-5.#BCNOpenBS pic.twitter.com/DKUyI1h7le

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 25, 2021

Porsche Tennis Grand Prix, Stuttgart, Germany

I'll start in Germany, where a slew of top-tier talent took the courts for the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. The draw was so stacked, in fact, that even players like Maria Sakkari, who ended Naomi Osaka's year-plus win streak in Miami, and Australian Open finalist Jen Brady weren't seeded. And the favorites, for the most part, really lived up to the challenge -- while Sofia Kenin dropped her opening match to Anett Kontaveit, even those upsets came at the hands of highly-ranked opponents.

Ultimately, though, it was 2019 French Open champ Ashleigh Barty and recently red-hot Aryna Sabalenka playing for the title. Sabalenka had dealt a pretty one-sided blow to perennial clay court star Simona Halep in the semis, while Barty, who'd proven me wrong emphatically by defending her title in Miami, followed up with a somewhat surprising loss to Paula Badosa in Charleston.

In Sunday's championship, a rematch of their quarterfinal in Miami, Sabalenka got off to the stronger start, taking the first set to build an early lead. But Barty came roaring back, blanking her opponent in the second and taking advantage of both her break opportunities in the decider. For good measure, she also teamed up with Brady to take the doubles crown. As the world #1, the win(s) doesn't technically put her back on top -- she's held the top spot since September 2019 uninterrupted -- but now with three trophies already this season, it certainly shows she's shaken off any cobwebs after that nearly year-long absense.

Serbia Open, Belgrade, Serbia

Things didn't go quite as smoothly for the favorite in Belgrade, though. Novak Djokovic, fresh off a shocking loss in the Monte Carlo third round, came to his homeland event -- playing on a court named for him -- looking to make up some ground. And while he got off to a better start than he did last week -- he beat his first two opponents in straightforward fashion -- he did run into a hiccup against 2021 breakout star Aslan Karatsev.

The workhorse Russian, who followed up his Cinderella run in Melbourne -- where he lost to Nole in the semis -- with his first career title at the age of 27 in Dubai, claimed the #3 seed in Serbia, but played well above that level in Saturday's rematch. The win, his third over a top-ten player this year, earned him the chance to play for a second title, not bad for someone who'd spent most of his time on the Challengers and ITF circuits before this year.

But his run would eventually stopped by second seeded Matteo Berrettini, who'd been struggling a bit since his own breakthrough season two years ago. The 25-year-old Italian had a fairly unimpressive follow-up, winning only one match in 2020 before the lockdown and getting upset by players like Tennys Sandgren, Marcos Giron and Daniel Altmaier. He seemed to be pulling things together this year, beating Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut at ATP Cup, before injury sidelined him again.

He was back in form this week, though, scoring an early win against one-time French semifinalist Marco Cecchinato in his opener and then surviving a test from lucky loser Taro Daniel on Saturday. Against Karatsev in the title match, he held strong too, firing off nine aces and winning more than 80 percent of his first serves. In just under two and a half hours, he was the one left holding the trophy, his third on clay and his first in nearly two years.

TEB BNP Paribas Tennis Championship, Istanbul, Turkey

It'd been a much longer drought for Sorana Cirstea, the one-time French Open breakout star who'd won her first and only tour title back in 2008 when she was just 18. Since then she's struggled with form and injury -- shoulder troubles in 2014 helped push her out of the top 200 for some time -- and while she did briefly claw herself back into the top forty, she's been in low double digits for most of the last few years.

She seemed to be getting her bearings back recently though -- she upset Johanna Konta in the second round of the U.S. Open last year, and beat both Belinda Bencic and Petra Kvitova during this year's Melbourne swing. Still ranked outside the top sixty, Cirstea caught a little bit of luck in Istanbul -- the first two seeds she was slated to meet, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Petra Martic, both lost in their first rounds, and the other seeds in her section lost early too. So it wasn't until the final against top seed Elise Mertens that she would be truly tested.

It should have been a straightforward win for the world #17, who's been one of the most consistent players on tour since the lockdown eneded -- Mertens has made the quarters or better at eight events during that period, picking up one trophy and notching wins over the likes of Sofia Kenin, Elina Svitolina, Jessica Pegula and others. But Cirstea was able to get the upper hand over the heavy favorite Sunday, running away with the first set easily and holding tough in the second to win the tiebreak.

The win not only earned her that long-awaited second title, but gave her a third win over a top-twenty player this year. If she can keep it up, she might just be able to make her own way back there as well.

Barcelona Open, Barcelona Spain

And then, of course, there's the win we all knew was coming, but often feared might not.

After his own shocking loss last week in Monte Carlo, Rafael Nadal knew he had to get back to the drawing board if he was going to continue his dominance on the clay this season. Sure, he'd won the title in Barcelona eleven times before, but we know how tenuous even history like that can be, and when he came within one set of notching back-to-back losses on the surface for the first time since 2002, we knew there was a real danger.

He was tested a bunch early, after all, needing three sets to take out two-time champ Kei Nishikori as well, but seemed to be back on track in later rounds. Meanwhile, in the bottom half of the draw, Monte Carlo champ Stefanos Tsitsipas was keeping his streak going strong, dispatching three seeds in a row without losing a set and reaching his second final in as many weeks.

He appeared primed to assert himself as a real contender for the French Open too when he came out with an early break and had multiple chances to increase his lead in the first. But Nadal roared back to claim the first set and had a couple of match points in the second, before Tsitsipas managed to force a decider. The two stayed close in that one too, with the Greek managing his own match point before Rafa scored the decisive break. And after more than three and a half hours of hard hitting tennis, he was finally able to seal the deal and earn his first title this season.

What it means as we head into the last few weeks before Roland Garros has yet to be seen -- after all, Tsitsipas's performance certainly proved he could be a contender in Paris. But for Nadal to reassert himself on the clay shows he is far from ceding control to the next generation.

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Obviously these wins will have different impacts on all these players, but whether they came to those who've been trying to get their footing back or to those who wanted to remind us of how how big a force they are, they all made some big statements to the rest of the fields.

And here's hoping we see a lot more of all these guys winning in the months to come.

Miami Heats Up

I can't be the only one a little surprised that the Miami Open kicked off as planned -- though, I suppose, with my dear James Blake in charge, I shouldn't be so shocked (💕).

And while the primary hope is that everyone there stays safe and healty amid the revelry, as the first premiere tournament since the Australian Open, there is also a lot of top notch tennis to look forward to -- with a slew of top-ranked talent, a couple players riding huge momentum, and even a few we haven't seen in a while.

hi 💙 @MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/M0ppGzYNVt

— NaomiOsaka大坂なおみ (@naomiosaka) March 24, 2021

The Men

I'll start with the men's draw, which may be missing three of its top ive players, but nevertheless boasts some real firepower. Daniil Medvedev takes the court as the top seed, the first time he's hit the court as the #2 player in the world. He's never made it past the third round here, but he's a far different and much more formidable player than he was the last time he was in Miami. With a twenty match win streak that he rode all the way to the Aussie final and a title in Marseille just for good measure, he's certainly deserved his climb, and it's hard to see anyone in his immediate draw derailing him.

Of course, there are players who could surprise us in the top half. Lloyd Harris is coming off a run to the final in Dubai where, as a qualifier, he stunned Dominic Thiem in the second round, and then picked up upsets over three more players. Now at a career high of #52 in the world, he's still a real long shot to make any real play for the title -- but we might have said that about him last week too.

Also in this half of the draw is John Isner who -- meh. After a second round loss at the French Open last fall, he ended the abbreviated season due to injury and then pulled out of the Australian Open this year because of the COVID restrictions. (No comment.) We haven't really seen a lot of the 2018 Miami champion (he beat Alexander Zverev in the final, if you can believe it! -- in the past year, as he's only made it past the second round once. He'll open against qualifier Mackenzie McDonald, who did well to make the fourth round in Melboune last month, and while Isner may be the favorite, he's by no means a sure thing.

On the bottom half of the draw is a man who's had a much more successful 2020 season so far, and had to come out of the depths to do it. Aslan Karatsev, the surprise standout Down Under and brand new trophy-holder at 27, is suddenly ranked one spot ahead of Isner and is far and away at his career best. All eyes will be focused on how he performs now that we actually expect something from him, and while his first opponent, veteran Mikhail Kukushkin, has had some nice results this year, I imagine Karatsev will continue to prove his worth at least a few rounds in.

And finally on the men's side is Thanasi Kokkinakis, who played his first match since 2019 in February. The 24-year-old revealed his battle with anxiety and depression had made the game and life tough for him over the years, but it's nice to see him getting his feet back under him again -- he took Stefanos Tsitsipas to five sets in his homeland Slam's second round. Still ranked outside the top 200 -- a far cry from his previous high of #69 in the world -- he made it through qualies without losing a set and today beat another qualifier to set up a second round against Marton Fucsovics. The barely seeded Hungarian is certainly not one to be dismissed, but there will be a lot of people rooting for an upset here.

The Women

On the women's side, we've already seen some of the favorites in action and a couple have been tested. Top seed and inexplicable world #1 Ashleigh Barty is playing an event ouside of her native Australia for the first time since last February, and it's probably a good place to start. Her run to the title in Miami in 2019 was what set off that magical season that propelled her up the rankings, and what she does in her return will go a long way to quieting my doubts. She struggled in her opener, though, facing a match point against qualifier Kristina Kucova before pulling out the win. With players like Victoria Azarenka, Angelique Kerber -- who double bageled her own opponent today -- and, more immediately, a resurgent Jelena Ostapenko in her section, she's going to have to up her game if she wants to repeat.

Kicking off her run tomorrow will be Sofia Kenin, who followed up a second round loss in her Australian Open defense with a shocking defeat at the hands of then un-ranked Olivia Gadecki in Adelaide. She was nursing a leg injury in Melbourne and eventually had to undergo an apendectomy, so there are explanations for her upsets. Of course, now that she's recovered, we're going to want to see her step up. She'll face off against veteran fan favorite Andrea Petkovic, which will be a good test. The stage her performance sets for the rest of her season, of course, may not be clear -- we've seen her ride roller coasters before -- but a strong showing would still make a big statement.

Then there's Bianca Andreescu, who's only played this event one time in her short but prolific career, reaching the fourth round -- with wins over Kenin and Kerber -- right after her own breakthrough title in Indian Wells in 2019. Sidelined by injury for all of last year, she's had spotty results in her comeback but will try to turn things around against qualifier Tereza Martincova tomorrow. Of course the bigger challenges lie after that -- either former Roland Garros semifinalist Amanda Anisimova, who's had quite a string of bad luck this year, or one-time U.S. Open champion Sloane Stephens, who's had trouble putting together two straight wins recently, most immediately, and more later -- so we'll see what she's got soon.

Meanwhile, Jessica Pegula is coming to Miami at her career high ranking. She followed up her breakout run in Melbourne by making the semis in Doha, ridiculously as a qualifier, and the quarters in Dubai, absolutely dismantling former world #1 Karolina Pliskova in the process. She's barely seeded at this event, but we should be well aware of the damage she could cause. She'd likely face Pliskova again in the third round, but there's no reason to bet against her making at least the quarters. And for someone who's never won a main draw match here, that would be quite the triumph.

And finally there's Ana Konjuh, ranked #20 in the world four years ago when she was just 19, who's been pushed out of the top three hundred after one surgery after three others. She's been struggling to even qualify for events over the last few years -- her last main draw WTA win was back in 2018 -- but as a wildcard here she seem to be back with a vengence. Still just 23, the Croatian opened her run with a win over a very talented Katerina Siniakova and today notched her first top-twenty win in four years over Madison Keys. While she'll be a serious underdog against her next opponent, reigning French Open champ Iga Swiatek, hopefully her performance even thus far is a sign that she's truly on the comeback trail.

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We're still in the very early days of this event, of course, and so much can still happen. But it's great to see so many players back on court. And what happens over the next week-plus could give them all a great opportunity to really shine.

Never Give Up

It's so common in tennis that we spend time focusing on the young phenoms who break through the ranks in their teens or the powerhouses that dominate the sport year after year. With Coco Gauff stealing the spotlight with big upsets or the Big Three winning one Slam after another, it can be difficult to spot those players who come into their own a little big later in life.

And that's what makes some of this week results so remarkable -- it wasn't just the shiny favorites seeing the most success, but a couple workhorses who've been building up to their big wins finally getting a chance at glory.

The moment @AsKaratsev became an ATP Tour CHAMPION 🏆#DDFTennispic.twitter.com/poN9kpMO8H

— ATP Tour (@atptour) March 20, 2021

I'll start in Dubai where, I think it's safe to say, few could have predicted the outcome we got. Wildcard Aslan Karatsev, the undisputed Cinderella of the Australian Open, showed no signs of losing that momentum, dispatching four seeds, including 2020's breakthrough teen Jannik Sinner and nearly-unstoppable countryman Andrey Rublev, on his way to the final. Meanwhile qualifier Lloyd Harris, who'd peaked at a career high #72 last year, came out the gate swining too, notching his first top ten win over #1 seed Dominic Thiem in the second round and then besting Denis Shapovalov in the semis.

But ultimately it was the 27-year-old Russian who walked away with the title. The feat particularly notable, as Karatesev, having spent most of his career on the Challenger and ITF circuits, never played an ATP final before this week. The win will rocket him to the top thirty in the world, not bad for someone who was at a high of #112 at the start of the year. And after all the work he's put in to get here, it sure would be nice to see him stick around.

Over in Monterrey, we have a chance to see something similar. Viktorija Golubic may not have had the splashy success at a Slam that Karatsev did, and she actually has some experience in the winners' circle, with a title in Gstaad back in 2016. But the 28-year-old Swiss has nevertheless been languishing in the triple digits for the last few years and spending a lot of time qualifying for events. She had to do that earlier this month in Lyon, but made her way to the final anyway, and she had to do it again in Mexico. And so far she's taken out sixth seeded Anna Blinkova and eighth seed Ann Li to make her second straight championship match.

In the final tonight, she'll face wünderkind Leylah Fernandez, who ended Guadalajara champion Sara Sorribes Tormo's run in the semis. The 18-year-old Canadian is the favorite here, but Golubic should be able to hold her own -- and, after losing to one teenager in France, she's going to want to flip the script a bit. Either way, having made two straight finals should do a lot to boost her confidence, and might just help her get back to and better than her previous high.

If these guys' performances show us anything, it's that it's never too late to achieve success. And with so much more opportunity to thrive this year, something tells me we haven't yet seen the best they have to offer.

A Golden Opportunity

We're just an hour away from the start of this year's first Australian Open semifinals, and we might just be on the verge of some very historic moments.

The eight players still standing each have a shot at doing something amazing -- whether it's setting a new record or breaking new ground, we're guaranteed to see something very special over the next few days.

And whoever comes out on top will truly have something to celebrate.

Your #AO2021 Women's Singles Final 4 🔒

🇨🇿 Muchova v 🇺🇸 Brady
🇯🇵 Osaka v 🇺🇸 S. Williams@Kia_Worldwide | #Kia | #MovementThatInspires | #KiaTennis pic.twitter.com/PLaHktpaiI

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) February 17, 2021

Let's start with the ladies, as they are the ones kicking things off first. On the top half of the draw we have a first time Major semifinalist taking on a slight favorite on paper, but perhaps a big favorite in practice. Karolina Muchova, who's only ever played the main draw here twice before, only ever winning one match, stunned top seed Ashleigh Barty in the quarters -- that after notching a big win over compatriot Karolina Pliskova a round earlier. Meanwhile Jen Brady, who only had her Grand Slam breakthrough late last year, has been playing like a veteran throughout this fortnight. She hasn't yet faced anyone ranked in the top thirty, though -- her biggest "threat" so far was a struggling world #33 Donna Vekic -- and actually lost her only previous meeting with Muchova in late 2019. Still, the fact that one of these ladies could be playing in her first Major final this weekend shows just how wide open this sport is.

Of course that favorite would be a severe underdog on Saturday, as she will either face 2019 champ Naomi Osaka or 23-time Slam winner Serena Williams who is trying for an eleventh time to make history. What is sure to be a blockbuster match between those two will be the first semi played Thursday, and will certainly set the bar high. Osaka, who has a slight edge in their head-to-head, thanks to that stellar win over Serena the 2018 U.S. Open final, is running a nineteen-match win streak that technically dates back to last February. Serena, meanwhile, has had some hiccups over the last few months, notching some surprising losses during the American hardcourt season -- and she's famously come up short when the stakes were highest for years. But while she looked shaky at points during her Melbourne campaign, she was solid in her win over second seed Simona Halep in the quarters. Could she finally break her jinx here? Well she has to get past Osaka first, but if she does, it'll be hard to stop her.

Your #AO2021 Men's Singles Final 4 🔒

🇷🇸 Djokovic v 🇷🇺 Karatsev
🇷🇺 Medvedev v 🇬🇷 Tsitsipas@Kia_Worldwide | #Kia | #MovementThatInspires | #KiaTennis pic.twitter.com/xejRrmEbfL

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) February 17, 2021

And while the women's draw is a tale of haves and have-nots, things are a lot more unfamiliar for the men. Sure, favorite Novak Djokovic, a winner here a record eight times already, is still alive and kicking, he's faced more challenges than he's used to. An injury in his third round against Taylor Fritz forced him to five sets, and he needed to go four against his next two opponents too. And while his semifinal opponent tonight is by far the lowest ranked player his faced this fortnight, world #114 Aslan Karatsev can absolutely not be overlooked. The qualifier made history as the first man or woman to reach a Major semifinal in his debut -- he's never made the main draw of any Slam before -- and his list of victims is impressive: Diego Schwartzman, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Grigor Dimitrov. Can he add the biggest prize to that list? Well, if Djokovic is still struggling with pain, there may never be a better chance to do it.

The bottom half of the men's draw features two more players looking to make history for themselves. Daniil Medvedev is looking for his second Major final, but this time he's in a much better position to come away with the title -- he did, after all, very nearly do it the last time. The young Russian is now riding a nineteen-match win streaks, with titles in Paris, London, and at the ATP Cup in his belt, and while he had a bit of a hiccup in the third round, going five sets against Marton Fucsovics, he's been largely unstoppable. He'll first face Stefanos Tsitsipas who staged the comeback of his career versus Rafael Nadal in the quarters -- down the first two sets he rallied in four-hour marathon to earn just his second win over the multiple record, but probably his most important. He'll have to overcome another losing record if he wants to make his first Slam final -- he's got a 1-5 record against Medvedev, but he's shown he's able to overcome history, and there may never be a better time to do it.

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Whether we get a first-time champion this weekend or see another record set, we certainly will have a lot to talk about this year. We'll see if the Cinderellas and standouts in Melbourne will be able to keep their momentum up throughout the year, but hopefully, whatever happens, we've only seen the start of what they have to bring.

Never Saw Them Coming

We're getting down to the wire at this year's Australian Open, and like at any good Grand Slam, it's not only those you'd expect to be playing for a spot in the semis. Sure, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams have all battled through injury and have come out on the winning side of things -- so far, at least -- but there are a couple names who have faced big opponents and show no sign of slowing down now.

Here. We . Go.@AsKaratsev gets the crucial break to lead 2-1 in the fifth set 🇷🇺#AusOpen | #AO2021 pic.twitter.com/NZJxKCvLmu

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) February 14, 2021

On the ladies side there are a couple standout players still standing. Maybe the least surprising is 25^th seed Karolina Muchova, though even she's put in a showing that's worthy of note. A quarterfinalist at Wimbledon back in 2019 -- and a decent challenger to Serena at the U.S. Open that year -- she came into last season with a ton of momentum, but couldn't quite capitalize. This year she pulled out of the Gippsland draw with an injury, raising questions about how strong she'd be when the stakes were higher in Melbourne. But so far she's been on point, downing a resurgent in the first round and going on to beat compatriot Karolina Pliskova and an on-fire Elise Mertens after that. They've been tight straight-setters, though, with those last two going nearly two hours each, so she's going to have to turn things up against top-seeded Ash Barty in the next round, but she might just be able to do it.

Meanwhile, top-ranked doubles star Su-Wei Hsieh may have lost her opener in the paired draw, but she's more than making up for it on the singles scene. After stunning Tsvetana Pironkova, my pick for another Cinderella run, she's continued her dominance with wins over 2019 U.S. Open champ Bianca Andreescu and former French Open finalist Marketa Vondrousova. On Tuesday she'll take on third seed Naomi Osaka, one of the favorites to win this event, and will be a serious underdog. But even Naomi's admitted how hard it is to predict Hsieh's next move, which could mean an opportunity for the veteran.

And then there's Jessica Pegula, who's really coming into her own at this event. While the 26-year-old did win her lone title to date in 2019 and make the final last year in Auckland, she's never had much success at the Majors, her best showing a third round appearance in New York this past September, where she had two three-set wins over players ranked out of the top forty. But she opened her Australian Open campaign with a crushing win over a momentum-fueled Victoria Azarenka and on Monday stunned fifth seed Elina Svitolina, her first win over a player ranked in the top ten. The win earns her a date with good friend and fellow American Jen Brady, a woman she beat last year in "Cincinnatti", and while she may be the one without the seed next to her name, she could also have the know-how to cause yet another upset.

On the men's side, there have not surprisingly been fewer surprises, as most of the top seeds remain alive, if not kicking. But there's one notable exception to that, and it's all because of Grigor Dimitrov. The one-time world #3 has had his ups and downs over the years, winning the ATP Championship in 2017, dropping out of the top seventy after first round losses during the 2019 hardcourt season, then stunning Roger Federer at the U.S. Open that summer. He took the 18^th seed in Melbourne, and faced a tough test off the bat, but beat former Major titleist Marin Cilic in straight sets in his opener. He got a little bit of a pass in the third round, when surprise New York semifinalist Pable Carreño Busta retired after losing the first sevent games, but his big win came in the fourth round against last year's finalist and newest member of the Big Boys' Club, Dominic Thiem. After the Austrian came back from two sets down to beat Nick Kyrgios a round prior, he wasn't able to rebound against Dimitrov, losing in three sets and in about two hours. And while the Bulgarian may be the favorite in his next round, he should know better than to rest too easy.

That's because his quarterfinal opponent is, by far, the biggest surprise of the Australian Open this year. Twenty-seven year old Aslan Karatsev has never made the main draw of a Grand Slam before, but qualified here after wins over Brandon Nakashima and Alexandre Muller in Doha. Then, in his Major debut, the 114^th-ranked Russian crushed Egor Gerasimov, losing just one game that match, stunned Diego Schwartzman, and came back from two sets down to young Felix Auger-Aliassime to reach the quarterfinals. He's the first person to do that in his first outing on the big stage since 1996. And the fact that he did it at such a "ripe old age" is even more astonishing -- he's already won more tour-level matches here than he has in his entire career. It's hard to say what Karatsev will do with the pressure of a semifinal hanging before him, but it's safe to say it will be difficult for Dimitrov to figure him out too. And it could end up being the match of this tournament.